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  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  2:39:15 PM
Pivot Matrix with new WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  1:01:00 PM
Regular session closed for equities. I'm going to try and update the Pivot Matrix for new DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY, then post that for the 01:00 Update.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  12:53:45 PM
If the OEX ends the day near the current price, it will have printed a doji. That doji won't be at the top of the recent rise, but it follows a gravestone doji printed Tuesday. We're getting some warning signals here, but we'll have to wait until next week to see if those warning signals play out.

I'm more thankful today than ever, as our nation weathered yesterday's holiday without incident. Have a great weekend, everyone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:51:28 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $6.30 +6.2% .... $6.30 is bid and will look sidelines here on day trade long.

6-minutes to close

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:44:59 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP $6.22 .... will honor break-even stop of $6.20, or look to close out on move back to $6.30.

15-minutes to close

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:38:14 PM
23-minutes to close .... 5-minute stochastics on QQQ $35.40 +0.16% look poised for QQQ to make one last move higher into the close, but needs to hold $35.35. On 5-MRT, session high came at BLUE #5 in what I would consider to be a pretty tight intra-day potential range of trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  12:33:46 PM
What happened with European markets today? The FTSE 100 closed down 18.50 points or 0.42%, at 4342.60, but the CAC 40 trimmed earlier losses. It closed down 6.87 points or 0.20%, at 3424.79. The DAX was flat at 3745.95.

What about P&F charts for the bourses we most watch? The Nikkei is on a P&F sell signal with a downside projected to 9450, but this week's trading has created a low pole reversal. The X column has retraced more than half the previous O column. The FTSE 100 is still on a P&F buy signal with an upside target of 4950.00. The CAC is on a buy signal with an upside target of 3950, but created a bull trap warning on November 19 when it traded one box above resistance, creating that buy signal, and then immediately reversed. The DAX remains on a buy signal, with an upside target of 4300.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  12:23:28 PM
The OEX 521.80-522 zone now appears to be firming up as resistance for the OEX. Strongest close support now appears to be down near 520.50, based on the Keltner channels. As I feared would happen this morning, the OEX is just waffling between support and resistance so far, and we wouldn't have had an opportunity to benefit from an options play. While I believe it likely that the OEX will not achieve new relative highs before first pulling back or consolidating, I don't want to hold an option leaking time value over the weekend if traders might come back Monday morning and give us a better entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:23:25 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $6.31 +6.58% .... Raise stop to break even in day trade bullish trade.

Using VOCL and NTOP intra-day charts for comparisons.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:21:52 PM
VocalTec (VOCL) $6.01 +33.8% ... here's intra-day updated 5-MRT chart of VOCL. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  12:17:53 PM
The p/c ratio is down to .70, VXO 16.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  12:13:19 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP) here's intra-day chart of NTOP. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  12:09:29 PM
Is the small-cap rally over? Perhaps not, but perhaps it's time to be strictly selective about bullish positions in small caps. I've seen several analysts talking about value small caps performing well into next year. When I mentioned earlier today that I was seeing a number of equities that had been basing a long time but were ready to break out, it appeared, most of those were small caps that hadn't yet participated in the strong small-cap gains this year. That finding would have to be balanced against the big gains and in my view exorbitant gains we've seen in some growth small caps this year. When I look at the Russell 2000 in comparison to its ascending regression channel, I note some warning signals that it may need to pull back and regroup or perhaps just trade sideways for a while, falling out of that channel. Here's what I'm seeing: Link So, my theory now is that the Russell might need to trade sideways, breaking out of that channel, while value small caps make some gains and the overbought ones settle down. I'll now be watching to see if that theory plays out. It might be a totally off-the-mark theory, but it now gives me something to test.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  11:29:16 AM
The OEX couldn't quite reach that 522.50 level on its first attempt. Today, I'm watching the daily 5(3)3 stochastics, noting that the fast line is already tipping over from within territory indicating overbought conditions, although there has not yet been a bearish kiss and the stochastics have not yet been tugged out of overbought territory. The 21(3)3's show a tendency to flatten below a descending trendline of lower highs. RSI does the same. The ADX level is 12.35, indicating that we can trust those oscillators (as much as we can ever trust them). The selling pressure line is above the buying pressure line, so there's a negative bias. These oscillators are not yet screaming "sell this minute," but they sure are hissing "watch bullish positions." The last 30-minute candle was a near doji sitting at the top of a climb, too, indicating a possible reversal signal setting up on the 30-minute chart.

We options traders, especially of expensive OEX options, have a quandary, though, because we're going to pay dearly for the benefit of buying any options today and then carrying them through the weekend before we can begin to see what happens next week. I'd rather wait and see what develops, perhaps missing the first few points of a move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  11:15:56 AM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $6.43 +8.4% .... Aside 5-MRT, also have a conventional retracement from 09/19/03 high of $7.79 to recent low of $4.31. This has 38.2% at $5.64, 50% at $6.05, 61.8% here at $6.46, and 80.9% at $7.13.

In relations to conventional retracement, VOCL looks to challenge its 80.9% of $6.62 with session high of $6.40 so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  11:09:50 AM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $6.24 +5.4% ... day trade long here, stop $6.04, target $6.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  11:02:14 AM
The current 522 level is a level of light resistance for the OEX. The five-minute Keltner bands show that 522.50 should be the top of this short-term advance, but the OEX has a way of overshooting those Keltner bands at times. Beyond 522.50, the OEX is soon going to slam into the more significant 523-523.50 zone, and I would think that would be difficult for the OEX to surpass.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  11:00:33 AM
Voice over IP .... Hi Jeff: Very good call on the Voice Over IP stocks.I went long on VOCL at 4.8. What is the news on these stocks to drive them this crazy? Thanks, Jey

Well.... you did better than me early.... news is from positive article today in Wall Street Journal. I thought we'd see a little more of a gap higher pullback than we did, be able to make some coin from and early short, build a profit pad to then look long to the close. Did pull back a bit, but not to target.

Broker Needham also highltighting Z-Tel Tech (ZTEL) $2.86 +85% as an undiscovered name in IP telephony where ZTEL is a name Needham sees as creating a unique Voice over IP strategy and deploys company-owned soft-switches, which should allow ZTEL to serve S.M.E. customers from SDSL and T1 last mile circuits with VoIP and Voice over DSL.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  10:48:40 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .91, a decent jump. VXO is 16.69. That p/c ratio spike could be bullish, but the VXO is still far too low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  10:46:45 AM
The OEX has been engaged in a challenge of the 521.25 resistance and is now slightly above it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:35:17 AM
CIENA (CIEN) $7.08 +0.85% ... did get an upside alert I had set at $7.10 to have upside alert from recent consolidation high. Stock now looks set to challenge recent highs of $7.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:32:58 AM
VocalTec (VOCL) $5.68 +26% ... $&*#@$^ ... stock simply "exploded" and making new session high. Would certainly have rather seen the stock trade $4.51 and bearish intra-day target, then taken a long to target this area.

From here, stock now has further upside to BLUE #6.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:27:50 AM
QQQ $35.35 +0.02% .... here's intra-day chart of QQQ with 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  10:17:29 AM
As I've mentioned before, I use days like today to do research so that I don't feel tempted to micromanage and imagine I'm seeing things I'm not seeing on the intraday charts or acting on the things I might be seeing since they don't mean a thing in a low-volume environment. Today, I'm scanning monthly charts of individual equities, trying to gauge the underlying strength or weakness in the markets. I confess to being a bit confused by what I'm finding, or rather it's the charts themselves that are a bit confused. Here's what I notice: a number of stocks that have been in long basing formations (years long, some of them) at low prices, now approaching their breakout points, a number of stocks that broke out of their basing formations back in March and have made outrageous gains (such as TASR's gains) that really ought to be retraced, and then a number of stocks that have been in big symmetrical triangles that show up only on monthly or weekly charts, with breakouts (one direction or the other) appearing imminent. Clear as mud, isn't it? Some of those stocks look ready to zoom up, some to zoom down, and some to go one direction or another, as yet unknown.

This isn't the only type of research that can be done today, of course. Try out new settings on your indicators. Experiment with an indicator you've never tried. If you can't think of anything else to do, try SharpCharts' Voyeur feature at Link and see what everyone else is watching. This is a great feature, I think. It updates periodically, and you can see all sorts of charts. Hmm. Someone is putting a 20-pma average on the OBV indicator on the NTOP chart. Using that MA on an OBV indicator might be a good thing to try, right?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  10:13:07 AM
GE printing a session low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:12:59 AM
VocalTec (VOCL) $5.11 .... stopped on day trade bearish from $4.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  10:08:41 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,782 +0.02% .... morning low so far has been 9,764.83, and not quite a test of its DAILY Pivot. (see Wed. Index Trader Wrap)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  10:08:28 AM
Ten year notes -4.8 bps, the session low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  10:07:41 AM
VXO is up to 16.83. Makes a lot more sense than the 15.83 prints from Wednesday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  10:03:31 AM
The TRIN is still high at 1.33 as I type, although it's drifting down to the low end of today's range. There are more advancing than declining stocks today, and that number is drifting higher. Meanwhile, the OEX does battle with the overhead resistance. So far, it's a day with just the kind of mixed-up signals we expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  9:58:04 AM
VocalTec (VOCL) $4.75 +4.8% .... stock came down to sesson low of $4.56, then bounce back to RED #1 $4.80.

LOWER bearish stop to $5.11 from $5.21 continue to target $4.51.

May than begin looking for a day trade long if bearish target acheived.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  9:52:47 AM
VocalTec (VOCL) $4.69 +4.43% .... here's intra-day chart of VOCL per day trade bearish .... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  9:50:49 AM
This morning, the 520.60-521.25 S/R zone continues to provide resistance to the OEX. It's approaching first light support, but stronger support lies nearer 519.20 or so, and then nearer 517-518.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  9:45:42 AM
The TRIN is higher this morning, at 1.34 as I type, but switching around quite a bit in volatile early trading.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  9:41:46 AM
VocalTec (VOCL) $4.90 +8% .... day trade short here, stop $5.21, target $4.51.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/28/20,  9:37:47 AM
No weakness whatsoever in metals, with HUI + 4.51 to 247.09 and XAU +1.5 at 109.18.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  9:34:31 AM
The OEX first five minutes spanned from a high of 520.98 to a low of 520.33, with a midpoint at 520.66. Lately, the 520.60-520.65 area has become somewhat important, perhaps replacing the 520.80 level as the lower edge of the S/R zone. The OEX is currently above the midpoint of the first five-minute range, indicating early strength . Let's watch what happens over the next few minutes as the first reversal begins.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/28/20,  9:31:27 AM
Voice over IP stocks are "hot" again today.... EGHT $7.75 +14.5% Link , NTOP $6.11 +3% Link , VTEK $8.45 +14% Link and VOCL $4.84 +9% Link .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  9:28:10 AM
It looks as if we'll start the day with futures slightly underwater, and so with expectations that the OEX might open slightly below Wednesday's 521.21 close. That close occurred at the oft-mentioned 520.80-521.25 S/R zone. Lately that zone has expanded a bit, up to 522. The OEX is above its 60-minute 100/130-pma's and its 21-dma but below the midline of the ascending regression channel that has contained its movements since late May, with that midline now at about 523.50. The last few cycles from the top to the bottom of the channel have seen the OEX miss hitting the top of the channel by a greater and greater percentage, perhaps a sign of decreasing strength and momentum. That makes me question the OEX's ability to climb much above the midline of the channel, or, if it does, to break above recent new highs. Today, then, it might be likely to expect the OEX to waffle between support below at 519.20-519.60 or lower, between 517.80-519, and the overhead resistance, up to 522 and then again at 523-523.50. We're likely going to stand back and watch while that occurs. Unless we have a firm bias today and are willing to clench our teeth and hold on no matter what happens, today isn't going to be a great trading day, I don't think. The expected low volume is going to render technical setups invalid, and I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of false signals.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/28/20,  9:09:36 AM
Good morning. Although our markets were closed yesterday, others weren't, of course. The Nikkei closed almost twenty points higher in Thursday's trading, but opened lower Friday and headed down. Although at one point, the Nikkei was 130 points underwater, it managed to close off that low, down 62.81 points or 0.62%, at 10,100.57. Before the bell, disappointing economic numbers had been released. October's jobless rate climbed to 5.2% from September's 5.1%, while consumer spending fell 1.4%. Industrial production grew 0.8%, a less-than-expected amount, with that disappointment sending many techs and telecoms lower. A report circulated that a regional bank had a negative net worth and speculation arose that the bank would receive public funds. Another economic number showed the consumer price index climbing 0.1% in the last reported month, with that number rising for the first time in four years, according to a Marketwatch.com article.

Most other Asian bourses gained in Friday's trading. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.54% and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.85%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.04%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2.00% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.58%.

Thursday, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 treaded water, closing near the flat line, but the DAX gained 32.01 points. Today, the DAX is giving back a hefty portion of those gains and many other European bourses are underwater, too. The euro surged against the dollar, with that development hitting European exporters. Of special interest to those exporters and to U.S. exporters, too, is the news that the World Trade Organization postponed the showdown over the steel tariffs imposed by President Bush, tariffs that the WTO could decide to label illegal. Bush's administration asked for the postponement, raising speculation that the administration might take steps on its own to end or change the policy.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has lost 17.40 points or 0.40%, to trade at 4343.70. The CAC 40 has lost 22.62 points or 0.66%, to trade at 3409.04. The DAX has lost 27.46 points or 0.73%, to trade at 3717.53.

In Russia, oil giant Yukos was back in the news, with the merger of Yukos and smaller competitor Sibneft called off. The Yukos CEO was arrested last month, prompting a sell off that took the Moscow Times from a close at 7659.40 on October 17 to a closing low of 5824.89 on October 30. Today, the Moscow Times traded up 0.66% despite the reappearance of Yukos in the news.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/28/20,  9:09:21 AM
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