Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  4:03:41 PM
A major trading point for today is the Russell-2000. It dropped -8.42 for -1.52%. It was the biggest loser for the day and marks a very significant change in sentiment. When the Russell leads the rest of the indexes follow.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  4:01:41 PM
The bulls escaped one serious bullet today. The Dow managed to remain in positive territory despite the big sell off. Had it gone negative the sentiment would have been much worse.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:55:48 PM
When you get a chance check out a chart on Microstrategy (MSTR) Nice recovery but all is not what it seems. They did a reverse split. Check out the stock price in Feb-2000 after the reverse split.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:53:12 PM
CECO $39.92, -$15.00, traders should look at this disaster and think what would have happened to them without a stop loss. Never assume any stock is bullet proof.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:51:01 PM
Looks like the selling pressure equalized as we near the close. The Dow has found support at 9880 and exactly where it found support this morning on the 10:00 dip. If this level breaks 9850 is the next pause point.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:38:11 PM
Initial market on close orders mixed with a BUY side bias

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:34:58 PM
Five minutes until the market on close orders and we could still go either way. With the Dow back under 9900 and the Nasdaq -30 points from the high we could see some dip buying but we could also see some more liquidation if the funds are getting nervous.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  3:28:32 PM
GE to a fresh session low.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  3:23:49 PM
15 min until market on close orders and they could go either way. With the Nasdaq negative that puts more pressure on the Dow but it appears to be holding.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  3:02:27 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,070.73 , QQQ = $35.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  2:58:20 PM
Treasuries closed ..... SPX = 1,070.31 , QQQ = $35.80

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  2:52:27 PM
Bond market set to close in 9 minutes.

10-year finding some selling today with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) higher by 2.7 bp at 4.406%.

Monday's trade saw selling in Treasuries find stock rallying to their close.

Yesterday's trade saw buying in Treasuries find stocks lower to 04:00 close.

With QQQ $35.79 +0.25% back lower here, might be alert to late hour bounce back near.... $35.90. Just a thought based on recent couple of days trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  2:35:11 PM
General Motors (GM) $46.05 +6.42% ... have received several e-mail regarding my PnF comments in 11:00 AM EST Update. The Stockcharts.com PnF chart Link is adjusted for quarterly dividends, while my comments at 11:00 AM was from the Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. PnF chart, where they do NOT adjust past supply/demand for quarterly dividend.

Still... today's trade at $46.00 does have the Dorsey chart (I prefer to not adjust for dividends) breaking above its bearish resistanct trend today.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  2:29:26 PM
MSFT is certainly NOT contributing to the 1.43% gain in the GSO software index. As a matter of fact MSFT appears to be rolling over again with yet another failed rally at its simple 200-dma.

The strength in the software sector belongs to Oracle (ORCL), which is up more than 5% on an upgrade.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/3/200,  2:25:44 PM
CECO has been halted for trading amid allegations from a former employee that officials at the school acted illegally and improperly to inflate enrollment and boost the bottom line, allegations that have triggered an examination by a national accrediting agency.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  2:15:34 PM
QQQ $35.98 +0.78% .... got too clever/tight with that bullish stop of $34.89 didn't I? Here's a quick update on QQQ intra-day. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  2:06:22 PM
Gold has gone positive, now up .60 at a session high of 405.20. Silver is still negative. HUI -2.1 at 254.83, XAU -.3 at 111.99.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  1:48:50 PM
Afternoon sector update...
Winners
________________________
GSO software index: +1.58%
NWX networking index: +1.15%
DFI defense index: +1.00%

Losers
________________________
OSX oil services index: -0.80%
DJUSHB homebuilders: -0.74%
XAU gold & silver: -0.49%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  1:41:52 PM
The put to call ratio is down to .89, VXO 16.16. 9924 YM continues to hold, but it could well be setting up for yet another of the umpteen whipsaws we've had on the elusive short cycle downphase. Wavelet bounce trying to get going again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  1:35:17 PM
QQQ $35.89 +0.56% ... stopped on bullish profile from $36.03.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  1:34:51 PM
Bernanke cueing up a fresh repo blast on the Fed Etch-a-Sketch: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  1:13:35 PM
Buy program prem. alert ... SPX = 1,073.58 , QQQ = $36.02

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  1:06:21 PM
The put to call ratio drops to .93, VXO 15.98.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  1:02:54 PM
Bernanke and Al Green: "A job well done, Rookie." Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  12:55:45 PM
GE is back in the red, where it belongs, -.08%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  12:51:39 PM
Fumble manager seen at the corner of Water and Wall:

"Naz 2000?! Buy em!"

Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:47:54 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.75 +1.75% ... finally sees the $34.75 trade.

I'm beginning to tie AA in with the futures. How about you?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:44:23 PM
Incredible... still monitoring December S&P futures (sp03z) and while I'm 10-minute delayed, they've been marking a 5-minute close at 1,073.30 and our fitted PINK 0% retracement. If they can close'em higher, could add another 5-points quick.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  12:41:48 PM
They've captured flag. Yeehaw.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:40:00 PM
QQQ 1.3 million shares traded in just last minute!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:38:08 PM
QQQ $36.03 +1% .... day trade long here, stop $35.89, target $36.20.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  12:35:22 PM
One of the better performers today is General Dynamics (GD). The stock has broken its short-term trend of lower highs and added 3.5% after Bank of America upgraded the stock to a "buy" and raised their price target to $95. Shares of GD are currently trading under resistance at $85.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:34:28 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.67 +1.5% ... stopped on day trade long at $34.67.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  12:31:09 PM
Current OI put play Kohl's (KSS) has reached a new 14-month low after Bank of America downgraded the stock from a "buy" to a "neutral". There is growing concern over KSS's sales growth and we're seeing volume pick up on these declines.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  12:28:55 PM
The housing sector is under a tiny amount of profit taking. The DJUSHB is down a couple of points, which is less than half of a percent. Shares of LEN are down $1.40 back under the $100 level after being downgraded to a "buy" (Must have been a "strong buy").

Current OI call HOV is still trading sideways, which is quite a feat at these lofty levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:23:36 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.73 +1.69% .... raise bullish stop to $34.67 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:20:08 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.74 +1.67% ... OK... who's "selling early?"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:16:43 PM
Market Internals as of 12:00 PM EST. Link

Might be of use per Keene's 12:02:11 post in the futures monitor. I'm not a "waver" so maybe Keene can discuss.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:09:50 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.70 +1.6% ... on the move. It's questionable if I got the $34.41 entry posted in time, but trading BLUE #3 ($34.68) here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:08:04 PM
ADC Telecom (ADCT) $2.88 +18.3% ... Cancel day trade long for $2.70 entry.

Just never got the pullback kiss for entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  12:00:42 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.50 +1.02% ... here's quick shot of AA with 5-MRT. I left trend in place. Link

Thinking if AA could trade BLUE #4 yesterday in mixed major index trade, then should have a shot at BLUE #4 in more bullish major index trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  11:54:13 AM
Alcoa (AA) $34.41 +0.76% .... day trade long here, stop $34.22, target BLUE #4 of $34.75.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  11:52:56 AM
I wouldn't recommend it as a day trade but a speculative player might want to evaluate Books-A-Million (BAMM). Wow, it's been a long time since this Internet stock had much attention but shares broke out to new 3 1/2 year highs yesterday on very strong volume. I can't find any news to explain the surge. Shares have done pretty well this year, up to $5.27 from its early 2003 lows near $2.00.

This morning the stock pull back in profit taking but bulls bought the dip at $5.00 support. Now the stock is back on the up swing. It's P&F chart is suggesting a price target of $7.50 to $8.00.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  11:46:45 AM
I also noticed that AmerisourceBergen (ABC) displayed some relative strength yesterday. While the markets were drifting slowly lower shares of ABC were breaking out to new relative highs. The low today was just above the $65 mark, which should be round-number support. This might be worth placing on your watch list.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  11:45:01 AM
Dec. S&P Futures (sp03z) 1,073.30 +0.6% ... While I'm 10-minute delayed, getting upside alert here per last night's Index Trader Wrap.

Also received another buy prog. prem. alert. SPX = 1,071.43

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/3/200,  11:44:32 AM
Jane, Years ago, I was the beancounter in charge of an oil company's joint venture in China. A couple of observations...China has likely but unproven (in the accounting sense) reserves that could compete with Saudi Arabia's in terms of size. They simply have no ability to produce them. The domestic production they do have is so crude that they damage the wells and leave large percentages of the deposit unrecoverable. Many of their work methods are 15th century. We watched a pier being constructed by men carting woven baskets of earth because full employment takes precedence over efficiency. I could go on. They will have to deal with their petrochemical issues if they are going to be a viable player in the world economy. Whether they choose to buy it with weapons or allow westerners to make a profit and in so doing help them, remains to be seen. Make no mistake though, the Chinese are not communists, they are profit seeking totalitarians. That should make you shudder. Jim

Where else but the Market Monitor do you get commentary like this. Thank you so much Jim.

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  11:42:14 AM
Education stocks are on the move again (higher) and Corinthian Colleges (COCO) broke out through resistance at $65.00 yesterday. Shares are down about 42 cents at the moment but a bounce from $65.00 might be worth a short-term trade. Whatever you do, don't look at the weekly chart. You might get dizzy!

 
 
  James Brown   12/3/200,  11:39:23 AM
Traders looking for a put play may want to keep an eye on Four Seasons (FS). The stock has recently produced a failed rally at the $55 level while yesterday's action produced a high-volume drop. There hasn't been a lot of follow through yet with the markets green today but this stock could be a target for more profit taking. Shares trade at a very rich multiple compared to its peers and the stock had more than doubled from its $25 lows earlier this year. A simple 38.2% retracement from $25 to $60 should be close to $47.00. A 50% retracement would be near $42.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:57:33 AM
10:57am SEC UNANIMOUSLY APPROVES PROPOSAL TO END LATE TRADING

I was under the impression that it was already illegal, and in any case, clearly unethical. I wonder what else the SEC is going to do for us today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:57:23 AM
ADCT $2.84 +16.3% .... has seen trade at BLUE #4 of $2.89, now trading BLUE #3.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/3/200,  10:53:39 AM
China has surpassed Japan as the No. 2 petroleum user after the U.S. Its oil imports for the first 10 months of 2003 are up 30% from the year-earlier period and are expected to double to some four million barrels a day by 2010. Some say China, which doesn't have large oil fields, might start competing with the U.S. for influence in the Middle East and trade weapons technology to terrorist states. On the other hand others think China will realize it has a vital interest in keeping the region stable.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:53:19 AM
QQQ ... updated intra-day chart Link

Really seems to be pegging the zones this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:48:46 AM
Newsflash! SEC Chief finds mutual funds scandal "deeply disturbing."

Helllohhhh...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:43:24 AM
Comcast Corp. (CMCSK) $30.49 +0.39% Link .... Evening news here in Denver reported Comcast getting ready to raise my cable TV rate.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:38:59 AM
ADCT $2.86 +16.8% ... @$*#@( ... here's a 60-minute chart, where I've placed our 5-MRTS on it, but also tie in some historical levels of trade with trend. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:33:10 AM
The put to call ratio has dropped to .97. Looks like someone big bought a lot of puts at the top.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  10:30:43 AM
If you read my market wrap last night you may have been as surprised as I was with the recent December and January market action. While December is seen to be a bullish month over the last 50 years the last four years have not been kind. But that pales in comparison to the January drops.

I would also note that three of the last four Januarys have seen significant losses. 2003, nearly -900 points off its highs, 2002, nearly -800, 2001, -550. 2000 had two separate drops in January of -600 and -1050 points. A very volatile month.

If you are holding a large portfolio from the bear market lows the urge to lighten up soon has got to be growing in intensity. Nobody in their right mind would want to risk a -1000 point drop the first week of January. This makes December more volatile and suggests we are not going to see any big gains over the next couple weeks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:27:47 AM
I'm already exhausted!

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/3/200,  10:27:33 AM
The SEC is starting a campaign of Mutual Fund reform with a recommendation that funds appoint chief compliance officers and increase their internal monitoring to catch traders not sticking to the rules. Two other proposed changes would ban after-hours trading and implement rules requiring companies to more fully disclose their fund's policies on preventing market-timing speculators.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:25:25 AM
QQQ $35.66 ... closing day trade bearish from $35.88, target $35.66.

Sessiion low so far $35.65

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:24:40 AM
ADC Telecom (ADCT) $2.79 +14.3% .... trading BLUE #2 here. Didn't get the pullback to $2.70 at this point, but trade here looks bullish for entry at $2.70. Stock could run strong after morning gap above downward trend from mid-October.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:19:13 AM
ADC Telecom (ADCT) $2.76 +13% Link ... Day trade long but look for pullback to $2.70, stop $2.60, target $2.97.

see 09:41:21

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:14:19 AM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,069.19 , QQQ = $35.83.

I've missed one or two other buy program prem. alerts, but they've been coming quick. A lot of institutional action early.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:10:35 AM
QQQ $35.79 +0.25% ... at this point, session low has been $35.74, and this is backfill of morning gap higher. Most likely finds some shorts from late yesterday afternoon looking to cover, give some morning firming here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:07:57 AM
QQQ $35.77 +0.19% ... sliced through WEEKLY R1, let's see if it will get a 5-minute bar close below.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:07:02 AM
QQQ $35.80 +0.26% ... testing WEEKLY R1 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:05:00 AM
The opening put to call ratio was 1.27. Careful, bears.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:03:12 AM
QQQ $35.88 ... here

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:02:03 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,070.31 , QQQ = $35.87.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:01:55 AM
10:02am U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS 60.1% V 64.4%

10:03am U.S. NOV. ISM EMPLOYMENT 54.9% VS. 52.9

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  10:01:39 AM
ISM Purchasing and supply grew at a lower rate than October. Backlog of orders declined and new orders dropped -4%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  10:01:05 AM
QQQ $35.88 +0.51% ... day trade bearish here, stop $36.08, target $35.67.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  10:00:10 AM
ISM 60.1

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  10:00:03 AM
ISM Services for November = 60.1 - (est 64.0-64.5, last 64.7)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:59:57 AM
QQQ $35.94 +0.67% .... here's intra-day chart of QQQ. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:57:46 AM
Buy Program Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,071.69 , QQQ = $35.97

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  9:56:27 AM
The Fed announces a 2.5B overnight repo for a 1.5B drain. ISM data due now.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  9:51:49 AM
The ISM Services number at 10:AM is expected to be in the 64.0 range. This is a little lower than the range it has been in since July (65.1, 65.1, 63.3, 64.7) With the ISM Manufacturing blowout on Monday the odds are good we will exceed the estimates. If we come in below 64.0 I think it would be viewed negatively as a crack in the recovery foundation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:49:40 AM
QQQ $35.90 +0.6% .... almost identical "zones" of support/resistance on intra-day chart today as found yesterday. Found early resistance at $36.00, may want to pull back into $35.80 area in early going.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:41:21 AM
ADC Telecom (ADCT) $2.71 +11% ... higher after reporting Q4 (Oct) pro forma EPS of $0.02, which was 2 cents better than consensus. Company said revenues fell 12.6% year-over-year to $192.9 million, but was still ahead of consensus' $186.3 million. For Q1 2004 sees loss of $0.01 to breakeven, which was inline with consensus and revenues of $170-$180 million versus consensus of $182.7 million.

Both Needham and Deutsche upgraded the stock this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/200,  9:22:52 AM
Thanks, Jim. I'm signing off now. Have fun everyone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/200,  9:21:52 AM
I think I agree with Jim's commentary in his wrap last night. I think traders are so fixated on Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 2000 that they're not really going to give up until that happens and let the markets dip too far. For a while now, I've been wondering if we don't need a buying crescendo to shake out all the weak shorts before the markets can successfully retrace to a stronger base just as we sometimes need a selling crescendo to shake out the weak longs before markets can successfully climb. As Keene just wrote this morning, we're too near next strong resistance for us to consider a long play here, unless you're good at those intraday scalps.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/200,  9:20:39 AM
Linda is under the weather today and will not be posting in the monitor. We wish her a speedy recovery.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:16:55 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/200,  9:05:00 AM
Earlier headlines. Looks like our little uptick in rates is not without consequence:

7:00am 12/03/03 U.S. MORTGAGE BANKERS WEEKLY INDEX DOWN 11.7%

7:00am 12/03/03 U.S. MORTGAGE BANKERS WEEKLY PURCHASE INDEX DOWN 3.9%

7:00am 12/03/03 U.S. MORTGAGE BANKERS REFINANCE INDEX DOWN 19.6%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/200,  6:58:12 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei traded mostly in the green in Wednesday morning's trading, but was in the red through the afternoon session. The Nikkei closed down 83.76 points or 0.80%, at 10,326.39, the low of the day. Banks and many tech and telecom stocks dropped. After yesterday's report of U.S. auto sales, auto manufacturers were mixed.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted closed down 0.45%, but South Korea's Kospi was flat, up 0.07%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.49%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.68%.

Most European bourses traded higher. Although automakers were mixed in Japan, some credited the automakers with leading the European bourses higher. Porsche was a particularly strong gainer, although some analysts gave mixed reviews of their sales figures, saying that most of those strong sales were mostly limited to one particularly popular model, the Cayenne SUV. Mining stocks and GlaxoSmithKline also gained.

Overnight, the euro hit record highs against the dollar. Pressured by that record high against the dollar, many European bourses traded in the red early in the trading day before climbing into the green. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had gained 6.90 points or 0.16%, to trade at 4385.80. The CAC 40 has gained 16.66 points or 0.48%, to trade at 3488.52. The DAX has climbed 16.71 points or 0.44%, to trade at 3825.97.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:47:50 PM
VocalTec (VOCL) $5.40 +8.21% ... here's a 5-minute bar chart of VOCL with 5-MRT on it. Link

Remember yesterday's MM at 11:09:36 and 02:20:49 notes of $4.90? What the heck is going on at $4.90?????

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:27:00 PM
Alcoa (AA) a few responses....

1)I day traded AA today, made a little money, but it is a plus for the day while waiting for something else to do. Keep up the suggestions.

2) Hi Jeff I do quite a bit of trading and certainly did take advantage of AA ..... i like when things like that are brought to my attention ..... i play it with tight stops ... so made a buck with it actually traded it twice ...... on a pullback went in again ...... but NO u did not waste ur time believe me i hope there were more like me ..... I hope that ur staff will also look at small caps more often for trades .... NAVR is one that i trade often ...... as one example ......

3) jeff i was out of my office most of the day and didn't take this particular trade. BUT, i'd have no prob taking it (or similiar) type stock in the future. over the last couple years i've had some decent success scalping/-overnight trading "old economy" stocks. so feel free to recommend them as you see fit.

4) From Jim Brown: I thought it was too expensive for such a small target. I would be interested to see how many people respond that they traded it. VOCL or something like you did last week should draw a lot more interest.

(Jeff B)... OK... it looks like I wasn't wasting time here are some quick responses to the above...

1) This was my feeling.... wasn't real "sure" about today's trade, but with AA at new highs and overhead supply limited, AA still has a nice bullish vertical count of $42.50, where on a day like today, stock looked to buck the early morning broader market weakness.

2) Here too, a decent stock where in a mixed session, might have allowed for some tighter stops. A trader that can trade AA twice during a session is what I consider a VERY active day trader (grin)... As for smaller caps, I can't prove this, but past profiles for day trading on smaller caps, has me sensing that there is a market monitor subscriber, that is taking the other side of some trades (bullish and bearish) and is pushing a stock around to trigger profiled stops. I made a note of this a couple of weeks ago in TRMB.(now see #3 and #4)

3) "old economy" is often thought of as "boring." Hey, I'd have been a genius yesterday (Monday) with an AA profile. Check out Monday's 5-minute bar. Similar to this trader, I've often found these "old economy" stock being a sleeper stock that wins out on a particular day.

4) Now for Jim.... (grin)... and I'm guessing that his comment is representative of MANY traders that don't trade higher priced stocks. This is not a criticism at all, but I want to drive home a point on a stock being too expensive. How do you day trade? (this is for everyone, not just Jim)... is it based on 1,000 shares, or $5,000 ($10,000, $50,000 using day trade margin?) Think of day trade in percentage terms. If I day traded approximately $5,000 in VOCL on Friday, is that any different than 150 shares of AA at $34.00? If a trader felt more "certain" about a bullish profit being found in AA over VOCL, without taking on as much risk, or experiencing volatility when the major indices (like today) were rather mixed, a day trader might actually feel better odds of booking a gain in AA over VOCL, but it really depends how you trade. If you trade ONLY in terms of order size (number of shares) and not capital size (dollar invested)

My point is... if I told you (and I can't) that in a mixed session market you could trade a $34 stock and stand a good chance of making 1.1% to a bullish target, with risk of losing 0.5% in a $34 stock, or trade a $5 stock and stand a good chance of making 7.5%, with risk of losing 8%, what's the better day trade?

It's arguable, but slap your 5-MRTs on AA and VOCL Link today, and check out BOTH stock at 10:00, when AA was profiled for a bullish trade setup. This is "funny" because I was looking at VOCL early this morning for a potential bullish trade, but simply didn't like that gap lower open, where in a mixed session, I was thinking for a more volatile and often thin stock in a mixed session had greater risk to it from a day-trade bullish perspective.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/2/200,  9:04:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

On review, just now noting today's 02:00 PM EST sell program (1,069.30) came about 20-minutes after SPX traded MONTHLY R1 of 1,070.83.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/2/200,  9:04:33 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives