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  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  5:35:59 PM
YUM! Brands (YUM) $34.78 -0.4% Link ... reaffirms 2003 EPS guidance of $2.03, before special items, which is in line with consensus of $2.03 per share. Company also updated Q1 2004 guidance of at least $0.43 per share, which is in line with consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  5:07:43 PM
QQQ quick notes for DAILY pivot levels...

S2= 34.84, S1= 35.24, P = 35.47, R1 = 35.87, R2= 36.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  5:00:54 PM
After hours trade question ... Jeff: I didn't take your bullish trade in the qqq, but with the qqq back at the right shoulder, what do you think about going long here at $35.30?

Hmmm... I wouldn't at this point. My basic belief is that after-hours is not a necessarily a true representation of the market, as most market particpants (especially good mutual fund companies) aren't around to cast their votes. It's with this thought that for a "true" reverse head/shoulder pattern to develop, the QQQ has to trade somewhere around the $35.30 level during the regular session anyway. With that thoughT, why not wait until the market open?

Anticipating another question as to ... "why would you buy the QQQ at $35.40 if for the reverse h/s pattern develop, you could have waited for tomorrow and saw what happened?" I could have waited, but I wasn't certain of what INTC might say, or give guidance of, and I certainly didn't have a real good feel for what a market reaction might be. I still don't. Remember AMAT's mid-quarter update several months ago? After-hours had the stock getting crushed lower on CEO's comments, then the very next day, an interview he gave seemed just the opposite. If memory serves me correct, stock finished up 4% the next day. I don't put a lot of weight in after-hours trade as a lot can be said, or figured out by the next day's open.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  4:49:24 PM
JetBlue (JBLU) $31.38 -4.1% ... lower at $30.31 after cutting Q4 operating margin guidance to 13-14%. Company saying despite higher fuel prices, costs still in line with prior guidance, but currently faced with challenging revenue environment dut to capacity additions resulting in lower average fares.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  4:33:18 PM
QQQ ... suspicious bid here at $35.40 after extended hours low of $35.25. (see 16:24:15) chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  4:31:39 PM
Intel (INTC) $33.54 +0.59% ... trading $32.53 in after-hours here. Company announced it is taking a $600 million, or $0.06 per share charge in Q4 for goodwill impairment related to its Wireless Communications and Computing Group. This has been a soft spot mentioned in prior mid-quarter calls and earnings announcement and probably calling it quits on some charges in Q4 to offset gains in other areas of business.

I'm sure it will be addressed in tonight's call.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/4/200,  4:31:00 PM
SNDK getting killed in after hours on the INTC news.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/4/200,  4:30:35 PM
JBLU just warned - very tough environment, revenue dropping

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  4:25:58 PM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $2.15 +1.89% ... $2.15 in extended hours.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  4:24:15 PM
QQQ $35.63 +1.07% ... lower in after-hours at $35.31. Don't freak out, not yet... Here's the QQQ intra-day chart, where I quickly show the potential reverse head/shoulder patter development. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/4/200,  4:13:24 PM
INTC saying rev $8.5-$8.7B prior range was $8.1B-$8.7b
Gross Margin 62% All other guidance unchanged.

This is exactly what the street expected. They thought they would raise the lower end of the range and leave the upper end unchanged. This was probably a disappointment. INTC trading down -70 cents.

Conference call begins at 5:30 ET

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  4:03:31 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
12/04: Entered a bearish OEX trade at OEX 526.49.
12/04: Stopped at 528.01.
Result for that day: 1.51 OEX points against our position.
For those who are interested, the December 525 put was 5.50 x 5.80 at the time of our entry and was 4.90 x 5.10 at the time of our exit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  4:00:55 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The Swing Trade model was just stopped out of our OEX bearish trade with a trade at 528.01. We entered at 526.49, so the OEX moved 1.51 points against our position. Before entering, I made sure that we were seeing weakness in correlating indices, a rollover in the 5(3)3 daily stochastics, a move below the 30-minute 21-pma (and subsequently below the 60-minute version), a spike up in the $TRIN above its own version of a symmetrical triangle, declining advdec, and . . . well, you get the picture. And the play was stopped by one penny.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:57:50 PM
Sirius (SIRI) $2.15 +1.89% ..... would not be opposed to holding overnight, but would prefer a trader not be holding 20,000 shares.

A day trader that might be holding the stock, that has already placed a hard "stop market" stop loss with his/her broker.... if you are around in the morning's to watch the stock (I will be, I'm holding over) I would cancel the hard order with the broker, then let the stock open for trade in the morning, assess things, then follow with a refined stop.

Again... my tolerance for risk, and trade holdings may be different than yours, and if you have a stated business plan that says no overnight hold, as you are running a very risk averse day trade account, then follow your rules, don't bend them.

While I hate losses as much as anyone, a trader that day trades with a stop at $2.12 conceded that type of loss when the buy order was placed. Not that $2.15 and a 4-cent per share hit is good, but it is less than $2.12 to a stop, and you rest well tonight, and are ready for tomorrow with a refreshed mind.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:55:27 PM
QQQ $35.66 +1.16% .... did I say swing trade... or day trade?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:50:10 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It looks as if our position may be in danger of being stopped in an end-of-day push, but if it's not, it's my intention to hold the position overnight. That's a risky decision and one that each participant should consider carefully. If we're not stopped, check back tomorrow morning, because I may temporarily widen the stop to account for early morning volatility.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:43:36 PM
The BIX is now dropping below its 30-minute 130-pma, at the low of the day now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:38:19 PM
While the SOX is well below its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, the COMPX now rises to test its 30-minute 100-pma again after having fallen beneath it earlier today. The BIX has turned back down from its test of that average, however, and is headed back for a test of the 30-minute 130-pma. As Jeff has pointed out in the past, I'm thinking that the OEX can't get too far without the participation of the BIX, but so far it isn't too hampered by the weaker performance of the BIX, at least as measured by their behaviors with respect to these averages.

 
 
  Keene Little   12/4/200,  3:28:35 PM
Jeff, I'm not sure who's going to get swamped by the wave here. I'll either catch the wave or it's going to throw me mercilessly into the coral rocks just beneath the surface.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:22:20 PM
Have I jumped into Keene's wave? .... see futures monitor (15:20:57)

While a very short-term pattern, I am also seeing the potential of a reverse h/s pattern on the 5-minutes. $35.65 might be the neckline, head just developed today, with yesterday's late trade the left shoulder.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:21:38 PM
The OEX met the minimal upside target predicted by the double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart, a second sign of short-term strength. It's now challenging the 30-minute 21-pma as well as the descending trendline off yesterday's high. I'm keeping the official stop at its current level because it's just over today's high, but worried participants can use a tighter stop just over the 30-minute 21-pma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:20:54 PM
QQQ $35.39 +0.39% .... here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:18:51 PM
Swing trade long the QQQ $35.45 +0.56% with an overnight hold. Entry at $35.39, stop $34.95, target $35.99.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:16:39 PM
The move up started while I was uploading my last post.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:16:14 PM
The OEX did confirm that five-minute double-bottom formation that I mentioned earlier, a first sign of short-term strength. The OEX has been hovering just above that confirmation level (525.65) ever since, with a gap up from that level so that we know it was important. We'll have to see if it's going to meet the minimal upside target at 526.65 or so. Five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics move toward overbought levels, but the candlesticks look as if they're gathering strength for a move higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:15:34 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,066.8 , QQQ = $35.40

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  3:05:17 PM
Whether you're bullish or bearish traders might want to keep an eye on Eli Lilly (LLY). The stock has been in a wide rising channel, punctuated with three bull flags, since early October. Currently the stock is nearing the bottom of its channel. A breakdown under $68.00 would break price support and probably break through the bottom of the channel. A move back above $70 and bulls can buy the bottom of the channel.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  3:03:54 PM
The SOX did bounce after hitting the minimal downside target predicted by this morning's "b" distribution pattern and the BIX did bounce from the test of the 30-minute 130-pma, with that bounce now taking the BIX back up to test the 100-pma. Each of these indices faces overhead resistance soon, with the SOX now being presumed to have a negative tenor since it's below those key averages. Meanwhile, the OEX will soon face its 30-minute 21-pma at 526.80, also the location of a descending trendline that formed off yesterday's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  3:03:22 PM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $2.15 +1.89% ... quick review of intra-day shows session low still of $2.13, so no trigger on our intra-day stop loss of $2.12. With one-hour left in today's trade, will lower bullish target to $2.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  2:57:52 PM
Cancel day trade short in the QQQ (13:09:30) for entry at $35.45. Never did get the slight bounce back higher, and QQQ recently tested target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  2:44:00 PM
The OEX five-minute chart shows a possible double-bottom forming, with the confirmation level at 525.65. If confirmed, the upside target would be about 526.65 or so. We can now watch first to see if the double-bottom is confirmed (first sign of strength or weakness, depending on whether it is or not) and then whether the upside target is met (second sign of strength or weakness).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  2:40:53 PM
GE to a new session low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  2:37:21 PM
Linda, add that to my DJX and GE puts, and YM short...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  2:36:34 PM
Jonathan, it's my fault that the YM won't drop. A while ago, I bought a December put position on DD.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  2:33:45 PM
The SOX failed from its test of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's this morning. While testing those averages, it formed a "b" distribution pattern. Based on the downside predicted by that "b" distribution pattern, between now (505.33)and 500, the SOX should be hitting that minimal predicted downside, so we should be aware of the possibility of a bounce among SOX stocks at any time now. The BIX turned down from its 30-minute 21-pma earlier today and is now bouncing slightly after hitting its 30-minute 100-pma. That sets us up for a bounce from the BIX stocks, too. I still expect a rollover even in the event of a bounce. If these two indices don't bounce from their separate tests of support, then I would think a plummet would steepen. (Note: As I typed, the BIX began slipping back beneath its 30-minute 100-pma, and headed down to test its 130-pma, now only a little over a point beneath the current BIX level.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  2:17:28 PM
I've gotten no chart feeds in the past 20-minutes or so.

day traders should stick with entry and exit points as outlined here, as I'm a bit blind.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  2:14:32 PM
We should now expect a retest of the violated OEX 30-minute 21-pma, with that average now just above our entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  2:10:12 PM
Looking for technical assesment on SNDK and AZO

Technically, they're both getting trashed. More specifically, AZO is right at daily support, and if it cracks 90, a fresh daily cycle downphase should take it down to next support at 85. Next stop is just north of 78. This is a failure from a lower high, and is a possible head and shoulders failure targeting the low 70's. As for SNDK, it's killed enough bears this year so that support should be thin on the way down. It's oversold on the daily and trending, and if it doesn't bounce from the 65 level, 60 is the next stop, with next confluence in the 46 area.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  2:01:40 PM
It's a bit cheap to play options on but Avaya (AV) is trading at its lowest level in six weeks. The stock has fallen strongly from the $14 level but is holding above support at $12.00. Shares have broken their simple 50-dma for the first time since April. The stock was started with a "buy" this morning by First Albany.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  2:00:54 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 528. That's still a wide stop, but less than $0.50 over the day's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:58:44 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX drops rapidly toward the 30-minute 100-pma, currently at 523.25. I suggest that those who are in this play for a short daytrade type of play consider an automatic exit at that point, or at least a profit exit on part of their positions. I expect a bounce to begin by that point if not before. Stay tuned for a new stop.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:58:18 PM
If you just heard CECO is getting pummeled under concerns that its earnings numbers may be fabricated. Shares have dropped more than $20 in two days on extreme volume. Currently trading under $35.

This weakness in CECO is affecting its rivals. Shares of COCO are down 10 points in two days while APOL is only down about 5 points.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:49:47 PM
More breakdowns...yesterday we put Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) on the watch list for a breakdown under its simple 200-dma and support at $30.00. It's already happened. Shares have some support at $27.50 and stronger support at $25.00.

This entire niche of dollar stores has been exceptionally weak the last several weeks. Not only is DLTR cracking but FDO, NDN and DG are all breaking down as well.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:44:18 PM
Ouch! one of the leading retailers to the downside is Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock is down 10.8% on volume 3.5 times normal. The company announced same store sales for November, which were down 13%. This has prompted at least two brokers to downgrade the stock to a "neutral".

The stock has broken heavy support in the $25-26 region and looks headed for $20.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/4/200,  1:43:59 PM
James $500 (grin)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:40:05 PM
The OEX now slips just beneath the 60-minute 21-pma, but this really constitutes a test rather than a definitive break of that average.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:40:03 PM
so what's your downside target on JBLU, Jane?

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/4/200,  1:34:06 PM
James I just love trading JBLU and it is serving me well again today!

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:32:11 PM
The XAL airlines index has been seeing a lot of turbulence lately. The index peaked above its simple 50-dma four days ago and promptly reversed course. The sector is about to break support at the 59 level.

Not a component of the XAL but a popular stock in the sector is JetBlue Airways (JBLU). The stock is falling strongly with volume picking up the last two sessions. The stock might see an oversold bounce at round-number support of $30.00 bolstered by its simple 200-dma just below.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:31:08 PM
My Q-chart OEX feed is intermittent again today, so be careful about staring at a chart and thinking you're seeing the current OEX price there. IB shows the OEX at 526.41, still below the 30-minute 21-pma at 527, as well as the Keltner channel resistance that was gathering near that level as the Q-chart feed went out. I expected some bumpiness since this play was entered before a drop through the 60-minute 21-pma, but the (then) quickly rising TRIN made me worry that we'd soon see a quick drop in the OEX, too.

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:22:43 PM
QUALCOMM (QCOM) is up 9.4% today after raising guidance this morning. Previous estimates had been 37 to 40 cents a share. Now QCOM sees 47 to 48 cents a share. The news has prompted JPM to upgrade the stock from "under weight" to "over weight".

The stock had broken out above resistance at $48.70 but is sliding back towards this level now. Volume is better than twice the average today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  1:21:51 PM
""We have a strong dollar policy. I think the dollar - as other currencies' value - is best set in open, competitive currency markets," said Treasury Secretary John Snow. Tough to reconcile with the massive currency interventions this year, with the Fed acting as agent in some cases, (ie on behalf of the BOJ).

 
 
  James Brown   12/4/200,  1:16:17 PM
Strong earnings numbers from National Semiconductor (NSM) are not enough to lift the share price today. NSM beat estimates by 4 cents with net income of 36 cents a share. Revenues were up a strong 12.1% to $473.5 million (also topping estimates). Furthermore the company guided higher for the next quarter.

Shares of NSM are down three days in a row after peaking just above $45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  1:15:35 PM
Feb gold is down 1 at 403.80, with HUI and XAU recovering after their earlier shellackings, HUI now -7.99 at 246.52, XAU -2.73 at 109.48.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:11:52 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The Swing Trade Model has entered a bearish OEX position with the OEX at 526.40, with a stop at 529.50 and a first target of 523.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  1:09:30 PM
day trade short ... for the QQQ $35.20 +0.19%, for entry on bounce back to $35.45, stop $35.66 to begin, target $35.15.

Seeing ever so slight deterioration in NASDAQ A/D. 12:00 was 1507:1531 , 01:00 1510:1611.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:08:57 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter a bearish OEX position here. Stop at 529.50. First target 523, with 521 a possible second target. The TRIN is moving up now, and the OEX failed its test of the broken support on the neutral triangle. It's fallen beneath the 30-minute 21-pma again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:03:06 PM
We had a downside break of the neutral triangle on the OEX five-minute chart, with prices now coming up to test the broken support. We'll have to see if it holds as resistance now. The five minute stochastics are ready to cycle up again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  1:00:37 PM
Sorry for my absence. My firewall shut down my Internet access and I had to reboot everything. Be back in a second.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  12:58:00 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,959.79 -0.02 ... coming back to test the morning low of 1,957.74.

In last night's Index Trader Wrap, we placed MONTHLY and WEEKLY pivot retracement on the COMPX. Looking at an intra-day chart, session high came right at MONTHLY 38.2% retracement. Looks like the WEEKLY 38.2% retracement of 1,956.70 about to be tested.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  12:45:03 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 543.50 -0.3% ... I keep three charts open on my QCharts trading platform. Am just noticing that on my longer-term chart, I have a horizontal level right here, which marks relative highs from July and September of 2000.

This level did play as resistance in mid-November, and RUT.X comes back to test it as support.

I also have another horizontal level from the 04/17/02 relative high of 524, which didn't really play a big role as resistance, but did serve support along with the rising 50-day SMA on the recent mid-November pullback to 520.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  12:37:30 PM
Steel tariffs Media reports that White House lifts tariffs on imported steel. Proposes monitoring and licensing steel imports to avert surges.

Jonathan reported in Futures Monitor

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  12:25:12 PM
We did not get a lower price low on the OEX five-minute chart, at least not yet. Is the OEX going to set up another dreaded symmetrical triangle? Those used to be good formations to see because breakouts could be tested, but lately they break out, zoom back inside the triangle, break out the other direction . . . you get the picture.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  12:22:54 PM
Ugh! ... this is my first time of trying a day trade in Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $2.15 +1.8%, and I'm not overly fond of its intra-day bar chart type of trade. Maybe it takes some getting used to, but not as fluent as what we're used to seeing.

More of a swing-trade type of stock perhaps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  12:17:43 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We're about to have a lower five-minute high on the OEX, if the OEX falls beneath 526.86 on this push. I'm considering a bearish OEX entry either on a fall beneath the 60-minute 21-pma (currently at 526.15) or else on a push toward and rollover from beneath 529. I could possibly be using a rather wide stop, however, if the lower entry presents itself first.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/4/200,  12:07:23 PM
Small firms across the country are starting to hire again, a huge step in an economic recovery that is very much needed. Our nation's 23 million small businesses employ almost 57 million workers, more than 1/2 of all private-sector employees, and create more than 1/2 of the nonfarm private gross domestic product. This new found spat of hiring could help sustain consumer confidence and hold up the economy until larger companies start hiring again also.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  12:05:48 PM
Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) 544.05 -0.2% ... for my Sirius (SIRI) $2.14 +1.75% day trade, I'm rather upset that the smaller-cap RUT.X isn't finding any type of a bid so far today.

Probably should have stuck with Alcoa (AA) $35.35 +2.55% ?????

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/4/200,  11:44:11 AM
From the And the Beat Goes On Column - The SEC has charged a Dallas investment adviser Mutuals.com along with two affiliated broker-dealers, with fraud related to improper trading of mutual-fund shares. The SEC alleges that the defendants deceived hundreds of mutual-fund companies by improperly helping big investors carry out thousands of market-timing and late trades in the shares of those mutual funds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  11:15:28 AM
The SOX is now turning down again from its 30-minute 130-pma after having risen to test its 100-pma. That's a bearish development if it holds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  11:14:54 AM
Kohls (KSS) $47.15 +4.10% Link ... per Mark's 10:59:32 ... I've also noted in past that KSS's PnF chart has a bearish vertical count of $45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  11:10:52 AM
SIRI $2.16 +2.2% ... here's 60-minute chart. I had to show it a little different than usual to compensate for space limitations, but wanted to bring in a recent high observation. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  11:05:31 AM
I'm surprised. I'd expected the 30-minute oscillators to turn up today, but I expected to see that happen as the OEX.X printed a number of candles just underneath the current level. Instead, the OEX moved above the 30-minute 21-pma, with a test of yesterday's high now a possibility. How strong a possibility is this? Did the outlook on the SOX and BIX change? The BIX continued its bounce from its 30-minute 100-pma, but now will soon face its own 30-minute 21-pma. The SOX did climb above its 30-minute 130-pma, but will soon face its important 100-pma at 523.18, with the SOX now at 522.00. So the problem with my earlier assumption appears to be a problem of correlating a certain OEX level with a certain SOX or BIX level. Neither the SOX nor the BIX is displaying the strength of the OEX, then, as neither is above its 30-minute 21-pma, and each is still facing possible strong resistance just ahead. So, there's still doubt after all about how much higher the OEX can climb, at least from these factors only, and about whether it really can test yesterday's high or exceed it.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/4/200,  10:59:32 AM
KSS $47.17 (+1.88) The bears certainly had fun with our KSS play yesterday, driving the stock as low as $44.50, coming within 50-cents of our $44 target and hitting a 14-month low. That close to major support and our profit target would have been a great opportunity to lock in some gains, as the bargain hunters are out in force this morning, propelling the stock higher by more than 4%. Is this an oversold rebound or a reversal? It's hard to say, but a good test will be how KSS behaves as it approaches the 10-dma (currently $48.15). That average has been consistent resistance for the past several weeks, so another rollover from that level could be viewed as an aggressive entry point, although we'd prefer to see it accompanied by continued weakness in the Retail index (RLX.X). Another drop into the $44-45 area should be used for harvesting gains on the play, as we've been recommending since the play's inception.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:52:50 AM
Day trade long ... Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $2.18 +3.79% ... here, stop $2.12 to begin, target $2.29.

Look for break above $2.23 to bring volume. (see a 60-minute interval chart, with regression channel.) I'll follow with this chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:49:58 AM
So far, the OEX.X five-minute climb takes on the aspect of a bearish rising wedge, but the OEX has now climbed above the 30-minute 21-pma, with 30-minute momentum, RSI, and CCI all turning up, and with 30-minute MACD trying to make a bullish cross from just above signal. This push is coming from essentially equal lows as to those reached on 12/02. I think we now have to watch for the possibility that yesterday's highs will be tested after all and maybe even exceeded, although that certainly didn't seem likely as the day's trading began.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  10:48:00 AM
10:49am STUDY - AVG. AMERICAN CREDIT CARD DEBT FALLS TO $2,294

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  10:46:34 AM
HUI is now down 10.79 at 243.77, XAU -3.26 at 108.95. Despite this, Dec gold is holding above 401, last at 401.90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:45:58 AM
Jeff, concerning your 10:38 post, I read not too long ago that one of the reasons the other governments were pushing so hard to have those steel tariffs removed is that many now project a global shortage of steel, with steel prices likely climbing. The U.S. tariffs supposedly worsened the situation. While I don't claim to be able to evaluate the varying factors that might impact these stocks, some of the ones I've been watching such as STLD and X have actually been holding up fairly well since it became known that President Bush would likely drop the tariffs early.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:44:34 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,914 +0.41% ... session high here and now approaching our first level of near-term resistance in the DAILY R1 and MONTHLY R1 of 9,927.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  10:43:30 AM
The VXO is down to 16.64, put to call ratio up .3 to .69.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:41:12 AM
The OEX.X continues to find resistance at the 30-minute 21-pma, but it's climbed just above the 60-minute version. If the OEX.X continues to maintain levels above that 60-minute version, then we might expect a higher test than I'd previously thought. However, the current 60-minute period has only just begun, so we don't know what that period's candle will look like by the completion of this hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:40:16 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,930.43 -0.3% ... approaching its rising 21-day SMA for 2,925.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:38:14 AM
Steel stocks ... Hi Jeff, With the decision on lifting the steel tariffs imminent and strength in NUE this AM how should an investor read this. I t seems as though the gov't has some other things up it's sleeve to help the industry thus putting a damper on shorting the STEELS. Any and all comment welcome.

Like you, I looked for some shorts in the sector, but as I got to reading various articles on just what Washington is going to do, it could be very perplexed. There is talk that despite the lifting of tariffs on imported steel, there may still be a penalty paid by IMPORTERS that accept or arrange delivery of steel imported to the U.S., where the shipment is priced BELOW market level. While the reports I read seem to state that rules like these are already in play, the government has not been a strict inforcer of these rules, but will step up their action.

While the Bush administration weighs the potential of a trade war, with votes from Northeast voters, I'm also thinking the recovering global economy may also have something to do with the pending decision to drop the tariffs. Like you, I see strong charts in the steel sector right now, and it may well be that a strengthening global economy may eventually have steel prices firming, where dumping may not be as big of a problem.

This is a trade that I just can't figure out right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:32:01 AM
The OEX.X continues to test the 30-minute 21-pma. As it does, the Keltner channel lines separate a bit, hinting that it might be possible for the OEX.X price to climb above this resistance. (Note: As I type, that's happening.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:22:03 AM
QQQ Intra-day chart of QQQ so far. I left in YELLOW those zones from prior 5-MRTS, but added LIGHT BLUE to today's. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  10:12:26 AM
The slide in the HUI is worsening, -5.12 at 249.39, XAU -2.01 at 110.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:10:28 AM
The OEX.X now faces Keltner Channel resistance between 526.43 and 526.60, with that level correlating fairly well with the expected resistance from the 30-minute 21-pma at 526.52.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/4/200,  10:08:05 AM
Out of fear that the surging U.S. economy will soon force interest rates higher companies are lining up to issue new bonds, making new borrowing more expensive. In the past few days, U.S. companies with investment-grade ratings have issued about $7 billion in debt following $25 billion of offerings in the week ended Nov. 21, just before Thanksgiving, the highest weekly total of the year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  10:06:23 AM
Trading ideas .... Jeff: Can you give me some guidance in scanning for short term (5 to 10 day) trade possibilities? How do you come up with your ideas?

I try and read various articles (Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Business Week, news wires) and look for things that "make sense" or interest me.

Then... without looking at a chart of a stock, where an article has gotten my interest, I'll think bullish or bearish thoughts on the stock, as it relates to what I've read or heard. Then test those thoughts against the PnF chart, and see if the technicals match my thoughts.

If there's something that begins to correlate, like... "boy, that sure seems bullish" and the stock is trading $20 and has a bullish vertical count of $36, then I set some alerts on my QCharts, where I'd take action on that price being traded.

As a teaser for this year's annual renewal gift from OI, I think I've come up with a HUGE winner for bulls this year, based on something I heard on CNBC's Kudlow/Cramer. It makes so much sense, and boy is the PnF chart bullish!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  10:02:48 AM
This morning, the SOX tests its 60-minute 100-pma, with that average at 517.96. The SOX pierced that average and then bounced up. We should expect at least a tepid bounce either from this average or from the 130-pma at 514.70, but an examination of the SOX chart shows that it actually trades more in tandem with the 30-minute versions of these averages, unlike the OEX of late. Yesterday, the SOX fell below those 30-minute versions, with the 30-minute 100/130-pma's now at 523.33 and 521.41, respectively. Based on this information, then, I'd expect at least an hour or two of choppiness as the SOX trades between that likely support and that known resistance. While I'd expect a retest of that broken support by the SOX, I don't know that I'd expect it to climb back above those averages. The BIX, too, tends to trade in tandem with the 30-minute versions of these averages and this morning has already once tested the 30-minute 100-pma at 332.92 and is currently bouncing from that test.

Because the OEX is impacted or "led" sometimes by these indices, I'm watching and wondering if there won't be a period of choppiness this morning while these various support and resistance levels are tested. The SOX is showing more weakness (below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's) than the BIX as yet by this measure, and they perhaps both need to get in gear together before the OEX figures out final direction. With both the BIX and the SOX bouncing from key averages right now, I'd expect a bounce and continued testing of overhead resistance on the OEX, but perhaps not a testing of those new highs. Unless the SOX can get back over the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, I think the OEX's progress will be impeded, too, so I'd expect a rollover from a lower high. I'll be watching, however, because if the SOX does plow back above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, it's showing more strength than I expected.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/4/200,  9:59:42 AM
Dow is beginning to ramp up slightly but the Nasdaq is dormant and holding just above the flat line. Dow 9900 is about to be tested again and we will see if that level returned as resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:58:35 AM
A 4B overnight repo brings the day's total to net 1.5B added by the Fed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:57:18 AM
The VXO is up to 17 just now, well off its sub-16 lows yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  9:46:47 AM
The OEX now comes down to test the midpoint of the first five-minute range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:46:01 AM
GE, MSFT to a new session low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:41:56 AM
WMT printing a session low here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  9:39:46 AM
The OEX.X now butts up against the underside of its 60-minute 21-pma, at 525.95. At the morning's high, it came within a dime of that moving average. The 30-minute version is overhead at 526.50, just below next Keltner band resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  9:33:52 AM
Q-charts is not updating on the OEX charts, so I'm watching OEX.X instead. Although I haven't yet investigated the differences and why they might exist, I have watched over the last several days and there are differences at times. The OEX.X's first five minutes saw a low of 524.42 and a high of 525.44, with the midpoint at 524.93. The OEX currently trades above that midpoint, showing strength in the earliest trading, but we've still got that first reversal of the morning to watch.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  9:30:51 AM
Satellite radio... ... Stifel Nicolaus starts coverage of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $2.19 +4.7% Link with "strong buy" rating and target of $4.00.

Initiates coverage of XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $24.93 +0.8% Link with "market perform" rating. Thinks valuation relative to SIRI too high, but looks to upgrade XMSR on a dip lower.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:29:49 AM
Feb gold has just flipped positive, session high at 405.20 up .40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:25:42 AM
The US Dollar Index got croaked on the claims data: Link

It's difficult to understand how gold or silver could still be in negative territory here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  9:24:09 AM
Yesterday's OEX daily chart shows a bearish candle moving down from the horizontal resistance line I'd drawn on my charts at 529, with that line marking the top of a resistance band from 527-529 that showed up when studying weekly and monthly charts. The question now remains whether the OEX has finished testing that resistance. The OEX closed just above the midline support from its rising regression channel and also just above the known 523.50-524 support. Futures are up this morning, but neither 30-minute nor 60-minute oscillators show the slightest sign of reversing into more bullish mode as yet. The 30-minute and 60-minute 100/130-pma's cross between 520.22-522.40, with the 520.60-522 zone another strong S/R from recent weeks. Not having watched the ebb and flow of the markets yesterday, it's difficult for me to judge whether we'd first be likely to see that 520.22-522.40 zone's support tested or whether we'd first see a rise to test resistance, but the quick drop yesterday afternoon doesn't bode well for continued gains if the OEX does climb.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  9:18:55 AM
Best Buy (BBY) $57.42 Link ... cut to "sector perform" from "sector outperform" at CIBC

PnF note does show BBY having exceeded its bullish vertical count of $54.50, which was built back in November (X's from $18.50-$30). The Bullish Triangle pattern triggered in March (red 3 on PnF chart) at $30.00 also has Professor Davis' probability study and 30.9% gain in 5.4 months being exceeded. In a bull phase market, the bullish triangle is profitable 71.4% of the time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  9:14:11 AM
The Fed has 2.5B in overnight and 10B in 14-day repos expiring today. 10B in 14-days has just been added for a net wash, as we await the 10AM announcement with respect to the outstanding 2.5B.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/4/200,  9:13:04 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  8:38:57 AM
This was the headline last week:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans lining up to file an initial claim for jobless aid fell last week to its lowest level since early 2001, the government said on Wednesday in a better-than-expected report showing layoffs easing.

This week, as expected, last week's number was revised upward, and so that number was not, as reported, the lowest level since early 2001.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  8:31:00 AM
Initial claims 365K, 4 week MA up 3K to 362.5K. Upside surprise, futures are lower on the news, gold and bonds off their lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/4/200,  8:21:43 AM
We await initial claims, est. 354K. I'll be curious to see by how much they revise last week's number lower, as they've done for the past 8 or so weeks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/4/200,  7:05:31 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed up 103.60 points or 1%, at 10,429.99. The ministry of finance's large-company business sentiment number increased to 5.4 from the previous quarter's -5.2. Capital spending rose only 0.4%, however, much less than the previous quarter's 6.4%. Spending on plans and equipment did increase 7.7% over the year-ago period. Techs, banks, steelmakers, and automakers generally had gained by the end of the day. A media report of a possible venture between Toshiba and Canon to produce the next-generation flat panel display sent both stocks higher, and some believe that President Bush will lift steel tariffs as early as today, sending steel stocks higher, too.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.60%. In South Korea, automaker Ssangyong Motor soared on news that General Motors (GM) might make an offer for the company, but the South Korea Kospi lost 0.40%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.31%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.15%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.54%.

In Europe, market participates await the decisions of the Bank of England and the ECB. No rate change is expected. In addition, OPEC leaders meet, with their last meeting resulting in a surprise cut in production. As those decisions were awaited, European bourses showed mixed trading patterns, with story stocks trading up or down depending on their outlooks. Automaker DaimlerChrysler gained after speculation that higher pension contributions would lead to greater EPS, especially with the pension fund gains made as a result of asset appreciation as bourses have risen. Perhaps of special interest was a U.K. media report that the E.U. had produced a report examining the possibility of reinstituting 1970's type exchange controls, with that media report temporarily sending the euro lower in Asian trading. Traders and an EU spokesperson were quick to deny the speculation.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 14.80 points or 0.34%, to 4377.20. The CAC 40 had lost 5.36 points or 0.15%, to 3495.57. The DAX had gained 5.54 points or 0.14%, to trade at 3881.20.

Just as I was uploading this report, the Bank of England announced its intention to leave interest rates unchanged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:52:37 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Dashed Red are considered tentative resistance as they were traded through (up and down) in today's (Wednesday's trade). For the SPX, I would think 1,071 (DAILY R1 and WEEKLY R1) a little stronger resistance than 1,067 (DAILY Pivot and WEEKLY R1)

In PINK are what could well be EXTREME levels for volatility, which I mark now that could come into play after Intel's mid-quarter update after the bell. While it would not make sense that SPX 1,077 is in play DURING market hours the hedges can come off as quickly as they are put on.

I will say this now... tomorrow... if you are NOT a disciplined day trader (with stops and targets) do NOT trade tomorrow! The key is to keep losses small, and tomorrow's DAILY ranges are rather WIDE, and I'm expecting volatility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/200,  9:20:12 PM
QQQ Traders .... take note of that after-hours bad tick at $38.82. I tried to review my time and sales, but could not see if that was a late reported trade. This is VERY close to tomorrow's DAILY R1 of $35.83 and WEEKLY R1 of $35.80. A $38.82 bad tick does not correlate with a keypunch error with trade at $35.28 in after-hours. Sometimes we've seen how these bad tick have actually been generated with the setting up of a computer program to a defined level. While this was probably a late trade report as there was great congestion and heavy volume at the WEEKLY R1, I'll make a note here.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/3/200,  7:36:50 PM
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