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  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  6:39:34 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  4:46:49 PM
04:00 Internals at this Link along with closing values (QQQ closes 04:15 PM EST)

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  4:28:20 PM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $39.78 +4.46% Link ... higher at $41.52 after reporting Q4 (November) EPS of $0.34, which was 2 cents better than consensus. Company said revenues jumped 21.7% year-over-year to $358.6 million, versus consensus of $342 million.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  4:16:33 PM
QQQ $35.30 .... shoot... close out DAY TRADE bullish offer $35.30, or bid $35.29. ADBE reported upside, but not getting the peg to WEEKLY pivot of $35.37 I thought we might to the close.

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  4:08:52 PM
Nasdaq TRIN is going out at 0.38, NYSE TRIN 0.45. Can you say way overbought?

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  4:07:45 PM
QQQ $35.29 ... that was an out of order tick at $35.24.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  4:04:46 PM
Day trade long ... QQQ $35.27 , here, stop $35.24, target $35.36.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:57:46 PM
Now, since the markets zoomed up today, is a good time to talk about what we would be doing/thinking with relationship to that hypothetical bear call 535/540 OEX credit spread I priced last Thursday. To answer the first part of the question, we wouldn't yet be doing anything. The position wouldn't lose money at expiration unless the OEX moved above 535.95 (535 + the 0.95 credit collected from the sold call) at expiration. Although it's always possible that the OEX could close above 535.95 at expiration, chances are that it won't since that represents a move above the next resistance zone, and even if it does, chances are that it's going to zig and zag enough before options expiration to allow a profitable exit. Right now, if a person felt panicky and wanted to just get out, the position would be underwater by only about $0.10. The whole point, though, is not to feel panicky, because while the market is zigging and zagging, time is passing, and that sold call is getting cheaper and cheaper. Your bought one is, too, but that's not your prime concern. This position allows you to sit back and watch all this going on, with the OEX moving against your position, and still feel relatively comfortable. That depends on a judicious choice of strikes, of course.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:41:48 PM
Thanks, Jane, for the information on the $TRIN.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:40:55 PM
The BIX is moving back below its 30-minute 100-pma after having risen to test the 130-pma (the 100 is below the 130, which is a bearish cross). If this continues, that's a first bearish sign in this index I watch as a leading indicator for the OEX. This wouldn't necessarily convince me to plunge in with a bearish position right now, but it would make me cautious about any bullish positions I might have and really cautious about initiating any new ones.

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  3:40:49 PM
Linda, in my opinion the TRIN has been here so long (all day) and not transitioned to anything less bullish that it has become irrelevant for today's trading.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  3:39:12 PM
QQQ $35.27 +2.02% ... BIG TEST for the swing trade bull. Just encountered its March upward trend. Link

"Support broken can become resistance"

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:37:22 PM
Jane or Jonathan, is the TRIN low enough that we could consider it bearish from a contrarian standpoint now? Or is this a sign of a buying crescendo in the making?

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  3:32:40 PM
"Members generally anticipated that an economic performance in line with their expectations would not entirely eliminate currently large margins of unemployed labor and other resources until perhaps the latter part of 2005 or even later," according to the minutes, which the Fed released Thursday. Under the circumstances, the policy makers said, inflation would probably remain at "very low levels over the next year or two."

Hello... have these guys seen the CRB, HUI, XAU, SPX, INDU or COMPX this year? How about real estate, bond yields, or foreign currencies? Inflation is rampant everywhere you look. Only fractional reserve debt origination is faltering, because we're already up to our ears in it. Al Green should be forced to write "Kondratieff" on the blackboard 1000 times.

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  3:28:40 PM
Jim, Program trading average 46.2% of volume Dec 1st-5th. Almost half of all shares traded on the NYSE last week were in program trades. That equates to probably more than 6 out of every 10 S&P 500 shares traded was in a program trade. Could be closer to 7 out 10 if a past study of total NYSE to S&P is correct. Amazing. Joe

You means this is not a retail rally? (grin) Like Art Cashin said, portfolio managers are trying to squeeze one more nickle out of their end of year bonus.

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  3:27:44 PM
Members of the FOMC believe the economy will grow "at a pace near or somewhat above" its potential for the next two years but would not generate a quick recovery in the battered labor market or fan inflation because employers appeared set on gaining "substantial further increases in productivity" from workers.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  3:27:09 PM
A stunning recovery in the miners, HUI +8.83 at 236.45, XAU +3.33 at 106.37.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:25:09 PM
The SOX is now challenging its 100-pma, an average I thought yesterday and this morning that it was destined to test again pretty soon. It had traveled rather far from that average. The presumption now is that the SOX will turn down below this average, but 30-minute oscillators aren't showing any such tendency yet. The BIX has bumped above both the 30-minute 100- and 130-pma's, but it's still in the "testing" range. I still think it's vital for us OEX traders to watch what happens as these two indices test these two key averages, as this could be a key level, precipitating a wild ride higher or a rollover.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:16:58 PM
This morning, the daily Bollinger bands, and top 30-minute and 60-minute envelopes I watch were showing the possibility of a push up to 532-533, and now those envelopes have turned a bit higher. The Keltner channels show that this move is way overbought already, but Keltner channels can sometimes be used to identify breakout moves, too, just as Donchian channels can be used.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  3:13:11 PM
I'm just back up again after having been knocked off again. While I was trying to reboot, my daughter called me from Austin. A writer herself, she couldn't work because she'd lost her cable connection, too. Sounds as if Keene is having problems, too.

I mentioned earlier today that I thought there might be a drive this week to not only send the Dow over 10,000, but to close it there. I'm wondering if the markets will not be allowed to fall too far until that happens.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  3:08:01 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:58:10 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 30.82 +0.83% ... session high so far has been 331.17. Currently testing its starting to round flat 21-day SMA of 331.16, after yesterday's test of rising 50-day SMA.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:54:45 PM
Keep an eye on MedImmune (MEDI). There has been almost no profit taking in its 21% bounce from the $23 level. Now that the flu outbreak is spreading rapidly, vaccinations are almost depleted, and the worst part of flu season still ahead of us shares of MEDI are likely to see more buying pressure as doctors and patients turn to its FluMist product.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:49:23 PM
One stock overdue for a stock split is Eaton (ETN). Shares are soaring to a new all-time high at $107.76. The stock was able to maintain its gains the last several days so there are many willing sellers. The company last split its stock 2-for-1 back in 1993.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:48:52 PM
No worries, James :)

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:44:50 PM
Sorry, I don't want to leave anyone out... I meant to say Jim's, Keene's and Jon's bearish bias.... *grin*

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:43:37 PM
Actually, quite a few stocks had broken support yesterday and now they've reversed course in what looks like a bear trap.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:42:43 PM
I don't want fly in the face of Keene's and Jim's bearishness in the FuturesMonitor but I was just thinking that Art Cashin might be right. This could be an early start to the Santa Claus rally. I've looked at hundreds and hundreds of charts in the last few days. There is a large number of stocks that have pulled back to support or the bottom of their rising channel and now they're all bouncing today. If you were going to play the bounce in these equities, this is it.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:37:44 PM
The put to call ratio has dropped to .70, still nothing extreme or instructive there. The TRIN is down to .37, however, indicating hysteria-buying for the moment- but if it lasts for longer than 30 or so minutes, it will begin to look like something more substantial. We're still in prime reversal territory.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:32:16 PM
Off topic: 218 FEWER WILD BEARS

Full story at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:30:16 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,012.90 +0.88% ... looks to challenge WEEKLY R2 of 10,020.10

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:27:46 PM
There go the transports above downward trend ... QQQ $35.21 making move above MONTHLY Pivot of $35.11.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:27:30 PM
Shares of Progressive Corp (PGR) are still creeping higher and have just recrossed the $80 level again.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  2:24:33 PM
Shares of QCOM are quickly approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout might forecast a move to the $55 level. Unfortunately today's volume is relatively low and doesn't bestow any confidence to the move.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:23:04 PM
Benchmarking... Dow Indu 10,000, TRAN 2,958 (I'll be back in a second with more...)

Quickly checked... when Dow Indu trade 10,00 first time on 12/09/03, the Dow Transports were trading 2,942.69.

While this is taking things to the extreme, TRAN a little higher today. (testing market theory on very short time frame). Transports look to by trying to regain leadership role. Remember, TRAN traded 3,000 well before INDU traded 10,000

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:22:07 PM
Alcoa (AA) $34.27 +1.6% ... cancel day trade long for $34.03 pullback. Never got it, and trading BLUE #5 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:19:43 PM
GE printing a session high at 30.30 here.

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  2:19:31 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE:FCS)

A number of lower-priced technology issues are rebounding today and FCS is a stand-out in that group. The stock is up $1.43 at $24.31 in conjunction with the chip sector rally and the bounce came right on schedule at the 50-DEMA. From a fundamental viewpoint, FCS recently said it was seeing strong demand across all product lines but was enjoying particular strength from the computing, industrial and communications segments. The company also noted it was getting better indications from customers about their future needs. Our "premium-selling" position in FCS is currently profitable but the stock may warrant further attention as a bullish candidate for speculative traders.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:17:48 PM
Dow 10K again: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:17:04 PM
Here you go... ... CNF Inc (CNF) $32.82 +0.52% ... see it?

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:14:30 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,955.43 +1.46% ... session high here. Here's its components, just capture, sorted by % gains. Link

Any 5-MRTS with some potential for a day trade?

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:11:09 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

Can really begin to see the "stretch" in NASDAQ, and NYSE trying to show some leadership to the upside.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  2:08:37 PM
I know the Keltner channels let Jonathan down the other day, but it looks as if they did their job today, predicting OEX intraday support and resistance. In my 12:57 post, just before I lost connectivity, I had mentioned that the Keltner channel developments looked to be predicting an OEX retreat down to 527 or so, but I also mentioned that I wasn't sure it would get that far. It didn't, quite, although I have a bad tick on one of my charts that says that it did. It actually hit 527.50, so maybe that counts as "or so"? I'd thought at the time that the OEX might then make another try for new highs. It looks as if it's doing that, but I'm not sure that's going to happen, either. Notice that the OEX is now caught within the congestion band in which it's been trading most of December.

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  2:08:12 PM
FOMC minutes for the October meeting: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  2:08:00 PM
This most recent buy program: Link

  Keene Little   12/11/20,  2:01:12 PM
Interesting reaction out of the bonds. If some of the Fed governors favored tightening (raising interest rates), then the bonds should be selling off. Instead they're rallying.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  2:00:29 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) here's 60-minute chart. I would tie its trend with the NDX/QQQ trend that was challenged this morning. Link

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  2:00:29 PM
The only thing you missed Linda was losing money in this most difficult trading day.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  1:58:54 PM
I apologize for my absence. My cable connection went down for a while. I'm booting everything back up now and will be back in a moment. From the comments I'm reading on the MM, though, it doesn't sound as if I've missed much.

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  1:56:59 PM
FOMC minutes due out any time now.

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  1:43:38 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-Mail Replies: Part II

Regarding strategy selection: One issue to consider is that certain strategies may simply not be appropriate for your personal trading style or temperament. I know lots of people who think spreads and other limited-risk combinations are boring and far too difficult (or too much trouble) to manage. Many traders achieve success by simply placing "target-shooting" orders in a number of trending issues plays and working the ones that are filled. Others favor the long-term approach with positions in deep-ITM LEAPS or stock/option combinations such as covered-calls/collars and obviously, there is every strategy in-between (far too many to list). Unfortunately, finding the "best" approach to the options market is something only you can work through and my opinion is that, "if it doesn't feel right, it probably isn't." I wish I had some better answers for you but there is truly no "magic" in this vicious game -- just lots of hard work, and losses...and more losses...and hopefully, a learning curve that eventually helps you become profitable in the long run.

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  1:28:28 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-Mail Replies

Regarding OEX spreads and research techniques for OIN candidates: Without a doubt, writing spreads on the S&P-100 index (OEX) is one of my favorite techniques for two reasons: [1] as an index, it is less prone to large, "gapping" moves and [2] since I don't trade any positions offered in the newsletter (due to conflict of interest issues), the OEX is a great alternative for limited-risk spreads in an instrument where the necessary research is generally limited to "technicals" and knowledge of (upcoming) major market events.

As far as the weekly OIN selections, I use technical analysis scans/sorts and "premium" lists to generate a group of potential candidates. Then I select those candidates that, in my opinion, offer the best risk/reward outlook for conservative traders. There is little time for any real "research" prior to the publishing deadline, however I always make a cursory search of the recent news and calendar of future events. Now you know why it's so important to thoroughly evaluate each position offered, in order to determine if any of the selections meet your criteria for potential plays. As the disclaimer says, "Only you can know what strategies are suitable for your personal skill level, risk-reward tolerance and portfolio outlook."

  James Brown   12/11/20,  1:26:26 PM
Best performing sectors:

DDX disk drive index: +4.00%
XAL airlines index: +2.94%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +2.73%
INX internet index: +2.41%
GHA hardware index: +2.26%
GSO software index: +2.02%

  James Brown   12/11/20,  1:19:11 PM
IBM has finally filled the gap from October 15th but has not yet conquered the top of the gap, which normally acts as resistance. The 93.50 level could be the level to watch for IBM. (the top of the gap is actually 92.75 but IBM has failed 3 times at 93.50)

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  1:16:44 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-Mail Replies

(cond) Hello Ray...I've had better luck writing a spread on the OEX this month. Don't you usually do spreads on the indexes and not on the individual stocks? How do you come up with the combination picks each week? Do you research the stocks? BJN

Regarding the recent volatility and position management: Indeed, it has been a tough month (I'm looking at the portfolio right now) and sometimes it is better to avoid the volatility that comes at certain periods (earnings season and cyclical rotations, for example) and near key technical areas (such as the resistance near 1065/1070 on the S&P-500) in the trend. In fact, I know of a few spread traders (likely more experienced ones) who structure their plays to end in the months between the quarters, simply to avoid the extreme price activity that comes with corporate profit reports. Of course, there is something to be said for trading the volatility and it can be quite profitable with the right strategy. Some of our recent debit straddles such as ADVP, PCLN and VIP come to mind.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  1:15:02 PM
01:00 Internals link now correct. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  1:09:59 PM
The ten year note auction was lukewarm, with an average yield of 4.365% and a bid to cover of 1.78.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  1:09:36 PM
Speaking of the Atkins diet (if you were listening to CNBC)...the bounce in Panera Bread (PNRA) continues today and the stock has reclaimed its 200-dma despite less than stellar same-store sales numbers. PNRA announced this morning that November comparable-store sales were only up 0.1%. Furthermore PNRA expects comparable-store sales to be flat to down 0.8% in December. Gosh flat sales during the holidays that really sounds like a good reason to buy the stock! *grin*

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  1:07:58 PM
Bonds were being bought all morning after the opening drop. This was puching the yields lower since about 10:30. When the text of Greenspan's speech was made public with the comments about China the trend reversed sharply with yields soaring. The ten year bond auction did not go well either. Multiple reasons for the spike. Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  1:07:47 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Short-term traders sees difference between NYSE and NADAQ New high build.

A/D line at both NYSE and NASDAQ now has rubber band being pulled at both ends. Something has to "snap" on intra-day basis.

When I say "snap" I mean something like a QQQ $0.10-$0.15 move.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  1:04:38 PM
Here's an interesting note... Corporations may not be spending much for computers these days but consumers are buying plenty for the holidays. CDW Corp (CDWC), the computer retailer known for its mail-order catalogs, just reported its November sales that were up 22.9% over last November. The strength was powered by data storage, notebooks and printer-related products.

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  1:04:33 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: AMHC, NBIX, WGO, TTWO, MRVL, POWI

Our new picks are enjoying mixed results today as the broad rally has worked in favor of American Healthways (NASDAQ:AMHC), Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) and Winnebago (NYSE:WGO) while at the same time, causing some angst and concern with Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO), Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Power Integrations (NASDAQ:POWI). The activity brings to light an important aspect of the selections in the Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling sections and that is the relative balance I try to achieve when publishing "new plays" each week. Regardless of how the market is trending, I always try to offer both bullish and bearish positions because most readers want plays that fit their own personal outlook. Obviously, you should not try to trade all of the candidates and they can't possibly all be profitable. The key to success -- and I have confirmed this fact from reading hundreds (thousands?) of E-mails over the past 5 years -- is [1] research (which I try to make a little less time-consuming by providing potential plays), then [2] thorough due-diligence, followed by [3] careful play selection, and finally, [4] prudent position management. In short, trade sensibly!

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  1:00:00 PM
e-mail from Dorsey/Wright and Assoc, which I only get on special events, was all about the NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) reversing lower. Everyone's alert now.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  12:57:12 PM
Netflix Inc (NFLX) has spent the last six sessions consolidating back to its November lows near support at $45.00. Today's bounce in the markets has sparked a 3.88% bounce in NFLX as well. It might be tempting to try and buy the bounce from support but there is a lot of congestion between here (46.76) and its current resistance in the 51-52.50 range. It might be worth placing on your watch list as short-term oscillators like RSI and stochastics are reversing bullishly from oversold.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  12:57:03 PM
Reader Question: The market seems to be perfectly content here. OEX has stayed here for most of the day so far. Your opinion?

Response: Good question. I've been staring at the OEX all day, trying to decide what I think, and today I'm stumped. I looked at the nested five-minute Keltner channels I watch, and I see the shorter-term channel headed down now inside the others, so I'm thinking that there may be a retreat down to 527 or so, where mid-channel support lies. That's the bottom of this 527-529 consolidation band (although that was stretched to the topside today). A retreat down to 527 would constitute a retest of the 60-minute 21-pma, too, a normal thing to have happen after the 0.675% envelope is tested on the 60-minute chart. Beyond that, I'm not sure, and frankly not even sure that will happen. That's what the charts suggest, but many times lately, the OEX doesn't fulfill the expected downside. I'm keeping an eye on the SOX (looking as if it's turning down ahead of a test of its 30-minute 100/130-pma's) and the BIX (looking as if it's turning down from a test of those averages, but doing so in a likely bull flag formation). This all hints to me that we may get a modest pullback, but that there's an underlying intention to test those highs again. I'm beginning to believe that these eternal tests will go on not only until there's a test of Dow 10,000 but until there's a close above that level.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:56:03 PM
Sector action all green with the exception of the Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 89.57 -0.87%.

AMEX Gold bugs ($HUI.X) 105.34 +2.23% shows nice turn higher after the gold commodity came very close to a test of $400.00. Impressive today with U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.27 +0.47% showing dollar strength.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:53:25 PM
Wilshire 5000 Total Mrkt. ($TMW.X) 10,389.88 +0.91% ... just noticing that this VERY BROAD equity index pulled into its 21-day SMA yesterday, violated to downside, but closed right on, and finds strength today. This a bit stronger than past where tests violated to downside to hold the rising 50-day SMA. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  12:53:11 PM
INTC just printed a low of the day.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  12:47:46 PM
Monster Worldwide (MNST), better known as Monster.com - the job hunting & posting website, has seen a lot of volatility lately. Back in mid-November it broke down below support near $24, bounced back only to roll over again. Then the selling really picked up steam with volume surging. Shares fell from $24 to $19 in just six sessions. Now MNST has bounced back as Wachovia and Suntrust have upgraded the stock to "out perform" and "over weight". The positive analysts comments are based the belief that the improving labor picture will drive more business to MNST. What I find interesting is how shares have stalled under its old November low. Aggressive bears might want to watch for MNST to drop back under the $20 level again.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:46:21 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $100.00 +0.41% ... either side of $100.00, with morning range developing from $99.91 (blue #3) and $100.10 (blue #5 higher at $100.16)

BLUE #4 right here at $100.00 even. Set alert at session above session high of $100.11, and just under BLUE #2 ($99.82), which might give some alert to intra-day strength/weakness.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:42:11 PM
I wonder what Mr. Auriana is doing today? Even yesterday? Advance Auto Parts (AAP) $78.10 +1.69%, gapped above that $76.94 retracement this morning.

  Ray Cummins   12/11/20,  12:40:46 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: Barr Labs (NYSE:BRL)

The recent slump in this generic and proprietary pharmaceutical products maker continued today as another brokerage jumped on the "downgrade" bandwagon. Lehman Brothers added their negative outlook to JP Morgan's demotion in the wake of a deal signed by Teva and Andrx to market generic oral contraceptives. JP Morgan says the agreement is positive for Andrx and Teva, but negative for BRL and Watson Pharmaceuticals. Apparently, Andrx has had generic oral contraceptives pending approval with the FDA and these drugs would reduce BRL and WPI's monopoly in that (GOC) market segment. The brokerage noted that Teva's deal with Andrx suggests the generic ANDAs are approvable, and that Teva's large distribution network presents much more formidable competition to Barr. The comments weighed heavily on BRL shares, which are down $2.42 at $73.58. Needless to say, our bullish position (DEC-$70P/$75P) has been closed to limit potential losses.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:38:57 PM
QQQ $34.97 ... hmmm... just saw a little spike to session high of $35.04 above that last downward trend.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  12:38:43 PM
A couple of days ago Carnival Corp (CCL), the cruise line, broke out strongly above resistance at $36.00 and has continued to climb higher. Now rival Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is following suit and has reached its own new 52-week high. An upgrade to "over weight" from Lehman Brothers this morning didn't hurt.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:37:02 PM
$prem.x chart ... shows futures rollover. Link

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  12:36:20 PM
Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Capitalism and the role of globalization: Link

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  12:36:02 PM
When I studied a year's worth of data, examining when the OEX bounced from a touch of an outer envelope or when it followed the slope of the envelope, I found that we couldn't use the slope of the envelope to decide which the OEX was likely to do, especially when it was touching an upper envelope band. The common assumption had been that if the envelope slanted up, the OEX was more likely to follow it up, and if it was flat, the OEX was more likely to be repelled, but that didn't turn out to be true over the last year. This morning, the OEX touched the 30-minute and 60-minute 0.675% upper envelope band, an envelope band that has encased most OEX movements for months, usually with only brief piercings of the envelope. That doesn't mean that the OEX necessarily declined much after touching those envelopes, though. Here's what I mean: Link So, I'm not sure that we can draw many conclusions as yet about today's likely action, based on this chart and that research.

Interestingly enough, in the time period covered on this chart, that old axiom held true. When the envelope slanted up, the OEX tended to follow it, and when it was flat, the OEX was repelled after a single touch. One possible interpretation, explored in my original article discussing this research, is that this year's bullishness altered the normal reactions, changing the way the OEX behaved for this last year, and that it could return to a more normal behavior. So, if a year's worth of research is ignored and the recent pattern studied or the old axiom believed, then the slight upturn in the envelope might be predicting more upside.

  James Brown   12/11/20,  12:35:56 PM
The SOX semiconductor index is in its second day of a bounce from the bottom of its rising channel and has reclaimed its 50-dma. See chart: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  12:34:39 PM
The HUI has been Steve McQueened to a 6.25 point gain, now trading 233.87. XAU +2.3 at 105.34, while Feb gold has risen slightly to 406.20. Not an easy week for goldbugs.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:32:21 PM
No sell program prem. alert ...

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  12:31:14 PM
Jeff if we just saw a sell program it was pretty anemic.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:28:45 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $58.35 ... major bad tick down to $55.00. That doesn't make much sense with current levevel of trade. I don't have my buy/sell program premiums set for today. Will check to see if a sell program just hit.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  12:28:13 PM
The put to call ratio has been parked at .72 for the past several readings, VXO 16.76. No clues there.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:27:15 PM
QQQ $34.93 +1.07% ... day trader in Q's probably moving to sidelines near-term. See how the "last downward trend" in play here. Also noted the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA tested. Day trader probably now looks for pullback entry again, with understanding of some near-term resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:20:41 PM
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) $34.15 +1.24% ... Day trade bullish on pullback to $34.03, stop $33.80, target $34.42.

Take your 5-MRT, which is kind of an intra-day fitted, from that 09:40-09:45 bar ($33.61-$33.76).

Give Blue#2 $33.19, #4 $34.00, #5 $34.09, #6 $34.39.

If memory serves me correct, this $34.00 level was where we first started some day trade longs from.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  12:14:11 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Some comments to tie in with last night's Index Wrap.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  12:00:28 PM
In reference to Jane's 11:37 post, I don't know that I'd want to be a CEO right now. (Of course, no one is asking me to be, either.) Changes now require CEO's (and sometimes other company execs) to sign off on complex financial issues that can and have been manipulated well enough to fool auditors who presumably do nothing but examine such records, much less CEO's, who presumably also attend to other company-oriented business. Of course, sometimes, the CEO's, auditors, and others collaborate to fool others, and I'm not suggesting that CEO's are always doe-eyed innocents, but it's still an enormous responsibility. After accidents involving a company's equipment, such as a car/company truck accident, California prosecutors now sometimes file criminal charges against corporate execs in addition to the normal civil lawsuit that might be filed against the company itself or the criminal or civil charges that might be filed against the person whose negligence or wrongdoing might have resulted in the accident. I know of one company president hired for two weeks when such an accident occurred, with corporate attorneys having to do real battle to keep California prosecutors from filing criminal charges against the newly hired exec.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  11:59:26 AM
QQQ $34.97 +1.18% ... just noticing here that QQQ is doing battle with both its declining 21-day SMA ($35.01) and rising 50-day SMA ($34.98).

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  11:54:48 AM
Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) in a wedge right now. Did see trade at WEEKLY R1 find some selling. Break above 2,970 gives further upside to re-test of 3,000, with MACD Oscillator potential to 3,050. The rising 50-day SMA pretty much following the rising base-end of upward regression channel. Link

  Jim Brown   12/11/20,  11:54:05 AM
The light volume today has only been in one direction. Note the NYSE and Nasdaq advancing volume and the almost total lack of declining volume. Also not the "all stocks" volume. I do not know why the overall volume is so light but there are definitely no sellers. This is almost like a shortened holiday session. There has only been two noticable program trades and both were buy programs. Link

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  11:49:14 AM
Alliance Capital Management holding, one of the nation's largest publicly traded mutual-fund companies, has offered to cut the annual fees it charges investors for managing its mutual funds. The unprecedented settlement has nothing to do with Alliance being accused of levying excessive fees but stems from negotiations involving a settlement of a separate issue of whether Alliance allowed improper trading in its funds at the expense of ordinary fund holders.

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  11:37:57 AM
In a report set for release today, the National Association of Corporate Directors in Washington is proposing board compensation committees keep a tighter rein on runaway executive pay by hiring consultants who did no work for management, curbed pay practices that reward failure and avoided CEO contracts. The panel also wants boards to consider requiring executives to hold their employer's shares for at least six months after they leave.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  11:26:15 AM
The OEX is now higher than it was last Thursday afternoon and a week has gone by, but the hypothetical bear call credit spread, a position with a bearish bias, is still only a nickel underwater as I'm typing this, and might not even be that nickel underwater if a trader had been able to obtain an extra nickel of credit when establishing it or shave an extra nickel off when exiting it. We wouldn't be exiting the position just yet, though. Time premium decay is still working its magic on the position, and I expect that at options expiration, the full $0.95 credit could still be sitting in the hypothetical trading account.

I'm benchmarking this so often because I know some of you might be sitting in positions that the OEX is moving against and you know how you're feeling now as you try to decide what to do. Is it time to exit? Is the OEX about to turn around, helping you to recover lost premium on your puts? Will it fall far enough and fast enough to make up for the lost time premium? Is it about to break through resistance, inflating your calls? Been there, done that, and I'm just not sure that the unhedged directional play is the way to go right now with OEX options. I want to benchmark how much easier those decisions might be as the OEX whips back and forth. This position would not have been without risk. In fact, it would have exactly $4.05 risk, the risk that the OEX would close at or above 540 at expiration, with $4.05 being the difference between the 535 and 540 strikes and the $0.95 credit you received. A judicious choice of strikes helps avoid that event, however, and unless a market is trending strongly (against you), there's usually an opportunity to exit at a profit sometime while the play is held.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  11:16:47 AM
Per Linda's 11:14:08 post... OEX's DAILY R1 is 527.19, WEEKLY R1 is 527.85. Did see OEX trade its DAILY R2 of 529.04 today.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  11:14:08 AM
Using Jeff's 5MRT to study the OEX today shows that this just-beginning pullback occurred as the OEX tested the bullish #5, and it's slowing now at the presumed support now offered at the bullish #4. Studying this chart, this looks like a normal pullback, but a drop below 527.90 would change the tenor somewhat, as that would constitute a fall through two retracement levels.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  11:13:42 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  11:10:05 AM
The OEX heads down to that Keltner band support, with that support now having moved up to 528.25. The BIX and the SOX each hesitate, the BIX just shy of its 30-minute 100/130-pma's and the SOX just after it punched above the top 1.35% envelope surrounding its 30-minute 21-pma.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  11:09:00 AM
QQQ $34.90 +0.98% ... here's 60-minute chart of QQQ. I added the MONTHLY Pivot of $35.11. Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:52:46 AM
QQQ $34.97 +1.2% ... session high now $35.01. (Hmmmm... a little stronger than November 24th so far).

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  10:52:27 AM
Is this still an orthodox broadening formation on the OEX daily chart? It still could be. Link Historically, these have had bearish implications, being indicative of the type of emotion-driven trading that often occurs at market tops, whether short-term or intermediate tops. The bullish tenor of the markets has overcome the usual resolutions of these megaphone shapes throughout most of this year. Some day, bearish formations will be resolved with a downward move, but I'm not sure if that's going to happen before the end of this year. However, nothing that's happened so far today has dissuaded me from considering this a potential orthodox broadening formation with a potential (emphasis on potential) bearish resolution. There's been no big upside break of this formation.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  10:41:23 AM
OEX five-minute Keltner support now gathers near 527.75, just above the 527.50 level that was five-minute historical (is that a contradiction?) support during the last little consolidation band.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:40:22 AM
Misc. Pivot Matrix at this link ... Link

COMPX low/high today 1,903.93/1,926.89

$NYA.X low/high today 6,108.81 / 6,148.82

$TRAN low/high today 2,910.84 / 2,944.7

SOX.X low/high today 482.05 / 494.21

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:38:08 AM
QQQ $34.90 +1% ... OK, session high of $34.98 sees trade at 5-MRT BLUE #6 of $34.97.

I'm going to take off my 5-MRT (just to remove some clutter), and in a minute post the 60-minute interval chart again. You now what we're looking at here. On November 24th, QQQ moved above $34.80, then next hourly interval, traded either side, then began to find hourly support of $34.80.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  10:35:52 AM
The put to call ratio has risen to .79.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:35:18 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,987.34 +0.68% ... session high so far has been 9,992.30. Testing against its DAILY R2 of 9,996.87.

INDU has been leadership index of late.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  10:32:02 AM
Ten year bonds are down 3.5 bps here, equities near their session highs. Gold and silver have recovered slightly. The VXO is down to 16.44 on that set of buy programs.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:30:59 AM
Jonathan may well have been correct in his thoughts yesterday regarding lower trade being due to futures rollover. (Good job Jonathan!)

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:29:34 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,068.20 +0.86% ... session high here, DAILY R2 of 1,068.10.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:27:42 AM
QQQ .... $34.88 +0.9% ... OK.. from here, the next test for resistance, and sign of strength building most likely comes at the MONTHLY Pivot of $35.11.

I must now rememeber that day trade long from $34.95, where bullishness built to $34.08, then got hit with selling, reversed lower, and stopped that bullish trade out. We will see if the seller(s) are still there.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:23:23 AM
QQQ ... Swing trade long here $34.85, stop 34.20, target $35.75

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  10:22:54 AM
The SOX has reached an inflection point, the upper 1.35% envelope surrounding the 30-minute 21-pma. The 100/130-pma's are still far overhead, at 501.10 and 503.86, respectively, but the SOX may need to pull back or consolidate here. A move up from here would constitute a breakout from those channels. The SOX sometimes does break out, but I would think that it would at least need to hesitate for a while, if not pull back to the 485 level. The BIX isn't far from a test of its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, and that should be an inflection point for the BIX, too. The best of all outcomes for those who are bullish would be that each of those indices consolidates for a while before pushing up strongly to the next test or just slams right through them without even a consolidation period, and the second-best would be pullbacks to next support before pushing up again. However, this is a real danger point for bulls because this could be a turnaround point for those important indices, too, and the OEX isn't going to get far if these two don't continue their gains, too. So far, all three are working together, so perhaps we'll get that push to 531-533 after all.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:17:29 AM
QQQ $34.74 .... after trading session high of $34.83, recent intra-day pullback came to $34.63, then saw quick 5-minute tick higher to $34.71. May have computers more aggressive on buy side.

Trying to stay patient here for bullish entry point.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  10:13:59 AM
Keltner band support for the OEX is beginning to gather between 526.50-527, the bottom of the 527-529 S/R band from the weekly charts. Let's see if it holds.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:13:46 AM
Broad sector gains in early going ...

Disk Drive (DDX.X) 117.72 +2.4%, Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 568.08 +2.06, Software (GSO.X) 144.83 +1.03%.

Weakness ... AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 224.17 -1.51%, Oil Service (OSX.X) 89.24 -1.23%, Oil (OIX.X) 295.58 -0.06%. (only three sectors I see lower at this time, will also use as a "breadth" indicator today)

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  10:13:14 AM
Another 5B overnight repo makes 12B added vs. 15.25B expiring- net drain today 3.25B.

  Jane Fox   12/11/20,  10:12:25 AM
KPMG, one of the largest accounting firms in the country, has been accused of improperly withholding documents from the IRS to hide tax-sheltering activity. This stems from a civil investigation by the IRS into whether KPMG is liable for penalties as a promoter of potentially abusive tax shelters. A continuing congressional inquiry has focused on KPMG's mass marketing of tax strategies, and the firm faces numerous suits filed by individuals who have alleged bad tax advice in the face of IRS audits.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  10:08:45 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link was just before Business Inventories data. Oct. Bus. Inv. +0.4% vs. forecast of +0.2% in case you missed Jonathan's post.

Here's Wednesday's internals Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  10:04:53 AM
The opening put to call ratio is neutral at .72, VXO 16.91.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  10:03:46 AM
Daily Bollinger bands and the 1.35% envelope surrounding the 30-minute and 60-minute OEX 21-pma's each suggest that 532-533 could be tested this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen, but I would expect 531-533 resistance to hold. I've believed, as I think some of the other writers do, too, that there's going to be a lot of chop between now and the new year, with efforts made to maintain high levels, but with so much energy needed to maintain those levels that there could be slips now and then.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  9:59:58 AM
There are 15.25B in overnight repos expiring today, so far 7B in 13 day repos has been added, and we await the announcement on the quantum of the overnight repo to come.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  9:58:43 AM
Here we are, a week after I priced a hypothetical bearish position, an OEX 535/540 bear call credit spread, with the OEX today challenging the 527.96 high of Thursday afternoon. Imagine what an ATM December OEX put would have lost by now with a week's premium decay and the OEX right back where it was at the time of the purchase. No, don't imagine it because that would just be too painful. How about the bear call credit spread? How's it doing? It has a nickel of unrealized gains. Remember, too, this was priced both directions as if the bought call had been bought at the ask and the sold one sold at the bid, without even a nickel shaved off the two spreads each direction. It's a boring position, but sometimes boring is very exciting.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  9:58:10 AM
Oct business inventories +.4% vs. exp .2%.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:55:08 AM
QQQ $34.75 ... session high was $34.83. Didn't see a 5-minute close above $34.80. Now looking for intra-day support at WEEKLY S1.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:53:55 AM
October Business Inventories due out at 10:00 AM EST. Forecast is for +0.2%.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  9:51:25 AM
Here's a picture of what happened when the OEX reached down through its 60-minute 100-pma to touch its 130-pma yesterday, with a subsequent bounce: Link As Jim taught us a while ago (but using the 30-minute version on a different underlying), when an underlying touches the 130-pma and then moves back up through the 100-pma, that's usually a buy signal. For the last few months, though, I've found it more instructive to watch the 60-minute versions than the 30-minute ones. Here's why: Link Yet on the SOX and BIX, I've found the 30-minute versions more applicable. Experiment with the underlying you're studying. I've noticed, too, that the OEX varies from period to period as to which average is most definitive. Take another look at the 30-minute chart and see that the OEX did turn around several times recently as it hit the 30-minute averages. What I've been doing lately is letting one level set up a potential trade and using the other to confirm it. For example, imagine that the OEX had continued falling yesterday. A fall through the 30-minute versions would have warned me of a potential downside trade. A fall through the 60-minute version would have confirmed the entry. That didn't happen, of course.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:50:15 AM
QQQ ... $34.80 +0.73% ... session high has been $34.81, a penny above DAILY R1.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:48:59 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,964.31 +0.42% ... just above DAILY R1. QQQ DAILY R1 at $34.80, with QQQ $34.78 here.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  9:47:34 AM
HUI continues to get trashed, -6.85 at 220.77, XAU -1.37 at 101.67.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:47:20 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 328.74 +0.2% .... holding steady.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:44:46 AM
Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) 2,933 +0.71% ... upside alert set here at WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivots.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:43:17 AM
QQQ $34.64 +0.23% ... here's 5-MRT on QQQ for 5-minute intervals. This is same chart shown in this morning's 09:00 update and last night's market monitor on 60-minute intervals. Link

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  9:39:29 AM
The BIX and SOX are each challenging their 30-minute 21-pma's, with the 30-minute versions of these averages I watch looking more important on these indices than the 60-minute versions. The 30-minute SOX MACD broke back through a violated trendline, perhaps hinting that the SOX will be able to clear that resistance, but that's not certain yet. BIX 30-minute oscillators turn up, too. I'm thinking that each might be ready to try for a test of their 30-minute 100/130-pma's, but the presumption now is that selling rallies to those averages might be the best tactic, which makes me think that the OEX might see a rally, but perhaps not to higher highs. It's all still in the iffy category now, however, but the strong advdec lends credence to that theory.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:36:03 AM
QQQ $34.58 +0.05% ... there it is.. see it at $34.80 on the 5-MRT?

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  9:34:05 AM
The first five-minute range for the OEX produced a low of 525.50 and a high of 526.39, with the midpoint at 525.95. The OEX is currently above that midpoint, indicating early strength as it challenges the 60-minute 21-pma and the trendline that has factored in December trading, now presumed to be resistance. It's now slightly above both, but still in the "challenging" rather than "surmounting" range, and the first morning retracement typically does not begin until a few minutes from now. Let's see what happens then.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:31:57 AM
Centex (CTX) $102.88 ... I quickly put together a chart of CTX and added it to 09:20:06 comment. Traders interested in homebuilders can use similar technique to establish some levels, and tie in with the DJUSHB itself.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  9:30:56 AM
Feb gold is down 2 at 405, silver -.051 at 5.559, with HUI -1.94 at 225.68 and XAU not yet trading.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  9:28:24 AM
The OEX ended the day above the 30-minute and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but below key resistance. The 30-minute and 60-minute oscillators showed tentative bullishness, but it was tentative. That bounce yesterday from the 60-minute versions would normally be a buy signal, so let's see what happens today if it's tested again or if the OEX succeeds in bumping above that next resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:20:06 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 556.59 ... here's my chart of DJUSHB with fitted retracement. Red retracement was added after DJUSHB broke to new highs above 482.00. Link

Mid-point of regression channel approximately 565

Here's a quick chart I made on CTX, with use of a fitted retracement. Traders/investors may look to use similar technique on homebuilders they look to trade. Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/11/20,  9:06:23 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  8:28:27 AM
Initial claims 378K, Nov. retail sales +.9%, retail sales ex. autos +.4%, import prices +.4%.

  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/20,  8:18:27 AM
At 8:30, we await export prices, import prices ex oil, initial claims for 12/06, est 359K, retail sales est. .7% and retail sales ex autos, est .3%.

  Linda Piazza   12/11/20,  7:22:47 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed higher in Thursday's trading, back above 10,000, although it was not able to make up all of Wednesday's losses. The Nikkei closed up 164.58 points or 1.66%, at 10,075.14. Headlines mentioned the Bank of Japan's likely intervention to prop up the dollar as one reason behind the gains. Exporters gained as a result. Techs and automakers benefited. By the close of trading, banks were also climbing although they had been weaker earlier in the session.

Most other Asian bourses closed higher, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.10%. South Korea's Kospi was one of the few declining bourses, losing 0.44% despite the Bank of Korea's raised expectation for growth in South Korea. That news was balanced by the expectation that the account surplus might drop by half, but that inflation would also drop. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.53%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.26%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, up 0.04%. Stock-specific news in Asia included an announcement by Hutchison Whampoa that it and Japan's NEC would hold a press conference on Monday to announce the inauguration of 3G services in Hong Kong and to introduce NEC's newest handset. Much interest also centered on giant insurer's China Life's IPO to be introduced this week.

European bourses are mixed after a host of economic numbers and outlooks were released. The ECB revealed its expectations for gradual growth in the eurozone. Auto registrations and sales numbers were released, with Western European auto registrations decreasing overall although they increased in 9 out of the 15 countries EU countries. Auto sales decreased in many countries, too, with sales increasing in Germany. Volkswagen gained market share, while U.S. automakers lost market share in Europe.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has lost 9.90 points or 0.23%, to trade at 4325.50. The CAC 40 has gained 18.08 points or 0.53%, to trade at 3456.93. The DAX has gained 27.30 points or 0.71%, to trade at 3848.22.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  11:42:48 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Chart Link

Bullish % update ... The very broad NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link reversed lower to "bear alert" status with today's action, and marks the first reversal lower since reversing up to "bull confirmed" in April (red 4). This may well have the near-term "top" being in for NASDAQ Composite 2,000, NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,450, and QQQ $36.00. (Note: Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. BPOTC also reversed lower, but at a 67.03 reading.)

This internal action has a bull viewing things in a much shorter-term point of view and more willing to sell strength.

With matching relative highs in the NDX/QQQ, but no new relative low at this time, bears most likely looking to short rallies, but not as aggressive without seeing the index itself find a some type of lower low.

As it relates to a bullish trade set up in the QQQ, that trade, if it unfolds, should not be a "load the boat" bullish size position.

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  9:41:23 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/10/20,  9:36:37 PM
QQQ ... here's a 60-minute chart of QQQ, where I keep the WEEKLY levels on the QQQ chart, but add DAILY R1 $34.80 (observe what happened on 11/24/03 gap higher and move above $34.80), DAILY S1 $34.23 (overlap support at WKLY S2) and DAILY S2, which does a remarkable job at marking the late November lows.

Excellent risk/reward trade for bulls on pullback to test $34.21, where bull could ease in with a bullish trade, where upside confirmation most likely comes above $34.80.

Now... I've left the solid red downward trend on the chart, as this was my inital downward trend used, when profiling the bearish trade in the QQQ late Friday. The "dashed red downward" trend is a "cheater's trend" but a good "last bearish trend" for the QQQ, as that attachment point is right where I was stopped out by a penny, when QQQ traded above my lowered $35.45 stop, when QQQ also traded a PENNY ABOVE the then DAILY R1 of $34.85.

Guess where I'm defining the actual bullish confirmation level tomorrow? You're darned right... 2-cents above the DAILY R1 of $34.81. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me! Link

Will be keeping close eye on internals tomorrow. Spent time on internals in tonight's Index Trader Wrap, and will try to make some observations of similarity or DIVERGENCE tomorrow.

  OI Technical Staff   12/10/20,  6:51:05 PM
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