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  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  5:26:57 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  4:41:41 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  4:13:22 PM
Quick QQQ DAILY Pivots calculation with H/L/C of $36.58,$36.30, $36.58, would get DAILY S2 $36.20, DAILY R2 $36.77.

WEEKLY R1 $36.20 correlative support with potential DAILY R2 of $36.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  4:10:20 PM
Swing trade long alert in the QQQ $36.57 ... session high now $36.58.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  4:05:22 PM
QQQ ... my charts are down... I want to buy the Q's long if they trade $36.57 before their 04:15:00 PM EST close!!!!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  4:00:31 PM
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $3.05 +18.2% Link .... X gets the square at the close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  3:52:09 PM
The OEX is climbing above a descending trendline off the day's highs, with that trendline now at about 548.65. However, we haven't yet had even a five-minute close above that trendline, so it's a little early to be talking about strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  3:50:09 PM
Buy prog. prem alert SPX = 1,109.25

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  3:35:56 PM
The OEX is testing the 30-minute 21-pma. The 60-minute version has now risen to 546.10. I've been deciding whether I feel comfortable holding my personal bearish OEX position (see my 10:07 post) overnight. I think I do. I entered this thinking I might be holding the position for a couple of weeks, but we'll see how it plays out. It's slightly ITM, and an ITM put is going to lose excess premium quickly, so I could lose money even if the OEX does move my direction. I'm just going to monitor it day by day and reassess.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  3:25:00 PM
Sirius (SIRI) $2.90 +12.4% ... session highs here. Saw a "bad tick" at $3.00 and that might be a "market the market" close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  3:22:39 PM
While the OEX is testing its 30-minute 21-pma, the BIX is holding a couple of points above its comparable average. It's trading sideways while the MACD cycles down. Like the OEX, however, it probably needs to dip down and at least test that moving average. The SOX has already done so, dipping down to its 30-minute 21-pma about midday. The SOX bounced from that average, but the bounce has been tepid and the 30-minute candles have upper shadows. This isn't indicative of strength, but perhaps it is indicative of what we might expect from the OEX--a bounce attempt that doesn't get far? We're still far enough from today's close that almost anything could happen.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/20,  3:20:48 PM
S&P placed FDX on negative credit watch, Moodys is considering the same.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  3:09:12 PM
Careful, OEX bears. As the OEX drifts slowly down, the 30-minute 18/21-pma's rise. The OEX is currently testing the 30-minute 18-pma, with the 21-pma just below at 547.84. This could be a bounce point. Careful, OEX bulls. A fall through the 30-minute and 60-minute 21-pma's could get a pullback started.

The oscillators are no help. As I began typing this post, the 30-minute MACD looked as if it wanted to flatten and maybe try to rise again. As I've typed, it's changed aspects, looking a bit more bearish. It could change right back again. The histogram levels are becoming less negative. What if the OEX bounces? Look for resistance at today's high, at 551.90-552 and at 553-554.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  3:03:42 PM
So far, today's OEX range has held above the 546 midpoint of yesterday's range. That's a bullish development. However, in holding above that midpoint, it's also printing a small-bodied candle near the top of the rise. That's a bearish development, except in post-March-2003 technical analysis. In that case, it's bullish, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  3:03:27 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:55:58 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $9.99 +1.52% Link .... X gets the squar at $10.00 in today's trade, might look for 3-box reversal, but if stock trades $10.50, then should move quickly to $14.00.

Relative strength chart vs. the SPX shaping up Link

And while not a gold miner, relative strength vs. $HUI.X shows recent bullish break higher and outperforming that sector. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  2:52:23 PM
So far, the $TRAN has not been able to rise to test that March 2002 high today, nor has it fallen below the 3006 support level. In fact, so far, it's printing an inside day. You can be sure I'll be watching tomorrow to see which way it breaks out of that inside-day formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  2:49:57 PM
Maybe we ought to consider an attitude adjustment. We all hate these slow days. Many of us have been "trained up," as my grandmother would have said, on highly volatile trading situations. What if we had 30 minutes instead of 3 seconds to make a buy/sell decision? What if we had time to look up volatility charts on the CBOE and see if we were paying too much for an option? What if we could leave a play on overnight, not fearing a big gap against us? While we're watching the markets, we could take up MM poker or trade knitting patterns with each other, depending on value systems and personalities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  2:36:27 PM
The advdec line has been improving since about 1:15 EST. If volume precedes a move, then the next move will be up. I hesitate to draw a strong conclusion in this holiday-week environment, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:36:13 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,005.39 -0.05% .... one thing that crossed my somewhat bullish mind this morning was...

Remembering when INDU traded 10,000, but didn't see the sharp decline as did the NASDAQ Comp. when it first traded 2,000.

Today might have been a good day for the COMP to just cut loose with selling on the less than spectacular economic data when it slipped back below 2,000, but it didn't.

Maybe the MARKET is getting used to the way things are.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:31:55 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $37.37 -1.73% Link ... taking a rest today.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $55.14 +0.3% Link traded a high of $55.89 and pulls back. Is that a "bullish triangle" pattern developing should GRMN trade $57? Sure looks like it to me.

Remember when GRMN shot higher, but TRMB seemed to sit below $30 for quite some time? Then TRMB traded $30 and rocketed to recent highs? It would be neat if TRMB consolidates gains, and GRMN sees some rotation. Triangle patterns hint that supply/demand is finding equilibrium, and can have pressure building.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  2:30:41 PM
The US Dollar Index has tanked to below 87, as silver and gold ride another multiyear high. HUI and XAU are lightly negative after yesterday's big runup. The VXO is up to 16.87 now, with the put to call ratio .60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  2:27:58 PM
For the first time today, the OEX is slipping beneath the rising trendline off the 12/10 low, but it violated that trendline by minor amounts all day yesterday as candle bodies formed along it. That may be happening today, although the 30-minute MACD now turns down a bit more convincingly. The other 30-minute oscillators are far from convincing, however, as they flatten.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:25:55 PM
QQQ $36.44 (unch) .... after test of DAILY Pivot for second time this session, Q's edging back above their 5-minute interval 50-pd SMA.

Bond market closes in 32-minutes. Maybe things will liven up a bit at 03:00 PM EST.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  2:23:09 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection -- Part III

Regarding "option buying" techniques: The last and most difficult concept in option pricing is Implied Volatility. Many traders are completely unaware of the effects of this pricing component on their position. They continually overpay for options that are "in demand" only to watch and wonder as the premiums quickly fade. The inflated prices are usually based on short-term potential such as earnings reports, mergers and acquisitions, or split announcements. Of course, position (and combination) traders thrive on the disparities created by this effect, selling-off volatility for low risk, short-term gains. Market-makers also profit in these situations, albeit in a slightly different manner, but the concept is the same: selling something for more than it is worth and buying it back for less than it should cost. The simplest way to overcome this condition is to avoid buying overpriced options unless you are overwhelmingly confident of a large directional move that benefits your position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:19:40 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/30/20,  2:18:20 PM
It isn't clear why Attorney General John Ashcroft has recused himself from an investigation into who leaked the name of a CIA operative. The investigation will now be headed by Patrick Fitzgerald, a U.S. attorney in Chicago, who will report to Mr. Ashcroft's new deputy, James Comey. Investigators want to know who leaked the name of Valerie Plame, an undercover CIA officer, to syndicated columnist Robert Novak in July.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:04:12 PM
Darden Restaurants (DRI) $21.02 +1.25% ... upside alert I had set here, which has stock edging up to monthly highs.

Most likely higher today after I heard some "goofball" restaurant analyst on CNBC late yesterday say DRI was his top pick in sector.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  2:03:36 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection -- Part II

Regarding "option buying" techniques: Once the decision to buy (rather than sell) an option has been made, the average trader will have some difficulty determining which option is best. To be successful, you must be able to select favorable option positions based on pricing and the target time-frame for the expected movement. Using your "earnings announcement" play with call options as an example, an experienced speculator might purchase positions with only days or hours remaining until expiration. In contrast, someone that uses fundamental analysis to make decisions would generally buy long-term options or LEAPS. The majority of traders fall somewhere in between, using technical analyis and market trends to generate short-term signals for the purchase of options with 25 to 90 days remaining until expiration.

After determining the correct time frame, you must still decide which option to purchase. In most cases, your results will be better overall if you buy in- or at-the-money options. If the stock moves up at all, you will most likely profit whereas an out-of-the money option might fall in value if that movement is only moderate or takes some time to occur. Another concern is the cost of time. As you probably know, the highest theoretical time value occurs in the at-the-money option and it decreases substantially the farther in the money you go. With in-the-money options, you spend less for time. Another advantage of using an in-the-money option is that it has a high delta. Delta measures the rate of change in an option's price compared to a one point movement in the underlying stock. That means an in-the-money option will follow the movement of the underlying issue closely, so even a small favorable change in the stock price will produce a profit. Some traders avoid in-the-money options because they are expensive but the truth is, the risk/reward ratio with ITM options is better than most other positions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  2:02:04 PM
Remember that for the rest of the week, we'll be trading without getting a preview of how news is being digested by watching the Nikkei's performance in overnight trading. The Nikkei will be closed now until January 5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  2:00:37 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $29.90 +12.83% Link ... hi jeff, mike here, rmbs is up 3 today. do u have any ideas on this one. i do remember that in years past it could go from 30 to 100 in several days, although i am not expecting that now.

I tell you what. This is a stock that I just don't have a grasp of, or an opinion. I haven't followed the story close, but there has been some type of pending ruling, or something, that is either "make or break" for the stock. One RMBS bear I heard on CNBC said if they lose, stock may be worthless. Good straddle candidate perhaps?

Seeing some trader talk today that stock is up on the Micron Technology (MU) $13.77 -1.29% news that MU might be ready to admit to price-fixing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  1:52:32 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Thought I'd posted them earlier.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  1:49:04 PM
That's not much of a stop-running push today, unless we're about to get it. We still have a few minutes during that 1:35-1:55 EST time frame. On the OEX, Keltner resistance is just overhead but is stronger at 549.10.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  1:44:54 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection

(condensed) Ray, I know you deal mostly in "selling" strategies but since you had a stock in your section I was also following (RIMM), I wanted to ask you something about buying options. That stock is a good example of how you could make lots of money on an earnings announcement but my experience has been that prices generally fall after they report, even in bullish markets...what do you think? LW

Regarding earnings announcements: You mentioned the activity in Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), which, for the benefit of those traders who don't follow the stock, gapped sharply higher after reporting earnings. However, I believe that kind of movement (up 40% in one day) is definitely an exception to the norm. Also, if you are buying options -- either calls or puts -- in anticipation of "surprising" announcements, it is important to keep in mind that you might be the one who is surprised by the movement of the option price. You may be paying a lot of money for uncertainty that disappears (along with option premiums) soon after the announcement. With regard to buying calls specifically, it is a well known fact that most of the optimism in an earnings/momentum rally comes before the announcement. Invariably, after the announcement, the stock will drop. There is just no reason for the majority of traders to stay in the stock after the earnings announcement. They sell off during the last day (sometimes as late as the morning after) and take the profits from the pre-earnings run to play elsewhere. It is sometimes referred to as a "post-earnings dip" and although it doesn't happen every time, the idea has become so prevalent that the trend has built upon itself, thus guaranteeing its existence. (Sorta strange how attitudes and human nature still rule the stock market!)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  1:43:01 PM
The put to call ratio has risen to .61, VXO 16.75, +4.43% on the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  1:32:32 PM
We're now approaching the usual stop-running time of day from 1:35-1:55 EST.

 
 
  Keene Little   12/30/20,  1:30:05 PM
Now THAT $3 bill is funny (13:25).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  1:29:28 PM
For the sake of benchmarking the level, today's OEX low of the day was 547.75. Also, to add to miscellaneous information, since yesterday's candle was larger than recent daily candles, we should perhaps look for candle support at the middle of that candle, at 546.01.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/20,  1:25:42 PM
The Fed has printed so much money lately they are running out of new ideas. Here is a new one a reader just sent in. Link

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  1:25:40 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: Oil Service Stocks

Our current portfolio positions in this group include Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Noble (NYSE:NE), Smith International (NYSE:SII), and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Service Index (PHLX:OSX). However, there may also be favorable plays in similar issues such as Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), Ensco International (NYSE:ESV), Globalsantafe (NYSE:GSF), and Transocean (NYSE:RIG), as well as other oil-related stocks such as Amerada Hess (NYSE:AHC), Apache Oil (NYSE:APA), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Cooper Cameron (NYSE:CAM), Total Fina Elf (NYSE:TOT) and Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  1:24:43 PM
The TRAN continues to consolidate since this morning's steep decline. However, it's now possible to characterize the TRAN's 60-minute formation as a possible "b" distribution pattern, with a steep fall followed by consolidation in a roughly rectangular tight range at the bottom of the fall. Arguing against that interpretation are the 30-minute oscillators, which are trying to stabilize and improve in outlook. The 60-minute versions remain bearish with the exception of RSI, also trying to stabilize, while the TRAN consolidates just above its 60-minute 21-pma, now at 3009.71.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/20,  1:18:08 PM
I spent some time over Christmas with a friend who is a Vet in Austin TX. He has a big clinic there and has been doing very well over the last 20 years. He said 2003 was the worst year in the last seven and the second worst year ever. He has cut his staff from 14 to 7 and most are now part time. When money is tight pet owners put off regular visits for shots and elect to put animals to sleep rather than pay for expensive surgical procedures. He said money was so tight pet care was becoming a real luxury. He said there was no economic recovery in Austin.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  1:04:01 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: Oil Service Stocks

Shares of oil service companies are among the better performing groups today and one of our bullish candidates in that segment has hit a recent high. Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ:PTEN) shares are up $0.31 at $33.63 in the wake of some favorable comments in a Business Week Online article. The commentary noted the rising natural-gas-price forecasts and a potential "flurry of [oil and gas] exploration in the coming year." Texas-based Patterson-UTI Energy is mentioned as major owner of land rigs with revenues expected to climb 28% in 2004. Based on that outlook, PTEN's profits could more than double and investors seem to agree with an optimistic viewpoint for the company's future. Our synthetic position; JAN-$32C/$30P, has provided a gain of up to $1.45 in only a few weeks and we will be looking for another (bullish) trading opportunity in the coming sessions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:53:55 PM
To point out the bearish case in contrast to the information in my 12:50 post, the 30-minute OEX MACD histogram is now slightly negative, with the MACD having made a bearish cross from above signal. Sixty-minute MACD lines are close to a bearish cross, too, but close doesn't count.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:50:48 PM
The advdec line had been flat, but is short of lazily drifting down now, with OEX prices following. I've grown distrustful of anything appearing to roll over when it does it at these kinds of shallow angles, however. Those shallow angles may be hinting at a rollover, but they often result in a move the opposite direction and a strong one, too. So, I'm left feeling distrustful of what I'm seeing there. On the Keltner chart, I notice that resistance lines are beginning to separate, too, hinting that the OEX might now push through them one by one rather than all together in a massive pileup.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  12:48:45 PM
A moment of silence for CVSN shorts. Incredibull move today.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/20,  12:42:57 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity: Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS)

Shares of Rambus are "rambling" higher today on speculation the company will agree to a legal settlement with Micron Technology (NYSE:MU). Rambus has been involved for many months in a patent-infringement case against Micron and other companies such as Samsung and Infineon. At issue are royalties from Micron for its use of memory technology that Rambus says infringes upon its patents. The stock is up $2.93 at $29.43, on twice its average daily trading volume, and the next level of resistance is near $30. Our premium-selling plays at $20.00 and $22.50 are comfortably profitable, but there may be another (bullish) opportunity for traders -- on any pullback in the underlying -- at the $25 (put) strike.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:39:46 PM
The OEX falls through the closest and strongest Keltner support, but it's once again at that trendline off the 12/10 low, with the 30-minute candle bodies clinging to that trendline all day yesterday. This doesn't look like strong trading, but it's not particularly weak, either. It just feels like a lot of wandering around right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  12:33:50 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,003.76 -0.13% ... session and 52-week high has been 2,007.73. I have MONTHLY R1 at 2,009.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:33:47 PM
The OEX is testing Keltner channel support now. In the post-2003 world that means that it's soon going to rally. (Note: That is not a serious comment or market prediction.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  12:24:27 PM
QQQ $36.41 -0.08% ... here's intra-day chart of QQQ with DAILY/MONTHLY/WEEKLY levels. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:23:38 PM
Keltner channel support and resistance have tightened even further on the OEX five-minute chart. Resistance lies at 549.22 and support at 548.86. That's not much wiggle room. Even five-minute candles have grown so small that they're only smudges on the chart. That suggests a breakout soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  12:18:50 PM
The put to call ratio is .52 for the past half hour, VXO at 16.72. The equity p/c ratio remains in nosebleed low territory, with 90930 puts traded vs. 288755 calls so far. The NYSE TRIN is above 1, while the Nasdaq TRINQ is neutral at .71. If the Dow led us up, today it's trying to lead us lower, but with little conviction so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  12:12:20 PM
QQQ $36.44 (unch) ... intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals shows QQQ wanting to try and hold its rising 50-pd SMA (now at $36.42) as rising moving average support. Kissed it this morning at session lows as well as its DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  12:07:17 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

A/D breadth not nearly as bullish as yesterday, but NH/NL more bullish than yesterday's 12:00 reading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  12:05:32 PM
A typical trading pattern for the OEX has been a strong climb on a single 30-minute candle, a sideways trade for a prolonged period while the 30-minute 21-pma rises, and then another climb. One variation has been a quick dip down to the 30-minute or 60-minute 21-pma just before the climb. That could be happening again today. The 30-minute 21-pma crosses at 546.79, with the 60-minute version at 545.04. Bears should be careful if the OEX should dip down to the 30-minute 21-pma, as that's a prime spot from which to expect another bounce. However, bulls should be careful, too. The OEX has been traveling in the upper half of its 30-minute 1.35% envelope since December 11, a prolonged period, showing that it's becoming extended to the upside and it's about time for it to travel a different path, in the bottom of that envelope. So what else is new, right?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  12:04:11 PM
Feb gold futures are currently trading 416.90, flirting with the 1996 highs. A break above 420 would be a breakout move. Given how extended our oscillators are, I'd be surprised to see that occur, but then the move past 410 has suprised me as well. As long as the dollar remains weak, anything is possible for gold and silver.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  11:52:12 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 342.87 +0.18% .... session low of 341.27 didn't quite get a test of WEEKLY R2 (341.10), while session high of 343.05 not yet a test of DAILY R1 (343.57). Still... new highs here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:52:11 AM
A glance at the OEX five-minute chart with nested Keltner channels show the OEX bound tightly by gathering support and resistance lines. Sooner or later, those lines will separate or the OEX will gather the strength to break through the still-gathered lines, but for now 548.65 looks like fairly strong short-term support and 549.22 looks like fairly strong short-term resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:46:51 AM
So far, we're having one of those dreaded days when it's necessary to turn to a one-minute chart to see much movement. However, if one had a strong bias and were trading according to that bias, today wouldn't be so hard to endure. That would be true whether the bias was bearish or bullish. Those with a bearish bias would be seeing the near approach to strong resistance levels and the inability as yet to build on yesterday's gains. Those with a bullish bias could point to the strong gains already made and the way the markets are holding near those highs. With a strong bias in hand and appropriate stops set and adhered to, that approach could be as good as any right now. As for me, I have a "markets need to pull back at least a bit but may go higher first" bias.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/20,  11:44:54 AM
The internals are not showing any direction and a high level of indecision. The VXO is basically flat for the day and volume is very light. The A/D line has been flat from 10:30. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/20,  11:29:43 AM
Thanks guys! I logged about 3000 miles on the road over the holiday and I am glad to be back. Now I am trying to wade through over 3,000 emails that accumulated while I was gone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:26:55 AM
The TRAN's five-minute chart depicts a pattern that looks a lot like a bear-flag rise after this morning's decline. The TRAN continues to find support above 3006, but today's decline has probably moved it out of striking distance of the March 2002 swing high at 3050.40. Yesterday's close might have been high enough, however, to have considered that a test of that swing high, which is one reason I'm watching closely today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:22:55 AM
A belated welcome back from me, too, Jim.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:21:03 AM
The 30- and 60-minute OEX oscillators begin to take on a bearish cast, but when I look at the price chart, I see an index that's forming small-bodied candles just above a supporting trendline, looking as if those candles are consolidation preparatory to another move higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  11:12:09 AM
Buy program prem. alert SPX 1,109.38 (unch)

Welcome back Jim!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  11:10:17 AM
Swing trade long alert #2 ... in addition to QQQ pullback entry, want to have a QQQ long set up for upside. Will profile long the QQQ on trade at $36.57, stop $36.08 to begin, target $37.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  11:07:21 AM
This morning in my 9:24 post, I mentioned that yesterday had been a fairly large-range day for the OEX in relationship to recent days, with such days often followed by tight-range days. I had thought that perhaps the plethora of economic numbers might override that usual tendency, but now I'm wondering. It still looks as if the OEX might be setting up a possible lower high on the five-minute chart, but it must move below the 547.75 low from today before I feel comfortable calling that a lower high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  11:06:48 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:59:14 AM
OEX Keltner support is gathering near 548.35, and then is spread out more thinly beneath that level. It looks as if the OEX might be settling into a symmetrical triangle on the five-minute chart, so that we'll be forced to await either an upside or downside break out of that triangle. Or an upside or downside break followed by a sharp move the other direction. If we see an OEX move above the previous high of the day, however, I think we're looking at a test of that 551.90-552 level I mentioned earlier this morning.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/30/20,  10:57:14 AM
Linda I never thought of putting a fib retracement on BETA, what a great idea.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:48:18 AM
NVIDIA (NVDA) $24.12 +1.77% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:41:27 AM
Do we have a lower high in the making on the OEX five-minute chart? Perhaps, but we'll have to watch.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:39:07 AM
Since Jane isn't able to watch BETA today, I wanted to mention that BETA reached a 50% retracement of the decline from yesterday's closing value, and hesitated there, just as we would have expected if its climb was some sort of measured distribution pattern. However, it's finding support now at the 38.2% retracement, so there's a chance that it's just consolidating before continuing to climb. It's testing the 100-ema on the 2-minute chart, an average that Jim watches, I know. I don't think we have a complete answer yet from BETA, because it could still go either way.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:34:48 AM
QQQ $36.52 +0.21% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:25:03 AM
Short squeeze alert .... JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.50 +2.9% .... This goes back to my notes of October 28 and $400 million convertible offering.

Break much above $3.55 could have unleveraged shorts looking for cover.

See 10/28/03 MM notes at (11:56:46, 04:20:54) Link as well as the 11:00 AM EST Update that day Link

Stock may have been shorted off this convertible. Oct. 15 short interest was 23.08 million, Nov. 14 short interest was 35.24 million, and Dec. 15 short interest 41.21 million.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  10:24:08 AM
Did anyone catch the equity p/c ratio down at .29 for the first half hour? That's the lowest such reading I've ever seen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:21:11 AM
Checking DAILY Pivots .... NDX/QQQ have been only equity-based indices to see a trade at their DAILY Pivots at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:19:04 AM
Bears beware. Advdec volume is improving again, approaching the flat-line.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:16:00 AM
QQQ $36.43 -0.04% ... session low since econ. reports has been $36.30, but 5-minute bar chart action found quick buying back to DAILY Pivot of $36.33 for 5-minute close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:14:46 AM
Anyone notice the $TRAN today? After coming close to testing the March 2002 high of 3050.40, the TRAN is dropping today, down more than 20 points. However, at 3013.60 as I type, the TRAN approaches support at 3006, offered by the 60-minute 21-pma and historical S/R.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:13:37 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's closing internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:07:11 AM
The OEX retreats, but it's about to hit an extended rising trendline off the 12/10 low. The advdec line is dropping. $TRIN is rising. The OEX has dropped through the bearish #2 on Jeff's 5MRT system. So far, it's looking as if a down day is in the works, and I personally feel okay about risking a bearish OEX entry with risk up to 552, but on a day like today, that's a decision for risk capital only and not something for an official swing trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  10:03:32 AM
Swing trade long alert for the QQQ $36.38 -0.18% for bullish entry at $36.10, stop $35.73 to begin, target $36.98.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  10:01:28 AM
The OEX is bouncing from Keltner support just above 548, but we're going to have to see what happens as it faces resistance. The advdec line is kind of wavering, down from the earlier, almost-positive level, and not looking too strong yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:58:54 AM
December Consumer Confidence comes in at 91.3, slightly below 91.8 forecast.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  9:58:40 AM
10:00am DEC. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DIPS TO 91.3 VS 92.3 CONSENSUS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  9:58:20 AM
10:00am CHICAGO DEC. PMI FACTORY INDEX 59.2 VS 64.1 IN NOV

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  9:57:02 AM
The Fed has announced an overnight repo of 4B for a 1B net addition.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  9:54:49 AM
The US Dollar, or rather Dolor, Index hit a new bear market low thgere, dipping to 87.12. How long investors will be buying assets denominated in a tanking currency is The question of this rally. Here's a look that updates 30 minutes delayed with each refresh: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  9:54:04 AM
As the markets ramp up into the 10:00 reports, the advdec line is improving, but be careful and remember that the first reaction to economic releases is not always the final reaction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:50:58 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $67.07 +0.81% ... upside alert here at $67 from prior bullish profiles.

See 12/23/03 01:00 PM EST update. Link

Disclosure ... I currently hold bullish position in ESRX

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  9:43:36 AM
I'm noticing this morning that the upper daily OEX Bollinger band crosses at 551.77, near the bullish #6 predicted by Jeff's 5MRT system today, with that number at 551.81. Both of those numbers cross near an old trendline extended into today's trading. In addition, the upper 60-minute 1.35% envelope lies at 551.81. That's making me wonder if that level might be both a price magnet and an upper limit for prices.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:43:12 AM
Sector action mixed in opening 15-minutes with Semiconductor (SOX.X) 512.79 +0.46% and Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 247.40 +0.49% leading gainers.

CBOE Internet (INX.X) 168.69 -0.45% biggest loser.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  9:42:07 AM
The Fed has 3B in overnight repos expiring today, no announcement yet. Treasuries continue lower, down 3.6 bps currently, and I don't see the Fed letting that move go very far. However, with its large intervention yesterday missing bonds entirely in favor of stocks, I'm wondering what the next move will be. There's a treasury auction this afternoon, and that might serve to drain some liquidity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:40:48 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6443.69 +0.02% .... edging positive with 1.5 point gain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:39:41 AM
QQQ $36.47 +0.08% ... higher by 3 cents with session low/high of $36.43-$36.53 at this point.

10:00 AM economic data has December Chicago PMI (forecast 62.0 vs. prior 64.1)

December consumer confidence (forecast 91.8 vs. prior 91.7) first look after Saddam capture

November existing home sales (forecast 6.33 million vs. prior 6.35 million)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  9:35:36 AM
The first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from a high of 549.22 to a low of 548.62. The midpoint of that range lies at 548.92, with the OEX trying to rise and test that level. I'd be careful about making too many assumptions ahead of this morning's 10:00 numbers, but the advdec line is negative this morning, confirming the weakness we're seeing in earliest trading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  9:24:31 AM
Yesterday the OEX moved one step closer to the time when it must retrace. Famous last words? Perhaps. There's certainly no guarantee that such a retracement would begin today. As I mentioned yesterday afternoon, next historical resistance shows up between 553-554. We could also consider that there would likely be round-number resistance at 550. The real number we should keep in our sights, however, should the OEX continue to gain, is 560, because just above that level lies the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline.

Yesterday was a big-range day as recent days go. That hints at a small-range day for today's trading, but I have a feeling that today's plethora of economic numbers might override that tendency. As I mentioned yesterday, the $TRAN's close approach to its March 2002 swing high--within reach today--could be a catalyst for a big market move, either up or down. Let's see when the markets open.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/20,  9:13:53 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/30/20,  9:11:38 AM
FEDEX (FDX) has agreed to acquire privately held Kinko's for $2.4 billion in cash. Once the deal is completed, FedEx plans to offer new and expanded shipping options at all Kinko's locations. FDX has been an exclusive shipping provider for Kinko's since 1988, with full-service counters in 134 Kinko's stores. The company expects the deal to greatly increase customer access to FedEx Ground and Express shipping options in the U.S. and overseas.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  8:58:50 AM
The Council of Agriculture (COA) yesterday announced that American beef products will be banned for a period of seven years after mad-cow disease was reported in the United States, and importers or retailers who violate the ban will face stiff fines, according to a report by the local Eastern Television. The COA said retailers who tout American beef products imported after Dec. 24 or label American beef as Australian or New Zealand beef will face a fine between NT$30,000 and NT$150,000.

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/20,  8:06:57 AM
No major news due today, with consumer confidence est. 93, the Chicago NAPM est. 62%, and Existing home sales est. 6.35M all due at 10AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/20,  6:02:53 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened above 10,600 and climbed into the close of its half-day session. It closed up 176.02 points or 1.68%, at 10,676.64. Headlines trumpeted the Nikkei's year-end close 23% higher than its closing level a year ago. Gains proved broad, including gains by tech stocks, banks, construction firms, and automakers. The Nikkei reopens on January 5.

With many semiconductor stocks rising throughout the region, most Asian bourses closed higher. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.07% and South Korea's Kospi gained 2.31%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.31% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.50%. The Hang Seng benefited when top bank HSBC announced its intention to buy 50% of Fujian Asia Bank, sending HSBC higher. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.50%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher, too. Articles characterized gains in Europe as broad-based, too, mentioning gains by financials, manufacturing stocks, and pharmaceuticals. Not all the waters were untroubled, however, as Calisto Tanzi, the founder of troubled Italian dairy group Parmalat, reportedly admitted diverting funds over a seven-year period and as UBS lowered ratings on German conglomerate Seimens AG and German utility RWE. UBS raised price targets on both, however, muddying the picture a bit.

Currently, the FTSE 100 trades flat, up 1.50 points or 0.03%, at 4459.00. The CAC 40 has gained 16.42 points or 0.47%, to trade at 3527.21. The DAX has gained 17.59 points or 0.45%, to trade at 3970.31.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/29/20,  11:11:28 PM
NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.70 +4.21% Link ... In Monday morning's 09:00 Update Link , made note that NVDA was mentioned favorably in this weekend's Barron's.

NVDA looking bullish with that triple-top buy signal at $23.00. Vertical count (X's from $16.50-$22) is bullish to $34.50.

Here's a quick work up of NVDA's bar chart. Anchoring retracement at recent lows and attaching upper-end to current bullish vertical count of $34.50. Looking for solid suport at $22.00. Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/29/20,  10:41:51 PM
2003 Annual Renewal Special

OptionInvestor's TOP 50 Stock Picks for 2004

Still time! We guarantee delivery by Jan-5th:
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  Jeff Bailey   12/29/20,  9:26:31 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Chart with new WEEKLY Pivot retracement overlaid at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/29/20,  8:57:04 PM
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