Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  5:01:26 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  4:35:02 PM
Swing trade long/bullish alert ... QQQ $38.51 here, stop $37.95, target $39.20.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  4:31:10 PM
QQQ $38.38 -0.41% .... trading $38.45 in extended hours.

tomorrow's DAILY pivot levels... s2=37.69, s1=38.03, p=38.35, r1=38.69, r2=39.01

  Jim Brown   1/21/200,  4:27:30 PM
Earnings after the close:

CA__ est +0.15, act = +0.16
SGI_ est -0.16, act = -0.18
CAI_ est +0.46, act = +0.48
MXO_ est +0.23, act = +0.24
EBAY est +0.22, act = +0.24 raised guidance
NFLX est +0.16, act = +0.19 (2:1 stock split)
NSCN est +0.12, act = +0.14 raised guidance
QCOM est +0.48, act = +0.51 raised guidance
SEBL est +0.08, act = +0.08
SBUX est +0.26, act = +0.27
FFIV est +0.07, act = +0.11
SNDK est +0.78, act = +0.94 (2:1 split)
SYMC est +0.29, act = +0.32
XLNX est +0.18, act = +0.19 raised guidance +7%
MACR est +0.14, act = +0.15
CTXS est +0.19, act = +0.22 raised guidance
LRCX est +0.05, act = +0.05
PLXS est +0.05, act = +0.06 raised guidance
MERQ est +0.27, act = +0.27 raised guidance
WEBM est -0.08, act = -0.08
OPWV est -0.15, act = +0.15

TEVA going to offer $1 billion in convertibles
MERQ trading down -2.50
NFLX trading up +4.00
EBAY trading up +2.65
RYL earnings +3.29
SNDK sees modest decline in revenues in first qtr
SNDK trading down -2.50, LEXR down -1.00
T moves its earnings to Thursday before the bell

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  4:25:02 PM
Ryland Group (RYL) $79.43 +6.61% Link ... homebuilder reports Q4 (December) EPS of $3.29 per share, which was $0.39 better than consensus. Revenues rose 15.3% year-over-year to $1.07 billion versus the $1.03 billion consensus. Company saying fiscal 2004 EPS will "exceed $10.00 per share," which would be above consensus of $9.54.

RYL trades $79.55.

Gosh I didn't see that RYL had tested its bullish support trend and correlative longer-term 200-day SMA. Those are good points to be looking for lower risk/ high potential return bullish entry points.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  4:08:51 PM
5-DRT ... Jeff: You can call me crazy too, but did you see how the INDU and QQQ seem to be trading that 5-DRT you discussed in this weekend's AtheA column? INDU closing above and QQQ morning low found support at $38

Hmmm.... seems bullish doesn't it?

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  4:08:39 PM
Jeff SWC closed over $11.00 at $11.04.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:56:33 PM
The TRAN looks as if it's going to achieve a closing high above its March 2002 closing high of 3049.96. There's some doubt as yet whether the Dow will close above its March 2002 closing high of 10,635.20. That puts the Dow on the hot seat now. If it does not confirm the TRAN's new relative closing high by closing above 10,635.20 within a few days to couple of weeks, that's bearish divergence.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:52:51 PM
While the Nikkei will be open tonight, I believe, to react to our market action, most other Asian bourses will not be open again until Monday as they are closed for the lunar holiday.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:51:11 PM
GE and JNJ, two big winners from this afternoon's rise, both bump up against Keltner resistance. GE broke out of its nested Keltner channels this afternoon, and now has turned down within them, dropping down toward next support between 33.75-33.82. JNJ is up against massed Keltner resistance from JNJ's current 52.63 price up to 52.67.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:50:29 PM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,656.24 +0.85% .... yesterday I (maybe others) had noted the 60-minute interval chart showing a reverse head/shoulder pattern, with head at roughly 6,485 and neckline at 6,568. Will take note here late this afternoon that NYA.X has reached this pattern's bullish objective of 6,653.

Should we see a flat to lower open tomorrow, and quick drop, may act as a near-term weight on the major equity markets. If it continues to power higher, then most likely hints of higher highs still ahead.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:44:15 PM
QQQ $38.36 -0.45% ... BIIIIIIIG volume of 3.6 million shares in current 5-minutes from QQQ $38.35-$38.41.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:37:24 PM
After breaking outside its nested Keltner channels, the OEX now turns down inside the channels again. Usually such an occurrence after a breakout means that the OEX will retest the midline support of the channels if not the bottom of the channels, with that midline support currently at 565.27, but rising. On the very short term, though, the OEX may be headed back up to test resistance at 567.90-568.11.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:28:41 PM
While the 30-minute MACD slopes up from below signal, the SOX continues to challenge its 30-minute 100-pma. It's spiked slightly above that average during the current 30-minute period, but it's ending that 30-minute period nearer the 130-pma than the 100-pma.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:20:48 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,145.82 ... QQQ = $38.43.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  3:14:17 PM
Recently added call play GENZ is also on the move, up 3.37% making this a nice follow through from yesterday's test of 52.50 as support.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  3:12:43 PM
Current OI call play GILD is enjoying a strong session, up 3.33% to breakout above potential resistance at $65.00.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:10:09 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  3:09:09 PM
I can't imagine the Dow and the $TRAN getting this close to new swing highs on a closing basis, both on the same day, and them not being propped up through the end of the day. In fact, when I think about Jane's observation earlier today about the $TRIN and where the buying might be and balance that observation with what's happening in some of the big cap stocks, makes you think that some efforts are being made to make that whole Dow theory thing happen, doesn't it? However, we'll just have to watch to be sure.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:02:16 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX 1,148.00 .... QQQ = $38.63

Noting this comes just as bond market closes.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  3:01:37 PM
Rate of change observation after trading QQQ short and long today, I'm making some mental notes as to time it took for trades to "time out."

QQQ short took quite a bit of time to eventually suffer the loss.

QQQ long took minutes to recoup the earlier loss.

Gives the feel that buyers a lot quicker or eager than sellers are for sure.

  Jim Brown   1/21/200,  3:00:48 PM
INTEL doubling their cash dividend.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:55:18 PM
I keep thinking about the indices headed toward new highs today and that 35B repo day that Jonathan mentioned we'll be having tomorrow. Interesting juxtaposition.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:52:19 PM
March Palladium Futures (pa04h) 240.15 +6.85% ... continue higher.

SWC $10.66 +8.22% and PAL $8.96 +6.28% look to challenge recent 52-week highs.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:48:58 PM
Forgot to mention one more danger in my 2:46 post. If one of the two--either the TRAN or the Dow--achieves a new swing high on a closing basis, and the other doesn't do so within a short period of time (days to a couple of weeks), then that's divergence, and it's a negative sign.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:48:38 PM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $41.59 +5.77% .... Jeff, I saw your 10:45 note on TOL. Our computer was in the shop since Friday and I have out been running a backhoe this morning. Your target on that long play was 41.90 from last week. Do you still think that is still a good long target or does the Dec housing permits news say aim a little higher? Robert

Hmmmm.... session high has been $41.85. We/you can aim higher, but I'd sure like to protect some gains. DJUSHB 578.47 +4.74% challenging its 50-day SMA, which is near-term resistance (578.32) . 21-day SMA trying to curl around at 573.84.

How about risking snugging a stop up under TOL at $40.90, and could raise target to the 52-week high of $43.00.

I slapped a near-term retracmenet on TOL from the $43.00 high to recent $35.40 low. This give me 80.9% at $41.54, 61.8% at $40.09 and 50% at $39.20.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:46:36 PM
If the TRAN closes above 3049.96 today, it will have achieved a new swing high on a closing basis. Dow theory says that we should be watching closing values, not intraday values. The Dow closing high from that same period was 10,635.20. The closer together the TRAN and the Dow reach new closing highs, the more powerful the bullish signal is, so if both should close above those levels on the same day, that would be particularly significant.

There's a danger, though. Both have now tested those March 2002 swing highs. If both should turn down from here, this is a failure to achieve new swing highs--at least until they try again.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:41:57 PM
Program alerts haven't had a buy/sell program premium alert since last buy program alert at 12:24 and SPX 1,141.50.

SPX 1,147.62 here.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:35:28 PM
QQQ $38.56 +0.05% ... just off session high of $38.66.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:34:44 PM
The SOX was finally carried up kicking and screaming to retest its 30-minute 100-pma. It's at that moving average now. Actually, it's turning down slightly from a touch of that average, with the average at 543.93. A sustained move back through that moving average would be bullish, while a rollover here would confirm the bearishness shown when it first fell through the average.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:32:32 PM
The TRIN has been moving up since about 1:45, although it's only a slight move as yet.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:28:36 PM
QQQ $38.60 +0.15% ... day trade bullish exit alert at target of $38.59.

(+$0.22 or +0.57%)

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:28:10 PM
The TRAN has exceeded the March 2002 3050.40 intraday high and the 3049.96 March closing high.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:27:28 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,051.27 +1.03% ... new highs and breaking above two-week resistance of 3,050 here.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:26:15 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Ray Cummins   1/21/200,  2:26:09 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Market Movers: Checkfree Corp. (NASDAQ:CKFR)

One of our recent (bearish) candidates is in "rally mode" today after posting a second-quarter loss on an 11% increase in revenue from growth in processing and servicing fees. Shares of CKFR are up $4.43 at $34.55 as investors applaud the success of the company's electronic commerce unit, which processed more than 139 million transactions in the second quarter, up 10% from the first quarter, and delivered 18.5 million electronic bills, up 26% from the first quarter. Our bearish spread was closed Tuesday when the stock moved above the sold (call) strike at $30 and it may be time to look for some bullish positions in the issue as a technical "change of character" has definitely occurred.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:25:24 PM
The QQQ is trying to close the gap down from yesterday's close. Gap resistance can sometimes be found at the top of a gap, as well as at the bottom and middle, and the QQQ's hesitate here. The 60-minute oscillators hint that they might be able to do it, however, but I'm reluctant to put too much trust into oscillators just now.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:21:24 PM
Don't you love Q-charts' new pivot-analysis feature? Although I don't follow pivot analysis as closely as do some others, I do like to look at where the levels lie. I see that the OEX is currently just above it daily R2 level and its weekly R1, according to the Q-charts calculations. It's also at the 0.675% upper envelope on the 60-minute chart. Although the OEX sometimes climbs this envelope line and often pierces it, it doesn't often reach far above it. That would suggest that the current hour's candle would close somewhere near this level or below.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:19:18 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $68.72 +1.14% ... session highs.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:18:44 PM
QQQ $38.43 -0.28% .... looking for a 5-minute bar close above $38.42 to signal some strength building.

  Ray Cummins   1/21/200,  2:16:27 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Cephalon (NASDAQ:CEPH)

One of the most popular issues in the drug manufacturing segment this year is CEPH and today the stock is up $1.72 at $56.88, despite a downgrade by SG Cowen. The rally that began in late December has carried the issue over 15% higher in just three weeks, so there is definitely a need for a brief retreat. Traders who participated in our recent (bullish) synthetic position were amply rewarded, however it may be best to initiate any new plays with a more neutral outlook as the stock could experience some profit-taking in the near-term.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:16:19 PM
QQQ this morning's gap lower showed session high of $38.42.

QQQ $38.41 here and break above $38.42 should see quick fill of gap to $38.54.

Will note QQQ 5-MRT has BLUE #1 at $38.42, BLUE #2 at $38.54 and BLUE #3 at $38.61 (correlative with DAILY Pivot of $38.62)

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:14:54 PM
INDU 10,607.25 +0.73% ... session high has been 10,611.03.

For QQQ day trade long, need INDU to continue to show some gains above 10,611, (DAILY R1 10,590.68 and DAILY R2 higher at 10,652.51)

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  2:11:53 PM
Day trade long alert .... QQQ $38.37 here, stop $38.22, target $38.59 by the close.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:10:31 PM
JNJ was another big participant in this afternoon's gain. After testing its 30-minute 21-pma yesterday, JNJ rebounded from that average, setting the stage for a strong gain today. That gain has taken JNJ all the way outside its 60-minute 1.35% envelope. Perhaps that move was to be predicted as a countermove to its swing outside the bottom 1.35% envelope line late last week. When the envelopes are pierced so strongly, stocks or indices are sometimes propelled just as strongly in the opposite direction.

  Ray Cummins   1/21/200,  2:02:44 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Biogen-Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB)

Another active issue in the biotechnology sector is Biogen-Idec. Shares of BIIB are up $1.25 at $44.77 on anticipation of solid annual results from the recently (11/03) combined company. With today's rally, the stock is now trading near a key resistance area (AUG-NOV 2003 highs) and should experience some consolidation. Our new (bullish) put-credit spread at $40 appears safe for the moment and we will look for additional entry points on any near-term pullback to the 18- or 25-DMA.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:02:00 PM
The SOX isn't participating in this gain. It's flattened beneath its 30-minute 130-pma. If markets continue to rise, it may get pulled up, too, though. The 30-minute oscillators are trying to turn up.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  2:00:26 PM
The OEX has broken above the nested Keltner channels. Although the OEX sometimes continues climbing for a while after doing so, and although this can be a valid breakout signal, the OEX usually retreats after breaking out of those channels. Sometimes it does it as soon as the next five-minute candle, and sometimes--either at the beginning of the day or the end of the day--it climbs outside it a bit longer. This is a point of danger to both bulls and bears.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  1:59:22 PM
QQQ $38.32 -0.54% .... Swing trade bearish stop alert as QQQ did trade $38.36.

(-$0.21, or -0.55%)

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  1:58:04 PM
INDU 10,606.59 +0.73% ...

SPX 1,144.56 +0.5% ....

OEX 567.38 +0.64% ....

QQQ $38.33 -0.55% ....

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:56:58 PM
GE did break out above yesterday's high. It's currently at its high of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  1:52:06 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $68.49 +0.8% ... just off session high of $68.67.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:50:14 PM
The SOX approached the previous low of the day, but did not touch it and did not exceed it. Thirty-minute oscillators have flattened. I don't yet consider a rollover confirmed or the retest of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's complete until a new day's low has been reached.

  Ray Cummins   1/21/200,  1:49:49 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- On the "watch" list: Genzyme (NASDAQ:GENZ)

With last week's expiration of January options, the number of positions in the Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling portfolio diminished substantially. However, there are few issues of concern including Genzyme (NASDAQ:GENZ), which dropped sharply Monday despite a lack of public news. Fortunately, the stock is rebounding today, up $1.98 at $54.98 and the upward trend appears to be intact. Our bullish (put credit) spread is short at $50, so we will be monitoring the stock closely during the next few days.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  1:49:42 PM
Swing trade stop alert .... For QQQ $38.29 -0.67% swing trade bearish I'm going to lower stop to $38.36.

INDU 10,592 +0.6% making session highs here and this most likely will fuel short covering in the QQQ.

  Gerald Melson   1/21/200,  1:49:08 PM
Take a look at Celgene Corporation (CELG) today. Currently up 1.47. Yup, its a rumor. It's reported that Merck is looking to take them over. Again, just a rumor but a lot of traders are apparently playing on that story for all its worth.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:46:54 PM
GE is looking as if it's trying to break out again, heading up to test yesterday's $33.75 high.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:41:01 PM
We're approaching the usual stop-running time of day. Be careful. Let's see if anything happens.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:37:34 PM
During the middle of the day, the SOX bounced (well, I use the word loosely) from its 60-minute 100-pma and headed back up to retest the 30-minute 100/130-pma's it violated earlier today. It looks to be turning down from its test of the 130-pma without even rising far enough to retest the 100-pma. This is a bearish sign and kind of unexpected. With tech-related indices regularly overrunning tests, I would have expected the SOX to rise all the way to that 30-minute 100-pma if not overrun it a bit. I would wait for a new day's low on the SOX (current low 536.29) before considering that rollover confirmed, however.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:30:03 PM
Strange behavior. The OEX broke out of the possible bull flag today and hasn't even thought about retrenching to retest the broken resistance. That's showing strength. The $TRIN, though, hasn't yet returned to bullish territory. We see that some of the buying that sent the indices higher was done in the big caps, though, so perhaps that's why the OEX performs well despite a bearish $TRIN and an advdec line that is positive by only 190 issues. As Jane said, perhaps the TRIN is showing us that we saw buying in isolated issues. I don't like this behavior, though, especially as I see GE dropping 10 cents as I type.

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  1:26:39 PM
532 computer users were sued by the recording industry for illegally distributing songs over the Internet. Lawyers for the music industry filed the newest cases against "John Doe" defendants and expect to work through the courts to learn their names and where they live. Allegedly each person named was illegally distributing an average of more than 800 songs online. Our jails will be filled with music loving kids and adults.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  1:12:29 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  1:05:59 PM
Along with MMM, as someone mentioned earlier, GE benefited from the buy program earlier, with that program popping it above the likely bull flag resistance. GE has not yet been able to top yesterday's high, however, although it does remain within striking distance of that $33.75 high. There's Keltner resistance just below that level. The five-minute charts show 5(3)3 stochs just turning up for another try, but MACD that flattens. There was no bearish divergence when the price climbed today, however. The five-minute MACD climbed right along with it. The jury is still out on this one, I think, until GE achieves a new high or else rolls down again.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  12:59:43 PM
Benchmarking ... INDU 10,574.14 just under its WEEKLY 38.2% retracement (10,578.00) as the QQQ $38.27 trades its WEEKLY Pivot.

Almost as if another round of "rotation!" taking place.

Meanwhile SPX 1,141.28 is in no man's land when looking at its MONTHLY/WEEKLY pivot matrix retracmenet chart.

Swing trade bear in the QQQ should think he/she is short the "tail," but now watching the "head" of INDU/SPX and doesn't want to see too much more strength.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  12:54:42 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 523.15 +1.3% Link ... new highs here.

HGSI $14.50 +4.39% Link , GENZ $54.98 +3.73% Link , PDLI $19.63 +3.31% Link , GILD $65.57 +3.2% Link

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:49:43 PM
Weighing on the semiconductor sector is RF Micro Devices (RFMD). The company announced earnings yesterday and beat by 3 cents as well as beating the revenue estimates but they guided lower for the next quarter. Analysts had been looking for 7 cents/share next quarter. RFMD now sees 2 to 4 cents.

Investor reaction is naturally negative and RFMD is down 18.2% to $10.00.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  12:48:52 PM
I think those jobs numbers are wrong, too, but I probably think they're wrong in the opposite direction that John Snow does. With one of my daughters and my niece being of the age that their recent college grad friends are either in their first jobs or still looking for their first jobs, I know of many who went back home to live with mom and dad. I know of some people my oldest daughter's age (late 20's) who started their own businesses in despair when they couldn't find jobs, and you can imagine how successful those businesses are. I know of a previously successful IT guy, a Carnegie Mellon masters grad who was my son-in-law's friend, who gave up and joined the Air Force. None of those are going to show up on unemployment rolls, but that doesn't mean they're benefiting from jobs growth.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  12:46:01 PM
QQQ $38.25 -0.77% .... has been battling with WEEKLY Pivot of $38.27 and MONTHLY R2 of $38.25 last 25-minutes.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:44:17 PM
Currently on CNBC is Bob chatting up Tractor Supply Co (TSCO). The company reported earnings this morning of 41 cents, 4 cents better than expected. Revenues soared 10% for the quarter. Shares are up 14.2% today on very strong volume of 1.79 million shares (average volume is just 440K/day). The stock remains under resistance at $45.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:40:36 PM
Bank of America sliced chip stock ASML Holdings (ASML) to a "sell" this morning and shares are down 2.96%. Details are not available but the stock remains in its strong bullish up trend.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  12:37:47 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  12:36:15 PM
Those sure look like some bull flag breakouts we've seen, such as on GE and the $OEX. Although the advdec line has been moving up most of the day and the $TRIN has been dropping most of the day, neither yet supports a bullish scenario, however, so I'm not too trustful of what I'm seeing. On both GE and the OEX, for example, both are at or near upper Keltner channel resistance (566.31 for the OEX). Although the OEX does sometimes break through that resistance and climb for a while, that usually precedes a move down.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:36:08 PM
Well I don't know about a low-carb pastry but I read something a week ago about a man who was arrested for selling "low fat" donuts. He took regular donuts and slapped a "low fat" sticker on the box or something silly like that. I bet he was doing a pretty good business.

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  12:33:24 PM
James I know I am happy about the low carb pasta - amazing how many low carb products are out now. Now we need low carb pastry!

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:26:57 PM
Maybe the markets are just happy to hear that American Italian Pasta Co (PLB) has produced a new low carb pasta with half the carbs and "all the taste". -- announced today.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  12:25:18 PM
GE is breaking above the descending trendline off yesterday's high, it appears, but I'd wait until a move above yesterday's high before I considered that confirmed.

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  12:24:55 PM
Quite the Buy Program Jeff!!!!!!!!

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  12:24:26 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX= 1,141.50 ... QQQ = $38.24

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:22:54 PM
Breaking out today is Williams Companies (WMB), a natural gas play. The stock has been consolidating sideways between $10.50-11.00 and is now rallying higher +3% to 11.32. There appears to be little resistance between $11 and $14.

  Gerald Melson   1/21/200,  12:19:13 PM
Rumors! Rumors! Rumors! Who starts them, who reports them, and is there any truth to them? No one on the "street" will ever admit to starting a rumor or even knowing who did. One can certainly make a pretty good guess at times but in all honesty you never really know. Traders rarely care who started them, the important thing to know is that the rumor is out there and moving the stock one way or the other. Unfortunately the public is generally the last to know. Media outlets like CNBC have a policy of not reporting rumors. However, yours truly feels that such rules do not make for a balanced playing field. Various subscription services, etc., do report rumors and while at times they make no difference in how a stock is priced, at other times they can be a critical issue in moving a stock or even a sector. Sometimes a news event reported as a rumor can literally move the entire market. At times the rumors even become truth but in most instances they are far from the truth. Again, does it matter? Not really, as far as traders are concerned. The trick is in being aware of the rumor and possibly being able to take advantage of it.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:13:22 PM
Another defense stock investors might want to keep on the radar screen is EDO Corp (EDO). The stock recently broke out above resistance at $24 in December and has been consolidating its gains under new resistance at $26. Shares are building a trend of lower highs and appear to be coiling for another breakout. A trigger above $26.00 can work as an entry point. The next level of resistance is $28.50 to $29.00. Earnings are expected on Feb. 19th.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:06:57 PM
The tech sectors are really leading the decline today.

DDX disk drive index: -4.65%
GHA hardware index: -3.71%
SOX semiconductors: -3.08%
NWX networking index: -3.18%

  James Brown   1/21/200,  12:05:12 PM
A JPMorgan upgrade to "over weight" is not helping much for shares of Potash Corp (POT), a producer of fertilizer and feed products. The stock is currently under resistance at 89.50-90.00 but has been able to maintain a bullish trend. Traders can look for another bounce from the 85-86 region or a breakout over $90. Earnings should be on Feb. 5th.

  James Brown   1/21/200,  11:58:11 AM
Ouch! Yesterday I listed SANM as a stock to watch after it announces earnings. Earnings were last night and SANM reported 5 cents a share, a penny better than expected. Revenues were up almost 9% to $2.97 billion and above consensus estimates. The company guided inline for the next quarter but also announced that its CFO was leaving.

Investor reaction has been steep. Shares gapped down at the open this morning and completely erased the last two days of gains. The good news is SANM is holding steady but shares are still down 8.55%.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  11:53:50 AM
Buy/sell prog. prem. ... other than at the open, current count is 3 sell program prem. alerts and 0 buy program alerts.

Last sell prog. prem. alert came between 10:00 and 10:05 when SPX traded from 1,136.85 to 1,135.41.

1,135.41 pretty close to today's DAILY S1 of 1,135.14.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  11:52:04 AM
After reaching a new day's low, a low below yesterday's low, GE fell to $33.03. Since then, GE has bounced strongly, now up to $33.46 as I type. It will soon hit a descending trendline off Tuesday's high. This also has the general shape of a bull flag, but I'm skeptical here. Tuesday's drop back from the morning's high was steep and sudden, making the descending channel wide in relationship to recent trading patterns. Still, as GE comes up to challenge that descending trendline, the 30-minute oscillators are trying to rise and look a bit more bullish.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  11:48:31 AM
NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  11:46:33 AM
If you study the OEX 30-minute chart without respect to moving averages or other measures, the pattern that's seen is a steep climb off the low of 1/13, and then a pullback, perhaps in the form of a bull flag. Such a bull flag, if that's what it is, could take the OEX all the way down to 559.27 (between the 30-minute 100- and 130-pma's) before breaking to the upside or could break at any time. It could also be rejected, of course, with the OEX falling through bottom support.

With averages and envelopes imposed on the chart, the action looks less bullish and instead looks like the expected (from me, at least) hours-long gyration between the 30-minute and 60-minute 21-pma's, until the OEX sorts out final direction. Is the potential bull flag showing us what that final direction might be? Maybe. That's not what the $TRIN suggests, but the advdec line keeps inching up.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  11:43:12 AM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,610.56 +0.16% ... new 52-weeker here.

QQQ $38.17 -0.96%

  Gerald Melson   1/21/200,  11:40:43 AM
AWE (A T & T Wireless) is one stock that traders and arbs are viewing today. It's reported now that some five companies are looking at AWE as a buyout. AWE is looking to an auction process to "move" the company. Rumor has it that the selling price will be in the area of $12 per share. The February 10 puts have been selling well (naked puts) for .20 to .25 all morning with expectations that AWE will hold above 10 through February at least. Calls are somewhat expensive as volatility has certainly jumped. There are all forms of strategies that can be acted upon. For traders it certainly is one to put on your radar.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  11:36:05 AM
The SOX hasn't exactly bounced high from its 60-minute 100-pma, but it has steadied there and begun to climb, hinting that we could still see that expected retest of the 30-minute version. The $BIX has continued to show strength, now retesting the day's high. As I mentioned in an earlier post, an oversold bounce on the SOX combined with continued strength in the BIX could mean that the OEX would spend more time testing the resistance of the 30-minute 21-pma than the support of the 60-minute version, and might even drive the OEX above its 30-minute 21-pma. That's what's happened. The advdec line, although still negative, has been improving since shortly after 10:00. This still looks like the expected oversold bounce and not like strength, but that could change and has often changed over the past weeks with some rapidity.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  11:28:05 AM
Reader Request: Your thoughts on Barr Labs please. Merrill is really emphasizing this stock. But PF target is $60. Lehman target 85, Merrill 93. Chart looks to have long term support at 70 and rising 200smda right under that at 68.

Response: First, I note that BRL is scheduled to release earnings sometime between 2/05-2/07. Other than a daytrade, I wouldn't suggest an entry, either short or long, into a stock closer than two weeks before an earnings report. As I've mentioned before and as Jeff has taught us to do, it's a great idea to start with a P&F chart. You've mentioned the sell signal and the $60.00 downside objective. A new buy signal would not be created until and unless BRL traded a print of $80.00, and then it would be jammed right up underneath the bearish resistance line on the P&F chart. Today's print at $75.00, however, will be enough to create a three-box reversal, so what we'll be seeing on the P&F chart will be short-term strength within the context of longer-term weakness.

What about its sector? Although BRL is not a component of $DRG or $DGE, I checked their P&F charts, too. Both are on buy signals with much more upside to go. I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable extrapolating that to BRL, a stock that isn't a component stock, but at least it tells us that the sector is strong. It's possible to argue that as a weak performer in a strong sector, BRL might be expected to play catch up, but I note that on 1/09, BRL's generic diabetes drug approval was withdrawn. That presents the possibility that BRL's decline is due to stock-specific reasons and that there's no reason to believe it's going to play catch up with the other drug stocks. I'm not knowledgeable enough about the sector to guess what might happen.

What about the bar chart? If the powers-that-be think that BRL is a good deal, they haven't been showing it. Until a few days ago, OBV had been dropping right along with price. No divergence there. BRL has been in a downtrend since early December, with today's pop higher perhaps sending BRL just above the descending trendline that formed the top of that channel, depending on which candle shadows are included in the trendline. This could be a breakout, then, perhaps preparatory to some kind of earnings run.

However, there's been no bullish price/MACD divergence as BRL reached new relative lows, either, with MACD also doing so. Today's pop might have carried BRL above that trendline, but it moved BRL right up into a host of daily moving averages, including the 72-ema, the 21-dma, the 30-dma, and the 50-dma, all still at the current level or overhead. The daily oscillators turn up, but I'm worried that they might expend much of their energy as BRL battles those MA's, trying to move up further or consolidating just above the former resistance at the descending trendline. The weekly chart reveals support just below near $67-69.00, near the 200-sma at $68.49 and also near a rising trendline, and then again near $60.00.

Hmm. Descending channel. Descending channel after a steep climb off the July 2002 low. On a weekly chart, that channel sure looks like a possible bull flag. Even if it is, however, it could retrace all the way to $58-59 before breaking out, and still be a bull flag. I'm stumped on this one. I could argue that it could see a strong run and that today a breakout was signaled on the bar chart, but that pop up into moving-average resistance, the lack of growing OBV until the last few days, the P&F sell signal juxtaposed against buy signals in two drug-related indices, the possible pipeline problems, and the quick approach of earnings would probably make me look elsewhere if I were looking for either a long or a short candidate.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  11:11:18 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  11:01:02 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 345.58 +0.42% ... new highs on the BIX.X. This looks to be keeping losses in check for SPX 1,136.37 -0.21% and OEX 563.06 -0.15%.

Only INDU and NDX/QQQ have seen trade at WEEKLY Pivots.

The inchworm moveth lower, but SPX/OEX looks to be stronger, with financials providing strength.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:54:56 AM
QQQ $38.14 -1.03% .... session low has been $38.00 even.

5-MRT Red #4 almost perfect overlap with our WEEKLY 61.8% retracement of $38.02.

5-MRT Red #5 at $37.91 is today's big hurdle for QQQ bear, which overlaps WEEKLY S1 of $37.91.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:49:53 AM
QQQ ... most active options are Feb. $41 call 48,531 (oi:12,348), Feb. $38 puts 28,284 (oi:178,174), April 36 put 22,600 (oi:780)

I'm thinking institutions may be buying the Feb $38 put, and selling the April 36 put. Both trading about $0.90.

Taking some notes here today, may come in handy for Feb/March QQQ expiration. Split the difference and I get $37.00.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:47:46 AM
QQQ $38.01 -1.37% ... printing low of session here. Will quickly check Feb. options, see if there is any $38 strike selling.

VXN.X 21.65 +5.66%

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:45:52 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $41.39 +5.26% ... looks like I was a day early on the swing trade long, and might have been a day early on swing trade target.

Timing is everything.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:43:43 AM
VIX.X 15.27 +0.39% .... Weird option action in the Sep. 700 puts (spzut) with 10,200 traded (oi 44,774) and June 2005 puts (splra) 9,750 (oi 23,034). These are the two most active SPX option contracts this morning.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:42:10 AM
GE has just moved below yesterday's low, although only minimally so far. It has not yet retraced more than half Tuesday's tall white candle, however, not yet completing the somewhat messy and unconventional evening-star reversal signal. It's not looking good for GE bulls so far, though.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:38:40 AM
The BIX remains above its 30-minute 21-pma, with 30-minute MACD trying to hook up again from above signal. Yesterday, the BIX, too, had been hugging that 30-minute average rather than rebounding from it, but this morning, it tapped it during the first 30-minute candle and then rose. It's off its day's high, but if the BIX strength continues, that might work against the weakness in other sectors, effectively helping to keep the OEX trapped between that 30-minute 21-pma and the 60-minute version.

The SOX is one of those weak sectors, with the SOX now below its 30-minute 100/130-pma's. It's sitting on the important 60-minute 100-pma, however, suggesting that we might see a bounce up to retest the 30-minute 100/130-pma's again. at which point we would expect to see a rollover. A SOX oversold bounce coupled with strength in the BIX might mean the OEX trades nearer the 30-minute resistance than the 60-minute support, or might even mean that the OEX can get back above that 30-minute 21-pma. We have to see how it works out, however, as the SOX has not even begun to hint of a bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:34:13 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 569.83 +3.18% ... only sector I show higher by more than 1%.

Weakness has DDX 143.03 -5.1%, NWX.X 320.87 -3.5%, SOX.X 537.87 -3.13%, HUI.X 225.65 -1.77%

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:31:23 AM
The $TRAN, the Dow Jones Industrial's sister index, trades lower today, but has not yet traded below yesterday's low. It has eased below a rising trendline on the daily chart, but it's still within the congestion zone that's been forming since mid-December. It's difficult (and risky) to draw any conclusions while it's still within that zone.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:23:07 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $46.96 -4.10% Link ... lower on Banc of America Securities downgrade to "sell" from "neutral."

Coventry Health Care (CVH) $64.64 -2.72% Link ... lower on Bank of America downgrade to "sell" from "neutral."

BofA thinks OHP and CVH are most heavily exposed to mounting evidence of increasing competition across the industry and believes OHP's margins have peaked and expects continued enrollment declines, especially as Aetna (AET) $71.30 -0.93% Link and WellChoice (WC) $37.80 +0.61% Link become more aggressive in New York. BofA thinks CVH may face pricing pressure from Blue Cross in Pannsylvania, one of CVH's biggest markets.

BofA raises targets on Anthem (ATH) $77.30 -0.11% Link to $87 from $78, UnitedHealth (UNH) $58.53 -0.06% Link to $64 from $58 and WellPoint (WLP) $99.41 +0.15% Link to $95 from $86.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:22:58 AM
Now comes the OEX test of the 30-minute 21-pma. As I mentioned earlier, I expected an hour or two of the OEX being trapped roughly between this average and the supporting 60-minute version before the OEX decided on final direction today. The OEX overshot that supporting average earlier; now let's see if it overshoots the resistance, too, or if sellers step in quickly.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:18:40 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,512 -0.15% .... session low has been 10,490.96, and pretty close to DAILY S1 of 10,491.11 (within 10 points)

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:15:05 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:10:32 AM
The OEX dipped back below the 60-minute 21-pma again but is now trying to bounce again, too. Keltner and moving-average resistance now show up from 563.30-563.75.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:05:14 AM
Swing trade short alert for the QQQ $38.15 here, stop $38.70 to begin and targeting $37.54

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:02:46 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,514.04 -0.14% ... after falling below its WEEKLY Pivot of 10,523 in first 10-minutes, "bounces" have found WEEKLY pivot resistance. This is near-term negative in my view and has INDU vulnerable to WEEKLY S1.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  10:02:28 AM
So far, the OEX bounce has been a weak one, with the OEX not able to rise up to the 30-minute 21-pma.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:58:08 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $67.94 (unch) Link ... swing trade bull from yesterday's entry of $68.89 would like to see some bullish rotation to a more "defensive" stock in the NDX 1,537.58 -0.98%.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:55:11 AM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 143.30 -4.92% ... leads weakness in early going. See (09:40:57, 09:41:42, 09:42:16)

  Jonathan Levinson   1/21/200,  9:52:24 AM
The Fed has just announced a 2B overnight repo, which is a net add with no expiries today.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  9:51:35 AM
In addition to the supposed OEX support of the 60-minute 21-pma at 562.66, support that's failing at the moment, the OEX is also falling through Keltner support, but in both cases, the OEX may only have overshot that support by a little. The OEX should attempt a bounce from this point, but if it doesn't, next Keltner support lies at 560.67. This is still looking like a down day to me, but I still suspect that the OEX might have some consolidation to do between its 30- and 60-minute 21-pma's before it finally falls. If it consolidates too long, a lot of the overbought pressure can be relieved by that method, leaving the OEX free to climb again. (Note: a bounce back toward the 30-minute 21-pma began as I was typing.)

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:50:07 AM
March Palladium (pa04h) 235.00 +4.56% ... contract highs.

SWC $9.91 +0.6% Link , PAL $8.70 +3.2% Link

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  9:44:57 AM
The OEX is falling away from the 30-minute 21-pma, but has now descended all the way to the 60-minute 21-pma, and rests on that moving average. Usually when this happens, we see a few hours when the OEX is trapped between the two key averages until it finally decides which way it's going to go. With the strength of the markets of late, that direction has usually been up, but yesterday we began to see some signs of the normal ebb and flow action of the markets reasserting itself, and the advdec line and TRIN aren't currently promising a lot of upside. We'll have to see because all those factors can change as the morning goes on, but I'm afraid we may see a period of time when the OEX trades roughly between 562.68 and 563.70. If the OEX should instead fall steeply through the 60-minute 21-pma, then we might be looking at an eventual retest of the 60-minute 100-pma, currently at 559.80.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:42:16 AM
Western Digital (WDC) $11.22 -12.4% Link ... Downgrade by Bear Stearns to "underperform" from "peer perfrom" citing concerns about the potential for aggressive industry (disk drive) pricing conditions ahead.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:41:24 AM
Seagate Technology (STX) $16.16 -20% Link ... Downgrade by Bear Stearns to "underperform" from "outperform" citing concerns about the potential for aggressive industry (disk drive) pricing conditions ahead.

Yesterday afternoon STX reported second quarter (December) earnings of $0.41 per share, which was $0.04 below consensus of $0.45. STX said revenues rose 1.5% year-over-year to $1.76 billion versus the $1.83 billion consensus. Company sees Q3 EPS of $0.20-0.30, but said it will not achieve Y04 EPS goal of $1.55.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:40:57 AM
Maxtor (MXO) $10.75 -12.67% Link ... Downgrade by Bear Stearns to "underperform" from "outperform" citing concerns about the potential for aggressive industry (disk drive) pricing conditions ahead.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:37:24 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $40.45 +2.87% .... higher on this morning's housing data.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  9:37:01 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX range included a high of 563.76 and a low of 563.10, with a midpoint at 563.43, and with the OEX currently below that midpoint, another sign of weakness in earliest trading. That weakness could erased at the first reversal, usually beginning in the next few minutes, of course, but so far, the advdec line and TRIN support the idea of equity weakness.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  9:31:49 AM
The OEX opens below its 30-minute 21-pma, so we should look for first resistance from that average, currently at 563.70.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  9:29:41 AM
The OEX ended the day just above the 30-minute 21-pma yesterday, having hugged that average most of the day. The OEX even pierced it a time or two, but managed to close above it. An open below that MA, now at 563.70, would show initial weakness, with that MA then serving as initial resistance in early trading. An open above that MA would leave the weakness vs. strength question to be resolved by early trading patterns. This MA was a bounce point for the OEX since the 14th, but this time, the OEX didn't rebound from the MA. Instead, after the OEX fell out of its rising regression channel, it climbed that average, hugging it closely as it printed small-bodied candles along it. The OEX's ability to bounce again remains in question, then, but so does the possibility that the OEX could fall back to the 30-minute 100/130-pma's again. Let's see what today's action shows us.

  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:21:50 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  9:10:19 AM
Tuesday the board of AT&T Wireless (AWE) met to discuss acquisitions offers from Cingular Wireless, DoCoMo (DCM), Nextel Communications (NXTL) and Vodafone Group (VOD) , a sure sign that the long-awaited consolidation of the U.S. wireless industry may be at hand.

  Jane Fox   1/21/200,  9:09:21 AM
December housing starts rose by 1.7%, its highest level in nearly 20 years even though expectations were that it would fall and show a sign of cooling off. Housing economists predict home sales and construction will ease, yet remain strong, in 2004 following last year's record pace. They expect the labor market will improve modestly, with inflation remaining low and interest rates holding steady at least the first half of the new year.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/21/200,  8:31:17 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   1/21/200,  8:14:32 AM
We await Housing starts for Dec, est 1.95M, and Building permits for Dec, est 1.93M.

  Linda Piazza   1/21/200,  7:12:43 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei began the day almost 50 points in the red, and then reached down to tap support just above 11,000. The bourse spent the rest of the morning session climbing, eventually reaching a high just above 11,163. During the afternoon session, however, the Nikkei dived back toward 11,000, closing 160 points off its high, down 100.71 points or 0.91%, at 11,002.39. It closed at its low of the day.

The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International's book-to-bill ratio for December revealed a gain in orders from November's number, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.20. During the morning session, that benefited companies such as Advantest, a company that makes equipment used to test chips. NTT DoCoMo saw early gains after receiving an offer for its affiliate AT&T Wireless Services from SBC and BellSouth. Mitsubishi Heavy dropped in early trading after a report that it would bid for nuclear power plants in China, together with Westinghouse Electric. Worries about currency issues sent some carmakers lower from the start of the day, however, and it was those currency worries that some credited with sending the Nikkei lower in the afternoon even though the dollar strengthened against the yen in the afternoon. Since some techs were trading lower in U.S. trading after hours due to disappointment in earnings reports, Japanese techs might have been impacted by that disappointment, too. By the end of the day, tech stocks had fallen, even Advantest and other chip-related stocks.

Many Asian bourses were closed for the lunar holiday, and some will remain closed until Monday. Those included Taiwan's, South Korea's, and China's, with Hong Kong's and Singapore's closing early. Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.29% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.33%.

European bourses reveal a mixed trading pattern as individual stocks and sectors react to earnings reports both in Europe and in the U.S. Reports by RF Micro and Motorola sent handset maker Nokia lower and impacted European chip stocks, too. While we watch trials of former company execs begin or be contemplated, Europe does the same, with the trial of former Mannesmann officials beginning. One of those on trial currently serves as the CEO of Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank declined in early trading. Some defensive stocks rose, including utility stocks, oil majors, and consumer products stocks. Some gained due to specific news, such as Morgan Stanley's upgrading of Nestle to an overweight rating, and some reportedly gained due to sector rotation.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is down 1.10 points or 0.02%, at 4498.20, with the index chopping around near the flat-line level most of the day. The CAC 40 trades higher by 11.20 points or 0.31%, at 3671.39. The DAX has gained 24.10 points or 0.59%, to trade at 4130.51. Both the CAC and the DAX trade near their day's high.

  OI Technical Staff   1/20/200,  9:40:33 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives