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  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  5:21:31 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  4:20:34 PM
QQQ $38.15 -0.59% ... jumped to $38.35 on knee-jerk to MSFT headline numbers. Back at $38.16 here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  4:02:41 PM
Earnings after the close:

MSFT est +0.30, act = +0.34 guidance 23-24 +0.05 charges
AMGN est +0.48, act = +0.46 rev inline
KLAC est +0.19, act = +0.22
ATML est -0.02, act = +0.02
IDTI est +0.02, act = +0.02
BVSN est +0.02, act = +0.09
MCHP est +0.19, act = +0.19 BTB ratio 1.26
GNSS est +0.03, act = +0.08 guide inline
PWAV est -0.03, act = -0.02
UTSI est +0.51, act = +0.52
MSCC est +0.09, act = +0.11 raised guidance
GLW est +0.04, act = +0.04 raised guidance
ACF est +0.28, act +0.30 raised guidance
STK est +0.54, act = +0.54
SFA est +0.29, act = +0.33

AMGN accidentally released on website.
GLW announced -0.02 but after charges of +0.06
STK buying back 1 million shares
MSFT reporting +0.14 cents including -0.20 of charges for +0.34 operating.
MSFT prior Q1 consensus was +0.27. Q1 Guidance +28-29. Slightly higher.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:55:40 PM
Just unbelievable! I would not chase Visteon (VC) here but I'll be looking for a breakdown in that rising trend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:55:00 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,143.80 ... QQQ = $38.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:53:53 PM
JDSU That was a bad tick, but will close out here at $4.97. It's been going to the bad ticks anyway.

(-$0.15, or -2.94% if stopped $4.95)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:52:44 PM
JDSU $4.99 ... so many "bad ticks" in JDSU today I'm not sure, but stop alert just traded at $4.95.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  3:45:19 PM
Earnings after the close:

MSFT est +0.30, act =
AMGN est +0.48, act = +0.46 rev inline
KLAC est +0.19, act =
MCHP est +0.19, act =
GNSS est +0.03, act =
PWAV est -0.03, act =
UTSI est +0.51, act =
GLW est +0.04, act =
SFA est +0.29, act =

AMGN accidentally released on website.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:44:32 PM
Day trade update alert for JDSU $5.01 -7% ....

Will look to either sell the close on JDSU for day trade or look for exit on abounce back to $5.05.

While I look for support at current levels, may pick this one up again, but look to finish flat on JDSU today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:42:03 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,144.92 ... QQQ = $38.20

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:41:42 PM
Looking for a bearish candidate? Kohl's (KSS) is once again at the top of its descending channel. Shares appear to be failing again. This could be the potential entry point with a stop about 45.01, target the bottom of the channel south of $40. Earnings are in Feb.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:34:55 PM
Another stock in the medical device industry is Styker (SYK). SYK also has earnings expected on Jan. 29th and the stock is coiling for a breakout over the $90 level.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  3:34:43 PM
PII declaring a 2:1 split and increased their dividend

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:33:56 PM
I'm noticing a bullish breakout to new highs in Guidant (GDT) after 2 1/2 weeks in a very tight trading range. The weekly chart could give you vertigo but this might be a swing-trade candidate with earnings coming up on Jan. 29th. Use a tight stop.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:29:33 PM
Bullish traders may also want to watch ADP. Shares are up 2.66% after beating earnings by a penny. The rally today is a nice bounce from the $40 area and a breakout over its short-term trend of lower highs. The stock looks like it could run to the $45-46 region.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  3:26:46 PM
Bulls might want to take another look at JNJ. The stock has made a post-earnings breakout over resistance in the 52.00-52.50 range and its simple 200-dma. The weekly chart also looks very tempting with a bullish move over its 50 week and 200-week ma's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:19:11 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,145.68 ... QQQ = $38.22

This is getting crazy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:18:21 PM
S&P Retail (RLX.X) 383.72 +1.52% ... highs of the day here. May be a bullish catalyst group.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  3:18:17 PM
Earnings after the close:

MSFT est +0.30, act =
AMGN est +0.48, act =
KLAC est +0.19, act =
MCHP est +0.19, act =
GNSS est +0.03, act =
PWAV est -0.03, act =
UTSI est +0.51, act =
GLW est +0.04, act =
SFA est +0.29, act =

I will repost these and be updating these once they start announcing

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:13:38 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert First of the day! ... SPX = 1,146.65 ... QQQ = $38.32.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:09:41 PM
QQQ $38.25 -0.34% ...

JDSU $5.05 -6.22%

ESRX $69.29 +1.12%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  3:02:37 PM
Treasuries close ... 10-year saw buying with YIELD ($TNX.X) falling 6.8 basis points to 3.969%.

INDU = 10,620 , SPX = 1,144.22, OEX = 566.29, QQQ = 38.20, BIX.X 350.28.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:58:20 PM
JDSU $5.02 -6.65% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:56:57 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,143.52 ... QQQ = $38.12

Bullish side of me saying "Ouch!" 3-minutes to bond market close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:50:51 PM
JDSU $5.01 -6.84% ... just traded $4.99 and sees some volume. (2.2 million in last 5-minutes)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:47:56 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,656.00 -0.03% ... falls below my intra-day wedge.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:46:28 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,144.34 ... QQQ = $38.20

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:43:15 PM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X 382.25 +1.13% Link ... has been battling with its monthly highs all day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:40:00 PM
Bond market closes in 20 minutes. And it may well be the 03:00 hour where the markets decide to make a move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:33:23 PM
NYSE Comp. Chart on 30-minute intervals to bring in some observations. Mainly the reverse head/shoulder pattern discussed last week. Link and today's note about wedge forming, which should have pressure building. Now we wait for the break to try and get sense of direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:23:09 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:16:41 PM
Nice wedge forming intra-day on the NYSE Composite (NYA.X). See it?

Bullish break at 6,670, bearish break at 6,656 based on these very short-term trend. (I anchored upward trend of wedge from yesterday afternoon's low of 6,647.69 and attached it to this morning's low of 6,651.75)

With all these sell program premium alerts witnessed today, I sense some great pressure building.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:14:27 PM
Data provider for internals is slow today. I can't wait to see what 02:00 levels were.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:13:12 PM
NYSE Compsite (NYA.X) 6,666.00. ... another 0.66 and its 6s across the board.

When I played YAL football, my favorite jesey number was 66. Quarterbacks and wide receivers couldn't wear it though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:10:11 PM
QQQ $38.29 -0.25% ... hitting its 5-minute bar chart's 50 and 21-pd sma at $38.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  2:08:46 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 350.76 +0.36% ... made a session high at 10:55 of 362.21, but it has been a slow progression lower ever since. Still holding gains and should keep the SPX/OEX holding a bid.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:58:07 PM
Sell Program Prem. Alert SPX = 1,144.97 ... QQQ = $38.20

All I had to do is make mention of lack of sell program premium alerts in the 01:00 Update to get them active again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:55:28 PM
post sell program prem. alert .... SPX = 1,145.61 ... QQQ = $38.25

Tough little buggers aren't they?

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:53:43 PM
Afternoon check up on sector winners and losers: _________________________________

WINNERS:
XAL airlines index: +4.5%
RLX retail index: +1.14%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +0.79%

LOSERS:
DDX disk drives index: -3.3%
NWX networking index: -2.73%
GHA hardware index: -1.29%
GSO software index: -1.19%

OSX oil services: -1.6%
XBD broker-dealers: -1.33%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:50:41 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,145.64 ... QQQ = $38.21

This one might hurt the bulls. (more than the others seen earlier today)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:48:59 PM
How I see the QQQ right now (today)...

ESRX $69.40 +1.28% ... "head"

QQQ $38.27 -0.31% .... "thorax"

JDSU $5.08 -5.72% ... "tail"

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:31:00 PM
A M R Corp (AMR), parent to American Airlines, the largest airliner in the world, is leading the XAL airline index to a 4.57% gain. Yesterday the company announced that it only lost $111 million last quarter, compared to a loss of $529 million Q4 of 2002.

Excluding charges and investment gains AMR reported a loss of 59 cents a share compared to analyst estimates for a loss of $1.01 a share. The huge earnings surprise has sent AMR to a 16.5% gain and breaking out above resistance at $15.00 on strong volume.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:18:06 PM
Something I missed earlier on LU... Smith Barney has downgraded the stock to a "sell".

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:14:12 PM
This morning Verizon Communications (VZ) announced that its board had approved an 80 million share buyback. That sounds like a lot but VZ has 2.76 billion shares outstanding. Hmm.. I guess that is almost 3% of the outstanding shares but the company has till Feb. 28, 2006 to complete the purchase.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:11:14 PM
QQQ $38.26 -0.31% ... "whacked" back down to WEEKLY Pivot ($38.27).

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:09:33 PM
Ouch! Lucent (LU) really fading after its earnings report. LU has dropped from $4.75 to $4.10 in the last two days but it does look like traders bought the morning dip to $3.95.

It's probably no coincidence that the low today in LU is a perfect bounce off the 50% fibonacci retracement level of its 2004 rally. See chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:07:19 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Similar A/D action in the NYSE as found yesterday at 12:00. The question now is can it duplicate or DIVERGE. Touched on this in last night's Index Wrap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  1:02:18 PM
JDSU ... $5.08 ... saw a "bad tick" to $5.03 about 10-minutes ago. Might expect a decline to there right now.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  1:02:15 PM
After Symantec's (SYMC) positive earnings announcement last night the stock gapped higher this morning above resistance at $40 and its simple 50-dma. Unfortunately those gains are fading and shares are back near the $39 level.

Broker reactions to SYMC's numbers:
1 upgrade to a "hold"
1 upgrade to a "strong buy"
4 reiterate their "buy"

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  12:57:02 PM
Shares of JCI gapped higher this morning above resistance at $60.00 after announcing earnings yesterday that beat estimates by a penny and beat the revenue estimates. ($6.38 billion vs. estimates of 5.70 billion) Deutsche Securities has upped the stock to a "buy" on the report.

FYI: JCI recently split 2:1 on Jan. 5th.

A bounce from $60 might be a bullish entry point...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:55:44 PM
JDSU ... stop change alert ... changing stop to $4.96 from $4.98.

I typed it wrong on profile.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  12:54:07 PM
Might be a little too sweet for Aged Wards, James...

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  12:53:15 PM
I thought "nobody doesn't like Sara Lee"...evidently, A.G.Edwards does not like SLE and has downgraded the stock to a "hold". Shares are down 4.79% after reporting earnings that were inline but managed to beat the revenue estimates. The decline today is a breakdown under its simple 50-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:51:39 PM
SPX 1,147.00 -0.05% ... stuck its head back above WEEKLY R1, but that's been it. No program premium alerts at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:47:54 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,670.04 +0.17% ... still off its morning and 52-week high of 6,680.01. I'm thinking it is going to take 6,685 to trigger some broader market bullishness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:44:23 PM
JDSU $5.11 -4.98% ... my pulse stock for the QQQ today as a stock that might show "strength from the bottom." Red #4 here at $5.11, Red #5 lower at $5.01. See that little "dip" below $5.00? I'm thinking that that might have been market makers going after some stops just below the $5.00 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:42:50 PM
QQQ $38.45 +0.18% ... backing off that $38.51. That's the "magic" number for resistance isn't it?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:40:56 PM
SPX 1,148.32 +0.06% ... back above WEEKLY R1 here, just fractions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:40:08 PM
Holy cra... QQQ $38.48 ... back to test $38.51. Sniiiif, sniiiif

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:37:17 PM
Day trade long alert .... JDSU $5.10 here, stop $4.96, target $5.30.

See those two BIG volume spikes on 5-minute chart at $5.01?

Remember my ill-advised short just below $4.94?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:33:54 PM
QQQ $38.40 +0.03% ... last 30-minute lows have found support at $38.27.... sniiiiiiiiif, sniiiiiif.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:31:07 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,638.88 +0.14% .... market psychology might be getting a little bullish lift.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:28:29 PM
SPX 1,146.55 -0.09% .... didn't quite get a test of WEEKLY R1 (1,148.04). To get a program. prem. alert, I think the SPX needs to at least trade that level to generate some computer activity.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  12:25:19 PM
Bush is currently speaking live about the war on terror

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:24:04 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:15:45 PM
Wanted to keep an eye on the NYSE Comp. (NYA.X) 6,669.42 +0.16% ... bugger pulled right back to its 60-minute reverse head/shoulder objective and caught a bid.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:13:24 PM
QQQ $38.35 -0.06% .... sniff, sniff, sniff. Is this a rally I'm smelling?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:07:20 PM
Autozone (AZO) $86.48 +0.49% Link ... upside alert I had set here at AZO's MONTHLY Pivot.

What's Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) $41.88 +0.19% Link doing?

What's Mr. Auriana doing? Link (AAP split 2:1 since)

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  12:06:32 PM
Doctors remove 175-pound tumor from woman. Really! That was not the largest ever. That honor goes to a woman in 1991 that had a 302-pound tumore removed and made a full recovery. I cannot even comprehend these facts. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  12:06:17 PM
Plot thickens here.... haven't had a sell program premium alert since 10:55.

Is market "sold out" now? I think we'll find out should SPX 1,146.66 near its WEEKLY R1 (1,148.04)

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  12:03:49 PM
AOL said today it is testing a new caller ID system for email that would prevent anyone from sending email from other than their own address. Currently the biggest spam problem comes from spammers "spoofing" other peoples addresses to send billions of emails. The most recent type of email spoofing sends an email to the next person on the list using the prior name on the list as the sender. If the list had email addresses A, B, C, D, E, etc, person B would be sent a spam email purportedly from person A. Person C would get one from person B, D from C, E from D and so on. This prevents any one address from being blacklisted and keeps the spam filters from recognizing the same message even if it gets 100 of them. The subject line is also "randomized" with random words or phrases being used to prevent the filters from keying on specific phrases like Viagra, mortgage, sex, etc. AOL is preparing to test this caller ID system on its 33 million accounts. It has already inked agreements with Hotmail, Yahoo and other big email sources to use the system if it works. Thank you AOL!!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  11:57:30 AM
QQQ $38.25 -0.35% ... here's intra-day chart of QQQ, which is 5-minute interval. Same chart in last night's Index Trader Wrap, but intra-day view. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  11:46:18 AM
AP News is saying the judge in the Martha Stewart case has given up on trying to find jurors that have not heard about the case and is currently just trying to find 12 people who have not already decided she is guilty or thinks she is still a domestic diva. Going to be a tough search since the publicity has polarized most New Yorkers into either extreme. Ironic since most New Yorkers pride themselves on complete indifference to anything but pizza.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/22/200,  11:46:03 AM
From the Get Real column - Florida's Department of Citrus's (Florida has a Citrus department) lawyer is reviewing legal options against some books, such as "The South Beach Diet," that discourage orange juice for dieting purposes because of its high sugar levels. About $1.8 million will be spent on a marketing campaign to combat the bad image caused by low-carb diets. "There are powerful, negative messages against us," said Bob Crawford, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. "We're not going to stand and take it." Too funny!

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  11:41:48 AM
Schwab - Schwab also announced today that they ended 2003 with the highest profit since the market peak in 2000 at 11 cents per share. Last year they posted a -6 cent loss for the same period. Earnings were inline and represented the strongest quarter since Q1-2000 and the market top. Schwab has laid off -10,000 employees since then.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  11:37:20 AM
Schwab (SCH) said they are looking for acquisition candidates to spur their growth. They admitted today they were in contact with Toronto Dominion. TD said Sunday they called off merger talks with Etrade. TD has also talked with Ameritrade. Just yesterday TD said the merger door was closed and they planned to keep the Waterhouse brokerage arm. Must be a revolving door.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  11:33:18 AM
Oil prices are likely to rise again after raging blizzards closed Turkey's Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to all shipping traffic. There were already long delays from bad weather and that weather is worsening. The straights carry 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Officials said it could be several days before normal traffic resumed. With oil hitting $36 on Tuesday, off slightly today, this is just one more pinch in the pipeline. One oil trader on CNBC this morning was predicting $40 oil in the near future. For ever $1 per barrel U.S. consumers will spend an extra $1 billion per month for energy. With the target price at $25 the current $35 is costing us an extra $10 billion per month in an undeclared energy tax.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  11:24:47 AM
SAP predicted software sales would rise +10% in 2004 and mark the end of two years of cost cutting in the sector. SAP believes that IT spending will rise in 2004 and the company has hiked spending and hiring to accomadate this trend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  11:10:06 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  11:02:23 AM
Biotech play and current OI call GENZ is building on yesterday's gains with another 3.1% jump today. There doesn't appear to be any company specific news.

GILD isn't faring quite so well. The stock opened higher and then faded creating what could be a potential reversal pattern.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  10:59:05 AM
Current OI call play DGX also has earnings on Tuesday, Jan. 27th. However, we might suggest traders begin to start taking profits off the table now. Shares have continued to out perform the major indices but they're looking overbought here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:58:35 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,145.87 ... QQQ = $38.27.

I count 7 sell prog. prem. alerts at this point. 0 buy prog. prem. alerts.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  10:57:08 AM
Another OI call play pulling back to its simple 10-dma is APOL. The $72.50 to $73.00 levels should be the first level of support for APOL so this might be a potential entry point building.

 
 
  James Brown   1/22/200,  10:55:34 AM
The strong earnings results from EBAY last night has failed to energize fellow Internet bluechip AMZN. Shares of AMZN are bouncing from its simple 10-dma as traders step in to buy the dip. Earnings for AMZN are next Tuesday on Jan. 27th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:54:05 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,146.34 ... QQQ = $38.34

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:52:26 AM
SPX 1,146.85 -0.06% ... just sitting here at its WEEKLY 19.1% retracement of 1,146.84 and WEEKLY R1 1,148.04, which is a little "zone" that served some sloppy resistance yesterday, and sloppy support today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:48:20 AM
QQQ $38.35 -0.10% .... back lower after "bounce" back to $38.51. This $38.51 is the QQQ's WEEKLY 38.2% retracement. It's also where I profiled yesterday's after-hours bullish swing trade.

What this now has me thinking is that for QQQ to start showing some strength, then a trade at $38.54 is going to be an intra-day point to start looking.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:44:10 AM
Bulls just dying to be long Service Corp. (SRV) $6.79 +3.92% Link after that triple-top buy signal and break of trend at $4.00.

Another stock with an "unreal" bullish vertical count developing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:38:46 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $69.10 +0.84% ... off session highs of $69.39, but at this point, doesn't show impact of the sell programs we've been seeing. Bulls hope this is a sign that stock isn't weighted for program selling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:37:05 AM
QQQ'S 5-mrt Lower 5-MRT has Red #4 at $38.28, which is pretty close to QQQ WEEKLY Pivot of $38.27.

This becomes a rather important intra-day level of support in my opinion.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  10:36:21 AM
The put to call ratio jumped to .98 for the past half hour, VXO way up to 14.99, a 3.8% move, so it looks like they're paying big for puts this morning. That looks bullish to me at first glance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:33:37 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,146.56 ... QQQ = $38.33

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:29:11 AM
Sell Program Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,146.54 (below WEEKLY R1) .... QQQ = $38.37 (nearing WEEKLY Pivot)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:28:36 AM
NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

Programmable logic XLNX and ALTR showing strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:26:17 AM
Keeping track ... QQQ $38.47 +0.26% ... OK.. I'm just now realizing QQQ high of $38.69 was today's DAILY R1 and while the 09:35:26 sell program premium alert I typed showed QQQ $38.62, I think it rather obvious what that sell program was about.

At this point, session low in QQQ has been $38.39, not quite its DAILY Pivot of $38.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:19:28 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:07:34 AM
Jane (09:57:15) ... I saw that! Palladium futures went bonkers to the upside yesterday and SWC $12.06 +9.23% Link caught a nice little bid.

PAL $9.44 +7.02% Link getting a bid today too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:05:44 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,148.31 ... QQQ= $38.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:04:48 AM
QQQ $38.51 .... session high has been $38.69, but now looks to backfill this morning's gap higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  10:02:53 AM
Ryland Group (RYL) $79.33 -0.12% ... after gap higher to $80.95, now backfilling morning gap.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  10:00:08 AM
Leading Indicators +0.2% and inline with estimares.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/22/200,  9:57:15 AM
Jeff SWC is $11.90 - good call on that one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  9:57:15 AM
The Fed has announced an 8.5B overnight repo, which is a large repo but vastly insufficient to cover the expiring 28B remaining. So, 15.5B in fresh intervention money has been added to cover 35B expiring, for a net drain of 19.5B. I would expect this magnitude of drains to provoke a selloff somewhere, but I personally don't expect it- we've seen huge, huge amounts of intervention from the BoJ this month, and the USD Index is around 10 bps away from its previous bottom. In other words, don't bet on the Fed's repo drain alone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:52:48 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $69.00 +0.69% Link .... "X gets the square at $69" as demand looks to be outstripping supply.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:44:47 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,071.07 +0.24% .... getting a boost from AMR +6.87%, DAL +3.89%, CAL +1.53%, JBHT +1.45%, LUV +1.32%. Weakness is NSC -0.86%, CSX -0.48%, R -0.47%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:42:24 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 349.77 +0.08% .... edging above its MONTHLY R1.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:41:12 AM
After sell program .... SPX = 1,149.36 and QQQ= $38.65.

appears to have been gobbled up by bulls, or hungry bears looking for cover.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:38:37 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $42.20 +1.36% Link .... Trade at $42.00 now has PnF chart giving the "bear trap" pattern. Vertical count now back higher to preliminary count of $55.

The "bear trap" pattern on a PnF chart is depicted by a stock giving a triple-bottom sell signal, violating by just 1 box, then quickly reversing back higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:35:26 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,149.28 ... QQQ = $38.62

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:21:50 AM
QQQ $38.53 as we approach the opening bell. It looks like we may trade sideways ($38.27-$38.60) into the 10:00 AM release of leading indicators.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/200,  9:17:12 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/22/200,  9:13:36 AM
Layoffs appeared to be subsiding. The number of workers filing initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 last week and the four-week moving average hit a three-year low. Economists believe the labor market is recovering, albeit gradually, from a three-year slump for jobless claims have held below 400,000 for 16 consecutive weeks. Anything below that level is widely seen as an indication of an improving labor market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  9:13:01 AM
A 7B 14-day repo has been announced. We await the 10AM announcement to see what the Fed intends to do with its remaining 28B in expiring repurchase agreements for today. If it does nothing, 28B in liquidity will drain from the system. That is highly unlikely- I expect the Fed to pony up fresh funds to replace at least part of it.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/22/200,  9:08:55 AM
More than two years ago the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the last recession began in March 2001, on President George W. Bush's watch. But the NBER committee is considering whether to make the date earlier, possibly as early as November 2000, falling within the Democratic presidency of Bill Clinton. An earlier official recession date would give Republicans added ammo for election-year stump speeches, though it wouldn't alter the facts of a job market downturn that was the worst since the Great Depression. Does anyone really care that the recession started in a Republican presidency or a Democratic presidency other than politicians? And is there anyone out there dumb enough to think the public would be swayed by this kind of arcane rhetoric.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/22/200,  9:04:58 AM
From the And the Beat Goes On column - Accompanied by a pair of lawyers, Richard A. Causey, Enron Corp.'s former top accountant walked into the Houston office of the FBI just before daybreak and surrendered to federal authorities. Mr. Causey is facing charges stemming from the Justice Department's two-year Enron investigation. Since the Fastows, Andrew and Lea, pleaded guilty in their separate cases, authorities were moving on to Mr. Causey. Like Mr. Fastow, Mr. Causey reported directly to former Enron chief executives Kenneth Lay and his successor, Jeffrey Skilling. Messrs. Causey and Fastow split financial duties at Enron and were at the same management level. It wasn't clear what charges Mr. Causey would face.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/200,  9:02:22 AM
Linda is out today with illness in her family.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  8:38:04 AM
Average duration of unemployment was 19.6 weeks, close to a 20-year high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  8:35:50 AM
Initial claims -1000 to 341K, 4 wk MA to a 3 year low of 344,500.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/22/200,  7:28:42 AM
We await initial claims at 8:30, exp 345K, and leading indicators for December at 10AM, exp +.2%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  10:13:59 PM
Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 11,086.60 +0.77% Link ... session low/high so far has been 11,043.18-11,115.13.

No change on the point and figure chart at this point.

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,623.62 Link as a comparison PnF chart.

Goodness me! Hong Kong's Hang Seng Link was on fire Wednesday. I'm just seeing that the Chinese government said Chinese GDP grew a stronger than expected 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2003.

That GDP data might explain why Palladium futures exploded today.

Wonder what those MSCI Hong Kong iShares (EWH) are doing? Link . Them buggers are on the move since our 10/12/03 Ask the Analyst column Link . Hey! They've rallied right to $11.5017.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/21/200,  9:10:45 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

It is VERY RARE that I will profile an after-hours trade like I did Wednesday evening in any security (like I did in the QQQ), but after quickly updating the QQQ's Daily pivot matrix levels and seeing a DAILY R1 of $38.03 (close to Wednesday's low of $38.00) I felt it worth the risk to trade long the QQQ at $38.51 (our WEEKLY 38.2% retracement of $38.51) in front of tomorrow's economic data.

The "opportunity risk" of a gap higher open to $38.93 and WEEKLY R1 was something I weighed heavily, but with INDU/SPX/OEX closing above their WEEKLY 38.2% retracement levels, I thought it worth the risk.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   1/21/200,  8:57:51 PM
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