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  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  6:01:18 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  5:46:18 PM
Excellent note Jim at 17:21:50 .... will touch on this in tonight's Index Trader Wrap as it relates to this Link

Day 1 and now counting.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  5:42:45 PM
Jonathan That was a funny picture you showed at 16:06:38. Who is sitting in the chair with his head chopped off?

Spot gold closed 414.60 and trading $409.40 here. $400.00 gold may well be the key level of support. Link

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  4:01:30 PM
Earnings after the close:

ATVI est +0.66, act = +0.79 beat raising guidance
AFFX est +0.23, act = +0.26 beat
ASKJ est +0.11, act = +0.14 beat
CHIR est +0.29, act = +0.29 inline
CYTC est +0.17, act = +0.17 inline
DCLK est +0.02, act = +0.03 beat raising guidance
FDRY est +0.16, act = +0.17 beat
ISSX est +0.14, act = +0.14 inline
ISIL est +0.18, act = +0.18 inline
JDSU est -0.02, act = -0.01 proforma, -0.04 gap
MSPD est -0.16, act = -0.15 beat
OSTK est -0.25, act = -0.19 beat
PHTN est +0.00, act = +0.06 guided flat to lower
PLCM est +0.15, act = +0.17 beat
VARI est +0.40, act = +0.40 inline
VRTS est +0.24, act = +0.24 guiding lower
WBSN est +0.19, act = +0.19 inline
DRIV est +0.16, act = +0.16 inline
AMKR est +0.10, act = +0.13 beat
PHM est +1.88, act = +1.95 beat, raising guidance
LSI est +0.04, act = +0.06 beat
PKI est +0.22, act = +0.24 beat
HIG est +1.47, act = +1.59 beat guiding flat
STM est +0.16, act = never announced
WWY increasing dividend and buyback program
RLRN declaring a special $2.10 dividend.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  4:00:02 PM
Benchmark VXN.X 24.96 +8.42% ... QQQ = $37.16 (off lows of $37.004)

This might be the near-term "floor" of support in the Q's from past option trade observations. (buying $38 puts, selling $37 puts)

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:59:57 PM
Those Keltner channels are getting stretched further and further. These want to achieve an equilibrium position with all the channels lined up nicely inside each other, and there will eventually be some momentum to line them up that way. I don't know if that will occur first thing tomorrow morning, but it's going to occur sometime or another. OEX central support is descending quickly, now down to 566.72, but the danger remains that the longer the channels remain stretched this way and the more stretched they are, the more force behind the OEX as it's catapulted from this tightly drawn slingshot.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:47:21 PM
A couple of indices either test or are close to testing their 30-dma's, with the NDX 30-dma at 1489.06 and the Dow at 10,442.19. In the case of the NDX, the 72-ema looks more important, with that average at 1441, but I certainly wouldn't rule out an interim bounce from the 30-dma. The TRAN has dropped all the way to its 50-dma, a supporting average for this index since June. The TRAN's big-range red candle today suggests that this index could see a small-range candle tomorrow that attempts (but maybe fails) to recoup the losses. Oscillators still look bearish for this index.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:46:43 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $41.77 -1.76% .... swing trade bearish , stop $43.70, target $40.00

Express Scripts (ESRX) $69.51 -0.5% ... Swing trade bullish, stop $64.95, target $75.00.

Are the only two positions I currently have open.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:44:28 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.28 ...

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:43:50 PM
Swing trade close alert .... Avaya (AV) $18.27 +18.62% ... just off new session high of $18.41, but so close to my $18.50 target, lets move to the sidelines instead of risking a gap lower tomorrow morning. (+1.37, or 8.11%)

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:36:15 PM
All those regression channels--the ascending one on the Dow, the descending one on the NDX--are gone now, with cascading declines out of them. My only worry is that the further stretched those Keltner bands get to the downside, the more possible a quick snap upward (oversold bounce) could be.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  3:35:40 PM
...A little foreshadowing for the stock market??? *grin*

Whale explodes

TAIPEI -- A dead sperm whale being transported through Tainan City suddenly exploded yesterday, splattering cars and shops with blood and guts.

The 17m, 45-tonne carcass was being taken on a flat-bed trailer-truck for an autopsy. "Because of the natural decomposing process, a lot of gases accumulated, and when the pressure build-up was too great, the whale's belly just exploded," marine biologist Professor Wang Chien-ping said. Link

  James Brown   1/28/200,  3:31:50 PM
Winning sectors have dwindled to just the Utilities (UTY.X +1.07%).

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:31:43 PM
The OEX falls out of the Keltner channels again. Those worried bears who I warned to watch stops haven't had to agonize any over those stops. The OEX dropped easily through the 38.2% retracement of the bear market decline, as if it wasn't a level to watch at all. On the way up 559.50 appeared to be more significant than the 561.23 level, which puzzled me at the time, but the OEX will soon be hitting that possible support. Below that 557 and 554.75 were possible support.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:30:15 PM
QQQ $37.25 -1.16% ... day trade bullish stop alert here. ($-0.15, or -0.4%)

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:29:43 PM
SPX 1,130.95 -1.14% ... session low here, violating MONTHLY R1

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:23:39 PM
Remember that OEX 561.23 is the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. We're approaching a possible strong support level here, although that level did not prove as important as resistance as I expected it to be. Perhaps that means it won't be as significant as support, either.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:16:45 PM
The OEX found first Keltner resistance near 563.80 too tough to overcome. In fact, the OEX never got quite to that level before turning down. Keltner resistance moves lower now, to 563.10 and then more strongly at 564.14-565.61. Those Keltner bands are trying to move down to catch up with the OEX, but it's still likely that the OEX will eventually (maybe not today) work its way back to the central point, now at 567.94 but declining fast.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  3:15:03 PM
The VXO (old VIX) is up 7.37% but still in its trend of lower highs. The new VIX has a bad tick to 40 and is currently trading up 7.55% to 16.49.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:13:30 PM
Jeff, it's interesting that the bad tick on the QQQ's was right up to the 60-minute 100-pma, which should now be resistance. I noticed another bad tick this morning right down to the 60-minute 130-pma, which should then have been support. In fact, I've noticed a number of bad ticks like that lately, right down to support or up to resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:09:11 PM
QQQ $37.54 -0.55% ... "bad tick" at $37.86. Battling WEEKLY S1 here. Hasn't been able to get a 5-minute close above WEEKLY S1 since falling below.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:08:12 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.20 -0.7% ... session low has been $41.78.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:07:20 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $70.09 +0.32% ... trying to hang in there. Session low has been $69.55.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:06:31 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.15 +17.78% ... holding tough. Afternoon low has been $17.83.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  3:04:51 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,135.81 -0.72% ... session low so far has been 1,131.97 (20-minutes ago). Just above MONTHLY R1 of 1,131.85.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  3:03:58 PM
The OEX is attempting to collect itself after falling far out of the Keltner channels. Keltner resistance now shows up at 563.84, but gathers much more thickly between 564.70-565.15. Eventually, the OEX should work itself back up to the middle of its Keltner channels, with that midline level now being 568.22, but falling. Be careful, daytrading OEX bears, as an index or stock that's been slung this far outside its Keltner channels sometimes gets catapulted right back to the top of the channels. It's that whole high-school physics thing at work here. The presumption, however, is that the OEX will continue to trade now in the bottom half of its Keltner channels, zig-zagging its way down to find and establish stronger support.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  3:01:07 PM
Linda, there's a setting in Outlook that allows you to add names of people to whom you reply to your contact list. Uncheck it.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  3:00:33 PM
Career Education Corp (CECO) is breaking down today, -5.11%, and breaking its multi-week up trend. This might offer a bearish trade to support near $42.50, just above its rising 200-dma. Earnings should be Feb. 3rd.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:59:02 PM
Sorry for my absence. Someone (inadvertently, I'm sure) nicely emailed me a virus. My computer took care of it, but now I'm running slow as I make sure by running my virus scans. I delete all subscribers email addresses from my contact list each day to avoid inadvertently passing on any viruses that are sent to me, and you might consider doing the same with our addresses, too.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:57:57 PM
QQQ $37.48 -0.78% ... just tested WEEKLY S1 of $37.53 as resistance.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  2:57:31 PM
A short-term bearish candidate might be BRL. This drug stock has found new resistance at its 50-dma last week and failed to break above it for the last several days. Now the stock looks weak and vulnerable to a move back toward the $70 level. Earnings should be February 5th.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  2:54:08 PM
AdvancePCS is quickly approaching its all-time highs just under $59.00. Will shares breakout? or will it form a double-top? Could be a stock to watch.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:51:01 PM
Day trade long alert .... QQQ $37.40 here, stop $37.25, target $37.70.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  2:50:38 PM
In yesterday's watch list we noted that IBM had painted a bearish harami candlestick pattern. Today's circumstances are leading to a follow through of that pattern and we can expect further weakness. There may be support at its 10-dma but I'd look for $95 to be stronger support.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:45:49 PM
Sector action bleeds red Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 561.10 -4.14%, Airlines (XAL.X) 64.06 -4.43%, TRANsports (TRAN) 2,981.38 -2.78%, Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 97.45 -1.53% lead losers.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:43:06 PM
buy/sell prog. prem. alerts are fast... keep alternating. Can't keep up.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  2:42:19 PM
Homebuilder update:

Lennar Corp (LEN) is trading at its lows for the day, down 5.3% in response to the new home sales numbers this morning. Volume isn't too strong but the stock looks vulnerable to additional selling.

Ryland Group (RYL) has rolled over as well, trading back below the $80 level but should have support at its 200-dma near 73.50.

Hovnanian (HOV) is down 5.2% at its lows for the session. There is some support at $72.50 but shares might be aiming for the $70 level or its 200-dma near $68.00.

Centex Corp (CTX), who has been out performing the group the last several days, is painting a nice big red candle, down 4.89%.

Toll Brothers (TOL) is really dropping fast, down 5.86% and back below the $40 level and its simple 50-dma.

KBH is down 5.18%. PHM is only down 3.5%. DHI is only down 2.38% but painting a bearish engulfing candlestick.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:40:22 PM
Avaya (AV) $17.93 +16.3% ....

Express Scripts (ESRX) $70.01 +0.22% ...

Newmont Miniing (NEM) $41.41 -0.77% ....

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:37:14 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X 524.06 +1.28% ...

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  2:30:41 PM
A sea of red candles with only the TNX, TRIN and VXO in the green: Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:30:19 PM
Warning to daytrading OEX bears. The OEX has punched through the bottom of the five-minute Keltner channels. Although it sometimes follows that downward trajectory for a while after doing so, that's usually a signal for a bounce of some dimension or other. Sometimes the bounce is weak, but sometimes the OEX is catapulted higher after such a break. Depends on how much bullish fervor remains. Watch your stops.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:28:53 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:27:34 PM
QQQ $37.47 -0.66% ... just below WEEKLY S1 here.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:26:55 PM
The NDX dropped through its 60-minute 100/130-pma's. It's testing the bottom of its descending regression channel. This should be a possible bounce point, but the bounce now might stop at the 60-minute 100-pma at 1522.66. Watching how quickly the OEX drops, I'm not so sure that the NDX will stop here, either, but it should. If not, it's really weak. Sure wish I'd had 20 or 30 OEX put contracts going into that meeting!

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:25:52 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 352.37 -0.42% ...

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:25:14 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 564.16 -0.52% ... breaks below WEEKLY Pivot of 565.81.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  2:24:47 PM
Post-fed announcement sector winners:

SOX, chips +1.51%
UTY, utilities +1.47%


DJUSHB builders: -2.43%
XAL airlines: -3.56%
XNG natural gas: -1.9%
OSX oil services: -1.66%

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:23:33 PM
Swing Trade Short alert .... Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.87 +0.84% here, stop $43.70, target $40.00.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  2:23:30 PM
Looks like there WAS a reason for that intervention this morning. Dropping the 'considerable period'phrase brought on some selling and it looks like the fed money is going to help stave that selling off

Yup, exactly. That was the surprise hinted at by the surprise repo-add this morning.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:22:35 PM
The OEX is back below the midline of its Keltner channels, turning down from that midline resistance. It's punched through a couple of levels of Keltner support on the way down, and appears to be headed toward the 566 level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:21:59 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:21:42 PM
BIG reversal in the AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 99.42 +0.45% taking place.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:20:46 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) MASSIVE reveral with selling in 10-year. YIELD jumping 9.6 basis points to 4.181%. Jumped from 4.05% in just 5 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:19:02 PM
The NDX has once again punched through its 60-minute 100-pma, but it's again at the level from which it's bounced twice already since Friday. No clarity yet. I think you could give equal thought to going long or short here, and could argue either direction with some validity.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:18:11 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,145.7, OEX = 568.12, QQQ = $37.85, BIX.X = 355.29

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:17:47 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.15 +17.78% ...

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  2:16:35 PM
Fed announcement: Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:15:11 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,146.31, OEX = 568.43, QQQ = $37.82, BIX.X = 355.60

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  2:14:42 PM
No rate change - no considerable period statement

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  2:12:47 PM
Reuters is reporting that Intel's COO just said he was very comfortable with the numbers for the 1Q.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:09:33 PM
As I scan charts, I see the Dow at midline 21-pma support on its 60-minute chart, and also just below the midline of the ascending regression channel in which it's been climbing since 1/13. I note the NDX just below its 60-minute 21-pma, but also in the middle of a regression channel--in this case, a descending regression channel that began forming on 1/20. Although plays from the middle to the outside of these regression channels can be profitable, it sure is more profitable to get in on a long play from support (in the case of an ascending channel) and on a short play at resistance (in the case of a descending one). The Dow's channel shows support just under 10,600, and the NDX's shows resistance near 1540.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  2:06:15 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... here quick intra-day type look at OEX on 10-minute intervals. Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  2:04:52 PM
Typically ahead of these announcements, the indices hold just under key resistance or just over key support, ready to move after the announcement. That's what's happened with the OEX, holding just under 569.40 much of the day. A few times in recent history, the move has begun just ahead of the announcement, but be aware that many, many times, the first reaction is not the final one.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:57:17 PM
Not that this will help with trader response to FOMC announcement, but if the BIX.X 356.35 +0.7% offers any clues at this point, it would be that the Fed language is going to remain "forseeable future."

Thought here is that a low rate environment is favorable for banks.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:47:13 PM
Swing trade raise stop alert ... raising profit stop in Avaya (AV) $18.30 +18.75% (BLUE #8) to $17.75 here (just below BLUE #6).

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  1:46:01 PM
There are several companies developing a "caller ID" email product which everyone will migrate to over the next couple years. Without the ability to "spoof" somebody's address to hide where the email came from SPAM will die the same death as obscene phone calls did when caller ID made them traceable. (famous last words)

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  1:45:01 PM
Once again, as it has many times today, the OEX tests the weekly pivot at 569.40, also testing the 30-minute 21-pma at the same time. Earlier today, this would have marked the neckline of the inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, but that formation should be considered defunct now as it's so misshapen. There isn't much information on these charts to give clues as to how these tests are going to be resolved, and since I don't have a direct line into that FOMC meeting and then to the trading desks to gauge the likely reaction to what I learned from listening in on the FOMC meeting, I'm not likely to ascertain much more until price action shows us the direction. (Note: As I typed, the OEX was inching above the weekly pivot at 569.40.)

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:41:57 PM
Hmm... this may be old news for some of you but check out this quote from a Microsoft spokesperson made last week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland..."We as a company believe that by a couple of years from now spam will be down to a very manageable trickle ... it will be almost an afterthought," (-CNN)

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  1:34:52 PM
We're approaching the stop-running period from 1:35-1:55, but I'm not sure whether too much is going to happen pre-FOMC meeting. That long period of equilibrium on the nested Keltner channels suggest that something will happen soon on the OEX.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:34:31 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.05 +17.1% ... BLUE #7 here.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:27:27 PM
Tech bulls might find it interesting that Bank of America started coverage on Juniper Networks (JNPR) with a "buy" and a $38 price target this morning.

JNPR is currently up 1.5% to $29.22 and has spent the last several days digesting its gains from its post-earnings gap higher.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  1:25:33 PM
The SOX appears to have found support on its 50-dma yesterday, as James suggested that it might do. I had thought it possible that it might dip all the way to its 72-ema, now at 504.80, but James's supposition proved correct. The daily oscillators are more bearish than bullish, however, and it's still consolidating just below its 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, with 30-minute and 60-minute oscillators being inconclusive.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:24:30 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 356.00 +0.61% ... upside alert I had set here yesterday.

SPX = 1,147.45 +0.29% and OEX = 568.92 +0.31% here.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:23:49 PM
Avon Products Inc (AVP) is looking more and more like a bearish candidate. Shares have broken its 200-dma and quickly approaching support at the $61.00 level. Earnings are expected on Feb. 3rd.

AVP's current P&F price target is $54.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  1:20:07 PM
I'm doing that trick where I turn my head away and then turn back to see if anything's moved. Nothing has on the OEX. Those Keltner channels are lined up almost perfectly, one inside the other with five-minute candles squeezed inside the smallest channel. I didn't think the OEX could hold on in this equilibrium position all the way into the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, but perhaps it can.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:13:47 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Looks like markets now in a holding pattern, perhaps a little defensive.

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  1:12:00 PM
CNBC doing an article on the MyDoom worm virus that started yesterday. According to some of the major email hubs 1 out of every 12 emails were infected. I personally received several hundred before we could get all the email virus filters updated to delete them at the server level. It was amazing. It just appeared and suddenly there was a flood and that flood turned into a torrent of emails. At one point last night around 9PM we were getting 15-20 per minute at the server level.

We have a list of outside addresses that we use to check delivery of the newsletters. Places like Yahoo, Hotmail, Earthlink, etc. At 7:30 last night it was taking nearly 3 hours for an email sent to Yahoo to appear. One email hub said it was deleting 1.5 billion virus emails an hour. This is beyond my comprehension. This suggests that millions of computers are infected and the denial of service attack set to trigger on Sunday will be the biggest ever.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:07:45 PM
Tenet Healthcare (THC) is one of the big losers today, down 14% after warning that its December quarter and full year 2004 numbers would be below estimates. The company is selling a large chunk of its hospitals in a massive restructuring program.

Merrill Lynch has issued a "sell" rating this morning for the stock. THC is trading up off its morning lows currently at $13.84.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:02:52 PM
yeah, watch out.. I think someone is spoofing Microsoft. I'm getting a few emails from Microsoft saying "update this patch immediately". Definitely smells like a virus because MSFT isn't going to email me a patch.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:02:24 PM
Hey! CNBC now talking about virus

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  1:01:53 PM
What's Symantec (SYMC) doing? My e-mail account is getting filled with what looks like virus attempts.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  1:01:23 PM
Airlines are seeing some turbulence (XAL -2.04%) as JetBlue Airways (JBLU) sinks 7.94%.

Goldman Sachs downgraded JBLU to an "under perform" this morning, one day ahead of JBLU's earnings report due out tomorrow morning before the bell. Estimates are for 17 cents a share.

Goldman's downgrade follows some negative comments from JPM made on January 8th.

Shares of JBLU are under the $25 level and barely holding support near $24.00.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  12:50:00 PM
Avaya (AV) $17.82 +15.63% ... back to challenge BLUE #6 of 5-MRT and session high of $17.97.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  12:48:09 PM
I would consider those potential inverse H&S's on the OEX and NDX five-minute charts defunct now. In the case of the OEX, the right-shoulder area has stretched out too far. In the case of the NDX, the index is dropping below the possible right-shoulder level. These had bullish price/MACD divergence as the heads were formed, but they unraveled nonetheless. This may be because of the FOMC meeting, so I'm not drawing too many conclusions, but it certainly tells us that on the short-term at least, that bullish fervor is not what it recently was.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  12:43:24 PM
GSTI Software (GSO.X) 160.47 -0.08% ... turns red here.

MENT -11.7% Link , CMRC -7.21% Link , TIBX -5.24% Link , SNPS -4.28% Link , ERTS -3.62% Link , WEBM -2.99% Link

NET +14.7% Link , NTIQ +7.5% Link , ISSX +6.36% Link , NOVL +2.4% Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  12:38:30 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $70.43 +0.81% .... Did get a relative strength buy signal vs. the QQQ yesterday. This suggests stock gaining favor. StockCharts changed things up a bit. To get a RS chart, all you do now is type ESRX:QQQ in the "Enter Ticker:" field. Here's the ESRX vs. QQQ RS chart. Link

You can do the same thing with a bar chart too. Like this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  12:32:40 PM
The GSO didn't continue testing its 30-minute 100/130-pma's for long this morning. In my 9:51 post, I noted that the GSO had tested those averages and fallen below them, but said I wasn't sure it was through testing them yet. That test continued only through the next 30 minutes, and then the GSO began falling away from that test. Does that predict that other tech-related indices might react the same way? I don't think you can necessarily extrapolate what's happening on the GSO to the SOX (testing its 60-minute versions before it can even move up to its 30-minute versions), but it can certainly shows us one possible outcome as the SOX tests its 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, the gap level from yesterday and the regression channel resistance. One note: that descending channel is so steep that I don't think it can be maintained for much longer. I think there's bound to be a breakout--sideways or up--at some point, with the SOX either establishing a new, less-steep channel; consolidating; or climbing.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  12:31:14 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  12:13:03 PM
The NDX remains trapped between its 60-minute 100-pma and its 60-minute 21-pma, a situation that looked likely earlier this morning. The 60-minute oscillators have flat-lined, not giving any clue as to ultimate direction, but this is what we could have expected.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  12:05:05 PM
Yesterday, I thought the OEX daily oscillators look inconclusive. RSI, always the earliest to react, had already been tugged down out of territory indicating overbought conditions. While the 21(3)3 stochastics had also rolled down, only the fast line had descended out of that territory. MACD was flat. If possible, the oscillators are even more inconclusive this morning. MACD remains flat. RSI has hooked back up, but only slightly, and stochastics are pretending that they never dipped a toe beneath that overbought line, drawing up both lines and flattening them. Of course, I haven't paid much attention to oscillators other than MACD for a while, but this is downright frustrating.

We haven't seen a break out of yesterday's inside-day formation yet. The OEX's candle today sits at the bottom of yesterday's range, but still . . . no breakdown or upside break out of that range. This is just the kind of action we expected to see today.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  12:01:51 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $22.02 -0.04% Link ... first SOX component to edge negative.

Got close to its current bullish vertical count of $26.00 in November (Red B).

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  11:57:06 AM
The OEX turned down once again from its test of its weekly pivot. The Keltner channels are showing a settling into an equilibrium state. Although that can be maintained for a period of time, it can't be indefinitely, and this usually is followed by a breakout one direction or the other. I'm not sure I've ever seen the Keltner channels stay in this state for a period as long as it will be until the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, so I'm not sure the breakout will hold off until then.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  11:49:15 AM
Altria (MO) $55.56 +0.98% ... reported quarterly EPS of $1.06, which was in line with consensus of $1.06. Revenues rose 10.2% year-over-year to $20.691 billion, which was above consensus estimates of $19.633 billion.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  11:38:48 AM
The NDX moved down into what could be the right shoulder area of a possible inverse H&S on the five-minute chart. If that's what it is, we should see the NDX steady off pretty soon, before 1522. This inverse H&S is almost as rough as the one I mentioned earlier on the OEX. Each sports bullish price/MACD divergence,however. The OEX version grows even rougher, however, and the only thing keeping me watching it is the congruence of the possible neckline with the weekly pivot. That congruence seems a bit too coincidental to be ignored.

It's been my belief that what we might see today was a steadying ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, as it was of some of the other commentators, and that's proven true so far. The OEX is steadying just above its 60-minute 21-pma and at its central Keltner channel support, while the NDX is steadying just below both, but each index remains at a level that could be considered a test of rather than a breach of or roll down below the key levels.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  11:28:04 AM
I really love your commentary on the fed repo activity. I have always watched the newswire for the adds each day, but I never knew how to offset that by the expiring repos. Where do you find that information?

It is extremely interesting that we have a relatively large gain ahead of the meeting today.

Thanks! Yes, it is extremely interesting. I don't know what Al Green's planning on saying, but it's rare for the Fed to conduct any open market ops at all on an announcement day. That looks strange to me, and is the first Fed surprise of the day, hinting possibly at more surprises to come.

I track the net activity by adding and substracting from the following Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  11:13:33 AM
The NDX now sports its own version of a possible inverse H&S on the five-minute chart. The neckline is an ascending one. Projecting it out to early afternoon (about the time of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting) shows the neckline just above 1530, with an upside target about 10 points above the neckline break. The problem is that the weekly pivot will be lurking just above the neckline break (1535.91, according to Q-charts), possibly waiting to ambush bulls who jump into a bullish play on a neckline break. Several other measures show the 1530-1532 level to be the most important and for a breakout over that level to be significant, but I don't think I'd like to ignore that weekly pivot when deciding whether to enter a bullish play and at what level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  11:12:22 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:54:21 AM
Yesterday's SOX losers have NVLS +0.34% Link , ALTR +1.24% Link , MXIM +2.34% Link , TXN +2.26% Link in early going.

Yesterday's winner in MU +6.49% Link talking on a nice gain.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:53:11 AM
Several commentators have mentioned the SOX strength today. That strength gapped the SOX up this morning and sent it charging toward its 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, with those averages grouping from 531-534. It should be slower going for the SOX now, and the grouped 30-minute 100/130-pma's at 534.03 and 534.46 should prove particularly tough to overcome. In addition to the resistance offered by the 100/130-pma's across the two time frames, the SOX must also battle gap resistance from yesterday's gap down. The SOX has been in a descending regression channel since 1/20, and this morning's action pierced the top of that channel, with the SOX now falling back slightly into the channel. Does all that mean that the SOX can't bridge that resistance and climb out of that descending channel? No. It means that the presumption is that the SOX will turn down ahead of one of those resistance levels and that the SOX is going to have to show a lot of strength to surmount them instead, with gains possibly being explosive if it should prove successful.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:48:14 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.97 +0.31% ... session low/high 353.61-355.36.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:42:44 AM
The NDX has now bounced up from its 60-minute 100-pma and is challenging the 21-pma on that chart. The MACD has made a bullish cross from below signal, and, in doing so, has tucked up its lines so that it's now showing bullish price/MACD divergence at Friday's and yesterday's equal lows. Things are looking better on this index now, but it's got that 21-pma and then the weekly pivot at 1535.91 (according to Q-charts) to get through, so I'm still wondering about the trapped-between-important-levels scenario into the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  10:42:42 AM
Those sectors seeing the strongest bounce are:

SOX semiconductor index: +2.57%
INX Internet index: +1.24%
DDX Disk drive index: +0.99%
BTK biotech index: +0.97%
IUX Insurance index: +1.07%

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:42:08 AM
TRAN 3,012.75 -0.94% ... also shows TRAN falling below the bottom of our upward trending regression channel. This is first time since the March lows that this upward trend has been pierced. Has been tested once (late Sept. 2003), twice (11/21/03), three (12/10/03) and four-times (01/13/04) and held.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  10:41:19 AM
Only a handful of sector indices are lower this morning...

DJUSHB home builders: -2.26%
XAL airlines index: -1.99%
XNG natural gas index: -1.08%
OSX oil services index: -1.22%
TRAN Dow transports: -0.99%

  James Brown   1/28/200,  10:38:12 AM
Current OI call play ESRX, which did not pull back with the market dip yesterday, is showing additional strength today with a breakout over the $70 mark.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:36:20 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,649 +0.37% ... traders in the futures monitor talkig about "shorts hammering away" at this level.

This is right where INDU found resistance at approx. 02:30 PM EST yesterday, but was also some resistancet on 01/22/03. We looked at a close-up of this level in last night's Index Trader Wrap and in yesterday's Market Monitor. Link

  James Brown   1/28/200,  10:36:10 AM
Biotech/Drug-stock Allergan Inc (AGN) reported earnings this morning and the numbers were in-line with estimates. Unfortunately, they guided lower 3-4 cents for the current quarter. Shares are down 3% to $82.50 on profit taking and below its simple 10-dma yet up off its early morning lows. The $81.75-82.00 level was very strong resistance for months, which should now act as support followed by round-number support at $80.

Considering its earnings warning traders may want to wait and see if support will hold.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:34:33 AM
Thanks, Jeff, for the specific information on the TRAN components responsible for the TRAN weakness today. Jeff is our resident expert on this type of thing, and I regularly print up charts he's posted on component stocks or indices to watch. If any of you missed his wrap last night, you might check it now, and print up the listing of important indices he included.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:32:43 AM
The OEX tested the neckline of that roughly formed inverse H&S (I think--it's so roughly formed that it's difficult to say for sure), and also the weekly R1 at 569.40. It's turning back now from that test, perhaps to form a second right shoulder or perhaps in a rejection of the pattern. The advdec line is falling, but still remains strong. The TRIN is rising, but is not bearish yet. It's just difficult to make any predictions in this climate, and we've seen other FOMC days when patterns would set up and then just dissolve or be momentarily confirmed only to see the market in question turn around again. I'm watching, but don't have any firm conclusions yet except that it might be hazardous to assume anything you're seeing is the "real thing."

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:29:53 AM
Per Linda's 10:26:30 TRAN components showing weakness are CSX -2.7%, JBHT -1.96%, NWAC -1.81%, NSC -1.67%. Only two in positive with ALEX +0.15% and SCST +1.12%.

  James Brown   1/28/200,  10:27:12 AM
Interesting... Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) missed earnings by 3 cents and revenues were lower than expected in its pre-market report. There was no gap down for the stock but shares quickly fell to its simple 40-dma....and just as quickly bounced back. The stock is only down 1 cent. Looks like a bullish hammer (one-day reversal) candlestick.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:26:30 AM
The TRAN opened today below the rising trendline that's been supporting its prices for so long, as well as beneath its 21-pma. Currently it tests its 30-pma, an average it hasn't tested since mid-December. The TRAN's strongest support on its climb has been at its 50-dma, however, an average that tracked its rising trendline for a while, but which has now fallen below that trendline, to 2974.81. I speculated yesterday that the TRAN was looking a bit tired and that it might be time for it to dip down and test that average again, but 3000 support might prove too strong. Instead, the TRAN might just consolidate sideways a while longer while the 50-dma plays catch up. As I type, the TRAN is at 3019.55.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:22:46 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X 527.72 +1.98% ... just sticking its nose above WEEKLY 61.8% here.

QQQ $37.98 +0.63% doing the same above its WEEKLY 61.8% of $37.97.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:19:43 AM
The NDX clings this morning to its 60-minute 100-pma (at 1522.83), the average from which it bounced on Friday. It violated this average in the last hour of trading yesterday, but hauled itself back above it this morning. It's not looking strong yet, and not rebounding as prices often do after safely pulling back above this average. Instead, it so far seems trapped beneath another average, the 21-pma at 1530.55. As that 100-pma was tested yesterday, CCI showed bullish divergence with the price, but none of the other oscillators did. They're trying to hook up now, but not being entirely successful yet. I'm not sure where this is going to go, but since this is a FOMC meeting day, it's possible that it's not going to go much of anywhere, but stay trapped between those averages until the conclusion of the meeting, by which point, the 21- and 100-pma's should be close to touching each other and the NDX will be forced to go somewhere.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:16:01 AM
Avaya (AV) $17.46 +13.3% ... off session high of $17.97 (BLUE #6 at $17.81). Now an AV bull needs the INDU or SPX/OEX even the QQQ to get their fannies in gear and give a push.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  10:09:16 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  10:05:52 AM
The OEX five-minute chart displays a roughly formed possible inverse H&S, complete with price/MACD bullish divergence. It's so roughly shaped that I'm not sure it has any validity, but since the neckline (perhaps--depending on how it's drawn) lies near that 569-569.40 resistance zone, with the weekly R1 at 569.40, I'm paying attention to it anyway.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  10:02:37 AM
10:01am U.S. 2003 MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE UP 3.1% TO $193,400


  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  10:00:50 AM
Home sales 1.06M, below expectations.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  9:59:13 AM
The Fed has announced a large 9B overnight repo, for a net 5.5B addition. That's out of the ordinary for an FOMC announcement day, and I'm wondering why they're boosting reserves for today.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  9:58:24 AM
Awaiting home sales data in 2 mins.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  9:57:11 AM
As predicted by the five-minute nested Keltner channels I watch, the OEX did rise up toward 568.90-569.30 this morning, where the index did find resistance. The five-minute stochastics are now showing bearish crosses, so now we can see if the downside has any traction as the Keltner channels predict a turn down to 567.33-567.70 and then to 565.87. That lower number has some congruence to the 30-minute 100-pma at 565.84. I'm not sure I believe the OEX will get that downside traction going, though. If it did, I would be surprised to see a fall through that 30-minute 100-pma ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting if the OEX is going to eventually push below it. Rather, I would expect some consolidation at that level.

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  9:56:10 AM
INSP - On the winning side INSP is up +6.75

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  9:54:33 AM
Ryan Air (RYAAY) down -13,71. Looks like an undeclared 3:2 stock split with the -28% drop.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:54:24 AM
Exress Scripts (ESRX) $70.07 +0.3% ...

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  9:53:02 AM
TASR - here is something you do not see often. TASR down -2.80.

  Jim Brown   1/28/200,  9:52:03 AM
CAM getting pounded this morning down -5.70.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  9:51:39 AM
This morning, the GSO, the GSTI Software Index, reached up to test its 30-minute 100-pma, and then fell back through both it and the 130-pma. That's bearish action on the surface, but I'm not so sure the GSO is through trying yet. The 30-minute oscillators are trying to turn up again. My assumption is that the bounce is a reflexive bounce that began at the double-bottom area as some bought the dip, and that the GSO might continue to test that 30-minute 100-pma, now at 162.05, as those oscillators cycle up and relieve some oversold pressure. If the GSO should manage to break back above that 100-pma, then it might try for 163.20-163.70, the likely site of a descending trendline off the 1/21 high throughout the day. It's not my intention to trade a software stock today, but rather I'm watching this index and the SOX as measures of strength/weakness for the NDX.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:49:02 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X 525.90 +1.63% .... just off a test of its WEEKLY 61.8% retracement (527.59). (see last night's Index Trader Wrap) Link

QQQ = $37.90 +0.45%.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  9:46:26 AM
There's an overnight repo of 3.5B expiring today. Often, the Fed announces "no action" on the day of an announcement, which in this case would result in a net 3.5B drain. We await the 10AM announcement.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  9:41:32 AM
We've seen a slowdown at the OEX 568.90-569.33 Keltner resistance band, as expected, but there hasn't yet been much of a recoil from them. That slowdown is happening while the five-minute oscillators try to cycle up, however, so unless the OEX can get some traction going to the upside, the typical first morning retracement that usually begins a couple of minutes from now should begin as those five-minute oscillators turn down again with the OEX still below that resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:37:24 AM
Swing trade long alert ... Avaya (AV) $16.90 here, stop $15.95, target $18.50. Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  9:34:58 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 567.15 to 569.10, with a midpoint at 568.13, and with the OEX currently above that midpoint, indicating strength in the earliest trading. The OEX approached gathered Keltner resistance between 568.90-569.23, so I would expect a slowdown here. At least I would have expected it before the market opened! Let's see what happens now.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:32:30 AM
Network Associates (NET) $18.00 +11.7% Link ... jumping after earnings. This one ticks me off as I was looking for a bullish entry yesterday. However, didn't profile the trade as company was supposed to report earnings during market hours, didn't, and I think intra-day reversal had traders (me included) that there might have been some type of "last minute" error found. Not the case and stock jumping to new highs.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:29:51 AM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $27.50 Link ... higher at $27.77 after Banc of Amer. Sec. starts coverage with "buy" rating. BofA places a 2004 EPS estimates of $0.73 on the company, which is above consensus' $0.71. BofA said it expects consensus to start tracking estimates higher as enterprise spending increases.

  Jane Fox   1/28/200,  9:25:01 AM
Amid MarketWatch's co-founder and newsletter writer Thom Calandra resignation for his refusal to turn over trading records to the SEC, MarketWatch.com is now requiring its financial journalists and senior executives to register all their stock trades with the company and will soon unveil stricter rules on its journalists' disclosure of stock ownership to readers. While much of the new policy, such as a minimum three-month holding period for stocks, had been in the works for nearly a year, the plan to make spot checks of journalists' trading came in response to Mr. Calandra's resignation. The company's roughly 40 journalists and about 10 senior managers will be subject to the random audits, which is likened to drug tests.

  Jeff Bailey   1/28/200,  9:22:01 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  9:19:36 AM
Yesterday saw inside-day candles created on the Dow, SPX, and OEX. Those inside day candles retraced more than 50% of the previous day's tall white candles on all the indices, so the action has a slightly negative connotation. Those of you who trade inside days know that you want to be looking for a break over yesterday's high or low as a signal to go long or short. In my case, I'm not so sure I feel buying that breakout signal, if it should occur to the long side, would be the best idea, as any intention to go long might be safer from a lower level. Since the Nasdaq looked far weaker on the daily chart yesterday, I'm worried that weak tech stocks might impede any breakout from traveling far. In truth, I counsel caution in front of the FOMC meeting as it's possible that indices will get nailed just under important resistance or just over important support and sit there until the announcement, while volatility leaks out of the options. Any breakout might be quickly tamped back, and the immediate breakout after the announcement might not be the final reaction.

The OEX ended the day just below the 60-minute 21-pma with the likelihood then being that it would retrace down toward 565.80 (the important 30-minute 100-pma), but until the last few minutes of trading, it was still within the range where we might have considered it testing that average rather than violating it. It's possible that in investors' rush to exit, the OEX simply overshot that moving average a bit. Neither the 30-minute nor the 60-minute oscillators yet indicate any upturn, but we know that can change in a flash. The Keltner channels also indicated a likelihood that the OEX could hit 566, too, but as the day ended, the OEX was just touching the last Keltner support ahead of that 566 level, looking as if it then might bounce up toward 568.90-569.20 before turning down toward 566. If the OEX does bounce up toward 568.90-569.20 this morning, that's the first level I'll be watching with some care, as it represents the central average of the Keltner channels I watch. An index that's traveling through the upper portion of the Keltner channels is traveling up and an index that's traveling through the lower half is traveling down, so a firm cross above that central Keltner support might change the tenor that was established yesterday.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  8:31:24 AM
Durable goods for Dec. unchanged.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  8:30:41 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   1/28/200,  8:21:42 AM
We await durable goods orders for Dec at 8:30AM, est 2%, New home sales for Dec at 10AM, est 1.1M, and the FOMC announcement at 2:15.

  Linda Piazza   1/28/200,  7:15:28 AM
Good morning. Led lower by semiconductor-related stocks, the Nikkei gapped down more than 80 points at Wednesday's open. It traded in a near 100-point range through the day, closing in the middle of that range, down 75.56 points or 0.69%, at 10,852.47. Chip prices rose to their highest price since 12/09, according to one source, but market watchers expressed some concerns that the chip-related stocks were priced for perfection, and some were disappointed by chip-testing company Advantest's flat outlook. Sony was down ahead of its after-the-bell earnings, earnings that revealed a 26% decline in net profits for Q3. NTT DoCoMo declined when it made moves that suggested an interest in acquiring AT&T Wireless. Worries related to currency issues also impacted stocks related to exports. Automakers declined. December retail sales in Japan were unchanged from November's level, with that number proving better than the expected 1% fall, but were down 0.1% from the previous December's number. Retail sales for all of 2003 fell 1.8%. Sales at large retailers fell even more steeply, with the large retailers falling 2.8% over November's number and 3.9% from the year-ago period. Same-store sales showed declines for many retailers, too. In November, spending dropped 0.2% and unemployment remained at 5.2%. Yesterday, Cabinet ministers expressed concern about the lack of growth in consumer spending.

Other Asian bourses sank under worries about the impact of avian flu, with China now reporting its first case. Many regional airliners declined again. The Taiwan Weighted was flat, down 0.03%, but South Korea's Kospi declined 0.40%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 2.19% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.40%. China's Shanghai Composite remains closed, but will be open tomorrow.

European bourses turn in a mixed trading performance today, but most of the bourses we typically watch trade higher. One article termed the gains broad based, and the focus turned to story stocks and the conclusion of the FOMC meeting in the U.S. Aventis, the subject of a takeover bid by Sanofi Synthelabo, rose despite its confirmation of the deaths of five people taking its arthritis drug Arava. The takeover bid and its impact on jobs in Germany and France will reportedly be one topic discussed in talks between Germany's Chancellor Schroeder and France's President Chirac. German chipmaker Infineon Technologies announced its decision to buy Taiwan chip design firm ADMtek, with Infineon rising rather than declining, as is common with the acquiring company's stock. French building materials group Lafarge reported fourth quarter sales that rose 9.6% and a growth in volumes of cement sold in most of the countries in which it operates. Currency issues negatively impacted sales, but taking out that negative impact would have produced stable operating profit for the year. French industrial gas group Air Liquide reported sales that rose 6.2% over the full year, and mentioned noteworthy acceleration in Asia, a recovery in the Americas, and sound growth in Europe. Both Lafarge and Air Liquide traded higher in early trading.

Currently, the FTSE 100 trades higher by 14.70 points or 0.33%, at 4461.70. The CAC 40 trades higher by 14.35 points or 0.39%, at 3711.77. The DAX trades higher by 14.40 points or 0.35%, at 4148.82. Most of these bourses have traded in a fairly tight range over the last 5 days.

  Jeff Bailey   1/27/200,  9:04:03 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   1/27/200,  8:36:10 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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