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  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  6:42:56 PM
Now I am concerned Keene .... I'm about to turn 41. I did some research and brain deterioration from gas fumes has been found to show severe brain cell loss roughly 25-years after heavy exposure to fumes. This may explain my recent trouble figuring out the Q's.

To our friend in Germany. Enjoy your strong currency while you can, stockpile those Hershey (NYSE:HSY) $78.23 bars Link , maybe start looking at Huffy (NYSE:HUF) $4.50 Link . When, if, should the euro fall, you might think $5.07 per gallon is cheap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  6:33:02 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  5:55:17 PM
Hey guys, what you are talking about. You are still living in a wonderland with your prices on gallon.In Germany we are paying $ 5.07!!!!!! per gallon (unbelievable 80 % Tax!!!!! takes the government). So you are still lucky guys,aren't it?

Yes we are! I paid $1.59 last week and considered myself lucky!

 
 
  Keene Little   2/5/2004,  5:41:09 PM
Jeff, that explains some things--a little too many fumes? :-)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  5:36:05 PM
Hmmm.... when I was in high school, I got pretty good with a siphon hose and gas can. To this day I'm not sure if mom or dad knows why the gas mileage on the station wagon fluctuated so much.

19 cents a gallon? Those were Model-T days weren't they? (grin)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  5:32:16 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  5:12:18 PM
Jeff I am older than that. I can remember paying 19 cents. Five gallons for a $1 bill. We would sell coke bottles to get enough gas to go to school and back.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  4:29:34 PM
Agilent (A) $35.23 -0.19% ... on my list as a potential bullish candidate for tomorrow. After gapping higher on 01/27/04 from $34.00 to trade an opening high of $38.75, stock has been finding support at a prior high of $35.06. A good nonfarm number might find few offers. Link

Bulls do have to be careful that the recent gap wasn't an "exhaust gap" where to the far lower left corner of the chart, the gap from $22.50 might have been the breakaway gap, $27.50 running gap, and now the recent gap.

Stock has exceeded it PnF bullish vertical count of $32.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  4:22:33 PM
Earnings after the close:

BOBJ est +0.27, act = -0.12 diluted
APCC est +0.27, act = +0.28
CELL est +0.34, act = +0.33
CAMD est +0.09, act = +0.12
CSTR est +0.18, act = +0.21
CMRC est -0.16, act = -0.09
NSIT est +0.21, act = +0.25
EDS est +0.11, act +0.12
JHF est +0.78, act = +0.94
MXIM est +0.27, act = +0.28
MHK est +1.42, act = announced but can't find
MDCC est +0.19, act = +0.20 guiding lower
PCTI est -0.07, act = +0.39 (not clean)
PLMD est +0.48, act = +0.49
THQI est +0.78, act = +0.78
WPI est +0.48, act = +0.48
TQNT est -0.01, act = +0.06 diluted (no proforma)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  4:04:06 PM
BGO printing $3.21 in extended hours. I'm thinking a spec short trying to get closed out after late session move higher.

I consider my profiling of BGO (bullish/bearish) as rather speculative too. Especially for overnight holds. Stock can put a percentage hurt on shorter-term traders.

With dollar rebounding today, I think Newmont (NEM) $42.15 +1.46% a "safer" overnight hold into the nonfarm payroll data.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:59:04 PM
BGO $3.18 +4.26% ... those buggers ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  3:58:05 PM
So far, the SOX is not dropping below the right-shoulder level of its possible inverse H&S, but neither is it climbing past the neckline, other than a 15-minute candle shadow that pierced it. It's positioned to break above that neckline or break down below yesterday's low, too, tomorrow morning. Right now, though, we have to consider that it's a short-term bullish thing to see such a formation building, especially when we could have expected a bounce up to resistance.

Similar statements could be made about the OEX, although it was never as oversold as the SOX on a 60-minute basis, never falling to, much less below, the 60-minute envelope support as the SOX did. OEX daily oscillators still have plenty of room to fall (although RSI is trying to hook up again today), while the SOX daily oscillators will have to start trending in levels indicating oversold conditions if it falls any further. The SOX is at support from the ascending channel on its daily chart, but below the 50-dma. The OEX fell below the ascending trendline off the 1/13 low, but rose back to that trendline and clings to it as we near the close.

So, we don't really know anything more than we knew going into this today. The OEX still did not break out of that congestion zone from the last few days, although it sure looked as if it might. I'm thinking now, though, that unless those numbers are really bad tomorrow, there may be a relief bounce. That possibility is setting up on the short-term charts, anyway. Whether that relief bounce could take the OEX above the recent congestion zone or not, I'm not sure. We'd still have to wait and see.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:57:37 PM
Swing trade long alert ... Newmont Minining (NEM) $42.14 here, stop $41.70, target to be determined.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:56:14 PM
BGO ... $3.14 x $3.15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:55:45 PM
BGO $3.15 +3.27% ... market is taking offers

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:54:41 PM
BGO .... $3.15 offer... moving in with $3.14 offer to close out day trade. Time running out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:54:02 PM
BGO $3.13 x $3.14 .... may be trying to print a close of $3.15.

Might also be some speculators coming in late ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm data. If nonfarm weak, thinking might be dollar declines, gold bids.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:52:16 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.12 x $3.13 .... I think Bernanke's comments put a plug in my plan for BGO to trade $3.20 today.

Yesterday, just before the close, BGO fell to $3.05.

While I'd like to think we see a closing print back at today's high of $3.15, time is running out on this day trade.

If I see a $3.15 offer, I'd quickly move in under it at $3.14.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:47:07 PM
Question/observation .... Hi Jeff...

Lately I've noticed a conspicuous reduction in the number of buy/sell program alerts. What do you make of this?

best, Mark

I think this SPX 1,125 level is some type of "key" level, where I'll have to go back and check my notes, but was a level where we saw a great amount of SPX option activity at.

My best estimate is that institutions have things pretty well squared up, and tomorrow's nonfarm payroll data is going to be the swing for renewed buying, or another leg of selling. This might be an explanation as to why the buy/sell programs have been less active of late.

I also think this as the e-mini S&P futures (es04u) 1,127.75 (10-minute delayed) is right back at that "zone" of 1,129.50-1,131.25.

Right now, this futures trade gives me a more bearish bias.

I think the nonfarm payroll data has to come in at 200K or more to really get a bullish response.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  3:41:31 PM
AutoZone (AZO) is breaking out over both its 200-dma and its 50-dma. The stock is also breaking out of its recent consolidation and trying to break into the gap from December. This looks like a bullish candidate.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  3:37:39 PM
Keep an eye on ETN. The stock is bouncing from its rising technical support. Shares could see a pre-split ramp up due to its 2:1 split on Feb. 24th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  3:36:20 PM
Although the neckline of the inverse H&S on the OEX is at 560.80, the OEX faces massive resistance just above that level. Resistance comes in at 561.25, from the descending trendline off the 1/27 high, at the 561.23 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline; and at 561.63, the 60-minute 100-pma.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  3:26:49 PM
Golden West Financial (GDW), after three months of consolidation, has finally broken out above the $104 level and is approaching its highs at $105. A trigger above $105.00 might be a good bullish entry point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  3:23:00 PM
For reference, that OEX inverse H&S I depicted in my 15:15 post has a neckline at about 560.80.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  3:17:43 PM
Defense contractor GD is breaking out over resistance at $95.00. This could be a trigger for a quick run to the $100 mark. The rally today also forms a fresh triple-top buy signal on its P&F chart, which points to a $125 price objective.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  3:15:39 PM
I've typed "H&S" so many times today that I'm going to lose all credibility, but since some of these have proved predictive of action, I'll go on mentioning what I'm seeing. Here's something to watch, as seen on the OEX ten-minute chart: Link Note: Today, the bearish H&S's have been confirming more readily than the bullish ones on many short-term charts, but that may change if both the SOX and the OEX approach their inverse H&S's necklines at the same time. Bears want to see the right shoulder level violated and bulls want to see the neckline violated on the OEX version.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  3:12:45 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  3:03:19 PM
The SOX rejected the neckline of the inverse H&S that had been forming on its intraday charts (most visible on the 15-minute), but it may just be heading down to form a second right shoulder. If so, it should round up before retracing lower than 495, although I'd certainly give it a few cents leeway since that neckline is a descending one. Currently, the SOX measures 497.10.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  3:03:17 PM
If you're a P&F chart fan then KO's p&f chart looks pretty bullish (pointing to a $67.00 price target). However its daily chart is much more mundane currently stuck in a six-week consolidation. Bullish traders might want to watch it for a move over $51.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:59:23 PM
Wow. That didn't take long. The downside target of the five-minute OEX H&S has been met. Rather quickly.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  2:58:09 PM
TWX is bouncing from support (previous resistance) at $17.00. Technicals are starting to look bullish again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:56:53 PM
The OEX just broke through the neckline of that possible H&S (five-minute chart) that I was watching form at the top of the Bernanke-inspired surge earlier today. Only a single five-minute candle shadow pushed above the right-shoulder level, with all other candles forming under that shoulder level, so I guess I'll consider it a real H&S. The downside target is about 558.50, so we should watch now to see if that downside target is met or exceeded, or whether the OEX instead turns right around and climbs again.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  2:56:37 PM
The insurance sector has been strong and one of the biggest players in the group AIG is bouncing from the $70.00 level to hit new highs. Look for AIG to announce earnings on Feb. 11th. Nimble traders may be able to play it ahead of its earnings report.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  2:55:07 PM
Winn Dixie (WIN) $6.40 +4.57% Link ... stock bids after SEC filing disclosed that its Director John Dasburg purchased 100,000 shares of WIN yesterday from $5.75-$5.90. Mr. Dasburg was recently the CEO of Burger King.

Will note WIN's PnF chart has been bearish, but did achieve its bearish vertical count of $6.00.

January 05 $7.50 calls (ZGHAU) $1.30 x $1.35

January 06 $7.50 calls (YHHAU) $1.60 x $1.85

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:53:31 PM
Wednesday evening when substituting for Jim, I suggested that some effort might be made to hold the markets steady into Friday's economic releases. So why am I in a directional play? Beats me. I always have better ideas when I'm thinking outside market hours.

Seriously, though, I entered my current position as a lottery type play when the OEX had fallen through its 60-minute 100-pma and had risen again to retest it from the underside. I figured that I would have an easy stop just over that moving average. I still have that easy stop and now it's backed up by a descending trendline off the 1/27 and 2/02 highs. Yet I had a small position in case the OEX did just plummet, the way that the TRAN did. I'm afraid now that there could be last-minute short-covering ahead of the close, so I'll have to decide whether I want to continue to gamble and widen my stop a bit or keep it where it is.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  2:53:04 PM
Just read an interesting Reuters article on Corning Inc. (GLW). Apparently GLW is investing another $600 million into its liquid crystal display (LCD) glass business. GLW already expects to sell out of its current LCD inventory in the first quarter. Currently LCD TV sales have only reached 3 percent of the global market and are expected to hit 16 percent "as early as 2006".

Shares of GLW are off their January (two-year) highs near $14.00 and have pulled back to support near $12.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  2:50:32 PM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) 24.75 +5.3% ... stock jumped notably from the 02:10 PM EST level of $23.52. Not sure if this was on Bernanke's comments or not.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:30:48 PM
There was no rollover into a right shoulder below 560.50 on the OEX five-minute chart. Instead, the OEX jumped above the right-shoulder level, although it's retreating now and has left only a five-minute candle shadow above the right-shoulder level. Since the neckline is also slightly ascending, that leaves us in doubt as to whether the pattern is defunct or not.

Meanwhile, the SOX jumped above the neckline of its possible inverse H&S, but then turned right back around again and fell below it. That breakout is in question, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  2:14:21 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.71 -0.14% .... (30-minute delayed) ... here's a link to live currency quotes, but I have never been able to find live Dollar Index (dx00y) quotes. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:12:20 PM
So far, the OEX is holding above the 559.50-559.90 zone from which I thought we'd see the first bounce attempt. If we do see that bounce, bears should hope for a downturn from below 560.50, the first sign of a right shoulder being formed to go with a possible left shoulder and head at the top of the Bernanke-induced climb.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  2:06:10 PM
Per Jonathan's 13:27:44 My interpretation would be that the Fed isn't ignoring the potential for inflation, when the Fed has its fed funds rate of 1% at 45-year lows. It's on the lookout for signs of inflation, but not seeing it.

Spot Gold ... $398.00, still below the $400.00 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  2:01:27 PM
Careful, tech bears. The SOX intraday chart shows a possible inverse H&S, complete with price/MACD bullish divergence, although I'm not certain if the neckline would be a descending one, as drawn on this chart, or one that's horizontal: Link Remember, though, that if a formation is rejected, the move the opposite direction can be explosive, so there's some danger to tech bulls, too. I'm not making assumptions yet, but am watching this potentially short-term bullish formation to see first if it's confirmed and then if the upside potential is met.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:48:12 PM
Short-term, you might watch for an OEX bounce from 559.50-559.90 if the OEX should continue to fall.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:45:52 PM
As we move into the middle of the usual :35-1:55 stop-running time of day, the OEX is hitting the top of the descending regression channel that's been present on its five-minute chart since Tuesday, at least the way that Q-charts draws the regression channel. Have we already had that push, a little early, and will it hold or fail to hold? That's the question we all want answered.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:42:58 PM
No surprise here... Borg Warner (BWA) beat estimates by 6 cents and announced a 2-for-1 split. Shares are up 1.9% to $93.14.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:40:12 PM
One note on my 13:36 post about upper OEX resistance on the Keltner channels. The 563.50-563.70 level marks resistance since the end of January, with the exception of the 2/2 spike above that resistance, so there's reasonable correspondence between historical resistance and the upper Keltner channel resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:36:34 PM
The OEX is maintaining a position above the midpoint of its nested Keltner channels. If it continues to do so, the Keltner channels predict no real resistance until 563.16. The 60-minute 100/130-pma's lie between the current OEX level and that upper Keltner channel, but we've seen other times when the Keltner channels correctly predict where resistance really lies, despite other levels that seem to lie between the OEX and that upper boundary.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:35:42 PM
For a quick list of same-store sales data...

January Same-Store Sales:
_________________________


LTD: +23.0%
CHS: +19.5%
NMG.A +15.2%
PSUN +12.4%
JAS: +10.3%
CLE: +10.0%
CACH +10.0%
GES: + 9.5%
BJ: + 8.8%
JCP: + 6.4%
JWL: + 6.0%
MIK: + 6.0%
WMT: + 5.7%
SMRT + 5.7%
TGT: + 5.1%
BKE: + 5.1%
DEBS + 5.0%
BEBE + 4.8%
MAY: + 4.6%
S: + 4.6%
FRED + 4.1%
FL: + 3.9%
ANN: + 3.7%
GYMB + 3.0%
FDO: + 3.0%
GPS: + 3.0%
TJX: + 2.0%
DDS: + 2.0%
ANF: + 2.0%
KSS: + 0.3%
-----------
PSS: - 0.3%
WLSN: -0.8%
SKFB - 1.9%
CHRS - 3.0%
BONT - 5.0%
HKF: - 6.4%
CTR: - 8.0%
CBK: -15.0%
GADZQ -19.2%
WTSLA -21.4%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  1:25:33 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.61 -0.27% back at the monthly pivot here. (30-minute delayed).

Bema Gold (BGO) $3.11 x $3.12

$HUI.X 215.16 +1.13% ... session high has been 217.42

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:23:18 PM
Allied Domecq (AED), an international distiller of whiskey and wine is probably better known for its retail food chain of Dunkin' Donuts. They plan to take on Starbucks for the premium coffee market. Evidently Dunkin' Donuts is already one of the largest sellers of coffee in the U.S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  1:15:57 PM
Al Green contemplates his role in a post-deflationary economy... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  1:14:20 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:13:51 PM
I was right to worry about a bounce. I didn't know about the Bernanke's statement or Bush's plans, of course, but the charts were showing the danger. The OEX confirmed that double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart, and has charged up toward the 560 upside target. Let's see what happens here, and then at 560.49-561.72, when it approaches the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but the failure to move the OEX below that 557.36 level begins to worry me.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:13:38 PM
Hmmm... keep an eye on Adolph Coors Co (RKY). The company just announced earnings and net profits soared 78% to 98 cents a share. This beat the street by 31 cents. The stock gapped higher to $59.80, quickly fell back to test the $57.00 level as support and bounced again. Shares are up 5.3%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  1:11:58 PM
Don't mess with Texas, James :-o

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  1:11:03 PM
The spike is really on the news that Bush is holding mid-east peac talks Texas style. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  1:10:39 PM
Treasuries have found some notable intra-day selling in last 20-minutes with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now higher by 1.2 bp at 4.136%. Was trading 4.110% minutes ago.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:07:49 PM
you may be on the right track! *grin*

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  1:07:03 PM
James, perhaps they'll offer a Dunkin Donuts credit card, the portfolio behind which could be monetized and shopped... "Frosted Jelly Filled Unsecured Trust Series IA", perhaps.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:05:11 PM
I'm not sure what CNBC is going to highlight but DunkinDonuts did recently introduce a "Dunkin' Donuts Card". This is a rechargeable debit card to make your purchases at Dunkin' Donuts quicker and easier.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:02:02 PM
Oh.. my bad.. they already sell DunkinDonuts clothing... (and their own brand of coffee)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  1:01:56 PM
And there comes the bounce. Remember that a move above 558.75 confirms a double-bottom formation on the five-minute OEX chart, predicting an upside target near 560. Central Keltner resistance lies at 559.76. That's the level we'll want to watch next.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  1:01:01 PM
if you're listening to CNBC they just mentioned a new product line from Dunkin Donuts. More food? Or a line of clothing for the rebels not following the low-carb food craze?

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:58:39 PM
Harrah's Entertainment (HET) is getting a nice bounce today (+2.5%) after yesterday's sell the news reaction to its earnings report. The stock had dropped precipitously to support at its 50-dma and the $50.00 mark yesterday but an upgrade to a "buy" from Merrill Lynch is giving it a boost today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  12:58:32 PM
The OEX 30- and 60-minute oscillators are trying to turn up. If we've learned anything over the last few months, we've learned that we can't put much faith in oscillator movement, but this is nevertheless a warning to bears, especially as the candles have grown smaller on those time frames, forming doji and other candles that can serve as reversal signals. I haven't been particularly worried about the upside until now, expecting the OEX to zig and zag its way down, expecting some upside tests to occur, and patiently waiting for the OEX to work its way down so we could see how the real test progressed. I'm growing worried now that we're having the real test today and the OEX is going nowhere. On the five-minute chart, the shape is beginning to look distinctly descending bull wedge-ish, too. If this doesn't tank soon, there could be a bounce and perhaps a more sizeable one than I'd originally anticipated. It's like pushing a balloon below the surface of the water. The further you push it, the higher it might bounce when it breaks back above the surface.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:52:39 PM
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) reported earnings that only met expectations yesterday at 30 cents a share. Revenues jumped 23% to $214.5 million, just edging past estimates. The earnings news has prompted one analyst to reiterate their "buy" and another to upgrade CAKE to a "buy". Shares are up 3.16% to a new all-time high above the $45.00 level, although the stock is down from its best levels of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:50:13 PM
Intra-day chart of DX))Y at this Link

Chances are you can see a direct inverse relationship with gold stocks you like to trade and the dollar.

I didn't place the DAILY pivot levels on the above chart, but that morning rally reached 86.54. Pretty close to its DAILY S2 of 86.51.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:47:27 PM
Sprint PCS (PCS) is getting a lot of attention after its recent earnings report. Shares are up 5.7% to $9.04 after receiving two upgrades to a "buy" and a one upgrade to an "out perform" this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  12:45:10 PM
The advdec line has been generally declining since shortly after the open, although it may be trying to steady now. Is that just the effect of the lunchtime lull? It's still positive, but by only 197 issues. Sometimes the trajectory of this line can tell us something about likely direction, but if it's predicting more downside, the TRIN isn't following through with an upside trajectory of its own. The reason I usually prefer to look at a adv/dec ratio rather than a line derived from the subtraction method is that the ratios aren't as affected by things such as the lunchtime lull. However, the source I use to calculate ratios is delayed, while the advdec line I watch is not, so there's a tradeoff.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:39:26 PM
Starwood Hotels (HOT) is up 6.4% after announcing Q4 earnings that were above estimates, despite a decrease in revenues. Wall Street estimates were for net income of 32 cents a share. HOT reported EPS of 42 cents. In stead of same-store sales, hotels use revenue per available room, which rose 6.6% on a global basis and up 4.7% in N. America.

HOT's CEO said it was "remarkable" that their global sales were up given the extended Iraq conflict and the impact of SARS. Management was encouraged by an increase in corporate travel spending.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:34:34 PM
James beat me to the punch ... interesting news and trade action in STJ when considering trader e-mail a couple of days ago. (see 01/30/04 MM at 4:21:10) Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:32:26 PM
Ouch! Medtronic Inc (MDT) is down over 9% after its revenue warning last night after the close. Guidance had been for $2.15-2.23 billion in revenue for the quarter but MDT pre-warned that revenues would only hit $2.195 billion. Estimates had been at the high end of the range. The drop today has broken support at 47.50-48.00 and its 200-dma. MDT is expected to announce earnings on Feb. 11th.

Rival Guidant (GDT) is down 2.18% toward the $60.00 level of support but up off its lows of the session.

Rival St. Jude Medical (STJ) is down 1.27%, also up off its lows of the session.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:27:53 PM
Claire's Stores (CLE) is trading strongly higher (+8.87%) and breaking resistance at $20.00 and its 50-dma after reporting January same-store sales that rose 10%. Total sales for January rose 17%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  12:26:40 PM
An OEX move above 558.75 would now confirm a double-bottom on the five-minute chart with an upside target near 560. This isn't an exact double bottom, but it's close enough that we can watch first to see if it's confirmed--a first sign of short-term strength--and then if the upside target is met. I'm growing concern about the bears' inability to drive the OEX below that 557.36 low from 1/29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:25:56 PM
Table of NH/NL Breadth for NYSE and NASDAQ at this Link

Column AA and AE are the 5-day averages for NYSE and NASDAQ, where green represents 5-day above 10-day (bullish near-term leadership), blue is even, while red would represent 5-day falling below 10-day (lacking near-term leadership)

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:22:56 PM
Shares of Cerner Corp (CERN) are up 17% to $45.00 after announcing earnings last night that beat by a penny. Gross margins soared 4.6% to 79.1% and the company guided slightly higher for 2004. Analyst reaction was positive with two brokers upping their rating to a "buy" and one to a "strong buy".

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:17:13 PM
P.F.Chang's China Bistro (PFCB) is up strongly (+6.14%) on an "out perform" upgrade from Bear Stearns. The rally today is breaking through resistance at its 50-dma and the $50.00 level. Earnings are expected on Feb. 11th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:16:24 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:13:17 PM
Wal-Mart (WMT) is being upgraded to a "buy" by Lazard Freres after WMT announced same-store sales that were up 5.7% (above its guidance of 3-5%). Total sales for January were up 14.3% to $18.4 billion. The Dow component gapped up this morning above resistance at its 200-dma and is currently trying to breakout above the bottom of its November gap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  12:10:28 PM
I'm watching the OEX today according to Jeff's 5MRT system, as well as by some of the other methods I use. The last bounce at 11:15 occurred just as the OEX hit the bearish #2 on that system. So far, believe it or not, we're seeing yet another day when the OEX spends most of the morning within the neutral zone predicted by Jeff's system. The bearish #2 at 557.43 is close to the 1/29 low of 557.36, verifying that level's importance. It's always nice to have two corroborating sources saying a level is important.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:08:00 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.14 +2.95% ... bid 3.14 offer 3.15, where offer has been firm all session. Most likely need further weakness in dollar to have buyer getting more aggressive.

Thinking is stock will pop to about $3.22, where the $3.15 level, if broken to upside, becomes a near-term support level, where if dollar index remains below MONTHLY Pivot, might provide another bullish entry point in BGO, then with an upside target to $3.30.

 
 
  James Brown   2/5/2004,  12:05:55 PM
DHR, a current OI call, is bouncing from the $90.00 level as expected. This looks like an entry point but cautious traders may want to wait for shares to break their short-term trend of lower highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  12:01:14 PM
I think the OEX is now hanging by about two fingernails to that cliff, but it's sure not giving up and dropping. The risk remains the same as that I mentioned earlier: that if it doesn't drop soon, bulls will take a breath, hoist the OEX back over that cliff, send this thing higher. When bearish patterns fail to confirm, there can be an explosive climb, as we all well know by this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  12:01:12 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 216.97 +1.98% ... here updated bar chart with our fitted retracement brackets we've had in place since November. 220 is near-term resistance, where more formidable resistance is between 226-230. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  11:52:26 AM
Reader Question: Sorry to distract you from the OEX, but I was wondering if this might be a good entry point for the UNA play? It did dip to 19.50 earlier today, but I missed it.

Response: I'm not on the pick team for the play that was suggested, so I'm not sure about the play, entries, or how long the play was to endure, all factors that impact the decision. SEC rules do not allow us to give individual advice as to entries and exits. In this case, my lack of knowledge of the play perhaps works to the advantage of the reader and following those SEC rules, because I'll limit my comments to an objective view of what I see happening on the UNA chart. Be aware that I don't know about fundamental information that might be affecting UNA. I did check the earnings date, and that date is February 12, after the bell. Other than the occasional daytrade, I usually avoid entries in stocks within two weeks of their reporting date.

I always begin with a P&F chart, and UNA's P&F chart shows a bullish signal reversed yesterday, with a current downside target of $12.00. While stocks sometimes do rise after producing sell signals, that warns the reader that a bullish play might have aspects that make it a countertrend play. UNA would have to print $27.00 before creating a new buy signal.

What about the bar chart? The bar chart shows some of the same weakness depicted by the P&F chart. Through October, November, and early January, UNA was printing a series of higher highs while oscillators were printing either equal or lower highs. That's bearish divergence. Although we've seen lots of bearish divergences lately that meant absolutely nothing as stocks continued to climb, the weakness that was being depicted came to pass in this case, with UNA falling below the ascending trendline established through that period. The weekly chart is particularly disturbing, showing a possible H&S formation that aborted early, dumping prices lower before even forming a right shoulder. It had reached a new high before beginning the drop, and the drop has carried it back below the previous high near $24.00. The monthly chart shows a steep climb all through 2003 without much of a pause to consolidate those gains, so it's not surprising to see a steep drop when one begins. The current drop has already retraced more than 20% of the climb off 2001 lows, with a 38.2% retracement of that entire move at $17.27, just below the 200-dma. If that weekly formation had been a fully formed H&S, it would have had a downside target somewhere near that level, too. I think anyone investing long-term in UNA would then have to assess a willingness to risk a fall toward $17.25-17.50.

However, with that said, I've found $20.00 to be a powerful number, and UNA's slide has already been steep. Some daily oscillators are showing a tendency to hook up, and some 60-minute oscillators show that same tendency. Despite the power of $20.00, I do note that UNA has not yet been able to maintain levels above this morning's gap, a sign that bullish fervor hasn't been consistent this morning, at least.

So a lot depends on what type of play you're considering, whether it's a long-term play to be held for many months, in which case some traders would be willing to accept that risk down to $17.25 (although not to the P&F $12.00 target) as a tradeoff for the possibility that it will find support at $20.00 and never look back again, depending on the trader's outlook on the stock and its sector and this person's comfort level in trading against that P&F signal. I usually avoid trying to pick a bottom and instead wait for a steadying before I jump in, but I've been known to miss some fantastic plays that way. If it's a shorter-term play that's planned, that again depends on the trader's willingness to jump in and choose what might (emphasis on "might") be a short-term bottom, knowing that most stocks find resistance when they're retraced 50% of such a flagpole drop, and setting an appropriate profit goal, getting out ahead of next week's earnings announcement. If it's a daytrade, completely different views gain importance, but I'd certainly at least want to see it above that gap and the last five-minute high before I felt too much comfort with such a bullish and perhaps countertrend play. I don't do much daytrading these days, so I'm not the best person to ask about that possibility, if that was planned. Perhaps someone else has other ideas about UNA. I know that I'm more cautious than some and I haven't watched this stock, so don't know how it tends to react.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  11:49:18 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) $86.50 -0.39% (30-min delay) ... here's a DX00Y chart with current WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  11:41:45 AM
HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $-0.15 and set for program selling at $-2.05.

QCharts symbol for premium alert is $PREM.X

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  11:29:17 AM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $69.25 -1.6% ... swing trade stop alert

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  11:16:57 AM
If the OEX drops quickly through 557.36, then we might see the downside finally underway. If the OEX does now bounce, and it seems that we ought to expect at least a reflexive bounce, bulls will now want to see a climb above the 2/2 high of 566.42 as a confirmation of a double-bottom formation. If that confirmation occurs, the upside predicted would be above 575. Intervening between that level, however, is the confluence of the apex of the triangle the OEX broke below on the 60-minute chart and the 60-minute 21- and 100-pma's, all near 561.82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  11:10:51 AM
Last week's OEX low was 557.36, so we should be cognizant of that as a possible bounce point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  11:02:01 AM
The BIX has tentatively reached a lower five-minute low, to be confirmed with a fall to a new five-minute low. There was no bearish divergence on the five-minute oscillators. Both price and oscillators made lower lows. The BIX is perching just above that trendline I've been watching, with that trendline this morning coinciding with the 60-minute 100-pma at 347.99. With the BIX, the 30-minute version is usually more important to watch, but last week's low was reached as the BIX tested and then bounced from the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, so we shouldn't ignore the 60-minute version, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:48:01 AM
Until last week, the OEX hadn't traded more than a point or two below its 60-minute 100-pma since November. In November, it traded between 6-8 points below that moving average, a rather typical amount, for a little over a week before moving up and starting December's climb. Last week and this week, the OEX has ranged a maximum of almost 5 points off that moving average on 1/29, but most of the time, it's stayed within 2-3 points of that average, currently at 561.84. Is that enough to balance those wild swings above the 100-pma, way out of proportion to usual moves away from that moving average, that we've been seeing? Usually when the pendulum swings too far one direction, it swings too far the other direction, too, until the energy is tamped down. The OEX isn't showing much willingness to fall further yet, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:38:14 AM
QQQ $36.55 +0.6% ... either side of DAILY pivot with session low/high $36.46-$36.64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:37:18 AM
One factor helping the OEX cling to that cliff is the 30-dma, currently at 558.42 and just below the current OEX position.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:35:42 AM
The OEX is certainly clinging to a cliff here on the daily chart. It's edging below the ascending trendline from the 1/13 low, but hanging just above the 1/29 low of 557.36. It's barely hanging inside the congestion zone that forms the bulb of that possible "b" distribution form. The danger here, as always, though, is that if it manages to hang on and hang on, bulls will eventually gain confidence, stop holding their breath, and send it higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:35:13 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.38 -0.52% ... printing session low here (30-min delayed). WEEKLY S1 just below at 86.26.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 216.39 +1.71% .. just off session high of 216.71.

Spot Gold $399.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:17:13 AM
Day trade long alert .... Bema Gold (BGO) $3.12 +2.29% here, stop $3.07, target $3.20

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  10:14:30 AM
The Fed has added 8.75B in overnight repos, for a net drain of 1.5B today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:14:17 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.45 -0.44% (30-min. delayed), and under its MONTHLY Pivot of $86.61.

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 216.37 +1.7% ...

Spot Gold $399.80

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:13:43 AM
Here's what I'm noting on an OEX five-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:10:27 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:05:08 AM
Maybe that BIX H&S formation has some validity after all, despite the extension of the right-shoulders far out of proportion to the left shoulder. The last BIX 30-minute candle pierced the neckline level, with the shadow extending below it and the candle body mostly above it, and the current 30-minute candle is trying to find support at the neckline and scramble back to the 100/130-pma's. Whether it's valid or not, a bounce back above those averages and the 350.76 shoulder level might see a strong sprint up in this index as bearish hopes are dashed. Right now, though, we're just seeing a settling-out in a lot of the indices as bears and bulls figure out who has the upper hand. Don't invest too much into any one conclusion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:02:31 AM
Dillard's (DDS) $17.03 +2.77% Link ... January same store sales increased 2%, well above consensus that called for a 3.9% decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  10:00:47 AM
The SOX is facing central Keltner channel resistance now, with that resistance at 500.56, just below the 30-minute 21-pma at 501.01. It's turned down from its first test of that resistance, but it may not be through. The SOX has dropped far below its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, currently at 513.4 and 516.34, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a rise up toward those averages again, but in addition to that resistance, it's also going to face gap resistance from yesterday's gap-down open. That gap spans from 503.41 to 508.24.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  10:00:28 AM
Target (TGT) $39.64 +1.66% Link ... January same store sales jumped 5.1% versus consensus of 4.9%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  9:59:32 AM
Still no word from the Fed regarding the remaining 10.25B in expiring interventions today. The announcement is due any minute.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:58:41 AM
Children's Place (PLCE) $28.15 +3.49% Link ... said January same store sales rose 6.0%, which was slightly below consensus for a 6.1% gain. Company gave Q4 EPS guidance of $0.52, which was above consensus of $0.50, saying improved gross margins and January sales will boost results.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:55:22 AM
The TRAN is trying to make it back above that 2844 level this morning, having reached a high or 2843.24. Central Keltner resistance lies at 2844.57, emphasizing the importance of this historical S/R level. The TRAN has fallen so far, so fast, though, that I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce of some height, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:54:40 AM
Foot Locker (FL) $24.36 -0.97% Link ... preannounce Q4 revenues to be $1.33 billion, which is above consensus of $1.31 billion and guided Q4 EPS to the high end of FL's prior guidance of $0.41-$0.45 versus consensus of $0.45. FL said same store sales for Q4 increased 3.9%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:50:47 AM
Sector action broadly higher with Airline ($XAL.X) 59.38 +1.9%, Retail (RLX.X) 381.88 +1.46%, Networking (NWX.X) 292.22 +1.72% and Semiconductor (SOX.X) 500.07 +1.36% leading gainers.

Weakness has Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 551.44 -3.8%, Health Providers (RXH.X) 375.85 -0.73%, KBW Banks (BKX.X) 980.22 -0.6%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:50:26 AM
The BIX is now violating that H&S neckline, but the violation is minor as yet and I'm not sure how much validity the formation has. Still, this is not good news for OEX bulls unless the BIX gathers itself up and bounces back above that neckline soon. It's not good news for OEX bears if that's what the BIX does in fact do. I have the neckline crossing at about 348, with the BIX now at 347.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:48:19 AM
The BIX drops this morning, having dropped below yesterday's low. It's dropping down to the extended neckline of the H&S I had been watching lately, although it's uncertain whether that formation retains any validity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:46:54 AM
Dollar General (DG) $22.75 +0.97% Link ... reported a 3.1% rise in January same store sales, which was below consensus of 3.3%. Company preannounces total retail sales for its fiscal Q4 (January) was $2 billion, which compares to the $1.97 billion consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:43:19 AM
Gap Inc. (GPS) $20.36 +7.72% Link ... gives Q4 EPS guidance of $0.37-$0.39, excluding a $0.02 per share charge, which is above consensus of Q4 EPS of $0.34. Gap Inc. said same store sales rose 3% in January, well above consensus looking for a 3% decline in same store sales.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:41:28 AM
Although the OEX is zig-zagging up off yesterday's low, and although it reached a new five-minute high and also climbed temporarily above the midpoint of yesterday's flagpole drop, the climb still takes the general shape of a bear-flag climb into resistance. Mixed messages here. Disclaimer: I trade OEX options, and currently have a bearish position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/5/2004,  9:39:45 AM
Family Dollar Stores (FDO) $35.99 +3.3% Link ... reported a 3% increase in same store sales for January, which was in line with consensus.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:38:05 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from to 559.57 to 560.52, with a midpoint at 560.05. The OEX is above another midpoint--the midpoint of yesterday afternoon's flagpole drop, a first bullish sign, and it's also reached a new five-minute high above the late climb off that flagpole drop yesterday, another bullish sign. This move brings it up to test those eternally tested 60-minute 100/130-pma's again, currently at 561.96 and 560.64, respectively. Let's watch what happens during the first retracement, typically beginning in a few minutes.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  9:33:30 AM
LVLT - got whacked at the open down -15% to $4.73

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  9:32:29 AM
16.25B in various repos expire today. The Fed has just announced a 14-day 6B repo. We await the 10AM announcement regarding the shorter term adds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:31:47 AM
The OEX opens beneath the 50% retracement of yesterday's flagpole drop, with that midpoint at about 560.10.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/5/2004,  9:22:49 AM
Five IPOs today. Shades of 1999!
Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC-Nasdaq) 7mm at $15
Assurant (AIZ-NYSE) 80mm at $22.00
Bakers Footwear Group (BKRS-Nasdaq) 2.16mm at $7.75
Renovis (RNVS-Nasdaq) 5.5mm at $12.00
TODCO (THE-NYSE) 12mm at $12.00 (spin-off from RIG)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:22:10 AM
At the end of the day yesterday, I said that it looked likely that the OEX would end the day still within the consolidation zone in which it's traded over the last few sessions, but that even if it did violate that zone at the end of the day, I wouldn't trust any last-minute violation and would then expect the OEX to move back up into the zone and try again. Although the OEX did not drop below last week's 557.36 low by the end of the day, it did drop back to the ascending trendline off that 1/29 low, ending the day on that trendline and below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. The OEX's position within a likely "b" distribution pattern on the daily chart, the descending daily oscillators, and its position below those 60-minute averages paint a bearish picture, but until the OEX breaks out of that likely "b" distribution pattern, it remains "likely" and not confirmed. The possibility remains that we could see an upside break out of this likely bearish pattern, just as we've seen repeated upside breaks out of likely bearish patterns over the last 10 months. Even if that is a bearish "b" distribution pattern, and even if it is eventually confirmed, that doesn't mean we can't have some up days. That's almost guaranteed as the bulb portion of the "b" is formed. Wednesday, I tried to imagine what might happen headed into tomorrow's economic releases, and I thought there might be some effort to hold the indices steady into those numbers. By then, that "b" will be getting a bit extended, and it will certainly be time for an upside breakout or a downside breakdown. For today, then, I'm still watching that 557 level for a downside break, confirmed by bearish volume patterns. I'm watching 563.50-564 for a first sign of an upside breakout, with a move above the 2/02 high of 566.42 to confirm that upside move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  9:10:12 AM
The ECB left rates unchanged at 2%. Although there had been some speculation that the ECB might even ease rates, most believed that speculation unfounded, and the majority were proved right.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  8:32:07 AM
Q4 productivity +2.7%.

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL AT 3-YEAR LOW

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  8:30:39 AM
Initial claims 356K, continuing claims 312M.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/5/2004,  7:58:27 AM
We await preliminary productivity for Q4, est. 3% and initial claims, est. 340K at 8:30AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  7:07:49 AM
As was widely expected, the Bank of England has raised rates a quarter point. Here's a link to the statement: Link Click on the 05.02.04 entry under "What's New," on the right-hand side of the page.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/5/2004,  6:52:50 AM
Good morning. When the Nikkei opened Thursday's trading below 10,400, it had dropped almost 500 points in less than a week's time. Climbing to its high of the day by midmorning, the Nikkei dipped once more below 10,400 before climbing into the close. It closed up 17.35 points or 0.17%, at 10,464.60. Today the government released December's Leading Indicators number, showing a rise to 66.7 from November's 50, but coming in slightly lower than the forecast 70. The Bank of Japan also concluded its meeting this week without changing its monetary policy. The statement released said that economic optimism prevailed over the deleterious effects of the strong yen, according to one report.

The rebounding banks steadied the Nikkei at midmorning, when some tech stocks also began rebounding. Sony and rival Matsushita were early gainers ahead of Matsushita's earnings report due tomorrow, and both closed higher. Other techs were mixed. Toyota was also an early gainer ahead of earnings due after the market close on Thursday. When those earnings came, the company reported a 59.7% increase in net income and an 11.2% increase in operating profits from the same quarter a year ago, with those results being slightly higher than expected. The company also raised expectations for earnings and sales in the current quarter.

Other Asian bourses turned in a mixed performance. Even amid a report that the deaths due to avian flu now number 17, some Asian airliners rebounded from recent losses. Those airliners had been hit by fears that avian flu would curtail travel plans. Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines both gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.43% and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.65%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.33% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.43%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.49%. China Life continued to drop after the recent announcement of possible accounting problems.

Ahead of Bank of England and ECB decisions due today, European bourses trade cautiously higher or cautiously lower. Although some speculation had arisen that the ECB could cut rates, that speculation appears not to have been widely believed, and most now say that that the ECB will leave rates alone, while the Bank of England may raise rates. Today, January's German jobless rate was released, with that number being 11%. Many tech stocks rebounded from recent losses.

Several stocks grabbed headlines. Chief among them was Deutsche Bank, reporting net income for the year that was more than triple the previous year's. Revenues were lower, but if currency issues and the impact from disposals were removed, revenues would have risen 9%, the company reported. Deutsche Bank was climbing in early trading. Some reported that the company had talked to Citigroup about merging, although the early-stage talks apparently ended in January. Other headline stocks included Belgian-Dutch bank and insurer Fortis, flat after announcing that it had priced its U.S. IPO Assurant at the top end of the initial price range; Alcatel, up after reporting Q4 earnings that showed sales up 29.4% and a narrower loss, with the company also saying that Q1's carrier market might be difficult to predict; and Schering, trading lower after giving an outlook characterized as flat. Goldman Sachs sparked gains in Royal Philips Electronics when the firm said that the recent decline was a buying opportunity. The company reports on Friday. Today has been a busy day for earnings releases in Europe.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades lower by 6.70 points or 0.15%, to 4391.80. The CAC 40 trades higher by 12.36 points or 0.34%, to 3619.93. The DAX trades higher by 0.51 points or 0.01%, to 4028.88.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/4/2004,  12:19:53 AM
Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 10,418.06 -0.28% Link ... session low/high so far has been 10,374.90-10,478.41 ... off earlier lows with Toyota rebounding from broker comments that the stock's recent decline was too far, too fast.

Another important test of trend awaits the $NIKK at the 10,300, which is also the Nikkei's bearish vertical count. A rather massive looking reverse/head shoulder pattern may be forming in the $NIKK, where right shoulder may be developing at 10,150, with neckline back higher at formidable-looking 11,200.

Still, from the recent high of 11,150 and 45-degree trend from those highs certainly looks as if market particpants have been selling into rallies.

Here's Hong Kong's Hang Seng ($HSI.X) Link

Here's the Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,470.74 -0.32% PnF chart Link.

Here's a look at Germany's DAX Link

Here's the U.K's FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link

and France's CAC 40 ($CAC) Link

This concludes this evening's world tour. Good night!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/4/2004,  12:03:54 AM
Back to school? ... two stocks in the education field recently giving buy signals on their point and figure charts.

Apollo Group (APOL) $76.44 +2.02% Link

Career Education (CECO) $52.00 +7.01% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/4/2004,  9:20:12 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/4/2004,  8:49:15 PM
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