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  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  7:07:40 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  6:53:01 PM
NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X0 1,500 looks to be the intra-day level today where the buy/sell program premium levels were generated.

This 1,500 level is also the WEEKLY 38.2% retracement level. It would appear, that for whatever reason, this was the level of interest today, and may well be the level of focus tomorrow.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  5:21:41 PM
JPM cut GM to hold, raised Ford to overweight in after hours.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  4:53:33 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  4:10:57 PM
Eagle Broadband (AMEX:EAG) $2.04 +25.15% Link ... BIG volume (32.199 million) today on news at this Link

Looks highly speculative, but might be on a short-term trader's list. I've taken a fitted retracement from the 11/03/03 gap higher low of $0.89 and fit the 38.2% to the 11/06/03 high of $2.13, and stock recently found support at the 19.1% retracement of $1.51.

Stock traded BLUE #18 today of $2.10 if using a stacked 5-MRT.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  4:03:59 PM
Earnings after the close:

LF est +0.73, act = +0.72 guiding inline
AW est +0.12, act = +0.05 miss if clean number
XL est -2.51, act = no release
CRL est +0.38, act = no release
ETS est -0.04, act = -0.04 inline
LZB est +0.29, act = +0.29, 10 cent dividend, 6M share Buyback.
MET est +0.74, act = +0.92
PRU est +0.61, act = +0.92 guiding to low end
SFE est -0.04, act = -0.30 miss
ANSR est +0.03, act = +0.02 miss
CVTX est -1.21, act = -1.21
MANH est +0.22, act = +0.23 beat
MDCO est +0.03, act = +0.05 beat
MNST est +0.10, act = +0.11 modestly higher guidance
NPSP est -1.06, act = -1.31 miss
ORBZ est +0.15, act = +0.06 miss
OSUR est +0.01, act = +0.01 inline
PCLN est +0.04, act = +0.06 guided inline
STRL est +0.38, act = +0.40 beat
SCMR est -0.04, act = -0.04 inline
VITL est +0.50, act = +0.40 miss, guides down
MUSEE est +0.03, act = +0.05

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  4:02:41 PM
I know a lot of traders like to play with low-dollar stocks. Here are a few that looked bullish but would require more research before committing capital.

Calpine Corp (CPN) is an electric utility that has bounced strongly off its 200-dma three days ago and approaching resistance in the 6.30 area.

Dynegy Inc (DYN) is an oil & gas play that is also bouncing from its 200-dma (for the third time in about four months). It just closed over its 50-dma in the $4.40 region.

Allegheny Tech (ATI) is an steel/metals producer that is bouncing from a test of support in the $8.50 range. Shares just closed over the $10 mark today (down from the $14.00 level a month ago).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  3:56:16 PM
Champion Enterprises (CHB) $8.94 +29.75% ... sees late round of buying.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  3:50:35 PM
What do you say about a day like today? There's always the danger of saying too much. Do you talk about the possible H&S now seen on the OEX five-minute chart? The possible double-bottom seen (and briefly confirmed) on the 60-minute chart? The small-bodied daily candle that pierced resistance but then fell back, while still remaining above last week's consolidation band? The upturned 21(3)3 daily stochastics or the generally sloping down but trying to flatten MACD? I still have the impression that we should keep our sights on the Dow and TRAN, and the SOX and BIX.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:48:01 PM
just an observation but that's quite the trend in Novell Inc (NOVL).

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:38:05 PM
Retailer Federated Dept Stores (FD) has rallied back to resistance at the $50.00 level. The stock managed to close over the $50 mark back in November and again two days ago but both times the stock pulled back. Bulls might want to consider a trigger above its current four-year high at $50.60 for a potential run at its all-time highs near $56-57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  3:36:06 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:34:01 PM
Looking for a bearish candidate? Check out McKesson Corp (MCK). The stock looks like a short once it breaks $28.00. The $25.00 is a decent first target but the weekly chart suggests support is closer to $22 while the P&F chart points to a $21 target.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:29:21 PM
Broadcom Corp (BRCM) is up 3.5% today after announcing two new IP phone chips for VoIP small office/home office markets. The RSI and stochastics are bullish and the current move over $40 looks tempting but shares do have a four-week trend of lower lows.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:23:32 PM
Uh-oh...Fortune Brands (FO) broke out yesterday above resistance at the $72.00 level but the rally has failed and shares are now trading closer to $70.50. A move under $70 would break its short-term trend of higher lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  3:23:04 PM
Today the OEX moved high enough to confirm a double-bottom formation on the 60-minute chart, with bullish price/MACD divergence. That confirmation came as the OEX traded above the 2/02 high of 566.42. However, the OEX's drop left only two 60-minute candle shadows spiking above that confirmation level and now there's been tentative bearish divergence between Friday's high and today's, with price moving to a new high, but MACD not doing so. Strange market. I didn't talk about the OEX double-bottom formation because it's been my impression today that investors' eyes were on indices other than the OEX and that the behavior of the SOX, BIX, Dow, and TRAN might guide OEX behavior more than what I saw on an OEX chart. Also, the bottom wasn't much of a bottom. The OEX remains within reach of that double-bottom confirmation level on the 60-minute chart, however, so perhaps it's worth watching.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  3:18:39 PM
Check out shares of GDW. There doesn't seem to be a lot of momentum but GDW has been able to maintain its breakout over the $105 level. Its P&F chart points to a $139 price target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  3:07:47 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  3:04:36 PM
So far today, the Dow's trading pattern has not totally debunked the possible H&S on the daily chart, although it sure looked as if it was doing just that a little earlier. For the last two days, candle shadows have pierced the right-shoulder level without being able to maintain those higher levels. RSI has looked as if it might be on the verge of breaking through its trendline of lower highs, as did MACD, with such breaks suggesting that price will break higher, too, but so far, neither has done so. Still, that right-shoulder formation is getting a bit drawn out now, and without a break to the downside very soon, within a day or so, I would give the formation even less credence than that usually given to H&S formations these days.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  2:56:42 PM
So far today, the SOX's daily candle shows a high-wave candle at the 50-dma. That type of candle is indicative of indecision, and the SOX has remained undecided for a couple of days about driving higher after clearing its 50-dma on Friday. Of course, that candle could change character completely by the close of trading today.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  2:53:50 PM
Shares of Target (TGT) are surging today with a 4% gain after USB reiterated its out perform rating for the stock. The stock appears to be breaking out of its recent consolidation but there is still overhead resistance at $42. TGT is due to report earnings on Feb. 19th.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  2:49:23 PM
Yesterday after the closing bell Dow component MMM raised its quarterly cash dividend 9.1% to 36 cents a share. Today, shares are up more than 2% and breaking out over round-number resistance at $80.00. Its technical oscillators look bullish but the stock still has overhead resistance at its 50-dma and horizontal price resistance at $82 and $83.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  2:43:57 PM
Miscrosoft just announced a major security flaw in windows. Lately it has been the flaw of the week program. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  2:41:18 PM
The OEX is slipping back beneath mid-channel Keltner support after touching the upper Keltner boundary earlier today. It could still find support here, as it did earlier today. Although a move to the upper boundary suggests short-term overbought conditions and a likely move down to mid-channel support, the usual pattern sees the OEX climb along that upper channel boundary an hour or so first unless it punches through it early in the trading day when it tends to be more vulnerable to a quick downturn. This time, though, the shortest-length channel and mid-length channel I watch (9,45) did not travel all the way up to the upper boundary with the OEX, suggesting some divergence from recent patterns, divergence that played out with the quick drop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  2:33:56 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  2:33:37 PM
Yesterday several U.S. poultry-related stocks were trading lower on news that a form of the avian flu had hit a chicken farm in Delaware and a handful of Asian countries, including Japan, announced a ban on chicken imports from the U.S.

Now there is confirmation of a second outbreak on a farm, about 5 miles away from the first case. Officials had tested at least 20 farms in a 2-mile radius of the initial outbreak and they all came back clean. This latest report comes as a complete surprise.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  2:30:52 PM
Once again today, the TRAN hit the 72-ema, exceeding it by a few cents before pulling back. I'm going to have to keep that 72-ema on the TRAN's chart a while longer. I noted last week that some tech stocks/indices seemed to trade in accordance with that average, but so does the TRAN. I thought at first that perhaps it was just that I was noting some times when the 72-ema happened to converge with the 100-ema, as happened in June last year, when the TRAN was finding support at its 100-ema, near the 72-ema. However, today that 100-ema is below at 2866.47, while it's the 72-ema that the TRAN appears to be testing over the last couple of days. I tried changing the 100-ema to a 100-sma, too, seeing if that's the hidden average that was actually impacting trading on the TRAN, but, no, it still looks as if it really is the 72-ema. That average is at 2911.17, with the TRAN high of the day at 2911.58.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  2:21:40 PM
That sell program was a doozy. INDU 10,576 -0.02% now down 1.7 points.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  2:21:00 PM
As I suggested it might be in my 14:00 post, that break above the upper trendline of the OEX symmetrical triangle was a stop-running push, and now we know the answer to whether that push was going to get slapped back, don't we? Sure wish these things came at the 1:45 time that used to be so exact so we'd know, don't you? The drop confirmed a double-top formation on the OEX five-minute chart, with a downside target of about 565.25, which has already been exceeded.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  2:14:57 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,144.04 , OEX = 565.75, INDU = 10,595, QQQ = $37.30

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  2:12:21 PM
Earnings after the close:

LF est +0.73,
XL est -2.51,
CRL est +0.38,
ETS est -0.04,
LZB est +0.29,
MET est +0.74,
PRU est +0.61,
SFE est -0.04,
ANSR est +0.03,
CVTX est -1.21,
MANH est +0.22,
MDCO est +0.03,
MNST est +0.10,
NPSP est -1.06,
OSUR est +0.01,
PCLN est +0.04,
SCMR est -0.04,
VITL est +0.50,
MUSEE est +0.03,

THis will be posted again at the close with the numbers as they appear.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  2:00:54 PM
The OEX is breaking above the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle that began forming on the five-minute chart at about 12:55. Be careful of the possibility that this could be a stop-running push, a little delayed. Bulls want to see a push above the previous high, with that push suggesting a move toward 568-569.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:57:50 PM
A look at the OEX weekly chart shows small-bodied weekly candles with candle bodies lined up along the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. Although a couple of weeks presented the possibility of a pullback being signaled, the current pattern suggests that the OEX could well do what it did from June to August of last year when it a series of candles lined up just above 491, consolidating there and establishing support before the OEX began the next climb. While I hope we don't see two or three months of consolidation at the current level, we have evidence that it can be done as one method of working off overbought pressure. That late November to mid-January climb looks too steep on that weekly chart, as if it's begging for a pullback, but then so did the March-to-June climb last year. On the weekly chart as well as on the daily chart, it looks as if the OEX would have to fall below 557 before that pullback would look to be beginning, but then there's support at 553-554, too.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:48:23 PM
Traders are buying the dip in shares of Juniper Networks (JNPR). After its acquisition news yesterday to buy NSCN for $4 billion in stock JNPR dropped 11%. This morning a wave of upgrades from Prudential (to overweight), from Pacific Crest (to buy), from Raymond James (to strong buy) and a few more analyst reiterating their buy ratings has sparked a 5.3% bounce.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  1:42:31 PM
Post Office in NJ was shut down this morning after poweder found in mail sorting area. (Dow Jones report)

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:40:56 PM
Nimble traders can keep an eye on Agilent Technology (A). The stock has bounced strongly from the $35.00 level of support but A is still struggling with resistance in the 37.50-38.00 level from March 2002. Agilent is due to report earnings on Feb. 17th.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:36:36 PM
Bulls should keep an eye on copper mining operation Phelps Dodge (PD). Shares recently bounced from support at its rising 50-dma and now PD is challenging resistance at the $80.00 mark, which has been a lid on the stock price for six weeks. Giving PD a boost this morning was an upgrade from Lehman Brothers, who lifted PD from an "equal weight" to an "over weight" and raised their price target from $85 to $110.

The fresh buy signal in its MACD looks tempting. Plus the move this morning above $80 produced a triple-top breakout on its P&F chart, which currently points to a $97 price objective.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:35:41 PM
We're approaching one of the typical stop-running times of day, from 1:35-1:55 EST. Of course, sometimes it's a good idea that those stops are run because the push precedes a big move in the direction of the push. Other times, it's not, because after those stops are run, the indices turn around and head the other direction. That's what makes the period treacherous. Of course, those runs haven't been coming with such regularity lately.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  1:27:31 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $6.92 +9.6% ... jumped from the $6.50 level intra-day on rumor of new Time Warner Cable contract.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:21:35 PM
While the Dow moved above yesterday's high, the TRAN has not yet done so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  1:16:34 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:15:42 PM
The OEX shows a steep (too steep, perhaps) ascending trendline off this morning's 9:35 low. Depending on how that trendline is drawn, it crosses at 565.55-565.88. However, since it is so steep, a break of the trendline might only mean that the OEX needs to come down a re-establish a more sustainable climb. Today's pattern is difficult to assess, however, as the OEX has traded to the top Keltner channel boundary, so is susceptible to a pullback toward mid-line Keltner support, but it has not yet reached the 568-569 upside predicted by the 30-minute envelopes.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:13:19 PM
One of the better performers today is Ultra Petroleum Corp (UPL), an independent natural gas exploration and production company. Yesterday after the close they announced a 53% increase in their reserves and a 66% increase for its 2003 production numbers.

Today the stock has garnered an "out perform" and a "buy" rating, which is driving the stock to a 14.8% gain on big volume. UPL is approaching its early January highs (resistance) at $26.50.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:06:32 PM
UTStarcom Inc (UTSI) might be worth watching... The stock broke above resistance at $35.00 and its 200-dma yesterday and today the company announced a $32 million contract with China Netcom. There is some congestion (read: resistance) in the 37.50 region as well as its 50-dma overhead but its technical oscillators like its MACD, RSI and stochastics are all bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:05:44 PM
The OEX hit the target predicted by Jeff's 5MRT day-trading system. Unfortunately for OEX traders, that predicted upside was less than 2.5 points above the entry, but it's still a good way to watch the OEX behavior on some days.

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/10/200,  1:04:18 PM
Linda its OK to mix metaphors - I do it all the time.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  1:02:55 PM
Once again, the Keltner channels showed where upside might take the OEX. It's touched the upper Keltner channel boundary now, but the channels begin to turn up now so it's possible that the OEX might reach toward the 568-569 level predicted by the 30- and 60-minute envelopes before reaching down to re-establish support at the mid-channel Keltner support as it usually does after touching an upper boundary. (Is mixing information about Keltner channels and envelopes akin to mixing metaphors?) Mid-channel Keltner support now has risen to 564.79.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  1:00:30 PM
One of the leading decliners on the NASDAQ today is FindWhat.com (FWHT). The company reported earnings last night of 15 cents a share, which was a penny better than estimates and last year's Q4 profit. Unfortunately, FWHT guided lower for its FY04 numbers with its own estimates for 60 cents a share, below analysts' 63-cent estimates. Plus, the company amended its merger deal with Espotting.

Shares of FWHT are down 15.6% on more than 5 times the average volume. Today's decline has broken support at the 50-dma and 200-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  1:00:21 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.42 +1.71% ... that buy program did have AV trading $18.50, now high of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:59:00 PM
See those recent 5-minute bars on AV and SUI? Just as the buy program prem. alert was generated.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  12:58:07 PM
Now, with the Dow breaking to a new day's high, moving up above yesterday's 10,617.77 high, the OEX breaks toward the upper Keltner channel boundary, too. That move had been suggested all day, but it just didn't look as if it was happening. The 30-minute and 60-minute charts suggest a further climb, up toward 568.61-568.75.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:57:09 PM
Sun Communities (SUI) $41.05 +1.73% ... 52-week high here.

SUI Pig!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:55:35 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,145.00, OEX 566.39, INDU 10,615.55, QQQ = 37.34

First buy program premium I've seen today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:54:25 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6666.66 +0.38% .... looks to challenge 52-week high of 6,680.01 set on 01/22/04.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  12:46:04 PM
In some opex cycles, we've seen more volatility in the week preceding opex week than in opex week. That hasn't been true this week so far, has it? Usually, though, that volatility comes later in the week, nearer Thursday and Friday. Dare we hope?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:44:01 PM
Avaya (AV) $18.32 +1.15% ... day trade bullish fill alert for $18.34.

Blue #0 18.22, #1 18.28, #2 $18.34, #3 $18.377, #4 $18.414, #5 $18.474, #6 $18.535.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:42:47 PM
Winn Dixie (WIN) $6.71 +5.83% ... mentioned this name last week based on insider buying and stock achieving point and figure bearish vertical count of $6.00 for LEAPs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  12:36:39 PM
So far, the OEX has just been squiggling along just above midline support on the five-minute nested Keltner channels I watch, but it hasn't been able to break out to move toward the upper channel boundary, now at 566.96. Similarly, the 30-minute and 60-minute charts show the OEX trading above the central 21-pma's I watch, but not yet able to break above recent resistance to move toward the 568.66 and 568.52 top envelope boundaries on the 0.675% envelopes surrounding that MA. The charts suggest that such breakouts could occur, but perhaps the OEX is being held back because other key indices are facing key levels of resistance, such as the Dow's test of 10,600 and then yesterday's high; and the SOX's, COMPX's and NDX's tests of their 60-minute 100/130-pma's. Those other tests may be more predictive of ultimate OEX direction than what I'm seeing on the OEX charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:32:47 PM
Day trade long alert ... Avaya (AV) $18.40 +1.60% ... trade on on pullback to BLUE #2 of $18.34, stop $18.21, target $18.49.

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/10/200,  12:29:43 PM
Jeff - too funny!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:27:41 PM
Columbian drug lords have been known to use the "3 line price break" Jane. (grin)

I can say with great certainty that I have never heard of anything called a 3-line price break.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  12:10:09 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  11:57:55 AM
Champion Enterprises (CHB) $7.99 +15.9% Link ... Only component within the Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 579.93 -0.58% showing a gain in today's session.

CHB is manufacturer of pre-manufactured homes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  11:50:04 AM
So far, the SOX has not been able to punch above the descending trendline that began forming from Friday's high, with that trendline perhaps describing the top of a bull flag pullback after the SOX flagpole climb. The pullback has not retraced more than 50% of the flagpole climb, so this could still be described as a possible bull flag pullback. Depending on outlook, it's possible to look at the SOX action in a less bullish aspect, however, with the SOX move on Friday pushing it slightly above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but with the SOX this morning easing back below those averages. Although the SOX tends to trade more in accordance with the 30-minute versions of those averages, I wouldn't ignore the 60-minute versions, particularly as the COMPX and NDX also are slipping below the 60-minute versions this morning. This is either a test preliminary to another bounce after these averages are confirmed as support or else this is a slow easing lower preliminary to a rollover beneath these averages. I don't know which it is as yet, although I can't help thinking that the markets feel heavy today. I keep looking for a reason for that impression, but haven't found it other than in the Dow's failure to push higher and a few other details, so it just remains a feeling for now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  11:41:40 AM
As of a few moments ago, total volume was 439 million on the NYSE and 640 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios were 19:12 for the NYSE and 17:12 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was stronger on both exchanges, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  11:39:20 AM
Cavalier Homes (CAV) $4.27 +11.19% Link .... maker of manufactured homes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  11:38:39 AM
Swing trade long alert .... Sun Communities (SUI) $40.84 +1.18% here, stop $39.25, target $45.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  11:32:01 AM
Unlike several recent days, the OEX traded outside the neutral zone in Jeff's 5MRT system when it pushed above 564.70 this morning. The bullish #6 according to that daytrading system is at 567.03, corresponding well with the upside suggested by the upper Keltner channel boundary. We see lots of reason to believe in upside to 567-568, then, but I'm just now sure how likely that is.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  11:20:59 AM
The OEX is testing last Keltner resistance ahead of 567.05. That resistance is at the current (565.91 at the time I began typing) OEX level. So far, the OEX isn't breaking above that last resistance, but the Keltner channels haven't turned down yet, either. Watching 30-minute envelopes, there's been a bounce from the 21-pma and from a former ascending trendline that began forming week before last, and that means that the envelopes show a possibility of upside to 567.93. Still, the 566.20-566.50 zone has been one that's turned back the OEX on two occasions in February, so I'm not sure how much I believe in further upside, despite what the Keltner channels and envelopes say is possible. A lot may depend on strength in those other indices we've been watching, particularly the Dow as so many watch this index.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  11:09:25 AM
Checking various indices, I see that both the BIX and the SOX are having perhaps temporary difficulties with the resistance offered by their 30-minute 21-pma's, with the BIX trading sideways below that average and the SOX pushing above it and then pulling back again. The SOX remains above its 50-dma, however. As Jim has mentioned, the DOW has not yet traded above yesterday's high. The TRAN does battle with the 2900 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  11:04:58 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:56:20 AM
The BIX is also bouncing from this morning's test of its 30-minute 100-pma. Like the SOX, the BIX has not yet confirmed that strength by a move above the short-term descending trendline it began building off Friday's high. The way these indices are charging higher, it won't be long until a test of those trendlines occurs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  10:53:29 AM
QQQ $37.29 +0.46% ... I see the session low of $37.03 found a pretty good bounce from the correlative WEEKLY Pivot (36.98) and DAILY S1 (36.99)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:47:51 AM
The SOX bounced from its 30-minute 100-pma and has moved back above the 130-pma, too, with that move typically a buy signal. It's facing the 21-pma (and passing it as I type), though, but since this morning's move has also bumped it back above the 50-dma, at 514.94, and since 30-minute oscillators now look more bullish, we can likely begin to have some faith in the SOX bounce from the 30-minute 100-pma. I'd like to see it above the short-term descending trendline off Friday's high before I consider that strength confirmed, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  10:45:43 AM
Sun Communities (SUI) $40.50 +0.37% Link ... a self-managed REIT which owns, operates, develops and finances manufactured housing communities concentrated in the midwestern and southeastern U.S.

Annual Dividend of $2.44 has current yield of 6.02%.

See 10:37:35 note

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  10:43:09 AM
Crossing the wires is news that OPEC has voted on a 1 million barrel cut in its quotas by April 1st.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  10:40:50 AM
Current OI put play AVID has managed to put together two days of losses during this week's sideways market action. Shares hit a new relative low during the first hour of trading and while they have bounced AVID remains under the $42 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  10:38:14 AM
Current OI call play IBM is also bouncing higher today after three days of consolidating above the $98.00 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  10:37:35 AM
Manufactured Home (NYSE:MHC) $35.56 +2.98% Link ... higher after Wall Street Journal reported that Fannie Mae is preparing to increase its financing of manufactured housing, even though it has suffered heavy losses in that sector sector during the past year.

 
 
  James Brown   2/10/200,  10:34:59 AM
Once again current OI call play ESRX is bouncing higher from the $68.00 level. A move back over $70 would be encouraging but more conservative investors may want to wait for ESRX to clear new resistance at $71.00 before considering new positions. Earnings are expected on Feb. 24th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  10:32:33 AM
Sector action shows fractional gains and losses scattered across the board.

Oil Service (OSX.X) 103.59 +1.38% only sector showing gains >1% while Oil (OIX.X) 319.65 -0.6% and Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 232.76 -0.61% show fractional losses.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:30:27 AM
The SOX now sits just above its 30-minute 100-pma. I was suspicious of that SOX strength on Friday, but so far, this pullback just constitutes a retest of the support at the top of the 60-minute descending regression channel that had begun building on 1/12. The top of the channel lies at 508, and the SOX broke through that channel on Friday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:21:15 AM
The BIX had traded sideways as the 30-minute 21-pma rose under prices, hinting that it might provide support. Instead, the BIX fell through that support yesterday afternoon, trading down this morning low enough to test its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 350.40 and 349.99, respectively. A bounce from those averages would be a sign of strength, although the BIX would soon face resistance at its 21-pma, while a fall through those averages would be a sign of weakness. BIX strength or weakness is important to the OEX. Currently, the BIX is at 350.61. Thirty-minute oscillators look weak, but they'll follow price rather than the other way around.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  10:17:05 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:11:46 AM
The move was somewhat delayed, but the OEX finally reacted to the Richmond Fed Survey, pushing above mid-channel Keltner resistance and its daily pivot, touching its 30-minute 21-pma. It's falling back below some of those levels now, but that may be only a temporary pullback. The OEX is still in testing mode, not zooming up just yet but not getting slapped back, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/10/200,  10:06:42 AM
The first half hour's put to call ratio is neutral at .65. VXO is currently up 1.14% at 15.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  10:04:32 AM
So far, the OEX has not been able to sustain levels above the daily pivot, the mid-channel Keltner resistance, or the 30-minute 21-pma. It's trapped between important support and perhaps slightly less important resistance, with the result not yet clear.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  10:00:22 AM
Richmond Fed Survey was 18, last month it was 8.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/10/200,  9:59:59 AM
The Fed has added a 5B overnight repo to replace the expiring 6B from yesterday, for a net drain of 1B.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:57:19 AM
The OEX is bouncing from its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, as expected. The real test is going to be the daily pivot at 564.44, central Keltner resistance at the current 564.32, and the 30-minute 21-pma at 564.84. We expected the bounce. Can the OEX make it back above all those of levels and then sustain the gains?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:44:10 AM
Here's a picture of the TRAN's daily chart: Link Notice that it has not yet retraced quite 38.2% of the recent plunge, with typical retracements being 1/3-2/3 of the previous move. It turned down yesterday below that 38.2% retracement, but daily oscillators are mixed, showing that it could continue to climb. Until it's over a 50% retracement of that decline, however, we can't consider this bounce a bullish move. Remember that 72-ema we discussed last week? That's the green average on this chart. Note how the TRAN hit it exactly yesterday before turning down. Hmm.

As do many others, I watch the TRAN because of its importance in relationship to its sister index, the Dow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  9:42:15 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.90 +1.02% Link ... closed end junk bond fund trades 52-week high here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:39:44 AM
The SOX is testing its 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 512.48 and 514.14, respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:37:45 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 563.72 to 563.26, with a midpoint at 563.49, and with the OEX currently just above that midpoint. With the typical first retracement beginning in a few minutes, it's too early to draw conclusions as to whether the OEX is going to be able to sustain levels above that midpoint or not.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  9:37:36 AM
e-mini S&P futures (es04h) chart, which is same type of chart shown in last night's Index Trader Wrap for the cash SPX. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/10/200,  9:29:45 AM
Rumor has it that Charles Schwab (SCH) will make a major announcement today. Nobody knows the topic. Some speculate it will be a drastic revamp of online trading commissions or an acquisition. The rumor was due to a comment on Nightly Business Report yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/10/200,  9:18:08 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:13:06 AM
News reports from Iraq report that a massive car bomb hit a police station south of Baghdad. According to one report that I haven't been able to identify, the bomb hit as recruits were gathering at the station. Some say that as many as 50 have been killed. Last night, television news featured information that Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists were considering switching tactics from targeting the U.S. forces in Iraq, who would not leave Iraq no matter what was done, to ethnic groups within Iraq, hopefully triggering a civil war that would accomplish what attacks on U.S. troops could not do.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  9:04:22 AM
Yesterday, the OEX ended the day just above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 563 and 562.91, respectively; and near the 60-minute 21- and 100-pma's, at 562.92 and 562.35, respectively. In addition, the daily 21-pma is at 562.79, and the 10-dma at 562.44. For those who follow pivot analysis, the OEX also ended just cents above the weekly pivot at 563.27. The OEX also ended the day at the top of the recent consolidation band which had mostly contained prices (with the exception of 2/02's high) since late January. All those levels of potential support coming together may suggest that this pullback will soon find a support level from which it will bounce, or at least attempt a bounce. It seems clear that the field from 562.35-563.50 is layered with one type of support after another, providing a base under the OEX as it declined.

However, the OEX also ended the day below mid-channel Keltner support, at 564.34. One key in early trading may be whether the OEX opens below that weekly pivot, and so would conceivably then find that level as resistance added to mid-channel Keltner resistance, or whether it opens above that weekly pivot. When prices carry into the bottom half of the nested Keltner channels, that usually projects a continued downward movement, but sometimes channel support or resistance is overshot on either end-of-day or first-of-day volatility, so it's possible that the OEX just overshot that support a bit.

With daily 5(3)3 stochastics in full bull run and with 21(3)3 stochastics making a bullish cross, but with RSI and MACD less committed to the upside, signals are mixed. The Dow's behavior should also be closely watched, as that potential H&S remains a possibility even if few of these have confirmed lately, and the SOX should also be watched, particularly as it closed back slightly below its 50-dma. That SOX close presents the possibility that the bounce had been a reflexive or relief bounce that overshot that key average a bit on Friday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/10/200,  8:24:29 AM
No major economic reports this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/10/200,  7:29:04 AM
Good morning. With Japan's Finance Minister Tanigaki claiming that the G7's weekend statement for more flexibility in exchange rates wasn't targeted at Japan, Japanese lawmakers allocated 21 trillion yen for sales meant to retard the yen's gains against the dollar. A Morgan Stanley analyst apparently agreed with Tanigaki's assessment. The yen weakened as Japanese markets opened. While a weakening yen usually helps the export-driven Japanese bourses, the Nikkei opened just above 10,400 in Tuesday's trading and climbed to 10,460 before diving 140 points by midmorning. Those morning levels were to define the high and low of the day. During the afternoon, the Nikkei climbed, but never reached the opening level or the previous high of the day. The Nikkei closed down 37.21 points or 0.36%, at 10,365.40. During the day, it traded as low as 10,299.43, achieving the 10,300 downside target predicted by the P&F chart.

Economic releases showed December's household spending by wage earners climbing 0.4% over the year-ago period, although FY 2003 spending decreased by 0.8%. January's Tokyo consumer confidence index climbed to 44.3 from December's 42.9. Explaining the downturn in the markets despite economic releases viewed as mostly positive, some market watchers again mentioned the February pattern that sees banks selling some of their holdings ahead of the end of the fiscal year in late March. Japan has a national holiday tomorrow, and some mentioned low volume ahead of that holiday as one cause to Tuesday's decline. A Japanese analyst at Nomura also added to early weakness, trimming Nikon and DoCoMo to reduce ratings and lowering mobile-phone operator KDDI to a buy rating from the previous strong buy rating. The analyst cut ratings on mobile-phone operators due to competition, sending NTT DoCoMo and KDDI Corp. lower in early trading. The analyst lowered the telecommunications sector to a bearish rating from a former neutral rating. By the end of the day, however, NTT DoCoMo had gained 3.8%, reversing that company's early-morning trend. In addition to being hit by that downgrade, Nikon had also lowered its annual profit forecast, citing falling prices as one reason. Nikon closed lower by 10.4%.

Toyota bucked the trend toward weakness in early trading, gaining at least partly due to the early weakness in the yen, but also due to the company's agreement to hand over to Mazda its G-Book in-vehicle network information service. Both Toyota and Mazda ended higher, with Mazda making plans for compatible terminals in its domestic vehicles by 2005. Other carmakers were mixed. Tech stocks mostly closed lower. Banks mostly closed higher.

Other Asian bourses turned in a mixed performance. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.39% and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.23%. Hyundai Motor fell ahead of its earnings report and Shinhan Financial Group fell after its earnings report. Samsung Electronics gained. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.82%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.45% despite the territory's Bank of East Asia rising after reporting earnings termed upbeat. The bank saw a decrease in bad loans and an increase in fee income. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.73%

Many European bourses trade lower this morning, perhaps due to several causes. The euro was trading higher against the dollar after the ECB's Chief Economist Otmar Issing was quoted by a German newspaper as saying that he would not approve of short-term intervention efforts to lower the euro against the dollar. In London, BP is one of the most actively traded stocks after its earnings report showed Q4 profit lower than expected. BP was down 16 points in London as I typed. In Europe, other companies such as UBS, Philips, and Renault reported earnings deemed as strong, with those companies trading higher but not able to bring the European bourses higher with them. Swiss bank UBS beat forecasts, turning in a 2003 profit that rose 81%, and raising its 2003 dividend 30%. The company reported other good news, but Merrill Lynch tried to rain on their parade a little by saying the compensation to income ratio was not sustainable. The firm said UBS's report reflected less aggressive hiring, and pointed to lower costs and taxes as being partly responsible for UBS's strong showing. Philips Electronics also beat expectations with a higher Q4 profit and operating profit than expected. Strong sales of semiconductors and consumer electronics were mentioned, but so were cost-cutting efforts and higher pension costs. Renault also beat expectations, with subsidiary Nissan's strong growth helping to account for those better-than-expected results. Improved prices helped overcome the negative impact of exchange rates. Other stock-specific news included Alcatel's announcement that it would create a new company with Dutch holding group Draka, with that new company for the optical fiber and communications cable businesses that the two companies share. Both Draka and Alcatel were gaining as a result of that announcement. German bank HVB might issue new shares, according to a media report, with that report sending the bank lower in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has dropped 25.40 points or 0.57%, to 4409.00. The CAC 40 has lost 11.33 points or 0.31%, to trade at 3652.40. The DAX trades flat, down 1.64 points or 0.04%, to 4097.33.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/9/2004,  8:16:11 PM
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