Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  6:28:57 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  5:30:21 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  5:29:10 PM
SONE est +0.03, act = +0.05

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:57:33 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $44.06 .... very active with over 3.9 million shares traded in after-hours. Has been volatile from $44-$49 quick swings. Likely a bunch of scalpers/day traders trading the stock.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:42:36 PM
S1 Corp. (SONE) $8.60 +4.36% ... no sign of earnings that I've found at this point. Conference call scheduled to begin at 05:00 PM EST. Link

I won't be able to listen in as I've got to get started on Index Trader Wrap, but above link has info.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:30:03 PM
Dell Computer (DELL) $33.57 -0.35% ... $33.32 here in after-hours.

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  4:25:02 PM
RJF 3:2 stock split, may be fined by SEC, stock still halted

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:23:30 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $45.00 ... after-hours low/high so far $44.30-$50.00

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:19:58 PM
ImClone (IMCL) .... released for trade $46.00

Here is an option montage of call/put symbols for those that may be needing a hedge. Prices are not current. Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  4:10:09 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $33.99 ... CNBC reporting that NASDAQ will lift trading halt in approximately 10-minutes.

Time here: 4:10:30.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  4:09:38 PM
Reader Request TASR: stock rose in two days from 130.00 to 180.84, split was yesterday. Up today another 23.70% to split basis 3 for 1, as I write, stock is 61.77. Have you seen any news on the stock? Shorts are just being shattered all over the chart, since every uptick is a new high. Do you see any resistance or re-group to test some support?

Response: I'm late responding to this email, and I apologize. I'm not finding news other than that you mentioned, either. As many know, I take a look at TASR now and then out of amazement, but haven't wanted to touch it, either long or short, so I don't watch it day to day. Since TASR today achieved another all-time high (on a split-adjusted basis), there's no resistance to find, other than that presumed at round-number resistance levels. Since TASR didn't have too much difficulty with those levels the first time around, I can't guarantee that it will this time, either, now that it's trading on a split-adjusted basis. It's been bouncing around pretty much today, too, establishing intraday S/R at $54.25 and near $60. One thing I sometimes do with stocks trading at new highs is to try to fit a retracement bracket on the stock in which a way that some important retracement levels appear to have hit levels of S/R on the bar chart. I did that with TASR, too. Here's one possibility, showing possible upside toward $80.00, although this is just guesswork: Link Note: I do know the difference in "it's" and "its," but was in a hurry to get that chart posted, and I've used "it's" incorrectly.

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  4:00:15 PM
Earnings after the close:

ADIC est +0.08, act = +0.08
ADI est +0.28, act = +0.30 Guides higher
CEPH est +0.52, act = +0.52
DELL est +0.28, act = +0.29 Guides inline
NVDA est +0.11, act = +0.14 revenue light
SONE est +0.03, act = +0.05
PHS est +0.53, act = +0.54
SDS est +0.36, act = +0.38

IMCL will resume trading at 4:20 ET
RJF 3:2 stock split, may be fined by SEC, stock still halted

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:55:11 PM
SWC $13.22 here after decline to $13.10

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:52:25 PM
A quick note... Siebel Systems (SEBL) looks bullish with today's breakout over the $14 level and its 50-dma. The $16 level looks like a decent target.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:51:42 PM
Day trade stop alert ... SWC at $13.22

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:49:29 PM
Keep an eye on AutoZone (AZO). The stock broke out above resistance at its 50-dma, 200-dma and $86-87 range several days ago and have now filled the gap down from December. Normally the top and the bottom of big gaps tend to be support or resistance depending on what side the stock is on.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:43:57 PM
Did I say Valentines Day? I mean Singles-Awareness-Day.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:43:22 PM
Hmm.. what are the odds that we'll see some post-Valentines Day deflation in shares of Hershey (HSY). The stock has been up almost non-stop the from January 29th and currently trading near all-time highs under resistance at $80.00.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:36:40 PM
As Keene suggested, don't forget that DELL reports after the close today. Estimates are for 28 cents a share.

  Jane Fox   2/12/200,  3:36:15 PM
Dateline WSJ Erbitux, the drug at the center of the Martha Stewart scandal, won government approval Thursday as a treatment for colorectal cancer patients who have run out of other options.

Manufacturer ImClone Systems Inc. initially sought FDA approval in 2001. But the agency in December of that year said the company's studies were so poorly done that scientists couldn't even evaluate whether Erbitux actually helped patients.

That rejection sent ImClone's stock plummeting. Chief Executive Sam Waksal is in prison after pleading guilty to securities fraud for dumping his stock just before the news became public. Now his friend, domestic diva Ms. Stewart, is on trial, accused of securities fraud in dumping her own holdings and of lying to investigators.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:33:25 PM
Aggressive bears might want to keep an eye on McGraw Hill (MHP). Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to "equal weight" on valuation concerns. The stock looks very overbought and dropped 4% on the downgrade. There is some minor support at $76 and additional support at $72 above its 50-dma.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  3:30:36 PM
Remember Leigh's weekend index wrap, in which I believe he predicted an equal high on the OEX, if I'm remembering correctly? Pretty interesting if that's what should develop.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  3:28:20 PM
RSI hooks down again on the daily OEX chart. If it continues down from here with prices continuing down, too, the RSI will have signaled bearish divergence with price, since price made an equal high yesterday but RSI made a lower high. A double-top formation wouldn't be confirmed until and unless the OEX fell below that 557.36 number that we were watching so closely last week, and that seems a long, long way away from current prices, but I'm just noting what's showing up on the chart.

Not many indices made equal highs yesterday, though. The Wilshire was another. Although the Wilshire did reach a slightly higher high, it was still within an equal high range. What's interesting is RSI behavior. Remember the last few days when I was watching how the Dow's daily RSI behaved with respect to a descending trendline? When RSI punched through that trendline, I mentioned that prices might be expected to move higher, too, undoing the possibility of a H&S on the Dow's daily chart. RSI trendline breaks sometimes precede price breaks, and RSI bounces back from a trendline sometimes predict how prices will behave, too. RSI did not break through its descending trendline on the Wilshire's daily chart, and today it hooks down below that trendline. RSI can be fickle and this hook is a minor downturn only, but if it continues, that could be predicting a downturn in prices, too.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:26:53 PM
It's speculation on my part but Forest Labs (FRX) is starting to look vulnerable. Jeff is normally the FRX expert but a pull back from $75 to $70 would be close to a 25% retracement of the November-January rally.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:24:14 PM
Swing trade exit alert .... Bema Gold (BGO) $3.41 bid. Exit here.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:23:37 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.84 -1.29% ... lows of the session.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  3:18:59 PM
Scanning different sectors using five-minute Keltner charts, I note that the BIX also hugs mid-channel support, while the SOX has already dipped below that support and appears headed down toward the lower support currently offered at 517.14. First, though, it appears that the SOX will attempt a bounce from support near 520, with first resistance now at 520.33, but gathering more strongly from 521.22-522.25.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  3:16:40 PM
Today's candle in OI call play PD is a concern. It looks like the current push higher is running out of steam and we could see some actual profit taking tomorrow. Protect your play or plan your new entry accordingly.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:10:01 PM
SWC ... those just filled at the bid of $13.31, DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT now place your stop for the specialist to see at $13.22. He'll come and get it. If a short looking to cover, let'em sweat, make the short think your competitition. Short most likely not wanting to go home short and today is his cover day, where we would look for him to buy to the close to get flat his short.

I would also add that those long, should NOT go a place their sell order at $13.49 either. What I'll do is get the order lined up at my broker screen, where all I have to do is click the sell button. I like to let the bid build where I want to sell, then press the button.

Don't show your hand if you don't have to.

Disclosure: Dut to company policy, I can not trade individual stocks I discuss in the market monitor.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:06:04 PM
Day trade long alert .... SWC $13.31 here, stop $13.22, target $13.49.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:05:22 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $13.30 +2.3% ... just looks like a short trying to cover from $13.00, doesn't it?

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  3:01:38 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 520.77 -1.13% .... just sitting here since seeing trade at DAILY S1.

In my QQQ day trade bullish, I thought that might be an intra-day level to look for a bounce in the SOX and QQQ.

Then the IMCL news...

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  2:58:03 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $57.88 +16% ... off its session high of $67.75, but stock continue to see shorts getting squeezed.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  2:52:27 PM
I'm bored enough with the market behavior that I'm scanning charts for interesting candlestick patterns. Someone mentioned KO the other day. James, was that you? Monday saw big gains in KO with a tall white candle. Since then, KO has been pulling back, but a study of candlestick patterns shows the pullback since Monday to be part of a possible bullish formation known as a rising three methods pattern. Here's the chart and an explanation: Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  2:44:55 PM
ImClone (IMCL) still halted.

Traders looking to trade the stock, or have open orders need to be very certain of their broker confirmations.

Don't get COCO'd where bulls that did buy the dip and sold the bounce, ended up having their bullish trades cancelled, to then find out they were then short the stock as it surged higher.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  2:42:05 PM
If the OEX just holds up long enough, that bottom Keltner channel support is going to rise up and tap it. That support is now at 567.25.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  2:37:36 PM
The OEX is still scrabble higher from support at the top of the descending regression channel that has carried its prices down most of the day, with the outcome still in question.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  2:34:30 PM
I'm seeing an UNCONFIRMED rumor that BMY will handle the marketing and distribution of Erbitux.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  2:29:08 PM
Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX:BBH) 145.02 +0.68% ...

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  2:23:01 PM
QQQ $37.38 -0.53% ... I'm not sure why we're seeing some QQQ volatility taking place with the Imclone (IMCL) news, as IMCL no longer a component.

My only thought is that there may have been some hedge funds trying to play some biotech exposure. Not certain though.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  2:12:07 PM
A moment of silence for IMCL shorts still enjoying their final cigarettes inside the trading halt. The bid just flashed 145.90 for a second, still halted though and is back down to 46.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  2:09:30 PM
According to the regression channel Q-charts drew on the OEX five-minute chart, the OEX is attempting a breakout out of the descending regression channel that began forming at about 10:00 this morning, but so far, only the candle shadows have been able to break above the top of the channel. At the same time, the OEX does battle with central Keltner channel support/resistance, with lines converging now above and below the current OEX position. The OEX is also doing battle with the 30-minute 18/21-pma's, just overhead at 570.92 and 570.56. It's tough to call. The 30-minute oscillators descend, but at that flat angle I mentioned earlier, and they're already looking as if they're trying to turn up again. This push to the top of the regression channel came during the usual stop-running time of day, and so remains suspect now, but the OEX hasn't gotten slapped back, either.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  2:07:12 PM
Stillwater Minining (SWC) $13.50 +3.84% Link ... sudden spike higher from $13.00.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  2:01:54 PM
IMCL current bid is 46.10, last trade listed as 34.01 down 9.09, still halted according to IB.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  2:00:44 PM
The chartboards are turning hysterical over IMCL- should be a monster squeeze there.

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  2:00:12 PM
No option prices being quoted on IMCL

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:58:45 PM
Buy program alert ... QQQ now higher at $37.45.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:58:20 PM
Reuters reporting that the FDA has approved ImClones (IMCL) cancer drug Erbitux.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  1:54:46 PM
The TRAN still shows that doji at resistance, with the current TRAN level sitting almost on that 50% retracement of the recent plunge. When I talked this morning about the TRAN, I forgot to mention that in addition to the resistance offered by that 50% retracement level, a whole host of moving average snake down toward that 50% level at about 2951.88, with the 21-dma at 2962.14, the 50-dma at 2964.31, and the 30-dma at 2979.87.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:45:09 PM
ImClone (IMCL) halted, news pending.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:42:51 PM
QQQ $37.31 ... stopped day trade long alert

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  1:41:32 PM
The OEX continues to drift lower, but slowly enough that Keltner support is drifting lower along with prices. The 60-minute chart shows a bearish cross from above signal on the MACD, but MACD hasn't yet violated its trend of higher lows. That chart shows a steep ascending trendline off the 2/05 low with support from that trendline and the 18/21-pma's coming together from 568.08-568.95. The Keltner channels begin to suggest downside to 567.19, though, with that bottom channel support now descending. There's still last-ditch support at the current level, but unless the OEX rebounds quickly, it's going to fall through that support.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:39:15 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $23.87 -19% ... European patent office confirms that it has revoked Rambus patent.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:35:10 PM
ImClone Systems (IMCL) $33.11 -23.17% ... plunges from $42. .... This may be bad tick, hold on. Volume spike of 600,000 shares on my Qcharts.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:27:44 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:23:38 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 521.57 -0.99% ... session low has been 519.84 (see 13:15:17)

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:22:56 PM
QQQ alert $37.42 ...

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:20:54 PM
Day trade long alert ... if QQQ trades $37.42 go long, stop $37.31, target $37.60.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  1:15:17 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 520.17 -1.25% ... sector loser today. Just testing its DAILY S1 of 519.91.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  1:12:02 PM
The OEX upside break in the possible falling wedge is not happening, at least not yet, and the formation now resolves into something that more closely resembles a descending regression channel. The TRIN just keeps rising. Today has so far been a day when short-term bearish formations do confirm and meet their downside targets while bullish ones tend not to confirm. The OEX is still trying to find its footing at mid-channel Keltner support, however.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  12:58:26 PM
That decline down toward mid-channel Keltner support on the OEX is beginning to take on a falling wedge look, with a falling wedge being a bullish formation that is likely to break to the upside. Of course, the OEX took on that falling-wedge look only after it had broken through the morning's support level, so we'll see if that upside break happens. That would fit with a bounce from mid-channel support and from the 30-minute 21-pma.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  12:56:14 PM
Airline stocks (XAL +2.19%) and Healthcare issues (HMO +1.46%) have been able to maintain their gains today but tech stocks have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Semis are leading the way down (SOX -1%) while the rest (disk drives, hardware, software, internets and networking) are all in the red.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  12:43:44 PM
Buy/sell program premium alerts ... other than the sell program premium alert at the open, I show one buy program premium alert at approximately 11:30 AM, where the SPX had traded down to its WEEKLY R2 of 1,155.01 and moved back above its MONTHLY R1 of 1,555.98.

SPX 1,152.55 has sinced move back below its WEEKLY R2 and now sees session low and test of DAILY Pivot (1,152.99).

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  12:43:43 PM
Now the OEX has retraced to mid-channel Keltner support, as yesterday's violation of the upper channel boundary suggested it would do. The next question is whether it will stop here or retrace to bottom support. Since the violation was so extreme yesterday, the suggested outcome is a retracement all the way to the bottom of the channel, but unless there's going to be a cascading fall, there should probably be a stronger bounce attempt than that tepid one we saw a few minutes after my last post. That one didn't even last out a single five-minute candle. Unless the OEX begins that bounce soon, however, it's going to be out of reach of the last Keltner support before the bottom channel support.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  12:36:28 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   2/12/200,  12:35:27 PM
too funny!

  Jane Fox   2/12/200,  12:34:46 PM
At New York's Kennedy airport today, an Iidividual later discovered to be a public school teacher was arrested trying to Board a flight while in possession of a ruler, protractor, set square, slide rule, and calculator. At a morning press conference, Attorney general John Ashcroft said he believes the man is a member of the notorious al-gebra movement. He is being charged by the FBI with carrying weapons of math instruction.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  12:17:26 PM
Ciber Inc. (CBR) ... $9.59 -0.1% Link ... battles back from session low of $9.37 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.07 per share, which matched consensus of $0.07.

Here too, not much coverage with just 5 analysts following this Colorado-based IT consulting company.

Keane Inc. (KEA) $15.48 -0.83% Link ... is a "like stock" I'll monitor along with CBR. KEA has 12 analysts following its fundamentals.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  12:12:44 PM
Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't think I'd seen the OEX violate the Keltner channels to the degree that it had done yesterday morning and then again in the afternoon, but like all indicators, the Keltner bands can redraw themselves a bit, too, smoothing out the rough edges, and today that violation doesn't look as extreme. It was still a violation that occurred over several hours, however. Those who elected to take bullish profits at the close yesterday are probably congratulating themselves today. Still, I've been expecting at least some attempt at a bounce from the current level down to 569.90, and I really don't have much of a feeling for where the OEX might go on that bounce attempt.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  12:09:12 PM
S1 Corp. (SONE) $8.49 +3.03% Link ... stock made a quick intra-day move higher from $8.23 to its 5-MRT BLUE #6 of $8.53, to then make a session high of $8.60, just shy of its MONTHLY Pivot.

No news that I can find, but company does report earnings after the close. Consensus estimates are for the company to report earnings of $0.03 per share.

After big upside suprise on October 30th, SONE has been bound between $7.50 and $9.50.

Stock doesn't get much analyst coverage, as only 4 analysts from the fundamental side currently providing coverage.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  12:07:09 PM
Retail drug store CVS Corp (CVS) is trading higher today after announcing earnings that beat the street by 6 cents this morning. Q4 same-store sales rose 7.4% while January same-store sales rose 5.6%. Shares are up 3.23% today but still under resistance in the 37.50-38.00 range.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  11:58:10 AM
The OEX now does dip toward that mid-channel support on the Keltner channels and toward the 30-minute 18/21-pma's just below at 570.19 and 569.49. Somewhere through here, we should see a bounce attempt begin. If not, the OEX confirms even more weakness, but I'd sure want to see the TRIN continue to rise, as it has been doing, before I believed in that weakness.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  11:57:00 AM
An upgrade to "over weight" by Prudential has sent shares of Qwest Communications (Q) to a new five-month high and the stock is breaking out over resistance near the 4.50-4.60 level. Technical oscillators are bullish but shares are starting to look a little over bought from its lows three weeks ago near the $3.85 level (that's a 20% gain).

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  11:54:40 AM
So far, the OEX has not been able to confirm its double-bottom formation on its five-minute chart. A move below the day's low will render that potential formation defunct, but so far that hasn't happened. A failure to confirm a potential bullish formation will instead confirm the weakness seen earlier when the OEX did meet the downside target of a short-term bearish formation. So far, such weakness predicts only a fall toward mid-channel Keltner support, now risen to 569.84, or lower channel support, now risen to 566.89.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  11:50:12 AM
The TRAN has pushed above a 50% retracement of the recent plunge, although only a few points above that level. The daily oscillators show that plenty more upside is possible, although RSI keeps trying to hook down. The daily candle is so far a high-wave doji at resistance, a possible reversal signal at the top of the bounce, but it's still early in the day and that candle can change character several times between now and the close.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  11:41:24 AM
Jeff mentioned earlier that Aetna (AET) had reported earnings this morning. The news has prompted a $4.15 move (5.79%) to a new all time high at $75.75. AET might be worth adding to the watch list to look for shares to fill the gap from the morning and bounce from the $73.00 level.

Yesterday American Intl Group (AIG), another huge insurance company, reported earnings and beat by a penny. The stock has been very strong and there was no post-earnings sell-off.

It's interesting how the IUX insurance index has been a real leader in this market since Thanksgiving last year with hardly a pause in its bullish run.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  11:40:55 AM
Yes, Linda, and have noticed that too. For some reason, the voices of Jessica Ettinger-Whatever and John Tucker go straight to my hypothalamus and provoke instant rage. Their voices are amped at twice the volume of the senators and Al Green as well, so their impromptu interruptions are particularly frustrating. Sorry- rant off.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  11:36:13 AM
An OEX move (and five-minute close) above 571.97 will confirm a double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart. The upside target would be around 573.40. This morning, we saw a double-top formation confirm and meet its downside target, affirming the early-morning weakness. Now we can see if this bullish formation is confirmed, a first sign of renewed strength, and then if its upside target is met, a further sign. Keltner channels suggest that the OEX might have difficulty rising that far, at least as they're configured now, but then it's always possible for the OEX to pierce them once again. A measured move higher would allow channel lines to rise with price, but as they're configured now, they suggest a lower high and then another downturn toward mid-channel support.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  11:21:23 AM
March Palladium (pa04h) 245.00 +1.51% ...

SWC $13.00 (unch) Link , PAL $9.77 +4.26% Link making new 52-weeker.

I've heard reports that SWC has bulk of this year's production hedged at higher price levels. I've also heard from a buddy of mine that makes sales calls to their Montana mine that SWC is drilling new shaft as we speak, with hopes of building production.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  11:11:41 AM
The OEX again dips toward mid-channel Keltner support again, but it's still not clear that it's ready to dip all the way to that support, currently at 569.66 but rising, just yet. The TRIN is rising, but not by much. On the 30-minute chart, the OEX looks as if it might trade sideways while the 21-pma rises underneath current price. That 21-pma is now at 569.09, and at the rate it's rising, it should converge with prices by early tomorrow morning at the latest. Sometimes the OEX shortcuts that process by making a dip down to that moving average after a period of sideways trade. The 30-minute oscillators are descending, but at the shallow angle that sometimes means they're going to turn right back up again. A sideways trade today would fit with the theory that big-range days tend to be followed by small-range days, but if the OEX should shortcut that process and dip to the 21-pma, that expectation might not be met, as the OEX might then at least follow with a bounce attempt.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  11:09:43 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:56:47 AM
Sector Winners at this hour:

XAL airlines index: +2.65%
HMO healthcare index: +1.61%
OSX oil services: +1.31%
XNG natural gas: +1.13%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +0.95%

Sector Losers:

DRG drug index: -0.86%
XBD broker-dealers: -0.37%

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:54:16 AM
Ouch! Sonus Networks (SONS) is down more than 20% to $5.29 after reporting yesterday that their Q4 earnings report would be delayed after auditors found problems regarding revenue recognition. The stock has seen a handful of downgrades on the news and volume has been extremely high on the drop.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  10:52:34 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 62.73 +2.71% ... sector strength in morning trade after recent test of rising 200-day SMA (57.70).

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) $11.72 +5.3% trading session highs and leading sector gains after announcing a "Spring Fare Sale" Link

Spring breakers in San Franciso can fly round trip to Tampa, FL for $224? What a bargain! Not that far of a drive to Daytona Beach.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:50:22 AM
Brocade Communications (BRCD) is up over 4% this morning after announcing earnings yesterday that beat estimates by a penny. Analyst reaction has been positive. Lehman has reiterated its "over weight" rating. CSFB has upgraded the stock to a "neutral". First Albany has raised BRCD to a "buy".

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:41:30 AM
Yesterday it was Delta (DAL) slashing prices to Hawaii to drum up business. Now Northwest Airlines (NWAC) has slashed fares including some flights to Asia and Europe. Some of its domestic fares start at $39. The stock is enjoying a nice two-week bounce from its low of $10.00 on Feb. 4th. Yesterday NWAC broke above its 200-dma and it's seeing a 4.85% rally today (to $11.67).

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  10:40:48 AM
The put to call ratio has dived to .42 and VXO up to 15.41, +3.56%. This looks like a fakeout with bulls buying the top of the current 30 minute cycle, but we'll find out soon enough. .42 is the lowest p/c reading I've seen in a long time.

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:37:29 AM
Research In Motion (RIMM) is showing no reaction to a downgrade to "peer perform" by Bear Stearns. RIMM has rallied near $10 from Feb. 4th and currently trading at highs not seen since late 2000.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  10:34:36 AM
Maybe the OEX wants to retrace to that mid-channel Keltner support before continuing higher, with that mid-channel support now at 569.47 and rising toward this morning's low? I'm trying to build a scenario that incorporates the bearish-looking formations on the five-minute bar chart with the low TRIN, and that's about the best I can do for now. The two are mixing like oil in water, but I expect something to happen soon to clarify the situation.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  10:34:35 AM
BGO $3.45 +1.47% ... session low/high so far has been $3.41-$3.49.

Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.24 +0.04% ...

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 238.76 +0.03% ...

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  10:30:04 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  James Brown   2/12/200,  10:29:41 AM
Could the bottom be in for Newell Rubbermaid (NWL)? This morning Prudential upgraded the stock from "under weight" to "over weight" on expectations for earning improvement in 2004. The upgraded sparked a gap higher for NWL above six-month resistance at $25.00 and its simple 200-dma. The stock is also in the process of breaking through long-term resistance on its weekly chart...it just doesn't look that convincing yet... Link

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  10:26:20 AM
Still no overnight repos announced. Still standing at a 2.75B net gain on the day.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  10:20:14 AM
The OEX retraced more than a 50% retracement of the fall from yesterday's last five-minute high to this morning's low, showing that the bounce might have been more than a bear-flag climb. However, this early in the day, it's still possible for targets to be overshot a bit in early-morning volatility, and that's what the current downturn suggests. The TRIN sure isn't supporting the idea of a lot of downside, though. Mixed signals, but I'd sure keep an eye on that TRIN.

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  10:16:02 AM
Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate Link

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  10:07:32 AM
The put to call ratio for the first half hour was .55, VXO 15.22 +2.28%.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  10:06:16 AM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $23.45 (unch) Link ... after reporting a quarterly EPS loss of $1.12 versus consensus of $-1.12.

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $3.22 +7.3% ...

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  10:04:10 AM
IPOs Today

ATHR $14.00 - 9 mil shares. Wireless semiconductors
CGTK $16.00 - 6 mil shares. DNA researcher
BRW $20.00 - 6.25 mil shares. Insurance company
ARC $19 - 24.5 mil shares. REIT that sells/rents trailer homes.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  10:02:32 AM
Safeway Stores (SWY) $22.86 +4.91% Link ... higher after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.66 per share, which was 2 cents above consensus.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  10:00:53 AM
So far, the OEX hasn't been able to get much upside traction in this first retracement of the day, but the five-minute oscillators show that there's still possible upside before they turn down again. I'm still watching that 571.60 level, with 571.75 and 572.40-572.50 next resistance over that, as depicted by the Keltner channels.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  10:00:05 AM

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:59:53 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.52 +0.19% ... session high was $45.75, but looks tentative at its rounding lower 50-day SMA of $45.79.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  9:57:43 AM
3 minutes until business inventories, est. .3%.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:54:38 AM
QQQ $37.58 (unch)

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  9:54:17 AM
A 5-day repo of 3B has been announced for a 2.25B net gain so far. Still awaiting the overnight repo announcement.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:52:58 AM
Glaxo Wellcome (GSK) $43.10 -4.54% Link ... lower after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.39 (ex-items, converted from British pounds) not comparable to consensus of $0.65 per share.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  9:48:07 AM
So far this morning, the TRAN is turning down from yesterday's close, which was a close at the 50% retracement of the recent plunge. A sustained move above that 50% retracement would have this retracement looking like something more than a relief bounce. A downturn here would begin to confirm that's all the bounce was. It's too early to draw conclusions about the day's trade, however, but keep a watch on this, as the TRAN often leads its sister index, the Dow.

  Jim Brown   2/12/200,  9:47:48 AM
"We created +366,000 jobs in the last five months" Don Evan, Commerce Secretary on CNBC now. I told everyone on Sunday that the "found" jobs and the reshuffle to move those jobs from last summer into the current time frame would end up as a political statement. Bingo!

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  9:45:51 AM
The extreme short-term overbought conditions being predicted by the Keltner channels at the close yesterday are creating the effect I thought they might create at that time, with an immediate pullback this morning, but the pullback has been minor so far, stopping short of mid-channel support. Now we have to see how the OEX behaves on its first retracement of the day to gauge strength or weakness. First resistance comes at 571.16, but stronger resistance is up near 571.60. That resistance showed up from several levels, including a 50% retracement of the first five-minute range, a 50% retracement of the drop from a late five-minute high yesterday to this morning's low, and from historical and Keltner channel resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:43:25 AM
Aetna (AET) $75.96 +6% Link ... reported quarterly EPS of $1.32 versus consensus of $1.18.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:41:33 AM
Loews (LTR) $58.39 +1.99% Link ... higher open after company reported quarterly EPS of $1.59, which Briefing.com reports as not being comparable to consensus of $1.07.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  9:40:53 AM
During the first five-minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 572.39 to 570.75, with a midpoint at 571.57, and with the OEX currently below that midpoint. This downturn suggests that it will begin a retracement to mid-channel Keltner support, currently at 569.09 but rising, or even to lower Keltner channel support, but we haven't yet seen the first retracement of the day that typically begins in a few minutes, and that might change things. The OEX met the downside target of the minor double-top formation, another factor showing early weakness.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:35:57 AM
Citigroup (C) $49.55 -0.38% Link ...

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:35:25 AM
Sun Communities (SUI) $41.61 -0.23% Link ...

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  9:32:50 AM
12.75B in various repos expires today. The Fed has announced a 12B 14-day repo so far, so there's just 750M left to cover. We await the 10AM announcement regarding the shorter duration repos.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  9:32:45 AM
The double-top formation on the OEX five-minute chart has been confirmed, and has a minor downside target of about 570.60.

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:31:21 AM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.45 +1.47% Link ....

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:28:05 AM
Spot Gold $411.40 is up $1.60 from yesterday's New York close.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  9:27:57 AM
The consensus from readers so far is "yeah right" re: cold weather increasing jobless claims. Here's one from Suzanne:

This does not make sense to me, having grown up in the Southeast and lived there as an adult as well. The only time our factory ever filed temp. claims for workers was during vacation which was July 4th week and Christmas/New Year week if they did not qualify for vacation pay.

We were in the valley between two mountains and schools had to close if we had ice or snow as the buses could not run in such weather. It was rare that we closed the factory for such reasons and expected people to show up for work. We don't have snow equipment in Alabama. The same was true for Georgia. My daughter lived near Charlotte, North Carolina for college and then the Raleigh/Durham area for work for three years. Again, she always made it to work.

I know D. C. has problems with snow and ice as my sister lives on Georgetown Pike outside D.C. and it is rolling, so there are lots of wrecks.

What does all this have to do with filing claims for no job???

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:23:47 AM
Jonathan's 08:53:44 the cold weather probably had the unemployed spending time at shopping malls, or maybe, just maybe, out in the corn fields as waterfowl season nears an end. Cold weather is the waterfowler's best friend.

Why look for a job in cold weather when you can be doing something fun?

  Jeff Bailey   2/12/200,  9:16:46 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jane Fox   2/12/200,  9:15:04 AM
From the And the Beat Goes Column - FleetBoston Financial, the financial firm that started the SEC investigation into trading practices on the floor of the NYSE has said they are prepared to pay between $30 million and $50 million to settle charges that its specialist firm improperly traded ahead of the firm's clients. Five specialist firms have held several meetings with regulators this week to try and come to an agreement with the SEC on settlements before this Sunday, a deadline regulators have set to either have settlements in hand or file civil charges.

In a confidential SEC report in October, regulators alleged that the firms improperly traded ahead of their clients, costing investors at least $155 million over three years. The specialists have denied any wrongdoing.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  9:11:06 AM
The OEX ended the day yesterday on the verge of completing a double-top formation on the five-minute chart, but even if that formation should complete, it's a minor one with a minor downside projection. That downside projection might begin the process by which the OEX retraces to the mid-channel Keltner support, however, with that support now at 569.03 but rising, or to bottom Keltner support, at 565.97 but rising. Strong historical support can be presumed in the 566.40 area, as the OEX fought so long to climb above that level. The 30-minute 100-pma is now at 565.06 but rising, so if the OEX should eventually decline toward the bottom Keltner channel, that historical support and moving average should lend support. Those Keltner channels show that the OEX is reaching extremely overbought conditions on a short-term basis, but we all know that overbought conditions can feed on themselves, and indices can become even more overbought. Those short-term overbought conditions show only a possible vulnerability to that retracement rather than a certainty of that retracement. The 30- and 60-minute charts show a possible upside to 575.50-576 before such a retracement begins, so yesterday ended with the OEX midway between possible short-term upside being indicated and possible short-term downside.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:53:44 AM
"The last two weeks don't necessarily reflect a deterioration in labor market conditions. It's more weather-related," a government official said. Cold weather had been a factor in the Southeast, he said.


I report, you decide...

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:36:13 AM
Retail sales ex-auto .9%.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:34:16 AM
Retail sales -.3%.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:32:56 AM
Initial claims 363K, +6K.

  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:32:08 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   2/12/200,  8:05:27 AM
We await initial claims at 8:30, est. 340K, retail sales (est. flat) and retail sales ex. auto, est. .5%. At 10AM, there's business inventories, est. .3%.

  Linda Piazza   2/12/200,  6:53:03 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei got off to a roaring start, opening just above the 10,450 resistance that had proved troublesome in recent sessions and then climbing above 10,550 to 10,557.01. That was to be the high of the day, however, and the Nikkei closed almost 100 points below that high at 10,459.26, up 93.86 points or 0.91%. The widespread view of Greenspan's testimony as positive, the strong performance of U.S. markets, and positive economic numbers in Japan before the open all helped to gap the Nikkei higher, but many tech stocks saw profit taking before the day ended. The before-the-bell release showed Japan's current-account surplus for December rising 38.5% from the year-ago level and the surplus for 2003 rising 11.6% from the previous year's. Other economic releases during the day included January's wholesale prices index rising 0.1%, the first rise in 41 months. In the afternoon, December's private-sector machinery orders was released, with that number rising 8.1%, a higher-than-expected result.

Honda led early gains, with Toyota and Sony also rising. Toyota was to drop into negative territory by the close, but Sony did close higher. News articles characterized early gains as being broad based, but even early on some exporters suffered the effects of a yen that strengthened against the dollar, and they turned in a weaker performance than some other sectors. At one point, the dollar fell to a low against the yen not seen for more than three years. Resona Holdings was among the most actively traded stocks in early trading, and banks ended up seeing strong gains.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.27%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.18%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.30%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.74%, with the CEO of the territory's biggest bank, HSBC, quoted as worrying that speculators might create a bubble in the real-estate market. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.83%. In a change of posture, China's central bank will review its policy of fixing the yuan's rate to the dollar's, perhaps allowing for more flexibility. In other China-related news, Semiconductor Manufacturing International has filed for an IPO with U.S. regulators.

European bourses all trade higher this morning, although some gains are minor. The weak dollar means that investors must weigh the impact of a strong euro against the impact of today's economic releases. Germany's Q4 GDP rose 0.2% and France's grew 0.5%, showing a slow improvement. January's Western European registrations of new cars fell 1.6%, with Germany's 12.4% and France's 11.9% declines pitted against a rise in registrations in Spain, the U.K., and Italy. Much focus also turned to earnings announcements in Europe, with Unilever and France Telecom climbing after their releases, and Credit Suisse and French bank Societe Generale dropping after theirs. Unilever's chairman announced his retirement plans, with that announcement greeted with some satisfaction by those who felt that the company's restructuring plan had failed under his leadership. The company reported falling 2003 revenues and rising net profits before . . . well, before a whole host of things, including exceptional items and amortization of goodwill and intangibles. At constant exchange rates, sales results would have been different, the company argued, and sales of leading brands would have risen 2.5%. Credit Suisse beat estimates and gave an upbeat prediction of 2004 due to client activity and improving economic conditions. However, net asset inflows dropped, and some analysts question how the company's numbers would have looked with the change to U.S. GAAP, a change that the company will make in Q1 2004 reporting.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has risen 9.40 points or 0.21%, to trade at 4405.40, just above 4400 resistance. The CAC 40 has risen 15.32 points or 0.42%, to trade at 3693.17. The DAX has risen 19.48 points or 0.47%, to trade at 4141.64.

  Jeff Bailey   2/11/200,  11:06:35 PM
Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 10,470 +1.02% Link ... after recently achieving its bearish vertical count of 10,300 and taking a holiday break on Wednesday, the Nikkei-225 gets a bounce with session low/high so far of 10,450.37-10,557.01.

It would currently take a trade at 10,600 to get the $NIKK's point and figure chart back on a buy signal.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng ($HSI) 13,615.85 +0.67% Link session low/high so far has been 13,585.41-13,680.55 so no change to the PnF chart at this point.

  OI Technical Staff   2/11/200,  8:27:01 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives