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  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  8:02:41 PM
Weekly MM trade recap at this Link

At the far right I broke down the difference between trading round 1,000 share lots, or dollar amounts, where example of $10,000 per trade is used.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  7:01:23 PM
Pivot Matrix for Tuesday and next week at this Link

Remember... equity markets are closed on Monday for President's Day.

Will watch the dollar closely on Tuesday and if the Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.55 +0.3% can put together a bid at the DAILY Pivot and correlative MONTHLY S1, gold stocks could likely re-visit their lows.

Sector bellwether Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.26 -0.89% has been finding some resistance at its rounding lower 50-day SMA Link and has rallied back near some overhead supply. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  4:32:02 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Not a great comparison, but here's the closing internals for 02/03/04, where today's (Friday) close provides a benchmark. Link

NH/NL indications pretty darned close, and still show bullish leadership.

Very evident though with QQQ comparison relative to other major indices that large cap tech is the lagging group.

On February 3, 2004, the SOX.X closed 508.53.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  3:55:30 PM
Reader Question re TASR: Question, I know you have been very busy, is there a company rule put in place not to answer readers requests... if so it's ok...believe me I understand, it can become overwhelming with emails..

Response: No, there's certainly no such rule, although we're prohibited by the SEC from giving specific investment advice to individual traders. I always try to answer email as quickly as possible. Yesterday, however, when this reader's request first came through, I was running behind, and my answer did not appear until 4:09. I did answer, however, via the Monitor as the reader requested, and this reader can find my answer, including a graph, in the Monitor archives. Perhaps the reader didn't see it because it was afterhours, but I assumed that the reader had. If you ever believe I've ignored an email, please write me back, because I pride myself in offering this service to readers, as we all do here at OIN.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  3:48:59 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 511.21 -1.45% ... back at WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  3:47:43 PM
Jim let me know that the Treasury Budget's release was yesterday. My source was wrong.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  3:46:27 PM
Now comes decision time, especially for those holding front-month options. Do you expect a move big enough and early enough next week to make up for three days of time premium decay? Earlier in the opex cycle, it's collapsing volatility that will most eat up option premium, but now time premium decay accelerates, and that's what's going to eat up that premium.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  3:34:43 PM
Short of a huge push in the last 30 minutes of trading, KO is not going to achieve that close over Monday's close, a confirmation of the rising three methods bullish formation. Although KO opened higher today, that open was the high of the day. For a long while, we've been seeing bearish formations on daily charts that failed to confirm and now here's a bullish one that failed to do so. I don't want to extrapolate what's happening with KO to the entire market, however, especially since the pullback today was a pullback to support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  3:20:03 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  3:15:33 PM
On the OEX, yet another bear-flag rise broke to the downside. This time, though, we haven't yet seen a new low of the day form afterwards, a change in trend. There's still time, but the OEX is trying to find its footing here. Central Keltner S/R has drifted down to 567.69.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  3:10:49 PM
I think that's all it is, Linda. I don't believe it, myself.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  2:58:04 PM
Day trade stop alert TASR $59.90

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  2:57:50 PM
While the SOX has drifted back below its 50-dma again today, the GSO, the GSTI Software Index, remains above its 50-dma. The daily chart shows the index bouncing from its 10-dma today, but still remaining below its 21- and 30-dma's. The formation still looks as if the GSO might be trying to round down again beneath 160 resistance, but that bounce from the 10-dma gives that conclusion less credence that it would otherwise have. RSI has hooked down, and stochastics have been trying to roll down in mid-up-cycle, trying to make a bearish kiss but not yet completing that bearish kiss.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  2:35:45 PM
So far, this OEX bounce was turned down at the old trendline depicted in my 13:30 post.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  2:24:33 PM
Sector update... we've seen a few sectors turn positive:

Sector winners:
HMO healthcare index: +1.52%
also positive...IUX insurance, DFX defense, BIX and BKX banking indices, GHA hardware.

Sector losers:
DDX disk drives: -3.27%
INX internet index: -1.43%
SOX semiconductors: -1.7%
XAL airlines index: -1.66%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  2:22:53 PM
Day trade long alert .... TASER Intl. (TASR) here $61.25, stop $59.90 target $64.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  2:22:12 PM
The 50% retracement of the move from today's high to today's low lies at 568.24. A bounce that carries much further than that 50% level might be something other than a bear-flag move up into resistance, particularly since mid-channel Keltner S/R is at 568. The picture is complicated by the fact that the current bounce already constitutes a move above the 30-minute 100-pma, a supposed buy signal. Whatever stops you've decided are appropriate for your bearish plays, pay attention to those stops.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  2:21:21 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $60.70 +1.91% ... pickup in volume last 5-minutes. Testing downard trend from Thursday's highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  2:12:07 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  2:02:33 PM
In reference to Keene's 13:57 post on the futures side, not only have I seen daily stochastics reverse themselves, but sometimes they redraw themselves as if they never hinted at any bearish picture. Just joking, they appear to be taunting at times. Stochastics used to be a favorite tool of mine, and they're still on my charts, but I sure view them with some skepticism these days. They've tricked me into some bad, bad trades.

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/13/200,  1:58:09 PM
In a monthly survey of 55 private economists the consensus was that the number of jobs created by established companies is expected to grow by 1.4 million between February and Election Day. That averages out to 155,000 additional payroll jobs a month during the nine months and would correspond with an average level of about 131 million payroll jobs for 2004 as a whole.

This is in contrast to the Economic Report of the President released this week where the White House projected that the level of payrolls would average 132.7 million in 2004. Regardless of which forecast proves more accurate, either would still represent a noticeable improvement in the jobs picture when compared with previous months. During the past 12 months, payrolls have contracted on average by 3,000 a month. Payrolls started turning up in September, but even since then they have cracked the 100,000 mark only once, in January.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  1:56:18 PM
While the TRAN is turning down from the 50% retracement of the recent plunge, it's found support for the last couple of hours at the 38.2% retracement of that plunge, at about 2919.27. About an hour ago, it dipped within a point of the 72-ema, an average that appears to have some resonance on the TRAN's daily chart, but then pulled up a bit. The TRAN's current level also happens to be the location of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 2918.39 and 2920.62, respectively, so there's lots of possible support here, but lots of reason to view the TRAN as weak if it rolls down further. A close here would still confirm the evening-star formation at the top of the bounce, but might then be suspect since it stopped at such possibly strong support.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  1:47:22 PM
Magna Intl Corp (MGA) might be a decent bearish candidate. The stock broke through its 50-dma yesterday as well as the $80.00 level. Today's decline breaks through its rising trendline of rising lows. There is potential support near $76 but the 200-dma may be a bigger magnet near the $75 area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  1:43:49 PM
We're coming up on the first stop-running time of the afternoon, so be careful. I always question whether I should widen stops a bit during this time of day, but it's been dangerous practice until now to widen them to the upside when you're in a bearish trade. Decide what's comfortable for you before the push comes, if it does.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  1:30:20 PM
Here's an old OEX ascending trendline from 1/29 that appears to have been playing a part in trading since it began forming, except for 2/4-2/6: Link It crosses now just over 567, so should provide some resistance if the OEX should rise that high. So far, the OEX continues to rise in bear flags that break to the downside, so bearish traders should continue to do what I've advised doing all day: follow the OEX down with your stops.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  1:25:09 PM
Plot thickens ... this is something I was discussing with my father on the phone last night.

Some talk surfacing that Disney (DIS) might turn the tables and make counter offer to buy Comcast (CMCSA).

I can't remember the what two companies in recent history saw similar events unfold.

This type of strategy would only come should Disney really not want to be acquired, and a tactic that could be used to get Comcast to up its offer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  1:19:18 PM
KO has a long way to go to confirm the rising three methods bullish candlestick formation by closing above Monday's close. Earlier today, I said that it would have to close above Monday's close, and listed that close at $51.10. That was wrong. The close was $52.40. A failure to confirm a potentially bullish formation, if that should happen, would show that there's more weakness than there appeared to be. With that said, today's drop brings KO back to a descending trendline from the weekly chart, one that it had popped above on Monday. I used to follow KO more closely than I do now, and I used to notice a pattern in which KO would be showing a bearish pattern that portended a breakdown, but then it would suddenly ramp up into opex week, only to turn around again after options expired and fulfill the bearishness that had been indicated. I'm wondering if the opposite could be true this opex cycle? This is just pure speculation, but for cycle after cycle, I noticed strange things happened around opex in conjunction with KO's trading pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  1:05:27 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:51:11 PM
Fisher Scientific (FSH) has risen more than 40% from its January lows near $39. Driving the stock higher yesterday was news of FSH announcing an acquisition of privately held Oxoid Group and a profit warning as FSH guides higher for 2004. In spite of the stock's rapid advance JPM upgraded shares to a "buy", Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a "buy" and BAC reiterated their "buy" rating.

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/13/200,  12:50:39 PM
In the latest issue of Active Traders Magazine there is an article by Victor Niederfoffer on volatility. He counted the number of daily changes greater than 2% in S&P 500 for the last 20 years. From 1984 to 1996, with the exceptions of 1987 and 1988, the norm for 2% or greater daily changes was zero to 16. Then from 1997 to 2002 the norm was from 20 to 58. 2003 returned to the pre 1997 level of only 15 2% or greater daily moves. He asks the question have we returned to the pre 1997 low volatility or was 2003 just an anomaly in the post 1997 high volatility market. Unfortunately he was not able to come to any conclusions but did say the "usual ideas (on volatility) contained in the textbooks are either wrong or misleading...we are heavy-hearted about the likely rocky journey in store for stocks in 2004."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:44:05 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.42 +0.15% ... DAILY R2

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  12:41:10 PM
The OEX dipped below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, but has now scrambled back up to the 130-pma. A rollover beneath that MA would be another sell signal to add to this morning's downside break out of the inside-day range, but this remains a strong possible bounce point, too. If the OEX should bounce, it will now face that trendline from the 2/05 low from the underside, however, with that trendline now at about 570.40. Central Keltner support/resistance has dived down to 568.88. As with upside tests of the Keltner channels, the longer the lower support is tested, the more likely it is that the OEX will have added momentum when it's catapulted back up. The longer it hugs bottom support, the more likely it is that it will move back to top resistance rather than just mid-channel resistance. So far, though, bearish plays continue to work as they should, so that bearish players should just remain watchful of their stops.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:39:36 PM
Yesterday morning May Dept. Stores (MAY) reported earnings that beat the street by 5 cents on better than expected revenues. Shares didn't do much on Thursday given its strong pre-earnings run up (and the general market weakness yesterday). Today the stock gapped higher on an upgrade to "over weight" from Prudential but shares are quickly fading. Friday's candlestick looks like a bearish engulfing pattern, which suggests a potential reversal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:39:32 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,144.78 -0.63% ... here's intra-day chart of SPX showing today's trade at MONTHLY R1, then action around WEEKLY R1. Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:34:25 PM
Hmm.. shares of Barr Pharmaceuticals (BRL), previously Barr Labs, is not seeing any buying interest after announcing a 3-for-2 stock split this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:32:28 PM
Seeing alternating buy/sell program premium alerts in last 20-minutes.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:28:25 PM
As we noted last night in the newsletter shares of PD are indeed seeing some profit taking today. Creating a tailwind for the sellers is a new downgrade to "market perform".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:26:27 PM
Sears (S) $45.91 -1.39% Link .... here's quick look at a Sears 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY pivot retracement overlaid. Link

Was looking for an action point after PnF chart bounce.

60-minute chart gives impression that S may at least try and backfill that gap, after a major gap lower in late January.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:24:03 PM
Another insurance stock being upgraded today is Aetna (AET). The company reported earnings yesterday that beat the street by 14 cents and produced a gap higher to a new all-time high for the stock. The rally continues today (+3.35%) after Smith Barney raises AET from a "sell" to a "hold" and Prudential raises AET to a "neutral weight".

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:20:54 PM
Pacificare Health Systems (PHS) is up 12.76% after reporting earnings this morning that beat the street by 2 cents. More importantly PHS has offered a bullish outlook for the future. The medicare health provider now expects net income to rise 25% in 2005, up from 15% growth. Smith Barney has upgraded the stock from a "sell" to a "hold" on the news.

Today's rally has broken through resistance at $35.00 and shares are trading at 3 1/2 year highs. Volume today is six times the norm.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:16:19 PM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) is down more than 4.8% in response to the company selling $250 million in convertible notes. Or the note sale could just be an excuse to take profits after its 20% rally from its early February low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:14:51 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX = 1,146.33

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  12:14:15 PM
That run-of-the-mill bear flag I mentioned in my 11:47 post did break to the downside, as would be expected in a bear flag, and the OEX did reach a new low of the day, as also would be expected. So far, bearish short-term formations are working today, so those in bearish positions should just be very watchful of their stops. The OEX is headed up again, and should not now see a new five-minute high, with the last one at 567.92. The OEX sometimes overruns upside targets a bit, though. Mid-channel resistance is now at 569.15, and is descending. Oops. The OEX turned around again while I was typing, and is not now "headed up."

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/13/200,  12:13:24 PM
Senate Office Building evacuated - update - two senate office buildings were evacuated after a fire alarm was triggered.

 
 
  James Brown   2/13/200,  12:11:57 PM
The ONLY sector in the green this hour is the HMO healthcare index, currently up 1.12%

Those sectors suffering the most today are:
DDX disk drives: -3.39%
INX Internets: -1.48%
SOX semiconductors: -1.86%
XAL airlines index: -1.56%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  12:05:36 PM
Swing trade short alert ... Sears (S) $46.11 here, stop $46.91, target $44.75 (MONTHLY Pivot at $44.72).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  11:54:26 AM
The SOX did violate its lower Keltner channel support this morning, at least as I've got the channels configured. It also fell below its 50-dma. It's rising now, but facing strong Keltner resistance up to 512.71. Eventually, it should work its way back to central resistance, which is now at 519.21 but dropping fast. It's dropped almost three points since this morning's open, so I'm wondering if the SOX might not test that central resistance at about the same time it's retesting the 50-dma, and if those levels won't line up in congruence. Daily oscillators suggest that the SOX may be rolling down to retest its 100-dma, one of the averages Jim watches closely, so the presumption would be that the SOX would zig and zag its way down toward that average. We all know that oscillator action hasn't been particularly predictive of downside action lately, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  11:47:52 AM
So far, the OEX's climb looks like a run-of-the-mill bear flag climb into resistance, but is there really any such animal these days? I'm highly distrustful of anything with the word "bear" attached to it, but that's what it looks like now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  11:30:20 AM
The OEX is laboriously climbing, but expending much of its energy (at least as depicted by five-minute 5(3)3 stochastics) in making even this minimal climb. However, we have to see what happens as those stochastics cycle down and how much downside damage gets done as that happens. (That process began as I typed.)

One note: the OEX hit the 30-minute 100-pma this morning, as well as hitting the rising trendline off the 02/05 low. If the OEX should fall below that trendline, that MA, and the 130-pma as well, at 565.82, then its weakness is confirmed. I would expect at least a minimal bounce attempt, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  11:28:16 AM
Citigroup (C) $49.60 +0.18% ... I was swing trade stopped alert at $49.35, when stock fell to session low of $49.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  11:25:21 AM
Day trade target alert ... Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  11:15:57 AM
Day trade short alert ... Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.64 here, stop $44.85, target $44.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  11:10:28 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  11:08:03 AM
The OEX may bounce here. Keltner channels line up resistance now at 567.90 or so, at 568.85, and from 569.44-569.69, where central Keltner resistance lies. Bears should worry if the OEX is successful in climbing much above that central resistance. A 50% retracement of the flagpole drop is at 570.03 or so, and the OEX shouldn't retrace much higher than that if any climb should be a bearish climb into resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  11:04:11 AM
Spot Gold $410.10 -0.72% ..

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  11:03:19 AM
As Jonathan noted, the TRAN did turn down below 2950. The 50% retracement of the recent plunge is at 2951.88, and the TRAN actually pierced that level yesterday when it completed that doji. If the TRAN were to close today at its current level, it would have also confirmed an evening-star formation at resistance. That would be ominous, since the TRAN was unsuccessful in retracing more than 50% of the recent plunge, so that the bounce over the last few days can probably be viewed as nothing more than an expected relief bounce. The day is far from over, however, but this has implications for more than transportation-related stocks since the TRAN figures so heavily in Dow theory.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:59:45 AM
OEX Keltner channel support has not yet been violated, although it was touched. Twice The Keltner channel bottom support now turns down, and measures 566.38. Again, this touch shows vulnerability to a bounce, but isn't a prediction of a bounce. When the OEX hits upper Keltner channel resistance, I warn those in bullish positions to protect profits by following the OEX up with stops, but note that Keltner channels can give valid breakout signals, so it's not necessarily a time to sell. The same is true of those in bearish plays as lower Keltner support is hit. Protect profits by following the OEX down with stops that are appropriate to your trading style, but it's not necessarily a time to exit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:52:52 AM
Swing trade raise stop alert .... Citigroup $49.51 (unch).. raising stop to $49.35 from $48.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:51:11 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,148.30 -0.33% ... session low so far has been 1,146.60. Just under WEEKLY R1 of 1,148.89 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:49:47 AM
The OEX has now reached bottom Keltner support. Although it can pierce that support and violate it for several hours, it usually eventually works its way back toward central S/R, now just under 570, but descending.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:47:46 AM
SOX.x 510.87 -1.46% ... trades weekly pivot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:46:26 AM
According to inside-day theory, the OEX has given a sell signal, based on a trade below yesterday's low. As I said earlier, I haven't found this technique to be foolproof enough for my liking, as there are just too many fakeout moves. The OEX is approaching 566-567 possible support. As long as it stays below the central Keltner support/resistance, I see it as an index showing weakness and one working its way down, but it's headed down into a congestion zone that should provide multiple possible bounce points.

With that said, the OEX downturn yesterday and today present the possibility of a double-top in the making on that daily chart. Those investing in that possibility should keep in mind that we have a three-day weekend ahead of us with next week being opex week. Front-month options are going to decrease mightily in value over the weekend, so you'd sure better be expecting a big move if you're looking into front-month puts and you better be pretty confident of direction. Trading the OEX has been terribly difficult lately, and just when a little downturn gets going, the OEX turns around, volatility collapses, and so does the price of any options. I haven't been suggesting OEX plays because I don't think the OEX is the best vehicle to trade these days.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:42:41 AM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 234.40 -0.41% ... session lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:38:48 AM
There goes the Dow. It's not testing that 60-minute 21-pma any longer. It's below it. The Dow could still bounce strongly and leave only a shadow below that MA, but it better do it soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:37:05 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 514.00 -1.04%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:36:59 AM
The Dow slips just below the 60-minute 21-pma, a bounce point earlier in the week. That MA is at 10,684.05, and the Dow is still close enough that we can consider it testing the average, but only if it pulls itself up by its bootstraps pretty soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:36:34 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... SPX 1,150.82

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:32:40 AM
As this morning's trade opened, the OEX showed an equal possibility that it would bounce from the rising trendline off the 2/5 low, then finding resistance at 570-571, or fall toward 566-567. The OEX did bounce, and even exceeded the nearest upside resistance. Will it now work its way down toward bottom Keltner support, as it had been headed down to do yesterday afternoon? Maybe. Those two possibilities looked as if they were weighted equally as the market opened, and perhaps that's because they were both going to be fulfilled.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:25:27 AM
Yesterday afternoon, I mentioned that KO's daily chart showed a potential rising-three-methods bullish pattern. To confirm that pattern, KO would need to close today over Monday's close of $51.10. As I type, KO is at $51.46, declining from the day's high of $51.98. However, when I discussed KO's pattern, I was discussing an interesting candlestick pattern that readers might follow to see how it plays out. For those interested in a KO play, it might be better to follow James' comments, as he's been following the stock longer than I have been. I note some horizontal historical resistance that appears rather strong at $53-53.50, but that's balanced by the possibility that KO has just bumped above one version of a long-term descending trendline from the weekly chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:24:28 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:23:31 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:17:45 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 517.83 -0.18% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:11:49 AM
Keltner resistance caught the OEX, but support is building, too, first at 570.76, and then more strongly from 570.03-570.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:10:00 AM
Citigroup (C) $49.93 +0.84% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:09:28 AM
Sun Communities (SUI) $41.61 +0.19% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:07:29 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.36 +1.56% ... off session high of $45.52. Still a little tentative at that rounding lower 50-day SMA of $45.68.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  10:04:43 AM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $13.31 +0.98% Link ... challenged yesterday's high of $13.50 early with trade at $13.48. Pretty good 5-minute bar from $13.25-$13.39.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  10:03:41 AM
For those who follow the inside-day technique (I'm not a big believer myself, as I've seen too many fake-outs), there has not yet been either an upside or downside breakout of yesterday's range on the OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:58:22 AM
Applebee's Intl. (APPB) $38.18 +0.76% Link ... Upgraded by Avondale Partners to "market outperform" from "market perform" and raising price target from $40 to $46.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  9:56:42 AM
The OEX is so far bouncing once again from the rising trendline off its 2/5 low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:54:31 AM
Schlumberger (SLB) $63.34 -1% Link .... Deutsche Securities downgrades to "buy" from "hold"

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 104.97 -1.27% Link is only sector I show down more than 1% in early morning trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  9:53:32 AM
Looks like Easy Al got spooked again this AM, just announced an 8.5B 5-day repo, net add in that amount.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  9:52:37 AM
The TRAN came within a point of its 21-dma today, but now turns down. It's still hanging up near that 50% retracement of the recent plunge, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:51:26 AM
S1 Corp. (SONE) $8.09 -6.04% Link ... Cursory look at financials look good, where full year 2004 guidance given has ranges moving up from prior guidance. Here's a rather detailed release of earnings and guidance ranges. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  9:50:19 AM
The OEX has come back to test that rising trendline off the 2/05 low.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/13/200,  9:48:54 AM
Michigan Consumer Sentiment = 93.1 , estimate was 103.0 to 104.9

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  9:46:48 AM
The OEX five-minute nested Keltner channels are in an equilibrium position, ready to break out one direction or another. The OEX is jammed up against next Keltner resistance, with next resistance at 571.16 and then at 572.62.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  9:45:10 AM
The Fed has no expiries today, and any repos announced at 10AM will constitute net additions to liquidity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:41:07 AM
Comcast (CMCSA) $29.86 -0.66% Link ... moves below yesterday's low with investors feeling the company is going to have to up its bid for Disney (DIS) Link if the deal is going to get done.

Should Comcast (CMCSA) pull their offer the stock rises, but for now, I would have to expect stock remains under pressure.

Investors long the underlying stock of CMCSA might look to buy protective puts and April $30 (CCQPF) bid/ask $1.35 x $1.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:37:49 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.88 -0.48% ... setting new multi-year lows.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 239.21 +1.63% leads broad list of sector gainers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  9:36:44 AM
During the first five minutes of trade, the OEX ranged from 569.61 to 570.87, with a midpoint at 570.24, and with the OEX currently above that midpoint, showing strength in earliest trading. The OEX ended yesterday at the ascending trendline from the 2/05 low, and so this bounce constitutes a bounce from that trendline, but it's headed right into resistance, too, and it's doing it as we near the time of the release of the Michigan number at 9:45. It looks as if the OEX is doing its thing, heading into resistance just before an important economic release. Sometimes, lately, though the movement that will prevail the rest of the day is well underway before an important number is released.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:35:49 AM
Orbital Sciences (ORB) $13.09 -2.53% Link ... Jefferies & Company downgrading to "hold" from "buy"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:33:23 AM
Dell (DELL) $34.87 +3.81% Link ... Raymond James upgraded from "outperform" to "strong buy"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:31:05 AM
Analog Devices (ADI) $51.36 +4.83% Link ... upgraded by Merrill Lynch from "neutral" to "buy"

Deutsche Securities upgrades from "sell" to "hold"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:28:38 AM
Scana Corp. (SGC) $34.62 Link ... reported quarterly EPS of $0.63 (ex-items), which was 2-cents better than consensus estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:26:57 AM
JM Smuckers $47.12 Link ... higher at $48.00 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.65 (ex-items), which was 3 cents better than consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:25:09 AM
Barrick Gold (ABX) $20.83 Link ... indicated higher at $21.40 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.07 (ex-items), which was a penny below consensus estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/13/200,  9:15:31 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/13/200,  9:05:53 AM
The U.S., the European Union and other trading partners have urged China to let the yuan float against the US dollar, contending that the currency is undervalued and fueling a predatory export boom. But pressures building within China's hard-charging economy are driving Beijing to re-examine the Chinese currency's tether to the U.S. dollar, with a loosening looking more and more like a matter of when, not if.

Cash and private deposits surged 20% last year, twice the rate of the economy and inflation has picked up. Some economists think Chinese monetary authorities are losing control of the economy.

The Chinese government may be signaling that the current situation may be untenable and that it is weighing its options.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  8:52:32 AM
Yesterday, the OEX printed an inside-day candle, and aficionados of the inside-day trading technique now will watch for a move above yesterday's high as a buy signal and a move below yesterday's low as a sell signal. Any climbs will be climbs occurring in the face of the congestion zone that begins near yesterday's high and extends up to 600. Tough going. Any declines will soon face the support established last week and this week, as well as a host of moving averages cycling up toward the current price. Tough going there, too. Several intraday charts and studies employed on those charts suggest that the OEX could steady at the current level (ascending trendline off the 2/5 low, 60-minute 18/21-pma's, etc.) but face strong resistance between 570-571, and some suggest a decline down toward 566.30-567.20 (30-minute 100-pma and lower Keltner channel support). Sounds like the perfect recipe for another range-bound day, but perhaps the preliminary Michigan Sentiment number, due out 15 minutes after the open, will shake the OEX and other indices out of their stagnation.

I'm still watching the TRAN, with that index ending the day with a doji at resistance, the 50% retracement of the recent plunge. That doji formed at the top of that retracement, so at the top of a steep climb, and that could be a potential reversal signal or could be merely a sign of natural hesitation at a key retracement level. Until the TRAN can make a convincing push above the 50% retracement, however, we can't consider the bounce fully a bullish move, but rather a technical or relief bounce. It seems unlikely that the TRAN and Dow can continue to look so different, or at least Dow theory views such divergence as bearish if it continues. However, 2003 undid many truisms about technical analysis: why can't 2004 undo Dow theory?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:50:51 AM
We can watch the selloff in the dollar take hold on the delayed US Dollar Index chart at this Link . Use F5 to refresh it. Currently, euros, swiss franc and Canuck buck futures are all up between .44% and .66%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:37:02 AM
Export prices ex-ag .7%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:35:38 AM
U.S. import prices ex-petroleum largest increase since March

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:35:26 AM
Import prices ex-oil +.7%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:32:01 AM
8:30am U.S. DEC. TRADE GAP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $39.6 BLN

8:30am U.S. JAN. EU IMPORT PRICES UP 1.5%, MATCHING RECORD

US BoT deficit 42.5B

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/13/200,  8:10:09 AM
We await the Dec balance of trades data at 8:30, est -40B, export prices ex-agriculture, prior .2% (no estimates), import prices ex-oil, prior .1% (no estimates), and the preliminary Michigan sentiment at 9:45, est 103.3.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/13/200,  7:28:01 AM
Good morning. As many computer makers traded lower after Dell's report, the Nikkei opened in the red, but soon climbed. It continued climbing throughout the day, ending higher by 98.43 points or 0.94%, at 10,557.69. Today's close was near the 10,557 level that was yesterday's high of the day, from which the Nikkei then fell 100 points into yesterday's close. Next week, Japan releases GDP numbers, and it's not clear whether the Nikkei ended at resistance ahead of that number next week or would have climbed strongly above yesterday's resistance if the day had just been longer. The GDP numbers are expected to be good, but February is a month noted for profit-taking by banks shedding some of their holdings.

Sony, NEC, and Toshiba were among the stocks trading lower during the morning session, and many tech-related stocks ended lower, too, with many succumbing to profit taking. By the end of the day, however, NEC and Toshiba had erased their losses. Canon and Tokyo Electron also bucked that trend of profit-taking among techs, ending higher. Softbank was an early leader after the company reported an operating loss that narrowed for the third quarter in a row, with that narrowed loss the result of increased subscribers and lower marketing costs. It closed almost 10% higher. NTT DoCoMo rose in early trading after a media report that the company would not buy AT&T Wireless, but perhaps that gain was also due to a Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association report that 2003's mobile phone shipments climbed 27.4% from the previous year. NTT DoCoMo's rival, KDDI, posted even stronger gains. Market watchers noted that consumer cyclical stocks performed well, with retailers climbing. Several steel stocks rose, too. Many automakers turned in mixed performances in early trading throughout Asia, and Honda was one of the decliners. Honda closed lower, as did Nissan, but Toyota rose a strong 2.6%.

Most other Asian bourses closed higher. Although some had opined that Morgan Stanley might change Taiwan's and South Korea's weightings to developed market status in its global index funds, the company instead left ratings alone, but both countries' bourses traded higher despite that disappointment. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.74% and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.48%. Some South Korean exporters such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai fell in early trading, with Hyundai due to report earnings at midday. The company reported record net profits, meeting expectations. The company's stock closed down 1.7%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, up 0.06%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.84%, but China's Shanghai Composite was the lone Asian bourse closing lower, with a decline of 0.32%.

A headline on CNBC Europe this morning read "Weaker Retail Sales and Higher Jobless Rate Give Us a Pause for Breath," referring to yesterday's U.S. economic releases, but so far, not many bourses pause for breath with Asian bourses closing higher and U.S. futures trading higher at the time this report was written. The Ifo Institute released its business climate index for January in a new pan-German format, rather than the previous separate numbers for East and West Germany, with that pan-German number at 97.5. Steel and telecommunications stocks had posted gains in Japan, and were performing well in Europe, too. Germany's ThyssenKrupp beat earnings forecasts, showing a rise in orders of 6% although sales were flat or improved by 4% without currency effects. The company also slightly raised its 2004 pre-tax earnings estimate, caging the statement with lots of conditions. French tire maker Michelin was gaining in early trading despite reporting 2003 net sales that dropped but would have climbed if the company hadn't acquired Viborg and if currency rates had remained constant. That last "if" statement is one that's been reiterated by lots of European companies in this quarter's reports. The company also reiterated its previous statement that higher material costs may drive operating margins lower. That doesn't seem a strong endorsement, but volumes did improve 3.3% from the year-ago levels, and perhaps some expected a worse report, accounting for the company's gain in early trading. Rhodia, a French specialty chemicals group, reported a 1.35 billion euro loss, but soared after it also reported its plans to restructure, selling off 700 million euros in assets by the end of this year and returning to profitability by 2006.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 44.90 points or 1.03%, to 4422.60, not pausing for breath at all. The CAC 40 and DAX have paused, however. The CAC 40 is flat, up 1.97 points or 0.05%, to 3683.53. The DAX is also flat, down 2.55 points or 0.06%, to 4119.10.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/12/200,  10:11:29 PM
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