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  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  6:32:29 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  4:47:24 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

The 10-year YIELD fell 4.8 basis points, not 0.48%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:59:07 PM
General Electric (GE) $33.41 +2.17% .... Named three new officers today, and may be reason for GE's sudden bucking of broader market negativity. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:58:17 PM
Friday, the OEX bounced and closed back above the ascending line off the 1/13 low and back above the 30-dma, and it's trying to do the same thing today, with the 30-dma at 564.26 and the OEX currently at 564.44. The OEX is printing a doji while doing so, but while it's a doji after several days of declines, those declines have taken place mostly inside a consolidation zone. I'm not sure I'd consider this doji particularly indicative of a possible reversal signal, although I do think the OEX might be due for a bounce. Perhaps I'm not making sense, but "bounce" to me means something different than trend reversal. I'm really not sure what the trend is yet, and won't consider a downward trend firmly established in the OEX until and unless it confirms its double-top by trading below 557.36.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:55:23 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.34 -0.93% ... challenging Friday's lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:51:27 PM
The SOX double-bottom on the five-minute chart (see my 15:36 post) has now been confirmed, with a predicted upside near 498.50-498.75, bringing the SOX up to test closest resistance. A failure to meet that upside target would confirm weakness, although it's not necessary that the SOX meet it today, of course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:48:47 PM
Today's low on the SOX also presents the possibility of a double-bottom formation on its daily chart, but that would require a move back above 535.55 for confirmation. So far, both RSI and 21(3)3 stochastics are not as low as they were at the time that early February low was being made, so if the SOX should bounce strongly from here, turning those oscillators back up again, that would show bullish divergence. I would have expected at least a reflexive bounce, however, and we are at least getting that, although not a big one.

The weekly chart doesn't support the idea of a big move up, at least not yet. Weekly RSI and 21(3)3 stochastics are in full bearish mode, and weekly MACD has just begun to show negative histogram values over the last couple of weeks. The weekly chart shows the importance of the 486-490 area, with the 200-week moving average currently at 472.33 having been both resistance and support since last August. So, although the possibility of a double-bottom exists on the daily chart, that double-bottom does not as yet look as if it has a high probability of being confirmed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:36:03 PM
A SOX move above 494.84 will complete a double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart, with an upside target of such a formation at about 498.50-498.75. There was bullish divergence as the two equal bottoms were put in place, although the bullish divergence was slight and is not being followed through on with the current action. A confirmation of this pattern would be first sign of returning strength, and a fulfillment of the upside target would be another, but that will just bring the SOX back up to test resistance at the 1:10 high this afternoon. By the time that level was touched, central Keltner channel resistance might have descended to that level, with that resistance now at 501.57 but still declining fairly quickly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:29:26 PM
I barely completed that 15:07 post when the OEX began climbing, pulling out of the redrawn descending regression channel on the five-minute chart. I had redrawn it, or let Q-charts do that, to encompass the earlier swing higher. As happened with that previous attempt to break out of the first regression channel on that chart, the OEX didn't get far before turning around and falling back to test the top channel line to see if it would hold as support. That test isn't yet completed, with that channel support at 563. As I type, the OEX begins a bounce, but the five-minute oscillators curve down, with next Keltner support currently at the current OEX level and then at about 562.62.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:25:54 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:19:21 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  3:07:33 PM
I just went back to check my first entry about what I expected the OEX to do today, based on Friday's close and the futures this morning. I had expected a bounce, but thought that the bounce might get stopped near 567 or 569, if it got past 567. It never even got up to 567 (at least so far), trading a high of 566.13.

Now what? The OEX is at the 563-563.50 top of the congestion zone from late January-early February, so declines should slow here. I expect a choppy path from here to 557.36, the confirmation level of the double-top, if the OEX should ever get that low. The current OEX level, all the way down through that congestion zone, is one from which a bounce might be expected at any time, but I would now expect such a bounce to encounter resistance between 569.40-570.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:06:31 PM
Day trade stop alert ... QQQ $36.33

"unbelievable" in my opinion that bulls didn't let go to at least $36.00 or new session low as COMPX made new session low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  3:00:48 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,000.89 -1.81% ... just off session low of 1,999.59.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:52:51 PM
Day trade short alert .... QQQ $36.22, stop $36.33, target $35.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  2:52:49 PM
Today the SOX dipped below the early February low. It's been following the lower Keltner channel support, trading on a breakout signal all day. Although I've seen the OEX trade on a breakout signal for a couple of days, it's unusual for an index to do so for too long, and so those in bearish semi-related plays should be following those stocks down with their stops. The SOX should rise at some point to retest central Keltner channel resistance, now just below 503 but descending.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:48:30 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 353.39 +0.01% have been relatively unchanged all session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:46:32 PM
QQQ .... bouncing around between WEEKLY S1 $36.31 and DAILY S2 $36.26. I'm thinking NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) destined to at least see a test of 2,000 (currently 2,004.06), which I thought should have QQQ seeing quick dip lower to $36.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:41:09 PM
General Electric (GE) $33.10 +1.22% ... highs of the session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:38:51 PM
Swing trade lower bearish stop alert .... Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.53 -0.49% ... lower swing trade bearish stop to $42.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  2:35:39 PM
Average true range for the TRAN is 36.69 points. Today, the TRAN has spanned a range of 43.62 points, all to the downside. It has moved below the midpoint of the tall white candle from 2/06, another bearish sign. It has retraced more than 61.8% of the bounce since early February, another bearish sign and one that suggests that it may retrace all of that bounce, again testing the 2800 level. I'm not expecting that to happen today, however, or maybe not in a straight-down decline, either. In fact, the TRAN approaches possible support from 2840-2850.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:35:21 PM
Day trade stop alert ... QQQ $36.31.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:23:19 PM
Day trade short alert .... QQQ here $36.22, stop $36.31, target $36.02.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  2:15:51 PM
The p/c ratio has risen all of .2 to .60 after printing 2.5 hours' worth of .58 readings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  2:13:45 PM
The OEX dipped below Friday's low. Remember that 561.23 is the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline, although 559.50 proved more important in daily trading as these levels were being crossed. The OEX weekly chart shows an index that has been consolidating sideways since breaking above that retracement, so on the weekly chart, at least, this decline doesn't look too bad. A decline below 557 (actually 557.36) would confirm the double-top formation on the OEX, but I think we should see a bounce attempt either at or shortly after that level before the OEX gives up and falls through, if it ever does.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  2:04:47 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  2:01:49 PM
James' comment about the networkers prompted me to take another look at CSCO. Since my earlier post, it's fallen further, so the Keltner channel behavior wasn't predictive of a bounce to $23-23.70 after all, at least not immediately. CSCO didn't get any higher than $22.86 on that push. Mid-channel Keltner resistance has been drifting lower, so that when CSCO does decide to test that resistance, it needs to rise to only $23.07 at this time.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  1:51:58 PM
After skating down the descending top trendline of the regression channel on the five-minute chart for a while, the OEX fell back inside that channel, but now is trying to climb out again. On the 60-minute chart, the OEX still hugs the descending regression channel with the 60-minute MACD lines not yet drawing any closer together in any kind of incipient bullish move, but the 30-minute MACD is attempting to curve upward, not entirely successfully yet. I have the feeling that the OEX is being driven down toward an equal (with Friday's) low but that it's trying to bounce ahead of that equal low. Be careful, as we're in the stop-running time of day.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  1:45:56 PM
The recent three-day drop in the NWX networking index has broken support at its 50-dma today.

Contributing to the move is a steady decline in shares of CSCO, JNPR and FDRY. JNPR is about to fill the gap from its January earnings report while also approaching its 50-dma. Meanwhile FDRY is currently trading under its 200-dma with today's 2.84% drop.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  1:41:34 PM
The XAU gold & silver index's MACD indicator is about to produce a fresh sell signal after the group has dropped four days in a row.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  1:29:43 PM
While I was gone, the OEX broke out of the descending regression channel on its five-minute chart, came back to retest the resistance-turned-support, and is in that process now. If Keltner support near 563.40 should firm and the OEX hold there, it's possible that the OEX can extend the bounce, but that's still in question as of yet. The OEX is still hugging the bottom support of the longer-term descending regression channel on its 60-minute chart. The 60-minute MACD shows no sign of turning up again, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  1:24:37 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  1:14:28 PM
Another bearish candidate is McKesson Corp (MCK). The stock is breaking down through support at $27.00 despite news this morning of a new $30 million multi-year contract for one of its three business segments.

Noteworthy is the lack of volume on today's bearish breakdown but the move also contributes to its bearish P&F chart, which is currently pointing to a $21 price target. The weekly chart for MCK suggests possible support near $22.75.

 
 
  Jane Fox   2/23/200,  1:12:50 PM
Are American homeowners are making the most cost-effective choice in their preference for fixed-rate long-term mortgages? Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan thinks maybe not. In a speech to the Credit Union National Association Greenspan said "American homeowners clearly like the certainty of fixed mortgage payments but homeowners pay several thousands of dollars a year for those benefits."

Mr. Greenspan said homeowners might pay 0.5 to 1.2 percentage points more than they otherwise would for the benefits of long-term mortgages and estimates homeowners "might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade," Mr. Greenspan said, though not if interest rates had trended "sharply upward."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  1:09:56 PM
That sell program premium alert has seen an opposite reaction, as the major indices have seen a lift.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  1:06:50 PM
Another .58 put to call reading, the 4th in a row.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  1:05:05 PM
Electronic Data Systems (EDS) may be a bearish play candidate. The stock is down 2.64% to $19.49, breaking support at $20.00 and painting a new bearish sell signal on its P&F chart.

Driving the move today is a downgrade from Deutsche to a "sell". Bears willing to chase the breakdown will note that the P&F chart's price objective is currently $13.00. The weekly chart suggest possible support at $15.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  1:04:33 PM
OSTK /AMZN ... as OSTK breaks to all-time highs, AMZN breaking down. Just a note that AMZN's public float range has been $42.83-$57.82, so bulls starting to get underwater.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  1:02:33 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:58:40 PM
A couple of upgrades this morning have sent TXU Corp (TXU), an electric utility co, to new one year highs. Shares are up 11.35% to $27.65 on very strong volume. TXU currently yields 2.01%/year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:57:56 PM
I have to be away from the Monitor for about 15-30 minutes.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:55:44 PM
Sector update...

Sector Winners:
OIX oil index: +0.60%
UTY utilities: +0.35%
Biotechs, banks and insurance are also slightly positive.

Sector Losers:
SOX semiconductors: -2.50%
INX Internet index: -2.60%
DDX disk drives: -2.64%
GHA hardware: -2.13%
NWX networking: -2.09%
GSO software: -1.94%

DFI defense index: -1.95%
XAL airlines index: -1.90%

XBD broker-dealers: -1.09%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:55:21 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $54.91 -3.58% ... discuss this stock in this weekend's Ask the Analyst column. It has once again turned its public float in today's trade. Float currently owned between $57.83-$53.63 (or today's range) on average.

Some backtesting of the QCharts Float Turnover Channel (found under studies) shows stock has been good swing trade long after 4 or 5 days of consolidation between the Float Turnover Channel. Where more than likely, the sideways trade allowed for further shorting, where break to the upside saw extended short-cover rally.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:50:02 PM
NH/NL 5 and 10-day ratios ... Friday's trade had both the NYSE and NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratios falling below their respective 10-day ratios.

This suggests that bullish leadership on a short-term basis is faltering.

The pattern that seems to be showing up on a shorter-term basis is anything the 5-day's get close to 99% (can only go to 100%) then the pullback from a rally is found.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:47:25 PM
Per Keen's 12:20:05 ... NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,013.63 -1.19% session low so far has been 2,008.69. Just above that 2,000.00 level, which when broken to the upside, on January 6, 2004, sprinted to its recent highs of 2,153.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:44:11 PM
Randgold (GOLD) $20.28 -6.11% ... I won't profile trades in this name anymore as some didn't like the thin trade. Still monitoring this weaker gold stock as it now looks to challenge the 02/02/04 lows of $20.11.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:43:47 PM
CSCO broke through support near $23.00 this morning. Already below its 50-dma, this break suggests a test of the 200-dma, currently at $20.88. However, as I study the Keltner channels, I notice that on the last retreat, the shortest-length Keltner channel did not penetrate the longest-term one as deeply as it did on the last approach. Sometimes that's a signal that the next bounce will be stronger, so if CSCO is destined to retest its 200-dma, it might not be destined to do so before bouncing to retest broken support between $23-23.70 first.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  12:38:11 PM
Another .58 put to call reading, the 3rd in a row.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:37:18 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) bar chart with WEEKLY and MONTHLY pivot retracement. Similar types of "overlap" levels found as with QQQ chart. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:35:18 PM
The BIX retreated from a descending trendline this morning, but now pauses as it tests the 30-minute 100/130-pma's. If the BIX falls below these averages, that suggests a fall toward 351.50, and then toward 349 if that doesn't hold.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:31:15 PM
The OEX heads up to the top of its descending regression channel on its 5-minute chart again, with that top resistance at 564.10 or so, corresponding to Keltner resistance in the 564.05-564.40 zone. Bulls want a breakout. Bears are happy if the OEX continues turning down at the top of this channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:18:59 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $26.60 +12.56% ... new all-time high. Short squeeze cited.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:16:16 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:16:08 PM
The TRAN just hit a new low of the day a few minutes ago, and there's certainly no confirmation of the potential reversal signal from Friday, as I mentioned this morning. This weakness instead confirms the downturn from the 50 percent retracement of the recent plunge. It was a sign of weakness when the TRAN was not able to maintain levels above that 50 percent retracement, as was the TRAN's failure to confirm the Dow's recent higher high. In the coming days, we need to watch if/when the TRAN approaches 2800, as a print at that level would both violate the recent low and create a new P&F sell signal. Bulls will be hoping instead for a higher low.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:12:37 PM
Recently added OI put play WGO is down 4.55% to $65 after Friday's technical breakdown.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  12:11:18 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert ... 4th of the day. (10:20, 11:25, 11:55)

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:11:02 PM
OI call play RJR is on the move. Shares are up 2.65% to $61.57. These are new 1 1/2 year highs and a strong breakout over long-term resistance at $60.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  12:07:22 PM
The p/c ratio has printed .58 for the second consecutive half hour, very low given the test of critical support and failure of multiple supports.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:06:53 PM
Early morning gains in OI call play PD are fading and shares are trading at -6 cents to $80.81 despite another gain in copper futures.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:04:59 PM
The SOX approaches its 2/04 low of 493.04. A drop below that level would be serious, but we should expect at least a minimal bounce attempt. Of course, bounce attempts haven't been very successful today, have they?

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:04:11 PM
OI call play DHR is testing its 50-dma near $90.25.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:03:04 PM
OI call play AHC is pulling back toward its 10-dma, which should coincide with short-term support near $60.50.

OI call play APOL is also slipping lower towards the $76-75 level of short-term support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  12:02:41 PM
Well, that OEX bounce certainly didn't last long! "Not great strength" from my previous post turned out to be true. The bottom of the five-minute regression channel and bottom Keltner channel support coincide near or just below Friday's low, so the OEX looks to be headed down that direction for a retest, although it's certainly reluctantly headed down so far.

 
 
  James Brown   2/23/200,  12:00:10 PM
Current OI call play QCOM is up 4.73% to $62.23 after raising their earnings guidance this morning. Last month QCOM guided Q2 earnings to the 38-41 cent range. This morning they upped that range to 48-50 cents a share. QCOM's CEO has been quoted as saying "in fiscal year 2002 we shipped 65 million MSM phone chips. Comparatively, in the first two fiscal quarters of 2004 we expect to ship approximately 63-64 million MSM chips."

While this is great news for QCOM it's tough news for us. We had a trigger at 60.75 to go long on QCOM. The gap open at $62.96 forced our entry much higher. Traders may do better to wait and see if QCOM slips back toward the 60.50 level and buy a bounce there.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  11:59:17 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) chart with new WEEKLY retracement and pivot levels. Link

Might take a dx00y back below the MONTHLY Pivot to give gold stocks a lift.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  11:47:30 AM
The OEX did retreat from the top of the five-minute regression channel, but bounced from this morning's previous low, as probably could have been expected. Currently, I'm trying to turn my laptop, which I'm working from today, upside down to see if that formation on the five-minute chart looks like an inverse H&S with a descending neckline at the top of the five-minute regression channel. Unfortunately, turning the laptop upside down isn't making the formation any clearer. If that is what that formation is, the upside target would bring the OEX about up to mid-channel S/R on the bigger descending regression channel seen on the 60-minute chart. Confusing? Perhaps, but what I'm essentially saying is that there's a possibility that the OEX could be using the equal low on today's five-minute chart to climb toward the top of the short-term regression channel. If it breaks to the upside, however, it faces several levels of resistance before hitting midline S/R on that longer-term descending regression channel or even climbing toward the top near 569-570. Keltner channels suggest resistance at 564.83, 565.79, and 566.29, to begin. Some of those numbers are echoed in the 60-minute averages, including the 100-pma at 566.27. This all suggests bounce potential but perhaps not great strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  11:47:15 AM
Spot Gold $398.50 ... (per Jonathan's 11:43:11 post) regarding Greenspan's views on inflation.

Spot Gold found morning resistance just below the $400.00 level. A bit surprising to me considering today's dollar weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  11:26:29 AM
The OEX tested the top of the descending regression channel on the five-minute OEX chart, hit Keltner resistance and pulled back, but not very far. It's trying to find support here. It will soon hit central channel resistance at 565.94. If this particular channel is to be preserved, however, the OEX should soon turn down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  11:17:04 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:50:57 AM
Sector Weakness ... Internet (INX.X) 179.10 -2.06%, Semiconductor (SOX.X) 499.96 -1.93%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 124.22 -1.95%, Networking (NWX.X) 277.30 -1.77%.

Sector Strength .... limited and more fractional with Utility (UTY.X) 314.08 +0.4%, Oil (OIX.X) 314.09 +0.4%, Home Construction (DJUSHB) 589.70 +0.31% and Biotechnology (BTK.X) 535.20 +0.4%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:50:14 AM
The OEX also hit the bottom of a descending regression channel on its 60-minute chart, with that channel forming as of 2/11 and with the top resistance now at 570.75-571. I would expect the OEX to attempt a bounce here, as it appears to have done, but it's possible that this time, the OEX will not make it all the way up to the top of that channel, but instead will get turned back at or before midway, at about 567.40. The 60-minute oscillators do not yet suggest an upturn, however. A failure to find support above Friday's low would have the OEX breaking out of that channel to the downside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:41:30 AM
Since late Friday afternoon, the OEX has established a descending regression channel on the five-minute chart. It just hit the bottom of that channel again, and should bounce up toward top resistance, currently at about 565.40, but descending. Those of you who are in bearish trades want it to turn down again below that level. Those of you in or considering bullish trades want the opposite.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  10:39:25 AM
The put to call ratio has risen to .61, VXO up 1.97% to 16.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:31:58 AM
Sector Bullish % ... I haven't updated this past week's sector bullish % bell curve, but here's a quick look as of 02/13/04 data. Link

Internet (BPINET), Precious Metals (BPPREC), Protection/Safety (BPPROT), Semiconductor (BPSEMI), Software (BPSOFT) and Textiles/Apparel (BPTEXT) were "bear confirmed" and weaker sectors.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:30:07 AM
OEX 566.42 was a swing high on 2/02, and the 566-566.90 zone is proving instrumental today, too, as the OEX continues to trade lower within the possible double-top formation on its daily chart. This action today continues the incipient breakdowns we were seeing on Friday, but as Jim warns, markets approach likely support levels. If trading based only on the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, all OEX traders would be happily in bearish plays, ignoring those support levels. The downturn beneath the central Keltner channel support would have signaled a bearish entry, too. The move below the 30-dma would have signaled the same thing. None of us should ignore potential support, however. For those who have entered bearish plays based on these signals, be sure to set your stops so that they take you out if the OEX should bounce up and violate the 60-minute averages, the mid-channel Keltner support or the 30-dma, depending on your choice of entry signal. Keep watching the TRIN, as you certainly want it to continue rising if in bearish plays.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:27:33 AM
Placer Dome (PDG) $16.42 +0.06% ... was stopped out in early morning trade of this bearish play at Friday's profiled stop of $16.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:26:17 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.67 -0.18% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:25:46 AM
Sears (S) $45.65 -0.78% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:25:14 AM
Sun Communities (SUN) $40.38 -0.22% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:23:38 AM
QQQ most active options have March $37 Calls (27,000) and March $37 puts (14,879). I was looking for a QQQ pop higher and thinking we would see greater call writing, but this action looks like institutions might not be waiting and gives impression that QQQ may be headed toward $35.50 into March expiration. March $37 calls currently bid $0.65, which may hint at a $37.65 level of resistance. This would be pretty close to our WEEKLY R1 this week, which is where I thought QQQ might have tried to bounce to early this week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:20:00 AM
The OEX 30-dma has proven important to watch in February. That MA is currently at 564.27. Although the OEX has violated that MA on an intraday basis in February, it's been closing above it. At least until now. A close below that MA would be important, then.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:15:14 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:11:04 AM
Careful, OEX bears and bulls. While the OEX and SOX might not be showing strength this morning, the BIX began a bounce from its 60-minute 100-pma on Friday, a bounce that's continuing today. The BIX will soon hit a short-term descending trendline that began forming on 2/17, and will hit it just below 356 or just over it, depending on how many candle shadows are included. If the BIX can zoom above that trendline, that might lead the OEX higher, too, but if the BIX rolls down beneath it, it may stop helping to prop up the OEX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  10:09:47 AM
Opening p/c ratio .56, VXO 16.25 unchanged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  10:05:39 AM
This weekend's Ask the Analyst column was delayed, but should be posted later today. In this weekend's column we discuss the public float. QCharts has a tool for measuring the price range for which the public float has been traded. Here's a chart of Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.91 where the public float range is shown, where I add a retracement bracket to this range. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:05:31 AM
On a Keltner channel basis, the SOX looks short-term oversold again and ready to bounce up to test resistance at the mid-channel levels, currently at 513.45 but declining. As Jane, Jonathan, and I have all warned, however, Keltner channels can give valid breakout (or breakdown) signals, too, so this is a sign to be watchful, but not necessarily a sign that the SOX will pick this moment to bounce strongly. It should attempt some sort of bounce through here, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  10:02:22 AM
The SOX is continuing Friday's declines, but is now within that 504-506 support zone that has proven so important lately. This could have strong bounce potential for the SOX, so be watchful. A failure to bounce will be as important as a bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:59:31 AM
Friday, the TRAN printed a candle that could have been a reversal candle--a doji at the bottom of a decline. That reversal signal would have needed to have been confirmed by today's action, and so far, that's not confirming the reversal signal. In a classic sense, the TRAN would have opened above Friday's close, which didn't happen, and would have traded higher all day, which also didn't happen. While we're far from knowing how today's candle will look on the TRAN, it certainly won't be completing a classic morning-star reversal pattern. As I type, the TRAN is at 2886, below 2900.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  9:55:21 AM
The Fed has added a 3.25B overnight repo, refunding the expiring weekend repo in the same amount. Net flat for the day for a change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:54:15 AM
The OEX nested Keltner channels are still trying to align themselves in an equilibrium position, with support at 564.75, 563.96, and bottom support at 563.04.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:51:58 AM
Obviously, the OEX has not been able to maintain levels above the midpoint of the first five-minute range, showing weakness in earliest trading. The OEX also falls below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, also a bearish sign. Keep an eye on the TRIN, though, to see if it continues rising, as this may be just early-morning volatility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  9:50:47 AM
QQQ with WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracement. Overlap resistance at $37.43, Overlap support at $36.77 about to be tested. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:45:02 AM
The OEX is still testing the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, not definitively bouncing from them and not falling through them, either. Today could be a day of continued testing of these averages and their 30-minute version, slightly overhead.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:41:47 AM
The OEX was turned back at central Keltner channel resistance, at least on this first attempt at that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  9:39:16 AM
Swing trade stop alert .... Placer Dome (PDG) $16.57 +0.97% did trade my bearish stop at $16.60 with session high of $16.62.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:39:11 AM
For the benefit of those using Jeff's 5MRT system but not able to access five-minute figures, during the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 565.21 to 566.06.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/23/200,  9:25:26 AM
Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Understanding household debt obligations Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/23/200,  9:16:40 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  9:13:25 AM
As of this writing, futures seem poised for a higher open, but intraday charts gave a mixed outlook as trading ended on Friday. The OEX closed just beneath the 60-minute 100-pma, currently at 566.42, and sitting on the 130-pma on that time frame. A decline below those averages hints at a deeper decline, but MACD was trying for a bullish cross from below signal at the close of trading, hinting that the OEX would try to rise instead of decline. Mid-channel Keltner resistance also lies near that level, backing up the importance of the 566.40-566.77 zone. A climb above that 60-minute 100-pma and mid-channel Keltner resistance should then be a bullish sign, with the Keltner channels suggesting that next resistance would not be found until 569.65 once the OEX tugs free of that zone. However, the OEX will soon face the 30-minute versions of the 100/130-pma's, at 567.64 and 567.32, so there's competing evidence here. I suspect that Keltner lines will spread out, confirming that resistance zone, too, but I've been surprised before when the Keltner channel lines suggested that there was no resistance where I thought there should be, and found that the OEX zoomed past my presumed resistance levels, confirming what the Keltner channels were initially showing.

Let's see what early trading produces, but for now, the OEX's close back above the rising trendline that's been in place since early January and back above the 30-dma portends a bounce attempt, while several factors suggest that the OEX might not be able to move to a higher high, making this a possible countertrend bounce up to test resistance, a bounce that could be stopped near 567 or 569.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/23/200,  8:01:35 AM
No major economic reports due this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/23/200,  7:15:36 AM
Good morning. With the Japanese terror warning remaining in effect and the resulting dollar/yen exchange rate favoring Japanese exporters, Japanese investors focused on the benefit to exporters rather than the terror warning. In addition, January's trade surplus declined by 2.1%, and expectations had been for a bigger decline in the trade surplus. Exports grew again. With both the exchange rate and economic data favoring exporters, those exporters boosted the Nikkei Monday morning. The Nikkei shot up toward 10,900 soon after the open, and then spent the rest of the day trading in a tight range just off the day's high. The Nikkei closer higher by 148.27 points or 1.38%, at 10,868.96.

Automakers gained with the exception of Mitsubishi Motors, hit by a German newspaper report that DaimlerChrysler might extract its stake in the company, a report that Mitsubishi denied. The banking sector turned in a mixed performance, with Shinsea Bank again gaining after Friday's almost 10% decline. Many tech stocks gained, with many chip stocks rebounding after Friday's declines. However, telecommunications stocks KDDI and NTT DoCoMo failed to participate in the early gains in the markets, and at least NTT DoCoMo ended lower, too. I could not find a report on KDDI's close. Nomura, a Japanese investment firm, again advised investors to cut holdings in KDDI, leading to the early declines in both KDDI and NTT DoCoMo.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. The death toll from avian flu now stands at 22 people, and airliners were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted was flat, up 0.1%. Taiwan's January unemployment rate was flat at 4.7%, a worse-than-expected result. South Korea's Kospi was also flat, up only 0.03 points or 0.00%. Citigroup announced its acquisition of KorAm Bank, a South Korean bank, in a cash deal, and the bank's stock plummeted 5.1%. Kia Motors fell after the company reported a 10% rise in 2003's net income and raised its profit target 41% for 2004. Parent company Hyundai Motor rose, however. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.38%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.74% and China's Shanghai Composite declined 2.33%. Of possible interest to U.S. investors is Ford's (F) plan to build a second plant near Shanghai.

European bourses mostly trade higher on a new M&A Monday. C's planned acquisition of KorAm gained attention, but so did Dutch telecom KPN after its weekend announcement of a possible hostile takeover bid for British-based operator Mmo2 and France Telecom after its announcement that it wanted to buy out minority holders in Wanadoo. France Telecom already owns 71% of the Internet services provider. O2 and Wanadoo shares were climbing, while KPN and France Telecom were declining in earlier trading. KPN investors also reacted to the company's earnings report of higher Q4 profits on declining sales, and a plan to resume dividend payments. In other stock-specific news, Deutsche Bank hit a new 52-week high.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 25.80 points or 0.57%, to trade at 4540.80. The CAC 40 has gained 13.20 points or 0.35%, to trade at 3746.48. The DAX has gained 17.86 points or 0.44%, to trade at 4091.21.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/21/200,  2:59:08 PM
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