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  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  5:10:13 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  4:16:22 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,477.13 +0.46% ... gets the close above today's DAILY R1 of 1,475.87. (strength from the tail)

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,144.91 +0.10% ... does NOT close above its DAILY R1 of 1,156.37. (head stable)

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 565.59 -0.06% ... does NOT close above its DAILY R1 of 567.19. (head stable)

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,580.14 -0.2% ... was NOT able to trade its DAILY R1 of 10,624.76. (head slips a bit, but stable)

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 352.23 +0.02% ... was NOT able to trade its DAILY R1 of 510.01 (head stable)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  3:58:15 PM
QQQ $36.72 .... are you looking at the 5-minute bar chart? Look at all those 5-minute closes at $36.73 the last 25-minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  3:58:09 PM
A couple of weeks ago, KO set up a possible rising three methods bullish pattern. Monday through Thursday of that week (2/09-2/12), KO followed the pattern perfectly. All that was needed was a close that Friday above Monday's high. KO tried to do that, opening higher on Friday than Thursday's close, but it fell throughout that day, closing near its low of the day. I mentioned then that the failure to confirm the bullish pattern might be showing us that there was more weakness than seemed apparent, but for a few days, KO just followed a trendline down, staying above the trendline. It finally slipped below that line and below $50.00, a level it's been trying to regain the last couple of days. It hasn't done so yet. RSI indicates that it's ready to give it another try, but a host of moving averages now congregate just over $50.00, so it may be tough going. KO can move big some days, however, surprising you.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  3:56:37 PM
Day trade exit alert .... Oracle (ORCL) $13.30 ... should it trade back at $13.36. Otherwise, I would want to close out before today's close.

In my opinion, stock should have made a more bullish move if today's news was real moving.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  3:52:35 PM
Is TODAY the reversal day for the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,478.10 +0.52%, similar to our DAILY Pivot matrix obervation and back testing to August 11, 2003. It was that day that the NDX.X was able to close above its DAILY R1.

Today's DAILY R1 is 1,475.87

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  3:37:41 PM
One index really charging up the charts is the TRAN, making a bid for the averages grouping now near 2900. The TRAN is at 2887.27 as I type, not quite moving its 33.86 ATR today, but certainly doing its best, trading in a more than 28-point range. I expect to see the TRAN slow its ascent between 2895-2919, so tomorrow could be a consolidation day for the TRAN. I wouldn't be surprised to see a doji or other potential reversal signal tomorrow, but then we'll have to wait until next week to see whether "potential" becomes "actual." Until and unless the TRAN makes it back over a 50% retracement of the recent plunge, which would occur at about 2952, this is just consolidation after the plunge, and not bullish action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  3:31:49 PM
The SOX made it above the midpoint of the range from the 2/19 high to the 2/23 low, but it wasn't able to maintain values above that midpoint and has since fallen back. It's still within striking distance and I wouldn't be surprised to see a big push that ended just shy of the 50-dma. I wouldn't be surprised for a big decline that ended just above the 100-dma, either. It's been that kind of day, with indices trapped between key support and key resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  3:23:48 PM
What if you had reason to believe that the OEX might be expected to move 15 or so points? Would you be willing to wait for that entry and give up days like today and yesterday, when the OEX is just rattling around within a congestion zone? A break of 557 would confirm the double-top formation and would set up a downside target of 541 or so. The OEX has an upside target of 588 on its P&F chart, and an upside break above that double top might signal that the OEX was ready to start charging up toward that upside target, although I believe that "charge" might not be the right word since the OEX would be fighting against a current of congestion all the way up to that upside target. I don't know about you, but I'm not too tempted by all this thrashing around, thrashing around that might occupy days or even weeks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  3:14:28 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  3:07:08 PM
Oracle (ORCL) $13.34 +1.13% ... I have to get internals and 03:15 update done. Will try and alert if target or stop is hit, but may not be immediate.

ORCL did see a 5-minute close above its BLUE #2 of $13.36. I also took a retracement from the 01/16/04 high of $15.03 to today's low, which has 19.1% at $13.27, where $13.27 has held last several minutes pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  3:05:07 PM
For those with reason to watch the Asian markets overnight, remember that Japan sees unemployment and spending figures tomorrow, although I'm not sure of the exact release of those figures. There's been some nervousness ahead of those numbers because changes in government rulings about the contributions employees make has been a worry, as some fear that this effective reduction in wages will also reduce spending by wage earners. Since achieving its 10,300 downside target earlier this month, the Nikkei has been coiling into a symmetrical triangle and ended yesterday at resistance, ready to break out or be turned down again. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  2:57:46 PM
The BIX remains above its 30-dma, the supporting average over the last three days, and below the 10-dma, resistance over the same period. What else can you say? I'm watching for a breakout on the BIX, hoping that it precedes a breakout on the OEX, showing us the direction to bet. Oscillators don't look particularly bullish on this index, but we just have to wait and see.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/26/200,  2:56:18 PM
BEAS - Rumor circulating that ORCL will make a run for them now that the PSFT bid has been blocked.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  2:55:21 PM
The OEX five-minute Keltner channels are lining up again in an equilibrium position, which would normally suggest a breakout in the making except for that new tendency of theirs to break out only as far as the mid-length channel, currently at 566.58 (just below the weekly pivot) and 564.76.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  2:52:07 PM
Day trade long alert ... Oracle (ORCL) $13.37 here, stop $13.22, target $13.65.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  2:49:41 PM
Reader Question: What's the current [futures] month for equities, gold, treasuries, oil, copper, silver, and palladium and when do we change over?

Response: I'm getting varying information as to the contract months when I perform research into the commodities listed here for this reader, and I can't account for the discrepancies since I don't trade any futures. Does someone have an answer to this reader's question?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  2:45:59 PM
Oracle (ORCL) $13.35 +1.21% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  2:44:50 PM
PeopleSoft (PSFT) $21.59 -2.5% ... sharply lower on news that Justice Department blocks merger attempt by ORCL.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/26/200,  2:37:35 PM
Justice dept saying they are going to block the ORCL/PSFT deal

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  2:30:30 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 581.66 +0.45% ... easing back from session high of 583.41 and its rounding lower 21-day SMA of 582.20.

Yet another test for strength would be an RUT.X close above its 21-day SMA.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  2:20:30 PM
Another quick observation... bulls might want to look closely at the bounce from $72.00 and the 50-dma in shares of Invitrogen (IVGN). The stock looks poised for a run to $80-82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  2:17:16 PM
I continue to watch the possible rising wedge on the OEX 30- and 60-minute charts, watching for a breakout one direction or the other. Other than that, it's difficult to know what to say about the action because it's just more chop as far as I'm concerned.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  2:16:00 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  2:15:16 PM
Another one to watch for stock traders is Gateway (GTW). The stock broke out above 3 1/2 month resistance at $5.15 last week and has since pulled back to retest support, which is common. Now shares are starting to rebound again with new support at its 10-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  2:06:26 PM
The recent consolidation in Autozone (AZO) between $91.50 and $88.00 may be over soon and traders may want to consider a trigger over $91.50 to capture the next breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  1:55:47 PM
The OEX is slowly drifting back down toward the central Keltner channel support on the five-minute chart, with that support at 565.25 currently. I'm noticing a change in the way the OEX is reacting over the last week with respect to those Keltner channels. Usually when it moved into an equilibrium position and then broke out, it would move all the way to the outer channel lines I watch, currently at 567.87 and 562.65. This last week, however, the OEX has instead been finding resistance and support at the mid-length channel I watch, currently at 566.52 and 564.72, sometimes overshooting that channel a bit.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  1:55:32 PM
just a quick observation...Lexmark (LXK) is bouncing from support at $80.00 and its 50-dma. It might be worth looking into for a bullish move to $86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  1:53:54 PM
All sectors in the green except for Defense (DFX.X) 206.41 -0.97% and Drugs (DRG.X) 342.60 -0.16%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  1:50:20 PM
We're now in the middle of the usual stop-running push time that often comes between 1:35-1:55 EST. There sure isn't much happening yet, though, is there?

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  1:49:56 PM
Another bullish candidate may be Anthem (ATH). Shares have been consolidating sideways between 81 and 85 all month and are breaking out over the $85 level today. If you prefer you could play the move in ATH through its acquisition target Wellpoint Health Network (WLP), which is also breaking out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  1:49:20 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 87.63 +0.43% .... a bit surprised at the $HUI.X 224.52 +1.28% gains considering the dx00y has been bound between 87.50-87.80 since 10:00 AM EST.

With the $HUI.X finding such strong support at the lows again today, I've got to think we're seeing a strong amount of short covering, or some type of inflation concern.

Treasury YIELDs also higher, as if some thought of inflation, with 10-year YIELD up 4.4 basis points to 4.059%.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  1:45:34 PM
Stock traders may want to keep eye on Lucent (LU). The stock found support at $3.90 five days ago and has since been climbing its rising 40-dma. Shares are approaching the descending trendline of lower highs and we could see a bullish breakout soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  1:44:51 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,145.19 +0.13% ... should make note that the SPX session high of 1,147.23, came just shy of its WEEKLY Pivot of 1,147.36.

So far this week, the SPX has NOT been able to see trade at this level.

This would be a test for strength that the SPX has not achieved.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  1:37:47 PM
Swing trade bearish stop alert ... I was stopped out of swing trade bearish in Newmont Mining (NEM) $43.51 +0.88% at $43.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  1:32:26 PM
Here's the rising wedge I mentioned seeing on the OEX 30-minute chart: Link These wedges usually break to the downside before more than 2/3 of the way into the wedge. This one could break at any time now, with classical technical analysis suggesting the break will be to the downside, but recent history going against that conclusion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  1:12:57 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  1:12:56 PM
I certainly agree with Keene's assessment that this market is unreliable any direction.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/26/200,  1:07:32 PM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Bies
The Economic Outlook and the State of Household and Business Finances Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  1:01:49 PM
Hmmm.. interesting... Japan's anti-monopoly authorities raided Microsoft's Japan division today. A MSFT spokesperson only confirmed that the Japan FTC "inspected" their Tokyo headquarters. (-AP)

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:57:39 PM
All right, folks it's time to eat more pancakes. IHOP Corp (IHP) reported earnings today of 41 cents a share. This missed estimates of 47 cents despite a 6% rise in same-store sales. The company cited a reduction in franchised stores and a change in the business model for the drop in profits. At least they didn't blame the low-carb craze for their results!

Surprisingly the stock is trading unchanged at $37.13 (that or my qcharts are frozen).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  12:55:52 PM
I'm starting to see a rising wedge shape take form on the OEX 30-minute chart. (In a wedge, the lines both go the same direction, such as both slanting up, while in a triangle, they go different directions.) The apex of that wedge is at about 567.60, and would be hit tomorrow afternoon. Usually there's a breakout or breakdown about 2/3 of the way into these formations, and that should happen late this afternoon or early tomorrow morning. These used to be considered bearish formations, but they haven't turned out that way for almost a year, so I'd urge caution for everyone, just to make sure I've got it covered!

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:48:16 PM
We're seeing some pretty amazing strength in shares of Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). Yesterday the company priced a secondary offering of 9.19 million shares at $31. This is almost 10% of the outstanding shares and should have been a negative pressure on the stock. Instead we're seeing RL breakout to new all-time highs today, boosted by an upgrade by Merrill Lynch from "neutral" to "buy". What's amazing is that RL has had overhead resistance in the $31.00-31.50 level dating back to 1998 and shares are breaking out above this level today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  12:45:18 PM
I'm just not excited about the action today and wasn't yesterday, either. Once again, it would have been nice, perhaps (volatility was collapsing, the reason behind the "perhaps"), to participate in an OEX play from 563 up to 567, but with the OEX ringed round by tight support and tight resistance and indications mixed across several time frames, traders could have legitimately jumped into plays going both directions today. Watching the TRIN and advdec levels led me to believe earlier that the OEX wasn't through testing overhead resistance, but didn't assure me that it was going to zoom past that resistance. I'm still not sure it's going to do so, although the trajectories of the TRIN and advdec line continue to hint at building strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:43:59 PM
OEX 566.53 +0.11% ... sitting right at WEEKLY Pivot and that overlap after a session high of 566.99. Market participants seem unsure....

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:43:03 PM
While still under its trend of lower highs National Semiconductor (NSM) is up 3.4% after Smith Barney upped the stock to a buy this morning. Look for a move over $41.00 to break the current descending trendline of resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:40:25 PM
Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 583.26 +0.72% ... makes a move above its rounding lower 21-day SMA of 582.28.

Currently passing a test for strength per August 11, 2003 history scenario.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:38:58 PM
Bullish traders may want to consider Netease.com (NTES). The stock has been consolidating under $52.00 with a short-term trend of higher lows. One could use a trigger above $52.00 to open the play, which should also be a bullish breakout above the neckline of what appears to be a reverse head and shoulders pattern. However, be aware that the bottom of the gap in October could be resistance. View a chart here: Link

If you don't believe in P&F charts, check out NTES'. The recent lows have been perfect bounces from its P&F support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:37:55 PM
BULLS saying ... need to drive it here. Session highs all around.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:36:25 PM
BIIIIIG TEST FOR STRENGTH HERE ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:36:05 PM
OEX ... 566.74 +0.15% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:35:40 PM
QQQ ... $36.78 +0.54% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:33:38 PM
Buy prog. prem. alert

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  12:33:18 PM
The OEX is now above the daily pivot and the 60-minute 100-pma, headed up for another test of the weekly pivot at 566.67.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:29:56 PM
OEX 565.52 -0.06% .... here's 60-minute chart of OEX. Begin making tie to 60-minute chart of QQQ. Note yesterday's trade in OEX at overlap. Link

These overlaps now become best test for near-term strength.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:29:11 PM
Another stock posting some pretty impressive gains in the last two sessions is Foundry Networks (FDRY). Shares broke their 200-dma on Monday and bounced from round-number support at $20.00 intraday on Tuesday. The afternoon bounce from Tuesday continued into Wednesday's session and FDRY reclaimed its 200-dma. Today the stock is up another 5.4% after JMP upgraded the stock to "out perform". Technical oscillators are naturally bullish now with such a reversal but shares still have resistance overhead at $24.50-25.00.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:24:24 PM
Tiffany & Co (TIF) is adding to yesterday's gains with a 6.38% rally today after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from "in-line" to "out perform" this morning. This follows TIF's earnings results from yesterday where the company reported Q4 revenues up 18% with net income of 74 cents a share, or 4 cents above estimates.

The breakout over the 50-dma today is also a breakout over price resistance in the 41.00-41.50 level. The move has also produced a low-pole reversal on its P&F chart. The next level of resistance is $45.25-45.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:21:33 PM
QQQ $36.65 +0.21% ... Here's updated 60-minute interval chart. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  12:15:13 PM
As we enter the lunchtime lull, the TRIN has stopped falling and the advdec has stopped climbing, but that may be an affect of the lunchtime lull. Still, this bears watching.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:15:12 PM
Shuffle Master Inc (SHFL), the maker of automatic card shufflers for playing cards, is up another 7.7% today to a new all time high after Deutsche raised the stock from a "hold" to a "buy" this morning. Shares are up strongly in the last two days after SHFL chose to drop its patent lawsuit against Casino Austria and buy the company instead. SHFL is expected to announce earnings after the close tonight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  12:13:12 PM
The SOX moved above the 504-506 resistance today and now challenges the combined strength of the 10- and 21-dma's, at 510.61 and 510.86, respectively. The 50-dma is just overhead at 516. Today's high constituted a 50% retracement of the decline from the 2/19 high of 535.55 to the 2/23 low of 491.26. That 50% retracement is at about 513.20, near the 60-minute 100-pma at 513.03. As long as the SOX stays below that retracement level, it's still possible that the bounce is nothing more than a reflexive bounce off the equal low, up to retest the broken resistance. The SOX has a habit of overshooting targets, so I'd give it a little upside leeway to overshoot that 50% retracement level, too, before I considered the SOX as behaving too bullishly. In fact, since the 50-dma is watched so closely, I'd wait for a move above (close above?) that MA.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:09:56 PM
Pulte Homes (PHM) was on our watch list last night and today the stock is up 4.54% to $49.19 after issuing a positive press release on its long-term outlook. PHM believes it will be able to produce 20% (or more) annual earnings growth for the next three years.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:08:26 PM
QQQ swing trade update alert .... long at $36.71, stop $36.24, target $37.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  12:04:15 PM
QQQ $36.63 +0.13% ... A test I would have to apply for the QQQ today is for strength to be present, a BULL would want to see a close ABOVE today's DAILY Pivot of $36.53, or NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 1,468.56.

My thinking is if we were to see a close back below the DAILY Pivots, then the bulk of any strength seen at this point has simply been some profit taking by bears, where the break lower on weaker than expected January durable goods data didn't find near-term bearish follow through.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  12:02:29 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) has been a big under performer the last several weeks, falling from the $58 region toward the $42 level (-27%). Shares are bouncing today (+1.42%) after Fulcrum upped the stock to a "buy". The stock is due for an oversold bounce and the recent low happens to coincide with its P&F chart support.

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  11:59:27 AM
Noon sector update

Winners:
DJUSHB homebuilders: +2.16%
XNG natural gas: +1.13%
NWX networking: +1.28%
Semiconductors: +1.00%

Losers:
DFI defense: -0.54%
XAU gold/silver: -0.39%
XBD broker-dealer: -0.37%

 
 
  James Brown   2/26/200,  11:55:16 AM
Homebuilders are rising on the better than expected new homes sales numbers (1.11 million vs. estimates of 1.06 mln) and current OI call play DHI is up another 1.08% and continuing yesterday's rebound from the 29.25 level. This still looks like an entry point for calls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:52:17 AM
As of a few minutes ago, total volume stood at 466 million for the NYSE and 647 million for the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios were 17:14 for the NYSE and 15:14 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was 1.1 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.4 times down volume on the Nasdaq. These are mildly bullish results, but only mildly so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:50:24 AM
Inchworm action as I see it is that the "head" or strength sectors are just sitting here, while the "tail" or recently weak sectors of the market are moving higher.

Would at least have to look for steady trade at the head, or some type of confirming strength higher.

INDU 10,568.60 -0.3% and SPX 1,143.41 -0.02%, while tail NDX.X 1,473.69 +0.23%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:43:47 AM
The TRIN continues lower while the advdec line continues to climb, now positive by 916 issues, and the VIX hangs around near the day's low, currently at 14.96. Keep an eye on the trajectories of these. Although I wouldn't go so far as to say that these are projecting a move higher, they certainly currently suggest that tests of overhead resistance aren't concluded yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:43:09 AM
Swing trade long alert filled ... was filled on QQQ $36.71

I thought I had profiled entry point yesterday at $36.73, but till take the trade. I should have made an adjustment for strength above today's DAILY R1 of $36.72. Still, if the QQQ is going to make its move, then I've got to think the WEEKLY S1 of $36.31 is support for the drive higher.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  11:37:01 AM
Latest p/c ratio at the low end of neutral at .64, VXO +.72% at 15.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:26:44 AM
The BIX is just under yesterday's close of 352.13, or was as I began preparing this post. If it should manage positive levels again, it will soon face the resistance of the former supporting ascending trendline. Today that trendline and the 10-dma are tracking each other fairly well, so those watching the BIX as a measure of OEX strength or weakness and hoping for an upside breakout might use a move above the 10-dma as one measure of such a breakout. Be careful, though, as the BIX daily chart shows a lot of candles with upper shadows, their spikes showing the BIX's attempts to pierce resistance, but failure to maintain those levels. Daily oscillators point down. Those hoping for a downside break might watch the 30-dma, as that average has been supporting the BIX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:17:51 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:10:21 AM
The OEX approaches its daily pivot at 565.46.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:09:05 AM
I've replaced the non-working link in my 11:06 post with this one: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:08:37 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $43.00 +2.62% ... notable new 52-week high here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  11:06:55 AM
Since breaking out of its rising regression channel, the GSO has been trading sideways rather than dropping, complicating the picture. Is it breaking down? Is it holding up? It's certainly holding above the 100-dma, currently at 151.41, and traders might use a break below that level to indicate that the breakdown out of the rising regression channel really is a breakdown. Something interesting, though, is that the GSO candle bodies are all forming along that 72-ema over the last few days. Here's a look at the channel and the 72-ema: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  11:06:35 AM
Latest p/c ratio .61, re-approaching neutral territory.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:01:47 AM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:01:10 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 579.38 +0.05% ... first major to show a gain. RUT.X finds a rounding lower 21-day SMA just ahead at 582.11

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:57:16 AM
Lower swing trade bearish stop alert .... Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.66 -1.11% ... lowering swing trade bearish stop to $43.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:52:48 AM
Defense Index (DFX) 205.84 -1.24% ... only sector I currently show down more than 1%. United Technologies (UTX) $89.83 -2.67% continues to show weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  10:43:06 AM
While Keltner channels suggest an OEX descent to 562-562.50, the 30- and 60-minute 0.675% envelopes suggest a deeper decline. The 30-minute chart suggests a decline to 557 and the 60-minute, to 560.92. With TRIN and the advdec lines trying to (but not quite) move into a more bullish mode, it may be that overhead tests of resistance are not quite concluded. OEX 564.50-565.50 should now constitute fairly strong resistance, although that conclusion remains in question until the intraday charts recover from the missing data. That level's resistance is backed up, however, by the presence of the daily pivot at 565.46.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  10:42:13 AM
me again, hey we should all be buying calls???? everyone else is ---p/c is .55 but trin is bearish. buy calls???? sucker punch????? mike

I generally look to fade a low put to call ratio, which is why I added the caution in my 10:36 post. The low p/c reading of .55 could be a large call buyer on the right side of the trade, or it could be a boatload of suckers all moving to one side together- that's why it's a tricky, secondary indicator. But the VXO is up 3%, showing that they're paying more for those calls currently. It can go either way, but my reflex is to fade the call buyers here because of that low reading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  10:36:49 AM
Careful bulls: the p/c ratio has dropped to .55- looks like they're loading the boat with calls off the day low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:33:42 AM
Qcharts users might want to check accuracy of Net gain/loss calculations for stocks and indices. I'm showing a lot of innacurate data.

General Electric (GE) $32.75 is down $0.21, not $0.02 as shown in my Qcharts display. I'm going to shut down for a minute and see if this clears errors.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  10:33:27 AM
The TRIN remains above 1.00 but still at the low of the day, while the advdec remains negative but has been creeping up. Keep a watch on the trajectories of these two.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:28:46 AM
Correction ... that buy program premium alert I posted, was in error. I had not cleared yesterday's level from my QCharts register. While the SPX has moved higher from that errant alert, it was not a correct premium alert.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  10:24:23 AM
I don't yet trust the information my OEX intraday charts are giving me, because they're likely to be skewed still by the missing data, but the five and fifteen-minute Keltner charts still suggest a decline at least down to 562.05-562.50. Was this morning's approach close enough to be considered a test of that higher number? Perhaps, but that number was suggested on the 15-minute chart, and the OEX usually pierces that particular channel line before moving up. However, this may be one effect of the missing data today. Perhaps that approach was close enough.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:22:58 AM
Buy Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:17:01 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 87.64 +0.45% ... (30-minute delayed) ... session high came at 87.99 (DAILY R2 87.96) and has seen lower trade from there.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 220.84 -0.37% ... has recouped bulk of morning losses after session low of 217.10, where this 217.10 has been support for 3 sessions (Monday-Wednesday) and again this morning.

Where is this $HUI.X 217.10 support comming from? If I take a retracement from the 01/06/04 relative high of 258.01, and attach it to the 02/02/04 relative low of 207.75, the 19.1% retracement is 217.35, where 38.2% is higher at 226.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  10:15:07 AM
The TRIN is at 1.30, far down from its opening level at 2.00, but moving up as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:11:41 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  10:08:11 AM
Today should be a challenge. The charting service wasn't giving me quotes for the BIX, either, until a few minutes ago, so I'm not sure the quote I have now is current, but I show the BIX now holding just above the 348.50-351 support zone, at 351.43 as I type. Since falling below the ascending trendline off the 1/29 low earlier this week, the BIX has been trading below that line, coming up yesterday to retest it before falling back again. It has, however, been finding support each day at its 30-dma, currently at 350.37, bouncing from that support. It's trapped between resistance and support, then, with daily oscillators headed down. Watching for a breakout either direction could help give us direction on the OEX, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  10:05:19 AM
Opening p/c ratio at the low end of neutral, .64.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  10:03:34 AM
Industrials Services of America (IDSA) $24.31 +23% ... new highs

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/26/200,  9:59:27 AM
Help Wanted Index = 38 , (last 38)
New Home Sales = 1.106m , (est 1.05M, last 1.06M)
Labor Turnover Survey = 10.6% , (last 1.8%)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:55:51 AM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,465.75 -0.3% .... low/high so far 1,462.12-1,469.03.

NDX.X didn't violated DAILY S1, but QQQ $36.45 -0.35% did with low of $36.34.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  9:55:33 AM
A nice big 9B 4-day repo from an obviously worried Fed brings the day's tally to +5B currently. Still time left for an overnight repo if Al Green decides to further intervene.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  9:54:14 AM
My intraday charts are likely to be messed up for a while, since the charting service omitted several five-minute candles, but when I look at an OEX intraday chart, I see it smack in the middle of the most recent range from about 561.25-566.75. Yesterday, I said that if we could only be sure that 561-568 range would continue, we could trade range. The problem with that theory is two-fold: we didn't know if the range would continue, and the 563-563.50 support lay right in the middle of that range, with the OEX sometimes turning at that support. So far, though, the range has held.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:52:47 AM
Sector action broadly lower with Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 218.10 -1.61%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 124.18 -1.02% leading weakness.

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 352.13 +0.28%, Home Construction (DJUSHB) 590.48 +0.42%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:50:42 AM
More economic data due at 10:00 .... January new home sales forecasted at 1.075 versus December's 1.060.

Helpw wanted for January forecasted at 39 versus December's 38.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  9:47:55 AM
The TRAN has retreated a few points from its day's high today and currently sits on the 19.1% retracement of the recent plunge, with that retracement at 2866.48 and with the TRAN currently at 2867.98. The rise off Monday's low still looks like a bear-flag rise into resistance, likely to roll down before 2900-2919, but we'll have to keep a close watch.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:42:32 AM
General Electric (GE) $32.72 -0.15% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:41:21 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $26.54 -0.63% Link ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  9:40:48 AM
A 12B 14-day repo expired today, and the fed has announced an 8B 14-day repo to replace it, net drain 4B. We await the 10AM announcement to see if any short term repos will top up the difference.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:40:19 AM
QQQ $36.45 ... session high $36.54 found selling right at the DAILY Pivot of $36.53.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:38:15 AM
Sun Communities (SUN) $40.86 -0.02% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:37:43 AM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 217.88 -1.7% .... holding above yesterday's lows of 217.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  9:36:44 AM
Careful, OEX traders. My charting service is not updating OEX prices. During the first five minutes of trade, the OEX ranged from 566.47 to 566.01, I believe, although I'm not certain since I'm not certain when my charting service stopped updating. On the Keltner channels, next support lies near 565.66 and then stronger at 565.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:36:22 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.67 -1.06% ... session low has been $42.56. Yesterday, stock edged up after lower open, when it lost the early morning low, got crushed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  9:33:23 AM
The SOX is again at the 100-dma this morning, with that average at 505.30, and the SOX currently at 505.59.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:31:30 AM
Darden Restaurants (DRI) $24.00 +8.4% Link ... Wachovia upgrade. DRI also saying it expects Q3 (February) EPS of $0.45-$0.46 per share, which is well above consensus of $0.36.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:28:00 AM
DIA $105.90 ... down $0.29

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:27:20 AM
SPY $114.69 ... down $0.18

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:26:24 AM
QQQ $36.52 ... down $0.06 from Wednesday's close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  9:23:12 AM
When I look at the daily and weekly charts of the OEX, I come away with different impressions. The weekly chart gives me the impression of an index that's consolidating sideways after breaking above an important retracement level--the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. A sideways consolidation instead of a pullback shows strength. A glance at the daily chart shows me the possibility that the OEX could confirm a double-top formation, with a possible downside target near 541, suggesting that a pullback still remains a possibility. As of yet, that's only a possibility, with the OEX so far holding above the 563-563.50 support on a closing basis. The oscillators on the daily chart give mixed evidence, and other evidence is inconclusive, too, with the OEX closing right on/slightly above the 30- and 60-minute 100-pma's. A clean break above those averages suggests a move toward 568.50-569, at least according to the 30- and 60-minute charts, with a move up to 571-571.75 (site of a descending trendline on the daily chart) suggested by the daily chart. That clean break hasn't occurred yet and oscillators don't appear committed either direction, either. So far, tests of the weekly pivot at 566.67 have turned back the OEX, although that pivot was penetrated briefly yesterday.

Futures indicate that the clean break isn't to be expected first thing this morning. To the downside, that 563-563.50 zone might provide support, and then the 558.50-561.25 zone is another congestion zone that might provide support. Below that 557-557.40 is almost guaranteed to provide bounce potential, at least on a short-term basis, since that's the confirmation level for the double-top formation. Unless there's going to be a cascading move down or a gap down below that one of these days, a bounce attempt seems to be built in once the OEX hits that level, but perhaps a countertrend bounce. To me, this signals a lot of chop in a wide band from 557 to recent highs, a band that's difficult to trade, especially with the OEX sitting right in the middle of that band. The current climate seems ideal for some Mike Parnos type plays, but not for directional OEX plays.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  8:30:42 AM
Durable orders -1.8%, initial claims +6K to 350K.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/26/200,  8:01:44 AM
We await 8:30 data to include initial claims, est. 345K, and durable orders, est. 1.4%. At 10AM, the help wanted index for January, est. 39, and new home sales, est. 1.075M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/26/200,  7:15:46 AM
Good morning. January's retail sales rose a much greater-than-expected 4.5% in Japan, with the expectations for a gain of 1.3%. New Year's clearance sales were credited with plumping up those figures, but they were also considered a sign that consumer spending may increase. Year-over-year, sales grew 1.3%. Tomorrow sees a release of unemployment and spending figures in Japan, and some have worried that personal spending may not continue to increase at previous rates due to falling wages, so any signs that personal spending may increase are heartening. Asian markets interpreted Greenspan's comments yesterday in a positive light, too, focusing on his belief that the U.S. economy will grow and not on his worries about the growing deficit. The firming of the dollar against the yen doesn't hurt, either, helping exporters.

The Nikkei faltered at the starting gate in Thursday's trading, however, but soon found its legs and climbed back above the opening level. After slipping back to the opening level again early in the afternoon session, the Nikkei then soared during the rest of the afternoon, after the Bank of Japan announced that the strengthening economy would allow it to keep monetary policy steady. The Nikkei closed higher by 156.56 points or 1.47%, at 10,815.29. Wednesday's and Thursday's gains have still not quite made up for Monday's losses, however.

Exporters, automakers and banks traded mostly higher. Shinsea Bank was one exception to the gains in the banking sector. Softbank also did not participate in tech-related gains, closing flat, as the Internet investor's company sorts out the impact of this week's revelation that customers' personal information had been leaked and that four men had been arrested as a result, accused of trying to extort money from the company. Complaints poured in from its customers after the news. In other stock-specific news, Japan's Fair Trade Commission launched an anti-trust investigation against Microsoft with a raid of Microsoft Japan's offices on Thursday.

Most other Asian bourses climbed, too, with a few exceptions. The Taiwan Weighted gained 48.97 points. South Korea's Kospi lost 0.23%. SK Telecom announced the resignation of several executives after recent bookkeeping and financial scandals, and the company's stock gained as a result. With Singapore's economy growing a faster-than-expected 11% in the October-December quarter, far more than the expected 7.9-9%, Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.09%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.55% and China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.46.

European bourses mostly trade higher, too, with the firming dollar also helping those bourses. German Chancellor Schroeder and French Prime Minister Raffarin have this week criticized the EU Central Bank's monetary policy, and speculation arose that the bank might lower interest rates in the EU. February's French consumer confidence rose to 103, up from January's 102, but one market-watcher honed in on declines in foreign orders for everything except consumer goods. The pharmaceuticals have drawn much attention lately, and that was true today, too, after a WSJ report that Novartis and Aventis were talking in an effort to help Aventis fend off a hostile takeover bid by Sanofi-Synthelabo. Neither Novartis nor Aventis has decided whether the deal should be attempted, according to the report. European news reports today also featured insurers, with French insurer AXA gaining slightly after its earnings report, and Munich Re deciding not to participate in an equity offering by German bank HVB in the bank's capital-raising plan. That lowers Munich Re's stake in the bank. Allianz's stake will also be reduced. HVB had dropped 2.5% in early trading as its plan was received badly.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 12.30 points or 0.27%, to 4519.80. The CAC 40 was up 16.53 points or 0.45%, to 3719.16. The DAX is up 12.73 points or 0.32%, to 4008.07, opening back over that key 4000 level today, coming down to touch it once and then moving up again. The DAX is still on a P&F buy signal with an upside target of 4550, although it's currently in an "O" column. It would take a trade at 3550 to create a new sell signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/25/200,  12:45:41 AM
Gold futures (gc04j) overnight trade I looked at before turning in for the night. This is same chart, but on 10-minute intervals, shown in this evening's Index Trader Wrap. Link

It just feels like tomorrow could be a rather pivotal day. Things seem to be positioned form something big.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/25/200,  12:24:56 AM
Japan's Nikkei-225 10,739.05 +0.75% Link ... current session low/high has been 10,690.95-10,772.29.

No charting would be done at this point on the PnF chart.

A trade at 10,900 would be bullish, but when I think of the current session trade, I get the feel that the $NIKK was making a strong move higher, then traders stopped to think... "wait a minute, don't get carried away. There's some very important economic data about to be released in the U.S."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/25/200,  9:26:05 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/25/200,  8:19:21 PM
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