Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  4:22:53 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  4:01:15 PM
On behalf of Jane, who always wishes everyone a good weekend, have a great weekend, everyone. I sure miss her updates and will be glad to see her return.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  4:00:52 PM
Micron Tech (MU) $15.01 -1.11% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:56:49 PM
It looks as if the OEX is going to end the day hugging that rising red trendline on the daily chart I've been showing, with daily oscillators not giving much sign of direction, and with weekly formations showing the OEX also to be hugging support. It's a difficult decision for those of you who might be holding bearish or bullish positions, as to whether to hold over the weekend, as an argument could be made either direction. Make the decision that's best for your account management style and that allows you to enjoy time this weekend with friends and family.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:54:54 PM
Bearish day trade close alert .... close out Micron (MU) short here at the offer.... $15.06.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:53:24 PM
The BIX has pulled back below 354 again, leaving only a candle shadow above that descending trendline off the 2/17 high.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  3:51:33 PM
I recently mentioned NTES as an aggressive bullish candidate for a breakout over $52.00. That breakout has a occurred. This could be an entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:50:43 PM
Day trade lower stop alert ... lower stop in Micron to $15.06. Showing 115,000 at the $15.05 offer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:49:34 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:46:53 PM
The OEX has so far maintained the rising red trendline on the daily chart I posted early this morning: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:38:48 PM
Day trade lower stop alert in Micron (MU) to $15.11, just keep following it lower.

MU $15.05 here...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:37:35 PM
MU $15.08 bid... specialiast showing 61,000 at $15.09. Might be a seller to $15.00.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  3:36:16 PM
quick observation -- BWA may be a short under the $90.00 level now that it's broken its 50-dma. easy target is the 100-dma near $85.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:34:20 PM
MU Just at the RED #4 of $15.08. Bears will be fortunate at this point to get $15.04 is my thinking.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:33:35 PM
Here's a look at an OEX weekly chart with Fib levels: Link

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  3:33:21 PM
If the bullish play in PD looks too pricey for you gold and copper miner FCX is looking bullish with a nice 2.35% bounce from its 50-dma and $40 level of support today. The recent consolidation actually looks like a bull flag pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:32:58 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 503.82 -1.18% ... right back at the ascending neckline of the potential head shoulder top pattern

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  3:31:35 PM
Day trade lower stop alert Lower stop in MU bearish day trade to $15.15

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  3:31:23 PM
((I'm back but I've been trying to find something worth playing for next week))

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  3:19:51 PM
Editors Play - The editors play for this Sunday is going to be puts on DNA. This is a heads up if anybody wants to beat the rush. I am expecting the excitement to fade on Monday and I am targeting the March-$105 puts.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  3:15:20 PM
Jeff and James were at the office luncheon as well and will be back in a few minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:14:36 PM
The SOX is easing back below its 100-dma at 505.90, although it's still well within striking distance of that average. Today's action still looks like a possible bear flag rising from the expected bounce point at the equal low, but that's still to be decided by either an upside break above the 30-, 50- and 100-dma's or by a fall out of that flag formation and a dip to a lower low. Oscillators sure support the bearish scenario, though, with RSI turning down again. We'll just have to see, however. When I look at the weekly chart, I see a possible H&S formation, but I can't tell whether the right shoulder is fully formed, or whether there would need to be another rise to give it a better shape. Weekly oscillators look more bearish than bullish, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  3:01:41 PM
The BIX is breaking above one version of a descending trendline off the 2/17 high (with this version a best-fit version that cuts off a few candle shadows). It's doing so only minimally, however. Watch 354, as bulls don't want to see it move back below that level, an indication that the breakout was a trap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:58:50 PM
The TRAN is at the 100-pma again, or has actually edged over it by a few points. Still ahead is the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline, near 2920.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:55:29 PM
It might not be surprising to some to learn that ADX on the OEX daily chart has fallen from late January's +50 level to its current 19.35 level, indicating that the strong trend has given way to range-bound trading. That means that we should be able to trust oscillator evidence again. So what do oscillators show? On the OEX, they depicted bearish divergence as the equal high was being put in place but are currently signaling tentative bullish divergence as some reach equal lows while price has not yet done so. That divergence can be erased if the OEX falls to new lows, but this kind of conflicting evidence is often seen in coiling-type action. RSI is oscillating around near 50, a neutral level. So, although we should be able to trust the oscillators due to that low ADX level, they're sure not telling us much. 5(3)3 stochastics are pointed up in full bullish run, but the OEX isn't making much headway as they cycle up pretty fast toward levels indicating overbought conditions, not a particularly bullish combination.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:48:17 PM
Here's the latest depiction of the rising wedge on the OEX 15- to 60-minute charts, seen here on the 15-minute chart: Link Note that the OEX has moved above a 50% retracement of this morning's decline, which it really shouldn't do if this was a measured distribution form of some sort, but stops are being run everywhere, so . . .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:41:31 PM
The OEX came back to test mid-channel Keltner support again, and this time, the various channel lines are about evenly spaced to the upside and the downside, showing resistance and support to be about equally matched.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:23:58 PM
The TRIN is sinking, but it hasn't yet hit its FH high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:23:18 PM
This morning, I asked if people remembered those days when formations were broken both to the upside and to the downside, with both being traps, and it appears that's happened today again, as I wondered if it might. Either that rising wedge on the 60-minute chart had no validity, market participants can't make up their minds, the OEX is reforming itself into another formation, or a combination of the above is occurring. I'm still sticking to my story from my first chart this morning, that the OEX is treacherous to trade inside the double-top formation and the confirmation level of that double-top formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:12:13 PM
While the BIX has possibly fallen beneath an ascending trendline on the daily chart and is rising to test it today, the DJI is maintaining its ascending trendline formed over the last couple of months. With that trendline just under today's low, on one version anyway, and with 10,600 giving the Dow so much trouble, this index is going to have to make a decision one way or the other, soon, because that trendline and the resistance are squeezing prices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  2:09:08 PM
Although I hesitate to say much about the BIX because of the erroneous chart information this morning, the BIX currently appears to be jammed underneath an ascending trendline that it violated earlier this week, and it's back above (if it was ever below) the 30-dma. It's also jammed up beneath the descending trendline off the 2/17 high. So, as seems to be so often true of the BIX, it's caught between possible strong support and possible strong resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  2:00:11 PM
Micron Technology (MU) $15.13 -0.32% ... session low here. Here is my day trader's chart. Link

I have to step out for the next couple of hours and this would be how I would look to trade these levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  1:57:50 PM
The TRAN still challenges 2900, but still hasn't been able to maintain numbers above that level. It's holding above the grouped 10- and 21-dma's but staying below the 100-dma and that 2900 resistance. Only a little more than a point below 2900, though, it's well within striking distance of that and the 100-dma at 2908.53 again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  1:44:58 PM
The OEX did move above the resistance zone indicated as strong resistance on the 15-minute Keltner channel chart, but not on a 15-minute closing basis. The OEX still appears to be moving up in a possible bear flag after today's quick drop, and I'm now watching the 566.40 level (midpoint of the drop) to see if the OEX breaks down again before retracing higher than that level. Certainly the rise looks like a bear flag, and certainly it's rising into the presumed resistance offered by the broken support of the rising wedge and the weekly pivot, but I'm not presuming much of anything today for reasons I've already outlined.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  1:43:41 PM
Just a quick observation...DST Systems (DST) is breaking out over the $44.00 level of resistance to new 1 1/2 year highs. The next resistance level is $50-51.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  1:35:40 PM
Here's an OEX 15-minute chart with the rising wedge depicted, showing how the OEX has behaved with respect to that wedge: Link As I mentioned earlier, I don't have much faith in the OEX to behave according to TA today in the middle of this choppy zone, but that's what I see so far.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  1:35:24 PM
Another construction homebuilder play you may not be familiar with is Standard Pacific (SPF). The stock didn't see the same sell-off many of its peers did in Jan-February and today the stock is breaking out to new all-time highs above resistance.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  1:28:06 PM
The homebuilders are still in rally mode and Centex (CTX) is up another 2% on top of yesterday's breakout over the 50-dma. CTX may draw more buying interest than some of its peers due to its 2-for-1 split coming on March 15th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  1:25:53 PM
The Dow hit 10,600 again.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  1:24:31 PM
Aggressive bulls may want to take another look at Whole Foods Markets Inc (WFMI). The organic food grocery retailer is out performing its rival OATS with strong same-store sales. The February rally has broken out through the top of its rising channel and the recent dip to $74.00 is a bounce off the outside of the top of its channel. This could be an entry point for a move to $80 and beyond. Take note, its P&F price target has been met.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  1:17:22 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  1:12:44 PM
We're about to see if that Keltner resistance at 565.65-565.75 will hold, as the OEX is there now.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  1:02:58 PM
Ouch! SPX Corp (SPW) is down more than 20% after reporting earnings that only beat by a penny and warning for the rest of 2004. A wave of analysts downgrades followed. The bounce from its intraday lows is already fading as it erases 7 months of gains in one session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  1:00:29 PM
SOX.X intra-day chart on 10-minute intervals. Same chart we looked at last night, but intra-day look. Link

I added the WEEKLY S1 to this chart.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:56:40 PM
Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) is down 2.37% and struggling with support in the $76 region. Influencing the stock is news that CAT has signed an agreement to purchase a Swiss company Turbomach S.A.. Also pressuring the stock was a negative article from Barron's online discussing machinery stocks and their under performance when faced with rising interest rates.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  12:48:29 PM
After rising as high as 2914.69, the TRAN is now back below 2900, falling back below the 100-pma. The day is far from over, of course, and the TRAN isn't far below 2900, but keep a watch here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:47:20 PM
Lower day trade stop alert in Micron Tech (MU) $15.22 +0.26% to $15.31.

SOX.X 501.71 -1.59% ...

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:46:19 PM
A.G.Edwards sees the recent sell-off in Emulex Corp (ELX) as a buying opportunity with their new coverage of the stock at a "buy". ELX is trying to find support at the $23.00 level after the big sell-off a few days ago due to rumors of increased competition. Its P&F chart is pretty bearish with a nasty breakdown through rising support and a price target near $14.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:39:36 PM
SOX.X .... 501.95 -1.53%

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:36:32 PM
For those of you following the Martha trial, shares of Martha Stewart Living (MSO) are up more than 13% after the judge's decision this morning to drop the fraud charge.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  12:31:48 PM
That Keltner resistance at about 565.80, but descending, appears to be firming up now, with several Keltner lines cycling down to that area now. Usually, but not always, when that happens, the OEX will have more difficulty rising than it will falling, where the Keltner lines are spaced more thinly. It looks as if the OEX might bounce up first to retest that resistance, but for now, resistance looks strong in that area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:30:07 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  12:25:54 PM
THE "EVELYN INDICATOR"
Hello guys, just got back from working in Vegas for four days, and was riding down the elevator at the Flamingo with two little old ladies from Buffalo. One said to the other, " Oh Evelyn dear, we can afford to play the dollar machines, as you know the stock market is finally going to go back up, thanks to Mr. Greenspan." I could not help but to start laughing and crying at the same time, as I wished these two sweet ladies much luck, on their jaunt into the casino.

Hope this makes your day, as much as it made mine. George

That is really funny

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:24:51 PM
Hmm...current OI put WGO has unexpectedly surged 3.5% today on no news. Volume remains low but the gain today erases a good chunk of our early gains. Look for a failure at its 10-dma under $68.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  12:22:56 PM
When the OEX dropped, it dropped straight through the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, without stopping. It's coming back up now to retest the 60-minute versions, at 565.79 and 565.26, respectively. If it rises beyond that, to the 30-minute 100-pma at 565.94, it will also be retesting the broken support from the rising wedge it had been forming. We should always expect a retest of broken support or resistance, and normally would expect a rolldown at that retest, but this last year has taught us not to have great expectations of any formation break. That's what should happen, but be wary. As Jim said earlier with respect to the futures, this drop has just put the OEX back into a congestion zone from the last few days. As I've been saying over the last week, this is just a choppy zone and I don't think we can expect the OEX to behave in a classical or logical manner within this zone.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:22:05 PM
Bears should take note that current OI put play CHIR is failing again under its simple 10-dma. Furthermore it has broken below what has been very short-term support at $48.85.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:21:09 PM
QQQ Session low came at $36.27. Swing trade long stop is firm at $36.24.

I think that SOX WEEKLY S1 becomes important.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:20:31 PM
Shares of MMM, an OI put play, are getting closer to a new P&F sell signal. The stock is trading lower again and breaking down below very short-term support at $78.00. MMM is quickly approaching its early February low near $77.57.

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:18:34 PM
I can't find any catalyst to explain it but insurance stock and OI call play RNR has gapped higher this morning to a new all-time high above short-term resistance at $52.20-52.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:17:09 PM
SOX.X 501.72 -1.59% .... trying to firm

 
 
  James Brown   2/27/200,  12:15:35 PM
Current OI call play AHC is up another 2.19% to a new one-year high just as the OIX and OSX oil indices rise to hit new one-year highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  12:08:51 PM
Jeff, thanks for checking the components list of the BIX and letting everyone know that the earlier prices might not be correct.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  12:06:59 PM
Here's the first chart I posted today, updated to show what's happening based on the two formations I detailed on the daily chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:05:15 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 535.50 +0.36% ... whatever the problem was earlier, looks to have been corrected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  12:02:21 PM
SOX.X 500.94 -1.76% ... session low so far has been 498.75

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:59:11 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 499.74 -1.98% ... WEEKLY S1 is 498.56.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:57:25 AM
The OEX did not steady but instead did begin that cascading fall toward 563.70, where the 15-minute Keltner channel suggested it would next find support. It started a bounce 0.30 north of that next support, but it's not good news that the OEX didn't make much of an attempt to steady at mid-channel support. The five-minute chart shows next Keltner resistance gathering at 565.14-565.34, but descending, and next Keltner support at 563.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:53:59 AM
Day trade short alert .... Micron tech (MU) $15.20 (bid) here, stop $15.35, target $14.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:53:21 AM
TRIN is at 1.49 as I type, falling back from the high achieved a few minutes ago, but still bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:50:33 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:45:43 AM
The OEX fifteen-minute OEX chart says it's time for the OEX to steady now and attempt a bounce. If it doesn't, then matters are more bearish than they've seemed, because that suggests a cascading fall down toward 563.70, the next support on that fifteen-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:43:39 AM
The OEX is now attempting a downside break out of the bearish rising wedge, although I'm almost as skeptical of that as I was of the upside break. A longer-term ascending trendline on the daily chart now crosses at about yesterday's low, so a downside break will hit support as quickly as the upside break hit resistance. The only difference is that bearish rising wedges are supposed to break to the downside, so that's why I'm almost as skeptical, but not quite.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:40:42 AM
TRIN now at 1.21. I'm glad Jane taught us to watch for breaks above or below FH highs or lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:36:48 AM
By the time I could upload that chart on my 11:32 post, the picture had changed and we do know that the upside break on the OEX was a trap, as I was suggesting it might be. Remember days when we've had traps to the upside and traps to the downside? That sometimes happens when choppy days can be expected. Be careful out there. If you were enticed into bullish plays, you probably want to see the OEX steady off here, at the weekly pivot or at central Keltner channel support, now at 566.20, or the 30- and 60-minute 100-pma's, at 565.82-566. Take your pick.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:32:47 AM
QQQ day trade exit alert ... $36.64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:32:43 AM
Here's an updated 60-minute OEX chart, showing how the OEX is progressing according to some formations I had noted on that chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:29:22 AM
SOX.X 405.01 -1.15%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:28:40 AM
QQQ .... Day trade exit alert if QQQ pop back to breakeven.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:27:36 AM
The OEX has broken out of the short-term symmetrical triangle on the five-minute chart, at the top of its climb. This may mean that the OEX will now gradually work its way down to mid-channel Keltner support, currently at 566.18 but rising, or even to bottom support, at 563.53. First, it may be due for a bounce up to retest that just-broken support, near 567.85-568.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:24:45 AM
Careful, bulls. The TRIN is still below 1.00, but has just broken above its FH high, and is currently at 0.92. Watch its trajectory today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:23:21 AM
The TRIN just touched its FH high of 0.87.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:22:52 AM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 1,013.12 +0.59% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:22:35 AM
The OEX is coiling up at the top of this morning's rise, although that coiling formation is almost at its apex now. There should soon be a breakout one direction or another. Old TA texts say that these coiling formations or symmetrical triangles lose their effectiveness if prices coil all the way to the apex before breaking out, but I remember reading some research about a year ago that proved otherwise. According to that research, they were just as effective if the breakout occurred near the apex. The OEX is threatening to break out of that formation to the downside as I type. If it does, that may mean the retreat to central Keltner-channel support has begun.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:21:05 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 349.77 -0.69% ... not sure this is correct. I have list of all components and they all show gains on the session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:19:00 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  11:17:13 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 506.79 -0.61% ... not showing much strength to help out a QQQ day trade bull are they?

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  11:15:50 AM
Bloomberg is reporting that the Judge in the Martha Stewart case has dismissed the securities fraud charges

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  11:14:40 AM
Earlier in the week, the BIX broke through an ascending trendline that had been in place since late January. I mentioned yesterday that since that time, the BIX had been hugging the underside of that broken support, getting turned back each time it approached it but holding above its 30-dma, too. Today, the BIX dropped below that 30-dma and below the 349-351 support zone, all the way to next support just above 348. It's bouncing now, but that bounce isn't doing anything so far to turn daily oscillators back up again, and it's still more than a point below the 30-dma. Those looking to this index for signs of strength/weakness on the OEX aren't seeing great signs of strength as yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:58:22 AM
According to Jeff's 5MRT system, the OEX created a daytrading buy signal when it climbed above 567.10, before it ever broke out of that rising wedge and just after it broke above the weekly pivot. It's already met its upside objective, which was just over 568.80. Unfortunately, that's not a big enough range to profit much on OEX plays, but I wasn't watching it with an aim to participate in a bullish play, but rather to measure how bullish/bearish the OEX's performance might be today. A fall back below 567.42 will confirm a lower high on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  10:53:31 AM
QQQ $36.84 +0.46% ... day trader would now like to see firming at $36.78-$36.80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  10:44:25 AM
Current put to call ratio .76, rising within neutral territory. The VXO is up to 14.56, showing the market paying more for puts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  10:43:37 AM
QQQ bullish entry alert $36.74 ... day trade long entry here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:38:44 AM
I don't like these tall candle shadows on the previous sixty-minute OEX candle and the current one, too. The OEX is getting slapped back every time it approaches the descending trendline off the 2/11 high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:36:12 AM
The OEX came all the way back to the top of the rising wedge, although it hasn't quite fallen back inside that formation yet. If it does, that's not a bullish action. If it's just re-establishing support, it could be. The TRIN is still not bearish. The advdec line, although retreating somewhat off its high, is still strongly positive. The five and fifteen-minute Keltner channels both show the OEX as overbought on a short-term basis and vulnerable to a fall toward mid-channel support, near 565.80, but it's possible for overbought indices to become even more overbought. I sound as if I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but if I am, it's because I feel that the OEX is in the middle of a zone where trading might be expected to be choppy, and it's not a zone that entices me to enter.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  10:30:32 AM
QQQ $36.80 +0.38% ... session high came at $36.94 and this little pullback has been to $34.76.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:24:41 AM
The TRIN is still in bullish/neutral territory, but it's at its morning high. Watch its trajectory.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  10:23:22 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:18:48 AM
The TRAN has climbed over 2900 and now faces the 100-pma at 2908.62 and the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline at 2919.27, with the TRAN currently at 2908.83.

Gains should slow here for the TRAN as it battles several important moving averages and retracement levels, but its open at/above the 10- and 21-dma's gave it a boost this morning, leapfrogging over that first resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:13:07 AM
At about 569.40, the OEX will hit the descending trendline off the 2/11 high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:08:01 AM
The OEX has hit upper Keltner channel resistance. This is one of those points at which traders in bullish plays, perhaps on an upside breakout of the rising wedge, should begin following the OEX up closely with their stops as it's possible that the OEX could retreat back to central Keltner support, but also possible that these channels are giving a valid breakout signal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  10:05:44 AM
Opening p/c ratio .72, neutral.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:04:14 AM
TRIN at 0.55.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  10:02:50 AM
The OEX is breaking out of that "bearish" rising wedge to the upside, but be careful since the first reaction is not always the final one. Keltner channels show next strong resistance at 568.24 if the OEX can tug free of the current level and the descending trendline off the recent highs is at about 569.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  10:01:50 AM
Day trade long alert .... for the QQQ $36.85 +0.44% .... on intra-day pullback to $36.74, stop $36.64, target $37.03.

On 5-MRT, BLUE #6 for today is $37.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:59:55 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,615.55 +0.33% ... right at our DAILY R1

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  9:59:04 AM
Chicago PMI = 63.6 , (est 63.0, last 65.9)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:57:21 AM
Here's what's happening with that rising wedge on the OEX 60-minute chart so far today: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:56:51 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,896.45 +0.16% Link .... edging above its falling 21-day SMA of 2,893

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:54:45 AM
General Electric (GE) $32.83 +0.45% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:54:13 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $26.52 +0.07% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  9:52:30 AM
A weekend repo of 3.75B just announced from the Fed, with no expiries for a net addition in that amount.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:51:40 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 567.18 +0.29% ... session high and challenges yesterday's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:49:45 AM
If Jane were here, she might be warning us that the TRIN is in bullish-to-neutral territory but rising.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  9:47:22 AM
Consumer Sentiment = 94.4 ,(est 94.0, last 93.1)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:44:31 AM
The OEX is trying to push above the weekly pivot and historical resistance, but is having trouble doing so, so far. As a warning, remember that the first reaction after an economic release is not always the final one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:37:04 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 508.97 -0.17% ... session high was 511.02

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:37:03 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 566.04 to 566.57, so far turning down just ahead of the weekly pivot and historical resistance. I agree with Jonathan and Keene about waiting for the release of economic numbers in a few minutes, especially since the OEX has not broken out of the rising wedge, moved significantly off central Keltner support or the 30- and 60-minute 100-pma's, or otherwise signaled strength or weakness.

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  9:24:31 AM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Bernanke
Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role? Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/27/200,  9:23:59 AM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Olson
A Regulator's View of Emerging Issues in Community Banking Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:22:03 AM
Here's the Nikkei's daily chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/27/200,  9:19:14 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  9:10:23 AM
Here's what I see on the OEX daily chart: Link What happens in between? The OEX is in the middle of the bearish/bullish markers on that daily chart, just above mid-channel support on five- and fifteen-minute Keltner charts, under the weekly pivot, and sitting on the 30- and 60-minute 100-pma's. By every measure I use to watch the charts, the OEX is in the middle of a likely choppy range, with futures indicating that markets will rise from those middle-of-the-chart levels. The 60-minute chart shows a possible bearish rising wedge that should break--presumably to the downside according to classic technical analysis but to the upside according to recent experience-by the end of today's trading but likely earlier than that. Those bearish rising wedges just haven't been working for a year, but here are the numbers to watch: an upside break will come at a move above 567.30 and a downside break on a move below about 565.50, depending on how many candle shadows are included in that lower trendline. Before jumping into a trade, though, on either a downside or upside break of that rising wedge, take a look at the daily chart again, because strong support or resistance is not far ahead of any such break.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  8:33:06 AM
Chain deflator 1.2%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  8:31:08 AM
8:30am U.S. Q4 GDP REVISED ON HIGHER INVESTMENTS, INVENTORY

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  8:30:41 AM
8:30am U.S. 2003 GDP 3.1%, FASTEST SINCE 2000

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  8:30:12 AM
GDP 4.1%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/27/200,  7:56:36 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of the preliminary GDP for Q4, est. +3.8%, and chain deflator, est. 1.1%. A 9:45 is preliminary Michigan sentiment, est. 94, and the Chicago PMI, est. 63.5.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/27/200,  7:10:50 AM
Good morning. The Japanese government released much anticipated figures on household spending, unemployment, and production on Friday. Seventy thousand jobs were added, but unemployment also rose to 5% from the previous 4.9% as more people sought jobs. January's production rose 3.4%, a bigger-than-expected rise, and a primary reason cited for the boost given to the Nikkei in Friday's trading. Spending by households headed by a salaried worker increased 4.2%. That's the first gain in five months. February's consumer prices declined 0.2% from the year-ago level, however, hinting that deflation may remain a threat.

Under the influence of those numbers and a weaker yen that benefited exporters, the Nikkei gapped higher and then soared, hitting 11,000 before the end of the morning session and then climbing further in the afternoon session. The Nikkei closed up by 226.63 points or 2.10%, at 11,041.92, about 28 points off the high of the day. That's its highest close since January 23, when it had closed at 11,069.01. Auto stocks, banking stocks, and technology exporters were mostly higher. In company-specific news, a newspaper reported that Fujitsu would build a new semi-conductor plant, and the stock eased 0.8%. Cosmetics company Kanebo rose after company execs and board members revealed that they would retire in late March. Softbank rebounded from its recent drubbing.

Other Asian bourses traded mostly higher, although there were a few exceptions. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.86%. With South Korea's industrial output rising a higher-than-expected 1.1% in February, the Kospi gained 2.15%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, however, up only 0.07 points or 0.00%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.70% and China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.22%.

European bourses mostly trade higher, too, with currency issues also credited with the improving markets. As high-ranking officials in EU countries call for the ECB to cut rates, sometimes countered by ECB officials noting recent strong growth, and as German Chancellor Schroeder heads to the U.S. to meet with President Bush, the euro eased against the dollar. As happened in Asia, auto stocks benefited, although Fiat was an exception after its earnings report showed a greater-than-expected loss. The pharmaceuticals continued to draw attention today, with mixed results. Novartis suffered in early trading from speculation it may be the white knight for Aventis, Roche and Altana climbed after receiving approvals for drugs, and Spanish Zeltia fell after disappointing earnings. In other news, a newspaper reported that France may impose a tax on revenues of mobile phone operators Orange and SFR to renew licenses due to expire in 2006, on top of a levy that might be tripled. France Telecom owns Orange and Vivendi Universal has a controlling interest in SFR. Vivendi was flat, but France Telecom was rising.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 26.70 points or 0.59%, to 4542.60. The CAC 40 was up 37.74 points or 1.02%, to 3752.23. The DAX was up 30.90 points or 0.77%, to 4038.71.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  11:40:15 PM
Short Interest data is now available at the NASDAQ site.

To get short interest from the NASDAQ site (www.nasdaq.com) simply enter a symbol of a stock in their "get up to 10 quotes" box, then click the "Flash Quotes" button.

A refreshed browser page should be created. Click the scroll down button that contains the words "FlashQuotes" (a pull down menu of categories should be seen) and select short interest.

Shorts had built a nice little 5.76 million share short interest (12-month high) with 4.08 days to cover in Darden Restaurants (DRI) $23.40 +5.69% Link .

Shorts are also building a nice 3.78 million share short interest (12-month high) with 7.62 days to cover in Ciber, Inc. (CBR) $9.53 +2.36% Link

Shorts have been covering in Microsoft (MSFT) $26.50 -0.74% Link with short interest falling by 50 million shares (not all that much) after short interest peaked at 196.4 million at 12/15/03.

Good Gravy! ... short interest swelled to 43,085 from 3,300 in shares of Industrials Services of America (IDSA) $25.31 +27.18% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/26/200,  9:45:47 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   2/26/200,  9:27:54 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives