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  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  6:24:11 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  5:20:13 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  4:31:54 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $52.35 -3.19% .... We noticed that Linda is not on Market Monitor today, would you be so kind and give us your comments on TASR for todays action and prepare for tomorrow.

I'd have to be near-term bearish on TASR as long as the stock remains below the $56.00 level. I really think that to see upside, its going to have to be the greater amount of short covering to get the stock higher. I currently have a retracement (near-term) bracket on the stock from $47.60-$67.75, which has 19.1% at $51.44, 38.2% at $55.29, 50% at $57.68, 61.8% at $60.05 and 80.9% at $63.90.

Public float looks to be owned between today's low and $56.00. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  4:20:43 PM
XLNX - Update - Q1 revenues are expected to be up +9% to +10% and are at the high end of the prior range.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  4:18:16 PM
News Flash - EU is offering Microsoft a settlement for the current antitrust case.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  4:08:57 PM
STX - Seagate - update - January demand was weaker than historical norms. February as expected but guiding to low end of previous estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:58:08 PM
Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) 591.42 -0.55% Link .... couldn't quite get a new high at that 600.00 level today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:52:52 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 655.59 -0.37% ... I thought I heard CNBC report that homebuilders were "notably weak" in today's trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:50:00 PM
Mamma.com (MAMA) $10.45 +158% ... decent little "pop" in today's session. If stock didn't have any short interest prior to today (and it didn't look like it did at 4,615 shares short), I'm sure it does after today's session.

Public float is 6.3 million shares, and MAMA's turned just over 63.1 million.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  3:43:26 PM
Mid quarter updates after the close include XLNX and STX. XLNX previously raised estimates and STX previously warned.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:23:39 PM
North American Telecom (XTC.X) 650.02 +0.28% ... session high and yesterday's high. Looks to test recent 52-weeker of 657.13.

SBC $25.20 +3.91% looks to be the driver.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  3:14:21 PM
45 minutes to closing bell...Sector update

Winners:
OSX oil services: +0.24%
barely in the green...IUX insurance, XNG natural gas, BTK biotech, SOX semiconductors and NWX networking.

(biggest) Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -2.90%
XAL airlines: -2.42%
OIX oil index: -1.24%
INX Internet index: -1.38%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:10:05 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  3:01:35 PM
UFAB $10.74 +7.18% ... that pullback low was $10.01. IF long, would raise stop to break even.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  2:58:13 PM
Traders looking to buy the dip may want to keep an eye on CDWC. Shares surged very strongly on big volume yesterday to breakout over resistance at $70.00. The pull back today suggest traders might get a chance to buy a dip back toward $70.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:48:45 PM
Cancel day trade long entry alert for UFAB at this point. If long, would currently have stop just under $9.66.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:45:00 PM
UFAB $10.52 +4.99% .... post-profile high was $11.10. easing back from there.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  2:42:14 PM
Bulls may want to take another look at Ambac Financial (ABK). The stock recently broke out from its sideways consolidation between $75 and $77.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:36:30 PM
UFAB $10.87 .... would raise stop to $9.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:35:54 PM
UFAB $10.80 +7.98% ... shoot!

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  2:34:43 PM
Bears may want to keep an eye on VRTS for a breakdown under support at $30.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:34:03 PM
UFAB $10.33 ... I never got the fill at $9.84. I'll follow as if filled at the offer of $9.90, but can't count trade in my book unless I get a trade at $9.84.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  2:29:40 PM
Aggressive bull Day trade long alert ... UNIFAB (UFAB) $9.84 here, stop $9.48, target $11.50.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/2/2004,  2:11:30 PM
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that if China were to let its currency float immediately, as many U.S. companies and politicians want, it could weaken that country's banking system and threaten the world economy. However, treasury secretary John Snow has steadily ratcheted up pressure on China to float its exchange rate, but without success.

China pegs the value of its currency, the yuan, to the dollar via strict controls on the ability of local and foreign investors to exchange yuan for dollars. As imports from China have surged, U.S. companies have complained that the peg has kept the yuan artificially cheap and given Chinese companies an unfair advantage in the U.S. Greenspan says the banking system can operate that way only if depositors don't pull out their money, he said. "Many in China fear that removal of capital controls that restrict the ability of domestic investors to invest abroad and to sell or to purchase foreign currency, which is a necessary step to allow a currency to float freely, could cause an outflow of deposits from Chinese banks, destabilizing the system."

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  2:04:07 PM
We've noted in the past how Best Buy (BBY) has been channeling between $50 and $55. Shares just peaked at $54.67 and are rolling over again. Nimble trades might want to try and scalp the next drop back towards $50 and its 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  1:56:58 PM
I'm just happy the Martha Stewart trial is almost over. That's what I'm tired of hearing about.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  1:56:23 PM
I do not know about anybody else but I am getting really tired of this constant Disney chatter. You would think it was the only stock in the market. It only has a market cap of $55B but you would think it had a cap 10 times that big for all the press the fighting has produced.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  1:53:22 PM
Another financial that bulls may want to keep an eye on is Bank of America (BAC). The stock has been consolidating under resistance at $83.00 for the last six weeks. The (slow) trend of higher lows looks like it will eventually breakout.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  1:49:13 PM
The XBD broker-dealer index remains one of the few sectors in the green today. Looking over some of the well-known stocks in the group I see that Bear Stearns (BSC) is currently holding its position above resistance at $88.00. A number of them look like potential bullish candidates worthy of the watch list. Merrill Lynch (MER) is just under resistance at $63.00. Morgan Stanley (MWD) is just under resistance at $62.00. Goldman Sachs (GS) looks good and bulls could use a trigger above $108.00 to open a play.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  1:28:51 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection -- Part III

With so many different exercise prices and different time periods, just how does a trader begin to choose the best vertical spread which reflects the expected directional movement and also allows time for the underlying change to result in a profit from those expectations? Here are some thoughts:

Options have a limited lifespan with a fixed expiration date, thus a trader who wants to use options to take advantage of an expected market move must first determine the appropriate time period. Once a trader decides on an expiration month in which to take his directional position, he must decide which specific spread is best. That is, he must decide which strike prices are most effective, based on how bullish or bearish the underlying issue will be in the target time-frame. Basically, you must determine if there is "extreme" confidence in the upcoming movement and therefore a willingness to take an aggressive directional position? Or, are you less certain and only willing to take a conservative position? Among experienced traders, the most common approach is to focus on in-the-money options for the long position and in- or at-the-money options for the short position. But, with so many other positions available, how is the trader going to choose the best value? I'll try to make that question the subject of an upcoming educational narrative. Good Luck!

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  1:25:04 PM
Today's candle on shares of Harman Intl Industries (HAR) looks pretty bearish. The stock broke out over the $80 level of resistance to hit $82.00 (a new all-time high) but couldn't hold it and is now approaching the $78 mark. HAR may retest support at its 50-dma near $75-76.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  1:22:29 PM
DHR continues to suffer under its 50-dma and the short-term trend of lower highs remains in place. This week's Monday-Tuesday failed rally near it 50-dma and the $92 level could be foreshadowing a larger move down but it will take a trade under the $88.00 mark to create a new sell signal on its P&F chart.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  1:16:53 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection -- Part II

At expiration, a vertical spread will have a minimum value of zero, if both options are out-of-the-money, and a maximum value (the amount between the strike prices) if both options are in-the-money. Thus, a vertical spread at expiration will have a value somewhere between zero and the difference between the strike prices, so a trader can expect the price of such a spread to be somewhere within this range. If the trader wants to do a vertical spread, he has essentially four choices:

Bullish: call-debit (bull-call) or put-credit (bull-put) spread.
Bearish: call-credit (bear-call) or put-debit (bear-put) spread.

Regardless of whether a vertical spread consists of call or put, when a trader buys the lower strike price and sells the higher strike price, the position is bullish; when a trader buys the higher strike price and sells the lower strike price, the position is bearish.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  1:12:29 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium Selling -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection

(condensed) Ray, Pardon the "back to basics question. You mentioned "vertical spreads" in one of the previous posts. I know about credit spreads (I do bull-puts) but what else does this group include? RW

Hello RW, When a spread trader focuses initially on the direction (bullish or bearish) of the underlying stock, he should look for a strategy where the directional characteristics of the play are the primary concern (volatility/premium disparity is of secondary importance). These types of spreads are better known as "vertical" spreads. A vertical spread always consists of a long (purchased) option and a short (sold) option, where both options are of the same type (both calls or both puts) and expire at the same time. Vertical spreads remain directional (bullish or bearish) no matter how market conditions change.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  1:10:37 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:53:07 PM
Bearish day trade target alert .... CSCO $23.28

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  12:52:49 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium Selling -- Bullish stocks on a bearish day?

Looking through the current portfolio issues, there are a number of premium-selling candidates "in the green" despite the broad retreat in equities. These include: Amylin (NASDAQ:AMLN), American Pharmaceutical Partners (NASDAQ:APPX), Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN), Interdigital Communications (NASDAQ:IDCC), Onyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ONXX), Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) and surprisingly, the recent loser in Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:44:56 PM
QQQ $36.88 -0.45% .... sitting here at correlative pivot matrix DAILY Pivot (36.86) and MONTHLY Pivot (36.86).

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:41:47 PM
Bank of America also upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) to a "buy" and raised their price target from $32 to $37 this morning. TXN, the largest producer of chips for mobile phones, is up 1.77% to $31.57. The stock has five-week old resistance at $32.00 overshadowed by additional resistance at $34.00. Noteworthy is the $32 level also happens to be resistance on TXN's P&F chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:39:51 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.38 -0.63% .... lower stop to $23.44.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  12:39:47 PM
Spread/Combos & Straddles -- New Winner: Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV)

Our recent debit straddle in HOV reached a closing debit near $10 this morning, offering up to a $3 profit on $7 invested in less than two weeks. That's an excellent gain, however traders who want to remain in the position might consider "riding the trend" as it can be a very profitable technique for straddle candidates that turn into directional plays. Obviously, it involves additional risk so think long and hard about taking the current credit before considering this approach.

The strategy involves monitoring the underlying issue for a breakout or key reversal through a technical support or resistance level. (In this case, it appears HOV has broken through near-term resistance at $80.) When the new trend has been positively identified, the lower priced options (losing side) are sold along with one-half of the higher priced options (profitable side). The remaining position is held until a reasonable profit target is met and downside protection is maintained with a trailing stop. Experienced traders like this technique because it is based on known technical trends and the action generally occurs near the position's break-even points. When one of these points is reached, two simple trades lower the overall cost basis while retaining a high probability of eventual profit.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:37:08 PM
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded a boatload of energy stocks to "buy" today. Those upgraded are: PPP, TLM, UCL, XTO, NXY, CHK, THX, PXD.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:36:47 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  12:34:20 PM
Text of Greenspan speech: Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:32:06 PM
The INX Internet index may be one of the worst performers today but it's not EBAY's fault. Shares of EBAY are only down 49 cents to $68.74. We're still waiting for the bullish breakout over resistance at $70.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  12:30:47 PM
Greenspan comments. China may overheat if money supply growth does not slow. The dollar weakness should help contain the current account gap.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:26:06 PM
Observation... Both Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Carnival Cruises (CCL) are at or near new four-year highs. Shares of RCL have been up five of the last six sessions.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:23:16 PM
Another birthday today is the U.S. Homeland Security Department. (It turns 1 year old today)

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:21:42 PM
Sector update...

Winners:
XBD broker-dealers: +0.61%
XNG natural gas: +0.45%
SOX semiconductors: +0.29%
BTK biotech index: +0.23%

(biggest) Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -2.45%
XAL airlines: -1.79%
DJUSHB homebuilders: -1.10%
INX Internet index: -0.90%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:18:53 PM
Day trade lower bearish stop alert ... in CSCO to break-even

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  12:18:14 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Market Movers: Laserscope (NASDAQ:LSCP)

Shares of LSCP are "on the move" today, up $1.48 at $25.30, after a leading analyst in the micro-cap market, Taglich Brothers, upgraded the issue to a "buy" with a 12-month target price of $36. The research note said "we believe there is still room for further price appreciation when you consider the potential of the company’s urology products...the company’s urology segment will grow at such a rapid rate that it will constitute the majority of total revenue as early as 2006." Traders who like the near-term outlook for this unique stock might consider a bullish diagonal spread (JUN-20C/APR-25C) or a front-month vertical spread with the short option at $25.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:18:12 PM
Crossing the wires...ex-Worldcom CFO Scott Sullivan pleads guilty on 3 counts of fraud. Sullivan was one of the last hold outs in a handful of Worldcom executives that the government was pursuing in the $11 billion accounting scandal.

CEO Bernie Ebbers is expected to be charged later today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:07:59 PM
Day trade short alert ... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.52 here, stop $23.65, target $23.28.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:06:33 PM
For those of you with young children Happy 100th Birthday to Dr. Suess!

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/2/2004,  12:05:44 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Market Movers: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN)

After our (multiple) big winner in Sepracor (NASDAQ:SEPR) yesterday, it's hard to get excited about a 7% gain but ALXN is definitely one of the more bullish stocks early in today's session. Shares are up $1.55 at $24.45 and there is no "public" explanation for the surge in buying volume. Traders who like the outlook for the issue might consider a "premium selling" position at the $22.50 strike in March. A long-term diagonal spread (MAY-20C/MAR-25C) also offers excellent upside potential with reasonable downside risk.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  12:05:08 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:03:55 PM
RJR suddenly putting together two back to back gains (actually it's three in a row but Friday's move was pretty small). RJR is following larger rival MO, which is up six out of the last seven sessions. Both stocks broke out from a three-month consolidation pattern last week.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  12:00:16 PM
The rally continues for OI call play in Anthem (ATH). The stock is now up six days in a row. Traders looking for a new entry point may want to wait for a dip back toward $85.00.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/2/2004,  11:59:41 AM
Putnam Investments fired four employees, including Karnig Durgarian the chief of operations for investor services, after discovering they failed to alert and reimburse a 401(k) client who lost $1.5 million in 2001 because the investment firm failed to immediately invest the client's funds.

Putnam Chief Executive Ed Haldeman said in January 2001 Putnam took over management of a 401(k) plan with more than $1 billion in assets from a competitor. The money should have been invested in Putnam funds the day after the conversion but the investment was delayed by a day and the client lost money because the markets went up the day the money was out of the market. Mr. Haldeman said the executives were fired because they failed to notify and reimburse the client.

 
 
  James Brown   3/2/2004,  11:57:55 AM
OI call play AHC suffered some early morning weakness today but traders bought the dip at $65.00 and the stock is back in positive territory.

SLB, another call play, also slipped lower earlier in the session but shares held strong at the $66 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  11:09:43 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  11:05:27 AM
Spot Gold hit hard suddendly to $392.30

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  10:29:47 AM
Niagara (NIAG) $8.80 +24.82% ... monitoring for a potential day trade long. Stock traded a morning high of $9.98.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  10:25:05 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/2/2004,  10:09:37 AM
The opening put to call ratio was .49, showing extreme predominance of call volume. VXO is up slightly to 14.32, but shows that premium is being paid to buy those calls- a cautionary indicator for bulls, just as the 1+ p/c readings yesterday signalled caution for bears.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  10:05:28 AM
Sell Prog. Prem. Alert

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  10:01:56 AM
Ciber (CBR) $10.00 +2.66% Link .... breaking above 2-month resistance.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/2/2004,  9:59:39 AM
Challenger Layoff Report = 77,250 -34% (last 117,556 +26%)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/2/2004,  9:55:47 AM
The Fed has announced a 6B overnight repo, for a net drain of 5B.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  9:45:11 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 517.69 +0.89% ... MU +3.8%, TSM +2.57%, NSM +2.27%, TXN +2.19%, AMD +2.14% .... STM -0.42%, MOT -1.16%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  9:41:34 AM
UNIFAB Intl. (UFAB) $13.00 +28% ... stock is "hot" again this morning. Was up more than 200% yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  9:34:00 AM
Gemstar-TV Guide (GMST) $8.06 +7.4% ... higher after it and EchoStar (DISH) $36.86 -1.2% announced a longer-term non-exclusive patent license and distribution agreement. The transaction includes a one-time payment by DISH of $190 million in cash for DISH to utilize GMST's intellectual property and technology.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/2/2004,  9:33:57 AM
Increasing exports and shrinking inventories have U.S. manufacturers saying they are finally starting to hire again. However, economists caution that the apparent turnaround, indicated in a bellwether survey of manufacturing managers, is in its early stages. They note that gains would offset only a small portion of the three million manufacturing jobs lost since August 2000.

The net loss of 2.4 million jobs under President Bush, many of them outsourced to cheaper overseas locations, has become a major issue in the election so even a small reversal in hiring could help the Bush administration make a case that the recovery is finally benefiting ordinary Americans, not just corporate profits.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  9:25:44 AM
Mamma.com (MAMA) $4.05 Link ... jumping to $6.18 in pre-market trade after company reported Q4 earnings of $799,703, or $0.09 per share, compared with a loss of $33,756, or $0.01 per share for the same period in 2002.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/2/2004,  9:22:16 AM
The Fed has a big 11B overnight repo expiring today. We await the 10AM announcement to tell us whether there will be a net inflow or outflow of intervention money today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/2/2004,  9:18:29 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/2/2004,  7:52:46 AM
A quiet day for economic reports today- we await February auto sales for February at noon, est. 5.5M, and truck sales est. 7.8M.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/1/2004,  9:16:59 PM
Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 11,316.61 +0.4% Link ... seeing some early session follow through from yesterday's gains. Session low/high has been 11,304.45-11,386.48, and would have PnF chart getting an additional 2 "X" at 11,300 and 11,350 for today's (Tuesday's) trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/1/2004,  9:12:54 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   3/1/2004,  7:32:14 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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