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  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  5:50:18 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  4:03:39 PM
Bullish swing trade stop alert ... should be stopped out of Sun Communities (SUI) $40.81 -1.73% just prior to close.

Stock traded 52-week high of $42.00, then it seemed as if all traders pulled any bids, not only in SUI, but many stocks.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  3:58:38 PM
Swing trade short alert .... Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $36.25 here, stop $38 (to begin), target $34.00.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:55:00 PM
Those in bearish OEX trades have a decision to make again today. Hold over or take profits? That may depend on your entry, your risk tolerance, your time frame, whether your account is overcommitted to the bearish positions and dozens of other factors. Those who took only partial profits yesterday and elected to hold over today should be patting themselves on the backs. Those who entered on a break of 557.36 today should be, too. At least partial profits may be a good idea here, too, at the day's close. Ahead of tomorrow's opening, it's difficult to predict what might happen next. A bounce should come along at some point, but I've been fearing such a bounce ever since 559.50 was hit. That would be a countertrend bounce now, I think, and maybe you're prepared to weather such a bounce, but don't let gains turn into a loss.

Those who might be in long positions, although I haven't suggested any long positions, should make wise decisions, too. Just because markets are oversold doesn't mean they can't grow even more oversold. Just because a bounce should come along doesn't mean it will. We've seen some potentially ominous developments today.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:40:03 PM
Jim has suggested watching the 78-ema on the OEX rather than the 72-ema I have been watching. Since his suggestion last week, I've been watching both, and both were the reasons that I warned of a minimal downside target in the 553 zone for today. That 78-ema is at 551.57, with the OEX having reached a low of 552.01. We're seeing all kinds of support levels violated today, but this is the zone that worried me earlier today when the OEX was first breaking through 557.36. Be careful, those in bearish plays, to protect profits. The OEX now has a downside target near 541-542 (based on the double top), and although it felt as if it were going to reach that target today, it's unlikely to do so without some bounces along the way.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:34:43 PM
The TRAN has now fallen through the H&S neckline on its daily chart, and created a new P&F sell signal. Its 200-dma is below at 2738.71, with the TRAN at 2788.17 as I type.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:30:38 PM
Well, I hope there were some gunslinger types out there and you took that OEX trade. Be careful now, as the OEX is nearing the maximum downside that I would have suggested for today.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:27:17 PM
How I know there's a real market turn in the works: It's not the identical three black crows the reader mentioned. It's not the VIX break above its 130-ema or the descending trendline or even the possible break above the early February high, if that should occur. It's the fact that all through the last year, despite my protests, some labeled me as bearish, and then I've been posting an OEX daily chart for weeks with green bars across it, saying go short below the bottom green bar (confirmation of the double top) and long above it (double top), and I didn't believe it when it happened! That's a good contrarian signal, don't you think? Actually, I still don't entirely believe it and I'm still concerned about the deeply oversold conditions on the intraday charts. Note that the OEX is hitting a descending trendline drawn across the lows from 2/13 to 2/20 and 2/24.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:16:56 PM
The VIX has now broken above the daily 130-ema and the top trendline depicted in my 15:07 post.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:15:22 PM
After my 14:43 post, the OEX never quite made it up to the 557.71 level I suggested as a rollover bearish entry for the gunslinger types, hitting a subsequent high of only 557.30, so I'm not sure if any took a bearish entry based on that suggestion, especially since I ringed it around with all sorts of worries. If any did enter or if some held over after yesterday's suggested entry, be particularly watchful as 553-553.50 is approached, if the OEX continues to fall. This zone marks the 1/13 low as well as the 72-ema I've been watching, currently at 553.20.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  3:13:50 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  3:07:32 PM
Reader Question: Following your suggestion here [to use the time today to check out new indicators and technical analysis tools] and looking at candlestick patterns. Unless something changes before the close, all of the major indexes appear to be posting what is known as identical three black crows. A rare and particularily bearish indicator according to Nison. Also, the VXO looks to close above its downtrend channel. Along with all of the other negatives, this looks rather ominous. Your thoughts please. Thanks.

Response: Thanks for the reminder to mention the volatility indices. Yesterday, I posted a VIX daily chart with the 100/130-ema's imposed, showing how those moving averages had turned back the VIX on each approach over the last six months. Today, the VIX is testing those MA's and the descending trendline that has been in place since November. Here's an updated, annotated chart: Link

The presence of a bearish candlestick pattern such as the three identical black crows (three candlesticks, each opening at about the closing level of the previous day's close, each closing lower than the previous one) perhaps hints that the volatility-index breakout is imminent and that the other leg down in the markets is, too, but there's a caveat. Well, probably more than one, but here's this one: the identical three black crows pattern or any reversal pattern is more important if seen at the top of a rise rather than in the middle of a consolidation pattern. Our indices have been consolidating for a couple of months now, or at least the OEX has been, so that the identical three black crows on the OEX just takes it from the top to the bottom (well, a little below the bottom) of the consolidation pattern. If I'm remembering my Nison correctly, he doesn't take these reversal patterns as seriously when they occur in a congestion zone.

My take on it all? This action isn't good, but there's still the potential for at least a short-term and countertrend bounce. The volatility indices aren't always good market-timing tools as breakouts can occur days before the next leg begins. I think the OEX in particular is just hanging on to the cliff edge by the first joints of its fingertips here, but it's kinda hanging on, isn't it? I could see a straight drop from here, although I'd then expect it to steady somewhere between 552-554, but I could see that bounce up to resistance begin here, too, so I just don't have a great take on what's going to happen next. Sometimes I do; sometimes I don't. This time, I don't. The actual downside target of the double-top formation, by the way, is somewhere in the 541-542 range, but I'd sure expect a bounce or two along the way.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  2:59:16 PM
Only thing I see with a gain as it relates to index is the dollar.

Has Treasury Secretary Snow said anything about the U.S. in favor of a strong dollar today?

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  2:43:50 PM
I'm afraid of a bounce at any moment, but I've typed up a couple of posts suggesting bearish entries on the "trend is your friend" basis and on the break below the confirmation level of the double-top formation at 557.36. I just haven't been able to bear to post them, however, something staying my hand. If I were inclined to do that (although now I'd at least wait for a bounce to and rollover from 557.71, to the Keltner line that has been turning down OEX advances for the last few hours or 559.03, the top of the shortest-term Keltner channel) or if I were still in a bearish play from yesterday, I'd certainly look to tighten stops or set a profit target at 553.50, because of the near proximity of the 72-ema at that level. I'm still just as afraid of a bounce as I was earlier, however, and present this information for the benefit of those who are determined to try something rather than as a suggestion for all traders to attempt. Although I'm afraid of that bounce at any moment and although the pent-up oversold pressure may push the OEX higher if such a bounce occurs, I'd consider a long play on a bounce a countertrend play at this moment and wouldn't feel comfortable suggesting it. I would not feel personally comfortable with any of these plays.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  2:21:48 PM
Wrigley (WWY) $59.77 +3.15% Link Jeff, I've been looking to be long some defensive (i.e Food/Beverage,oils) plays, and I just noticed WWY has broken out of the top of a 2 year consolidation. Any thoughts ? I bought June 60 calls on the breakout at 59 this morning.

I like the trade. Today's trade at $59 gets the stock back on a buy signal, where bullish vertical count currently builds at $68. I also like the way a retracement ($52.00 to initial bullish vertical count of $68) has stock trading nicely within the 19.1% ($55.06) and 38.2% ($58.11), where nice move higher is found today.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  2:14:09 PM
For the last few weeks, I would have told you that I would have automatically suggested a bearish OEX entry on any drop of the OEX below 557 and maybe I should have done just that, but I couldn't bring myself to make that suggestion this afternoon for a couple of reasons. The OEX has been far oversold on a Keltner channel basis for a long time now, since early yesterday morning. While the OEX has hugged the oversold or overbought (more usually overbought) levels for up to two days, the longer it hugs that boundary, the more likely it is to bounce and the more likely it is to bounce to upper Keltner channel resistance and not just mid-Keltner channel resistance. That means that I'd rather see a bounce up to test that Keltner resistance, the 120-minute 100/130-pma's, and the violated triangle support on the daily chart, and then a rollover at that resistance. That entry just may not present itself, however. The OEX may just drop quickly instead now that it dropped out of that "b" distribution pattern on the 120-minute chart, but it sure seems overdue for a countertrend bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  2:09:00 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) testing lower end of our bullish regression channel, as well as its rising 50-day SMA. With stronger indices being pulled lower the past couple of sessions, RUT.X at near-term important level of support.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  2:01:26 PM
The TRAN has hit a new swing low on the daily chart, dropping below the 2/04 low of 2815.66. It hasn't yet confirmed the H&S pattern by dropping through the neckline, nor has it created the new P&F sell signal by dropping below 2800, but it's approaching both: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  1:52:56 PM

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  1:48:06 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:42:45 PM
I've mentioned that I've been playing around with several uncommon ema's on the daily charts of the indices lately because there appears to be a strong correlation in the trading patterns of some of the indices and some of these hidden averages. For example, I found some congruence in some swing lows and the 72-ema on some tech stocks and indices and a few other indices, too. That 72-ema didn't appear to be as good a fit for the Dow, however, and so I spent yesterday backtesting several other ema's, finding a pretty strong correlation between the Dow's behavior and the 65-ema. I've posted a couple of charts today showing that correlation. However, switching to the DJX because my charting service doesn't want to give me Dow charts right now, the DJX low was 103.79 and the 72-ema is at 103.734. Maybe the 72-ema works for the Dow, too? We'll have to see what happens by the end of the day. The 65-ema is at 104.08, so a close above that ema might keep it in the running, too.

  James Brown   3/10/200,  1:33:32 PM
This is a CRITICAL test for Corning Inc (GLW) today. The stock has broken its simple 50-dma (yesterday) and the $12.00 level today and trading toward its simple 100-dma. It also just so happens to be testing its rising trendline of support that has held EVERY time since October 2002. The current drop looks pretty ugly... will it break support this time?

  James Brown   3/10/200,  1:29:24 PM
observation... INTC is rolling over again under its 200-dma, down 1.42%.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:27:40 PM
The TRAN is less than 2 points away from a lower low on the daily chart, less than 18 points away from a new P&F sell signal, which means it's also perching on a possible countertrend bounce point. (It moved up a bit as I typing, but the sentiment is still the same.)

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:25:25 PM
There goes the OEX 1/29 low, and the confirmation level of the double-top formation. The OEX now has a downside target near 541-542, but the 72-ema has been stopping declines on the OEX throughout the last year, and that average is at 553.23. I think we're still in the realm of a possible countertrend bounce here.

  James Brown   3/10/200,  1:25:24 PM
Update on Best Buy Co (BBY)... I've been commenting on BBY's channel between $50 and $55 for a couple of weeks now (if not longer). This morning BBY has broken through the bottom of its channel at psychological and round-number support at $50.00 and its simple 200-dma.

There is minor support in the $48.50-48.70 region from last December and the stock bounced there this morning at $48.71 but that bounce appears to be fading already. I would suspect that the technical and psychological "damage" done by breaking $50 and its 200-dma would out weight any support near $48.50 but a cautious bear could wait for BBY to break the December low at this level (48.50).

The decline has produced a new sell signal on its P&F chart, which points toward a $43.00 price target. Notable is the P&F support in the $41-42 range. Bears should also be concerned about potential bullish broker comments. Just last week Raymond James reiterated their "strong buy" outlook. Plus, BBY has an earnings report expected on March 31st. As the dominant player in the consumer electronics business it could actually see an earnings run.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:22:26 PM
As I type, the OEX is now 3 cents above its 1/29 low.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  1:21:32 PM
Bearish day trade target alert ... SanDisk (SNDK) $26.87.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:20:32 PM
The TRAN has still not yet violated its early February low, although it's again less than 5 points from that low. It's also less than 21 points away from a new P&F sell signal and the confirmation of a H&S neckline. This is make-it-or-break-it for the TRAN (and maybe, by extension, for the Dow?). The TRAN needs to bounce.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:16:56 PM
OEX 557-557.50 is approaching, with 557.36 having marked a swing low on the OEX daily chart. This is a zone from which we ought to get a bounce attempt of some sort, but that may depend on other indices, too. This morning, I posted a Dow chart that showed how the Dow had traded in relationship to its 65-ema over most of the last year, and it's sitting on that average right now. Here's the daily chart: Link I don't know if this average actually has any relevance or not, but it appears to have, so a violation on a closing basis would seem significant to me.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:11:58 PM
Reader's response to my 12:49 post: Linda, yesterday I also heard on CNBC that a refinancing processing company gave customers the option of having their papers processed offshore in 10 days, or domestically in 12 days, and "most" chose offshore. I guess it depends on whose dollar is on the line:-)

Guess it does. Thanks for the information.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:10:04 PM
That OEX Keltner channel bullish divergence that I was noting in my 12:40 post did result in a climb, even producing a higher five-minute high, but it sure didn't mean much, did it, at least so far? The OEX turned right around and hit a new low.

  James Brown   3/10/200,  1:09:57 PM
Also on the watch list last night was Ingersoll-Rand (IR). Shares of IR have been stuck in a sideways trading range between $64.00 and 68.50 for nearly six weeks. One might naturally assume that when IR raised its Q1 earnings guidance last night (from 65-75 cents to 70-80 cents) the stock would trade higher today. It did see a gap higher at the open but IR quickly faded and is headed toward its simple 100-dma (64.40). Bears might do well waiting for a breakdown under support at $64.00 and target a move toward $60.00 or its 200-dma near $58.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  1:09:56 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... SanDisk (SNDK) $27.02 -1.74% ... Lower day trade bearish stop to $27.25.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  1:05:25 PM
Thanks, Jonathan, (for your response to my 12:49 post). I was watching ABC news partly because we're DISH customers and Dallas is one of the areas that involved in DISH's dispute with Viacom. We're no longer receiving CBS and some of the other channels CBS is linking to DISH's redistribution license, such as MTV, the Comedy Channel, and some others. DISH is characterizing this as CBS's fault: CBS says DISH dropped them. Marketwatch.com (partly owned by Viacom) said in an article last night CBS is more important to DISH than DISH is to CBS, and intimated that DISH's CEO was taking a gutsy but risky move. Let's see if I can explain this correctly: DISH's subscribers make up a far smaller percentage of CBS's viewers than CBS's viewers do of DISH's subscribers. Apparently among DISH's subscribers, more than 17% are CBS viewers, if I remember the statistics correctly. With the NBA tournament coming up, that may cause DISH many problems, although callers in a "Chat with Chuck" (the CEO: I believe that was his name) program last night were mostly complaining about "Survivor." DISH is higher today, but is below its opening price and below all major averages, too, so it's unclear whether it can retrace much of the ground it's lost since mid-February. Today's pop higher brought it into that big gap down in early November, and I think it's likely to struggle with that gap resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  1:05:10 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   3/10/200,  1:03:56 PM
Last night we listed XL Capital (XL) as a potential bearish play on the watch list given its multiple failed rallies under the 50-dma (and 40-dma and 200-dma) near the $78.00 level over the last few sessions. As of yesterday's close it had broken its simple 10-dma and was looking rather vulnerable. We're seeing some confirmation today with another 1.11% drop pushing its short-term technicals even lower.

XL isn't getting any help from the IUX insurance index, which appears to have produced a potential double-top in the last thirty days. I will say that XL has a longer-term trend of higher lows on its weekly chart but the stock could still dip to the $70 mark before touching that trendline of support.

  Jane Fox   3/10/200,  12:58:43 PM
Linda just goes to show the grass is not always greener on the other side of the ocean.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  12:51:32 PM
Thanks for posting that, Linda. Great story.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  12:49:15 PM
Yesterday ABC's evening news carried a report on a start-up tech company (I believe in Boston) that was advised to outsource programming jobs to India to keep costs down. Programmers could be hired in India for $40,000 while salaries would be in the $80,000 range here. Instead, the company advertised India-type salaries for programmers here in the U.S. The company was flooded with resumes, hired programmers, and reportedly is doing well. Reportedly, some of those have now received raises.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  12:48:04 PM
Day trade short alert ... SanDisk (SNDK) $27.13 here, stop $27.30, target $26.87.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  12:40:48 PM
If there was ever a day when it's better to study some new indicator to keep oneself from punching in orders, today's the day. Why not study new moving averages, new tools, new indicators? Here's one you might watch, just for the heck of it: Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  12:25:26 PM
Is anything other than PG, the HUI and the XAU moving? SUNW is moving higher after its recent drubbing, bouncing 3.46% and climbing back above its 200-dma. I wouldn't exactly call that stock a pillar of strength, however, as this looks more like a measured distribution pattern beginning than anything else, at least so far. Among the sectors, the Oil Service Sector Index, the OIX is down 1.61%, but other than the XAU and the HUI, most others are up or down less than 1%.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  12:14:53 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  12:05:39 PM
The TRAN is negative again, but still holding above the 2/04 intraday low of 2815.88, with the TRAN currently at 2827.58.

So far, this day is turning out about as I thought it would, with no feasible (directional) options trades being offered on the OEX. I still don't see anything that would tempt me to suggest a trade to readers. The possibility of a move up to test resistance or down to test 557-557.50 still exists.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  11:42:17 AM
No moving averages, envelopes, Keltner channels, Bollinger bands, Donchian channels, oscillators. Here's what I see when I look at the chart formations on a 120-minute OEX chart, stripped of all those other indicators: Link

  Jim Brown   3/10/200,  11:27:39 AM
PFE saying that their pension fund is now over funded thanks to the recent market gains

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  11:24:56 AM
Central Keltner channel resistance on the five-minute OEX chart has dropped to 561.87, with top resistance now at 565.55, but still dropping. That central channel resistance on the 15-minute chart has descended to 564.60. It has been dropping quickly, but may be trying to flatten now.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  11:21:11 AM
Since early February, the SOX has been moving up in a series of bear flags then dropping lower again. In classic technical analysis, a bear flag will not retrace more than 50% of the previous plunge before breaking down, but on both 2/19 and 3/02, the SOX retraced far more than 50% of the previous plunge during intraday trading. On each of those days, however, the SOX fell back from the intraday highs, with the candle bodies forming below the 50% retracement level. Yesterday, I speculated that the SOX might begin another bounce from between 470-480, and such a bounce did begin, but it's tepid so far, presenting the possibility that it, too, is some sort of distribution pattern. If this one is another bear-flag rise, then it should retrace no more than 50% of the flagpole drop, so should break down before it rises higher than 500.50 or so, but the last two SOX bear flags have taught us that we ought to be watching closing levels and not intraday highs to determine retracements on the SOX. It shouldn't close higher than 500.50 if this is a bear flag. Actually, I expect the SOX to run into first resistance again at the 491-493 level, and its behavior there may tell us a lot about this formation. ATR is 11.98 and flags tend to be overlapping formations anyway, so it could take several days to a week for the SOX to hit that 500 level if it's going to retrace all that way and not get stopped at the 491-493 level instead.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  11:10:40 AM
The BIX bounced today from its 21-dma, but it so far remains below the ascending trendline that was drawn off the 1/28, 2/17, and 3/01 highs. The BIX burst above that trendline Friday, but has traded lower every day since, finally dropping back below the trendline yesterday afternoon and closing there, too. That trendline crosses now at about 357.50, with the BIX currently at 355.96. Daily oscillators look bearish, but the MACD bearish cross is tentative and from above signal. We know how fickle RSI and stochastics can be, too, turning right back up again if price does. So far, however, the setup looks as if resistance, either near 357.50, 361.25 or 362.60, will hold.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  11:05:47 AM
FWIW, the TRAN is in positive territory.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  11:04:37 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  10:54:28 AM
So far, the OEX has not yet reached a new five-minute high, which would occur on a move above 561.57. Below the current level, where Keltner support exists, next Keltner support is at 559.60 and then 558.25-558.77.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:41:20 AM
Petro Canada (PCZ) $44.40 -2.22% ... Weakness from my neckline of reverse head/shoulder pattern. Testing its trying to round out 21-day SMA here.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  10:40:30 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .96 here, VXO down a touch to 16.98.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:39:15 AM
Sun Communities (SUI) $41.99 +1.10% ... new 52-weeker

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  10:33:10 AM
After coming within 2.10 points of its February low, the TRAN is trying to bounce again, not quite positive on the day.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:31:20 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  10:22:23 AM
Perhaps that OEX touch of 557-557.50 comes before a bounce? That was always a possibility today, although I'd thought it likely that there would be a bounce up near 562.50 first. Perhaps the OEX just slipped a little lower before getting its feet under it. The TRIN supports the idea that the OEX and other markets will go lower before going higher, but the 557-559 zone is a no-trade zone as far as I'm concerned, except for those who were already in bearish OEX plays. Those traders should be setting stops appropriate to their trading styles to guard profits, but not necessarily exiting them just yet.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:10:50 AM
Correction to target ... Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) ... bearish swing trade target is $25.05, (not $26.05)

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:07:12 AM
Swing Trade Short alert ... Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) $26.75 here, stop $27.25 (to begin), target $25.05.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  10:04:06 AM
TASR: With so many readers expressing interest in TASR, I thought I'd mention that it's testing the short-term ascending trendline from the 1/09 low, with that trendline crossing at about $54.00 today. It dropped below that trendline on Friday in what looked to be a trap after Monday's pop back above the trendline. I mentioned Monday morning, however, that the pop back above that trendline could be a trap as well and mentioned yesterday that I thought it likely that TASR would form either a lower high or an equal high. Oscillator evidence is mixed on the daily chart, but a fall below $54.00 and then below the 30-dma (now at $50.63) sets up the possibility of a move down to $42.00-44.00, a zone that offers multiple support levels. This one jumps around too much for my liking, but I guess that's what makes good daytrading, right, as long as you can guess in advance which direction it's going to jump. Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of a trade on this one, and with what is likely to be heavy short-interest, it's easy to be on the wrong side! A bounce from that trendline sets up the possibility that TASR will move higher again, perhaps into an equal or lower high.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  10:03:58 AM
The opening put to call ratio is .92, VXO +4.42% at 17.12- this indicates a spike in fear in the market, following yesterday's large move as well, and is a point of caution for bears.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  10:00:41 AM
Sell Program Premium

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  9:59:48 AM
3.75B overnight repo for a 250M net addition from the Fed.

  Jim Brown   3/10/200,  9:59:17 AM
Wholesale Trade = +0.1% (est +0.5%, last +1.0%)

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  9:58:45 AM
Sector action mixed .... Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 225.97 -1.45% early weakness.

Networking (NWX.X) 276.88 +0.84% and Disk Drive (DDX.X) 126.00 +0.79% early strength.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  9:55:00 AM
Wholesale inventories data due in 5 minutes, est +.4%.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:53:20 AM
If I'd had to bet on direction today coming into the open (and I wouldn't have done that with my money), I'd have bet on a choppy move higher on the OEX from somewhere within the 559.50-560.50 zone, up to test the 120-minute 130-pma, now at 563.54 but descending. The most likely scenario to me was for the OEX to eventually cover the distance between 560-562.50, but with constant vulnerability to the downside and with little evidence one way or the other about the likelihood that the OEX could move any higher than 563. Those are not my kind of trading conditions and that's the reason I mentioned this morning that I wasn't sure a feasible OEX trade would turn up today.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  9:47:33 AM
There's a 3.5B overnight repo expiring today. We await the 10AM announcement to determine the direction of the Fed's interventions for the day.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:47:32 AM
The TRAN is now below yesterday's intraday low, continuing its almost inevitable push down to test the February low of 2815.66. A breach of that low would be serious, and would set up a test of 2800, the neckline of the possible H&S and the trigger point for a new P&F sell signal. As I type, the TRAN is at 2821.89. As always, as an important low is being tested, bounce potential exists.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:45:00 AM
Next short-term Keltner support on the OEX five-minute chart has declined from 560 to 559.90, with lower support from 558.86-559.14.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:37:24 AM
The TRAN is lower this morning, but it hasn't yet breached yesterday's intraday low.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:35:09 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 560.93 to 561.37. On the Keltner charts, it's nearing first Keltner resistance, looking as if it might pull back toward 560.75 or 560, but the shortest-term Keltner channel I watch has begun slanting up toward mid-channel resistance, currently at 562.65, so the bounce potential remains, at least up to that mid-channel resistance. Remember that's "potential," however.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  9:27:52 AM
Mortgage Bankers Association weekly data for week ended March 5 at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  9:23:39 AM
Bullish swing trade raise stop alert .... Sun Communities (SUI) $41.53 .... raising bullish swing trade stop to $40.84 from $40.30.

This is a repeat of last night's Market Monitor entry.

  Jeff Bailey   3/10/200,  9:17:23 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  9:12:24 AM
The daily chart of the OEX shows that a breakdown out of the narrowing triangle on the daily chart, but also shows the OEX's near approach yesterday to what is likely to be strong support: Link Those already in bearish positions should guard profits, as it's possible that the OEX will bounce from between 557-559.50 up to retest the broken support from that triangle, a bounce that may have begun yesterday afternoon. New bearish entries might be found either on a rollover beneath that broken support (at 564.75 or 567), making sure first that there is a rollover, or on a breakdown below the 557.36 confirmation level of the double-top formation. What about new long entries? That's more difficult, as daily oscillators now suggest that such entries might be considered countertrend trades. However, if that 557-557.50 level is hit, I expect at least some sort of bounce attempt to be mounted, particularly if the Dow is hitting 10,400 at the same time, and some might consider a countertrend trade with a small upside target of 563. That's not my kind of trade, so I'm mentioning it only for the benefit of the gunslinger types out there. Actually, I believe it's possible that today will be a consolidation day and that no feasible plays might be offered.

Why do I mention 10,400 on the Dow? Let's look at some of my Dow/TRAN notes: Many of you watch the TRAN's performance in relationship to the Dow, just as I do, understanding that the two should confirm each other's new (closing) highs and lows. That didn't happen in February, when the Dow hit a new closing high but the TRAN did not. That's bearish divergence. I've been mentioning the TRAN's behavior every day, and also noting that a new P&F sell signal will occur if the TRAN should trade 2800. That's not all that will happen. Note that the TRAN's daily pattern is a possible H&S, with the neckline confirmation coming near the point at which a new sell signal would be issued on the P&F chart. Link

On the Dow, substitute a 65-ema for the 50-dma you've got on your chart, with this average being one I discovered to have some possible relevance when playing around with various MA's, and you'll see that this MA appears to have been important over the last year, with that MA currently at 10,404.92. (Note: I've used the DJX because I couldn't get a Dow chart from my charting service.) Link There have been several touches of this MA over the last year, but only one close beneath it (by two points, for one day only) since April 2 of last year. A Dow close beneath that MA would appear significant, then, although it's perhaps as likely that the Dow will bounce from that average (perhaps into a H&S-ish formation) as it is to drop through it. Hence the importance of the Dow hitting 10,400 at about the same time the OEX hit 557-557.50, if the two events should coincide. There's strong bounce potential there, but great significance if no bounce occurs.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  9:04:13 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January, as rising oil prices helped keep imports near historic highs and exports retreated slightly despite the weaker dollar, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  8:31:22 AM
Trade balance -43.1B. Bonds are higher and equities lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/10/200,  8:06:09 AM
We await the 8:30 release of January's balance of trades, est. -42B, and the 10AM wholesale inventories for January, est. +.4%.

  Linda Piazza   3/10/200,  7:14:38 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei gapped lower again in Wednesday's trading and had fallen 140 points by the close of the morning session. It dipped almost another 40 points early in the afternoon session, but then began climbing off that low, trimming its losses to 98.80 points or 0.86% by the end of the day. It closed at 11,433.24.

The government revised the GDP for the Oct-Dec quarter, down to 1.6% growth from the preliminary 1.7% estimate, and a 6.4% annualized rate from the preliminary 7%. That downward revision surprised market watchers, adding to the concern engendered by yesterday's machinery orders number. In other economic reports, strong exports sent January's current-account surplus higher for the seventh straight month, but February's wholesale prices were flat year-over-year.

Many banking stocks moved higher, although the sector was mixed. Techs and exporters declined, with the semi-related stocks mostly continuing their declines in Japan and across Asia. Despite an upgrade of Nissan's credit grating by Moody's, that company joined other exporters and some other auto stocks in declining. Media reports focused on Sony, Canon, and Japan Airlines System. EK sued Sony for allegedly using its digital camera patents without permission, Canon raised its 2005 pretax profit target but lowered its sales target, and Japan Airlines would cut 4,500 jobs, various media outlets reported.

Most other Asian bourses declined. The Taiwan Weighted fell 1.42% and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.75%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.54% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.37%. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific airlines contributed to that loss, with the company's stock declining after the company reported that SARS-related losses were at least partly responsible for a steep fall in 2003 net profit. The company did say that it became profitable again in the second half of the fiscal year. China's Shanghai Composite was one of only two Asian bourses posting gains in Wednesday's trading, climbing 2.50%.

Most European bourses trade lower, too, although their losses are more modest, at least in early trading. The focus this morning appeared to be on specific stocks, both in television and print reports. Some reports centered on French engineering group Alstom, plummeting in early trading after saying that orders could top forecasts but projecting widening restructuring costs and saying that it might require new lending terms after last year's bailout by the French government. Deutsche Telekom reported earnings, with that earnings report leading Standard & Poor's to say that the company's better-than-expected cash flow generation might motivate them to upgrade the company's rating. However, the stock dropped in early trading on possible disappointment with the company's mobile revenues, according to one analyst. Adidas-Salmon declined after reporting declining footwear orders, especially in North America, but higher apparel backlog growth. The banking sector was mixed, with Dutch bank and insurer ING falling after it confirmed that the SEC had included the company in the agency's investigation into marking timing, and French bank Credit Agricole gaining after it reported earnings.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had declined 12.60 points or 0.28%, to 4529.40. The CAC 40 had fallen 10.31 points or 0.28%, to 3726.72. The DAX declined a heftier 51.62 points or 1.26%, to 4035.93.

  OI Technical Staff   3/9/2004,  10:28:13 PM
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