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  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  6:14:19 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  5:33:54 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  4:40:19 PM
QQQ Option Chain sorted by March Open Interest (as of Monday evening) at this Link

RED arrows indicate decline in OI, GREEN arrows indicate increase in OI.

If you were an options market maker, who could you jerk with the most?

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:51:09 PM
QQQ $35.10 ... post FOMC high was $35.11. BIG volume this 5-minute interval of 5.56 million shares.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:45:55 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,196 +0.91% ... challenges DAILY R1 of 10,198.51 late, but hasn't yet made a new session high (10,221.11)

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:43:26 PM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 1,002.39 +1.33% ... session highs

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:42:22 PM
Swing trade long alert ... QQQ $35.03 here, stop the lows of the session, target $35.70.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  3:22:48 PM
Sunoco (SUN) is looking vulnerable. The stock has broken through the bottom of its rising channel and is breaking down under support at $60.00. SUN may still have additional support at its 40 & 50-dma's.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  3:19:31 PM
If you haven't heard yet MGM is considering a one-time dividend payout of $6 to $9 per share. That's a HUGE yield on a $17.50 stock. Shares are up 8.8% today on the news.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  3:14:18 PM
Copper futures are up again following yesterday's big gain. Meanwhile shares of Phelps Dodge (PD) are still coiling near support at $80.00 and its 50-dma. Aggressive trades could buy it here with a tight stop or look for a move over $81.75, which seems to be minor resistance.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  3:07:20 PM
Sector update...

IUX insurance index: +0.74%
BKX banking index: +0.71%
XAU gold & silver: +0.34%
UTY utilities: +0.32%
DRG drug index: +0.29%

(Biggest) Losers:
NWX networking index: -1.85%
BTK biotech index: -2.05%
OSX oil services: -1.48%
DFI defense index: -1.12%
GSO software index: -1.58%

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:07:01 PM
QQQ $34.70 -0.51% .... session low has been $34.63, with WEEKLY S1 at $34.60.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  3:05:55 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:57:19 PM
Best Buy Co (BBY) is still consolidating its recent breakdown under $50.00 and its 200-dma but the trend is lower with a nice short-term trend of lower highs. This looks like a bearish candidate if you missed the original breakdown. However, watch out for BBY's earnings report on March 31st.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  2:56:08 PM
Ten year yields down to 3.689%

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:55:23 PM
Buy Prog. Prem.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:52:03 PM
The rally is definitely fading in shares of Kohl's (KSS). The company announced earnings in late February but the post-earnings rush has faded and KSS has now failed twice under its 200-dma and the breakdown under $50.00 looks pretty bearish. There may be some support at its simple 50-dma but the stock looks like a short candidate.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:47:30 PM
The recent bounce is Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) is starting to look like a failed rally with today's roll over under the $76 level, which was previous support for most of February.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:45:18 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.74 +0.37% ... afternoon low here. No sign of strength that I can find at this point.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:37:54 PM
The biotech sector (BTK.X) is certainly not seeing any bounce today either. Today's drop confirms yesterday's breakdown under the 50-dma. The biggest component in the BTK is AMGN, which broke the $60.00 mark yesterday and continues to fall today.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:37:45 PM
Interest sensitive ... S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 349.03 +0.74% ... best level of the session came at DAILY R1 of 349.41, when BIX.X traded a session high of 349.43. Move above 350 might get some bullish attention as to a market read on the FOMC.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:33:20 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:33:02 PM
After weeks of slowly bleeding lower shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) have finally broken their simple 200-dma near the $68.00 level today. Definitely no bounce here.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  2:30:23 PM
Bulls may want to keep an eye on insurance giant AIG. The recent decline has stalled at the $70 level of support and shares are bouncing. Short-term oscillators like the RSI and Stochastics are turning bullish. A move back over its 50-dma and traders could target the highs near $75-76.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:19:12 PM
Buy Prog. Prem. followed that sell program

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:17:52 PM
BIG reversal in Treasuries strong buying has 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) falling 2.4 basis points to 3.737%. Was trading 3.79% prior to FOMC

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:16:40 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  2:16:36 PM
Fed policy announcement

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace. Although job losses have slowed, new hiring has lagged. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  2:13:54 PM
Jonathan turned bullish? (grin)

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  2:02:51 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert ... Bristol Myers Squibb $25.05 ...

Should'a covered when Jonathan got bullish.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  1:43:31 PM
Bull? Are you a bull by hope or being a cheerleader today? I don't see a bull in the market!! Guess we'll know in a little while. Suzanne

My bias is that we are very oversold and the Dow/Nasdaq are resisting any further drops to near the support at 10000/1900. This is the place where we could bounce if the Fed announcement is the least bit positive. Not trying to project a bias but I do believe we are oversold.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  1:40:26 PM
Hi Jim; The only reason I can see for today's positive bias is the extreme oversold condition of the markets plus the triple witching but NOT the fed meeting!!

The BEST the FED can do is leave everything the same which is already known. The risk is downhill from there!!

The Economist had 2 articles calling for higher US interest rates, plus Stephen Roach's open letter 2 weeks ago calling for the same etc...

Today's trading should NOT be based on the FED meeting at all!!. In fact I am thinking of shorting any after FED announcement rally - Jamil

I have no problem with shorting after the announcement if the market is moving down. I have no problem with anything you said. I am only saying that the historical bias for Fed announcements is a market uptick prior to the announcement. Whether it is short covering or bargain hunting I do not know. It just normally happens.

I agree the Fed can do nothing EXCEPT say something bullish about the economy and that they are on hold for the foreseeable future. Since most traders think the Fed's next move will be up, any confirmation of no impending move is still bullish. Considering the state of the market any comments that can be interpreted as bullish could help stimulate the market. I guarantee that there are traders today that are fearing a statement that could be construed as a potential rate hike ahead. This uncertainty always sours the markets. Once the meeting is over and that uncertainty has passed we will see what real sentiment appears.

  Jane Fox   3/16/200,  1:34:32 PM
The latest U.S. government data shows that foreigners outsource far more office work to the U.S. than American companies send abroad.

The value of U.S. exports of legal work, computer programming, telecommunications, banking, engineering, management consulting and other private services jumped to $131.01 billion in 2003, up $8.42 billion from the previous year.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  1:28:21 PM
Currently there are only 31 Nasdaq stocks over their 100dma. At the tech market bottom in March-2003 there were only 22 stocks over their 100dma. Could be a sign that the selling is about over.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  1:24:33 PM
MSTR - Down -7.00, this stock has a colorful history of surprising investors.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  1:21:02 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) $24.93 -1.03% ... lower stop to $25.05.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  1:08:18 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  12:54:44 PM
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) $25.00 -0.75% ... session low came at $24.86, just before Jonathan's post at 12:29:47.

  Jane Fox   3/16/200,  12:36:07 PM
If Linda were here she would be mentioning the TRAN - transport index - is making new lows.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  12:34:51 PM
Net2Phone (NTOP) $4.82 -5.47% .... sudden deline in last 5-minutes below $5.00.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  12:29:41 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  12:00:13 PM
Reuters saying the rumors of a Bin Laden capture are wrong. Quoting a military source. Since I never heard any this is an interesting note.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  11:53:06 AM
Day trade short alert ... Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) $25.10 -0.35% here, stop $25.22, target $24.72.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  11:50:43 AM
Rumor of a bomb threat on a train in NYC.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:48:14 AM
Homebuilders are holding up pretty well considering the negative housing starts this morning. However, a good number of them are starting to look tired again with a short-term trend of lower highs and technicals that are suggesting a short-term pullback could be around the corner.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  11:46:19 AM
Oracle (ORCL) $11.50 -1.37% ... Prudential removes stock from its "Focus List" in favor of Applied Materials (AMAT) $21.04 +1.44%.

"What's going on... is the end of Silicon Valley as we know it. The next big thing ain't computers... it's biotechnology." - Larry Ellison (Oracle CEO quoted in The Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2003)

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:43:31 AM
Current OI call play ATH continues to inch higher now up three days in a row and breaking out over the $90.00 mark.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:42:19 AM
Current OI put play IVGN is still consolidating under the $70.00 level but instead of bouncing today with the rest of the markets we're seeing a new relative low with the breakdown under $67.25.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:40:20 AM
Barry Diller's Internet empire, better known as InterActive Corp (IACI), grows again. This morning they announced plans to acquire privately held TripAdvisor Inc (a.k.a. TripAdvisor.com).

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:37:01 AM
Lehman Brothers (LEH) announced earnings this morning. Estimates were for $1.66 a share. The company turned in $2.21 per share. Q1 revenues soared +84% to $3.14billion. Despite the earnings blow out the stock's early morning strength is fading and shares have pulled back to fill the morning gap higher. Currently LEH is trying to hold the $85.00 level.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:32:21 AM
Yesterday Service Corp (SRV) announced earnings that beat estimates by 4 cents with net income hitting 10 cents per share. The company also guided earnings higher for the year. The stock surged yesterday on three times the average volume and we're seeing some follow through today. Boosting shares up 3.39% this morning is an upgrade to "strong buy" by Raymond James. The move over $7.30 is a 2 1/2 year high.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:24:04 AM
Sector Update @ 11:30 AM ET

(Biggest) Winners:
XAU gold & silver: +1.78%
DDX disk drives: +1.44%
INX Internets: +1.46%
SOX semiconductors: +1.38%

TRAN Dow transports: -2.45%
DFI defense index: -1.11%
GSO software index: -0.35%

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:20:24 AM
Bob O'Brian was just talking about Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). The stock is up 5.96% to $33.91 but the rally failed under resistance at the $35.00 level. Bank of America upped TTWO to a "buy" this morning.

  James Brown   3/16/200,  11:17:45 AM
Smith Barney has issued ratings on a handful of oil and oil service stocks. Those stocks receiving a "hold" rating are: APC, DVN, EVG, EOG, KMG, POG, NBL, PXD. Started with a "sell" is BR. Started with a "buy" is APA.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  11:11:15 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  11:10:30 AM
Well put, Jane. I recall Dennis Miller saying that he was afraid of winning the Publishers Clearinghouse Sweepstakes because he didn't want to be photographed with the other so-called "winners". As he put it, "And you thought there were a lot of zeros in the prize..."

  Jane Fox   3/16/200,  11:08:52 AM
Goes back to the theory of always reverting back to the mean, doesn't it Jonathan?

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  11:06:37 AM
Hope it works out for them, Jane. I've seen a stat somewhere to the effect that 90% of these "winners" wind up less wealthy than they started within 5 years of winning jackpots of 1M or more. Hopefully this one's paid out as an annuity.

  Jane Fox   3/16/200,  11:03:00 AM
This from "Does the heart good" Column. A man who was laid off last week from his job at a tractor factory claimed a $89 million Powerball prize Monday with the sole winning ticket.

Tim Rivers said he and his wife, Pam, plan to buy a new house and move out of their mobile home in the town of Salem in southern Indiana.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:59:07 AM
Explosions being reported in Gaza City. Israeli missles reportedly targeting cars of escaping bomb planners.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  10:56:59 AM
GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 145.77 -0.13% ... dips into red. VRTS $27.06 -7.06%, SEBL $11.16 -1.23%, CA $25.49 -1.16% ...

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:48:49 AM
HPQ - announcd this morning that they were going to start selling several models of computers that run Linux in 12 Asian countries. They are targeting areas where PC penetration has been limited and the acceptance of the Windows operatig system has not taken hold. They are trying to make Linux the standard that everyone becomes used to initially and avoid having to add the expensive to each PC.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:33:41 AM
Schwab affirmed estimates this morning but said daily trades in February averaged only 166,900 per day and was down -22% from January levels of 215,100 trades per day.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  10:30:51 AM
Swift Transport (SWFT) $16.90 -13.46% Link ... Trucker lower after negative quarterly earnings warning. Company said combination of bad weather, early-reitrement charges, lack of driver availability and higher fuel costs hurt results as it now sees quarterly (March 31) net income of $8.9 million, or 10 cents a share on revenues of 551.3 million. Consensus was for company to earn $0.19 per share.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  10:18:54 AM
Orthodontic Centers of America (OCA) $7.29 +19.18% Link ... reported quarterly EPS of $0.22, which was 2 cents above concensus.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  10:11:58 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Note how anemic early volumes are.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  10:10:52 AM
Opening p/c ratio .83, VXO -2.76% to 20.79.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:06:21 AM
Advancing volume nearly 4:1 over declining volume and advancers 4:1 over decliners. Very strong start this morning but volume is still very light. This is the second rally on very light volume and the recent moves to the downside have been on heavy volume. Yesterday down volume was 9:1 over advancing volume.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:03:17 AM
Some of the other big gainers this morning include:


  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  10:01:17 AM
MMM is holding near its opening high and now up +3.61. This bounce off its 200dma pulled it out of danger for the time being. Funny, I mentioned I liked MMM and wanted to buy it in the Editors Play on Sunday. I passed because it was showing no strength despite my bullish bias on the stock.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  9:57:43 AM
The Fed's open market desk is taking no action today, letting 3.5B expire for a net drain in that amount.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  9:56:22 AM
Sector Strength across the board with Internet (INX.X) 172.32 +2.08%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 124.85 +2.04%, Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 479.37 +1.61% leading gains.

Weakness is limited to Defense (DFX.X) 196.56 -0.32%, Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 675.85 -0.1%

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  9:42:04 AM
QQQ $35.14 +0.71% ... similar morning trade to that found on Friday where QQQ gapped higher above MONTHLY S2, then edged back lower into morning gap higher by just a penny, and trended higher to close $35.52.

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  9:29:56 AM
Bearish swing trade stop alert .... QQQ $35.11 +0.64%

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  9:26:49 AM
QQQ .... trading $35.14 in pre-market and at current level of trade, would have my swing trade bearish being stopped out at the open. Pre-market high has been $35.18.

The likely gap higher open will have the QQQ above its our DAILY Pivot of $35.03 and MONTHLY S2 of $35.06

  Jeff Bailey   3/16/200,  9:23:27 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  9:18:27 AM
CFC - CountryWide Financial - announced a 3:2 split this morning.

  Jim Brown   3/16/200,  9:17:03 AM
Linda will not be with us today. She is becoming a grandmother for the third time this morning. We wish her, her daughter and her new grand child the best and hope everything goes smoothly without any complications.

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  8:30:57 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  8:30:04 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   3/16/200,  7:59:55 AM
We await 8:30 Housing starts for Feb., est. 1940K and building permits, est. 1900K. The FOMC announcement is scheduled for 2:15 EST.

  OI Technical Staff   3/15/200,  12:58:37 AM
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