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  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  6:47:38 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  5:26:02 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  4:00:44 PM
Here's how the OEX ended the day with respect to the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and the upside target predicted by the break out of the rectangular consolidation pattern: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  4:00:11 PM
QQQ $35.41 +2.84% ... session high has been $35.46, but looks to want to settle out near WEEKLY R1 of $35.37. 14-minutes to close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  3:43:31 PM
Reader Question: Any comments on VIX?

Response: Funny you should ask. I was just annotating this chart when the email arrived: Link If the VIX were an equity and I were looking at its chart, I'd be disturbed about the bigger-than-normal moves, both up and down, after it crossed that trendline and the 100/130-dma's, and wonder if that wasn't a sign that it wasn't yet ready to move higher and would likely fall. In the context of our continuing cautions about market-timing using the VIX alone and cautions that the VIX has not yet fallen beneath the 100-dma (as I type) or that supporting trendline, I'd use the action here to warn me of possible near-term bullishness in equities while letting price action alone guide my decisions rather than VIX action. Just as indices are testing near-term important resistance, it's natural to find the VIX declining to test near-term important support. Either the VIX is going to move higher again and equities may or may not move lower again or the opposite may occur, but use the VIX level as one useful tool rather than the arbiter of your decisions. Do any of the other writers have anything to add, perhaps to agree or dispute this information?

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:31:19 PM
A 2.85% rally in the NASDAQ composite is getting a little too euphoric.
Plus, the XAL airlines index is up 5.38%.
GSO software +4.19%.
INX Internet +4.31%.
SOX +3.67%
NWX +3.96%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  3:28:11 PM
The biotechs perhaps helped boost the markets today, bouncing from 500 support, nearly touched yesterday, and the 100-dma at 499.16. However, the BTK.X, the Biotechnology Index, hasn't quite broken out of a steep descending regression channel, at least as Q-charts draws it; above the 525-530 resistance; or above the 10-dma, although it's close to breaking above that last level. (Note: It broke above the 10-dma as I typed.)

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:23:52 PM
The breakout over recent highs in MMM looks pretty encouraging.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:19:49 PM
Ross Stores (ROST) is bouncing from the bottom of its rising trend. It might be a good bullish play with a trigger over the $30.00 mark but watch out for potential resistance at the bottom and the top of its gap down from early March.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:13:26 PM
Software maker Adobe Systems (ADBE) might make a decent bullish play with a trigger above resistance in the 40.20-40.50 range. Its P&F chart would suggest waiting for a move over $41.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  3:13:25 PM
Here are a couple of observations on a 30-minute OEX candlestick chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  3:11:56 PM
GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 150.59 +3.83% ... threatens a close above its falling 21-day SMA. First time since February 11 visit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  3:08:03 PM
When I look at the five-minute Keltner channel charts for the OEX, I see the OEX snagged in a tangle of support and resistance lines. It's impossible to tell from those lines alone, as is sometimes is, whether support or resistance is strongest. Oscillators are mixed, too, with the 5(3)3 stochs headed back up, the 21(3)3's trying to abort their downward slope and hook up again, and MACD still headed down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  3:07:35 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:07:18 PM
Check out the rally in Yahoo! (YHOO). The stock is up 4.26% and breaking out over its simple 50-dma. Its weekly chart looks rather bullish. Chart: Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  3:02:42 PM
Investors are taking advantage of the market bounce to buy Oracle (ORCL) near support. Chart: Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  2:57:45 PM
The Stanley Works (SWK) is breaking out above resistance at $40.00 to a new 12 month high. This breakout does have some decent volume behind it.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  2:55:47 PM
Mandalay Resort (MBG), a rival of MGG, also looks bullish and not quite so overbought over the last three days.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  2:54:36 PM
M G M Mirage (MGG) is producing a bull flag breakout to a new all-time high near $45.82. Unfortunately volume is rather low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  2:54:23 PM
If the OEX closes this 30-minute period where it is now, it will have completed an evening-star reversal pattern on that 30-minute chart. This may be particularly significant since the OEX has been in the process of testing its 30-minute 100/130-pma's. It's below the 130-pma and sitting right on the 100-pma. We've seen reversal signals that signaled nothing, but be watchful if in a bullish play.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  2:52:54 PM
Check out this chart on General Dynamic (GD). The recent consolidation above support at $85.00 and its 200-dma may be a buying opportunity. The stock is holding its rising trendline (blue line on the chart) dating back several months. Chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  2:47:05 PM
iShare Japan $10.72 +2.87% Link ... "X" gets the square at $10.50, plus a new 52-weeker.

Here's a Link to the NASDAQ's ETF Dynamic Heatmap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  2:38:39 PM
Here's how the OEX breakout looked on the Donchian channels: Link The Donchian's certainly allow an ease in determining when there's been a breakout, don't they? Unfortunately, they're not so good at predicting how far it's going to carry. It's a case when a trader needs to follow price action closely with stops.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  2:09:24 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  2:04:24 PM
Despite the upside target predicted by the break out of the rectangular consolidation zone, I'd be watching my stops on bullish plays without necessarily closing them out just yet. Before the OEX can get to that target, it has to break above the 30-minute 130-pma, an average it hasn't been above since March 8, as I noted in an earlier post. The 100-dma is just past that, too, at 546.05. I'd thought either 540-541 or this 544-546 zone would be most likely to stop the OEX advance. It cut right through the 540-542 zone after breaking out of the consolidation zone and perhaps it will do the same with the 544-546 zone, too, but once past 544, it's mired in another consolidation zone from last week and advances might slow. Some use the 30-minute 100/130-pma's as a guide, for example, considering a move to test the 130-pma and then again down through the 100-pma to be a bearish signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  1:57:30 PM
Swing trade long alert ... Monster Worldwide (MNST) $23.55 here, stop $22.00, target $26.25

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  1:56:13 PM
Here's a chart showing the upside target for the OEX based on the break out of the rectangular consolidation zone: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  1:45:01 PM
GE $29.64 +1.54% ... has erupted above BLUE #6 and $29.58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  1:40:22 PM
The OEX is currently testing the 30-minute 100-pma, the first time it's touched that average since late-day March 18. The 130-pma is just above at 544.37. The OEX hasn't been above that average since March 8, so this test of the 100/130-pma's on this time frame is an important one. When the OEX is volatile, I watch these averages on a 30-minute chart, but when it's not particularly volatile, I lengthen the time frame, all the way to a 120-minute chart in late February and early March while the OEX was stuck in that narrowing triangle on the daily chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  1:22:40 PM
Bullish day trade target alert ... GE $29.55 ... session high

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  1:16:30 PM
The OEX has broken out above the top resistance of the five-minute Keltner channels, giving a breakout signal that follows the one given earlier by the Donchian channels. It's time for those in long plays to begin following the OEX up with their stops, as such breakouts signal that the OEX is overbought on a short-term basis anyway. That doesn't mean it won't become more overbought as these signals can be valid ones, but the OEX has now hit a zone that should be first firm resistance. The way it climbed into that resistance doesn't look particularly sustainable to me, but that doesn't mean that the OEX won't rectify that condition and then zoom up again, this time toward the 100-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  1:06:21 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  12:56:18 PM
I'm 10-minute delayed ... but did get a QCharts al_rt at es04m 1,104.25.

VIX.X 18.29 -7.67%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  12:50:43 PM
GE $29.50 ... printing high of the session.

OEX 542.29 +1.45% ... printing high of the session.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:44:45 PM
Current OI call play ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) is offering a good news/bad news story today. The good news is that shares are up 8.55% to a new all-time high ($39.51). The bad news is that we can't find out what's driving the price higher? Okay, so that may not really be bad news but short-term traders may want to plan their exits as the stock approaches overhead resistance at $40.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  12:37:57 PM
As happened frequently last year, prodding me to put quotation marks around "bearish" when referring to bearish rising wedges, the OEX appears to have broken to the upside out of its bearish rising wedge on the 5- to 15-minute charts. It's now testing upper Keltner channel resistance on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:35:14 PM
Keep an eye on Yum Brands (YUM), parent of KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's, and A&W. The stock looks close to breaking out of what looks like a bull flag consolidation pattern. The company reaffirmed its full year earnings numbers this morning and announced that its March international sales rose 23% while Q1 sales were up 18%. YUM's Q1 U.S. same-store sales were up 4%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  12:32:18 PM
General Electric (GE) $29.46 ... printing high of the day

OEX 541.64 ... printing high of the day.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:29:45 PM
Another stock trying to make a rebound is Intuit Inc (INTU). Yesterday the stock was started at a "buy" from Needham & Co and today INTU announced that its TurboTax software sales through March 20th are up 10% compared to a year ago. INTU is up 2.07% and breaking out over its 21-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:23:03 PM
Sector update @ 12:25 PM ET

(Biggest) Winners:
XAL airlines index: +4.29%
NWX networking index: +3.06%
INX Internet index: +2.96%
GSO software index: +2.88%
SOX semiconductors: +2.45%

honorable mentions...
XBD broker-dealers: +1.69%
TRAN Dow transports: +1.90%
RLX retail index: +1.72%

Losers:
OIX oil index: -0.85%
DRG drug index: -0.14%
UTY utility index: -0.01%
...these are the ONLY sectors in the red today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  12:20:58 PM
I think--have always thought--that the OEX has a decent chance of rolling over somewhere near 541.50-542. Now that the OEX is rising, that doesn't feel such a sure thing, but that's the theory under which I've been working since Monday morning. However, if the OEX can get past that level, then a challenge of the 100-dma might be mounted, with that average currently at 546.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  12:20:56 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:18:20 PM
On Tuesday in the monitor I mentioned that Lockheed Martin (LMT) appeared to be trying to form a bottom and the breakout above its simple 10-dma looked tempting. The rebound is getting some follow through and it looks like a full fledged reversal for the defense contractor although the stock does have numerous resistance levels to fight through overhead. I would expect the $47.50-48.00 levels to be challenging.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  12:16:51 PM
Here are a couple of things I'm noting on the OEX 15-minute chart, including that possible bearish rising wedge: Link

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:14:22 PM
One of today's biggest gainers is KVH Industries (KVHI). The stock was upgraded from "out perform" to "strong buy" by Raymond James. The analyst there said channel checks are positive and they raised their price target to $28. Shares of KVHI are up 13.7% to $16.01 on strong volume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  12:11:09 PM
Upper channel resistance on the OEX five-minute chart has risen to 541.46. I've felt ever since Monday morning that the OEX would need to retest this zone. As the OEX is rising toward that level, however, it's now doing it within a rising wedge on that five-minute chart. We all know that rising wedges are supposed to be bearish formations, which would fit with the thought that the 541.50-542 resistance will hold, but all of us should also remember some infamous "bearish" rising wedges that started off last years' rally, just about this time of year. They don't always work the way they're supposed to work, do they?

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:07:34 PM
Bob Pisani is right. AMR, parent of American Airlines, is seeing a big move in its stock with an 8.18% gain to $11.50. Shares have been in dropping virtually non-stop for a month so it was due for an oversold bounce. Volume isn't very convincing so it's probably just short covering.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:05:02 PM
Lucent (LU) announced that it has won a 2 year, $75 million contract to rebuild part of the Iraq communication infrastructure. Too bad investors aren't reacting with the stock up just 5 cents to $3.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  12:02:16 PM
Day trade long alert ... General Electric (GE) $29.35 here, stop $29.20, target $29.55.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  12:02:04 PM
Out performing its peers in the software sector is Citrix Systems (CTXS). CTXS was upgraded from "neutral" to "out perform" by CSFB this morning who raised their price target from $23 to $26. Shares of CTXS are up 5.56% but struggling with resistance at $22.00 and its 100 & 200-dma's.

The GSO software index is up 2.72%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  11:59:30 AM
Day trade bullish target alert .... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.43

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:57:27 AM
Yesterday, I mentioned that Donchian channels could be an easy way of identifying likely historical S/R. There's another use for them, and that's in identifying breakouts. The OEX gave a breakout signal in the previous 30-minute period, closing above the top of the 20-period Donchian channel on the 30-minute chart. In my research, these signals worked best when the 21(3)3 stochastics were already trending at levels indicating overbought conditions, indicating that a trend was already in place, and the stochastics weren't quite there yet, making the signal somewhat iffy. Of course, the last "iffy" signal was a downside break on the 15:00 candle on 3/19, on a close at 546.12. That play would have been closed for a gain of about 7 points on either of the two exit systems I backtested: not bad for an "iffy" play.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  11:52:36 AM
Here's what I was looking at on SIRI. A daily and intraday chart: Link ..Here's a weekly chart: Link
I would certainly wait for that breakout to occur before considering longs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  11:46:30 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert .... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.35 +3% ... raise stop to $23.29.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:45:52 AM
Only I don't have a strong feeling for which direction SIRI might break, James. (See James' 11:38 and my 11:33 posts.) Oscillator evidence is mixed. You've probably been watching it more closely than I have. I turned to it because it's one of the indicator stocks I use to see how the techs are performing in relationship to that 72-ema, if they're still holding above it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  11:40:52 AM
QQQ $35.00 +1.60% ... WEEKLY Pivot .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:40:34 AM
The OEX is trying to climb above mid-channel Keltner resistance on its 15-minute chart, but hasn't quite pulled free yet. It has, however, climbed above the upper trendline on the chart linked to my 11:09 post, so has signaled a breakout by that method. This might be one of those days when the OEX just keeps climbing, and I just keep saying "but . . ." That's okay with me, though, because I knew all along there was a possibility for a potentially profitable long play and let readers know what I was seeing, but (there that word is again) just didn't feel comfortable suggesting a long entry just ahead of known 540-542 resistance.

 
 
  James Brown   3/25/200,  11:38:58 AM
I totally agree Linda. I was thinking of posting an annotated chart of SIRI yesterday! It looks like it's trying to turn higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:33:46 AM
SIRI looks as if it's about ready to break out of the neutral triangle in which it's been trading for the last couple of months: Link Actually, it's possible to extend that lower support line back further, much further, creating a slightly different angle, so it's a bit of guesswork as to which lower trendline might be most appropriate. This is the shortest-term one.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/25/200,  11:25:05 AM
You know Linda I have seen the TRIN move all over the map earlier this week and we had a neutral/bearish day. The TRIN's range today is bullish/neutral but is gyrating and not trending so today I would say it may have less influence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:21:59 AM
Are the markets preparing for a push higher? TRIN might be saying so, as it's dropping steeply over the last five minutes. Should we trust it, Jane?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  11:09:08 AM
Here's one reason that I haven't trusted slight breakout moves on the OEX over the last few days: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  11:07:48 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  11:01:18 AM
SOX.X 477.93 +2.09% ... closing in on its WEEKLY R1 of 480.82.

QQQ $34.93 +1.48% ... closing in on its WEEKLY Pivot of $35.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:59:08 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert ... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.28 +2.69% ... raise stop to break even.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:54:30 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $62.45 +1.05% Link .... volume has really stair stepped down since options were offered. Building a little pennant, but rather quiet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:47:38 AM
The five-minute OEX chart shows the OEX rising on the first five-minute candle, pulling back into a bull flag, and now breaking out to the upside again. It's testing the upper resistance of that recent consolidation zone. So far, this is standard bullish behavior, so those in long plays should just be careful with stops and follow the OEX higher. I'm leery enough that I wouldn't personally suggest a long play, even on a breakout above recent highs, and even though it might be profitable. I'd be particularly watchful at 540-542. The upper resistance on the Keltner channels has risen to 541.18 on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:43:00 AM
Most actives ... INTC $27.29 +2.86% Link , MSFT $24.86 +1.92% Link , CSCO $23.23 +2.47% Link , ORCL $11.94 +3.46% Link , AMAT +21.07 +1.44% Link , SNTK $1.29 +17.75% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:37:32 AM
No buy/sell program premiums since the opening buy program.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:33:24 AM
Reader Question: I'm sorry, but I don't understand the OEX rising up to test 490.99....where does that number come from? (Note: This referenced my 10:10 post.)

Response: Don't be sorry. I'm always happy when a reader asks a question about something that's not understood, because that reader is surely identifying a question that other readers might have but be reluctant to ask. As I mentioned in that post, the number came from the upper boundary of the five-minute Keltner channels. It's also congruent with known historical resistance in the 540-542 range. Sometimes a picture is worth 1000 words, to employ a well-worn phrase, so here's a picture of the Keltner charts I watch as they existed at the time of that post (not current): Link Note the upper purple line at 540.99? Although this chart looks confusing at first glance, it consists of three Keltner channels of different lengths, oscillating one within the other. The lines separate and congregate, and have proven uncanny at showing where resistance or support might lie. Some people love them: some don't find them useful at all.

Here's the information on the settings I use, copied from a previous post made several weeks ago: The settings I use are borrowed from another trader, but the way I use them are methods I've developed over the months I've been watching them. Those borrowed settings are all exponential and all use AvgHLC as the source, and otherwise are as follows: shortest-term channel (length 9, multiplier 1.4), mid-length channel (length 45, multiplier 3), longest-term channel (length 120, multiplier 7.2).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:20:05 AM
The TRAN used the 200-ema at 2765.72 as a springboard this morning, but like the SOX, it's now reaching up toward the bottom of the consolidation band from the middle of March and gains might slow. Oscillator evidence is mixed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:18:10 AM
The SOX continues to build on yesterday's gains, but it's now moved into the consolidation zone from the middle of March, so gains might slow, especially as it moves toward the top of that zone just under 490. The 21-dma has slanted down to 485.51 and that might be the next hurdle if 475 is maintained and if round-number resistance at 480 is cleared.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:17:17 AM
QQQ bullish entry alert .... $34.77, stop $33.90 to begin, target $35.50 (may have room to $36.00)

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/25/200,  10:16:19 AM
Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan - Rural economic issues Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:15:04 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:11:36 AM
I forgot to mention in my 10:10 post, as I'd intended to do, that Keltners can give valid breakout signals, too, so it's possible that although the upper line is showing me resistance where I thought it would be, a breakout could occur.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  10:10:12 AM
The OEX is still holding above central channel support on the five-minute Keltner channels, suggesting a possible rise up to test 490.99, the level of the upper Keltner channels. I'm concerned about long plays because the Keltners are showing me likely resistance right where I thought it might be, just after the OEX breaks out of the recent 6-point consolidation range, and in the 540-542 range. This might be a better place to risk a play on a potential rollover, but the 30-minute oscillators are far from overbought levels just yet, meaning that there's no evidence as yet on that basis to support such a play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  10:06:09 AM
Swing trade long alert .... QQQ for $34.77.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/200,  10:01:05 AM
10:00am U.S. FEBRUARY EXISTING HOME SALES UP 2% TO 6.12 MLN

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/25/200,  10:01:00 AM
The Help Wanted Index rose to 40 from 38. This is bullish for jobs as it is the highest level since Feb-2003

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:55:46 AM
Swing trade long cancel alert ... Cancel prior bullish entry point for QQQ of $34.52.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/200,  9:55:16 AM
An 8.5B overnight repo replaces 5.75B expiring for a net 2.75B addition.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:54:35 AM
Sector action shows broad gains.

Airlines ($XAL.X) 51.63 +2.56%, Networking (NWX.X) +1.96%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 119.14 +1.82%, Software (GSO.X) 147.67 +1.82%, Semiconductor (SOX.X) 576.04 +1.68%.

Two sectors red... Oil (OIX.X) 320.17 -0.32% and Drug (DRG.X) 314.30 -0.16%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:53:44 AM
The OEX has moved toward the top of the rectangular consolidation band that has contained its movements over the last few days, but hasn't broken out. It has broken above the 60-minute 18/21-pma's, a change from recent action, and has broken above the central Keltner channel S/R on the five-minute chart. However, it's been trading more in accordance with the 15-minute Keltner chart lately, and it hasn't yet broken above the mid-channel resistance on that chart, with that resistance now at 539.58. What to do? Enter a bearish play on the theory that it will find resistance where it has over the last few days? Go long on the theory that it's about to break out? That last tactic would be a dangerous one, I think, particularly with the 540-542 resistance just overhead. If I were inclined to go long, which I'm not, I'd sure be waiting for that breakout and I'd sure be setting a close stop just below the breakout zone and then following the OEX up rather quickly with my stops. The first tactic might be equally as risky, and the OEX could flop around within that consolidation band a while longer, too, or it actually could be preparing to break out.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/25/200,  9:52:09 AM
That is scary Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:46:49 AM
That's scary, Jeff. (See Jeff's 9:42 post.) I come from a refinery town (Pt. Arthur), and there were accidents enough without terrorists attacking the plants. My husband's family once had to flee his house in the middle of the night, my next-door neighbor was killed in a refinery fire, and once a release from a chemical plant melted the hose off all the girls' legs at Lamar University, where I was studying physics. (Yes, it was the old days when we all wore hose to school. Well, all the females, that is.) Those plants are jammed close to subdivisions and schools.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:42:22 AM
CNBC reporting that FBI has warned Texas refineries of possible attacks. No specific threat cited.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:40:09 AM
Mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute OEX Keltner chart is at 539.60, with more resistance just ahead at 540.19. That means there's a chance of the OEX turning around again just after a minimal break out of the rectangular consolidation band in which it's traded for a while. I've been concerned that, if the OEX is weak and is to continue its downtrend, it might not meet upside targets, so I'm concerned about a possible trap or whippy trading as the OEX tries to bounce. I remain concerned, although understand the possibility for an upside move prolonged over several days, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:39:31 AM
Day trade long alert .... Cisco Systems (CSCO) $22.99 here, stop $22.75, target $23.43.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:36:33 AM
Swing trade long alert ... for QQQ on trade at $34.52, stop $33.90, target $36.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:35:34 AM
On the five-minute OEX chart, the OEX is now free of all resistance except the upper band resistance, now at 540.84. Let's see how far it retraces during the first retracement of the day, however, and whether Keltner band support, at 537.65 and 537.06, hold. Right now, it's still within that 6-point rectangular consolidation range. During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 534.94 to 538.32.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:30:39 AM
Bearish day trade stop alert ... QQQ $34.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:30:27 AM
The OEX is peeking above the 60-minute 18/21-pma's. (See my 9:10 post.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:26:08 AM
QQQ .... Overnight bearish trade update .... QQQ now at $34.67. When market opens, will place a stop at $34.70. If not stopped out, will look for trade back near $34.52 as cover point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  9:18:44 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  9:10:05 AM
With the daily ADX rising to 29.90 yesterday, the OEX has a strong trend in place, and that trend is down. With an ADX that high and with a downtrend in place, we can no longer trust buy signals given by the oscillators and instead should turn to moving averages and other such measures by which to gauge the index's strength or weakness. Of the important moving averages, only the 200-sma and -ema lie below the current OEX price. The OEX has seemed to be drawn inexorably down to a retest of the 200-ema if not the -sma, slightly below the 527.95 level of the 200-ema, with historical horizontal support and the mid-channel support of the weekly Keltner channels also gathering at or near that level.

If we're now watching averages, one of the averages to watch on the OEX over the last couple of days was the 60-minute 18-pma, an average that handily capped all upward movements on the OEX during that period. (An experienced trader has been watching the 18-pma on the intraday OEX charts for a long time, and months ago pointed out its significance to me. I watch both it and the 21-pma.) While that average was capping the upward movement, 532.50-533 support was holding up the OEX on retreats, so that the OEX is building a rectangular 6-point consolidation band. A break of that band, either to the upside or downside, should produce a target about 6 points away from the breakout point, but yesterday's trading has already produced one false breakout (to the downside) and others could come. An upside break would set up a target near the daily 100-sma, currently at 545.80, and a downside break would send the OEX down to test that 525-527 area which it seems almost destined to test, so both these targets make sense.

I'll be watching for a breach of the 60-minute 18/21-pma's, currently at 535.91 and 536.10, as a first sign that upward momentum is getting underway, but the OEX won't have broken above the top of that rectangular consolidation band until it moves above the 3/23 high of 539.26. It goes against my instincts to suggest a long play when I consider such to be a countertrend play with a downtrend in place, as measured by the ADX, and when there's the likelihood of strong resistance from 540-542. However, I want to let readers know what I'm seeing so they can make up their own minds, as such a play might be profitable. It might be choppy and whippy instead, and that possibility should be considered. I'll watch for a break below yesterday's 534.39 low as a sign of a downward move possibly getting underway, although I sure wish we'd get that pop higher for a few days to work off oversold pressure before the markets roll down again, if they're going to do so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/200,  8:46:24 AM
QQQ ... $34.60 in pre-market trade and will get stopped out of overnight short at open. Will look for swing trade long entry with 2-week target of $35.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/200,  8:30:52 AM
8:30am U.S. Q4 GDP UP UNREVISED 4.1%

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS MOVING AVG. DN 3K TO 341,500

8:30am CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED MARCH 13 REVISED UP 2,000 TO 338K

8:30am U.S. Q4 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 3.2% VS 2.7 PRIOR ESTIMATE

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/200,  7:49:27 AM
We await the 8:30 release of initial claims for the week ending 03/20, est. 338K, GDP-final for Q4, est. 4.1%, Chain deflator-final for Q4, est. 1.2%, and at 10AM, the February Help Wanted Index, est. 39, as well as existing home sales for February, est. 6.12M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/200,  7:04:29 AM
Good morning. Before the Nikkei opened for Thursday's trading, market watchers speculated that the U.S. February durable goods and new homes sales numbers might send Japanese exporters higher on speculation that U.S. demand for their goods might rise. Optimism rose that Japan's February trade surplus, to be released at 8:50 Tokyo time, would reveal that consumer spending would increase. Speculation that units at two banking companies might get higher credit ratings led some to believe that the banking sector would climb, too.

As had been hoped, the February trade surplus showed a better-than-expected result, with the surplus up 14.6%. The Nikkei gapped higher by almost 70 points. After spending much of the day oscillating around the 11,475-11,480 zone, the Nikkei finally burst from that zone in the last few minutes of trading, closing higher by 165.92 points or 1.46%, at 11,530.91. Semiconductor equipment makers traded higher, pulling most other tech stocks higher, too. Banking stocks mostly traded higher, too, although Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group did not participate in the gains. The firm's stock had soared almost 8% higher on Wednesday due to a possibility that S&P might upgrade its credit rating, and perhaps it was time for profit taking. Sumitomo Trust and Banking is also under consideration by S&P for an upgrade in its credit rating, and it did participate in Thursday's gains in the banking sector. Despite anticipated gains in exporters, auto makers were mixed, with that performance blamed on the downturn in the dollar against the yen. Some retailers closed higher, both on news-related developments and on renewed interest in domestic stocks.

Stock-specific news included mobile-phone company NTT DoCoMo's announcement of a flat-rate charge for email and Internet services that undercuts the charge of rival KDDI. Other stock-specific news centered on computer-maker NEC after a newspaper report that Hewlett-Packard had chosen the company to provide middleware in equipment HPQ sells globally. NEC gained in early trading, but ended down 0.2%. Its affiliate, NEC Electronics, did gain on news of its own, however. The affiliate signed a several-year contract with Transmeta, with Transmeta agreeing to license a low-power, leakage-reduction technology to the other company.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, but the ones we typically watch all traded down. The Taiwan Weighted closed lower by 0.91%. With South Korea still troubled by political fears, the Kospi sank 0.97%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.27% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.25%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.21%.

European bourses mostly trade higher, however, with tech stocks credited with leading the advances. Goldman Sachs' earnings report also received a portion of the credit for the rebounding European bourses, as did a well-received earnings report from insurer Swiss Re, sending some other insurers higher, too. A slew of upgrades and positively received earnings reports sent other sectors and specific stocks higher. Retailers benefited from both, with Spanish Iditex reported earnings and received two broker upgrades from both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, and with German Metro receiving a GS upgrade to an in-line rating after Wednesday's earnings. Both gained in early trading, with Iditex up more than 10% at one point. Swedish retailer Hennes & Mauritz did not participate in gains in the sector, however, although profits rose higher than expected. Swiss watch maker Swatch reported easing net profits and declining sales, but noted significant improvement in second half sales, improvement that continued into 2004. Investors received that news happily, especially as it was accompanied by an upbeat statement, and sent the stock higher. German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer also received an upgrade, from Morgan Stanley, to an equal-weight rating from its previous underweight rating. German airliner Deutsche Lufthansa forecast that it will see a positive net result on its earnings report and a considerably improved operating result after its restructuring efforts. The airliner was gaining in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had risen 42.60 points or 0.99%, to 4352.00. The CAC 40 had risen 48.92 points or 1.39%, to 3567.37. The DAX had risen 64.32 points or 1.73%, to 3790.39.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/24/200,  10:29:17 PM
My e-mini June futures (es04m) contract with fitted retracement at this Link

Couple of thoughts. Obvious now, but break below 1,132-1,130 may have been beginning of BIG institutional hedge point. Recent break below BLUE 38.2% and settlement below, only furthers case for bullish hedging back at 1,130. "Triple Witch" decline from the then Max Pain suggests there was also positions hedged, where option-related activity had buyers about to be exercised, stepping away from the bullish side as if to say "I don't want it!"

PINK retracement is simple anchor contract high and low settlements, where PINK circle was only settlement, where once es04m settled above a PINK level, did it settle below 2 levels lower.

I benchmark the currently calculated "Max Pain" for SPX June expiration at 1,075, which isn't that far from RESULTING BLUE fitted retracement.

Also make some notes as to thoughts down the road with the S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   3/24/200,  7:48:58 PM
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