Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  5:53:50 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  4:38:10 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  4:33:32 PM
Pacholder High Yield (AMEX:PHF) $9.94 -3.02% .... several questions regarding today's lower trade.

On March 11, 2004, PHF declared a regular monthly dividend of $0.075 per share for the month ending March 31, 2004. The dividend is payable on April 9, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2004. The ex-date for the dividend is March 29, 2004.

The "reason" for Friday's runup was investors buying in order to get the dividend. Today's selling most likely short-term traders selling, with roughly 30-days until the next dividend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:55:58 PM
The OEX momentarily turned down below the 120-minute 100-pma after testing it all day, but the pullback did not retrace even half of this morning's first 120-minute rise, so we can't consider any pullback well underway yet. So far, it could still be part of a bull flag pullback beneath resistance. So, while the action so far fits with a possible inverse H&S scenario with a neckline near 552, we can't ignore the possibility that there could be a push above the supposed neckline area, negating the possibility of the OEX rounding down into a right-shoulder level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  3:47:14 PM
Sell Prog. Prem.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:41:08 PM
The OEX headed down to test mid-channel Keltner support, currently at 548.70 but rising, or lower channel support, currently at 545.97, but dropping. I would expect a bounce attempt at the mid-channel line, although I'm not certain how far it would carry. This action still fits the possible inverse H&S scenario, but that doesn't mean that this is "the" rollover into a possible right-shoulder formation.

Perhaps now is the time to say that although I've been watching for the possibility of an inverse H&S to form with a neckline in the 552 area, that doesn't mean that I feel certain that it will confirm, even if it does eventually form.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:32:51 PM
Here's the recent OEX action in relationship to the 72-ema that I've been watching lately: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:20:46 PM
The OEX five-minute Keltner channels are leveling off, getting ready for another breakout one direction or the other. With the OEX having been overbought on a five-minute basis since early this morning, logic says that the breakout will be to the downside, but logic doesn't always prevail.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  3:15:38 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:11:35 PM
All day today SIRI has been challenging the $3.30-3.31 level that I've been identifying (through the means of a fitted retracement bracket and historical S/R) as possible resistance, but it hasn't yet been able to break above it yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  3:07:09 PM
Swing trade short alert ... QQQ $35.86 here, stop $36.10, target $35.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  3:00:51 PM
Here's a KO chart I posted early in March, complete with the original annotations: Link At that time, I thought it possible that KO could be ready to round up into a right-shoulder level. It has since risen into a possible right-shoulder level, not yet having broken above that level or rounded over into a right shoulder. Oscillators look as if they have some more room to rise, which would fit with the symmetry of the left shoulder. That left shoulder took more than a month to form, so symmetry argues that the right shoulder might, too, while those oscillators continue cycling upward. This is just one possible theory, however, and KO so far trades within the symmetrical triangle marked in red on its daily chart: not the best place for an entry, either bearish or bullish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:56:46 PM
Intel (INTC) $27.63 +0.91% Link ... slipping back below its 21-day SMA after trading above for bulk of today's session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:35:10 PM
Bullish Day trade stop alert ... YHOO $47.45

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  2:34:44 PM
A study of the OEX's 120-minute chart shows that it's pushing down from touches of the 120-minute 100-pma, currently at 551.38.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:23:23 PM
Intra-day observation is that QQQ $35.82 +1.7% and YHOO $47.56 +0.91% looking rather similar on 5-minute charts. QQQ maybe a little weaker as it relates to 21 and 50-pd SMA's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:19:16 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  2:15:11 PM
The Wilshire 5000 is edging above the 21-dma on its daily chart as I type, although by only 3 points, and is inching up on the 10,990-11,000 level that should provide next strong resistance. Of course, I could have said that about the Wilshire almost any time since the markets got past the opening volatility. The Wilshire needs to hold here now while the oscillators catch up on the five-minute chart, however, as they're showing bearish divergence, a possible danger sign.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:11:51 PM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $47.65 +1.10% ... decent little volume spike of 217K in last 5-minutes from $47.55-$47.68. MACD just above Signal on 5-minute bar chart, with Stochs moving to "oversold"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:06:25 PM
Education stocks ... getting some chatter this morning that Piper Jaffray learned that Senator Hillary Clinton has indicated that she will introduce The Nontraditional Student Success Act of 2004 within the next three weeks, which if passed, could significantly increase the maximum Pell Grant awarded to students in an academic year.

CECO $57.25 +3.78% Link , COCO +1.92% Link , UOPX $86.32 +0.37% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:02:08 PM
Buy Program Permium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  2:01:47 PM
Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 320.57 +1.50% ... moves to high of session.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  1:50:31 PM
That OEX test of the 120-minute 100-pma is still ongoing. Link On that chart, the OEX's behavior over the last few hours might be interpreted as the beginning of a bull flag pullback below the resistance offered by that important MA. Such a bull flag would likely undo the possibility of an inverse H&S forming on the OEX chart. We'll have to see, however, as it's far too early in that formation to draw any sound conclusions. I'm just trying to keep all possibilities in my sights. A rollover beneath the 100/130-pma's would fit the inverse H&S scenario because the OEX would still need to roll down to form a right shoulder.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  1:35:36 PM
The OEX is rising within the shortest-length Keltner channel, with resistance just overhead from 550.67-550.91. The OEX needs to break through that five-minute resistance if it's going to turn that shortest-length Keltner channel up again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  1:22:01 PM
Five-minute Keltner resistance is now gathering from 550.40-550.90. The shortest-length Keltner channel I watch has now begun turning down back inside the longer-length channels for the first time after this morning's breakout. This can be a signal that a downturn toward the mid-channel support, currently at 557.56, or the lower channel support, currently at 544.73, has begun, but it could also be just a blip in an otherwise strong day. The OEX sits on nearest Keltner support. An eventual rollover from today's high or anywhere beneath 552-553 would fit my scenario for a potential inverse H&S, but I'm not sure that such a rollover would begin now or even that it will happen. It's just one possible scenario I've been watching since Friday morning, with the OEX so far following that scenario's trajectory. As I mentioned earlier this morning, a breakout above that supposed neckline area would negate the likelihood of the OEX needed to pull back and form a right shoulder.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  1:13:10 PM
Jeff, I'm laughing at myself after your 12:54 post. After your mention of "al_rts" late last week, I spent some time between posts trying to figure out what an al_rts might be. Did it have to do with pivot analysis or was it some esoteric facet of P&F charting that I hadn't remembered? I just figured out that you're substituting "_" for the missing "e" to avoid triggering the alarm on the MM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  1:08:41 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  1:02:30 PM
Spreads/Combos -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection Part II

One of the best ways to take advantage of disparities in option pricing is to use out-of-the-money spreads and if you are a conservative investor, some of the best opportunities are available with "time-selling" strategies such as calendar (or diagonal) spreads, where the front-month options are substantially inflated when compared to the longer-term options. Unfortunately, the near-term implied volatility is currently at the lower extreme for many stocks and that negates the basis for choosing this spread technique; the theoretical advantage of buying cheap options and selling expensive options, as well as the favorable effects of time-value decay on the short position. If you are more of a directional trader, the use of premium disparities can also result in a theoretical edge for vertical spreads such as "bull-call" and "bull-put" positions. Clearly, there are always stocks that are moving in well-defined trends, as opposed to trading randomly, and if you can identify those stocks (and the spreads that will benefit most from their movement), you can consistently achieve a small advantage in the options market. Much of our effort at the OIN is devoted to finding stocks that will continue moving in such trends, so our subscribers can profit from buying undervalued options, selling overvalued options, or initiating limited-risk spreads on those issues. Hope that helps!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  1:01:13 PM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $47.53 +0.84% .... pulls back to 5-MRT BLUE #1 of $47.50. Needs some buyers here, more likely some shorts that didn't like the morning highs of $47.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  12:54:08 PM
QQQ $35.87 +1.84% .... softens up a bit and back to its WEEKLY R1 of $35.87 after session high of $35.96 comes just shy of round-number $36.00.

no program premium al_rts at this point.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  12:52:18 PM
Spreads/Combos -- E-mail Replies: Strategy Selection

(condensed/edited)...and I have noticed some fairly large differences in short-term option IVs (mostly low - which means they are cheap?!?) vs. long-term IVs on stocks in active groups such as semiconductor and steel. I don't see why this happens when the stocks have been volatile lately. Is it because there are no "big" upcoming events or people just aren't buying options? I guess more important is how I can take advantage of this condition with a low-risk strategy. Your thoughts are appreciated! CA.

Hello CA, Regarding your question about option pricing disparities: It is true in a general sense that most options (long and short) in a given class or series are undervalued when implied volatility for the underlying security is low and vice-versa. That condition exists because the prices for exchange-listed options are initially determined by computerized pricing models, however buyers and sellers (through the interplay between supply and demand) do exert a strong influence on the actual market value of the options. Also, because options are highly leveraged instruments, they exaggerate the emotional optimism or pessimism of the market, causing prices to vary widely from their true worth. That effect occasionally produces noticable disparities in option pricing, even among options in the same series, and this condition creates opportunities for spread traders to enter positions with a theoretical edge.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  12:50:47 PM
First five-minute Keltner support is now gathering at 550.50, and then at 549.50-549.88.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  12:50:39 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.39 -6.35% Link ... notably weak for a second-straight session after earnings. Testing a curling higher 50-day SMA of $3.37.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 227.85 -1.2% Link still finds some horizontal resistance at 235, might have to re-test its 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  12:42:48 PM
Ciber Inc. (CBR) 10.93 +3.3% .... Those holding May $7.50 calls (CBR-EU) from earlier this year might look to take profits as stock nears September 52-week high of $11.05, or raise a tight stop just under today's low of $10.62.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/29/200,  12:38:28 PM
Attention wang4eba@xxx.com, my reply to your email cannot be delivered because your account is over quota.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/29/200,  12:28:48 PM
So you're looking at the ramp in the broad market and noticing that the DOW has powered through its consolidation highs at 10326, it is back over the 38% retracement of the November-February rally and yet it just can't gain any further traction. What's going on here -- shouldn't we be in breakout mode? If you read my LEAPS column over the weekend, I'll bet you've figured out the answer. Remember we were talking about the DOW and the fact that a trade back at 10,350 would be a new PnF Buy signal? Well look how long the DOW has been grinding up towards that level. Link

I read that as the bears desperately trying to hold back this vertical move in the broad market, a battle I think they're destined to lose. That's the near-term risk of more bullish action leading into the April earnings cycle. As we've been talking about lately, I feel the long-term direction of the market has once again turned south, but as I mentioned over the weekend, not before another euphoric romp to the upside.

Note, in the time it took me to compose this, the DOW has finally cracked the 10,350 level by a fraction, but it is still serving as a significant barrier. Look for it to be broken more decisively. With the new PnF Buy signal, the DOW is now working with a bullish vertical count of 11,000. With the deterioration we're starting to see in the Bullish Percent numbers, I suspect that is a target that won't be achieved, but that is the risk that bears in this index are currently assuming.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  12:27:59 PM
Someone else earlier mentioned the collapse in volatility. If the usual technical analysis tools by which we watch the indices have any validity on the volatility indices, a question that's been debated in this forum, then there's continued validation of a downturn in the volatility indices. On Friday, the VIX tested its daily 100/130-pma's, ending the day just below the 100-pma. Today, the VIX is falling below the descending trendline that began forming last November. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  12:21:40 PM
Day trade long alert .... Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $47.70 +1.2% here, stop $47.45, target $48.35.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  12:20:14 PM
Covered-Calls -- Portfolio Activity

Our new covered-call candidates are benefiting from the timing of the recent market rebound and two of the "stand-out" issues in today's session are Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:LGND) +$1.31 at $20.47; and Telik (NASDAQ:TELK) +$1.16 at $27.31. Honorable mention goes to Nanophase Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:NANX) +$0.42 at $10.82; and AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS) +$0.25 at $5.44. All of these issues remain candidates for bullish positions.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  12:07:38 PM
Spreads/Combos & Straddles -- Early-Exit Candidate: America Movil (NYSE:AMX)

Another recent pick in the debit-straddles portfolio is offering a favorable "early-exit" opportunity for conservative traders. AMV shares are up $1.12 at $39.35 as Mexican stocks rally amid an improved economic outlook. Our position (MAY-$35C/$35P) required an initial investment of $3.65 and the overall credit for the straddle is currently at $5.00, a 35% profit in less than one month.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  12:04:48 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  12:03:25 PM
The OEX is currently challenging the 120-minute 100-pma at 551.41. At 552.88 is the 130-pma. It was a fall beneath these averages on 3/09 that sent the OEX to recent lows (see the chart linked to my 10:14 post), so this is an important test. A move above the 130-pma would be considered bullish while a rollover beneath the 100-pma would be short-term bearish. Sometimes the OEX moves back and forth across the 100-pma, however, although recently, only one 120-minute candle has composed the test of the 130-pma.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  11:57:54 AM
Spreads/Combos & Straddles -- Volatility Play: Global Crossing (NASDAQ:GLBC)

One of our recent picks for the debit-straddle portfolio is trading higher today, up almost 5% and well above the target exit point in the neutral-outlook position. Shares of GLBC are $0.77 higher at $17.68 and the current price may offer a "second chance" entry opportunity for traders who favor speculative volatility plays.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  11:53:19 AM
The BIX is lagging the OEX by one measure. While the OEX has moved back to its mid-March resistance zone at 550-553, a zone that might become the neckline of an inverse H&S, the BIX has not moved up to challenge the analogous resistance level on its daily chart. Jeff has taught us to watch the BIX, too, when measuring OEX strength or weakness. The BIX is gaining today, but needs to play catch-up if the OEX is going to continue making gains.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/29/200,  11:51:00 AM
Contrary to the leaders I have profiled that are making breakouts or new highs the broader favorite for the crowd is the QQQ. Unfortunately the QQQ has strong resistance from two directions at $36. Getting over this level could be a real challenge. Link

 
 
  Ray Cummins   3/29/200,  11:49:01 AM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

As the broader market soars to recent highs, a number of bullish positions in the portfolio are enjoying renewed buying pressure. Among the best performing issues are American Pharma Partners (NASDAQ:APPX), Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN), Federal Express (NYSE:FDX), Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR), Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC), and Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ:SWIR).

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/29/200,  11:45:30 AM
One of the percentage leaders on the Nasdaq is NVDA which is nearing its current high and has also broken its down trend. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/29/200,  11:42:46 AM
Leading the Dow higher is HPQ which has broken out of its three month down trend. HPQ is the leading percentage gainer and has broken above its 50dma at $23.25 Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  11:40:18 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $79.11 +2.15% Link .... getting a boost after broker Baird said it sees significant upside to current quarter. Baird expects CAT's Q1 EPS to easily exceed current consensus of $0.67 per share, with Baird raising its estimate to $0.86 from $0.71. Baird did issue caution on stock, noting that the UAW (United Auto Workers) contract deadline is midnight Wednesday, and would hesitate to be a buyer of the stock in front of this event.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  11:37:55 AM
I'm going to have to put on my reading glasses to see those five-minute candles on the OEX. Usually when the five-minute candles shrink to this size, it's soon going to be time for a bigger move. Trouble is: which direction will that move take the OEX? It's jammed underneath the next resistance level, looking overbought on a 15-minute basis, but we all know that "overbought" can become more overbought. If the inverse H&S scenario is going to play out on the OEX, as well as on other indices such as the Wilshire 5000, then there's not going to be a lot more upside, but we don't know yet whether that scenario will play out.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/29/200,  11:36:25 AM
Another stock that refuses to show weakness is SYMC. I profiled this as a takeover target by Microsoft in the end of year picks. Microsoft is giving away Symantec virus software with some of its Windows systems. A virus component is something Microsoft needs. However, at these levels I doubt Microsoft would bite the bullet and spend the money. Market cap is still only $14B and less than 1/3 of Microsoft's cash hoard but I would think it would be a stock trade if they did it. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  11:17:17 AM
I second Keene's admonition (Futures side) in his 11:11 post not to move stops based on what you "know" will happen. We've all done that at some time in our trading lives. Occasionally we got lucky and the trade worked out okay, but usually that's the surest way to a much-diminished trading account or even a blown-out one, depending on how stubborn a trader might be about what is "known." Just keep repeating to yourself that you can get back in if the market turns around just after you were stopped.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  11:12:51 AM
TASR just keeps chugging up the rails of the fitted Fib retracement bracket I've been using to watch the stock. Friday, it broke above recent resistance and now it's at a new high or just off it. If that fitted retracement bracket has any validity at all, and it's just guesswork at this point, the upside target is somewhere around $80-81.50. Volume patterns continue to sound a warning, however, as daily volume did not expand with the breakout. MACD show possible bearish divergence, although it's possible that the MACD lines will continue rising and eventually erase that bearish divergence. These two signs signal caution to bullish traders, but don't prove that TASR is going to turn down immediately, or even any time. We might all have our opinions about what TASR ought to do, but it's sure not doing it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  11:05:12 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:55:51 AM
The OEX has now reached upper Keltner channel resistance on the 15-minute channels, too, beginning to show a breakout on that basis, too. Again, this is a time for longs to be protecting profits. Although I personally believe the OEX will have a difficult time pushing much past 552, the possibility of a downturn is not yet showing up in the TRIN level, unless you consider the .34 number to be so low it's serving as a contrarian indicator, but I'd sure be deciding on appropriate stops and adhering to them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  10:46:04 AM
al Qaeda spy chief killed ... earlier this morning, Reuters reported that that Pakastani army killed an intelligence chief for Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network in the 12-day battle on the Afghan border.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:32:14 AM
Here's another example of an index, the Wilshire 5000, that sports a possible incipient inverse H&S formation on its daily chart, as do many of the indices: Link On the Wilshire's daily chart, such an inverse H&S formation might have a neckline near 11,000 or just under, perhaps at about the level of the 21-dma, marked in blue on the daily chart. Of course, a breakout much above 11,000 would mean that the TMW isn't pausing to form that right shoulder, negating the potential formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:25:46 AM
This chart is rather messy with moving averages and trendlines, but notice how the TRAN has moved up against a trendline that's held since early February: Link Other indices are up against resistance, too, so this is a make-or-break point for many indices. Oscillators suggest that the TRAN will continue to try to break through that upper resistance, but we all know what can happen with oscillators, too. Watch RSI, as it's usually the first to hook down, giving a first warning of waning strength, but don't trust it. It's fickle. Just use it as an early warning system.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  10:22:38 AM
QQQ $35.82 +1.71% .... morning high has been $35.90, where WEEKLY R1 at $35.87 has provided some resistance. Might look for a Day trade pullback to $35.60 area at 5-MRT BLUE #1

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  10:17:47 AM
Western Digital (WDC) $11.06 +4.93% .... JP Morgan upgraded to "neutral" from "underweight," saying desktop disk drive conditions are improving and that OEM share price gains are possible in coming months, where WDC's main operations stand to lift profits faster than expected.

JP Morgan did downgrade Maxtor (MXO) $8.00 +0.12% to "underweight" from "neutral" based on challenging conditions, a recent drive quality issue (while under control, would most likely lead to desktop OEM share losses) and MXO's margins will be under pressure.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:14:54 AM
I've been watching the OEX for a while in relationship to its 120-minute 100/130-pma's. Here's what the recent pattern looks like with respect those averages: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:08:54 AM
Caution, bullish OEX traders. The OEX is far extended to the upside now based on the five-minute Keltner channels. Donchian channels, Keltner channels, and now PSAR have all given (long) breakout signals, indicating that a breakout could be real, but when the OEX breaks this far above the five-minute channels, it's either a run-all-day kind of day or else the OEX is vulnerable to a quick turnaround and plummet toward the middle and then the bottom support of the channels, with those numbers now at 544.75 and 541.16, but both rising. It's a time to protect profits closely. Next strong OEX support should be near 548.25. The OEX has also moved close to the area I've pinpointed as a possible neckline for an inverse H&S, so there's another reason to suspect that it could turn around at any point, but none of this is proof that it will just now. Caution is in order, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  10:08:44 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  10:04:16 AM
Have any of you been watching those simulated Parabolic SAR trades on Q-charts? Based on a 30-minute chart, the OEX short entered Friday would have just been stopped out for a 3.58 loss, and a new long entered at 348.63.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/29/200,  10:00:07 AM
Editors Play
The DJX put play was triggered by the Dow moving over 10300. The APR-$102 put is trading at $0.95 cents. The stop loss on the play is 10400 and the profit target is 10100 or lower.

Current play description: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  9:59:28 AM
Here's an update of an OEX daily chart I posted Friday morning and again this morning, in my 8:24 post: Link So far, the OEX is following the possible scenario I depicted in that chart, although the scenario remains just one possible one among several.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:57:23 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,117.60 +0.86% ... bar chart with new WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/29/200,  9:53:35 AM
The Fed has replaced an expiring weekend repo of 4.75B with an overnight repo of 7.75B for a net gain of 3B today. It will presumably be used to stem some of the damage currently occurring in the bond market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  9:45:05 AM
The TRAN has moved above Friday's high this morning. It's up against a short-term descending trendline that began forming in early March, and may even be breaking slightly above that trendline. Just above that is a longer-term descending trendline that began forming in early February, crossing now at about 2880, at the level of the 72-dma that might or might not have some relevance on the TRAN's daily chart. A move above that level would constitute a breakout above the descending regression channel that's been containing TRAN prices for a couple of months. A downturn from that level would reaffirm the importance of that descending channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:44:18 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $46.15 (unch) ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:43:36 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $24.80 +0.9% ... bullish swing trade stop was raised to $22.65 late Friday evening.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:40:17 AM
Equity sector trade is broadly positive with only the Utility Index (UTY.X) 319.05 -0.10% fractionally lower.

Gainers have SOX.X 488.48 +1.92%, NWX.X 271.99 +1.86%, Airline (XAL.X) 55.01 +1.56%, Internet (INX.X) 182.75 +1.42% among early leaders.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:36:16 AM
QQQ $35.56 +0.99% .... updated bar chart with new WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  9:35:32 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 546.25 to 547.49. It's now above the 100-dma, but let's see what happens during the first retracement of the day, which typically begins in a few minutes. The OEX may be headed up to test the 550-552 level that could be the developing neckline level of a potential inverse H&S (right shoulder not yet begun), but if so, it's got to hold that 100-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  9:32:42 AM
The OEX gapped up in early trading, heading right up to a test of the 100-dma at 546.59, with the OEX currently just above that level.

 
 
  Jane Fox   3/29/200,  9:12:53 AM
After jurors said their deliberations were "irreparably compromised" by infighting, legal experts say a mistrial is the most likely outcome in the trial of former Tyco executives. One juror appeared to indicate her sympathy for the defendants by flashing them an "OK" sign.

Notes from the jury and the unusual public gesture by this one juror show that this isn't a typical hung jury of two divided camps, but one in which a single juror, convinced of the defendants' innocence, simply refused to deliberate further making it impossible for the entire panel to reach a decision on the evidence.

"This could be the best thing that happened to the prosecutors," said Steven Kobre, a former prosecutor, now a New York defense attorney. Instead of facing criticism that they couldn't convince a jury of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, he said, "it may be that prosecutors could have proved their case, but were faced with a juror who was either biased or who wouldn't deliberate."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/29/200,  9:10:36 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  8:24:29 AM
My (expensive, well-known) charting service is refusing to give me daily charts this morning or extend the intraday charts back very far, so I'm a bit hampered in making suggestions about OEX direction. Here's a (not current) chart from midday on Friday that explains one possible scenario on the daily chart: Link If that scenario is to develop, then the OEX might be expected to continue climbing through the early part of this week, perhaps up to 552-553. That would fit with Jim's window-dressing theory. Of course, even if an inverse H&S is to develop, the neckline might be a slanting one, which would mean that the OEX might turn around at any time and even inverse H&S's sometimes fail to confirm. I've been operating under the assumption that the current bounce is a completely expected and normal, but countertrend bounce. What it will take to convince me otherwise is a move above that 552-553 neckline area, which would then suggest a move up to retest broken support from early March.

As might be apparent from this chart, it's also possible that the OEX has begun forming another descending regression channel and that it will continue trading down within that regression channel. What do intraday charts suggest? The OEX ended the day right on mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart, so in about as neutral a position as it's possible to be on the basis of that chart. Five-minute MACD was headed straight down, but the stochs were looking as if they wanted to turn up again. The OEX had hugged the upper boundary of that chart for a long time, through more than a day's worth of trading, and when that happens, the OEX is sometimes slung all the way to the bottom support, with that bottom support now at 541.29, a familiar S/R level. From the look of that five-minute chart, the OEX will be likely to try to rise in early trading, a chart outlook that's supported by the futures as I type, but if it does, it's going to face Keltner resistance in tight-packed intervals all the way back up to the 547.20 level. We'll see what's going to happen as that resistance is tested, and if the OEX can hold above the mid-channel support zone, a place where it sometimes does find support. The OEX was above mid-channel support on the fifteen-minute chart, and so strong on that basis, but the channel had begun turning down.

Without up-to-date charts, anything else I might venture would be guesswork.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/29/200,  8:11:53 AM
This looks like a bare rumor to me, but Bloomberg's still running it:

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp., the world's third- biggest gold producer, may receive a takeover offer from larger rival Newmont Mining Corp., the Sunday Telegraph reported, without saying where it got the information.

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/29/200,  8:03:03 AM
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/29/200,  7:04:55 AM
Good morning. Mixed reports surfaced this weekend about Japan's currency intervention efforts. Although a British newspaper reportedly speculated that Japan will end the sales of its currency to keep the dollar firm against the yen, a Ministry of Finance official later refuted that conclusion. While digesting the impact of that information, when the Nikkei opened, investors also focused on optimism for a strong tankan survey result when the Bank of Japan releases that number on Thursday. The Nikkei opened near the flat-line level, dipped about 30 points, and then began climbing, but a bout of profit taking hit in the afternoon. The Nikkei fell throughout the afternoon session, closing down 52.41 points or 0.45%, at 11,718.24.

Autos and techs gained in early trading, while banking stocks were mixed. Mitsubishi moved higher on speculation that DaimlerChrysler would increase its aid to Mitsubishi. Autos mostly closed higher, but many techs erased gains and, among the major banks, only Mizuho Financial managed a positive close. Lately, many domestic issues such as retailers and builders have gained favor, but those sectors were subject to profit taking, too, as were the steel makers. NTT DoCoMo gained 2.7% in Monday's trading, however. In other stock-specific news, Hitachi announced acquisitions of Tokico and Hitachi Unisia Automotive on Friday, with the stock flat early Monday but closing slightly lower. The acquisitions are intended to fortify Hitachi's auto parts business.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 5.57%, recovering some of its recent losses suffered after the political upheaval surrounding the recent national election. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.24%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.46%. Singapore Telecom announced that it would link up with other international carriers to build a submarine cable that would connect Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Western Europe. Alcatel and Fujitsu won the contract to build the cable, but Singapore Telecom will invest up to $40 million. The stock closed slightly lower in Monday's trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.45% and China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.83%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher. Drawing attention today are the climbing chip-related stocks, the growing speculation that the ECB may cut rates, a French regional election that gave the left-wing party the victory over President Chirac's party, and BP's company presentation. That presentation has just occurred as this report was prepared, with the presentation appearing to include a share buyback program as had been hoped. First reports, which may not be complete, indicate that the company did not detail its share buyback plan while weekend reports had speculated about a program that would include 5 billion pounds in share buybacks. It's unclear whether investors will be disappointed in the lack of detail after this weekend's speculation. Other news is still being digested, but BP and fellow oil major Shell had been leading the FTSE higher.

Although the official line among analysts is that the ECB will leave rates alone when it announces its decision on Thursday, speculation continues to surface that the central bank may cut rates. In other news driving trading today, STMicroelectronic's CEO said in an interview that he expected global growth in the semiconductor industry to slightly exceed the SIA's estimate. The auto sector was mixed, with DaimlerChrysler turning down on the same news that sent Mitsubishi Motors higher. In other news, EU officials have apparently turned their attention to the obstructions that French officials have put on a Novartis bid for Aventis, with France's Prime Minister Raffarin's disapproval of any such offer perhaps thwarting a bid from Novartis. Novartis's CEO has said that his company would make the bid only if France's government offered a neutral outlook. Perhaps French voters have turned their attention to that obstruction, too, among other policies, as the French government's economic reform plans were reportedly was reportedly a key factor in the regional elections this weekend.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 27.60 points or .63%, to 4385.10, appearing to continue gaining after the details of BP's presentation were revealed. The CAC 40 is up 7.67 points or 0.21%, to 3600.06. The DAX is higher by 24.23 points or 0.63%, to 3846.56.

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/28/200,  12:12:30 AM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Bernanke
Monetary Policy Modeling:
Where Are We and Where Should We Be Going? Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/28/200,  12:11:47 AM
Speech by Governor Donald L. Kohn
Research at the Federal Reserve Board:
The Contributions of Henderson, Porter, and Tinsley Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/28/200,  8:52:30 PM
Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   3/28/200,  6:08:02 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives