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  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  6:11:53 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

DASHED BLUE may suggest some type of end of quarter balancing was the bulk of today's session. I'm not sure, but notable how today's close, within today's ranges, settle at MONTHLY Pivot.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  5:31:12 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Please make note that at 04:00 PM EST ...

DIA trade was $103.66, 04:15 close $103.92 (for pivot matrix)

SPY trade was $112.88, 04:15 close $113.10 (for pivot matrix)

QQQ trade was $35.69, 04:15 close $35.84 (for closing internals, and pivot matrix)

See Jim's 16:31:45 post as to likely reason why a jump was found from 04:00 PM EST.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  4:30:50 PM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Gramlich
Budget and Trade Deficits: Linked,
Both Worrisome in the Long Run, but not Twins Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  4:25:10 PM
Day trade bullish entry cancel alert .... Cancel bullish entry point of $7.51 for Sify Limited (SIFY) $7.00 +12.70% .

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  4:15:05 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) ... here's a bar chart, which we set up more than a week ago. Link

With a stock like TASR, I think it best not to question things as to company's future, option expensing, valuation, etc, etc. However, can use the PAST to make a plan for future.

One thing I would make note of is that when TASR set prior all-tim high of $67.75, when it fell back below the BLUE 50% retracement, then stock traded sideways for more than a month.

Will you be so focused on TASR for another month, wondering if "that was the top" that life just stinks for another month? Two chances today to take SOME PROFIT off the table at $83. Maybe a stop under $75.45.

PAY YOURSELF FOR THE RISK YOU TOOK, and perhaps the GRIEF YOU TOOK FROM YOUR FRIENDS, when they asked... "are you crazy? TASR in this market environment?"

I can tell you this... IF TASR had still been in the swing trade portfolio from 03/18/04 bullish entry, it wouldn't be there now.

Quotable quote from a trader.... "I wish I had stuck around for more profits, but I'm glad I didn't stick around for the losses."

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  4:11:38 PM
You OEX guys and girls must have had a fun day!

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  4:10:45 PM
In the "don't trust everything you see" department, Q-charts is showing the final OEX quote at 1216.46 on the daily chart. I trust that's a bad tick, or else there was some tape painting at the end of the quarter!

  James Brown   3/31/200,  4:08:24 PM
It looks like we're going to have a pretty good list for the watch list tonight!

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  4:01:17 PM
I agree with Jeff's 15:57 post about TASR, and about protecting bullish gains any might have at this point. As I've said, this one scares me.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  4:00:58 PM
The GHA hardware index, which broke out above its 50-dma yesterday, is back below it with today's 2.44% drop.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  4:00:00 PM
The SOX failed at resistance near 490 again (actually 492 now).

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:59:52 PM
It's too bad that the afternoon spike higher probably stopped out bearish OEX players since today's close continues the possibility of the OEX rounding down toward 541-542. However, tomorrow morning will see a lot of potentially market-moving action across the globe, so anything can and might happen between today and tomorrow's open.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:57:15 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $78.75 -2.52% ... wondering if that $83 was a bull's second chance.

I was tempted to issue a day trade short, with stop just above, but was fighting intra-day update at the time.

Does a trader/investor ALWAYS sell a bullish vertical count? No, but I (Jeff Bailey) usually use it as an EXCUSE to at least take some profits off the table at what can often be a longer-term price objective of market participants.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:55:03 PM
The OEX has been overshooting mid-channel Keltner support today, instead finding support at the mid-length channel among the three that I watch. That lower support is at 550.57, which also marks the bottom of the five-minute ascending regression channel in which the OEX has been trading since yesterday about noon.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:52:40 PM
Today, the OEX spiked high enough to probably shake traders out of bearish plays based upon a possible rounding down into the right shoulder of a possible inverse H&S on the daily chart. However, it didn't spike high enough to negate the possibility of this pattern completing its formation. Here's the chart with today's action included: Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:51:30 PM
QQQ here's quick look at 15-minute interval chart of QQQ. Here I have added an UPWARD TREND that may be in play. Link

In 03:15 update, I talk about "Goldman Sachs rumors as being one of the most frequent rumors in the futures pits. Traders should take with a grain of salt, as they are sometimes used by the other side of the trade, in an attempt to influence other traders.

As an example.... volume had been rather light today, and a bigger bear could have been looking for upticks (somewhere), starts the rumor to bring in some volume, to then short into.

I do NOT know that this is the case, but the rather quick reversal back lower after the "rumor" is a bit suspicious.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:49:15 PM
It looks as if the OEX has a chance at ending the day just above mid-channel Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart, currently at 551.21, in about as neutral a position as it's possible to be. Of course, there's still the possibility for a strong move in the last few minutes, but "hold it steady" appears to be a goal heading into the close.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:39:38 PM
Here's a regression channel on the five-minute OEX chart that the OEX has been following fairly closely since about noon yesterday: Link

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  3:35:23 PM
Reminder - after the close today ET will replace FBF in the S&P-500. Expect selling in FBF and buying in ET. This has been widely expected so the impact may be minimal. RYL will replace ET in the S&P-400.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:33:02 PM
QQQ $35.75 ... this is about where the "buy program" may have taken place.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:30:19 PM
The OEX heads back toward mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart. It's been overshooting that support by a bit today, but it's currently at 551.17.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:23:01 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:15:45 PM
Treasuries ... did finish at their highs of the session.... 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) fell 6.5 basis points to 3.837.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:15:22 PM
The OEX climbed exactly a point above the 120-minute 130-pma, probably hitting the level to stop out any traders who might have based a bearish play on a trade below the 120-minute 100-pma. It moved less than a point above the 553 level that marked a breakout above the possible inverse H&S neckline, but probably still high enough to stop out most bearish players who may have entered based on an apparent downturn below that neckline. Any of you in bullish trades out there, perhaps entered at this morning's dip, should be setting appropriate stops, too, as the OEX zoomed up to top Keltner resistance and then began zooming down again. It feels as if almost anything can happen at the close of trading today.

With so much economic data and market-moving numbers due out tomorrow across the globe, I don't know that I'd hold a position overnight unless I felt like gambling. Have any idea what Japan's tankan survey will show or what the ECB will decide? If you do, do you have any idea how markets will react as a result? How strongly will our markets be impacted by market-moving news overseas? Can you speculate on the effect of window dressing this afternoon and whether it's likely to carry through tomorrow? Unless you have that information, holding over an unhedged options play may be akin to gambling.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:14:48 PM
Rumor that a large buy program from Goldman Sachs is reason for recent volatility.

I didn't get a buy program premium alert though. Not that this doesn't mean a large buy program wasn't in motion, but just didn't get an al_rt.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:11:31 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,000.08 ... either side of 2,000 after session high of 2,004.00.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:09:02 PM
QQQ $35.87 -0.11% .... OK.... back at WEEKLY R1, will bulls defend and get the move higher above $36.00, or have we perhaps just witnessed a little bull trap?

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:06:57 PM
REDF $11.25 +29.01% ... some of the percentage gainers really starting to fall off here.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:05:24 PM
SOX.X 488.41 +0.28% .... quick intra-day reverse from DAILY R1.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:04:21 PM
QQQ $35.85 -0.16% ... things livening up a bit. Quick reverse back lower. Didn't like $36.00.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  3:03:56 PM
The OEX turned back from upper Keltner resistance, but perhaps only regroups before another push higher. It's still marginally above the 120-minute 130-pma, but only marginally.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  3:00:57 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) ... $83.00 +2.7% ....

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:59:53 PM
NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:56:45 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 490.28 +0.66% ... DAILY R1 of 490.33 here.

QQQ $35.94 .... still below its DAILY R1 of $36.06, where session high has been $36.00.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:54:20 PM
Sify Ltd. (SIFY) $7.16 +15.27% ..... didn't trade $7.51 at this point.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:53:26 PM
As the bond market close approaches, TNX is just off its low of the day, having dropped quickly over the last twenty minutes or so.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:52:15 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 553.54 +0.18% .... session highs.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:51:15 PM
Anyone who might have entered a bearish OEX play based on a fall below the 120-minute 100-pma should be noting that the OEX has now moved above the 130-pma on that chart, an ostensible buy signal. Depending on how much wiggle room a trader typically gives the OEX to overshoot a key level, those bearish traders might now be stopped out of the play. Upper Keltner channel resistance lies at 553.79, and a move much above that level would represent a breakout signal. Those traders who felt more bullish today and perhaps entered on the first higher five-minute low this morning are seeing their trades profit, but should be aware of the potential for a downturn at that top Keltner resistance, preparing for that possibility by following the OEX higher with stops.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:50:48 PM
Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC) $11.79 +0.34% .... announces it has received a record number of ball bonder orders for a single quarter, from a growing equipment base. Advanced Technologies (new customer for KLIC), which placed its initial order for ball bonders, with immediate delivery needed at their Taiwan manufacturing facility.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:46:36 PM
Oil Index (OIX.X) 333.89 +1.08% ... as well as Oil Service (OSX.X) 103.78 +1.03% join the Airlines ($XAL.X) 56.64 +3.18% as sectors gaining more than 1%.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:45:51 PM
That represents a higher five-minute high for the OEX, of course. According to the five-minute Keltner channels, it's time for a pullback, with support gathering near 552.60, at 552.10, and then layered closely all the way down to 550.93. Upper Keltner channel resistance is at 553.69, but so far today, the OEX has been turning back at resistance offered by its mid-length channel on the five-minute chart, and that's where it is now. A continued move higher without a pullback first would represent a change in that pattern.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:44:33 PM
QQQ $35.91 (unch) .... just off session high of $35.99

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:42:55 PM
Good Gravy! ... MNST $26.25 +4.12% ... would have been my swing trade bullish target.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:41:10 PM
Day trade long alert setup .... Sify Ltd. (SIFY) for trade at $7.51, stop $7.29, target $8.26. (Note: This would be a bullish sympathy trade with REDF)

Morning high was $8.60. First 5-minute bar range was $6.95-$7.45

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:39:46 PM
The OEX is currently testing the 120-minute 130-pma, currently at 552.67, with the OEX just a couple of cents below that level. The OEX pierced that average once, but has retreated (only slightly).

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:31:54 PM
The OEX is back at the neckline level of its possible inverse H&S.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  2:31:42 PM
... interesting headline...an experimental DNA vaccine has proven very effective at stopping SARS in animal test subjects but there is no guarantee it will work on humans.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:31:20 PM
Here's a chart of the BIX that I showed earlier. Link The BIX did fall out of that ascending regression channel. Well, sort of. It's clinging to the underside of the regression channel, climbing along with the channel. We saw a lot of this type of behavior about March of last year, so it feels very familiar, and I've become leery of drawing bearish conclusions when a bearish action doesn't get follow through with a decline in prices. The BIX has found support on its 30-minute 100/130-pma's and has used them as a launch pad from which to climb the underside of that channel. I would use another break below the 100-pma and today's low as a sign that the BIX has lost its battle to climb along with the channel, but so far, it's holding on and climbing along with the channel.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:30:55 PM
Mamma.com (MAMA) $13.98 +30.55% .... moves to top-5 percentage gainers on NASDAQ.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:29:33 PM
Buy Prog. Prem.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  2:28:40 PM
Sector update @ 2:30 PM ET

XAL airlines index: +3.06%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +2.34%
XNG natural gas: +0.83%
OIX oil index: +0.82%

GHA hardware index: -1.77%
DDX disk drives: -0.68%
GSO software: -0.49%

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  2:25:48 PM
Reuters - claiming a regulator is saying FNM will have to restate earnings

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  2:16:32 PM
Is there any one chart that shows where the indices are going to go this afternoon, or, perhaps more importantly, tomorrow morning after we get the end-of-quarter window-dressing activity behind us and the Bank of Japan has released the tankan numbers and the ECB has made its decision? If there is, I can't find it, and I've been scanning charts for many indices across many time intervals all day. The OEX continues to follow the trajectory that I mapped out on last Friday morning, following the course of a possible inverse H&S, but since there's been no decisive downturn below that neckline, we still can't be sure that the OEX won't instead zoom up through it.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:14:16 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 235.47 +0.38% rather quiet despite the move in Spot Gold.

Iamgold Corp. (IAG) $6.41 -10.97% getting whacked. (a component of the $HUI.X)

Gold bug winners are GSS +5.01% and BGO +4.31% (filled its gap back to upside today)

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  2:03:58 PM
Intra-day view of (REDF) .... Link with the two fitted retracement. Volume has quieted down.... "calm before a storm?"

  Ray Cummins   3/31/200,  2:00:23 PM
Spreads/Combos/Straddles -- Volatility Play: Global Crossing (NASDAQ:GLBC)

Readers participating in our recent debit strangle (APR-15C/12.5P) on GLBC were rewarded with incredible gains this week as the stock soared higher on Tuesday. Today the issue has pulled back to the $20 strike price, down $0.69 at $19.99, and it may be another good opportunity for volatility traders to enter a neutral-outlook position.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  1:55:18 PM
Seattle-based Starbucks (SBUX) held its annual shareholder meeting today. Headlines from the meeting included SBUX reiterating plans to open 25,000 stores. I know what you're thinking. How is that possible? It seems like there's a Starbucks on every corner already. Last year SBUX opened 1200 stores pushing the grand total to 7,225. Management believes they'll eventually hit about 10,000 stores in the U.S., which means the next big wave of expansion is overseas where the company already operates 2,000 stores in more than 30 countries.

Whatever your feelings are on the stock it's been a consistent performer adding 85% from its January 2003 lows. Currently the bounce from the simple 50-dma looks like a new bullish entry point for traders patient enough to let the slow crawl higher work for them. Hmm.. maybe this could be a good covered call candidate?

I've squeezed a daily chart to show its rising channel. Chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  1:50:22 PM
QQQ ... $35.70 -0.58% .... did see afternoon trade high of $35.83 find some selling and push back below BLUE #1 of $35.82, MONTHLY R1 of $35.81, and DAILY Pivot of $35.79.

Here's the same 15-minute interval chart shown in last night's Index Trader Wrap. Link

Can't really say there's all that much telling at this point, but some sellers sticking around below the $36.00 level. Nobody seems overly pressed to unload their longs though.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  1:48:10 PM
Those who might have entered an OEX bearish play based on a rollover beneath the possible neckline of a potential inverse H&S or based on a fall beneath the 120-minute 100-pma would not yet have been stopped out of that play based on a stop above the neckline or above the 120-minute 130-pma. Those who felt more bullish and perhaps entered on this morning's higher low must now study their feelings about the trade with the OEX now having completed a lower high. It looks to me, though, on the five-minute chart, as if the OEX is coiling up inside an equilibrium position on the five-minute Keltner channel chart, with the possibility to break out either direction. Keep an eye on the H&S formations on the five-minute charts that Jane pointed out on the Futures side. This may still remain a choppy trading environment, but if the necklines of those five-minute H&S's are violated, then bearish traders at least have further proof that they're temporarily on the right side of a trade. Be careful out there, as there are a lot of factors at work impacting our market behavior.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  1:45:41 PM
Cancel day trade long alert for Southwest Airlines (LUV) (from 11:05:40) market monitor. Current trade is $14.26 +1.71% ...

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  1:27:07 PM
Reader Question referencing my earlier post on TASR: You make me nervous saying that it could be a long candidate now or you said "keeps it in play."

Response: I'm so glad that you wrote so that I could clear up the misunderstanding for this reader and for other readers. I've always believed that if I've confused one reader, I've probably confused others. No, what I said (or meant) was that today's action keeps the fitted retracement bracket in play, meaning that it might still be significant to price action. I mentioned that the upside target predicted by that fitted retracement bracket was near the P&F upside target, so it might have some validity. If it does, then the upside target has clearly been met. I mentioned that it was not bullish to see volume increase on a down day, so it was never my intention to suggest a long play in this, but instead was pointing out another danger sign to those in bullish plays. I agree with this reader's other (not included here) assertions of problem areas with TASR, and have said repeatedly that this is one stock that scares me. After having been asked to do so by other readers, I sometimes post charts with my observations, but I personally wouldn't touch this going either up or down.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  1:21:51 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  1:19:35 PM
What happened with European stocks at the close today? Did they see a strong upward window-dressing surge into the close? In a word, no. The ones we typically watch climbed in early afternoon then fell steeply into the close, bouncing just off their lows into the close. Here's an intraday chart of the DAX that shows what I mean: Link Remember that these markets are impacted as our markets open, and this morning's disappointing U.S. economic numbers might have had a disproportionate effect since the markets didn't have as much time to recover before their close. The action here might not translate directly into the expected action on our markets today, but it does show that end-of-quarter action isn't always positive.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  1:11:52 PM
The OEX Keltner channels on the five-minute chart are trying to settle into an equilibrium position, perhaps prior to a breakout, perhaps late this afternoon with end-of-quarter window-dressing?

  James Brown   3/31/200,  1:07:55 PM
Time to revisit Deere & Co (DE). Several days ago I listed DE as a potential bullish play in the MarketMonitor if it could breakout from its reverse Head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline (resistance) near $67.50-68.00. Sure enough the recent market strength from last Thursday through Monday helped DE do just that. If the H&S pattern holds true then bulls should be able to target a move to the $75 level. See chart: Link

Looking at the P&F chart we also see the extremely bullish breakout over $67-68 with a quadruple top breakout buy signal and a vertical count pointing to a $90.00 price target. See chart: Link

Currently, the stock appears to be consolidating some of its gains. DE was short-term overbought with its run from $62 to $70 (it hit an intraday high near $71) and is now pulling back on light volume. If we have to see a pull back light volume is what we want to see, which indicates more of a buyers strike as they wait for the dip than true selling. I'd probably consider a bounce from the $67.50-68.00 region as another entry point for bullish positions.

Traders will be interested to know that there have been some very bullish comments on the heavy machinery industry lately as we see a dual-expansion in both the U.S. economy and the global economy. I think it was a CSFB analyst that said a couple of days ago the group was at the beginning of a long and healthy growth cycle. However, one of the challenges for the sector is the extremely high prices for commodities like oil and metals, specifically steel. Another concern would be the weekly chart pattern. It does show the bullish breakout but right now as of Wednesday this looks like a potential reversal candlestick. We still have two days to go for this candle finds a resting place so it could change. Chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  1:04:05 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) ... here's quick look at a bar chart I've put together with TWO fitted retracement. Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:53:45 PM
CNBC discussing reballancing of assets. We're doing this again in this weekend's Ask the Analyst column with the "Beetle's Balanced"

Those that may be participating in an employer-sponsored 401-k, or running their own longer-term investment accounts, now is an EXCELLENT time to begin looking at your longer-term holdings, especially as you prepar your taxes.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:48:42 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) $12.42 +42.43% .... supply/demand notes ... Public float is 7.4 million, and stock has turned just over 3.726 today.

March 15 short interest data stood at a declining 686,274 shares, where at that time, average daily volume of 259,641 had days to cover at 2.64.

Today's gain may have some follow through in session's to come, will keep an eye on it for potential trade setup. Those that want to go on their own are more than welcome to do so.

I slapped a "fitted retracement" on the stock from the 08/14/03 relative low of $4.12, and "fit" the 38.2% at that relative high close of $9.60 (01/16/04), where I kind of like the gap higher opening tick of $11.25 (50% result of fit) as if that was a level where market makers now try to get things squared up and manage inventory.

At 52-week high, long supply should be limited, with more of an inventory build bias, as stock sold to market participants that were buyers on today's news, most likely had to be shorted to those buyers from the market makers.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  12:43:05 PM
SIRI is finally up above the $3.32 level that represented an important Fib level, as well as recent historical resistance. It expended a lot of energy climbing to its current $3.37 level, however, with stochastics and RSI both already having moved into territory indicating overbought conditions. We all know that both can trend there while price moves higher, but it's begun to be a time to move stops up as SIRI's price moves up, too, if in bullish SIRI plays. SIRI broke through a descending trendline on a neutral triangle last week, so some might consider setting a stop on bullish plays just below that top trendline, presumably now support and currently at about $3.19. Since SIRI has traded so strongly in accordance with its rising 72-ema, currently at $2.89, those who feel comfortable with more risk and have a longer-term perspective might set a stop just below that MA.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:34:19 PM
TASER (TASR) thoughts based on point and figure chart and past trade observations at this Link

  Ray Cummins   3/31/200,  12:28:15 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Market Movers: Drug and Biotech Picks

Two of the more-speculative issues we have offered in recent weeks; Northfield Labs (NASDAQ:NFLD) and Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ENDP), are trading at recent highs. NFLD shares are up $1.00 at $16.33 amid speculation on blood-substitute Polyheme and ENDP is up $1.05 at $24.31 after the firm said it received final FDA approval for a generic version of the OxyContin pain medication, which is made by Purdue Frederick. Traders who favor premium-selling positions in the biotech/drug segments might consider (short) "deep-out-of-the-money" puts on either of these issues.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  12:24:31 PM
TASR -$2.00 on comments by CEO that expensing options could cost it the loss of several key individuals.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  12:24:27 PM
In addition to Jim's and Jeff's comments about TASR, I'd like to add that volume is finally climbing above the descending trendline that's capped volume levels since early February, but it's doing it on what is (so far) a down day. That's not what bullish play participants want to see. Link I would have said earlier this morning that today's action rendered my fitted retracement bracket invalid, but in fact, the morning's rise spiked TASR above the "target" level near 81.50 with TASR since then formed a high-wave candle (indicative of indecision) at that fitted retracement bracket. That perhaps keeps it in play.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  12:21:33 PM
A press release out this morning from Perot Systems Corp (PER) says that its management strategist James Champy believes the U.S. is not just suffering from an economic slow down but is in the throes of full-fledged deflation.

An excerpt from the press release: "I'm not an economist, but based on thousands of hours of working closely with Boards and CEOs of companies throughout the country over the past few years, I can tell you firsthand about the forces buffeting American industry," said Mr. Champy. "The dirty little secret is that we are in a period of structural and competitive deflation, and it's not a pretty picture."

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:13:06 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $80.00 -1.13% Link ... following Jim's 11:55:54, I will note that TASR did achieve its point and figure chart's bullish vertical count of $83 this morning.

  Ray Cummins   3/31/200,  12:08:22 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Market Movers: palmOne (NASDAQ:PLMO)

Another recent (bullish) candidate is PLMO and today the stock is up $2.35 at $21.35 as investors speculate on the success of the "Join the Wireless" campaign initiated by Sprint and PalmOne. The two companies have teamed up to help businesses be more effective with the Palm TREO, a smart-phone that combines a full-featured mobile phone and Palm-powered organizer with wireless email and text messaging, web browsing and even a digital camera. The device is being marketed as a product that can help business owners and employees "work smarter, not harder." The technology is definitely the wave of the future and stock buyers are betting that PLMO will climb to the heights of QCOM or RIMM. While that may eventually occur, less optimistic traders might consider selling a MAY-$17.50P to establish a more conservative cost basis in the issue.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:07:19 PM
ON Semiconductor (ONNN) $7.70 -8.65% Link .... "head and shoulder top-looking bar chart. Pretty sharp decline from POTENTIAL right shoulder.

Here's the PNF chart of ONNN Link

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  12:03:15 PM
Index check: What's happening on the other indices that might impact the S&P's or give us some insight into their direction? It was a bit of a mixed-up picture as I began typing. The TRAN has now created another hanging-man candle to go with yesterday's, with oscillator evidence remaining inconclusive. The Wilshire 5000 remains above 11,000. That's good for the bulls. The Nasdaq hovers beneath 2000. Bulls would like to see it above that level, although strongest recent S/R has been near 1982, and the Nasdaq is 10 points above that level. The Dow hovers near 10,350, not able to push above 10,400 today but also remaining just above recent S/R. It's a draw on both those last two indices, I think. The BIX still threatens to fall out of the ascending regression channel that's contained its prices since the 24th, but hasn't done that convincingly yet. It has turned down beneath the 60-minute 100-pma, giving the outlook more of a bearish tone if it continues to sustain levels below that average. Resistance at 590 holds so far on the Russell 2000, but the pullback so far is minimal. With the other averages not looking as strong, though, the Russell is either going to have to recruit some help or else risk being pulled down by the others.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  12:03:10 PM
No.... You're Fired! ... DJT $2.34 -13.65% Link

Actually... just a little pullback today.

Wall Street Journal article that Trump Hotels & Casino Resort risks bankruptcy if a financing deal with CSFB falls through.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  11:58:39 AM
Network Equip. (NWK) $9.85 -18.25% Link .... percentage loser on the big board after company warned that Q4 (March) losses are now seen between $0.14-$0.18 per share on revenues of $26.5-$27.5 million. Company's prior guidance was for revenues between $30-$35 million.

Intra-day note: Opening 5-minute bar was 10.95-10.38.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:55:54 AM
TASR - The morning spike has faded and TASR is now flat for the day after being up +$6 earlier. What a roller coaster.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:52:39 AM
As I suspected, the OEX is finding support at the mid-channel level on the five-minute Keltner charts, at least temporarily. Chop, chop.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  11:51:57 AM
Rediff.com India Ltd. (REDF) $12.70 +45.64% Link ... percentage gainer after company announced it has entered into strategic alliance with Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $49.03 +0.49% Link to power Yahoo! India shopping channel.

Intra-day note: Opening 5-minute range was 11.25-13.20

  Ray Cummins   3/31/200,  11:48:23 AM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Market Movers: American Pharmaceutical Partners (NASDAQ:APPX)

One of our recent favorites for "premium-selling" positions is on the move again today. Shares of APPX are up $2.21 at $47.50 as shorts try to "cover" the rally to new all-time highs. Our sold puts (expiring in April) are comfortably profitable, however bullish traders might consider selling the MAY-$35P on any pullback. That strike price is near a recent support area (NOV-FEB trading range) and well below the 50-dma.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:43:19 AM
The OEX looks to be breaking down out of that flag formation we had been watching on the five-minute chart, although it's now hitting mid-channel Keltner support and that might arrest the breakdown. Those OEX traders who might have entered a bearish OEX play based on a move below the 120-minute 100-pma this morning would not yet have been stopped out based on a move back above the 120-minute 130-pma. Those who based an entry into a bearish play based on a possible rollover beneath the neckline of the potential inverse H&S would not yet have been stopped out by a move back above that neckline. Those who saw bearish price/stochastic divergence at yesterday afternoon's peak and then a fall beneath yesterday afternoon's rising trendline would not yet have been stopped out by a move to a new five-minute high, although there might have been some worry about the move that retraced more than 50% of the decline to this morning's low. Despite that, I still wonder about choppy trading conditions this week as markets digest the implications of all the developments I listed in my 11:21 post. Maybe some market participants are convinced that the events will send global markets higher and are grabbing to each support level as a reason to buy the dip, while some are convinced that events will send global markets lower and use each bounce as an excuse to sell.

  Jane Fox   3/31/200,  11:35:20 AM
Dateline WSJ The Treasury tapped civil servants to calculate the cost of Sen. John Kerry's tax plan and then posted the analysis on the Treasury Web site. A federal law bars career government officials from working on political campaigns.

The Treasury analysis doesn't mention Mr. Kerry by name. Rather it sketches out the potential cost of a tax plan that rolls back tax reductions for taxpayers with incomes above $200,000 -- the nub of the Democratic presidential candidate's plan. The result, the Treasury said in the analysis posted March 22, would be a tax increase of as much as $477 billion over 10 years on "hardworking individuals and married couples." The same day, the Republican National Committee issued a press release in which it unveiled what it called its "John Kerry $pendometer," and cited the same $477 billion figure as the cost of "raising taxes on the top income bracket

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:32:22 AM
While I've switched to watching the OEX based on its 120-minute 100/130-pma's, as those averages seem to have strong relevance on that time interval, the BIX moves more in accordance with the same averages on the 60-minute chart. Here's a chart showing these averages, with the BIX currently just below the 60-minute 100-pma, and also depicting the rising regression channel in which the BIX has move higher over the last week: Link This chart also shows that the BIX has not quite reached the 350 level that represents the upside target from the inverse H&S on the 60-minute chart, and there's some danger that it might not meet that upside target, as it threatens to fall through the bottom support on that rising regression channel.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:31:05 AM
PPI for February will be released on Thursday This was scheduled for March 12th and was delayed by computer problems.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:24:22 AM
I removed the PMI components table I posted earlier. Evidently many readers keep a small MM window open on their desktop and that style of post sometimes impacts the automatic width feature. If you see a post like this in the future please do not hesitate to email and we will fix it immediately.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:21:08 AM
This current climb on the OEX five-minute chart is retracing more than 50% of the fall from yesterday afternoon's late-day peak, so that action questions whether it is some type of distribution form. The rise looks like a bear flag, but it's not acting like one in that respect. Bearish traders now hope for a lower five-minute high while bullish traders hope for the opposite. The market has much to digest today and the rest of this week, as inflationary pressures due to rising oil prices battle with the effect of disappointing economic numbers, as U.S. investors study expectations for further economic numbers this week, as Japan ends its fiscal year and looks forward to the release of the tankan survey numbers tomorrow morning, and as Europe pays close attention to expectations for the ECB's meeting tomorrow. For all those reasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see some choppy trading conditions. I can barely name all the factors impacting trading globally this week, much less weigh each one.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:17:14 AM
VRTS Has also seen their symbol change to VRTSE for non timely filing of their 10K.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  11:14:58 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:14:26 AM
SONS Sonus Networks dropped off my radar screen today as Nasdaq changed the symbol to SONSE due to recent events. It is still trading in the $3.75 range but well off the $10 high in January.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:12:42 AM
Reader Request: Would you have a graph of TNX where we can see what you are referring to in your remark?

Response: Better than my posting a graph is a link to Jonathan's report, in which he includes both a graph and a discussion of his views on the TNX: Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  11:05:40 AM
Day trade long alert .... let's try an airliner from the long side with Southwest Airlines (LUV) on a pullback to $14.11, stop $13.98, and target that BLUE #6 at $14.43. LUV is trading $14.21 +1.28% here. XAL.X 56.48 +2.89% session highs.

Opening 5-minute bar was $13.91-$14.01.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  11:04:41 AM
Not the fastest moving stock SBC remains a breakout candidate (one way or the other). Chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  11:04:06 AM
In last night's Futures Wrap, Jonathan mentioned that the TNX was within "spitting distance" of 3.92%, but that bonds were "still just one bad economic report away from finding a renewed defensive bid." This morning, that one bad economic report sent the TNX down, currently at 3.86%, with daily RSI hooking down. The TNX remains within the recent consolidation band, however, perhaps pulling back into a formation that might resolve into a bull flag. It's just far too early to tell, especially with the TNX remaining within the recent consolidation zone.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  11:01:27 AM
XMSR - is hitting a new two month high at $28.65 this morning and nearing its all time high at $30.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  11:01:02 AM
QQQ $35.77 -0.38% ... session low did see trade at RED #3, and to the penny at $35.61. Intra-day BEAR wants to see sellers at RED #1 of $35.82.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:56:10 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $49.12 +0.67% .... also has a jobs posting part of its business model.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:54:42 AM
Update on EBAY... the stock has hit the $70 mark this morning and is bouncing off its session lows for another try at a breakout. Jim mentioned EBAY was at a buying opportunity when it traded down to the $65 level on March 23rd. Chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:54:10 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $25.61 +1.62% ... has broken above that downward trend (approx. $25.40).

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  10:51:24 AM
So far, the OEX is turning down at the 50% retracement of the drop from the late-day peak to this morning's low.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  10:48:42 AM
The funds have to close the Nasdaq over 2003 to produce a positive quarter. The Dow has to close over 10453. The S&P is already positive and the Russell is up +6% for the year. The Wilshire is positive by more than +200 points. Only the Dow appears to be in danger of a negative finish. They can jerk the Nasdaq around by 10 points fairly easily but adding +100 to the Dow from the current level could be a challenge.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:46:50 AM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 16.66 +2.21% ... here's a daily interval bar chart of the VIX.X, which I've shown more frequently with WEEKLY intervals. Link

I'm keeping closer eye on VIX.X these days after seeing SPX bullish % reverse to "bear confirmed" status. When this happens, we're on alert for institutional put buying to hedge stock inventory.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:45:36 AM
Delta Airlines (DAL) is up 2.8% to $7.97 and was challenging resistance in the $8.05-8.10 range earlier this morning. There is stronger resistance in the $9.00 region.

American Airlines (AMR), the largest airline on the planet, is up 3.67% to $12.70 and breaking out over its 200-dma. Its MACD has produced a new buy signal but there is plenty of overhead resistance.

CAL is up 3.29% to $12.55. LUV is up 1.49% to $14.22 and challenging resistance at its 50-dma. ALK is up 2.07% to $24.55. JBLU is up 1.9% to $25.08 but still has resistance near $25.60.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  10:42:30 AM
Jane and I have been discussing lately how much weight to give the standard tools of technical analysis versus pure price movement. I'm taking a middle-of-the-road stance, I think. I love technical analysis and believe it helps to pinpoint warning signs of impending movements. However, I've always believed, too, that indices or stocks should show me that the events forecast by technical analysis are coming to pass. For example, even though I've been tracking that potential inverse H&S on the OEX since Friday morning and so far the OEX has been following the red pathway I laid out almost exactly, I wouldn't have jumped into a bearish play the moment the OEX hit the 552-553 potential neckline level. I would have wanted price action to show me that the OEX was rolling down. That may be happening now, although frankly, with all the global economic developments expected in the next 24 to 48 hours, I'm expecting some choppy trading conditions.

We're seeing an OEX downturn below the 120-minute 100/130-pma's that I've been watching, especially as they track the potential neckline level fairly well, but the OEX appears to be coming back to test those averages from the underside again and this test may tell us much. An argument could have been made for a bearish entry on a fall beneath the 120-minute 100-pma this morning, but if such an entry were made, then a stop needs to be based on the reasoning for that entry, too. For example, in this case, a move back above the 120-minute 130-pma, currently at 552.67, would perhaps signal that the original reason for entering the bearish trade was being negated, and a stop should perhaps be set just above that 130-pma, giving the OEX a little wiggle room. If a trader had instead entered a bearish play on a rollover beneath 553 resistance, then perhaps that trader would be watching for a move above that level as a sign that the play wasn't working as expected. A bearish trader who entered because of bearish price/stochastics divergence seen on the five-minute chart as yesterday's late-day peak was reached might then be watching the current rise to see if it retraces more than 50% of the drop from the late-afternoon peak to this morning's low, a measure of whether it's a bearish distribution pattern or not. A trader who entered a bullish play based on this morning's bounce from above 549, a slightly higher low on the five-minute chart, should then be basing an exit on a fall an appropriate distance below that 549 level or perhaps on any lower five-minute low. In other words, I use technical analysis to warn me of possible developments, but do try to always require price action to confirm what I thought might occur. Sometimes we're all human and try to bend price action to fit the model we have in our heads, but I try.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  10:39:44 AM
Fed Reserve is now reporting that there is no truth to the Greenspan rumor. This is a change from their previous "we don't comment on rumors" stance.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:39:36 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 56.11 +2.22% ... now sector winner. Disk Drives (DDX.X) 123.08 -1.06% and Oil Service (OSX.X) 101.59 -1.10%.

Airline and Oil Service seeing a bit of an inverse reaction to the OPEC news.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:37:21 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 550.51 -0.36% ... session low was 549.40, but did not see trade at that MONTHLY S2 of 549.26, so not all that much weakness in my opinion. Not yet at least.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:35:37 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 346.73 -0.36% ... off its lows of 345.97. Rather tight DAILY S2 (345.57) to DAILY R2 (349.61), but coming back up to DAILY S1 (346.78) here.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:32:27 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:27:42 AM
Bulls looking for strength in this market are probably focused on the 2.8% jump in the homebuilders. I think Beazer Homes (BZH) looks like a bullish candidate with the recent (upward) consolidation along its 40-dma. Its MACD is about to produce another buy signal. Target the early March highs near $112.50.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  10:25:26 AM
The OEX is so far finding resistance at the mid-channel level on its five-minute Keltner channel level. Stochastics cycle higher as the OEX pauses and tries to turn down again: not a bullish development if it continues.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:23:37 AM
Sector Update @ 10:30 AM ET

DJUSHB homebuilders: +2.49%
XAU gold & silver: +1.23%
XAL airlines index: +1.27%
OIX oil index: +0.66%

(biggest) Losers:
GHA hardware: -1.80%
DDX disk drives: -1.33%
GSO software: -0.69%
XBD broker-dealers: -0.71%

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:20:44 AM
P.F.Chang's China Bistro (PFCB) isn't moving much (-56 cents) after pre-announcing better revenues this morning. Total revenues for the quarter surged 29% to $169.8 million on a 4% increase in same-store sales. PFCB will officially announce its full earnings report on April 21st.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:17:01 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $79.27 -0.91% Link .... which did trade $80 yesterday...

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,328.60 -0.51% Link .... which did trade 10,350 on Monday. Here's a INDU PnF chart we worked on in the 03/22/04 Index Trader Wrap Link where at this point, it is the stock above 10,450 which is trying to figure out what to do after seeing trade at 10,050.

My feeling is that with the INDU Bullish % ($BPINDU) still "bear confirmed," that I'd be selling into strength. While the INDU hasn't surged on the recent buy signal, I would have thought sellers would have kept it from generating the sell signal.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  10:14:23 AM
TASR - got a shock again this morning. Now up +$6 for the day.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:12:58 AM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 16.89 +3.74% .... above the 16.78 level.

SPX trades 1,122.21 -0.42% here.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:12:28 AM
Ouch! Apparel-retailer Christopher & Banks Corp (CBK) is down 10% and falling fast after reporting this morning that total sales for the month of March (four weeks ending March 27th) were up 9% but that March same-store sales were down 7%. CBK is breaking through its 10-dma, 21-dma, 100-dma and approaching the $20 level.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  10:11:28 AM
I am continuing to hear rumors about Greenspans health today. Nothing specific but even CNBC is reporting it now. This is a recurring rumor whenever the shorts are in trouble and need to offset a positive bounce. Must be a lot of shorts being squeezed over the last four days and they are trying to offset the end of quarter tape printing for today. The rumor was out before the reports. Maybe it was self defense against potential better than expected economics. Looks like they could have kept that rumor in their pocket for a later day.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:11:16 AM
QQQ $35.66 -0.69% ... I have session low being $35.62 at this point. RED #3 at $35.61 of 5-MRT. When I first plugged in the opening 5-MRT, I saw that RED #4 was right at yesterday's mid-session low.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:08:07 AM
We were chatting about The Stanley Works (SWK) several days ago as it coiled to breakout over resistance at $40.00. The breakout occurred on strong volume and shares ran from $40.00 to almost $44.00. Well this morning Raymond James cut the stock from "strong buy" to "market perform" based on valuation. SWK gapped down at the open to $41.30 but has been climbing ever since and is back to $42.47. It will be interesting to see if SWK rolls over or keeps climbing after it fills this morning's gap.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  10:08:02 AM
I failed to mention in my 10:06 post that I had turned to a 15-minute Keltner chart since the OEX had fallen beneath mid-channel support on the five-minute chart.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  10:06:02 AM
It's likely that we'll see an OEX bounce beginning soon, with next Keltner resistance at 551.25 and then gathering thickly from 552.80-553.68. It's going to be the magnitude of this bounce, if it comes, that tells us more about strength or weakness. If the lower resistance holds, weakness should be confirmed. A failure to bounce will confirm weakness and likely confirm that the OEX is headed down to test mid-channel support again, currently at 547.26, or lower channel support, currently at 540.85. A test of that lower channel support would fit with the potential inverse H&S scenario I've been watching.

  James Brown   3/31/200,  10:03:04 AM
One of the few earnings announcements this morning was Monsanto Co (MON). The company reported 70 cents per share or 14 cents better than estimates. Revenues jumped more than 15% to $1.49 billion, well above consensus estimates. Shares of MON had hit a new two-year high yesterday and we're seeing some very mild post-earnings selling today.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:01:32 AM
QQQ $35.70 -0.57% ...

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  10:01:08 AM
The PMI and FO are far from positive for sentiment. The PMI while still over 50 and representing the 11th month of expansion did show some problems. The Prices paid component was about the only component to rise.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  10:00:23 AM
Western Digital (WDC) $11.34 +1.34% Link ... Upgraded at Thomas Weisel to "outperform" from "peer perform", saying channel checks suggest company is poised to gain share in March quarter.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  9:59:51 AM
Yesterday, the TRAN printed a potential reversal signal, a hanging man candle. Today's downturn from this morning's high keeps alive the possibility that the TRAN could be reversing. However, the downturn has only taken the TRAN down far enough to retest the more-than-two-month descending trendline that it's been piercing on an intraday basis lately, but closing along. That support could still hold. Oscillators are inconclusive, of course. What else would we expect at a time when we most need evidence as to which direction an index or stock might head?

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:58:52 AM
Chicago PMI = 57.6 , (est 64.0, last 63.6)
Factory Orders = +0.3% , (est +1.5%, last -0.5%)

  James Brown   3/31/200,  9:55:18 AM
Enjoying an upgrade from Piper Jaffray is Fastenal Co (FAST), which was lifted to an "out perform". The stock is up 2.69% to $52.96 but off its best levels of the day. Its short-term technicals like the RSI and Stochastics look a bit overbought and considering the rebound from its mid-March lows near $44 traders bullish on the stock probably ought to look for FAST to fill this morning's gap and wait for the bounce near $51.50-52.00 before considering any positions.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:53:47 AM
QLogic (QLGC) $33.88 -20.66% Link .... some talk that Emulex (ELX) $20.41 -10.36% Link and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $4.18 -1.41% Link were the two OEM's to push out quarterly orders.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:51:44 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $47.12 +0.87% Link

Yesterday I received an e-mail from trader in ragards to heavy open interest in the NEM April $45 calls (NEMDI), where as of last night, OI was 15,217, and could this have affect on NEM for pullback to $45?

It could, but always difficult to assess. One thing a trader might do is begin tracking the daily open interest. Thought might be if stock declines and OI falls, then might suggest there were a lot of covered calls written on thought stock was pegged under $45 into April expiration, where recent gains might now have covered call writer buying those calls back on dips. Current "Max Pain" for April is $42.50.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  9:50:11 AM
Here's another potential reason for a pause today, as expressed on the COMPX daily chart: Link The MA is the 72-ema I've been watching for a while with respect to some tech-related stocks and indices.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:47:09 AM
A little more than ten min until the final reports for the morning

Chicago PMI (est 64.0, last 63.6)
Factory Orders (est +1.5%, last -0.5%)

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:44:48 AM
Sector action broadly lower, but fractional losses found. AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 237.42 +1.21% only sector showing +/- change greater than 1%.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  9:44:24 AM
The OEX 120-minute 100-pma lies at 551.37, and a fall through that level would be a first sign of a potential rollover in the OEX below the potential neckline area of the possible inverse H&S I've been watching since Friday morning. (Did I hedge that statement enough, do you think?) The OEX has turned down below that level as I typed, but be careful just ahead of the 10:00 numbers. The SOX has already turned down below its 120-minute 100/130-pma's, although the SOX doesn't seem to trade as closely in accordance with these averages as does the OEX. The COMPX and NDX are turning down again to retest these averages, but haven't moved below them and could still bounce from them. The Dow is falling below the 130-pma, but hasn't yet touched the 100-pma. The Wilshire and Russell turn down, but are far from testing these averages as yet. Watch the 11,000 level on the Wilshire, however, with the Wilshire at 11012.86 as I type. So far, the potential inverse H&S scenario is still in play on the OEX.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:43:21 AM
Sell Prog. Prem.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:41:36 AM
The NY-NAPM rose to 271.8 for March up from 267.2 in Feb. This was a minor gain considering the recent pace of growth which has seen it rise from 227 only four months ago in November. The rate of climb may have slowed but everyone appears to be glad it did not reverse. There are problems in the components with the 6-month outlook dropping to 62.5 from 78.6. This is a huge drop. The current conditions component fell to 59.2 from 69.8. This is not a good sign for the trend and suggests next month could see a reversal.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:40:59 AM
American Power Conversion (APCC) $23.18 +2.02% Link ... Smith Barney saying they would use recent weakness as buying opportunity ahead of current quarterly earnings as they continue to see many positive data points (strong sales reported at the V.A.R. level) that support their above-consensus view for the company's first quarter results. Smith Barney reiterates their "buy" rating with target of $31.

PnF chart shows APCC did exceed its current bullish vertical count of $23.50.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  9:36:45 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 551.63 to 552.48. For those who would like to use these numbers to calculate ranges for Jeff's 5MRT system, see Jeff's 1:02 post for a spreadsheet that will calculate those levels for you.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:36:39 AM
The Consumer Comfort Index rose for the second consecutive week and could be suggesting a bottom in this index. It hit a ten month low earlier this month at -22. The jump from -21 to -17 this week was the strongest gain in ten weeks.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:34:31 AM
QQQ $35.86 -0.12% .... first 5-minute bar is a big one from 35.95-35.82.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  9:34:08 AM
As Jim mentions on the Futures side, we have economic numbers being released at 10:00 this morning, so be cautious ahead of those numbers.

I would also add that one should exercise caution about all decisions today. Not only is today an end-of-quarter day for us, but also it's an end-of-year day for the fiscal year in Japan, perhaps accounting for the late-day surge in Japan's Nikkei, rescuing it from a loss instead of the minor gain made today. In addition, tomorrow sees the release of the much anticipated tankan survey in Japan, with hopes soaring high about that number, setting up a possibility for a sell-the-news event. As if that weren't enough, the ECB meets tomorrow. Although the official consensus is that rates will remain the same, speculation is rife about a possible rate cut, so there's a possibility for a market-moving event there, too.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:33:59 AM
The Mortgage Application survey showed that loan deman declined -2.1% last week with rates ticking up to a 3 week high. The refi index fell -2.6%. This indicates that even with the shapr drop in rates three weeks ago to multi month lows was not enough to generate significant refi volume. Everyone who was planning to refi may have already taken the plunge and the benefit from the current rate drop may not be as strong as expected.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:29:41 AM
BP Amoco (BP) $51.12 Link higher at $51.35 on OPEC news. BP's Texas City refinery is running at reduced throughput after a fire late Thursday, which is largely contained, is thought to have been started at a furnace in a gasoline production unit.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:29:35 AM
BBY - gained +2 before the bell after their earnings soared to $1.42 per share and up from 1.16 in the same quarter of 2003. This was +3 cents above the estimates. Revenue jumped nearly +$1.5B and they said they expect earnings to jump another +15% to +20% in the current year. Sales of flat panels and high end products were helping their business.

Circuit City also posted better than expected earnings. Good news for the retail sector.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:26:39 AM
QQQ gaining $0.02 to $35.93. Did see pre-market trade at $36.06, but has slowly been edging back toward yesterday's close of $35.91.

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:24:31 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   3/31/200,  9:21:48 AM
OPEC to cut production OPEC ministers said they would cut production by 1 million barrels per day, starting April 1.

June Light, Sweet Crude futures (cl04m) spiked to $36.05, but currently trade unchanged at $35.50. Highs for this contract were set last week at $36.88.

  Jim Brown   3/31/200,  9:15:10 AM
QLGC Down nearly -20% on a downgrade this morning. QLGC was a current put candidate.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  8:46:12 AM
What's going to happen with the OEX today? Here's a chart I've been posting since Friday morning, showing where the OEX ended trade yesterday: Link So far, it's been following the red trajectory I marked out as one possible scenario, but some of the other indices were also showing the possibility of an inverse H&S, with some of those indices breaking out above the proposed neckline areas and hinting that the OEX could do so, too. While it's possible to argue for an ascending neckline on some of those other indices, here's another chart that argues that the OEX might break above its proposed neckline area: Link

That's what might happen, based on the action of other indices. While we need to be aware of those other indices, what do the OEX intraday and daily charts show? At the close of trading, the OEX appeared to be headed back up to test upper Keltner channel resistance on my five-minute chart, currently just above 553, which would fit with the neckline test being shown on the daily chart, too. While that test is occurring, however, the 15-minute Keltner chart shows possible bearish divergence, with some 15-minute oscillators beginning to show bearish inclinations. Bearish divergence should serve as a warning, but doesn't necessarily mean that the warned-about weakness will occur. The 30- and 60-minute oscillators present inconclusive evidence. Daily RSI flattens near a neutral level while MACD has just made a bullish cross, but from below signal. This is one of those cases where we have to see what develops, waiting for price to lead us. So far, the possibility still exists of a rollover near 553, but the behavior of other indices warns us that a push through that level might be possible, too. Such a push might send the OEX up to test the 557.58 level, the 61.8% retracement of the most recent fall (see the first chart in this post),the 561.50-563 level that is next historical resistance above that, or the 569 level that marks the current location of the former supporting trendline depicted on that first chart with this post. A rollover near 553 might suggest a push down toward 541-542, with 532-534 being a next downside target if that level should fail.

Be forewarned, however, that the OEX (and SPX, to some degree) are trailing some other major indices by these measures watched on these charts. Perhaps because of the BIX's recent behavior, the OEX is not as strong by these measures as are some of the other indices. As I mentioned yesterday, unless you believe the OEX is ready to play catch-up, it may not be the strongest index upon which to base an index long play. Of course, when I've tried to hedge positions in the past by placing longs on the strongest-behaving index and hedging with a bearish position on the weakest-behaving one, that's the very moment when the weakest one does decide to play catch-up with the others. Perhaps watch the BIX for strength or weakness as one measure of whether the OEX is ready to do that or not. Watch the other indices, too, particularly the Russell 2000 and the Wilshire, being cautious of long positions if these start pulling back below key levels.

  Linda Piazza   3/31/200,  7:07:08 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei ended its fiscal year in overnight trading. According to one source, the 47% climb across that fiscal year was the largest one-year climb in more than 30 years. The daily climb wasn't anything spectacular, however, as the export-heavy bourses labored against the impact of a rising yen. The yen jumped to a new almost-four-year high against the dollar in overnight trading. The Nikkei opened in the green by almost 25 points and climbed in early trading. It dropped until mid-afternoon, however, falling almost 200 points from its high of the day, with the rising yen credited with sending export-related issues lower. Equities mounted a more-than-120-point climb from the mid-afternoon period on, however, and the Nikkei managed a close in the green by 21.71 points or 0.19%, at 11,715.39.

Major banking issues closed higher. The auto sector couldn't climb into the green, however. The troubled Mitsubishi Motors was the subject of a newspaper article claiming the company would halt production in the U.S., speculation that a spokesperson denied. Other newspaper articles conjecture whether the Development Bank of Japan will be asked to extend loans to the company. Mitsubishi closed lower by 0.8%, but performed better than some other auto stocks. Techs were mixed.

Other Asian bourses mostly closed higher, with semiconductor stocks appearing to perform well in many of those bourses. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.42%. With Hynix Semiconductor soaring 7.5% and Samsung Electronics gaining, too, but with the banking sector showing weakness, South Korea's Kospi managed a 0.81% climb. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.78%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.32%, with Semiconductor Manufacturing International showing a 4.4% gain. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.01%.

Most European bourses trade higher. That's true of the CAC 40, too, even though the French statistics office Insee lowered the H1 economic growth forecast to 1.4% from its previous forecast of 1.7%. France Telecom perhaps helps to lead French equities higher, with a gain after the company announced a reorganization that will divide the company into five units and the resignation of the CEO of Orange's mobile unit. That resignation came after the CEO had led a successful restructuring for the unit, with the restructuring completed ahead of schedule, so the resignation was taken as a positive sign.

Two European stocks seeing big jumps today are specialty chemical group Rhodia and Dutch retailer Vendex KBB. Rhodia gained after announcing that it will commence a discounted equity issue and a bond issue as part of a financial deal. Vendex KBB's announcement was that it had received a 16 euros per share offer from a consortium, with the previous expectations having been that it would receive a 14 euros per share offer. In other stock-specific news, Bayer abandoned plans to sell genetically modified maize in the U.K., and the stock was dropping. Morgan Stanley lowered Danone's rating from its previous equal-weight rating to an underweight rating, citing the impact of low-carb diets on fresh dairy products, and that stock was easing in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is one of only two European bourses showing losses, and it's down by only 4.60 points or 0.10%, to 4408.20. The CAC 40 trades higher by 23.68 points or 0.65%, to 3643.78. The DAX has gained 17.25 points or 0.45%, to trade at 3891.29.

  Jeff Bailey   3/30/200,  1:02:16 AM
5-minute retracement ... or 5-MRT as it has been called in the Market Monitor. If you don't have access to a retracement tool that gives you RED #6 to BLUE #6, here's an Excel spreadsheet, which allows you to type in the opening 5-minute bar chart range of stocks/indices you like to trade on an intra-day basis. Link

Just fill in the LIGHT BLUE and DARK PURPLE and the rest of the levels for each row will be calculated for you.

  Jeff Bailey   3/30/200,  8:34:59 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   3/30/200,  8:34:50 PM
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