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  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  7:02:11 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  5:39:11 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  4:04:31 PM
Bulls might want to give Ceradyne Inc (CRDN). the once over. The last three days of gains have been produced with stronger than average volume and today broke out above the $40 mark. The next true resistance level is in the $46.40-48.50 range. The two weeks of strength have broken through P&F resistance. CRDN is due to split 3-for-2 on April 8th.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  4:00:10 PM
Magna Intl (MGA) is producing a major breakout over eight-month old resistance in the $82.50-83.60 level. The move has produced a new buy signal on its P&F chart, which points to a $105 price target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:59:33 PM
Day trade close alert for TBUS here at $5.72

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  3:58:28 PM
We've had Anthem Inc (ATH) on the watch list a couple of times last week as it traded back above the $90 level. The stock is really on the move now after Cigna's pre-announcement today. Traders can look for a dip and try to capture a move toward the $100 level. ATH is up 2.31% to $93.61.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  3:56:25 PM
St. Jude Medical (STJ), a rival in the medical device field to GDT, is also on the move. STJ has been consolidating under its 50-dma for the last two weeks and is finally breaking out today. This looks like a bullish entry point with its MACD About to turn positive.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  3:54:49 PM
Another buy the dip/bounce opportunity could happening in Capital One (COF). The stock broke out of a narrow bull flag pattern a week ago and dipped toward price support near $74 on Friday. Traders are buying the dip today. Its P&F chart is in a nice buy signal.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  3:52:27 PM
Heads up on Guidant (GDT). The stock is up 2.5% and breaking out over resistance at its 40 & 50-dma's as well as the $65.00 mark. Its MACD has produced a new buy signal and this could be an entry point for a run toward the $70 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  3:52:11 PM
What if you're in a long OEX position: should you hold overnight? The Donchian channels suggest you should. The breakout above the top of the bullish right triangle suggests you should. The triangle breakout suggests a move up toward 568-569, but it may not be a straight climb.

Other evidence suggests danger in holding over. Keltner channels suggest a breakout in progress, but risk down to 558.91 or 556.55, with that support rising steeply. A consolidation zone begins at about 563, and gets heavier at about 564, suggesting that gains may slow. Today's candle will be a tall white one suggesting a possible smaller, consolidation-type candle tomorrow. If you bought a breakout above 560.40, you've got about a 2-point cushion as I type, with the OEX jammed under next resistance. Tough decision.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:35:49 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:33:14 PM
Cephealon (CEPH) $59.30 +1.21% ... just now hitting original day trade target of $59.25, but moves to session high here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  3:31:35 PM
The OEX is now slightly above the 561.23 level that represents the 38.2% retracement of its bear-market decline. Careful, though, as it's also looking overbought on a five-minute Keltner channel basis. Follow your stops higher if you're in a bullish play. Both Donchian and Keltner channels have given breakout signals, and the OEX also broke out above the top of a bullish formation (that bullish right triangle I've mentioned a couple of times today), so all looks good so far, but protect profits as there's still lots of resistance to be faced.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:22:14 PM
Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 603.47 (unch) ... has clawed back to unchanged. Small cap day trade bulls want more gains to the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:11:58 PM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) $6.14 +90.6% .... here's intra-day chart of TBUS. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  3:10:45 PM
New recent high on the OEX. Careful of a fake-out move. If you're entering bullish based on such a breakout, be ready to honor your stop if needed. The upside target should be somewhere near 568.25 based on the target generated by the bullish right triangle, but we can all point to multiple possible resistance levels between here and there.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  3:02:56 PM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) $6.20 +89% ... what I've done on a 5-minute chart with this small-cap is simply taken a conventional retracement from morning low $2.93 to the morning high of $6.00, then stacked that retracement on top.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  2:56:33 PM
[T]he OEX might chop between resistance and support for a while before it sorts out direction. That's a quote from my 9:12 post. What would it take for a directional move, I questioned then? We would need to see some of the strongest components of the OEX to move in the same direction. Are the financials trying to get their feet under them and rise, as evidenced by the BIX? The BIX has been headed up since about 1:10, having just broken above the 342.25 resistance and confirmed a miniature and lopsided inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. It's got its 100-dma at 343.16 just ahead, though, with the upside target on that inverse H&S taking it up to retest that important MA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:46:25 PM
Day trade long alert for Digital Recorders (TBUS) $5.60 +76% here, stop $5.10, target $6.90.

See bottom of 14:18:56.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:42:58 PM
Renaissance Convert/Pref 6.08% (NYSE:RNR-C) $24.55 -1.4% ... here's a NYSE-listed convertible preferred with a 6.08% coupon getting hit to the downside today. Would suggest the backup in Treasury YIELD having impact on a lot of fixed income products.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:37:47 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  2:35:53 PM
The OEX is testing the ascending trendline that it began forming off this morning's 11:10 low of 558.46. Day-trading OEX bulls don't want to see the OEX move below that trendline and then below that low before achieving a new high of the day. Moving to a lower low would suggest a trip down to mid-channel Keltner support at 558.30 currently or lower channel support at 555.87 currently. That would be bearish on a day-trading basis, but what about on a longer-term basis? Such a move would do nothing more than confirm a wide rectangular consolidation band from 555.88 to 560.40, however. What happens after that would tell us about strength or weakness on other than a day-trading basis. We're looking for a break out of that band either direction as a guide. Of course, if one operates under the belief that the OEX is going to maintain that consolidation band, this would be a good place to enter a bearish position to ride it down to the bottom of the consolidation band, but since the OEX has not yet broken through the ascending trendline on the 30-minute chart, formed off the April 1 low and since until it does, the current formation continues to look like a bullish right triangle with a flat top, that might be a risky belief.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:18:56 PM
Critical Path (CPTH) $4.91 +144% ... Jeff: Thanks for the heads up on CPTH! I sold too soon, but traded for nice gain. Any other small priced stocks that look interesting?

Hmmmm.... Here's one that has a similar intra-day pattern that CPTH did at time of mention. TBUS $5.35 +66.14, which jumped at the open, but see the similar little pennant building on the 5-minute chart? 5-minute MACD just approaching zero?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  2:17:55 PM
VIX: A while ago, about March 24 or 25, a reader wrote inquiring about advice the reader had heard. A much-touted market analyst had suggested going long on stocks if the VIX closed beneath 17.50. This reader wrote to several of us on the MM, and we all cautioned against using the VIX as a timing tool. At the time, I said that if that were an equity, I'd worry about whether the breakout was sustainable due to the way it was behaving since breaking out, printing larger-than-normal candles going both directions. I posted a chart showing how the VIX had been moving with regard to its daily 100-dma and also pointed to a descending trendline then slightly lower than 17.50, thinking that trendline might provide some support. I would have considered a close lower than 17.50 to be necessary, and even then, I'd suggested needing confirmation from equity charts before entering long plays. Despite the troubling behavior of the VIX since the breakout, I didn't think there would necessarily be a quick close below 17.50.

There was, on 3/26. Using the OEX because that's the index I watch most closely, a buy on the close would have had one entering a long play at 543.52. In this case, the VIX did work perfectly, but did it do so alone? I'm more worried than ever that subscribers will now believe that the VIX works well as a timing tool. Sure did this time. Doesn't always.

Let's examine why it worked this time. First, I've heard from other subscribers that the advice originally offered by that analyst was based upon several market conditions, including the VIX level, and that's how I would use the VIX, too. I'm sure the questioner was aware of and in tune with these other conditions, since that questioner obviously researches thoroughly and questions many aspects of trading. I'd let price action actually guide my entries and exits, but would let the VIX warn me to prepare for a market turning, just as I let OBV (with an equity), the TRIN, and other conditions give me warnings.

Price action did give a buy signal that day, and it actually gave it ahead of the OEX 543.52 level on the close. On that day, I commented on the breakout above a consolidation zone, creating an upside target about 6 points above the breakout zone. Since then, I've mentioned and followed a Donchian channel breakout that occurred that day as well as a Keltner channel breakout that occurred that day. So, there were signs other than the simple VIX close below 17.50 that equities might be headed higher. A trader who entered long on that day could have then been watching the VIX level as a guide to whether the trade should be carried overnight, for example, but only as one indicator among many. To the reader who wrote originally, I hope you profited and enjoyed a great long play in your chosen vehicle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:12:29 PM
Lehman Bros. (LEH) $81.32 -1.63% ... weak again today and may be tied to the Treasury trade and weakness in Treasuries.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:10:55 PM
Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 502.49 -0.15% .... hardly budging today.

SIFY kind of stuck between $7.30-$7.51 still.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:08:25 PM
Ooops! I see Linda's 10:34:14 just now. Sounds the same.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:06:52 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) ... CNBC just saying there may be some type of evening news report about stun guns causing death.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  2:03:40 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR $79.61 -6.29% .... Good morning Linda & Jeff, TASR down 4.00, Joe Kernen on CNBC this morning mentioned some news on the Stock.. only caught the last seconds of his comments "quote... let's see if this will effect the stock this morning..unquote" unable able to find any news on Dow Jones News Service, would you know of any News that related to the stock.... Thank you so much for M/M posting if possible. Michael & Team

I saw a blurb in some news item regarding Dan Rather report somewhat negative on taser guns over the weekend. But that's it.

Will note that stock did trade a morning high of $83.00 today, and as noted in the past, this was PnF bullish vertical count.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/5/2004,  1:58:45 PM
Reader Question: Could someone please address how the strength in the dollar will affect the NEM call play....right now gold is down..will gold turn around as/if the dollar stabilizes?

Response: NEM $44.78 (-1.10) In order to address the question, we really need to have an opinion on whether Friday's Jobs report has changed the fundamental landscape for holding bullish positions in the precious metals sector. I personally don't think it does, but then I typically work with a longer time horizon. For traders looking at a 1-3 day hold, then a bullish position in NEM absolutely does not make sense, as the stock has tipped over from its recent breakout and is back to testing key support in the $44-45 area. But traders looking for an entry point into a trend that is once again turning bullish should be looking for support to hold at higher levels (ideally near current levels) and provide entry when the stock begins to rebound once again.

Could NEM continue to fall from here and the dollar continue to climb? Certainly -- we must always concede that the market can do what we least expect. But I think the better odds are to expect the dollar's rise to stall and gold and gold shares to resume their ascent. There are a lot of strong fundamental and technical reasons for gold, mining stocks and NEM to continue to rise and just like the recent pullback in the broad markets was clearly an entry point for the bulls, I view this pullback in shares of NEM as an entry point for the bulls. I've gone into the specifics of this in much greater detail in my LEAPS column in recent weeks. But remember, we want to buy when the stock begins to rebound, we DO NOT just buy when it reaches a price level is hit while the stock continues to fall. That's called catching a falling knife and the results can be most unpleasant.

So what would it take to turn me near-term bearish on NEM? At a minimum, the stock would have to break below its 50-dma ($43.64), then break below the rising trendline from the late-January lows and finally trade the $41 level, which would break the 200-dma ($41.43) and more importantly issue a new PnF Sell signal. Until then, the technicals are aligned towards the upside and I would be looking to buy the dips.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  1:53:36 PM
IPO MEMY hasn't triggered a play, either bullish or bearish, according to Jeff's 5MRT system. It's currently trading within its first five-minute range, just a touch under the first five-minute high. It's currently at $8.68, with that first five-minute high at $8.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  1:46:31 PM
Are we going to have an OEX triple top? Or is the OEX going to break through to the upside? On the OEX 30-minute chart, the formation is beginning to look a little like a bullish right triangle, with a flat top near 560.36-560.37 and an ascending supporting trendline, but 30-minute oscillators are doing the thing they do when the OEX consolidates--either flat-lining or behaving in a manner that doesn't give any clues.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  1:17:03 PM
Our markets might not quite be sure what to do with today's economic data, spending much of the day wandering around, but the European markets sure knew what they wanted to do with our good number and with their own less encouraging economic data. They climbed as a result. The FTSE 100 was down when I made my first report his morning, but it closed up 15.10 points or 0.34%, at 4480.70. The CAC 40 climbed 41.29 points or 1.10%, to close at 3781.20. The DAX climbed 41.00 points or 1.02%, to close at 4048.60. Each closed off its high of the day but well off its low of the day, after having climbed during the afternoon session. Both the FTSE and the DAX had actually been negative at one point in the day, although only minimally so on the DAX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  1:12:44 PM
Day trader's trick/tip .... day traders that may have had their sell orders lined up at $59.24 or $59.25 in CEPH and showed their hand to the market maker (not good), sometimes it is helpful to watch for some larger trades, or matching trades as to you sell order to hit the bid. When I see one, I'll cancel my sell order (at the higher level) in hopes it makes the market maker think "OK, that day trader is gone, I don't have that overhead day trade seller now." Then... should stock rally back, then hit the bid with the market order.

What this can do is have the market maker thinking that he shook you out to selling on the little pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  1:06:42 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  1:02:51 PM
Investors are cheering news that Patterson Dental Co (PDCO) is buying the ProVet unit from LexTron Inc. ProVet is a vet supply company and will join PDCO's Webster Veterinary Supply division. (Reuters). Shares of PDCO are up 3.85% to $74.92.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  12:58:32 PM
We're getting a lot closer to our profit target on M G M Mirage (MGG), an OI call play. The stock is up 4.16% to $48.72 and we currently plan to exit near $50.00. Players should be adjusting their stops.

The move today was driven by a positive pre-announcement from rival Mandalay Resort Group (MBG). MBG is raising its earnings outlook to $1.10 per share versus consensus of 84 cents per share. MBG said profits were rising due to a 30% jump in slot revenues and a higher revenue-per-available-room. Shares of MBG are up 4.43% and above round-number resistance at $60.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  12:58:00 PM
IPO MEMY is trading now, with a first five-minute range from a low of $7.10 to a high of $8.70, with an open at $7.50 and a close at $8.61. As I type, MEMY is at $8.94, within the neutral zone. Remember, I'm watching this for paper-trading purposes only.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  12:53:25 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX), a new call play, is up 3.91% and breaking out over resistance at $76.00 to a new all-time high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:52:59 PM
Day trade bullish target alert .... so close at $59.24 +1.10% (BLUE #7, or PINK #1). Can lock in gains here at $59.22 bid

BTK.X at session high and round numbers of 555.00 +1.5%

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  12:50:47 PM
OI call play CAT is up another 1% to $82.07 after breaking out over the $80 level on Friday's rally. Unfortunately volume is running pretty light.

rival Deere Co (DE) also looks bullish with a nice breakout over the $70 level after several days of consolidation between $69 and $70. The reverse H&S pattern predicts a run to the $75.00 level.

Cyclical Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is also trading higher and breaking out over resistance at $80.00 (although the real test appears to be the $80.50-80.60 range).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  12:49:23 PM
Reader Question: After trying to figure this out on my own (unable to) please explain mo-mo.

Response: As always, I'm glad you asked the question, since if one reader doesn't understand, many more readers are probably silently puzzling this out on their own. According to Investopedia.com, a momo play (they don't hyphenate the term) is a "slang term used to describe an investment purely as a momentum play, not worrying about the company's fundamentals." They further clarify by saying that it's a type of play practiced by day traders. When I refer to the momo days, I'm referring to late 1999 and early 2000, when these types of plays abounded.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:48:31 PM
Raise day trade bullish stop alert .... for Cephalon (CEPH) $59.09 +0.85% to $58.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:46:53 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $75.00 +2.01% Link ... "X" gets the square at $75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  12:39:29 PM
The OEX didn't retreat all the way to mid-channel support before heading up again, a bullish action. It needs to confirm that bullishness by a push to a new high, however. Otherwise, it's just settling into a coiling behavior, which wouldn't surprise me at all since I expected choppy trading conditions at all. The Keltner channels are trying to settle into an equilibrium position, although it might take several hours for that goal to be accomplished. If so, because the settling into an equilibrium position usually precedes a breakout, will we then be looking at breakout potential one way or the other by today's close? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  12:35:41 PM
We have another IPO today, and it's my intention to track it using Jeff's 5MRT system when it begins trading, as I've been doing over the last week. If we're going to return to the mo-mo days, then we want to have good tools to use to track possible daytrades in IPO's, right? As I've mentioned over the last week, I'm testing this out to give us anecdotal evidence of how it's working, but I'm not trading these myself based on so little information and wouldn't suggest that you do so yet, either. Maybe trading patterns for IPO's thwart every convention which appeared to make Jeff's 5MRT workable for the daytrades he watches, for example. However, since we don't have historical trendlines, MA's, or enough data to give us good oscillator activity on IPO's, I thought Jeff's 5MRT might be a good tool to test.

Today's IPO is MEMY (Memory Pharmaceuticals). It should have already begun trading, I thought, but I don't see it on my screen as yet. It priced below its original range, nearly 50% lower. Its introduction has already been delayed two weeks, and we saw an example last week of one IPO not appearing on the day it was scheduled to do so, so maybe MEMY won't, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:35:09 PM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.38 -3.89% ... defensive below the $9.40 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:34:11 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.86 -2.22% .... trying to put in an intra-day base of consolidation, but Gold and gold stocks become/look somewhat suspect after Friday's non-farm payroll.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:32:44 PM
Cephelon (CEPH) $58.88 +0.49% ... session highs and BLUE #4 (58.85)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:25:50 PM
Cephalon (CEPH) $58.74 +0.25% ... here's intra-day chart with stacked 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  12:24:34 PM
Bulls need to get the OEX above 560.40. Until it moves above that level, the OEX is in danger of confirming a double-top formation, with the 4/02 high at 560.36 and with this morning's high at 560.37. The bears need to see the OEX driven below 555.62, the confirmation level of the double-top formation. Until it's driven below that level, there's the possibility that the OEX will move to a new recent high instead of confirming the double-top formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:13:20 PM
Day trade long alert ... Cephalon (CEPH) Link here $58.73, stop $58.49, target $59.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  12:08:56 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 553.13 +1.14% Link ... closing in on a 52-week high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  11:58:21 AM
Critical Path (CPTH) $4.05 +100.49% ... GE announced it would deploy CPTH's Identity Management Solution.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:54:02 AM
The TRAN has drifted back, retracing more than 50% of Friday's flagpole rise. Support is usually found at the midpoint of any larger-than-normal candle, which Friday's was, but that support has been breached only minimally so far. The TRAN's 50-dma is below at 2924.62.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  11:52:15 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,487.85 +0.16% ... notable declines for EK -1.66% and T -1.22%, while IP -0.86% also weak ahead of April 8 reshuffle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  11:48:13 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 342.28 -0.61% ....

With banks, gold, and Treasuries lower, while dollar rises, sure has the look of economic growth with Fed tightening on its way.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:40:17 AM
7 Eleven Inc (SE) is up more than 4% to $16.43 this morning after Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a "buy" with a $22 price target. The rally today is a breakout over its 50-dma and the $16.00 level, where SE has a lot of congestion. Noteworthy is the better than average volume that has fueled the rally over the last several days. Also interesting... the recent bottom near $13.60-13.70 was a bounce from its 50-week moving average.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:39:09 AM
Thanks, Jane. I did know about changing servers, of course, but not about clicking on the chart and then hitting "Home." Unfortunately, that tactic didn't work, but now I'll know it for the next instance when it might!

 
 
  Keene Little   4/5/2004,  11:35:20 AM
Linda, you've probably already tried this, but switch servers on QCharts (I find -09 usually works for me when other servers are struggling) and click on each chart and hit the 'Home' key to get them to update.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:34:26 AM
We've had our eye on L-3 Communications (LLL) for several days now. The stock has been a great example of relative strength the last three weeks with a constant climb higher in a very narrow channel. Friday's candle looked like a potential bearish reversal but the stock remained in its up trend. This morning traders are buying the dip after LLL announced two new contracts with the U.S. Army for $84 million (combined total). LLL remains very short-term overbought.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:33:17 AM
It's unclear whether the OEX is going to be able to steady off at this level of Keltner support and head up to the top of the channel again, or whether it's instead going to sink toward mid-channel support, now at 557.25. The five-minute MACD is trying to halt its downward slide and the histogram levels are growing less negative, but they haven't turned positive yet and the shortest-length nested Keltner channels still heads down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:29:39 AM
Jane mentioned losing Q-charts. I haven't been able to get much historical data on intraday charts on my 5.0 version of Q-charts this morning, much less see a daily chart on anything, but the 4.5 version I kept on my laptop (for just this reason) is working fine. I think I've mentioned before that I always keep the old version of my charting services, brokerage pages, etc., on my laptop because I find this happens often with a new version. (Now if I could just remember that my mouse for my desktop doesn't work my laptop, too, I'd be just fine. The multiple monitors don't give me a problem, as I already work with multiple monitors, but the fact that I have two computers going with a separate mouse for each is somehow throwing me.)

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:27:50 AM
Kohls Corp (KSS) was on our weekend watch list as a bearish candidate given the trend of lower highs and the breakdown under technical and price support. Friday's failed rally looked very bearish and the stock is still sinking (slowly) this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:24:38 AM
Back in the mo-mo days, were you ever in a bullish play (since there weren't any other kind back then!) only to have a Barron's story make or break your Monday? Barron's reportedly had positive stories or mentions on AIG, NOK, and NTRT, and had cautious comments on REV and AVP, among others. How are those stocks doing today? (All comments refer to prices as I was checking charts, making my way through the post.) AIG has climbed above January's high, now at an intraday level not seen since March, 2002, but the monthly chart shows some resistance from here to $77.65. AIG hasn't yet fulfilled the upside target of an inverse H&S visible on its monthly chart. NOK trades slightly lower this morning, and, in fact, there's a distinctly H&S-ish look to its daily chart that bears watching. It's a bit messy because of the gaps sometimes seen in this ADR. Daily oscillators are more bullish than bearish. NTRT saw a big gap this morning and then a climb above the recent $13.00 resistance, but selling took hold, and the stock is currently below that resistance but still above its opening level. REV opened lower, but tried to move higher this morning, too, pushing all the way up to test its $3.05 50-dma. It's fallen back now, with that daily candle in danger of forming a bearish candle by day's end, perhaps a doji. REV's 200-dma is at $2.90, however, ready to provide support, so there's a mixed picture there. REV had seen an appropriate explosion of volume on Friday when it moved above that 200-dma. AVP opened lower and currently is still lower.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:23:39 AM
Cigna Corp (CI) is up 11.77% to a new one-year high after the company raised its earnings outlook this morning. CI is now predicting that Q1 earnings will fall in the $1.75 to $1.95 per share range. This is a significant jump from previous guidance of $1.20-1.40/per share. The average analyst estimate was closer to $1.32 a share. CI should report at the end of April.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:20:03 AM
Jeff mentioned the OHP takeover rumors earlier this morning. The stock is still climbing, now up 11% to $54.75. This is a new all-time high.

 
 
  James Brown   4/5/2004,  11:14:54 AM
Sector Update @ 11:15 AM ET

Winners:
SOX semiconductors: +3.74%
XAL airlines index: +3.59%
GHA hardware index: +3.05%
BTK biotech index: +2.81%
INX Internet index: +2.65%

Losers:
DJUSHB homebuilders: -4.26%
BKX banking index: -1.20%

Copper futures: -3.79%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  11:13:04 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:07:57 AM
This current OEX intraday move marks the first time since the 2:45 five-minute candle on Friday that any retracement on that five-minute chart has taken the OEX lower than a previous retracement. Note also that at today's high, an equal high with Thursday's, there was bearish price/MACD divergence on the five-minute chart. That five-minute MACD has plenty of room to go to the downside, but the OEX is at first Keltner channel support, and may rise back toward 559.45-559.60 before it tests the downside again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  11:02:50 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $74.48 +1.3% ... technical ... above 50-day SMA ($73.75)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  11:02:20 AM
Sometimes my charts get so messy with trendlines (not the ones I post, which I try to clean up a bit) that I'm tempted to just erase them all and begin over, but then some seemingly inconsequential trendline seems to be having an effect on trading. Here's one: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:48:16 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.23 -1.43% ... session lows.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 231.72 -2.02% ... session lows.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.15 +0.72% .... while 30-minute delayed, making post-09:05 AM EST low of 89.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:45:34 AM
Are the big caps ready yet to play catch up to the small caps that have performed so well? Some of our other writers have mentioned INTC and GE, so I turned to look at CSCO as an example of a much-watched big-cap stock. While some of the indices I watch failed to stick around long enough to form a right shoulder on their inverse H&S formations, CSCO appears to have done so. It's possible to label that formation rectangular consolidation rather than an inverse H&S, since the head formation was only slightly below the shoulder levels, but in either case, the upside target would be about the same. That upside target would be at about $25.50, near the top of the gap down from early February, so it's not yet clear whether this big-cap is going to start a new upward trend or merely try to retest the gap resistance. That gap resistance begins at about $25.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:45:03 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 603.25 -0.03% .... still tentative after morning's 52-weeker.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:40:48 AM
Keeping an eye on Sify Ltd. (SIFY) $7.33 +3.23% Link from last week's mentioning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:37:36 AM
Intel (INTC) $28.21 +0.32% ... here's a bar chart of INTC with retracment set for reverse head/shoulder pattern. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:34:14 AM
TASR: One of our readers wrote this morning asking if we'd heard what CNBC's Joe K. was saying about TASR. I hadn't heard the mention, but did find news that CBS was promoting a negative piece to be aired tonight on TASR. A helpful subscriber wrote in and said that Joe had commented that Dan Rather had made a reference to 40 people being killed (rather than "stunned") from stun guns. Thanks to the reader for the information.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:26:48 AM
The OEX pierced that upper-channel Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart by a bit, but is now turning down within the channels again. The 70.7% retracement of the decline from the 3/5 high to the 3/24 low lies at about 560.26, and the OEX has been finding resistance from that level up to 560.40.

I mentioned this morning that bearish price/MACD divergence had been building on the OEX from about the 29th until the present time on the 60-minute chart. This morning, the MACD lines are trying to kick up again. They still haven't erased that bearish divergence yet, but watch what happens there. On the daily chart, MACD has not yet broken through its trendline of lower highs, although it's testing that trendline today, but RSI, often a leading indicator, has done so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:25:43 AM
Reminder Markets will be closed for trade on Friday April 9 (Good Friday).

Colorado's Spring Turkey season opens this Saturday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:22:56 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 512.32 -0.29% .... narrow range early from 516.45-512.19.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:18:58 AM
Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) 604.98 +0.25% ... edges to new highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:18:27 AM
Reader Question: TASR down 4.00 [at the time of the email]. Joe Kernen on CNBC this morning mentioned some news on the stock . . . only caught the last seconds of his comments, "Let's see if this will affect the stock this morning." Unable to find any news on Dow Jones News Service. Would you know of any news that related to the stock?

Response: I didn't hear the comment, but I find two bits of news that might be important, one perhaps less important than the other. One is that CBS is mentioning a TASR story to be aired tonight, with the promos being somewhat negative. The other news is that Market-Pulse.com has mentioned TASR as one of the stocks it considers looking strong lately.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:11:39 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:09:47 AM
Networking Index (NWX.X) 285.22 +0.68% ... technicals ... above 50-day SMA (284)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:06:31 AM
The BIX continues lower today. At 343.14, it's just above the 100-ema at 341.82 and is sitting right on the 100-sma at 343.13. The BIX tends to violate these averages in a minor way, so it's difficult to consider the bearishness confirmed until the BIX should move below the recent 340.01 low. Stochastics and RSI look bearish, but this could be a possible bounce point, too, with a potential inverse H&S with a descending neckline possible here, too. The OEX needs the help of the components the two indices share in order to move to retest recent highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:04:16 AM
Buy Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/5/2004,  10:02:22 AM
A 6.25B overnight repo just announced is a net gain of 3B against the expiring 3.25B today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:02:06 AM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  10:01:15 AM
The OEX heads back up to test upper-channel Keltner resistance, currently at 559.86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  10:01:13 AM
Buy Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/5/2004,  10:00:29 AM
ISM Non-Mfg Index = 65.8 ,(est 62.0, last 60.8)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  9:59:43 AM
Friday, the TRAN closed above 2950 resistance, but within the 2950-2960 resistance zone. Today, it opened below Friday's close, presenting the possibility of an inside-day candle, but so far, it remains above 2950.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  9:51:19 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $54.75 +8.80% Link ... Wall Street Journal reported that it believes company might be takeover candidate by WellChoice (NYSE:WC) $35.66. Link where WellChoice may be set to offer a 20% to 25% premium over Friday's OHP close of $50.32. Report was mentioned stock-for-stock deal.

Oxford's trade has HMO Index (HMO.X) 978.02 +2.91% sector winner early.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/5/2004,  9:50:22 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries prices slipped on Monday, taking yields to two-month highs, as the market struggled to find traction after last week's payrolls-inspired plunge The day's data on U.S. services sector were also expected to be upbeat, though almost redundant now that the jobs numbers have shown the first real sign of recovery.

The market also faces $25 billion in new supply this week as Treasury auctions five-year notes and 10-year inflation-index paper to raise new cash. Traders already suspect that foreign central bank demand will diminish now that the Bank of Japan seems to have curtailed its dollar-buying intervention.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  9:49:09 AM
Upper Keltner channel resistance on the 4.5 version of Q-charts, the one with complete data, is now at 559.76, with the OEX having just turned down from that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  9:48:34 AM
Pier One (PIR) $22.40 -1.32% Link ... lower after SunTrust Robinson Humphrey downgraded PIR to "neutral" from "buy" based on firm's concern that PIR's brand has slipped a bit and traditional leverage to comparable store sales (timing of circulars, advertising, etc.) may not be as effective as in the past. SunTrust also makes note that PRI is trading 15-times their fiscal 2004 EPS estimates, versus the 5-year mean of 12-times and sees stock stuck between $19-$24 until sales show more momentum.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  9:43:47 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $50.63 +0.99% Link ... new 52-week highs. Piper Jaffray raising their Q1 revenue/EPS estimates above consensus ahead of Wednesday's earnings report and raises price target to $58 from $53 to reflect accelerated growth in core brand advertising and robust demand for its search engine. Raises Q1 rev/EPS to $511.5 million/$0.11 from $505 million/$0.10, versus consensus of $497.2 million/$0.10.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/5/2004,  9:38:45 AM
TASR -3.00 now but +3.00 off its lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  9:38:26 AM
The Keltner channels prove their worth again on the OEX five-minute chart. They had been predicting a move up toward 559.50 resistance before a move down to mid-channel support, and the OEX headed up first. That upper channel resistance has lowered to 558.79, however, at least based on the incomplete data available on the chart, as my charting service again lops off intraday data before March 15. I'm going to switch to the older version of my charting service, still on my laptop, but first I wanted to note that the first five-minute OEX trade spanned a range from 558.17 to 558.81, if my charting service is correct. The OEX is now at top Keltner resistance. While it can stay there all day and even into tomorrow, be careful if in bullish positions because it's now overbought on a short-term basis and will eventually retrace to mid-channel support if not lower channel support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  9:13:51 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  9:12:10 AM
Although the OEX pierced its 50-dma on Friday, it couldn't quite manage a close above that important MA or above the historical resistance at 559.50. That 559.50 level was important resistance as the OEX headed up late last year, and then became support early in the year as the OEX retreated to establish that support. It may now be important resistance again, but that remains to be seen in this week's trading. The 60-minute chart shows price/MACD bearish divergence developing from 3/29 into the end of the week, but that same chart also shows the OEX having retraced slightly more than 61.8% of the decline from 3/5 to 3/24. It's currently just under a 2/3 retracement of that decline. Usually if a market is able to retrace more than 61.8% (Fib number) to 2/3 of a decline, it's showing enough strength to give it a shot at retesting the recent highs, but that close clouds the picture. I had been watching for a possibility that the OEX would pull back to form a right shoulder of a possible inverse H&S. It's telling, perhaps, that although the OEX just charged up without ever forming that right shoulder, the upside target of such an inverse H&S would have been near the January high. Does the failure to pull back and do the necessary preliminary work (weak hands are being shaken out during a right-shoulder pullback on an inverse H&S) mean that the OEX will have more strength in a retest or not quite enough strength for a retest?

Even if that retest is going to happen, which I'm not sure will, that doesn't mean that the OEX will necessarily shoot right up to retest those highs. Daily oscillators prove inconclusive. Daily MACD has made a bullish cross, but from below signal. The MACD histogram is now positive, but MACD lines are now on the verge of pushing up through the signal line, a point at which they sometimes do the unexpected, turning around just when they had seemed strongest. RSI flattened and stochastics began to do so. All these oscillators have a pattern of lower highs that's been building since early January. RSI is usually the first to respond, with trendline breaks on the RSI sometimes giving us a leading indication of what prices might do, too. Watch for a trendline break on the RSI above the descending trendline as a first sign that the OEX might be ready to charge up to retest recent highs. That's been a reliable signal on some recent upside breakouts. Look for a downturn along that trendline as a sign that the OEX may continue its pattern of lower highs.

The five-minute nested Keltner channels I watch suggested at the end of trading on Friday that the OEX might head up to retest that 559.50 resistance again before it turned down to retest mid-channel support, but that was Friday when markets were still reacting to the euphoria induced by the jobs number and before the possible impact on interest rates had been absorbed and the impact of this weekend's violence in Iraq had been contemplated. As I type, futures are slightly lower, but because the OEX is between upper-channel resistance and mid-channel support on the Keltner channels, between upper 1.35% envelope resistance and the central average on the 60-minute chart, just under the 50-dma on the daily chart, and slightly further under several versions of descending trendlines off the January high, we have to see what develops as the markets open. With the financials showing weakness and the semi-related stocks showing strength, a pattern seen across the globe over the last couple of days, the OEX might chop between resistance and support for a while until it sorts out direction. What will it take to remain in the directional mode and not settle into some sort of consolidation pattern? The alignment of its several strongest components in the same direction, I think. Look for an upside break through the RSI descending trendline and then a confirming break through the OEX's descending trendline as signs that the OEX will try to retest recent highs. Look for a rollover beneath the RSI trendline and a confirming OEX rollover beneath 559.50-561.50 resistance as a sign that the OEX might be headed lower. The OEX needs to make it above that 559.50 resistance soon, I think, or bears are going to gain courage and try to drive it down. That may be the chop part, however, as I'm not sure how far they could drive it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/5/2004,  8:15:49 AM
We await the 10AM release of ISM services, est. 61.5.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/5/2004,  7:07:59 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei gapped higher by more than 130 points and charged right up toward its 12,000 P&F price objective, with bonds plunging as equities soared. The Nikkei touched 10,997.91 before the end of the morning session, then moved above 12,000 briefly twice in the afternoon session, trading as high as 12,003.92. Retreating to touch and establish support near 11,950, the Nikkei then closed halfway between that newly established support and the 12,000 resistance, closing up by 142.37 points and 1.20%, at 11,958.32.

In addition to building on the optimism engendered by Friday's U.S. jobs number, Japanese investors found encouragement in the Economy and Financial Services Minister Takenaka's statement this weekend that Japan's economy probably grew more than expected in the fiscal year that has just ended, perhaps almost 3 percent. Friday's rotation back into tech and auto stocks continued, with Mitsubishi soaring even higher than its big gain on Friday. News that DaimlerChrysler's Renschler will move to Mitsubishi as CEO to revitalize the troubled company helped the stock add almost another 14% in Monday's trade. Information and telecom shares climbed. Although many equities performed well, however, the major banks were mostly lower.

Some Asian bourses were closed today, but most that were open moved higher. The Taiwan Weighted gained a solid 2.10%. South Korea's Kospi was closed today. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.52%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also closed today. China's Shanghai Composite was the only Asian bourse to lose ground, closing lower by 0.12%.

Amid news of a violent weekend in Iraq and after the release of purchasing managers index for the European services industry for March, European bourses turn in mixed performances this morning. European services industries dropped to 54.4, below the expected 56, with Spain being the most strongly affected. Numbers also dropped in Germany, France and Italy. New business and business expectations were the most strongly affected components of that number. The March purchasing managers index fell a greater-than-expected amount in Britain, too.

Chip stocks led European gainers in early trading. In stock-specific news, Aventis again appears in some news reports, with the French government continuing to prefer Sanofi Synthelabo's hostile bid to the Novartis bid that Aventis is courting.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades lower by 12.40 points or 0.28%, to 4453.20. The CAC 40 gained 24.75 points or 0.66%, to 3764.66. The DAX rose 6.58 points or 0.16%, to 4014.18.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/2/2004,  11:30:16 PM
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