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  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  7:12:09 PM
Taser (TASR) $92.25 +17.51% ... I took a bit of a flyer with some previous profits and accumulated 500 tasr 100 calls at an average of $ 1.17. i dont understand it (tasr) and have no idea what it will do next but it could keep running. any suggestions please

CNBC just reported that J-Lo's mom won a sizeable jackpot on a slot machine. She's going to put some of it away for her grandchildren's college education.

My thoughts? Community Collge (do nothing); Sell 1/2 for profit and get good start on a 4-year state college tuition (take initial capital off the table, maybe more, which was profit to begin with), Private College fully paid (do nothing).

My basic thought on TASR is very overvalued stock (valuation is all perception), SHORTS are getting crushed (that's why nobody understands its price rise as valuation doesn't make sense), and today's announcement by the company to split 2:1 smells like management sending a message to BEARS that they'd better be careful.

I don't know who it was that said, "I've never met a poor man that has taken a profit." But for some reason, I always remember this saying.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  6:34:16 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  5:51:03 PM
James Cramer talking about TASR shorts getting their heads handed to them right now. No stock to borrow, and when getting called in by a session's close, it is creating great pain, and losses for the bears.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  5:47:51 PM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $3.89 +3.73% ... active in after-hours at $4.08 on after-the-close news that it will fit 550,000 DaimlerChrysler (DCX) cars with its radios by June 30, 2006. DCX said it will subscribe to warrants to help beef up Sirius's financial position.

I've had a "fitted" retracement on SIRI from $1.53 (with 38.2% fit at 10/22/03 close of $2.62), which has the 80.9% retracement at $3.85, and 100% up at $4.39.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  5:00:39 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  4:11:17 PM
Alcoa (AA) $36.50 +1.69% ... hit lower at $34.80 in after-hours. Reports Q1 EPS of $0.41 (diluted), which was inline with consensus. EPS from continuing operations was $0.40 per share.

Revenue rose 11% year-over-year to $5.7 billion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  4:10:44 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  4:10:23 PM
Ruby Tuesday (RI) $32.90 -0.3% ... reports quarterly EPS of $0.48, which was a penny better than consensus. Revenues rose 16.4% year-over-year to $270.97 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  4:08:22 PM
Reader Question about TASR: Do you mean by the shorts capitulating that there is little left to fuel the stock higher?

Response: Yes, that's what I meant, but I also tried to clarify that I don't understand TASR's action, haven't for a while. I also tried to clarify that while the high volume at the top of a climb makes me wonder about shorts finally capitulating, that I was fearful that even wondering aloud about that possibility might contribute to more shorts being skewered on the horns of the TASR bulls (or would that be on the stun guns?). I have no other evidence that could be happening except the logic-defying way that TASR has climbed, the expectation that someday it will retreat, and the effect that today's split announcement had on price and volume. Please don't dig into short positions based on that observation, because lots of smarter people than me have been skewered trying to short this thing (which I haven't tried to do). Don't understand the thing and don't like it, either, although I bet I would have liked it a lot better if I'd bought it last March and held on, right?

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/6/2004,  4:08:02 PM
AA Earnings - 2 cents light at 40 cents

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/6/2004,  4:04:37 PM
STX - has been halted
Earnings warning - now expecting 6.8 cents. Prior estimates 21 cents.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  3:56:39 PM
Looks as if we'll have an inside day or harami on the OEX today. The TRAN broke above yesterday's inside-day candle this morning, building slightly on gains as it did so, but it was stopped squarely at the 2880-2885 resistance level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  3:53:17 PM
I guess I'm going to have to throw out that fitted retracement bracket that I was using for TASR. It was working for a while, and I note that even today, the stock opened just at the top of retracement bracket, making me wonder if it didn't have some validity after all. Today's trade has changed all that, and of course we don't have historical resistance levels to watch as a guide. Today's high volume and tall white candle make me wonder about the possibility of a shorts' capitulation fueling the strong drive higher, in which event . . . but, no, we don't want to talk about any possibility of a reversal in TASR. I would probably just be contributing to a few more shorts being gored if I did because this thing just defies logic.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  3:52:08 PM
TASER most active options ... incredible... APRIL $75 puts (QURPO) 4,845 (oi:3,802), APRIL $85 calls (QURDQ) 4,344 (oi:3,164), APRIL $80 puts (QURPP) 4,356 (oi:2,452).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  3:41:41 PM
As some of you know, I've been testing a Parabolic SAR exit used in conjunction with a Donchian channel breakout signal, comparing that type of exit to other types I've tested. Because I watch the Donchian channels on a 30-minute OEX chart, that's the time interval that I've been using in conjunction with the PSAR exits, too. I detailed how one such Donchian channel breakout would have played out using three different exit systems. On the particular trade I followed, initiated 3/25, all three exit types would have been profitable, with the PSAR exit having come out in the middle, slightly above the lowest-gaining exit, but still far below the +13 points that would have been gained from another.

What about pure PSAR trades with entries on a PSAR-based entry? Using the Simulated Trade table that Q-charts now helpfully provides for PSAR entries and exits, I note that the last six PSAR-generated entries and exits have resulted in trades with profit/loss of 6.77, -0.2, +0.83, -0.2 , +.25 , and -0.2, going from a trade entered 3/25 at 10:00 to a trade exited 4/02 at 10:00. That excludes the current long PSAR simulated trade, entered on 4/02 at 10:00. That's not a spectacular result, considering that the position would have suffered 1 or 2 gains to four or five probable losses (since the spread on the OEX options would mean that a 0.25-OEX movement in the direction of the trade actually resulted in a small loss on the position). In this example, at least, the losses were kept small. Let's check into this every now and then and see how it goes. Jim has warned that PSAR isn't always helpful on this longer 30-minute interval.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  3:38:11 PM
BIIIIIG Volume of 1.48 million shares that last 5-minute bar on TASR from $95.45-$89.91, which puts in an intra-day high of $95.45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  3:12:09 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  3:08:33 PM
IPO AINV still hasn't triggered a trade today according to Jeff's 5MRT system, either bullish or bearish, staying with the first five-minute's range all day. Yesterday's IPO MEMY still has not quite met the upside target predicted by this morning's bullish breakout above $9.33, having come within nine cents of the $10.68 upside target. It hasn't triggered the stop, either, with the stop (in this paper trade) at $9.59.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  3:04:57 PM
To me, this is still choppy action today, with excruciatingly slow movements punctuated by five-minute candles that zoom some direction or another.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  3:01:37 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $86.63 +10.5% ... back at prior highs of $87.54.

You almost feel like company announced the 2:1 split to "get eaven" with the sell side for recent negative news items.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:58:39 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) still $3.52 x $3.53.

Just didn't like the look of $HUI.X back at session low. U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.73 -0.54% steady and off its morning low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:56:09 PM
Cancel day trade long order alert .... for Intel (INTC) $28.27 -0.98% (order was for bullish entry at $28.10)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:53:50 PM
Day trade close out alert .... Bema Gold (BGO) $3.52 +0.57% ... here or limit $3.51.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  2:53:28 PM
The current five-minute pattern on the OEX may be a "p" accumulation pattern, but that needs to be proven by a break above the 541.40-541.60 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:47:04 PM
Intel (INTC) $28.23 -1.12% ... back tick at lower price of $28.08, so no bullish fill at $28.08 for me at this point.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/6/2004,  2:46:46 PM
TASR - correct about the cause of death. It is my understanding that they have never been the cause of death. Most of the people they are used on are highly drugged and that is why they use the guns in the first place. The cause of death is normally from overdose. I have read several articles on this in the past and I think this is rumor is unfounded.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:43:42 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR $85.21 +8.36% ... announces 2:1 split (I saw this headline but thought it was an old one. Sure enough, time stamped just as that volume and price spike took place.)

Also got an e-mail that company official may have said something about no evidence that stun guns were cause of death.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  2:41:59 PM
Once again, the OEX climbs from the bottom support of the ascending regression channel I showed in my 13:22 post. The OEX is approaching mid-level resistance on that channel, at about 561.60 at the current time, with the upper resistance at about 564.30 currently and still climbing. Once again, the OEX also found support at the mid-channel Keltner support, but first it traded either side of that support for about an hour in the late morning. Upper Keltner channel resistance is at 562 currently, far below the upper edge of that ascending regression channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:37:57 PM
Day trade long alert .... Intel (INTC) $28.17 -1.29% for a pullback entry to $28.10, stop $27.99, target $28.35 before the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:28:52 PM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $83.20 +5.92% ... some upside action in last 10-minutes from $80.50. 1.6 million shares in last 10-minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:27:05 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.39 +1.20% .... nothing....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:16:58 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.70 +0.03% ... getting green.

EK $25.56 +1.42%, AA $36.24 +0.97% and IP $42.77 +0.87%

Considering today's trade, this is kind of "exciting." If not for Nokia (NOK), today's Passover has been passed over by most traders it would seem.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  2:16:16 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  2:15:19 PM
The OEX is above the 560.37 level, but I don't know that I'd consider it safely above that level. It may be coming back to retest that level now.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  1:56:30 PM
Sector Update...

Winners:
XAL airlines index: +1.81%
XAU gold & silver: +1.02%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +1.00%
TRAN Dow transports: +0.69%

(Biggest) Losers:
SOX semiconductors: -2.72%
GHA hardware index: -1.43%
DDX disk drives: -1.34%
INX Internet index: -1.40%
BTK Biotech index: -1.62%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  1:54:45 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.53 x $3.54 .... get that piker in Chicago off the offer!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  1:50:33 PM
The OEX continues to have difficulty with that 560.36-560.37 zone, having blipped above it late yesterday and promptly fallen below it again as soon as the markets opened this morning. It's challenging that level again as I type, and needs to get safely back above it if bullish hopes are going to be fulfilled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  1:50:12 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.42 +1.27% ... gets above that intra-day congestion of $45.40, but still off session high of $45.54. Now above all intra-day SMA's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  1:47:26 PM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 60.21 +1.91% ... technical ... breaking above its 200-day SMA (59.82) here and adding on some weight. Downward trend ahead at 65.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  1:45:57 PM
Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) 600.82 -0.91% .... slips back under the 603 level today. Not all that concerning to small cap bulls, but after a nice run from the bottom, didn't get much price action above 603, where overhead supply should be very limited.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  1:36:34 PM
Moving the opposite direction (of CVX) is oil services stock Schlumberger (SLB). The stock broke down below its 50-dma three days ago and is approaching support at the $60.00 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  1:34:16 PM
CNBC talking about TASR now.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  1:30:17 PM
The bounce continues in shares of ChevronTexaco (CVX). Its MACD has reversed up into a new buy signal and the stock is approaching resistance in the $90 region. Actually, CVX has long-term resistance in the 91-92 range dating back to 2001 and 2002.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  1:22:16 PM
So far, the OEX has been adhering to this ascending regression channel: Link A break below the channel would be a significant change from the pattern established since the 30th.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  1:14:44 PM
I know we have a lot of folks following TASR. A reader just asked if we have any ideas for the sudden drop in price from $81 to $79.35 in the last hour on rising volume?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  1:02:35 PM
No QQQ intra-day charts today for me. All day I've only been getting the last 4 bars of a 5-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  12:54:28 PM
The OEX five-minute chart shows the Keltner channels settling into an equilibrium position, a goal after a big breakout such as yesterday's. It's hard for that equilibrium position to be maintained beyond a few hours, however, so it's usually a prediction of a breakout to come. While I've seen that equilibrium position maintained beyond a few hours, that's rarer than a breakout that comes either immediately or within one or two hours.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  12:50:17 PM
Yesterday's IPO, MEMY, never gave a buy or sell signal based on Jeff's 5MRT system, but it did so today, giving a buy signal on a push above $9.33 this morning and then setting an upside target of $10.69. So far, it's reached a high of $10.59, coming just short of that upside target. The stop would currently be at $9.59, so above breakeven. The stock is at $10.28 as I type. I've been watching these IPO's on their first day of trade, following them according to Jeff's 5MRT system to collect anecdotal evidence as to whether this system gives day traders a good way of following these IPO's. Perhaps I should follow them beyond the first day? Since we don't have historical markers or enough data for accurate oscillator evidence with an IPO, I thought Jeff's method might be the best to test, as it doesn't rely on any of those measures, but relies strictly on easily managed Fib levels.

Today's IPO is AINV, Apollo Investment Corp. It's a closed-end management firm. If you've seen Jeff's 12:23 post, you'll know that this hasn't been a particularly good day to introduce this IPO. AINV opened at $15.41, climbed to $15.44, and then dropped to $15.00, closing that first five-minute period at $15.03. It remains within the neutral zone defined by Jeff's 5MRT system, not yet triggering a trade one direction or another. As I've warned other times, we don't yet have enough evidence to know whether this system works as well with IPO's as it might with other stocks, so I'm not suggesting that day traders bet the farm on these trades, but rather that they paper trade them or follow along with my comments, deciding how they feel about this tool after they've gathered some evidence.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:45:29 PM
Program Trading .... HL Camp & Company have their computers set for program buying at $-0.24 and set for program selling at $-2.43.

Other than the sell program adjustments made at the open to account for cash/futures, there would have been zero sell or buy program premium al_rts today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:40:30 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) ... intra-day bar chart just captured, with BGO thoughts (what to look for, or BGO bulls wants/needs to happen). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:35:17 PM
BGO bulls.... are you looking at NEM $45.37 +1.15% and saying... "C'mon you bugger, catch a bid!"

NEM had a decent volume spike from 10:30-10:35 of 295,000 shares from $45.26-$45.40 and a little upward move. Needs a bull to come back for seconds right in here and get a move above today's high of $45.40 going.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:27:34 PM
Brightpoint (CELL) $15.30 -6.53% .... trading pretty good within a 5-MRT. Nice BIG 5-minute bar at the open. Just off RED #3 of $15.19, where session low was $15.20. Short-term trader might look for a pop back to RED #1 $15.66 as a day trade short.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:23:13 PM
Seeing quite a few global closed-end income fund, closed-end realty investment funds/trusts for the NYSE percentage loser column today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  12:22:40 PM
Depending on one's bias, it would be possible to make either a bullish or bearish case for the OEX's action today. The bearish case first: The 120-minute OEX chart shows a clear evening-star reversal signal being given with the completion of today's first two hours of trade. The OEX is slipping beneath the 559.50 historical support and the mid-channel Keltner support after having been turned back below 563-564 resistance. It's been slipping a little lower all day. It's been overbought a long time on a Keltner chart basis and is due to pull back to the lower-channel support. The bullish case: Despite descending 30-minute oscillators and tentative bearish crosses on the 60- and 120-minute charts, the OEX holds above next historical support at 558.80. Its violation of the 30-minute 21-pma and mid-channel Keltner support have been minimal, with the Keltner support trying to snake back beneath the OEX again. There just hasn't been a lot of downward traction during the 30-minute downphase. It's also possible to begin to draw a descending wedge on that five-minute chart, with such a formation typically being a bullish one.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  12:19:31 PM
Skechers USA Inc (SKX) is up another 3.92% to $14.31 putting its three-week gain at 24%. The shoemaker raised its Q1 forecasts this morning saying only that it expects to exceed its previous forecasts for 5 to 10 cents a share. Consensus analyst estimates are at 11 cents. SKX is expected to report on or near April 22nd.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  12:12:47 PM
99c Only Stores (NDN) is down 3.46% to $23.93 after pre-announcing lower earnings. NDN lowered its forecast from 20-21 cents to 18-19 cents a share. Same-store sales for the quarter were only up 0.2%, which was below estimates for growth of 1-2%. NDN's P&F chart is bearish and points to a $13 price target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  12:09:04 PM
Reader Question: Hypothetical question. If you had been holding RHAT for some time, and it is close to its PnF target of 25, what would you do at this time? Put on a snug stop? Sell a covered call? Sell the stock?

Response: I thought this might be a great question to address in the MM format because we all hope to be in the situation in which we've held a stock as it approached and then achieved its P&F target. What next? That answer depends so much on a person's investment goals that it's impossible to give any one answer. Is the goal long-term ownership? Was this intended as a position play to be held a few months? Obviously, the answer to that question would greatly impact the decision made. Let's assume first that this was intended as a position play, but not as a long-term stock holding and take a look at the bar chart: Link

That bar chart also shows some risk building as RHAT approaches that historical resistance and its P&F upside target, with volume dropping as it's been climbing into April. That's not a bullish sign, but neither is it a good market-timing sign. RHAT could continue to climb on low volume. Since RHAT's earnings were announced late in March, at least there's not an earnings surprise due any moment to swamp the play, but still some decisions need to be made. In this case, when the goal was not stock ownership, either snugging up a stop or beginning to leg out of partial positions, or a combination of the two, might be a good tactic to use. With RSI showing a possibility of turning down, I'd certainly be considering one of those tactics.

What if the goal was long-term ownership, however? RHAT still might be vulnerable to a pullback as it rounds up into yet-another bowl-like formation on the monthly chart, into that historical resistance. Some protective measures might be needed. Note how strongly RHAT trades in accordance with its 72-ema, the green average on that chart? Currently that average lies at $18.82, so even if RHAT is going to continue trading strongly, it might be time for it to pull back to that support level and re-establish it as support. A long-term stock owner still has risk down to that level before one would know if RHAT's recent bullish behavior were going to continue and it was going to bounce yet again. Selling a covered call against the stock would reduce risk, but doesn't give a lot of downside protection. Buying an OTM put might be a possible consideration, too. Establishing a low-cost collar might be another. For example, as I typed, a May 30 call showed a bid/ask of .35 x .40 while a May 22.50 put showed a bid/ask of 1.10 x 1.20 and a May 20 put showed a bid/ask of 0.40 x .50. Therefore, it would be possible to sell a May 30 call against the position, with that 30 strike above the $26.80 historical resistance, for $0.35 and buy the May 20 put for $0.50, for a total debit of $0.15, giving the long-term stock owner protection below $20.00 until May. A 30c/22.50p collar would cost the long-term owner a debit of a maximum $0.85 and offer protection below $22.50. Since this is a hypothetical case, let's assume a purchase of the stock at $20.00, as the stock passed above that round number. That May 30c/22.50p collar would add $0.85 (plus commissions to put on the position) to the basis, making the basis $20.85, but giving protection below $22.50. The owner risks assignment if RHAT should drive above $30 before May expiration, but, hey, that wouldn't be a bad decision to make, as to whether to allow a stock to be assigned for that hefty gain, would it?

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  12:08:29 PM
First Virtual Communications, Inc. (FVCX) is up 103% to $4.74 today after announcing a deal with the U.S. Airforce. Last week the stock closed at $1.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  12:07:08 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  12:02:48 PM
Crude oil is currently trading just under $34 a barrel and about 8% off its highs last month near $37. The commodity appears to be holding support at its simple 50-dma just as it did back in November 2003 and February 2004. According to a statement from CIBC this morning they're still expecting oil to hit $40 a barrel.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  11:59:08 AM
The XAL airline index is valiantly trying to breakout over resistance at 60 and its simple 200-dma. The short-term trend looks strong but the sector is overbought with a 20% gain from last month's lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:58:04 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.00 -0.24% .... while 30-minute delayed quote, will note that the post-09:05 AM EST high has been 89.09, which is right at DAILY S1 (89.06).

Day trader's in some gold stocks would most likely want to see dollar fall from here. 08:40 AM EST low was 88.61

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  11:56:40 AM
O'Charley's Inc (CHUX), known for its various restaurant chains, is up 7.07% to $20.13 after Raymond James upgraded the stock from "out perform" to a "strong buy" and upped its price target to $25. Today's volume is already at 810K or 4x the norm.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:53:55 AM
Newmont (NEM) $45.45 +1.33% .... slight outperformance to the upside in percentage terms.

BGO bulls might note NEM trades its 200-pd SMA (5-minute intervals) right here. BGO's 200-pd SMA on 5-minute is up at $3.56. BGO bull would like to see NEM lead higher, then have thought BGO pulled up.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  11:53:01 AM
UPS issued a press release this morning stating that their acquisition and rebranding of the 3,000 Mail Boxes Etc has been a big success. The network of stores has "generated triple-digit growth in UPS shipping volume". The company plans to open another 1700 stores by 2007.

UPS is currently trading at $70.45 after its recent breakout over resistance at $70.00 and its simple 50-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:49:58 AM
BGO and $HUI.X look pretty similar on a 5-minute bar chart don't they? (5-minute intervals with 21, 50 and 200-pd SMA's)?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:46:37 AM
Crumb! ... MU $17.39 -3.17% now lower. Just seemed like a pretty good buyer from $17.50-$17.65 earlier this morning, with some size.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  11:43:03 AM
Ouch! Rouse Co (RSE) is a commercial real estate developer and with investors selling interest-rate sensitive stocks this one is getting hammered. For months RSE has been a pinnacle of slow and steady strength but in the last two days it has dropped from $54 to $48.50 breaking support at its 40 & 50-dma's, breaking support at the $50.00 mark and currently dropping (fast) toward its 100-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/6/2004,  11:39:11 AM
Sector Update...

Winners:
DJUSHB homebuilders: +1.43%
XAL airlines index: +1.20%
XAU gold & silver: +1.06%
TRAN Dow Transports: +0.62%

(Biggest) Losers:
SOX semiconductors: -2.65%
GHA hardware index: -1.40%
DDX disk drives: -1.27%
INX Internet index: -1.20%

BTK Biotech index: -1.69%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:33:27 AM
Day trade long alert .... Bema Gold (BGO) $3.51 here, stop $3.48, target $3.64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  11:15:42 AM
The OEX pauses at mid-channel Keltner support, also known historical support, near 559.50. The OEX found this level more difficult on the way up to this year's high than it did the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  11:13:22 AM
The OEX 120-minute chart is showing a clear reversal signal, although that could change in the next twenty minutes. The current 120-minute candle has not yet completed, but that's a fair representation of an evening-star formation so far, with some leeway given for the way an index would look versus a stock. Link On a stock, the middle small-bodied candle or doji should gap above the surrounding two candles, but Nison doesn't insist on the same requirement for indices, since they don't tend to gap as easily.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  11:06:10 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:58:18 AM
No lower low yet on the OEX. MACD has already made a slightly lower low on the five-minute chart, so unless the OEX does fall below the 9:35 candle's 559.62 low, there will have been price/MACD bullish divergence.

This is dialing down to study every micro-movement, though, and the truth is that the OEX is kind of waffling around, as are other markets, trying to sort out direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:55:07 AM
Today's SOX retreat has taken the index all the way down to retest the broken trendline off its January high: Link Tech bulls want to see this important indicator index find support here and bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:51:17 AM
Cephalon (CEPH) $59.77 +0.67% .... session highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:48:12 AM
It looks now as if that OEX rise was a bear-flag rise, as I suggested it might be, with that flag now broken to the downside. However, there's still mid-channel Keltner support just below, currently at 559.34, and lower-channel support, now at 556.79 and still rising. The OEX was so overbought for so long, this might be a time for a retreat to that lower-channel support, but we have to see how it acts near the mid-channel support first. Bears want to see a new low of the day to confirm this breakdown out of the bear-flag formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:48:02 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 56.61 -2.33% ... new session low. TXN $29.05 -6.10%, STM $23.52 -4.96%, NSM $45.76 -3.63%, MXIM $48.60 -2.4% are sector losers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:40:23 AM
Did everyone read Mark Phillips' article from last week when he discussed using Fibonacci numbers for chart intervals or moving averages? Here's the article: Link Mark pointed out that the Fib numbers come from nature and that they're a sequence of numbers obtained by starting with zero and then adding one to begin the series, then continuing by adding the sum of the previous two numbers to obtain the next one.

So, if these are whole numbers, where do we get the Fib numbers used on our Fib retracement brackets, such as a 61.8% retracement? It turns out that after the series gets going and you've moved past the 8th calculation, you can divide one number by the next in the series and always obtain a ratio of .618, so that one number is 61.8% of the number that follows it.

Although I believe Mark was using the Fib numbers themselves on the charts he presented and not numbers based on the ratios between the Fib numbers, it was those ratios that interested me. Here are two charts. One's time interval and moving average are based on those Fib ratios rather than the whole Fib series numbers. The other uses the typical 21-pma (exponential) on a 38-minute chart. Compare and see whether you think the Fib chart or the standard one fits better: Link (Note: Because the charting service doesn't allow me to use a 19.1-pma or a 38.2 time interval, I've rounded those numbers to the nearest whole number.) The differences are subtle, but I think the Fib chart works a little better. Maybe not enough better for us to switch, but it's an interesting concept.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:35:03 AM
Sector strength now has Airlines (XAL.X) 59.68 +1% and Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 638.84 +1.01% only sectors up 1% or more.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:33:38 AM
Biotechnology iShares (IBB) $80.65 -0.64% .... Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) $147.00 -0.81%... Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 549.86 -0.99% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:28:23 AM
Day trade close out alert .... let's close out the Micron Tech (MU) short here at $17.66. (scalp 1% gain).

SOX.X 509.60 -1.73% ... may not budge much more.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:26:07 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 344.32 -0.07% ... very tight morning range of 343.71-344.41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/6/2004,  10:21:04 AM
TOKYO — Tokyo prosecutors arrested four people on Tuesday on suspicion of smuggling 500 kilograms of gold bullion from Hong Kong and evading 35 million yen in consumption tax.

The ring, led by precious metal dealer Hiroyuki Yabuzaki, 46, in Abiko, Chiba Prefecture, is suspected of having smuggled a total of about 1 ton of gold bullion for sale in Japan, investigative sources said. (Kyodo News)

500 kilos! Imagine the yellow glow... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:19:57 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:11:27 AM
The OEX's five-minute pattern could still be a bear flag rising into resistance. Those in bullish positions want the OEX to get safely above that 560.37 breakout level from yesterday while bears want the opposite, but according to classical TA, this won't look bullish until the OEX has retraced half the steep descent from yesterday's close, so is above about 561.15 or so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  10:08:04 AM
The TRAN has broken above yesterday's high and also above Friday's high. It's retreated a bit off that high-of-the-day, however, but not far, so far. As I mentioned earlier, I don't trust inside-day breakouts because I've seen too many that break out one direction and then turn around and go the other way. It just doesn't seem as reliable a tool as I'd like. Yet, if this breakout can hold, the possibility now exists that the TRAN will follow the pattern of the other indices, and break upward strongly without ever retreating to form a right shoulder on its potential inverse H&S. That will be good for the Dow, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:06:53 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 508.68 -1.93% .... sitting here just off morning low of 508.21, where DAILY S2 is 507.75.

Need more sector weakness for day trade bear in MU $17.74 -1.22%, which traded a post-trade low of $17.51.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  10:01:03 AM
Identix Inc. (IDNX) $7.41 +15.06% .... big 5-mrt.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/6/2004,  10:00:46 AM
Challenger Layoff Report = -12% at 68,034, (last 77,250)
Lowest level of layoffs in nine months

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:59:36 AM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.26 +0.91% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/6/2004,  9:57:06 AM
A 6B overnight repo replaces 6.25B expiring for a net 250M drain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:56:24 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $48.92 -2.14% Link ... downgraded to "neutral" from "outperform" at Schwab SoundView. (valuation)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  9:54:58 AM
This current rise on the OEX five-minute chart looks suspiciously like a bear-flag formation. I wouldn't trust it completely if I was thinking bullishly about the OEX's stop short of mid-channel Keltner support and historical support near 559.50. Let's see what happens.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  9:51:54 AM
Yesterday, the TRAN printed an inside day, with yesterday's range entirely within the previous day's range. For candlestick enthusiasts, it wasn't quite a classic harami, since yesterday's upper shadow extended a little above the body of the previous day's candle. I watch the TRAN because it's the sister index to the Dow, and because it's one of the few indices that has not yet undone the possibility of an inverse H&S on its daily chart.

According to inside-day theory, a break over yesterday's high should be a bullish signal and a break below yesterday's low should now be a bearish signal. Watching for a breakout or breakdown out of yesterday's range might give us clues about the TRAN with relationship to that inverse H&S. It looks to me as if a break over Friday's high would be a break through the neckline before the right-shoulder has formed, a pattern we've seen across many indices over the last week. I'll look for a break above yesterday's high (which might be imminent) as a first sign that the TRAN might be about to head higher, perhaps above Friday's high, and follow the pattern of the other indices, breaking higher without ever forming a right shoulder. I'll look for a break below yesterday's low as a sign that the TRAN might be one of the few indices that will actually pull back and form a right shoulder. I want to add that I'm not a particularly strong fan of the inside-day theory, as I've seen far too many instances when there's a false break one direction or the other before the index or stock in question turns and runs the other direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:47:01 AM
Sector action broadly lower early with SOX.X -2.02%, Internet (INX.X) 193.03 -1.34%, Comb. Telecom (IXTCX) 190.71 -1.22% early weakness.

Strength limited with Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) +1%, Home Builders ($DJUSHB) +0.75%, Oil (OIX.X) +0.71% and Oil Service (OSX.X) +0.67%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  9:43:32 AM
Although the OEX overshot the first Keltner support, and particularly the support near yesterday's breakout level at 560.37, it did stop its descent ahead of 559.50 historical support and mid-channel support on the five-minute nested Keltner channels that I watch. So far. Five-minute oscillators still cycle down while the OEX tries to steady ahead of those levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:39:08 AM
Day trade short alert ... Micron Tech (MU) $17.86 here, stop $18.10, target $17.32.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  9:36:40 AM
I had cautioned in my first OEX-related post that we needed to see if first Keltner support held, listing those possible support levels. First Keltner support obviously did not hold on the OEX, and it's begun a full-fledged retreat to mid-channel support. During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX traded in a range from 562.17 to 559.97, with that mid-channel support at 559.08 as I type. Bottom-channel support lies at 556.46.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:31:47 AM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) $6.90 +22.19% .... any day traders from yesterday that held overnight might look to place a stop at $6.56, or just under opening-tick low of $6.81.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/6/2004,  9:25:47 AM
BEBE announced a 3:2 stock split

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/6/2004,  9:19:50 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  9:08:07 AM
Yesterday afternoon, the OEX ended the day in breakout mode on the Keltner channels with five-minute oscillators not showing the least inclination to turn down yet, as if the buying were stopped only by the close, but with the OEX jammed underneath next resistance. Deciding whether to stay in a long play overnight was a tough decision for bullish players, one complicated by the escalating violence in Iraq and the knowledge that overnight developments could weigh against sentiment this morning. That decision was also made more difficult by the opening of the earnings season this morning, with the ever-present danger of a missed estimate or other false step impacting sentiment, too. Nokia's warning this morning is just one example.

Yesterday morning, I thought the OEX might be in for a choppy trading day and that's what we got until mid-afternoon. As the day progressed, I began mentioning that the OEX looked as if it were forming a bullish right triangle with a flat top at 560.36-560.37, and that the Keltner channels were positioning themselves for either a breakout or a breakdown below the rising channel support. The resultant breakout on that bullish right triangle set up an upside target of 568-569, although it was also possible to describe that consolidation pattern differently, with a somewhat lower upside target near 565.60. Whatever the interpretation of the previous formation, the breakout was accompanied by Donchian channel and Keltner channel breakouts. As far as I've been able to determine through my research, neither Donchian channel nor Keltner channel breakouts give an upside target, but the upside target predicted by the bullish right triangle would bring the OEX up to test at least one version of the descending trendline off the January high. (It's possible to draw at least a couple of versions, depending on how many shadows are included.) Daily RSI had already broken above a descending trendline formed off its series of lower highs.

However, as Jim said last night in his Futures Wrap, the easiest gains may be behind the indices, and the overnight futures activity shows the risks. I mentioned late yesterday that a day with big gains is sometimes followed by a consolidation day, complicating the hold-overnight-or-not decision even more. On the daily chart, the OEX is once again above most important and closely watched moving averages, with the expectation that those averages might provide support on a pullback. However, the OEX has trendlines and historical S/R levels ahead that might snag the OEX, too. Closest resistance lies at the bottom of a former consolidation band, at about 563-564. Once past 564, the OEX is back within the range of that consolidation band. Above that lies the various versions of the descending trendline off the January high, and then the resistance implied at each of this year's price peaks.

As the OEX approaches the 563-564 range that is next strong resistance, the five-minute Keltner channels show the OEX to be extremely overbought on a short-term basis, with a possibility that the OEX could retreat to mid-channel or even lower-channel support. This urges that those in bullish plays should continue to raise their stops as the OEX moves higher, if it should do so today. Although the OEX showed no propensity to retreat as the trading day ended yesterday, the Keltner channels show that even if the OEX is going to continue in breakout mode on a Keltner channel basis, it probably needs to retreat at least to 561.40 or maybe to 560.44 to establish support before climbing again. The action of the ES futures after the close hinted that although the markets closed without showing a propensity to retreat and reestablish support, they actually needed to do just that, and that might be the first task ahead of the OEX this morning. A retreat only to next strong Keltner support won't undo the bullishness, however, but it will be important to see if that first support holds.

Keltner channel breakouts don't necessarily argue that the position should be closed or a bearish position entered, but they do signal increasing vulnerability to a pullback to either that mid-channel or lower-channel support, and we have to see whether first strong Keltner support holds this morning before we decide whether that pullback has begun. Even that depth of pullback won't necessarily be bearish. Both those support levels are rising so rapidly that soon the OEX won't have to drift far below current levels to retest that support. Mid-channel support is now at 559.03 and rising rapidly, and lower channel support is now at 556.68 and rising rapidly. Let's see what happens as markets open, but as they ended yesterday, they predicted a small pullback, and then a-perhaps-choppy-or-hesitant rise into next resistance, without many other predictions possible. Let's see if Nokia's warning or overnight developments in Iraq rewrite that prediction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/6/2004,  8:57:05 AM
We await the Challenger & Gray jobs report at 10AM.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/6/2004,  8:33:31 AM
Thanks to Martin for reeling in the cause of the 8:10AM dip:

HELSINKI, April 6 (Reuters) - The world's largest mobile phone maker Nokia said on Tuesday first-quarter earnings would be at the low end of expectations while sales would decline by two percent year-on-year due to sales of cheaper handsets. Nokia (NOK1V.HE) said in a statement it now expects January-March earnings per share of 0.17 euros, versus previous guidance of 0.17-0.19 euros from January. Group sales are seen falling two percent 6.6 billion euros ($8.13 billion) versus a previous forecast of three to seven percent growth.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/6/2004,  8:02:53 AM
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/6/2004,  7:10:02 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei managed a close well above its 12,000 P&F upside target last night. The Nikkei gapped open again Tuesday, but then it erased more than 100 points off its gains to close the morning session near the flat-line level. After a first aborted attempt to climb early in the afternoon session, the Nikkei climbed almost 160 points the rest of the afternoon, closing up 121.38 points or 1.02%, at 12,079.70. A study of historical prices and a daily chart appears to verify one article's assertion that last night's close was the highest since August, 2001.

A weakening yen against the dollar appeared to help the export-heavy Japanese bourses. Techs, especially chip stocks, and exporters gained early in Tuesday's trade, as did most automakers and banks. By the end of the day, those sectors also showed gains, with all four major banks gaining. Matsushita Electric, manufacturer of Panasonic products, revealed Monday that during the next three years, the company would spend more than a billion dollars on information technology, and the company ended the day as one of the stocks that eased rather than gained. In other stock-specific news, Toshiba announced the development of the first 4-gagabit NAND flash memory, with mass production to begin late this year. Toshiba rose, but only by a modest 0.2%.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.71%, but South Korea's Kospi soared 2.55%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.45%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.22%. China's Shanghai Composite also gained, by 0.62%.

European bourses also show a mixed performance this morning, with the three we most commonly watch all in the red as I type. Germany, in particular, might be impacted by the release of March's employment figures, with those showing the jobless number rising to 44,000 and the jobless rate rising to 10.4% from the previous 10.3%. Headlines announce that oil and gas producers gain, with BP, Total, and Bayer being specific stocks seeing gains. Stocks in the news today included Bayer, higher in early trading after yesterday's after-the-close announcement that the U.S. FDA had given its kidney cancer drug fast-track status. Another gainer in early trading was Philips Electronics, gaining after a newspaper published an interview with the CEO, with that CEO saying that it would trim its R&D budget and that the company was seeing strong 2004 sales growth in its semiconductor and medical systems units. One stock not participating in the gains was bank BNP Paribas, with the company confirming that its New York unit's asset workout business, not a significant part of the business according to the company, is under investigation. Other stocks showing early losses were Dutch telecom KPN, with the company announcing the replacement for its resigning CEO; and Volkswagen, dropping after Goldman Sachs lowered its 2004 earnings estimates for the company.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down only 1.10 points or 0.02%, to 4479.60. The CAC 40 traded lower by 14.16 points or 0.37%, at 3767.04. The DAX had dropped 9.09 points or 0.22%, to 4039.51.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/5/2004,  8:03:41 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/5/2004,  8:03:31 PM
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