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  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  5:55:53 PM
Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

Note today's DIA and SPY High/Low was High/Low for this week, which is used for calculating next week's WEEKLY Pivot levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  4:34:15 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  4:24:39 PM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.40 +2.73% ... close right on the $9.40 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  4:14:53 PM
SPY $114.40 -0.20% ... afternoon highs and bulls looked determined to get a positive close.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/8/2004,  4:14:35 PM
FR Board: Speech by Vice Chairman Ferguson
Macroeconomic Outlook and Uncertainties: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/8/2004,  3:59:25 PM
I have heard this mentioned several times as a cause for worry. 9/11 in NY, 3/11 in Madrid, 4/11 is Easter. I think they are giving the terrorists too much credit but we will see.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  3:56:32 PM
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) is starting to look like a stale doughnut with the breakdown under $34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:54:41 PM
QQQ $36.95 +0.02% ... this session won't end soon enough!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:51:28 PM
CBOE Internet (INX.X) 201.35 +4% ... internet's held bulk of their gains today. Traded tough relative to most everything else.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:50:34 PM
Careful, bearish OEX players. There's the potential for an inverse H&S on the OEX five-minute chart, although I'm not sure it would have time to finish forming before the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:46:23 PM
Thanks for the memories .... Let's all give a big thanks and say goodbye to AT&T (NYSE:T) $19.13 -1.99%, Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK) $25.43 -0.23% and Intl. Paper (NYSE:IP) $41.88 -1.25% as Dow components. Thank you for your representation over the years.

Sorry Taser Intl. (TASR) $99.01 +0.98%. Maybe a couple more years of 1000% gains an TASR will qualify. (grin)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:42:42 PM
When I mentioned the breakout signal on the Donchian channel, I forgot to mention that there's been one on the Keltner channels, too. Time to start following the OEX lower with your stops if you're in a bearish position. It's also time to consider whether you want to hold over the long weekend, especially with next week being opex.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:39:49 PM
Hmmmm..Jim... I was thinking continue lower on Monday, early Tuesday, get the QQQ to fill that gap and trade WEEKLY S2, then take it back higher.

But that's what makes a market. Always somebody agreeing to disagree.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:35:25 PM
QQQ WEEKLY Pivot estimates ... S2 $36.18, S1 = $36.54, P = $37.02, R1 =$37.38, R2 = $37.86.

SPX WEEKLY Pivot estimates 1,124, 1,129.49, 1,140.03, 1,145.54, 1,156.08.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:34:36 PM
What happens when a volatile stock settles near a certain price for a few days? Ask holders of TASR calls. As volatility leaks out of those options, so does the price, especially as time decay is working against price, too. That effect will only get worse over the long holiday, as 3/7 of that portion of the options price will leak away before Monday's open. Make sound decisions about holding over/not holding over, if such are possible with TASR.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:30:07 PM
We never got the bump up to retest the broken H&S neckline. That's a bearish development in itself, especially since the OEX then fell beneath the 30-minute 100/130-pma's. Now the OEX comes up to retest those averages. We've had a Donchian channel breakout to the downside on the close of the 2:00 thirty-minute candle. I wouldn't trust that Donchian channel breakout alone, but it helps confirm what we're seeing from other sources.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:15:19 PM
Reader S.O. nailed this close today, writing me earlier today mentioning that she expected to see a sell-off into the close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  3:13:44 PM
The OEX continues to test the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, currently at 555.76 and 554.77, with the OEX between the two. It has once lightly pierced the 130-pma, but then bounced back up. A move back over the 100-pma would be deemed a buy signal, but with a H&S formation that has been confirmed, I'm not sure that it's a signal I'd take, especially today. I know it's not a signal I'd take this late on the last day before a holiday. As I type, the OEX is coming down to retest that 130-pma, so we might not have to worry about that buy signal, but rather about a sell one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  3:10:18 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  3:00:19 PM
SEVERAL PARIS STATIONS EVACUATED ON BOMB ALERT - AP

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:58:15 PM
Swing trade covered call alert .... Selling the covered call in Newmont Mining (NEM) April $45 calls (NEMDI) $0.70 for my MM trades.

Those not selling the covered calls, STOP on stock remains $44.

Those that DO SELL the covered calls, will lower stop to $43.30 between now and April expiration (next Friday).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:54:24 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.14 -0.48% ... doing nothing and begins to look "pegged" at $45 into expiration. A swing trade bull that still wants to hold on from $46.39 entry, might think about selling the April $45 calls (NEMDI) $0.70 x $0.75 for some premium deterioration, and may well expire worthless based on gold stock's trade of late.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:48:09 PM
TASR April $115 Calls (QURDC) $1.15 .... Buyers of these calls now faced with premium risk over 3-day weekend.

I'm going to bail out of the 4 that I profiled yesterday at $1.60 and take the hit. If volume had been heavier earlier in the session, I'd hang on to the close, but just doesn't feel like the "tension" between bulls and bears is here today, to risk the 3-day deterioration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:43:45 PM
That bounce came from about a point above the 120-minute 130-pma, but a study of the 30-minute chart shows it coming as the OEX fell through the 30-minute 100-pma and almost touched the 130-pma. I may have to turn back to the 30-minute chart now that the OEX has begun moving around a bit more. When it consolidates for a period, I find that lengthening the interval on which I'm watching the activity gives more relevance to the various averages. It might be time to tighten that interval again.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  2:42:46 PM
Power Integrations Inc (POWI) is up 8.88% and breaking out over its 200-dma after some positive broker comments.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:39:49 PM
Sears (S) $42.17 -3.52% Link ... shoot!... Looked at this one last night as a potential short candidate on any negative reaction to retail sales numbers. Too many things going on and slipped my mind.

Swing trade bears sat in this one several weeks ago and it did nothing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:39:46 PM
Yes, Jeff (see Jeff's 15:34 post), I sheepishly wish that the namer of those candlestick patterns had been an engineer or mathematician, naming them somewhat less poetically. When I'm writing my novels, I try to avoid florid language, but here I am forced to employ it when mentioning those patterns.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/8/2004,  2:38:16 PM
TASR - CNBC is getting ready to air an analyst on why TASR is over valued. Next 5-10 min

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:38:05 PM
The OEX appears headed down for a retest of the important (to the OEX, at least) 120-minute 100/130-pma's. Those averages are at 554.20 and 553.79, respectively. It has broken through what I would consider the neckline of the H&S on the 60-minute chart, with a downside target now of about 550. However, I would expect some degree of a bounce attempt as the 120-minute 100-pma is hit, perhaps up to retest that broken neckline and see if the resistance holds. If it doesn't, well, we know what happens when a bearish formation gets rejected, right?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:36:58 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) $14.40 +18.90% .... was stopped out on decline to $14.05. Will continue to monitor in sessions to come.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  2:35:28 PM
If the Dow closes in the red today it will break a 5-year winning streak for the Thursday before the Good Friday market holiday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:34:09 PM
Per Linda's reply ... was just wondering.... the "candlestickers" liked the chart and your comments in last night's Index Trader Wrap.

Didn't know if you saw any "flying dragons," or "six serpents swimming" today. (grin).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:28:38 PM
Taser (TASR) $99.93 +1.88% ... 5-minute chart updated ... Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  2:28:08 PM
If you're expecting the markets to bounce higher next week put MXIM on your watch list for a breakout over the $50.00 mark. It could see a run toward $55 before its April 27th earnings report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:27:27 PM
Sorry, Jeff, I was answering reader email and didn't note your 14:20 post until now. I've mentioned yesterday's reversal pattern in passing today, mostly with reference to how difficult it is to trust a reversal signal these days, but not since the OEX took this dive in the last few minutes. Earlier today, when the OEX was climbing, it was turning that reversal signal into a possible bull flag on the daily chart. That's kinda changed now, but this could zoom around a bit more into the closing, couldn't it?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:24:10 PM
Swing trade short alert .... QQQ $36.87 here, stop $37.12, target $36.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:23:25 PM
OEX.X 555.87 -0.25% ... breaking below YESTERDAY's lows.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  2:22:50 PM
Bears can keep an eye on Barr Labs (BRL). The stock is painting a bearish engulfing candlestick (and a failed rally at its 200-dma). Yet before you consider bearish positions keep in mind the stock has some support near $46, which coincides with its P&F support. Earnings should be on April 28th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:21:57 PM
Reader Question about INSP: A reader writes about the many gaps seen on INSP's chart, particularly the one that has just occurred. He comments that "after readings prings books he defines breakaway gaps, exhaustion gaps and others and basically states when you get a gap that does not back fill and runs and gaps again you may be able to see a the stock reverse from exhaustion. what are your thougths on the theory."

Response: My first thought is that INSP is a stock that tends to gap. I spot lots of gaps on INSP's daily chart. Breakaway, continuation or runaway, and exhaustion gaps tend to occur under different circumstances and some have more tendency to be filled quickly than others. As Pring discusses and Murphy and others concur, a breakaway gap usually occurs as the stock is breaking out of a price pattern. An example would be a downside gap that occurs as a stock or index breaks below a H&S neckline. A true breakaway gap usually occurs on strong volume, although that's not as necessary on a downside gap as on an upside one. A continuation or runaway gap occurs when a stock or index is moving in a straight line. That's also called a measuring gap by some, and often occurs about midway in a trend. If a trend had been in place for 10 points before the runaway gap, for example, it might be hoped that it would move about another 10 before running out of steam again. After two or three of those types of gaps, however, traders should begin worrying about an exhaustion gap occurring, with that being the last gasp of the previous movement.

All gaps perhaps provide some degree of gap support or resistance, and it's when they don't that we know a signal for a reversal has been given. In one of Nison's candlestick books, he recounts a tale of Japanese traders scanning charts for years back for old gaps. I've tried that, too, and have found that gap support (or resistance) often does come into play. I wouldn't base a play entry on that certainty, because there is no certainty, but I sure would avoid entering a bullish play just before the space of a previous gap was entered or a bearish play, either. I'd want to see how gap support or resistance was handled.

Breakaway gaps often aren't filled quickly. Because INSP's last gap occurred as the stock was breaking out of a bull flag pattern and because it was accompanied by strong volume, I'd term that a probable breakaway gap. Link Many of those other gaps on its chart appear to be breakaway gaps, too, not running gaps. However, possible breakaway gap or not this time, I'd sure be watchful for the possibility of an island reversal if INSP gapped down tomorrow, opening below today's opening level. In the case of ADR's, which often do gap more often, I sometimes don't give gaps as much credence as I do on other stocks, but I'm honestly not sure what to do about a stock like INSP, except be a little fearful of its trading pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:20:38 PM
Linda.... have you talked about your OEX candle chart today?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:18:43 PM
Xybernaut (XYBR) $1.29 +14.15% ... here's a quick intra-day workup. Link

5-MRT would be of little help, so using the "fitted" on a 5-minute bar, with same technique we use with a daily interval bar chart. The PINK level of 38.2% is from a fitted DAILY interval bar chart. Suggests the market maker has backed off to a level, in order to mittigate some of his/her risk as he/she tryies to provide liquidity to the markets.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:07:16 PM
Xybernaut (XYBR) $1.30 +15.04% ... Hi Jeff: Your old friend XYBR is getting some new life.... Any thoughts on the retracements?...

OK... didn't see it this morning.... I've still got my retracement from $0.21 to 100% at $3.05. This has XYBR right at the 38.2% of $1.30.

volume picking up intra-day and nice tight pennant forming last 40-minutes.

Resultant 50% retracement is higher at $1.63, and 19.1% retracement lower at $0.75.

Might look for further upside on break above $1.32.

I'll slap a 5-MRT on it and see what we come up with.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  2:04:25 PM
The OEX is coming back to retest the 11:20 low. As it's also reaching Keltner support, it may try for a bounce, as happened all yesterday afternoon as support and resistance were defined and held until the final breakout attempt. The OEX did break down from that triangle, but may now form a rectangular formation as it bounces between intraday support and resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  2:01:41 PM
REDG .... $15.13 +24.93% ... I'm going to adjust stop to $14.80, limit $14.65

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  1:45:46 PM
As often happens on days such as today, the OEX broke below the triangle formation on the chart included in my 13:17 chart, but it didn't go much of anywhere when it did. The Keltner channels still try to align themselves into an equilibrium position. Usually they can't stay there too long before breaking to the upside or the downside, but I've seen some days before holidays, opex expiration, or ahead of an important announcement when they do just that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:32:11 PM
REDF ... $14.84 +22.21% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:28:44 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:22:41 PM
REDF $14.60 +20.56% ... I'm going to raise a stop to $14.15, limit $14.00.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:20:44 PM
Not sure what the catalyst is but shares of Mobility Electronics (MOBE) are up 7.96% on top of yesterday's breakout over resistance at $9.50. Today's rally put its above round-number psychological resistance at $10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:17:13 PM
Taser Intl. TASR $100.05 +2.08% .... back at RED #1 here. Needs some volume.

5-minute bar chart shows MACD just edging back above zero. With stock not having gone negative on the session, might look for volume above 200,000 on a 5-mrt break above $100.50 to signal some short-covering coming in. Things might liven up from there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  1:17:13 PM
With Keltner channels settling into an equilibrium position, the OEX has also settled into a triangle formation, the perfect setting for a breakout one direction or the other. Here's the triangle: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:16:04 PM
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is probably one of the best bullish candidates I've seen today. The stock is breaking out over resistance at the $73.50 level. Earnings are expected on April 28th.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:13:25 PM
Lexmark Intl (LXK) is a big winner today (+3.9%) to $95.40 after UBS raised its price target from $98 to $107 this morning. I'd probably watch this one for a bounce from $92.00 after it fills this morning's gap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  1:09:38 PM
The OEX comes back up to test Keltner mid-channel resistance at 558.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:09:26 PM
REDF at $14.20 +17.17% it's been a horn of plenty.

If it trades "fitted resistance" at $14.84, I'll be on the floor.

Chart from 03/31/04 MM at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:08:57 PM
A couple of days ago JCI broke out over resistance at the $60 mark but it gave back two weeks of gains after Lehman Brothers downgraded the stock yesterday. Today we're seeing a very small bounce from six-week old support near the $56 level. Gamblers could roll the dice on a bounce from support but earnings are expected on April 15th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:07:48 PM
12:55 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:04:21 PM
It's okay, Linda. Qcharts came back to life.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  1:03:57 PM
More aggressive players can check out BWA. The company is due to announce around April 22nd (only 9 trading days) but the stock is rolling over under resistance at $88 and its 40-dma. Short-term oscillators look bearish and traders could target a move to $80 above the 200-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  1:01:14 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) $14.05 +16.35% and still alive (BLUE #6) here.

Up to #12 on % gainer list. (see 12:07:08, was #35)

Dau trader stop would be raised to $13.80 in my opinion if current gains not enough.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  12:59:47 PM
I'm still getting charts from Q-charts, James, but now I'm worried.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:56:55 PM
Rediff.com (REDF) $13.85 and BLUE #5.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  12:52:31 PM
Don't know about anyone else but Qcharts is no longer painting charts for me.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  12:51:22 PM
The SOX is finding support on its 100-dma, although on the last two days, the SOX pierced the average during the day. Each of those thrusts down touched the former descending trendline off the January high. Here's a chart: Link Oscillator evidence is mixed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:46:25 PM
REDF $13.37 +10.4% ... approaching BLUE #2 of $13.40. Slight pickup in volume here at session high. (see 12:26:40)

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  12:45:37 PM
possible bearish play... Phelps Dodge (PD) is breaking down under the $80.00 mark (after yesterday's close under the 50-dma). Not helping is the strong decline in copper futures. There could be support at the 100-dma near $77.75 but this does look like a bearish entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:36:23 PM
TBUS intra-day chart at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:26:40 PM
Rediff.com India (REDF) $13.15 +8.58% ... traded this one the other day (I think).... breaking above "zone of resistance" from two fitted retracement of $12.98.

5-MRT has BLUE #6 at $14.05. Opening 5 was from $13.00-$13.20

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:25:22 PM
Sina Corp. (SINA) $41.15 +6.46% ... interested, but fitted retracement from $16.86 and 38.2% at 07/29 close of $36.62 has stock just under 50% at $42.73. January highs pegged the resulting 61.8% at $48.83.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  12:24:59 PM
The TRAN turns down again today. The pattern on the TRAN's daily chart is not a recognizable one. The TRAN ha come to rest today on a former trendline, long ago violated and then climbed above again. MACD has not yet turned down and the TRAN holds above the 100-dma, so evidence remains mixed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:19:20 PM
Viisage Tech (VISG) $12.26 +9.47% .... pulls into BLUE #1 after morning high of $13.28 found BLUE #4. Two pretty good volume spike on up move from these levels had stock trading session high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  12:17:27 PM
If that's a H&S pattern forming on the OEX 60-minute chart, that's one solid right shoulder it's building, with that shoulder formed out of 60-minute candles that span nearly the entire height from neckline to tip of shoulder level. That right shoulder is becoming a bit extended, too, to the side, which should be making the bears nervous and watchful, guarding their stops. When those H&S's start getting extended to the right, we've often seen the pattern negated with a rise. There's no evidence that's going to happen yet, but be watchful for the possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:16:58 PM
Magal Security Systems (MAGS) $35.80 +10.04% .... good 5-minute volume, opened hot to $40.20, starting to backfill gap. Might be good long at RED #2 on backfill of morning gap. Nice opening 5-minute bar gives some potential day trade range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:14:30 PM
ValueClick (VCLK) $12.11 +11.61% .... decent volume rate on 5-minute intervals. Was a little pennant with apex at $11.70, might still provide a good 5-MRT trade into close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:08:37 PM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) $9.30 +34% ... how do you like these little guys?

Very tough to try and update/manage on intra-day trade basis, but traders with 2-minute and 5-minute intervals can really do some damage (good and bad).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:07:08 PM
List of % gainers at this Link

This is a QCharts hot list of percentage gainers I keep open. QCharts traders can simply click through list, and their chart will update each chart quickly where you can look for patterns.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  12:03:24 PM
Patterns here's a look at IPIX intra-day chart. Looking for Percentage gainers list early in morning, then look for these pennants. Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  12:00:51 PM
We are still un-triggered in the Teekay Shipping (TK) call play but the stock is bouncing from its simple 40-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:57:56 AM
EBAY, a current OI call play, has gapped above round-number resistance at the $75 mark this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  11:55:21 AM
U.S. Market Watch (11:53 AM EST) at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:53:51 AM
Here's a quick snap shot of the March same-store sales numbers. It's interesting that some of the higher-end stores like Neiman Marcus (NMG) and Nordstroms (JWN) have done so well.

NMG.A +25.7%
BEBE. +20.5%
CHS.. +18.9%
SMRT. +18.4%
SKFB. +17.2%
PLCE. +17.0%
JWN.. +15.9%
LTD.. +15.0%
ARO.. +14.2%
BKE.. +14.2%
MW... +12.6%
ANN.. +12.0%
PSUN. +12.0%
CACH. +12.0%
JCP.. +11.4%
GOT.. +11.2%
JOSB. +10.3%
MAY.. +10.0%
SKS.. +9.5%
ACMR. +9.4%
WMT.. +9.3% (Sam's club)
TJX.. +9.0%
BWS.. +9.0%
GPS.. +8.0%
GYMB. +8.0%
SE... +7.3%
TGT.. +7.3%
AEOS. +7.2%
IHOP. +7.1%
ROST. +7.0%
MIK.. +7.0%
FD... +6.8%
JAS.. +6.8%
WMT.. +6.0%
SHOE. +6.0%
STGS. +5.5%
RVI.. +4.1%
FRED. +4.1%
CHRS. +4.0%
HOTT. +3.9%
DG... +3.2%
HVT.. +3.1%
SHRP. +3.0%
FDO.. +2.4%
DUCK. +2.4%
BONT. +1.7%
TLB.. +1.1%
S.... +0.1%
GDYS. +0.25%
------------
KSS.. -0.9%
CTR.. -1.0%
ANF.. -1.0%
WLSN. -2.6%
HFK.. -3.6%
SCVL. -4.9%
DEBS. -5.2%
WTSLA -21.1%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  11:50:19 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $99.09 +1.06% ... intra-day chart per multiple requests. Link

BLUE/RED is today's 5-MRT, PINK is from recently fitted.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  11:42:12 AM
Jonathan's 11:18 futures post mentioned that Iraqi insurgents were possibly holding hostages. Some news reports say that Japanese citizens are among those hostages. In the overnight session, some credited the early jitteriness of the Nikkei's trading to reports that an explosion had occurred near a Japanese troop camp, with traders waiting at that time for further news. I was reading a Reuters headline earlier that an Iraqi group had threatened to kill 3 Japanese, demanding the withdrawal of Japanese troops within 3 days. With the Nikkei reaching recent new highs, I'm wondering how or whether that news will impact the Nikkei's trading pattern tonight.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:34:28 AM
Retailer Brookstone Inc (BKST) announced a 3-for-2 stock split this morning as shares trade to new all-time highs near $28.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  11:33:35 AM
I received an email from trusted market observer and subscriber S.O., verifying that she's seeing a possible H&S on the 60-minute OEX chart, too. It's almost always possible to draw at least two possible neckline levels for a H&S formation, and that's true on the current possible H&S on the 60-minute chart. One version would cross at about 556.35, so that is both a level at which we might expect a bounce attempt and the possible confirmation level. Lower-channel Keltner support lies at 555.09. S.O. also mentions the H&S on the five-minute chart. I'm not sure how likely that formation would be to meet any downside projected target, however, as it did not form after a climb, but instead the climb composed the formation.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:27:22 AM
The Mens Wearhouse (MW) announced March same-store sales that jumped 12.6% while total sales for the month rose more than 16%. Business is so good that MW said they expect to beat the high end of their previous earnings guidance (earnings are in May). The stock is down 4.31% but holding above support at its 40 & 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:24:01 AM
Hot Topic Inc (HOTT) is down 8.51% to $23.65 after announcing March same-store sales that grew 3.9%, which was under expectations for 5.7% growth. Volume is very strong and the move has turned its MACD back into a new sell signal but its P&F chart does have support at $20.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  11:21:46 AM
The OEX is dropping below the mid-channel Keltner support again.

 
 
  James Brown   4/8/2004,  11:18:40 AM
Sector Update...(the overall trend is green)

Winners:
INX Internet index: +3.37%
SOX semiconductors: +1.09%
IUX insurance index: +0.95%

Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -0.78%
RLX retail index: -0.63%
DJUSHB homebuilders: -0.68%
and..
Copper futures: -1.28%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  11:17:56 AM
InfoSpace (INSP) $44.39 +11.50% .... big move at open, BIG 5-minute bar.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  11:13:18 AM
Bullish day trade stopped alert in TBUS at $8.90 ...

Seeing a lot of good pops 20%+ for small caps from these intra-day pennant patterns.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  11:12:00 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:57:15 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert .... TBUS $9.40 +35% to $8.90

Post-profile high has been $10.24. I placed an intra-day upward regression on a 2-minute interval chart and recent pullback came to base regression channel. Upper-end now higher at $11.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:52:32 AM
Take another look at the OEX 60-minute chart linked to my 10:50 post. Does that look like a possible H&S building on that chart to anyone else but me?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:50:47 AM
Here's an observation on the OEX 60-minute chart: Link The action on that chart did not result in an immediate downturn, and instead was followed by a continued climb within the regression channel. While this morning's action validated resistance, the OEX has so far remained above strongest support, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:45:48 AM
Indecision over, the OEX is in the midst of printing a tall five-minute candle. Or is that indecision over after all? The current pattern could still be part of a bear-flag rise into resistance. Sometimes these start out small and then broaden into a wider flag, fooling those who were sure they were breaking out one direction or another.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:35:50 AM
The OEX is bouncing off mid-channel Keltner support, but five-minute candles are small and spiky, indicating some indecision about sending the OEX higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:28:32 AM
Day trade long alert .... Digital Records (TBUS) $9.15 here, stop $8.75, target $10.90.

Note 5-minute pennant similar to IPIX

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:26:05 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $15.91 +61% ... exploded from that 5-minute pennant.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:23:03 AM
Retail HOLDRs (RTH) 91.90 -1.46% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:21:47 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 343.93 -0.10% .... session high of 345.77 fell short of WEEKLY Pivot (345.95).

OEX.X 558.59 +0.23% ... session high 561.48 matched yesterday's high almost to the decimal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:21:04 AM
The OEX fell through mid-channel Keltner support, but it's trying to bounce back above it again as I type. Maybe that reversal signal meant something after all? First the OEX has to get below yesterday's low before we even begin believing in that possibility. After testing the violated regression channel from late March, it began falling back, but it hasn't yet violated yesterday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:11:54 AM
OEX resistance near 561.25-561.50 continued to hold, with the OEX falling to test 559 support. That support may not hold. Mid-channel Keltner support lies at 558.54.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:11:16 AM
Wholesale Inventories up 1.2%, while sales rose 1.3%.

has inventory to sales at record low 1.17 months.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  10:08:41 AM
The Bank of England did not change the rate today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  10:02:09 AM
Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) 603.59 +0.32% .... matched Monday's high of 606, but easing back.

Market seems focused on Rice 09/11 Testimony.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/8/2004,  10:00:47 AM
MAPI Survey = 78, (last 77%)
Wholesale Trade = +1.3%, (est +0.5%, last +0.6%)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/8/2004,  10:00:31 AM
*DJ U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise 1.2% In February

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/8/2004,  9:59:01 AM
5.75B in 8 day repos were added yesterday and 4.5B in 4-day repos have just been added in addition to the standard, ongoing 14-day Thursday repos. This shorter term money is clearly to cover the long weekend and any event risk. The Fed's 23 dealers are fully loaded with dry powder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  9:56:53 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $12.09 +22% .... yesterday I thought this one might need to settle down and digest some recent gains. Has gapped higher right back to $12.06 and tight 5-minute bar pennant develops. I have retracement from $1.90 to $12.06.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  9:53:22 AM
So far, resistance at from the former OEX ascending regression channel is holding, with the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline and recent historical resistance also nearby. I'm not sure it's going to hold, however, with today's action turning the week's trading pattern into what could be a possible bull flag on the daily chart. I mentioned late yesterday and again this morning that we all have reasons to distrust those reversal signals on the daily chart, and this is one reason why. I also mentioned that we have reason to distrust action on what could turn out to be a light-volume day ahead of a holiday, especially when it's the last trading day leading into opex week. If one is entering a bearish position based on the thought that the OEX will roll down from this resistance, be prepared for some whipsaws that might take one out of the trade, especially since the TRIN level remains bullish so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  9:52:18 AM
Sectors broadly higher with Internet (INX.X) 200.60 +3.65%, Semiconductor (SOX.X) 514.70 +1.47% and Disk Drive (DDX.X) 130.18 +1.35% early strength.

Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 101.67 -1.1%, and Homebuilders ($DJUSHB) 632.29 -0.08% only sectors in the red.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  9:49:28 AM
Retail HOLDRs (RTH) $93.00 -0.3% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  9:42:14 AM
Here's what the OEX is doing with respect to that former channel: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  9:40:36 AM
Option traders reminded that the markets are closed tomorrow, and April expiration is next Friday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  9:35:42 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from 557.28 to 561.12 . It's come up to retest the violated regression channel that had been containing prices since late March. Will that resistance hold?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  9:32:20 AM
The OEX has pushed above 559.50-560, and is moving toward top Keltner resistance currently at 561.58.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/2004,  9:23:39 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  9:13:59 AM
Yesterday was a bad day in OEX-land, at least for those who might have been thinking bullishly. Although the action didn't feel too bad after the opening drop as the OEX steadied throughout most of the rest of the day, a late-day surge higher was met by selling again and the day's candle was a distinctively bearish one. Not only was the day's candle a bearish one, but that candle also was the third in a three-candle bearish reversal signal. The OEX closed below the 50-dma.

I know: I can hear the groans out there at the mention of a bearish reversal signal when so many have failed to produce any decline other than the one that produced the signal. I'm groaning myself, yet it's necessary to mention these signs. This reversal signal has been accompanied by a bearish hook in the RSI, but not yet by similar bearish signs on daily 21(3)3 stochastics or on MACD. The MACD still shows a positive histogram level and still looks as if it's trying to push up through the signal line, so that certainly complicates any potential for the OEX to follow through on that reversal signal, doesn't it? The futures do, too, with those futures looking as if they're predicting a higher open as I type.

The OEX could open at resistance and plunge straight down to test recent lows, but somehow, it doesn't feel as if that's what's going to happen, at least not today. When the OEX climbed straight through December and early January, it did so without pausing long enough to establish support and resistance levels, and it feels to me as if the OEX is doing a whole lot of zooming around between the early December levels and the congestion zone near the year's high, trying to figure out where strongest support and resistance will lie. So, after a couple of days in which I haven't had strong opinions about the OEX's likely action, I'm beginning to wonder whether it might be possible that the OEX might try to settle into a consolidation zone, perhaps between 551.50 and 564, although it's also possible that the upper limit of that zone could press higher, to a test of the descending trendline off the January high. Of course, it's also possible that the OEX could press much lower, too, but that's why this is a potential scenario, and not a laid-in-stone path for the OEX, to be tested and retained or discarded according to OEX action. I laid out another potential scenario for an inverse H&S a couple of weeks ago, one which the OEX followed admirably for three or four days before breaking above the neckline without ever forming a right shoulder. When the OEX moved contrary to that scenario, we knew immediately when it was time to discard it.

The reversal signal on the daily chart suggests that the OEX might first head down to establish support, perhaps to 555.30, perhaps eventually near 551.50, if that scenario is a workable one. However, yesterday's strong after-the-bell showing by reporting companies and the subsequent bump higher in the futures, as well as the OEX's end-of-day halt on the 120-minute 21-pma argue that the OEX might not really be ready to retreat, confirmed reversal signal or not. Keltner channels usually give me an idea of short-term direction, but those Keltners showed the OEX dipping below mid-channel support and ending the day between that level and the bottom-channel support. The fastest 5(3)3 stochastics were already turning up again, while the 21(3)3's were still headed down, but looking as if they wanted to flatten their slope. MACD histogram levels were still negative and growing more so, but the MACD lines had not yet pushed through the signal level. Those channels look as if the OEX could go either way. If the OEX heads up first, as it looks as if it might do as I'm typing, then the 559-559.50 level is important to watch again. On the late-day push yesterday, the OEX could not maintain levels above that 559.50 mark, so that would be the bulls' first task today.

Be careful if considering any trades today. As Keene mentioned late yesterday, light volume can exaggerate moves, which means that support and resistance may both get overshot at times, running those stops, only to have the index turn around again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/8/2004,  8:31:50 AM
8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP 3,250 TO 336,750

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/8/2004,  8:30:47 AM
8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 14,000 TO 328,000

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/8/2004,  8:04:04 AM
We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 340K, and at 10AM, Feb. wholesale inventories, est. .3%. The PPI is listed as "TBA"- no date yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/8/2004,  7:09:32 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened near 12,000, climbed briefly, and then plummeted 70 points, nearly in a straight-down dive, to hit its low of the day. Then it began climbing, hitting its 12,119.31 high of the day about an hour before the close. It eased back a little into the close, but closed up by 72.97 points or 0.61%, at 12,095.59, producing yet-another 32-month closing high.

Mitsubishi announced that it would shut a factory in Japan that currently employs more than 1000 workers, shifting the production of the Pajero SUV to another plant. As part of its restructuring plan, Mitsubishi will turn its focus away from its less profitable models to more popular models. Mitsubishi dropped in early trading and was down 1.9% at the close.

However, most autos rose and big banks mostly traded higher, with some tech stocks and domestic issues closing lower. Yahoo Japan gained after its parent company's earnings report and split announcement yesterday, and Internet investor Softbank gained, too. Although many domestic issues closed lower, retailers were early leaders and closed higher after retailers Aeon and Ito-Yokada, the two biggest, either raised expectations or announced strong full-year profit. JP Morgan raised the rating of a third. NTT DoCoMo led the declines in early trading after it lost market share in fiscal 2004 to competitor KDDI, but I didn't find information on how the two closed. Perhaps of special interest was the news that Japan's FTC raided the offices of Intel Tokyo, perhaps as part of a probe into unfair practices.

Other Asian bourses mostly closed higher. Despite reporting strong demand and soaring March sales over the year-ago period, Taiwan Semiconductor eased 0.8%, but the Taiwan Weighted still closed higher by 0.39%. With the Bank of Korea leaving its rate steady and raising its Q1 GDP forecast, South Korea's Kospi gained 0.76%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.93%. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, down 0.08% and China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.24%.

Although many European bourses are closed today, the ones that are open are uniformly higher with the tech sector and a rebounding Nokia credited with helping those bourses to gain. DaimlerChrysler was not participating in any gains, however, dropping in early trading on the news that its shares no longer qualified for dividend payments. Earnings news begins to impact specific stocks and sectors, with Genentech's earnings report sending Switzerland Roche, its majority owner, higher. French supermarkets group Carrefour, cosmetics giant L'Oreal, and luxury goods heavy-weight LVMH Moet Hennessy all moved lower after their earnings reports, with Carrefour missing expectations and L'Oreal beating them but reporting performance in high-margin luxury goods that disappointed some.

The Bank of England meets today to decide on rates, with analysts holding mixed opinions about whether the Bank of England will raise rates or keep them steady. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has climbed 23.10 points or 0.52%, to 4491.80. The CAC 40 has climbed 18.99 points or 0.51%, to 3753.55. The DAX has climbed 37.74 points or 0.94%, to 4038.90.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/7/2004,  8:08:05 PM
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