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  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  5:44:44 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  5:14:54 PM
Final Earnings Update:

AMD est = +0.03, actual = +0.12 raised guidance
BRE est = +0.38, actual = +0.56
BRO est = +0.49, actual = +0.53
CEC est = +0.78, actual = +0.82 Lowered guidance
CCK est = -0.05, actual = -0.11
DRL est = +0.81, actual = N/A
DHI est = +0.71, actual = N/A
PGR est = +1.77, actual = +2.09
TSS est = +0.17, actual = +0.17
TXN est = +0.21, actual = +0.21 guidance inline
AAPL est = +0.10, actual = +0.14
CNET est = -0.04, actual = +0.02 guided inline
CLST est = +0.10, actual = N/A
EXTR est = -0.01, actual = -0.01
LRCX est = +0.10, actual = +0.13
PLNR est = +0.06, actual = +0.05
RBAK est = -0.14, actual = -0.15
RMBS est = +0.06, actual = +0.07
SNDK est = +0.32, actual = +0.34 cutting prices -20%
STLD est = +0.51, actual = +0.58

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  5:12:22 PM
Mace Security (MACE) $7.02 -30.83% ... updated 60-minute chart intervals with original "stacked" retracement at this Link

Will have to work on this one as we now have more data points to work with than we did from 04/12/04 setup.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  5:00:27 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $15.14 -29.31% ... updated 60-minute chart with original retracement from 04/08/04 at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:51:24 PM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) $9.38 -25% .... per trader's request for updated chart with retracement. Chart at this Link

Might have to work on this one, but was original retracement we were using.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:44:01 PM
QQQ $36.81 +0.49% .... post-market highs at $36.92.

Tomorrow's DAILY pivot levels... 36.17, 36.49, 36.72, 37.04, 37.27

Weekly S1 $36.57 and Weekly Pivot is $37.03,

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:39:42 PM
CEC Entertainment (CEC) $32.18 -1.62% ... higher at $32.75.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:37:58 PM
Apple Computer (AAPL) $26.64 -1.07% ... sharply higher at $28.30.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:28:06 PM
Advanced Micro (AMD) $17.12 -0.23% ... higher at $17.45.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:26:31 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $32.49 +3.04% .... sharply lower at $29.65

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:25:57 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $28.43 +0.53% ... edges up at $28.50

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:24:55 PM
Extreme Networks (EXTR) $7.46 +1.63% ... higher at $8.15.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:24:02 PM
CNET Networks (CNET) $12.28 +4.15% .... lower at $11.55.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:22:29 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN) $28.68 -1.03% ... higher at $29.00

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  4:16:42 PM
e-mini S&P (es04m) 10-minute delayed, but bears want to see a settlement below that 1,132.00-1,130.50 level for any type of bearish bias to hold. Link

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  4:03:03 PM
The OEX ended the day today just under the 72-ema I've been watching, with that average at 552.86. Today's OEX candle was a near-doji springing up from below the 21- and 100-dma's. That type of candle can be a potential reversal signal, but it would have to be confirmed by tomorrow's performance.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  4:01:00 PM
Earnings after the close:

AMD est = +0.03, actual = +0.12 raised guidance
BRE est = +0.38, actual = +0.56
BRO est = +0.49, actual = +0.53
CEC est = +0.78, actual = +0.82 Lowered guidance
CCK est = -0.05, actual = -0.11
DRL est = +0.81, actual =
DHI est = +0.71, actual =
PGR est = +1.77, actual = +2.09
TSS est = +0.17, actual = +0.17
TXN est = +0.21, actual = +0.21 guidance inline
AAPL est = +0.10, actual = +0.14
CNET est = -0.04, actual = +0.02 guided inline
CLST est = +0.10, actual =
EXTR est = -0.01, actual = -0.01
LRCX est = +0.10, actual = +0.13
PLNR est = +0.06, actual = +0.05
RBAK est = -0.14, actual = -0.15
RMBS est = +0.06, actual = +0.07
SNDK est = +0.32, actual = +0.34 cutting prices -20%
STLD est = +0.51, actual = +0.58

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:58:10 PM
Buy program premium

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  3:57:52 PM
The OEX turns up to head toward that double-bottom confirmation level near today's high, but first it's going to encounter mid-channel Keltner resistance from 552.42-552.51.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  3:57:35 PM
Trading halts beginning for stocks reporting after the bell. I will be posting the earnings starting in about 3 min.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:57:23 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert ... for WFC $55.16 offer.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:57:14 PM
The consolidation above $40.00 in Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP) has been going on for weeks. The trend of lower highs could soon bear fruit and ripen into a breakdown under the $40 support level but earnings are approaching on April 22nd.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:50:12 PM
Sybase Inc (SY). A quick glance at SY shows it could be a bearish play with a trigger under the $18.00 mark to catch the next leg down but earnings are expected on April 21st, which doesn't give traders a lot of time.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  3:38:01 PM
Remember recently how so many indices appeared to be forming inverse H&S's on their daily charts, but they shot up through the neckline without waiting around to form right shoulders? The TRAN may be more patient, currently pulling back in a possible right shoulder. Here's the formation as seen on a 720-minute line chart: Link This is important because the TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, the way that the SOX sometimes leads the Nasdaq. Currently, the TRAN is at 2900 support, trying to move back up, but if this is a right-shoulder formation, symmetry suggests it will take a bit longer to continue filling out.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:34:49 PM
Provident Financial Group Inc. (PFGI) is dropping under support at $38.00 and appears to be in "fill the gap" mode, which should lead it toward the $35.00 level.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:31:34 PM
Borg Warner (BWA) was on the weekend watch list as a bearish candidate due to its failed rally pattern. It appears to be playing out with clear resistance at its simple 40-dma and the recent breakdown under its 10 & 21-dma's. Its technical MACD oscillator is about to turn bearish as well. The stock is near $83 and appears headed for a test of support at $80.00 and its 200-dma.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:25:37 PM
Observation... 3Com Corp (COMS) is up 4.92% on decent volume in a big rebound from its 50-dma and the $7.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  3:25:00 PM
Here's a chart showing the Fib levels marking the OEX rally off the March 24 low: Link This shows 547.36 to be the 50% retracement of that rally, the last-ditch support if this formation is supposed to be a mere pullback to support. That makes that . . . you guessed it: a possible bounce point.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:24:48 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 499.58 -1.31% ... back to new session low. Buy program didn't help too much.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  3:24:02 PM
Earnings after the close:

AMD est = +0.03, actual =
BRE est = +0.38, actual =
BRO est = +0.49, actual =
CEC est = +0.78, actual =
CCK est = -0.05, actual =
DRL est = +0.81, actual =
DHI est = +0.71, actual =
PGR est = +1.77, actual =
TSS est = +0.17, actual =
AAPL est = +0.10, actual =
CNET est = -0.04, actual =
CLST est = +0.10, actual =
EXTR est = -0.01, actual =
LRCX est = +0.10, actual =
PLNR est = +0.06, actual =
RMBS est = +0.06, actual =
SNDK est = +0.32, actual =
STLD est = +0.51, actual =

Earnings Thursday Morning:

C est = +0.95,
NE est = +0.20,
CY est = +0.18,
CAL est = -1.43,
EMC est = +0.06,
GTK est = +0.67,
PEP est = +0.46,
LUV est = +0.05,
DHI est = +0.71,
UNH est = +0.87,
CHIC est = -0.01,
DECK est = +0.46,
EMMS est = -0.08,
FITB est = +0.75,
GENZ est = +0.37,
LSTR est = +0.23,
MRCY est = +0.29,
TRAD est = +0.07,

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:23:13 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:19:58 PM
Buy Prog. Premium

Just as SOX.X traded 500.00

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  3:19:37 PM
I suspected that bounce up from the equal low on the OEX might not get far, and it didn't. We've had another new low on the OEX, erasing the bullish divergence on the five-minute chart.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:18:26 PM
I can't find any news but Radian Group Inc. (RDN), an insurance stock, is up 3.35% and breaking out over its 100 & 200-dma's with strong volume during the last two sessions. Earnings should be April 21st.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  3:16:56 PM
Reader Question: I was looking over a chart of the VXO. It used to be one of my favorite indicators a few years back (Sell at 20 and Buy at 50). Never the less I pulled a chart of the Vix and notice the MACD making a bullish cross (the 21,3,3 stoch already did). Also, look at the bullish divergence from the March 8th cross on the MACD to today's potential MACD cross. If the Vix also closes positive it will cross its 200DMA as well. A rising Vix is always bad for the markets. Am I way off on my analysis that the Vix could be poised for another pop?

Response: Great observations. We've had some lively discussions about the VIX lately, or at least as lively as we get here on the MM, with the conclusion from many of us writers that while we can't always use the VIX as a timing tool since market moves sometimes happen days before/after a VIX high or low, we would also be foolish to ignore the VIX. Over the last few weeks, I've been periodically posting charts showing how the VIX has moved in accordance with the daily 100/130-dma's. Early this morning, before I had to be away, I noted that the VIX had moved up yesterday to a closing value above the 100-dma and that it was beginning to move over the 130-dma this morning. Since then and since this reader's email, it has fallen back to retest the trendline in this chart: Link I believe that we should remain aware of those observations you've made and use observations about the VIX as one tool among many. The VIX has been even less reliable as a market-timing tool in recent history than it was previously. Of course, that's with the exception of the early April move that occurred in lockstep with a market move just after several of us had spent countless posts explaining just how dangerous it was to rely on the VIX as a market-timing tool.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:16:45 PM
Hillenbrand Industries (HB) looks a little overbought from its late March lows and could play catch up with the markets (to the downside) now that its rolling over under $70.00.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:14:29 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 500.83 -1.07% ... session lows here, 500.00 about to be tested.

Intra-day trade at its MONTHLY 38.2% (503.18) looked similar to the BIX.X late morning, where SOX found resistance on bounce to 503.18.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:12:08 PM
OI call play PDCO is hitting new all-time highs (+2.38%) and should close above resistance near $76 if current strength holds.

Remember that our planned exit was a move into the $77.50-80.00 range so traders can be preparing their exit strategies.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:09:58 PM
Commerce Bancorp Inc (CBH) beat earnings by a penny on Tuesday morning but it wasn't enough to satisfy investors. The stock has dropped from Monday's close at $66.55 to its current level at $59.29 under support at its 50-dma and the $60.00 mark. Volume has been very strong. There is additional support near the $57.50 level and its 100-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:06:47 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert for Wells Fargo (WFC) $55.06 -1.06% to $55.25.

At this point, if sellers are going to drive to the close, then I don't think WFC should trade $55.25.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:05:38 PM
One of today's bullish leaders is Career Education Corp (CECO). The stock is up 2.99% and breaking out over resistance at $60.00 after a broker raised its price target to $70.00. CECO is due to report earnings on April 20th.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  3:03:30 PM
Greenpoint Financial (GPT), a mortgage lender, is getting hammered with strong losses in the last three sessions. Today's 3.89% drop is a breakdown below the $40.00 mark and its 100-dma. The next level of support should be the 200-dma near $36.00.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  3:00:11 PM
SPX right at its MONTHLY Pivot of 1,125.61 as bond market closes.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:56:42 PM
AMD and AAPL are both trading lower as investors do some last minute positioning before these two companies announce earnings after the close. Estimates for AMD are 3 cents a share. Estimates for AAPL are for 10 cents a share.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:55:33 PM
Buy program premium

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:55:14 PM
Somebody is buying as the equal (or almost equal) low was hit on OEX, but will the buying hold? A double-bottom would not be confirmed until a move above today's high, at which point an upside target of about 558.39 will be set. We're a long, long way from that happening yet, however.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:55:13 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 332.39 -1.48% .... holding around DAILY S@ (332.17) after session low of 332.03.

Bond market closes in 5-minutes.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:52:05 PM
Although I can call up a chart titled with the name of today's IPO, Corcept Therapeutics Inc., or CORT, I'm not yet getting any prices on it, so I'm not sure if it was actually released today or not.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:49:42 PM
Wells Fargo (WFC) $54.96 -1.23% ...

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:49:12 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 332.17 -1.55% ... DAILY S2 here. Intra-day moment of truth.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:48:16 PM
I haven't seen a sell program premium al_rt generated at this point. May take a violation of SPX morning lows 1,122.96 to get one.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:48:02 PM
The OEX is reaching an equal-low level, a potential bounce point. How many times have I typed those last three words over the last couple of days? Lots of times, but it will be true some time or another. Just guard your profits if in bearish plays.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:45:51 PM
Intl. Paper (IP) $41.60 +0.07% ... giving it up after morning highs came at BLUE #6 and trading BLUE #4 here. Swing trade bears after seeing GP news/price action would like to see IP further weak below BLUE #2 and that little intra-day pennant.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:45:50 PM
I notice that the DAX fell below 4000 today, plunging more than 100 points into the red at one point, but it recovered in the last couple of hours of trading to close down 58.65 points or 1.44%, at 4012.77.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:43:54 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 502.26 -0.78% ... just tested WEEKLY S1 (501.84) for first time this week.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:39:30 PM
One of our readers was asking about YHOO as a potential short-term call play.

Personally, I'd be cautious. The stock is trading lower (okay, it's up 47 cents today) and has already started to fill the gap from last week. It could bounce from its rising 10-dma (currently near 51.50) but it probably needs to trade to $51.00 to satisfy the gap. The gap is actually from $48.35 to $55.79 but the early April high near $51 should suffice.

Obviously there is no guarantee that says YHOO has to "fill the gap" but it happens more often than you'd think. There are probably a number of momentum players looking to buy the dip in anticipation of its May 12th 2-for-1 split.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:34:02 PM
02:30 PM Market Watch at this Link

Seems like as soon as HUI.X and BIX.X failed morning bounce, things softened again.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:33:11 PM
Will it or won't it? The OEX creeps ever so slowly toward a lower low, but it hasn't hit it yet. So far. A new low will erase the bullish divergence since it's formed from lower lows on the oscillators with higher (so far) lows on the price.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:32:21 PM
Will wonders never cease..Tyco (TYC) is announcing their new water-look-alike SAPPHIRE(tm) Fire suppression system.

from their press release:

The SAPPHIRE Suppression System uses 3MŽ NOVEC(TM) 1230 Fire Protection Fluid. It looks exactly like water, but does not cause the type of damage associated with water when putting out a fire. It can be used to protect rare exhibits, electronic equipment and other delicate items without causing any harm. In fact, items can even be immersed in the agent. The fire protection fluid will quickly evaporate, safeguarding these items -- and leaving them unaffected.

The SAPPHIRE Suppression System chemically interferes with the fire combustion process, therefore bringing it to a halt. It also works faster than a water sprinkler system, which is designed to work when it detects an actual flame. SAPPHIRE Suppression Systems detect fire at invisible levels, identifying particles of combustion before they turn into damaging flames.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:28:32 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 333.55 -1.14% ... session lows. Daily S2 at 332.17 or MONTHLY S2 at 327.20.

Regional Bank HOLDRs (AMEX:RKH) $127.55 -1.74% ... matching the BKX.X 96.75 -1.74% at this point.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:27:40 PM
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) was on the OI watch list last night for a potential bearish breakdown under support at $30.00 (& 28.50), which would lead it into a freefall zone without much support toward $20.00. The stock is bouncing today after its shareholders approved an increase in authorized shares and the previously announced 2-for-1 stock split. The split will be payable on April 23rd.

I'd still keep an eye on CALM as the stock is failing under resistance at its 10 & 100-dma's.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:26:34 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert for Wells Fargo (WFC) $55.18 -0.81% to $55.58

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:24:08 PM
Honda Motor Co (HMC) is breaking down below its simple 50-dma after announcing a recall for 600,000 light trucks to repair their automatic transmissions.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:20:34 PM
Wells Fargo (WFC) $55.23 -0.75% ... here's quick look at intra-day chart, thoughts... Link

  James Brown   4/14/200,  2:20:02 PM
Hmm... crossing the headlines is a note saying S&P plans to launch a long/short hedge fund index.

From their press release...
The S&P Equity Long/Short Index is designed to represent the range of hedge funds that relies on fundamentally driven, bottom-up research for long and short stock picks, and that attempts to create alpha on both sides of the market while limiting overall portfolio risk. The S&P Equity Long/Short Index includes 24 funds screened for asset size, tenure, and style purity. The index includes two regional sub-indices: one with a U.S. focus and one with a Global-Ex-U.S. focus, each comprising 12 funds.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:19:40 PM
Others have probably mentioned it already, but I'm seeing some bullish divergence begin to develop on the OEX five-minute chart. That can be erased if the OEX falls to a new low, but it's tentatively showing that bullish divergence.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  2:11:09 PM
I'm just returning to find that the OEX climbed to the bottom of the 553.60-555.40 zone I'd listed in my 9:15 post as first resistance before it rolled down. In my last post this morning before leaving I cautioned to watch for a rollover from one of those listed levels, so perhaps some of you either entered new bearish positions or else stayed in one on a rollover beneath resistance. However, as the OEX descends, its candles grow smaller and it may be that selling has lessened. After yesterday's discussion about the TRIN, I'm confused about which chart to use, but the value I'm watching now as I return doesn't look all that bearish. Be careful if in bearish trades.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:08:46 PM
Bank components of both the BKX.X and BIX.X at this Link

There is overlap of components, so I've sorted by stock symbol.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  2:02:11 PM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 97.22 -1.27% ... session lows, but no "throw the baby out with the bath water" at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  1:59:05 PM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6.559.21 -0.37% .... data feeds look to be working again.

Current level of trade is right where an 11:05 buy program premium was found.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  1:48:34 PM
Tech stocks are showing strength with all the major sector indices in the green....

DDX disk drives: +1.51%
INX Internet index: +0.34%
GSO software index: +0.24%
NWX networking: +0.13%
SOX semiconductors: +0.07%
GHA hardware index: +0.05%

also strong right now...
DRG drug index: +1.09%
BTK biotechs: +0.74%

And it's interesting to note the homebuilders have turned green...
DJUSHB home construction: +0.15%

  James Brown   4/14/200,  1:41:32 PM
Investors didn't react well to news that American Standard Cos (ASD) only beat by a penny when it announced earnings this morning of $1.14 per share. Revenues jumped 12% and came in stronger than expected but the company only guided inline for the next quarter. Remember that ASD still has a 3-for-1 split to be approved at their annual meeting on May 4th. Here's a chart: Link

  James Brown   4/14/200,  1:31:12 PM
VaxGen, Inc. (VXGN) is up slightly today after issuing a press release this morning reporting positive results from two animal studies (mice and rabbits) on its developing Smallpox vaccine.

Despite the positive news the stock continues to struggle under resistance near $12.40.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  1:27:25 PM
Dow component DuPont (DD) is up 2.79% to $44.91 after pre-announcing stronger earnings for the March quarter. Previous forecasts were in the 65-76 cent range compared to consensus estimates of 73 cents per share. DD now sees earnings of 95 cent (it reports on April 27th). The No 2 chemical manufacturer in the U.S. said "the improved results reflect a strong quarter for its Agriculture & Nutrition segment and higher than expected volumes across most businesses."

DD just recently announced it would cut 3,500 jobs but the impact on earnings wouldn't be felt until the second quarter.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  1:22:41 PM
The Max-Pain numbers would suggest there is not much movement in our future for the rest of the week. Most of the indexes are already at or near their expiration levels and market makers will likely try to keep them there. The Russell is weaker than the rest with the max-pain level at 590 well above the current 584 and falling. This suggests the small caps could see a small bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  1:22:12 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

All data vendors not getting up to date feeds for NYSE Composite since about 12:40 PM EDT.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  1:20:20 PM
Max-Pain numbers for April

SPX 1125
NDX 1450
DJX 103
OEX 555
RUT 590
SOX 490
QQQ 36
MMM 80
IBM 95
GE 30

  James Brown   4/14/200,  1:19:19 PM
Beleaguered Tenet Healthcare (THC) is down another 3.82% on news that the Feds have opened two new inquiries. One to its billing practices at its Desert Regional Medical Center in Palm Springs, CA and the second inquiry into THC's relationship between its Centinela Hospital Medical Center in Inglewood, CA and Allied Homecare Consultants, Inc. (-Reuters).

The stock had been suffering under resistance at its simple 40-dma the last week or so and now looks ready to re-challenge psychological support at the $10.00 mark.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  1:00:41 PM
Day trade short alert ... Wells Fargo (WFC) $55.50 -0.26% ... short market to $55.28 IF WFC trades $55.39, stop $55.75, target $54.10.

I've got a 5-MRT set on first 10-minutes $55.28-$55.00 (delayed open).

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:51:58 PM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 97.55 -0.94% ... weaker than BIX.X right now, leading to downside. Watch MWD here. $53.46 -1.76%, right at RED #2 of 5-mrt.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:46:44 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 335.79 -0.47% .... 10-minute interval chart, where SPX/SPY traders can make some observation as to staggering of levels right now. Link

Seems very "computer-driven" right now.

Shorter-term traders in banking stock can also use, with thought that morning highs of a banking stock, correlative with BIX.X MONTHLY S1 resistance.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  12:46:29 PM
The Fed Funds Futures jumped this morning after the CPI reported a strong rise in inflation. At the close yesterday the futures were predicting a quarter point hike in Aug/Sept but with the bounce today that prediction has moved into the July timeframe. There is no meeting in July but there is a two day meeting on June 29/30th.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  12:43:30 PM
Merrill Lynch said today that average oil prices would likely rise to $28-$30 a barrell in the long term, well above the $18-$22 range established in the 1980s and 90s. Recently the target price has been $25 but even that has since faded. Merrill thinks OPEC does not have the capacity to reduce the shortage when compared to the ever increasing global demand. They suggestes integrated oil company stocks could out perform the market by +7% to +10% over the next 12 months.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  12:39:29 PM
Treasury Secretary Snow repeated his support for a strong dollar this morning. (Yawn, what else is new?) He did say that inflation in China was beginning to rise and the bubble may be about to burst. (loose translation)

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  12:36:37 PM
Bad news for builders. The Mortgage Bankers Association said new mortgage loans will fall to $1.86 trillion by 2006 compared to the expected $2.57 trillion in 2004. They say the demand shrinkage will be due to rising home prices and rising interest rates that will make home buying less attractive. They are expectig sales of new homes to rise by only +0.7% in 2004 before falling -10% in 2005 and another -1.0% in 2006. Home prices are expected to rise +4.5% this year and +4% in each of 2005 and 2006.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:35:39 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $96.71 +1.44% ... very quiet of late. Updated 60-minute intervals chart at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:22:39 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 336.13 -0.37% .... intra-day chart does show this morning bounce finding resistance at the MONTHLY S1.

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,131.32 +0.16% ... intra-day chart shows morning resistance at its WEEKLY S1 of 1,132.37.

Such a struggle right now with thought of higher rates coming at the hands of what is some robust economic data.

A year ago, it was a negative for no pricing pressures (deflation), now market struggles with thoughts of some pricing pressures (inflation) being bad. Can't have it both ways, and that's what everyone seems to want.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:11:38 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  12:00:12 PM
International Paper (IP) $41.78 +0.50% ... now at session high and reclaiming its 21-day SMA.

My thoughts right now are that GP's upside guidance a negative for being short IP, and IP may well be bidding based on today's news.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  11:51:08 AM
June Crude Oil futures (cl04m) $36.10 -1.58% .... API reported that crude oil inventories rose by 10.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 458 barrels, and distillates fell by 2.5 million barrels.

Department of Energy said its report will be delayed until 02:00 PM EDT.

  Jane Fox   4/14/200,  11:14:19 AM
I actually had a Qcharts support person call me this morning and explain the differences in the TRIN numbers. The INDEX:TRIN is a feed from Comstock and is the REAL TRIN for the NYSE. The QC:TRIN is a Qcharts calculation, thus the QC, for all US stocks. If you want Qcharts calculation for NYSE TRIN then just add ".NY" to the symbol = QC:TRIN.NY. Qcharts was having difficulties with their calculations yesterday so that is why we were all getting different numbers.

I asked if they could get a feed from Comstock for all US stocks for I know some subscribers want this number instead but he was not able to provide that to me and will get back to me.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  11:09:27 AM
11:07 AM Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  11:05:25 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Keene Little   4/14/200,  10:48:41 AM
LOL, very good Jim. Too bad it's so true.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  10:43:48 AM
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  Jane Fox   4/14/200,  10:41:42 AM
The SEC has approved rules requiring mutual fund companies to tell investors about any market-timing in their funds as well as regulations about fair-value pricing of funds and disclosing their portfolio holdings. The rules take effect Dec. 5 beginning the first step of the regulatory and legislative cleanup of the mutual fund industry.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:39:40 AM
Mace Security (MACE) $8.70 -14% ... defensive on Wall Street Journal article questioning recent run-up in stock's price, mentioning of opened trading window for directors/executives to sell stock. Article also notes that MACE recently received a subpoena from SEC for information relating to certain transactions.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:33:34 AM
Georgia Pacific (GP) $34.66 +1.58% ... upside warning for Q1 (March) saying it now sees EPS of $0.60 (excluding $0.06 charge), which is well above consensus of $0.48.

It was last week that Jonathan noted GP was raising some prices (inflation?) for paper plates and cutlery.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:16:34 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 336.80 -0.17% .... claws back to MONTHLY S1 after morning low of 334.11.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) Link (weekly intervals) up 8.1 basis points on the session, where session high yield of 4.469% just under horizontal yield resistance of 45.00, or 4.5%.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:07:28 AM
Early Percentag Gainer/loser list at this Link

Yesterday I looked at CNLG Link on my own as bullish bar chart pattern, but for MM, I thought liquidity not there. Traders on their own might look to work this one.

  Jim Brown   4/14/200,  10:04:35 AM
With SNDK earnings after the close any buyers in the stock this morning may be in for a rude surprise this afternoon.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  10:04:10 AM
We're getting a bounce in the OEX, from $0.14 above the 448.80 level I mentioned as possible support this morning. Be careful now, as it may take a little while for the OEX to pick itself up, shake itself off, and decide what shape it wants any rise to take--a quick rush higher or a staggering, back-and-forth climb typical of a bear flag or other formation. This is the part we have to let play out, but be careful of your stops if in a bearish play.

I have to be gone for an hour or two this morning. I anticipate that it will take that long for the OEX to decide on direction and begin forming up. Watch some of those levels I mentioned in my first OEX-related post this morning for a possible rollover from resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:03:14 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $32.68 +3.64% ... gainer in the Disk Drive Index (DDX.X). Sector breadth positive at 8:2.

NTAP +1.36%, ADIC +1.35%, ADPT +1.25% ... MXO -0.62%, IOM -0.18%

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:02:16 AM
10:00 AM EDT Market Watch screen at this Link

  James Brown   4/14/200,  10:00:50 AM
We're really starting to see some technical damage done in the homebuilders. The DJUSHB has gapped lower under its simple 100-dma and under the 600 level this morning.

DHI is also under support at its 100-dma and the $30.00 mark.

RYL broke down under its 200-dma yesterday and continues to fall today.

HOV & CTX are testing their 200-dma's this morning.

TOL is under its 100-dma and trying to hold support at the $40.00 mark.

MTH is breaking down under its 100-dma now.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  9:57:30 AM
Sector update...

DDX disk drives: +0.57%
XAL airlines: +0.32%
DFI defense: +0.18%
BTK biotech: +0.24%
DRG drugs: +0.16%
TRAN transports: +0.09%
SOX semiconductors: +0.03%

(biggest) Losers:
DJUSHB homebuilders: -2.28%
UTY utilities: -1.44%
XAU gold/silver: -1.84%
BKX banking: -0.95%

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:56:19 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 334.54 -0.84% Link ....

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,127.54 -0.16% Link ....

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 551.72 -0.09% Link .... (unconventional 2.5-point box size)

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:55:30 AM
Buy Program Prem.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:54:59 AM
The RLX, the S&P Retail Index, is sitting on one level of historical support, but is lower this morning. The March and April highs were close enough in value that they might be considered a double-top formation, but that would need to be confirmed by a fall below the March low at 378.74. The RLX is now at 389.01 and trying to bounce. The 21(3)3 stochastics and RSI are in full bearish roll. MACD has made a bearish kiss although from above signal, and histogram values are negative.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  9:54:52 AM
Dow component 3M (MMM) announced that it has received an "approvable" letter from the FDA for its new Aldara Cream, a treatment for non-melanoma skin cancer. The FDA is still requesting more data and MMM believes this will take another six months. According to MMM's press release Aldara cream is the "first and only patient-applied immune response modifier".

Shares of MMM gapped lower at the open but they are up significantly off their lows, currently down 25 cents to $82.14.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:54:33 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 588.03 -2.31% Link ...

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:51:01 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 56.26 +0.05% Link .... only equity sector I show posting gain right now.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:50:09 AM
Two important daily averages are just above the current OEX price: the 21-dma at 549.997 and the 100-dma at 550.47. The OEX needs to get back above those averages before it can make much of a bounce effort.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  9:48:53 AM
OI call play EBAY dipped to its simple 10-dma (73.90) this morning and is trying to bounce. The stock is positive by 2 cents at $74.70.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  9:46:42 AM
New OI put play QLGC has broken through support at $31.00.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:46:11 AM
Yesterday, the VIX did not manage a close above both the 100- and 130-pma's on the daily chart, but it did eke out a closing value above the 100-dma. This morning, it's moving back above the 130-dma again, but let's see if it holds beyond the early-morning volatility.

  James Brown   4/14/200,  9:44:15 AM
Current OI put play Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC), one of the largest mortgage lenders, is down another 2.68% and struggling to hold support at its simple 100-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:43:59 AM
Sectors broadly weak in early going with AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 208.05 -2.62% Link , Health Providers (RXH.X) 360.21 -1.83%, Money Center Banks (BKX.X) 97.39 -1.10% early losers.

Semiconductor (SOX.X) 506.14 (unch), Insurance ($IUX.X) 332.29 -0.07%, and Disk Drive (DDX.X) 125.84 -0.09% showing relative strength.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:41:14 AM
Off the charts. That's where the OEX is, moving down so quickly that the five-minute candles are moving below the bottom of my chart screen and I'm having to rescale the chart. Be careful, though, as I agree with Keene that we could be setting up for a pop. Protect your profits if in bearish plays, but I also agree with Jim (both on the Futures side) that this might not be a good time for a long play even if we all fear a bounce. Fearing one isn't the same as expecting one. Nimble traders might be able to capitalize on a bear flag bounce by going long, but that's only if it performs in a classic manner, and during an opex week, you can't count on that. We could instead have a series of small bear flags that are followed by deep plunges.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:40:17 AM
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) $29.83 -15% Link ... among most actively traded with company guiding Q2 (April) below consensus. TTWO now sees a loss of $0.15 per share versus consensus looking for a profit of $0.34. Guidance cut as a result of delaying its launch of Red Dead Revolver game to Q3 from Q2.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:36:35 AM
International Paper (IP) $41.15 -1.01%

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:35:57 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 552.24 to 549.50, and it still continues lower.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:34:02 AM
The OEX is dropping straight toward possible support at 548.80-549. For those who might have carried bearish positions overnight, it's time to be following the OEX lower with your stops. The Keltner channels have given a breakout signal. While these are often valid signals, they're also signals that the OEX is very oversold on a short-term basis and may bounce up to mid-channel resistance if not higher. That mid-channel resistance is currently at 555.50, but will begin dropping quickly now if the OEX continues lower.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:24:20 AM
For those who are interested in joining me in tracking an IPO according to Jeff's 5MRT system, for the purpose of gathering anecdotal evidence as to the effectiveness of this tool for trading IPO's on their first day of trading, there's going to be an IPO today, CORT. I don't know much about it at this time and am not sure when it begins trading, but I hope to find out more information later. As I've said in this past, we're just tracking these to see how effective this method is since we have few tools by which to analyze trades in IPO's. There are no MA's, trendlines, or historical S/R to watch. Jeff's method seemed one way in which we could measure strength or weakness and make some decisions. I'm not a big daytrader now, although I certainly was in the past, and I thought this method might be interesting for readers, but I'm far from gathering enough evidence to suggest that readers trade based on this system just yet.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:22:51 AM
Mortgage Bankers Assoc. Table at this Link

Two sharp declines of 15% and now 30.7% in the refinance index gives some insight as to recent weakness in the regional banks, while recent weekly decline in the homebuilders would tie more in with the purchases index. In PINK, I've benchmarked current 30-year fixed rate mortgage with similar levels found in late November and early December.

  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:18:02 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jane Fox   4/14/200,  9:16:10 AM
The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services narrowed to $42.09 billion in February from an upwardly revised shortfall of $43.46 billion in January. The January deficit was previously reported at an all-time high of $43.06 billion.

The February deficit was only slightly smaller than Wall Street had expected. Ahead of the report, a Dow Jones-CNBC survey of 17 economists had forecast a deficit of $42.60 billion.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  9:15:14 AM
Yesterday was an ugly day on the OEX, with the OEX falling out the bottom of what many hoped would be a bull flag formation. By noon, the OEX had fallen through the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, and followed that action by falling through the closely grouped 60- and 120-minute versions, more significant to the OEX in my opinion. That was a clear bearish signal. However, as the day ended, the OEX closed at historical support near 552 and on the 72-ema that has seemed significant to the OEX's trading pattern for some months now. Here's a chart: Link What next? It should be time for a bounce, but the OEX kept hitting levels all day yesterday that should have produced a bounce and never did. I would consider any bounce to be a countertrend move at this point, likely to find resistance at the early April gap level at 553.60-555.40, with mid-channel Keltner resistance also at 555.54. The 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's currently all congregate between 554.20 and 554.47, adding their resistance to this zone. Higher, resistance might be found at historical resistance from 557-558.50 or so. As yesterday's trading closed, the OEX appeared to be rising in a possible bear flag formation toward resistance.

What if the indices keel over instead as futures suggest they might do? Not so far below the current level, the 548.90-551 level might provide some support. I'm never good at estimating where the OEX will open based on what S&P futures are doing, but it wouldn't be a wild guess to believe that the OEX could open within that possible support zone. There's another congestion zone from 542-545.60, perhaps also providing some support. Fib levels to watch include 551, the approximate 38.2% retracement of the rally off the March 24 low; 546, the 50% retracement; and 543.70, the 61.8% retracement, also a gap level and a historical support level. At the end of trading yesterday, the OEX had been trying to move up in a shaky possible bear flag, but it's possible that this morning's open could set the stage for a double-bottom instead or even a lower low on that five-minute chart. For the sake of those wanting new bearish entries, I'd like to see the OEX form that bear flag and climb up to resistance, perhaps from 553.60-555.40, but for the sake of those already in bearish plays, I'd like for it to just plunge straight from here. I don't think I'd suggest a long play at this point, although those who are nimble might be able to profit from trading that bear flag rise, if one should occur. It's not a play I'd suggest during opex week, however.

  Jane Fox   4/14/200,  8:49:46 AM
The CPI, the most widely used gauge of U.S. inflation, rose 0.5 percent in March after a 0.3 percent increase in February. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, surged 0.4 percent, the biggest increase in nearly 2 1/2 years. The rise was due to an unexpectedly sharply increase in energy costs. Apparel and lodging costs jumped also. This report is suggesting long-dormant inflation may be rearing its head.

  Linda Piazza   4/14/200,  7:05:15 AM
Good morning. With INTC's earnings disappointing the markets, tech weakness caused the Nikkei to gap lower Wednesday morning. By midday, some techs rebounded and banks were higher, twice inching the Nikkei above the flat-line level. Those efforts finished off an intraday H&S formation, however, and the Nikkei never again attained positive values. It closed down 29.64 points or 0.24%, at 12,098.18. Banks closed higher, techs mostly traded lower, and autos were mixed. Investors bought domestic issues such as the stock of Takashimaya, a department store operator saying that it will post strong profits after a loss last year, and Nippon Steel, after that company announced that it will raise prices.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. Samsung Electronics helped lead Asian semi-related stocks lower in early trading, but closed down only 0.2%. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.26%. With legislative elections tomorrow, South Korea's Kospi eased 0.14%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 1.36%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell a heftier 2.78%. Perhaps helping was China Telecom's plunge after that company announced that it would buy 10 telecom networks in China. Those are currently owned by China Telecom's parent company. However, commentators on CNBC World attributed the Hang Seng's plunge to currency issues, noting that its currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and that rate hikes in Hong Kong go pretty much step-in-step with hikes in the U.S., too, leading some to expect rate hikes in Hong Kong soon as expectations rise that the U.S. will hike rates sooner rather than later. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.05%.

Most European bourses currently trade lower with tech weakness being blamed for the declines. Even the FTSE 100, not characterized as tech or export heavy, heads lower. In London, declines in mining stocks and some retailers, such as Marks & Spencer, are blamed for the poor performance, while metals join techs in leading the declines in Europe. Marks & Spencer reported earnings that disappointed, with their food sales being particularly disappointing according to CNBC World commentators this morning. Nokia lost ground after a German magazine warned that the company was losing market share in Germany. Bucking the negative trend were French dairy and food group Danone, adding 3% earlier this morning after its earnings report, and French consumer group Thomson, climbing more modestly after reporting its first quarter sales.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has lost 53.90 points or 1.19%, to trade at 4461.90. The CAC 40 has lost 52.39 points or 1.39%, to trade at 3722.30. The DAX has declined 71.08 points or 1.75%, to trade at 4000.34.

  Jeff Bailey   4/13/200,  9:43:19 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   4/13/200,  8:06:45 PM
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