Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  6:26:46 PM
ELAB announced a 2:1 split

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  6:15:18 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

After hours trackers had DIA $103.88, SPY $112.71 and QQQ $35.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  5:05:28 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  4:40:45 PM
IBM conference call - IBM saying analyst estimates for the full year are "reasonable". Is that good or bad? Considering the current climate it is probably bad since it is seen as inline.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  4:02:13 PM
Earnings After the Close:

IBM est = +0.93, actual = +0.93 cautious comments
NCF est = +0.44, actual = +0.44
SYK est = +0.63, actual = +0.66
AEIS est = +0.18, actual = +0.21
ASPT est = +0.14, actual = +0.17
AVID est = +0.37, actual = +0.44
CDWC est = +0.59, actual = +0.63
CREE est = +0.18, actual = +0.20 raised guidance
DCLK est = +0.05, actual = +0.05
DIGI est = +0.08, actual = n/a
KOPN est = -0.01, actual = -0.05
LEXR est = +0.12, actual = +0.11 see note
MOLX est = +0.22, actual = +0.24 raised guidance
NFLX est = -0.03, actual = -0.03
PLXT est = +0.01, actual = +0.02
PMCS est = +0.04, actual = +0.06
SCUR est = +0.06, actual = +0.06 guided inline
SEBL est = +0.05, actual = +0.06
SUNW est = -0.07, actual = -0.08
TMTA est = -0.11, actual = -0.11
VASC est = -0.14, actual = -0.11
WERN est = +0.18, actual = n/a

LEXR raised revenue guidance but lowered earnings guidance
LEXR warns "second quarter price declines will be sizeable."

MCDT warning for the quarter.

Earnings Friday Morning

ET est = +0.20
NOK est = +0.22
GWW est = +0.58

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:59:35 PM
I never got quotes today for the supposed IPO for today, IMMC, so couldn't follow it according to Jeff's 5MRT system.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:57:12 PM
The SOX is showing a possible inverse H&S with an ascending neckline on its 5-minute chart. I'm not sure it has time to confirm before the close, but one version of the neckline now crosses at about 491.30.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  3:55:11 PM
I will be posting earnings in the monitor immediately after the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:54:36 PM
Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC) $17.42 +0.69% ... going to suggest day trade bulls, if comfortable, hold this one overnight.

The main test for bulls tomorrow morning will be for the stock to make way above the $17.55 level in my opinion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:50:05 PM
Jim's 15:37 post reminded those trading SPX options that those options cease trading today and settle tomorrow morning at the open (when all stocks in the SPX have opened). Even for those trading OEX options, which settle tomorrow at the close, remember that tendency to pin the indices and stocks to certain levels on Thursday or at least by mid-morning Friday and hold them there throughout the rest of the day on Friday. That's not always possible, even for mighty market makers, but that's the tendency many opex cycles. If you're holding OTM options now, make a reasoned decision about whether you want to hold overnight. The markets might gap your direction tomorrow morning and everything might be great, but they might not, and any time value in those options is going to rapidly evaporate.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  3:43:45 PM
Bill is already a millionare. He built from scratch and sold www.cigarsaroundtheworld.com Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:38:15 PM
Sorry, James, I missed your post about Apprentice. My MM hadn't updated (not OptionInvestor's fault but that of another ISP that keeps the MM from updating every time I get an email!) so I missed that post when it originally appeared. Now I've had the luxury of reading some of the other replies before I answer. I agree with Jim's assessment that Kwame should have fired Omarosa, but I don't think I agree about how driven he might be. I don't think a kind or calm way of dealing with others necessarily means a person isn't driven. I think the two can exist side by side, and it's just how one person deals with competitiveness that makes one seem kind and another cut-throat. With that said, although I like Kwame better, I think I'd choose Bill.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:34:06 PM
Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) $17.41 +0.63% .... here's intra-day chart with 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:32:40 PM
Buy Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  3:32:39 PM
Jim, you made me wait for it, but that was the anticipated response :)

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  3:31:15 PM
Jonathan, does that mean I need to start praising you in print more often? (grin)

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:29:42 PM
The breakdown under the $70 level and the bearish MACD makes IVGN look like a short candidate, at least toward the $65.00 level, but the company reports earnings on April 22nd.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:27:55 PM
Do you ever change the way you look at charts? Every now and then I like to look at line charts. Sometimes it's easier to see formations on them than on the bar or candlestick charts. Here's a confirmed-and-upside-target-met recent inverse H&S on the SOX daily chart, with that target met on April 5 before the SOX charged down again: Link It's at or dipping slightly below that neckline now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:25:44 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:22:23 PM
ASH might be a bearish play if it breaks support at $45.00 and its 100-dma but keep an eye on its April 26th earnings report.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:18:34 PM
I'd keep BCR on the watch list for a breakout over the $100 level but I'd wait until after its April 20th earnings report before making any decisions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  3:17:41 PM
Jim, I've always subscribed to the Dilbert method of firing- praise the underperformer most loudly so as to encourage a competitor to steal him/her away.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  3:15:41 PM
Bill is the better business candidate, Kwame has professional education but little real world experience. Kwame is too nice where Bill is a wheeler dealer. I would hire Bill. If Trump wants a yes man he should hire Kwame. If he wants somebody that is driven to succeed and will take the risks you need to take then he should hire Bill. It is not about who is the best man but who Trump wants to work with. All the people in his organization appear to be afraid of Trump and he keeps them in line with intimidation. Kwame would fit that mold and be the safe choice. Bill could cause sparks. We will see if Trump is substance or flash based on his decision tonight.

Personally I think Kwame blew it by not firing Omarosa last week when he caught her in a blatant lie. He showed weakness, again, by failing to confront the issue. Remember, Trumps told them TWICE when they chose the teams, "You are the boss, these are your employees." I think he was warning them that it was a real world test and Kwame will not be able to use the excuse I have seen him use twice already, "I would not have hired here and I can't fire her." Bull! It is your butt on the line. If you can't fire her then take away her duties and tell her to go work on her book. You will call her when you need her.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:15:36 PM
Solectron (SLR) also looks weak with a nice short-term trend of lower highs and a bearish MACD. It appears headed toward its March lows near $5.15.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:14:03 PM
ZION might be a bearish candidate with the breakdown under support at $55.00 today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  3:13:58 PM
In my 14:30 post, as the OEX was just beginning to climb off the 548.44 low of the day, I questioned whether the OEX could be forming a triple bottom on the 15-minute chart. Since then, the OEX has broken above the descending trendline off today's high, a first sign of minor strength, and has broken minimally above the mid-channel Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart, a second sign of short-term strength. All day, the OEX has been overrunning that mid-channel Keltner resistance, however, only to get caught in its gravitational pull and tugged back down again. It still faces Keltner resistance at about 552.59, too, and that's where it could be caught. Above that is upper-channel resistance, currently at 555.39, with a move up to that level fulfilling the thought I had early today that there might be an effort to drive the OEX up to test the max-pain level. Actually, I think gains will slow or the OEX might even be bounced back when it begins hitting the grouped 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, now at 553.68-554.19.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:13:23 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  3:10:38 PM
Azriel! Thanks, James- now I can think straight again.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:10:05 PM
wasn't is something like Azrael? (the cat's name)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  3:09:35 PM
While we're on it, does anyone recall the name of Gargamel's cat?

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:08:59 PM
to be honest, Jon, I don't watch either show. *grin*

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:08:21 PM
The smurf! ... SSCC $17.39 +0.52% .... back to RED #1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  3:07:48 PM
James, they should throw the current gang from Teen Idol in there and see how Trump gets along with the gang- now that would be interesting TV.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:06:17 PM
It's between Bill and Kwame.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/15/200,  3:05:34 PM
James I don't want to admit I watch the Apprentice but I did last night. I think Bill, is that his name?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:02:00 PM
Seeing some bid come into the paper/forest stocks ... GP +3.15% on the move, IP $41.73 -0.4%, WY $66.31 -0.31%

I sure miss the Forest/Paper Index (FPP.X)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  3:01:33 PM
Day trade long alert ... Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) $17.30 here, stop $17.19, target $17.70.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:01:24 PM
If you're a technical trader then this is your entry point on Jefferson Pilot Corp (JP). The stock has bounced consistently from its simple 50-dma for the last 12 months and it has pulled back to this technical support once again. (FYI: earnings are April 27th)

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  3:00:14 PM
okay, so I just watched that bit on CNBC about who's going to win the Apprentice tonight. From the MarketMonitor team... who do you think is going to win?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  2:50:20 PM
NASDAQ Comp. (COMPQ) 1,998.00 -1.32% ... just came back to kiss the 2,000 level.

QQQ $36.21 -1.6% off its afternoon/session low of $36.02. (Just after MNST traded that intra-day spike low of $27.79)

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:49:24 PM
Ingersoll Rand Ltd (IR) looks like a decent bullish candidate. The stock has managed to maintain its gains above the $70 level despite weakness in the markets. However, bulls should probably consider a trigger over the $72.25-72.50 level and wait for earnings on April 20th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  2:48:58 PM
The OEX is now challenging the descending trendline off this morning's high. It hasn't quite reached the five-minute mid-channel Keltner resistance, now at 551.70, but would have to get safely past that trendline before I would consider that triple bottom on the 15-minute chart to be feasible. In addition to the bullish price/MACD divergence I mentioned earlier as the second and third of those short-term bottoms were put in, I note that there was bullish divergence on the Keltner charts. On the second test of the 549 level, the OEX breached the Keltner bands. On the third touch, it did not, bouncing from above the lower-channel support. I've been thinking that it might be possible that the OEX would reached toward (but perhaps not to?) the max-pain level at 555.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  2:42:37 PM
Day trade close out alert for Monster Worldwide (MNST) $28.07 here.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:42:02 PM
Golden West Financial (GDW) looks very oversold down from $117 in early March to $99.96 today. The sell-off has really accelerated in the last few days as investors rotate out of financials. Volume has been big the last three sessions. The $100 level might hold as psychological support but if it doesn't GDW has its 200-dma near $98. Look for GDW earnings on 4/20.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:34:09 PM
Keep an eye on ADI. The stock has been channeling between $44-45 and $50-52 for more than four months. Currently the stock is headed lower (-3.85% to $47.31) but should find support near $45 and its 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:31:15 PM
Guidant Corp (GDT) looks like a bearish candidate for a run back toward the $60.00 level. Its recent breakdown under the $65 mark and its 50-dma don't bode well with a MACD about to produce a new sell signal. Yet watch out for earnings on April 22nd.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  2:30:57 PM
Triple bottom in the OEX? It's possible, although I'm not making any promises, of course. Although technically the OEX has reached new fifteen-minute lows on each spike lower, candle bodies are forming at about the same place with only the shadows spiking lower, at least on the last two dips. Tentative bullish price/MACD divergence forms here, continuing the bullish divergence seen on the last 15-minute dip. Of course, we have to see what happens, and all bets are off if an OEX fifteen-minute candle body forms below 548.80 or so.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:27:30 PM
General Motors (GM) is looking weak here too. After failing at its 50-dma for several days last week the stock is now challenging support near $45.00. Its MACD is rolling over into a new sell signal as well but GM still has technical support at its 200-dma near $44.50. Look for earnings on April 20th.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:18:36 PM
quick observation... Merrill Lynch (MER) is breaking down below its simple 200-dma. The stock should still have support near the $55 level.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:15:48 PM
ConocoPhillips (COP) has been able to maintain its recent breakout over resistance in the $70-71 range. The stock could remain strong ahead of its April 28th earnings report. P&F chart readers will note that its $70 price target has been met.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:12:13 PM
IBM is barely moving (-34 cents) ahead of its earnings report tonight. However, traders should can note that the stock is still suffering from resistance at its declining 40-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  2:11:59 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:10:51 PM
If it wasn't for AMGN's April 22nd earnings report the stock would look like a bullish candidate. Shares have been building a base at the $58 mark for the last few weeks. Now the stock is breaking its trend of lower highs and breaking out above the $60.00 mark (and its 21 & 30-dma's).

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:07:20 PM
CSCO looks pretty weak here, down 3.82%, but it is approaching support at $22.00 and its 200-dma. Its MACD is in new sell signal.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:05:17 PM
The sell-off in the broker-dealers continues. MWD has really been suffering. On Tuesday it broke support at $55. On Wednesday it broke support at its 200-dma. Now the stock is trading down another 1.9% and at its lows for the session. The next stop could be the $50 mark.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  2:04:18 PM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $27.90 -2.24% ... just off session low of $27.79. Here's 5-MRT updated. Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  2:03:40 PM
Freshly anointed Dow component Pfizer (PFE) is up 3.9% and breaking out over price resistance and its 50-dma after some positive comments from a Deutsche Bank analyst who called the stock the "best play" in the drug group. Volume is pretty heavy on today's rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  2:00:16 PM
I was just preparing a post to note that the right-shoulder portion of the OEX's potential inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart was looking a bit long in the tooth when the OEX began dropping. Both the left and right shoulders had looked like miniature inverse H&S's, with the left-shoulder one failing to confirm and with the right-shoulder one having a descending neckline. That right-shoulder inverse H&S has been negated by the current drop, and if the OEX gets much lower, the larger inverse H&S will be negated, too.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  1:59:43 PM
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) continues its decline. The stock broke through significant support on Tuesday and is now breaking support at its 200-dma today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:58:36 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,994.50 -1.48% ... starging to lose the 2,000.00 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:57:37 PM
International Paper (IP) $41.29 -1.45% ... breaks to session low and gives up the apex of that little intra-day pennant "P" pattern from yesterday.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  1:40:24 PM
Sector Update...

Winners:
DRG drug index: +3.44%
OSX oil services: +2.14%
XNG natural gas: +1.99%
XAU gold & silver: +0.95%
OIX oil index: +0.94%
RLX retail index: +0.94%

Losers:
HOM healthcare: -4.29%
SOX semiconductors: -3.12%
DDX disk drives: -3.26%
NWX networking: -1.99%
XAL airlines: -1.71%
GSO software: -1.59%
INX Internets: -1.48%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:25:53 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  1:19:44 PM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Bernanke
What Policymakers Can Learn from Asset Prices Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:14:33 PM
Ciscos Systems (CSCO) $22.50 -3.26% ... lows of the session and sharp break today below 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA. 200-day SMA in play at $22.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:13:15 PM
U.S. Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:08:37 PM
Abatrix (ABIX) $14.60 +174.95% ... Whats so hype about the new flyer ? ABIX.... ???

Looked at it this morning. Signed a deal with Goodwin Group LLC for exclusivity to market RapidCool (TM), which is a burn cream.

Here's a link to the story. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  1:04:11 PM
Here's how the OEX is doing with respect to the 72-ema I've been watching for a while. This thing sure still looks significant to me: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  1:02:53 PM
Express Scripts (ESRX) $75.94 -0.53% Link ... questions as to "what's up" and is there news?

No news I can find and support should be firm at $73. Still some room to the current bullish vertical count of $93.

Might be a little weak due to NASDAQ-100 association, but that's about all I can come up with.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  1:00:07 PM
NAHB Housing Market Index = 69 (last 64)

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  12:56:28 PM
Earnings After the Close:

IBM est = +0.93,
NCF est = +0.44,
SYK est = +0.63,
AEIS est = +0.18,
ASPT est = +0.14,
AVID est = +0.37,
CDWC est = +0.59,
CREE est = +0.18,
DCLK est = +0.05,
KOPN est = -0.01,
MOLX est = +0.22,
NFLX est = -0.03,
PLXT est = +0.01,
PMCS est = +0.04,
SCUR est = +0.06,
SEBL est = +0.05,
SUNW est = -0.07,
TMTA est = -0.11,

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  12:55:29 PM
Yesterday, I mentioned that the TRAN, the Dow Jones Transportation Index, was one index that had taken its time to pull back and possibly form the right shoulder of an inverse H&S on its daily chart. There had been bullish divergence as the possible head was developed. Other indices never got as far as a right-shoulder formation, shooting up past what would have constituted their necklines if the patterns had finished forming. I had said that if the two shoulders were symmetrical, it would probably require at least several days if not longer to form that right shoulder. At the time, some conflicting and less bullish evidence existed. While the TRAN was testing the key 2900 level, the daily MACD was flattening, in danger of producing a bearish cross from above signal. Today, the TRAN is just about in the same position, still holding above 2900 but within the range that could be considered testing this level, MACD histogram levels sloping down, prices still possibly steadying in a right-shoulder formation. We have to wait it out and see, but since the TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, I thought it might be important to watch to determine whether the TRAN might be more likely to confirm that bullish formation or to head lower and negate it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:46:03 PM
Swing trade close out alert ... International Paper (IP) $41.55 -0.83% .... going to close out for small gain here. Dont like the way IP holding support at that little "P" from yesterday.

May regret this decision, but will error on side of caution at this point. Daily interval bar chart sure looks weak. Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:40:34 PM
Shares of EMC Corp (EMC) aren't doing much (-13 cents) after reporting a strong earnings number this morning. Granted the company only beat estimates by a penny (or only met estimates if you include a 1 cent charge) but revenues soared more than 35% to $1.87 billion, which was above analysts' expectations. The 6 cent earnings number is significant improvement from last year's 2 cent net income. The company offered stronger revenue guidance for the second quarter. From their press release: "The first quarter marked EMC's highest revenue growth rate in nearly three years."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:34:53 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2000.00 -1.21% ...

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:34:09 PM
I know a lot of traders out there also happen to enjoy poker. There is news out this morning that the World Poker Tour Enterprises has filed plans to launch an IPO.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:33:57 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  12:33:52 PM
While the inverse H&S on the OEX 15-minute chart is still possible, the OEX needs to steady or turn around quickly for it to remain so.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:28:24 PM
Investors are not happy with Cypress Semiconductor's (CY) earnings this morning. The company beat estimates by a penny but the stock is in free-fall down 7% and breaking down through support at $20.00, $19.00 and its 200-dma. Its MACD has rolled over into a new sell signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  12:27:47 PM
Reader Comment concerning 11:31 post on TASR: Last week TASR opened at 79.08 and closed at 99.80 for a weekly gain of just over 26%. In light of this, I think the better award to discuss would be the "stupid commentator/analyst/writer of the week award" and I think we should present that award to Mr. Jaffe. The last time I checked, an investment or trade that returns 26% in one week is usually considered a winner. Similarly, any analyst/commentator/writer that calls such an opportunity "stupid" should be considered a loser.

Response: Good point, and I imagine many are pocketing big profits, shaking their heads over my caution about TASR. However, I'm writing on the options side of the MM, and I'm writing out of concern for our readers, many of whom I have reason to suspect may have invested in now OTM April calls. I'd rather readers avoid losing money than risk too much on a momentum stock such as TASR, especially those readers who might not have experienced the swift downturns in early 2000, and who might not understand how quickly that money can evaporate. My trading partner lost $250,000 in a single opex cycle on OTM calls and it's my goal to prevent that kind of thing from happening to anyone else. If my cautions encouraged some to take profits in those OTM April 100 calls that were netting over $6.00 last week and now are at .45 x .70 as I type, then my time here is worth it.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:24:11 PM
Cooper Tire Rubber (CTB) is up 7.75% to $22.10 on big volume after raising its Q1 earnings forecast from 24-to-28 cents to 30-to-34 cents a share (excluding $4 million in restructuring). From their press release: "The result is due to much higher sales for the Company as well as the strong operating performance of Cooper-Standard Automotive which was due to higher customer production, new business won last year and a smaller than anticipated impact from increasing steel prices and other raw material costs during the quarter."

CTB will announce earnings on April 22nd.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:18:46 PM
Sell Prog. Prem .... has SPX back below MONTHLY Pivot. Could be a flush coming. Reason I think this is way the es04m found selling back at the 1,132 level overning and early this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:18:18 PM
PPG Industries (PPG) is up $2.00 (3.36%) to $61.42 after its strong earnings report this morning. Consensus estimates were 58 cents and PPG reported a headline number of 71 cents. Management also raised the quarterly cash dividend to 45 cents, payable in June. They also plans to buy back $100 million in stock by year end. Today's rally is a breakout over resistance at the $61.00 level and has produced a new bullish breakout on its P&F chart (current P&F target is $77).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:13:05 PM
Teradyn (TER) $23.20 -6.87% .... getting crushed at RED #11.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:10:53 PM
I just heard Bob Pisani on CNBC talking about chips and AMD. Advance Micro Devices (AMD) reported its earnings last night and blew away the numbers. Analysts were looking for 3 cents and AMD reported 12 cents per share. Unfortunately, the guidance for the current quarter was flat. That news has the stock down 7.12% to $15.89, which has created a new sell signal on its MACD indicator.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:10:08 PM
Sell prog. premium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:09:12 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 551.69 -0.03% .... here's the 50 most heavily weighted components and current trade at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  12:09:10 PM
The Philly Fed number came in at 32.5 and well above the 26.1 consensus and the 24.2 level from last months. The market reacted strongly but the news was quickly sold.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:06:29 PM
Shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) are up 8.14% to $28.83 and above resistance in the $28.00-28.50 region after its super strong earnings report last night. Analysts had been looking for 10 cents and AAPL reported 14 cents (excluding a $7 million restructuring charge). The company also guided higher for the current quarter.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  12:01:49 PM
We have another exit alert for OI call play PDCO. The stock is now trading within our suggested profit target range of $77.50-80.00. Currently up 1.12% to $77.88. Considering the strength in the stock traders might want to just cinch up their stop losses and let it ride. We'll do the same in tonight's newsletter and see if PDCO can hit $80.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  12:00:36 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,387 +0.08% ... snapshot of components with note of how strong the 3 drug components are and hold Dow tough. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  12:00:18 PM
Another reason to manage risk if in long TASR plays? Link Managing risks can mean anything from offsetting a long position with a cheap (if that exist with TASR) OTM put, raising stops, collecting profit on partial or total positions, and a myriad of others.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  11:59:20 AM
Shares of EBAY, an OI call play, are up nearly 1% and bucking the trend in tech stocks and the INX Internet index (-1.11%). We've only got a few more trading days left before EBAY's April 21st earnings report.

 
 
  James Brown   4/15/200,  11:57:03 AM
Exit alert on our OI put play CFC. The stock's early morning weakness (about 10:30 ET) hit our exit point at $54.65 and traded to $54.40 before slowly climbing back above the $55 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  11:47:14 AM
The OEX may still be forming a right shoulder of a possible inverse H&S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  11:31:42 AM
Reader Question: When is TASR scheduled to split?

Response: Good question. The declaration was April 5, the date of record is today (for those holding the stock today), and it's payable April 29, at least according to the information I was able to find. In the original announcement, I didn't find a mention of a specific date. In an article naming the "Stupid Investment of the Week" for last week, Marketwatch writer Chuck Jaffe mentions TASR splitting "at the end of this month." By the way, need I say more about TASR after that award?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  11:20:07 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  11:12:30 AM
Here's the possible inverse H&S developing on the OEX 15-minute chart, complete with bullish divergence as the head was formed: Link Seeing the possibility for a bullish formation doesn't promise it will confirm and then fulfill the upside target, but it does allow bearish traders to assess risk and determine possible exit points. Bulls want to see the OEX firm up near the current level or at least above 550 while bears want to see the opposite, negating the potential formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  11:08:39 AM
U.S. market watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  11:07:18 AM
Yesterday, I couldn't find values for the day's IPO, CRT or Corcept Therapeutics. It apparently did not begin trading until about 3:00 yesterday. This morning, I followed the first five-minute range 12.25 to 12.15, and am following it (on paper, not by trading it) according to Jeff's 5MRT system. According to that system, CORT would have triggered a bearish trade early today. That trade would have been stopped out by a penny before CORT dropped down again, although perhaps in actual practice, we would have set our stops a few pennies above those Fib levels to give a stock a bit of room to overshoot a particular level. So far, whether stopped or not, the trade would be losing money, but if stopped, the loss would have been only $0.20-0.21, depending on slippage, and currently, the loss is only $0.10. It wouldn't have been a huge loss. This is one benefit of using this system, in that it gives traders a measurable, objective, cut-and-dried, no-decision-to-be-made way to get in and out. That's a difficult task to accomplish with an IPO. Today might see the introduction of another IPO, IMMC, and if so, I'll also be following and reporting on what happens. Remember this is for evidence-gathering only, as I don't yet know whether the trades are successful enough using this system to suggest them to readers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:59:50 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $28.17 -1.4% .... right at RED #2.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:55:56 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $73.20 +1.65% ... just traded $73.32. Here's intra-day with 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  10:53:09 AM
Reader Question: What happens to option contracts when a stock splits? I was thinking of holding a few TASR options over the split and wondered what would happen to them...will they split also and then double in number?

Response: Great question, and it's one that I thought might interest other readers. First, however, I can't help cautioning about the dangers of holding over a split, akin to the dangers of holding over an earning's announcement or any other such event that might prompt a sell-the-event reaction. TASR is a stock that behaves in crazy ways and one that I watch from afar without ever being tempted to participate in plays. Lots of people have made lots of money on TASR, but you can guarantee that lots have lost money, too.

Now, on to the specifics of a stock split and how that effects already held options. My source for this information is . . . well, my own experience, but the expert portion of this advice comes from McMillan's Options as a Strategic Investment, a book I urge everyone to add to their libraries. Here's a quote: "When the undelrying stock splits or pays a stock dividend, the terms of its options are adjusted. Such an adjustment may result in fractional striking prices and in options for other than 100 shares per contract. . . . The actual details of splits, stock dividends, and rights offerings, along with their effects on the option terms, are always published by the option exchange that trades those options. . . . In actual price, the option strategist should ascertain from the broker the specific terms of the new options series. . . ." In addition, here's a link to the CBOE site in which a writer asks your same question: Link The conclusion is the same as yours and is in accordance with my own experience, that the option strike price is divided in two and the number of options is doubled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:47:02 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $73.02 +1.4% ... bullish trader that can take down some size might look for a $1 gap fill back higher from here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:45:47 AM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 96.08 -1.12% ... just below yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:42:02 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $28.34 -0.8% ... quick look at 10-minute interval chart (allows for 3-days trade observation), where I've placed the lower 5-MRT on the bar chart we used with fitted retracement from a couple of weeks ago. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  10:39:56 AM
Obviously, the resistance at the OEX 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's has held, pointing out the danger of going long on a bounce attempt in this kind of trading environment. There's a possibility of an inverse H&S developing on the five-minute chart, so entering a bearish trade may be nearly as risky.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:37:44 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 331.96 -0.54% .... testing yesterday's lows here.

Drags SPX 1,126.60 -0.13% to session low, but still of yesterday's lows of 1,122.15.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  10:33:03 AM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey came in at 3.6% and it appears the prior month was revised down from +10.6% to only +0.9%. The job opening component rose to 2811 from 2700. Still trying to wade through it to see what really happened.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  10:18:10 AM
Earnings Thursday Morning:

C est = +0.95, actual = +1.01
NE est = +0.20, actual = +0.21
CY est = +0.18, actual = +0.19
CAL est = -1.43, actual = -1.36
EMC est = +0.06, actual = +0.07
GTK est = +0.67, actual = +0.72
PEP est = +0.46, actual = +0.46
LUV est = +0.05, actual = +0.04
DHI est = +0.71, actual = +0.80
UNH est = +0.87, actual = +0.88
CHIC est = -0.01, actual = -0.01
DECK est = +0.46, actual = +0.49
EMMS est = -0.08, actual = -0.10
FITB est = +0.75, actual = +0.75
GENZ est = +0.37, actual = +0.37
LSTR est = +0.23, actual = +0.42
MRCY est = +0.29, actual = +0.29
TRAD est = +0.07, actual = +0.08

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  10:18:01 AM
Mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart is holding. Now it remains to be seen if mid-channel resistance on the fifteen-minute chart holds, too, with that resistance joined by the significant 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, all grouped between 553.90 and 555.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:17:05 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 497.47 -1.12% ... AMD -4.61%, TER -2.41%, NSM -2.08%, XLNX -2.07% .... STM $22.91 +0.04%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  10:09:14 AM
As my posts all morning have been suggesting, I would agree with Keene's "choppy" comments and Jonathan's "blender" comments about the market today, with those comments on the Futures side of the Monitor. Be careful. The OEX may get its feet under it and labor higher to work off some of the short-term oversold conditions, but it's guesswork knowing how long a counter-trend climb might continue and even whether a climb might continue long enough that we stop calling it a counter-trend climb.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  10:06:22 AM
Still no word on the Labor Turnover Survey due out at 10:Am

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:06:20 AM
Day trade short alert ... Monster Worldwide (MNST) $28.37 here, stop $28.75, target $27.35.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  10:06:18 AM
So far, the OEX is finding support at mid-channel Keltner support, now at 552.62, but within a broader zone. It found resistance, however, at mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, also near the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's. I don't think the battle is over just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:04:03 AM
Commercial Federal (CFB) $24.79 -0.52% ....

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 334.18 +0.11% ... fractional gains

KBW Banks (BKX.X) 96.99 -0.18% .... with Citigroup (C) $50.38 -1.09%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  10:00:20 AM
Georgia Pacific (GP) $34.89 +1.81% .... stock made a round-trip yesterday starting out at $34.20, traded a high of $35.19, to close right back down near $34.20.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  9:58:35 AM
Two min until the Labor Turnover Survey (last 10.6%)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:58:30 AM
International Paper (IP) $42.12 +0.52% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:56:08 AM
We're not seeing any retracement during the time when we usually see the first retracement of the day. The OEX is above mid-channel Keltner resistance, but perhaps not completely free of the gravitational pull of mid-channel resistance. If the OEX can manage to hold onto mid-channel S/R, it could charge right up toward upper-channel resistance, currently at 556.13, but now rising. When the OEX remains oversold on a Keltner basis as long as it did, it often charges past mid-channel resistance, but there's never a guarantee that it will or a promise about when it will. To me, Keltners help me measure risk and point out short-term support and resistance levels, as well as indicate breakouts, and are invaluable in their abilities to do this, but they don't do everything.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  9:55:36 AM
A 7.25B overnight repo replaces 3.25B expiring for a net add of 4B in short term intervention money.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:54:56 AM
U.S. Market Watch (09:53 AM) at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:50:35 AM
The OEX is now testing those averages I mentioned in my 9:42 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:44:21 AM
Actives/Gainers/Losers at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:42:35 AM
The 120-minute 100/130-pma's lie at 553.996 and 554.296, respectively. The 60-minute versions lie at 554.06 and 553.90, respectively. These lend their weight to the resistance implied by the 553.69 peak between yesterday's two troughs. I wouldn't feel great about the potential for further climbs until the OEX is above these levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:40:43 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 551.63 to 553.03. It has bumped just above mid-channel Keltner resistance, but hasn't really tugged free of the resistance zone just yet. It appears that it's about to do so as I type, perhaps heading up to/over the 553.69 level that is the confirmation level for the double-bottom formation. Be careful about assumptions about direction as these tests occur during early morning volatility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:39:23 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 334.39 +0.17% ... steady in early going.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) currently down 1.1 basis points at 4.371%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/15/200,  9:38:30 AM
I held quite a large number of SNDK Apr. 30 calls purchased at avg. $ 1.04 when the stock was about $29. I had been watching this stock for some weeks and saw an entry point from which I expected a push over resistance at $30-$30.41, which duly happened and the stock broke out to about $33. I was aware of earnings after the close on Wednesday I was looking for an exit before then and as the stock faltered on Monday and Tuesday I got out for a good profit. on Wednesday when it had pulled back to $31.5 and rallied again before the report. Premarket today it is about $27.50 now after the report. all the gains would have gone and losses would have been incurred to the full position as the $30 calls will be virtually zero. We have always been TOLD not to hold over earnings. This is a perfect example for your readers as to why. Thank you! Regards John

Your welcome. Trust me, the lesson was learned the hard way many years ago. The number of times a post earnings spike makes holding over worth the risk is far outweighed by the number of times the trade goes badly. You never know what little detail will sour the earnings for traders. Inline guidance when traders are hoping for more. Failure to hit the whisper number. Charges, margin shrinkage, etc. Be safe and close positions the day before. This is especially true with current month options. Once the news is out the expectations rapidly deflate current month options.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:35:55 AM
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) $64.51 -3.58% Link ... Reported Q1 (March) EPS of $0.88, which was a penny better than forecast on revenues that rose 16.8% year-over-year. UNH said it sees fiscal 2004 EPS of $3.75-$3.78, which would be at the high range of consensus estimates of $3.75.

Fulcrum cuts to "neutral" from "buy" based on valuation, saying upward guidance wasn't enough to maintain its buy rating given P/E of 18, which is at the high-end of average range.

PnF notes have UNH getting close to its bullish vertical count of $70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/15/200,  9:25:28 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:20:57 AM
Something else to keep on the radar screen today: Fed President Moskow will speak at 9:30 at the Immigration Conference and Fed Governor Bernanke will speak at 1:15 on asset prices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  9:02:07 AM
As I mentioned late yesterday afternoon, the OEX ended the day having produced a near-doji springing up from below the 21- and 100-dma's. That type of candle can be a potential reversal signal, but it would have to be confirmed by today's performance. For those who want to see a bounce, the preferable action today would be an open above yesterday's open and a move up all day. The performance of Asian and European markets overnight question whether the OEX and other indices will be able to climb all day, with Asian markets and particularly the Nikkei plummeting while European markets try to find their direction.

Keltner charts have shown the OEX to have been oversold on a short-term basis since shortly after noon on Tuesday. They longer it's oversold on a Keltner basis, the more likely it is that it will bounce up to touch mid-channel resistance, currently at 552.48 but descending, or upper-channel resistance, currently at 555.85 but descending. However, since Keltner's also give valid breakout signals, there's no promise of when such a bounce might begin. As yesterday ended, the OEX was climbing toward the 553.69 level that would represent the confirmation level of a double-bottom formation. Although the OEX actually made a slightly lower bottom, that lower bottom was by such a slight amount and achieved on a candle shadow thrust lower, so I think we can consider it a possible double-bottom trying to form. Before the OEX can hit the confirmation level, however, it will first hit mid-channel resistance. Any climb also works against the possible sell signal currently being created on the 21(3)3 stochastics, with those having completed a bearish kiss and almost completed a roll down below their signal line. Daily RSI turned down several days ago. MACD is on the verge of making a bearish cross at signal, a time that I find it tricky to predict what might happen next, because an MACD on the verge of a cross or a move below signal is also often a MACD on the verge of turning around.

Complicating all those factors is the acknowledgment that this is the Thursday of opex week, a time at which there begins an effort to move the indices to max pain levels. According to Jim's MM post yesterday, max pain for the OEX is 555, so a bounce up to mid- or upper-channel Keltner resistance would make sense from a max-pain consideration. As I said yesterday just before the expected morning bounce appeared, I would consider any such bounce now to be a countertrend one. It may or may not be profitable for those participating, but anyone considering going long on any bounce attempt should have nimble fingers to say the least, and a readiness to exit the trade as soon as evidence appears that it's not working any longer. Futures are mixed as I type, as were the performances of the various overseas markets, with Asian bourses suffering while European ones currently try to steady.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  8:32:02 AM
Empire State Index 36.1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  8:31:04 AM
8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 6,750 TO 344,250

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/15/200,  8:30:52 AM
8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 22,000 TO 2.98M

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 30,000 TO 360,000

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/15/200,  7:10:20 AM
Good morning. With the dollar jumping against the yen as Japanese markets opened, the export-heavy Nikkei climbed in earliest trading on Thursday, but then recoiled as it approached 12,200 and went into a freefall. That freefall took it more than 320 points below the day's high and 236 points in the red by the close of the morning's session, but it wasn't through falling even then. Early in the afternoon, it eventually tumbled more than 400 points below the day's high, but then steadied through the afternoon, several times bouncing from the low of the day, but bouncing in lower highs each time. According to one report, the Japanese bourses had been seeing individuals amass record levels of margined positions, and the decline triggered those to sell their positions on a day that saw record volume levels. Triggered program selling as the Nikkei dropped below 12,000 again also contributed to that record volume, the same article mentioned. The Nikkei closed down 297.78 points or 2.46%, at 11,800.40, in the process of making one of those lower-high peaks. The dollar fell back from the morning's high against the yen.

Early in the trading day, Merrill Lynch released a monthly survey that revealed that global money managers want Japanese shares because they view their growth prospects as the best worldwide, with that survey perhaps boosting sentiment near the open. Also early in the day, Fitch Ratings raised credit outlooks on several banks, including Mizuho, mentioning the banks' better positions with regard to bad loans. By the end of the day, however, Mizuho had dropped 4.4%. At least some autos fell, along with computer makers and some other techs, and many retailers.

Most other Asian bourses declined, too, with tech stocks declining across Asia. The Taiwan Weighted fell 2.08%. South Korea's Kospi was closed due to the general election being held today. Although the government in Singapore revealed that February's retail sales climbed 22.9% month-over-month, Singapore's Straits Times fell 1.35%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.50%. With China's National Bureau of Statistics announcing that the country's Q1 GDP grew 9.7%, fears about China's overheating economy were raised, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.07%.

Although Osama bin Laden's truce offered to European countries was the subject of CNBC Europe reports overnight, some market watchers judge that the offer has had little impact on European bourses this morning, with many of those bourses trading near flat-line levels this morning. News out of Iraq shows competing good and bad news, with French journalists being released by their captors while an Italian hostage was killed, and several other foreign nationals were kidnapped. Various sectors or story stocks compete for attention, some higher and some lower. Chip stocks generally trade lower while automakers generally trade higher. Passenger car registrations for Western Europe climbed 6.9%, although the article reporting that climb did not mention whether that rise was month-over-month or year-over-year. Italian sales dropped 8%, working against the higher figures reported for British and German sales. In specific stock news, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines revised its profit forecast for the year just ended March 31, saying the final quarter of that fiscal year had been stronger than expected. The stock was rising in early European trading. Royal Ahold also gained in early trading as it announced further restructuring plans.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades higher by 11.60 points or 0.26%, at 4497.00. The CAC 40 trades higher by 8.58 points or 0.23%, at 3740.01. The DAX eases lower by 1.51 points or 0.04%, to 4011.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  10:07:34 PM
e-mini S&P futures (es04m) ... settled at 1,129.75. Here's a 10-minute delayed intra-day 10-minute interval chart with extended hours underway. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:48:50 PM
NYSE and NASDAQ breadth indicators at this Link

In tonight's Index Trader Wrap, we touch on the NYSE NH/NL breadth of 34:219.

Today's action does have the NYSE NH/NL 10-day Avg. reversing back lower into column of "O." On April 7, the NYSE NH/NL 5-day Avg. crossed back below its NH/NL 10-day average.

On 04/13/04, the NASDAQ NH/NL 5-day Avg. crossed back below its 10-day average. NASDAQ's NH/NL 10-day Avg. still in a column of "X" and would take a reading of 86% to reverse back into "O".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/14/200,  9:34:48 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Don't forget that income taxes are due tomorrow midnight! I promised myself last year that I wouldn't wait until the last minute to do mine, so I'm getting an early start right now!

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/14/200,  8:44:20 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives