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  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  5:54:38 PM
Weekly MM Trades profiled at this Link

The NEM-DI was a covered call written against a swing trade long in NEM. I did not show the NEM trade (without covered call) being stopped at $44.00, as I profiled later with the covered call on 04/08/04. Additional note is that the 78.5% gain was not used in sum of columns, but was used for 1,000 share (10 contracts) and $10,000 per trade (2 contracts) columns.

The MACE (1/2) positions were derived as the trade progressed, where based on the more speculative nature of this stock, where video security stocks were hot, decided to sell 1/2 positions early in attempt to get some gain under a trader's belt. Trade size of 1,000 share would have 1/2 at 500 each. Trade size of $10,000 would have 1/2 at $5,000 each.

The SSCC day trade was recorded as closed for those that do go flat overnight.

The SSCC swing trade was derived by my suggesting that day traders willing to take overnight risk, hold the trade overnight. However, I must use this swing trade entry as the 04/15/04 close ($17.42), as to not skew gian/loss or % columns.

My trade profiles should now be flat, and no open orders for buy/sell at this time.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  5:38:31 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  5:01:02 PM
Good grief! Sorry all you TASR bulls. I'm not sure what is/was going on with my e-mail today, but suddenly, I find a bunch of questions from during the session just coming into my inbox.

Some of you out there are OUT OF YOUR MIND in my opinion!!!! Stuff the most aggressive of hedge funds would shy away from. (grin) Be VERY CAREFUL with what I see some of you saying you're doing.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  4:36:57 PM
Plug Power (PLUG) $9.65 +14.88% .... here daily interval bar chart with both a 38.2% fitted retracement, and retracement anchored at the low, with other end attached at bullish vertical count of $14.50. Link

Have we seen this before? I'm thinking MNST on 03/26/04, or 03/31/04. Link

September $10 calls (PQLIB) $1.35 x $1.40.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  4:24:57 PM
Ooooeeee! wait until you see PLUG chart with some retracement work.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  4:05:27 PM
Plug Power (PLUG) $9.65 +14.88% Link .... pretty good volume right near the close. I'll do some work with retracement on this one, as it might be a good play next week.

PLUG trades with options too! May $10 calls (PQLEB) traded 947 with OI of 450.

Hmmmm.... here's an unconventional $0.25 box of PLUG. See that "bearish triangle" pattern over at the left? Plug is right back at the apex of that triangle. Wonder who is buying the $10 calls? Link

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  4:04:45 PM
Have a great weekend, everyone. It's a beautiful day today here in Dallas, and I wish all of you such beautiful weather wherever you are.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  3:57:03 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $73.00 +0.31% ... just looking at an intra-day chart of FRX. Look how volatile it was today.

I see a lot of pairing of $70 put and $75 call action today.

Can never be sure, but I'm certainly hopeful that its "sell the puts" and "buy the calls".

Today's "Max Pain" expiration was $70.00. Won't be surprised with a $72.50 close.

FRX reports earnings Tuesday morning, and I personally am looking forward to hearing what they have to say, with bullish optimism.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  3:52:16 PM
We've had some mixed signals today on the OEX, but that's not unusual for an opex Friday. Some of those mixed signals include a five-minute chart showing a bearish rising wedge, but the OEX refusing to fall far after breaking out of that bearish rising wedge. That's actually behavior that was typical of the bullishness present during the spring and early summer of 2003, although we're talking about a five-minute chart here and not a daily chart. Opposing that was a well-formed inverse H&S on the one-minute chart, with that formation confirming with a breakaway gap above the neckline, only to have the formation fall apart and the OEX retreat below the head level. Those are conflicting bits of evidence. Or are they? Take a look at a five-minute chart, and you can see that the little one-minute inverse H&S could actually be the left shoulder of a new and larger five-minute H&S, with the head just now forming as the OEX rounds back toward the neckline level. On the daily chart, the OEX declines within a descending regression channel, but that channel could actually be a bull flag formation. These conflicting bits of evidence are going to have to sort themselves out early next week.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:49:29 PM
F5 Networks (FFIV) appears to be in a wide declining channel. Traders could evaluate bearish play on a breakdown below its 100-dma and the $30.00 mark and target the bottom of the channel near its 200-dma at $25.00. Watch (and probably wait) for earnings on April 21st.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:47:10 PM
Sina Corp (SINA), the Chinese internet play, is breaking down under its 200-dma and close to breaking its March lows near $35.25. Aggressive traders could target a move toward $30.00 but be aware that earnings are 4/27.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:43:25 PM
We've had our eye on SYMC for a while now as we wait for the right pull back. The dip to the $45 level might be an entry point but looks for signs of a bounce first. Earnings should be April 28th.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  3:41:15 PM
Bulls flags typically retrace no more than 50% of the flagpole rise that immediately preceded their formation before they break to the upside. Could the current OEX formation on the daily chart still be a bull flag? It could, according to this Fib retracement bracket: Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  3:30:20 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:24:08 PM
Keep an eye on Unilever (UN). The stock is bouncing from support at its rising 100-dma. A trigger over resistance at the $70.00 mark (which also includes its 40-dma, 50-dma) might work for a bullish trade targeting $75.00. Expect shares to gap open every morning as UN is an ADR.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  3:21:51 PM
With about 40 minutes until the close, the OEX hovers near its max-pain level of 555. I've been speculating for the last couple of days that with the important 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's so close to that max-pain level, it made sense on several levels that the OEX might be maneuvering toward a closing value near that max-pain level. Somebody deserves some applause for perhaps parking this thing so near the target. We still have that 40 minutes to go, though.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:17:35 PM
Ultratech Inc (UTEK) might be a tempting short candidate if it breaks support at $20.00 but watch out for earnings on April 21st.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:12:17 PM
Beckman Coulter (BEC) is bucking the trend in tech stocks and breaking out over resistance at $55.00.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:10:45 PM
Quick observation... Corning Inc (GLW) has pulled back to its simple 200-dma again while its MACD has produced a new sell signal. Will support hold? Earnings are this Thursday (4/22).

  James Brown   4/16/200,  3:08:33 PM
We're going to be raising the stop loss on OI call play PDCO again to protect as large a chunk of its gains as we can. Shares are up another 1.15% to $78.71.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  3:02:44 PM
IPO IMMC still trades within the first five-minute range. We haven't had an opportunity to watch how it would have traded if it had triggered a play according to Jeff's 5MRT system. Standard technical analysis would have suggested a play as it broke down out of the symmetrical triangle it had formed beginning its second five minutes of trading, but the downside suggested would have been just about $0.30 or perhaps slightly more. Curiously, it did meet that downside target, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle at about $9.39, and then trading as low as $9.05, but one would have had to have set a profit target and then exited immediately to have benefited since it immediately rose again almost to the breakout level. It now trades at $9.27.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  3:01:56 PM
Linear Tech (LLTC) $38.31 -1% ... 60-minute chart and follow up to morning comments (10:25:47). Link

Daily interval bar chart for perspective. Link Sure didn't like the retest of 200-day SMA

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  2:56:10 PM
That fairly well-formed inverse H&S on the OEX one-minute chart just fell apart, didn't it? There had even been a breakaway gap when the OEX broke above the neckline, and those are seldom filled right away. Here's a chart: Link It's bearish to see an upside target not be filled, but we knew this wasn't a sign of strength, didn't we?

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:54:26 PM
QQQ $36.09 -0.13% .... either side of its WEEKLY S2 since 11:00.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:48:08 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $114.50 $*&#%@

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:44:02 PM
Plug Power (PLUG) $9.56 +13.8% ... intra-day chart at this Link

Here's the daily interval bar chart to give some perspective Link

  James Brown   4/16/200,  2:39:52 PM
ICOS appears to be a bearish candidate. The stock is underperforming its peers, which are all in rally mode. The volume has been rising on the recent declines for ICOS and the stock has broken support at $37.00. Traders could use a trigger under $35.00. The bearish triangle breakdown on its P&F chart is very negative.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:36:23 PM
Plug Power (PLUG) $9.53 +13.45% ... eyeing a long on this one into the close. get your 5-MRTS stacked.

Monitoring this pullback after session high of $9.70, thinking $9.80 by the close, where intra-day support might come at $9.32.

  Jim Brown   4/16/200,  2:31:52 PM
Latest comment from Omarosa: "I do have my eyes set on running for Congress and eventually the White House. I sat in the White House and watched leaders make decisions. I’m thinking, if they can do it, so can I."

ABC said this morning that she was fired four times by the Clinton White House but kept turning back up in a new job.

It was also announced today that Kristi was previously a soft porn actress with her most notable roll on Red Shoe Diaries.

Truth really is stranger than fiction.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  2:31:47 PM
Copper futures are soaring 4.19% to $1.3425 a pound. The metal has fought with resistance at $1.40/lb. for the last six weeks.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  2:29:33 PM
I haven't done any digging on it but LEXG, a biotech/drug firm, might interest the more aggressive-speculative crowd. Earnings are due on April 29th. Chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:27:37 PM
Taser (TASR) ... updated 5-minute chart. Link

Sure looks like it wants to trade the $112.70 level doesn't it?

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  2:25:31 PM
The OEX just completed an inverse H&S on its one-minute chart, although it appears to be turning down again just below the neckline, perhaps to form a second right shoulder or perhaps as the formation fails. The upside target would be about 556.10 and would bring the OEX up to retest the broken support from the bearish rising wedge.

  Jane Fox   4/16/200,  2:16:19 PM
There goes Jeff making us all hungry again.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:16:03 PM
Per Jonathan's 13:32:17 ... Interesting factoid on Gold $375.

Haven't heard much from the dollar bear's on Treasury policy of "strong dollar" or Fed thoughts that jobs would improve as economy improved. Not recently anyway

Perhaps its the more "liberal press" that tends to report on criticism of Fed and Treasury than any positives?

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  2:10:46 PM
Taser (TASR) $111.00 +10.92% ... good gravy!

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  2:09:43 PM
The OEX did give a (long) breakout signal on the (20,2) Donchian channels on the 30-minute chart, with a 30-minute close at 554.83 on the 11:30 candle. At the time that signal was given, the 21(3)3 stochastics were approaching their signal line, but not yet trending in overbought levels, making the signal somewhat iffy. That long play would still be open as I type by all three of the exit types I'm watching. That includes a Parabolic SAR-based exit. The PSAR gave a long signal, too, at 554.28. The breakout over the gathered 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's occurred on a move above 554.17, but if I'd been basing a long play on a move above these averages, I probably would have given it a little leeway, perhaps up to a move the 4/15 morning high of 554.67. Several methods gave breakout or long signals between 554.28 and 554.83, then, which you would think would enhance the case for going long. However, we have that break of a bearish rising wedge (although nothing much is happening yet as a result) and it's an opex Friday, so anything can happen from here until the close.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  2:04:42 PM
Avid Technologies (AVID) is up 10.8% to $50.36 and breaking out over its 200-dma and resistance at the $50.00 mark after strong earnings last night. Analysts were looking for 36 cents and AVID reported 44 cents. The next level of overhead resistance is the $55 mark.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  1:58:45 PM
There is no confidence from investors in Nuance Communications (NUAN)'s upcoming earnings this Monday. The stock is breaking down through support at $5.50 on stronger than average volume after a steady trend of lower highs.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:58:24 PM
Taser Intl (TASR ... $110.36 ... isn't done yet.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:56:08 PM
Is the OEX actually dropping out of a bearish rising wedge? Perhaps. However, now it's got those 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's just beneath the current level.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  1:50:33 PM
looking for a little extra money?

The IRS has paid more than $65.1 million in rewards to informants since the late 1960s. - Lightbulb press

  James Brown   4/16/200,  1:48:15 PM
...something I read yesterday...

"The taxpayer - that's someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service exam."

- Ronald Reagan

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:45:32 PM
The OEX broke down out of the widest and longest-term of the bearish rising wedges I've been watching. It appears to be doing that sideways-trading thing rather than breaking down and falling, however. I'm not surprised, but be watchful.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  1:42:07 PM
First Data Corp (FDC) looks pretty bullish here breaking out over its March highs near $44.00 but the stock has long-term resistance at $45.00. Shares could see a pre-earnings run up ahead of its announcement on Thursday, April 22nd.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:38:59 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  1:32:17 PM
Jeff, since McTeer's promise that the fed would prevent gold from breaking 375 last year in that Forbes interview, there's been a resounding silence on that topic. The Lizard King wrote about gold back in 1966 or so, as I recall, telling the world that gold was the citizens' insurance against wealth confiscation via inflation. Still trying to resolve that particular piece of cognitive dissonance, I am.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:27:49 PM
Jonathan... did the "Lizard King" say anything about gold hovering near $400?

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:25:52 PM
The OEX fell out of the steepest of the bearish rising wedges I'd drawn and this time it did drop. However, it's only dropped to the support level of the lowest and longest-term of the bearish rising wedges drawn on the chart linked to my 13:09 post. It's testing that as I type, ready to either fall through it or bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:25:44 PM
TASR edged back to $108.38, now back at $109.11.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:24:50 PM
Dan Niles discussing the 1994 Fed rate hike. We covered this a couple of months ago in an Index Trader Wrap, but he's talking about the selling that comes on first realization of Fed tightening, but as economic growth continues, stocks come out of their funk.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:22:18 PM
TASR .... OK... thinking an intra-day bid should be firm, maybe another shot at a long on pullback to the $107 level.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:20:21 PM
Day trade stop alert ... TASR $108.90

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:18:43 PM
Thanks Linda .... to tell the truth, yesterday, about mid session I was thinking it might be time for some puts, but wanted to see how it closed.

Should have been quicker this morning, but gap higher certainly spelled another squeeze coming.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  1:12:50 PM
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is up 17% to $18.75 and breaking out over resistance at $18.00 on big volume. Its bullish P&F chart points to a $28 price target.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:11:22 PM
Congratulations, Jeff, for the great TASR play. I'm sure readers appreciated having someone willing to jump in today on a TASR play.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:10:57 PM
TASR $109.87 ... BLUE #9.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  1:09:17 PM
TASR 109.40 ... session high was 109.80.

That's close enough for this day trader to now raise bullish stop alert to $108.90 sell limit $108.50.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:09:16 PM
I figured out what I did wrong on the bearish rising wedge on the OEX five-minute chart. I didn't start the support line far enough back. I'd started it at this morning's first dip, but I should really have anchored the support line off the 4/14 low. Here's the new wedge, one that might not break down today, with my original line from earlier still left on the chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  1:05:55 PM
IPO IMMC still trades within its first five-minute range, still within the neutral zone as defined by Jeff's 5MRT system. No bullish or bearish (paper trade) entries have been triggered.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:59:24 PM
That formation on the OEX five-minute chart still looks like a bearish rising wedge, even if I'd now have to widen the wedge to account for the last hours' sideways jaunt outside the first and narrower wedge. That doesn't mean the OEX is doomed to fall, but it still looks like that kind of a formation to me.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:58:46 PM
12:55 PM Market Watch at this Link

Dollar Index bidding off lows of 89.58 (WEEKLY R1 is 89.67), while DAILY S2 89.65 has $HUI.X looking just inverse.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:55:26 PM
Just a matter of interest: On the 3-minute chart, the $TRIN displays a H&S formation. I don't know whether the TRIN is amenable to technical analysis, but this is a well-formed formation with a supposed neckline level at 1.40. I just thought it might be interesting to watch. We've had some discussions about whether it's valid to study the volatility indices using TA tools.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:52:44 PM
TASR 109.39 ... updated 2-minute chart at this Link

Observation of "back tick"

Several traders with some call options from this morning, so trying to keep you updated. However, trade your levels.

I've got to get 01:00 Update done.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:44:42 PM
IMMC has begun trading, with the first five-minute range from 8.50 to 9.50, and with the stock currently within that first five-minute range. It's settled into a neutral triangle at the top of its range. It opened at 8.53, and closed that first five-minute period at 9.15.

Remember that if you're following these posts on this IPO, that I'm still following it for educational purposes, watching trades unfold according to Jeff's 5MRT, and seeing if this tool would help daytraders determine viable trades on IPO's.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:43:30 PM
TASR $109.11 (blue #8) ... Day trade raise bullish stop alert to $106.50.

Noting... there was a "bad tick" right at $109.82, which is BLUE #9.

If we see trade at $109.82, I'm going to get aggressive with raising stop just under $109.11, just in case there's a program being set up for big sell at that higher level.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:39:46 PM
In reference to Jeff's comments about TASR, I guess all those people who had those OTM April calls on TASR aren't feeling so bad about the values after all, as long as those calls were 105's or lower. That's why I'm as leery of bearish calls on TASR as I am of bullish ones.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:37:40 PM
TASR $107.96 +8% ... back higher at BLUE #7. "squeeeeez"

123,000 shares that last 2-minutes....

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:36:39 PM
So far, the OEX is doing its bullish-mode thing with respect to the bearish rising wedge. Here's how that works. The OEX breaks down out of the bearish rising wedge, but then trades sideways rather than falling precipitously, as it's supposed to do when it violates the support. Then it rises along the underside of the broken support. That's a lesson we all learned throughout the last 13 months: a new truism of technical analysis.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:35:59 PM
Taser (TASR) here's 2-minute chart intervals. Link

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:26:52 PM
As I'm studying the OEX five-minute chart, I note that the climb has begun to take on the form of a bearish rising wedge: Link Careful, bulls. Not all of these bearish formations fulfill their promise, but just be careful.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:23:51 PM
The OEX has now reached the Keltner level that often turns it down, so it's probably time for a pullback. As I type, it's at closest Keltner support, with further support between 554.63 and 555.04.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:20:17 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $107.12 +7% .... day traders. do this. Toggle your char with 21, 50 and 200 pd SMA from the 5-minute intervals to 2-minute intervals. See the moving average correlation?

Thinking.... for some momentum to continue, needs to stay above $106.50.

For those without intra-day charts, the 2-minute interval chart shows its 50-pd SMA equvalent to the 5-minute chart's 21-pd SMA.

All coming to a point at BLUE #6 right now.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  12:14:20 PM
Lexar Media (LEXR) is another one of the BIG losers today. The stock is currently down 30% to $10.80. The company announced earnings last night and missed estimates by a penny while guiding lower with a very negative outlook for memory prices in the second quarter.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:13:49 PM
The OEX 558 upside target looks more possible now that the OEX has driven above 555 resistance. Still be careful, however, as trading patterns can be unpredictable on opex Friday.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  12:05:35 PM
Another INX component EarthLink (ELNK) is down 3.1% and breaking support at its 200-dma while producing a new sell signal on its MACD.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  12:04:43 PM
TASR $106.08 +6.16% ... updated 5-MRT. Link (notes)

Today's "pattern" as it relates to levels of trade is once TASR traded a higher level it NEVER traded two levels lower.

So.... after trade at $107.96, it "shouldn't" trade $105.65. Bullish day trader stop placed just under $105.65, just in case it does!

  James Brown   4/16/200,  12:04:24 PM
DoubleClick Inc's (DCLK) 25.7% decline to $8.87 is to blame for the big drop in the INX Internet index. DCLK is sinking after last night's earnings report. The earnings were inline but DCLK missed the revenue number estimates. Plus DCLK guided lower for the next quarter and the year. Smith Barney cut the stock to a "sell" this morning.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  12:04:20 PM
Here's how the OEX has been doing with regard to that inverse H&S on its 10-minute chart: Link The upside target is near 558. The need for momentum is particularly important as this is opex Friday and as the OEX now hovers near its max-pain level.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  12:00:35 PM
Delta Airlines (DAL) has been a big loser the last two weeks and the down trend has gotten steeper after its miserable earnings report this week. Today's 5.7% drop to $6.58 is quickly approaching its October 2002 lows.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  11:58:05 AM
Sector update...

(Biggest) Winner:
XBD broker-dealers: +1.69%
BIX banking index: +1.27%
BKX banking index: +1.06%
XAU gold & silver: +1.04%

Noteworthy: copper futures: +3.22%

INX Internet index: -3.15%
DDX disk drives: -2.47%
GHA hardware: -1.21%
SOX semiconductors: -1.46%
XAL airlines: -1.29%

  James Brown   4/16/200,  11:51:49 AM
Netflix Inc (NFLX) is getting taken to the woodshed today with a 17% drop to $30.78 after reporting disappointing earnings last night. The company reported a new loss of 11 cents a share or $5.8 million versus a loss of $2.4 million a year ago. Impacting performance were rising costs as NFLX spent $35.12 to acquire each new customer compared to $31.67 a year ago (-Reuters). NFLX also said they would raise their basic subscription from $19.95 a month to $21.99 a month on June 15th. Revenues for the quarter rose more than 80% to $100.4 million, which was above estimates.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  11:51:38 AM
Upper Keltner channel resistance lies at 556.03 on the five-minute OEX chart.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  11:42:34 AM
The new OI call play in WFMI has been triggered on today's bullish breakout over its simple 40-dma and our trigger at $76.50. Its MACD has just produced a new buy signal.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  11:41:06 AM
OI call play PDCO continues to inch higher and is now above the $78 level. Remember, we're suggesting traders consider taking profits in the $77.50-80.00 range but our new official exit will be 79.95.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  11:41:01 AM
Although the OEX broke above the Donchian channels during the previous 30-minute period, it closed back inside them, again pointing out the importance of waiting for a close before you consider the Donchian channels to have given a breakout signal. There's been no breakout signal on that basis as of yet, although this 30-minute period could give such a signal. There has been a break above the neckline of an inverse H&S formation and above the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, but those breakouts are tentative as of yet, with some danger that the OEX could fall back below these averages. A Donchian channel breakout signal would be a nice (needed?) confirmation for bulls, as things are still looking a bit iffy on further upside potential.

  James Brown   4/16/200,  11:39:25 AM
OI put play QLGC continues to slip lower and has broken support at the $30.00 level with today's 2.42% decline.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  11:29:55 AM
I'm still not getting prices for IMMC, today's IPO, so I'm not sure that it's begun trading yet although it should have opened by now according to the information I received this morning.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  11:28:58 AM
That last spike moved the OEX above the neckline of the inverse H&S as seen on its 10-minute chart, setting up an upside target of above 558. However, the OEX is heading immediately back down to retest that neckline, so we now need to see if the 553.75-554 level holds as support. Those levels are also near the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, with the OEX now having climbed above those MA's.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  11:22:54 AM
QQQ $36.23 +0.24% .... might look for bullish entry on pullback to $36.00.

seeing some bid come in to the semis.

Only thing about QQQ today is might have some option-related pressure at $36.00.

As one reader e-mailed me this morning... the components look like a covery of 100 quail scattering in all sorts of directions, making QQQ a tough trade right now.

CPWR +4%, BIIB +3.26%, MOLX +3%, SSCC +2.4% .... SUNW -3.4%, AMAT -3.6%, SNDK -4.51%, ALTR -5.3%.

QQQ Heatmap Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  11:20:39 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  11:10:12 AM
Taser (TASR) $106.80 back to BLUE #6.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  11:09:58 AM
On a Donchian channel basis, an upside break would occur on a 30-minute close above 554.67 during this 30-minute period. Remember to always use closing values when watching for a Donchian channel breakout, as candles sometimes pierce these channels but seldom close outside them. As I've mentioned before, even if you use the Donchian channels for no other reason, they're great for pointing out historical support or resistance over a specified number of intervals. Over the last twenty 30-minute intervals, the high has been 554.67, and one glance at the Donchian channel lines will tell you that if you've set them up for a 20-interval period. Here's what I mean: Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  11:07:14 AM
Taser (TASR) $107.96 (BLUE #7) ... day trade raise stop alert to $105.50.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  11:01:25 AM
TASR $106.80 ... BLUE #6 here.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:59:26 AM
Day trade long alert .... TASR $106.50 here, stop $104.00, target $111.00.

  Jim Brown   4/16/200,  10:58:42 AM
IPO IMMC about to open for trading

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:57:57 AM
Taser (TASR) $105.89 +5.85% ... intra-day with stacked 5-MRT just in case. Link

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:53:13 AM
Over the last 20 minutes, the OEX has tested and then turned down from one version of the inverse H&S on its 10-minute chart. It hasn't fallen far, though, so the test might not be completed. This also constitutes a test of the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:51:08 AM
The TRAN continues to maintain levels just above 2900 as it perhaps forms the right shoulder of an inverse H&S formation. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip down to the 2860-2870 level, either, as that possible right shoulder continues to form. Daily oscillators show weakness to be more likely than strength, and symmetry issues suggest that the right-shoulder formation might require a number of days or even weeks to complete if the formation is indeed valid. A move much below 2835-2850 would likely invalidate the formation.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:36:47 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $104.14 +4.2% .... session high. Looked at "Max Pain," but its lower at $90. Thought it might me higher and might have TASR on the move.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:35:53 AM
No sooner did I make that last post than I found out that IMMC, Immunicon Corp., is scheduled to begin trading at about 10:45, so in a few moments' time.

Remember that we're still in an evidence-gathering mode when following these IPO's using Jeff's 5MRT system. I've followed four or five over the last few weeks, but that's not enough to give us a firm feeling for whether we feel comfortable using this method for following IPO's. I hope we find that it works well, as we have few other tools for using to analyze these trades.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:34:49 AM
It looks as if IPO IMMC may begin trading today, although I don't have information about when that might be. If it does, we'll watch, using Jeff's 5MRT.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:32:59 AM
On many opex Friday's, the markets would have another hour or so of movement before they get pinned to certain numbers. When that happens, those OTM options start deflating in price before your very eyes. Be careful.

As of this moment, it doesn't look as if the markets are going to steady, at least on a micro-level. The 5- and 10-minute charts show a possible inverse H&S forming on the OEX, as the OEX moves up to challenge the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's and mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute Keltner charts. This looks like the OEX trying to break out, with it being possible that a failure to break out could result in the bears gaining strength and driving it lower. Let's see. These chart characteristics work against what we know about typical opex Friday's.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:26:41 AM
The Smurf! $17.75 +1.89% ... OK, looking for more papers/forest products.

GP +1.35%, WY +1.14%, IP +0.69% is always lagging up and leading down.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:25:47 AM
Linear Tech (LLTC) $38.05 -1.67% ... looking for a short here. Placed a retracement from $35.21-$40.11 (similar to SOX.X chart this morning), and see this morning's low came right at 50% of $37.66 and bouncing back to 38.2% of $38.24. I'll place some 5-MRTs on in a minute.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  10:16:56 AM
SSCC if that's one of our traders on the SSCC offer of $15.56 you got some fill on the bounce back.

Trick.... Sometimes when I'm trading some size 5,000 shares or more of a stock like SSCC, and I've hit the bid at $17.56, only get partial fill, stock falls to $17.50, then comes back and my remaining order outsized the bid, I'll cancel my order, try and make it look like I'm gone, let the stock try and rebound back above $17.60, let some bids build below, then place a market order again, with limt $17.56, or $17.50 and be done with it.

SSCC trading well within the 5-MRT, found buyers above BLUE #1 of $17.50.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  10:11:37 AM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX ten-minute chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  9:59:44 AM
The OEX is now at central Keltner channel support on the five-minute chart. Over the last few days, that level has often served as support, while the central channel level on the 15-minute chart has served as resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:58:43 AM
Swing trade exit alert for SSCC here at $17.56 bid.

Looked like a seller at $17.60 on Level II

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:54:43 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 6.2 basis points at 4.34%

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:54:03 AM
Drug Index (DRG.X) 338.40 -0.2% ....

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:53:36 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 335.21 +0.71% ...

  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  9:51:42 AM
A 4.75B 6-day repo has just been announced- that's a big drain of 9.2B so far, but still room for an overnight to be added later.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  9:51:02 AM
In addition to constituting a test of the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, this morning's OEX climb also tested mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. This looks like a downturn beginning from that test, but as I mentioned earlier this morning, the 60-minute chart has been signaling bullish divergence, so counting on the recent 549-553 range holding might be dangerous. Doesn't look so at this moment, but then anything can and does happen on an opex Friday, so I urge caution about any trades entered.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:50:55 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert for SSCC to $17.47 (just under today's BLUE #1)

With major indices mixed to lower in here, will treat like day trade.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  9:50:37 AM
13.95B in fed repos expires today- the 10AM release is due shortly.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  9:47:42 AM
I mentioned in my first post today that the DAX was on the verge of completing a H&S on its intraday chart, but the DAX rejected that neckline confirmation and shot up instead, as often happens when a bearish formation is rejected. Well, shot up might not be the right phrase, but it did climb sharply for a few minutes. It's now at 4029.71, up 25.10 points or 0.63%.

  Jim Brown   4/16/200,  9:47:05 AM
Michigan Sentiment = 93.2 ,(est 97.8, last 95.8)

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:46:12 AM
Smurfit (SSCC) $17.61 +1.09% .... traded BLUE #2 of $17.65. Opening 5-minutes was from $17.35-$17.50.

Note, I also have had a conventional retracement on SSCC from $16.27 to $18.97, which has 50% right in here at $17.62, with 38.2% lower at $17.30.

It was this $17.30 level I thought an action point yesterday on the move higher. Tied in well with the 5-MRT yesterday.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  9:44:53 AM
During the first five minutes of the trading day, the OEX ranged from 552.28 to 553.47, with that rise testing the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:42:41 AM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert ... for Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) to $17.30. Continue to target yesterday's (day trade held overnight) $17.70.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:37:48 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $103.50 +3.47% .... "hot" out of the gate.

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:37:10 AM
Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) $17.59 +0.97% ...

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:35:25 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) .... 60-minute chart with retracement from the March 22-23 low to recent highs. Link

  Jim Brown   4/16/200,  9:27:58 AM
FR Board: Speech by Governor Bernanke
Financial Access for Immigrants: The Case of Remittances Link

  Jim Brown   4/16/200,  9:27:23 AM
FR Board: Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Chairman Greenspan on capitalizing reputation Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/16/200,  9:19:11 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  9:17:02 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  9:11:07 AM
Awaiting industrial production and capacity utilization in 5 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  8:50:30 AM
During this month, many indices rose to test broken support from earlier in the year, then fell back. The OEX is no exception. Early in April it rose to test 563 resistance, falling back after a couple of days of testing that level. Now it may be trying to steady, establishing a support level near historical support at 552 and near the 72-ema I've been watching, currently at 551.85. For two days in a row, the daily candles have been doji or near-doji with long shadows, with those candles indicative of indecision. The OEX is trying to find its direction, unable as yet either to climb or decline. Over the last couple of weeks, I've been speculating that the OEX might be rattling around in a range roughly from 549 to 563, trying to establish support and resistance levels that it failed to establish during its late November to late January climb. If this range fails, perhaps a wider range, maybe down to 542 or so on the downside or 569-570 on the upside, might be needed to map out those support and resistance levels. A fall below 541-542 might suggest a retest of the March low, while a climb above 569-570 might suggest a retest of the year's high.

Daily 21(3)3 stochastics have now been tugged fully below signal, voting on the bearish side. RSI generally slopes down although the last two days have produced an upward hook within the context of a descending path, and MACD flattens at the signal line. As I mentioned, the OEX has been hugging that 72-ema I've been watching for the last two days, the candle bodies forming along that MA while the candle shadows spike on either side of it: Link

Something needs to happen soon, but I'm wondering whether it will today, on opex Friday. The nested Keltner channels I like to watch on a five-minute OEX chart don't give a clue, either, as they were settling into an equilibrium position at the close of trading yesterday, with OEX values just above the mid-channel support. What needs to happen for an upside breakout? First, the OEX needs to break above the 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's, now grouped closely from 553.64 to 554.17. Because there was a spike up to 554.67 on 4/15, there's a chance that another break above those averages will be a fake-out move, too, but that break occurred in the first hour of trading on 4/15, with that being during the infamous amateur hour. What about a downside break? That's more difficult, because of the series of slightly lower lows we've been seeing on the 60-minute chart since 4/13. Strongest support appears near 549.50, but anyone who has entered a bearish play on a spike below that level over the last week has seen that play stopped out. It would be nice, instead, to be able to play the range, entering a bearish play on a rollover near those grouped 60- and 120-minute 100/130-pma's and then buying support once it's hit again, but the trouble is that 60-minute indicators have been signaling bullish divergence over the last few days, suggesting that it's possible that the OEX won't roll beneath resistance this time.

In truth, if you're inclined to jump into a play today, do so only if you've previously traded opex Friday's and understand the risks you're taking. Consider limiting the size of your positions. In the past, when I felt I just couldn't pass up an opex Friday play, that's the tactic I've taken, fully aware that what I'm doing is more akin to gambling than trading because of market behavior on opex Friday's. With event risk over the weekend, the spotty reaction to earnings results, and with the 60-minute oscillators working against the daily ones on this opex Friday, trading could be choppy.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  8:31:28 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   4/16/200,  7:58:30 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of housing starts, est. 1900K and building permits, est. 1910K, then at 9:15 industrial production, est. .3% and capacity utilization, est. 76.8%, then at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment, est. 97.

  Linda Piazza   4/16/200,  7:09:54 AM
Good morning. After yesterday's big loss and after Japanese citizens held hostage in Iraq were released, the Nikkei zoomed around a lot in the morning session, trying to decide on a direction. It opened near the flat-line level, soon dived more than 100 points, but then zoomed up to recoup those same 100 points. It was difficult to research sector performance in the early trading because of the big moves each direction. By the time information about the morning's activities appeared, that information might have been outdated. During the afternoon session, however, the Nikkei steadied in a range between the flat-line level and the day's high, 64 points above that flat-line level. The Nikkei closed up 24.16 points or 0.20%, at 11,824.56.

Autos had performed well at least at one point in mid-morning, and they closed higher, too. Banking stocks closed lower. Performance in techs and mobile phone stocks was spotty. Fujitsu and NEC declined while Canon, Sharp, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI gained.

Other Asian bourses mostly closed higher, with South Korea being a notable exception. In South Korea, elections results gave the government's party a majority over the opposition's, but some market watchers credit Samsung rather than the elections with the Kospi's downturn. Samsung reported quarterly profit that almost tripled in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg article. The company noted strong demand for memory chips and flat-panel displays and said chip shortages would probably last all the way through the current quarter, if not beyond. Samsung is likely taking market share away from Nokia, another article stated. Global shipments rose 52% and profit margin rose above 20%, but some expect a slowdown in the second half of the year as economic growth cools across the globe, and Samsung fell 1.9% as investors took profit in this strong performer. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.21%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.52%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was another declining bourse, losing 0.17%, but China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.88%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher. Nokia announced results this morning that disappointed but rumors had held that the company would likely disappoint. Some headline facts include Q1 mobile operating margin that fell to 25.6% from the previous 29%; Q1 mobile net sales that fell 15% and 2% on the year; an expectation that Q2 sales will be flat or perhaps even slightly lower than year-ago levels; and a Q2 EPS forecast that was lower than expected although the Q1 figure was in line. Although rumors had swirled that Nokia would disappoint, no buy-the-fact reaction occurred in early trade as share prices had fallen as this report was prepared.

Today seems to be a day for story stocks in Europe and the U.K., with stocks gaining or losing according to their stories. European steel group Arcelor makes plans to boost treasury stock, with investors liking the news well enough to send the stock slightly higher, while engineering group Alstom gains more vigorously as a newspaper speculated on concessions the French Finance Minister might offer the struggling company. Lehman Brothers upgraded shares of German tire manufacturer Continental from an equal-weight rating to an overweight one, sending the shares sharply higher. However, it was tobacco group Altadis and cosmetics company L'Oreal that led early gainers in Europe.

In the U.K., steel group Corus Group fended off a bid by 13.4% shareholder Usmanov, a Russian steel magnate, to hold a position on Corus' board. Usamov signaled his intention to keep buying shares through a Cyprus holding company, along with his intention not to take a hostile stance toward the company's management. The company's successful efforts to keep him off the board sent the shares higher, helping the London bourses to move higher. One article notes that defensive shares also help the London bourses to gain.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 19.00 points or 0.42%, to trade at 4524.50. The CAC 40 has gained 19.95 points or 0.54%, to trade at 3742.71. The DAX has gained 15.52 points or 0.39%, to trade at 4020.13, trying to build onto that safety net above 4000. As I type, however, the intraday chart shows a possibility of a H&S developing. If confirmed, the downside target would send the DAX below 4000 again.

  OI Technical Staff   4/15/200,  8:48:42 PM
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