Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  6:45:50 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.00 +1.33% ... MONTHLY R2

June Gold futures (gc04m) 393.90 -1.10% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  5:57:34 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  4:49:10 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.89 +1.21% ... dollar continues to climb. Approaching MONTHLY R2 (90.97) here.

June Gold futures (gc04m) $395.50 -0.70% ... down $2.80 early.

I'm 30-minute delayed quotes on futures.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  4:43:04 PM
TASR bears are celebrating tonight! TASR -34.44 at $84.77. Sure hope all those longs had stops in place.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  4:40:09 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  4:28:04 PM
QQQ $35.68 -2.32% ... trading $35.83 in extended hours

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  4:10:30 PM
All you want of BGO in after-hours at $2.85.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  4:02:31 PM
Earnings After the Close:

RX est = +0.24, actual = +0.26
ACS est = +0.68, actual = +0.72
ALL est = +1.41, actual = +1.44 ($1.34 headline)
CTX est = +1.74, actual = +1.75
MOT est = +0.07, actual = +0.07 (+0.25 ex items)
STX est = +0.07, actual = +0.07 rev light
STK est = +0.21, actual = +0.21
SCH est = +0.12, actual = +0.12
TER est = +0.15, actual = n/a
AMCC est = -0.01, actual = +0.01
ASKJ est = +0.18, actual = +0.23 guiding lower
BCGI est = +0.20, actual = +0.22
CHRW est = +0.34, actual = +0.34
CECO est = +0.32, actual = +0.40
CKFR est = +0.27, actual = +0.29
CAKE est = +0.32, actual = +0.32
CGNX est = +0.16, actual = +0.18
CYMI est = +0.17, actual = +0.19
INFA est = +0.03, actual = +0.04
ISSX est = +0.14, actual = +0.13
JAKK est = +0.22, actual = n/a
MMSI est = +0.16, actual = +0.16
MKSI est = +0.23, actual = +0.23
PECS est = +0.14, actual = +0.12
PSEM est = -0.01, actual = -0.02
PRAA est = +0.37, actual = +0.38
SANM est = +0.04, actual = +0.05
SBYN est = -0.07, actual = -0.07
SCSS est = +0.17, actual = +0.18
SIMG est = +0.05, actual = +0.06
SNWL est = +0.02, actual = +0.03
MDCO est = +0.05, actual = +0.08
TLGD est = +0.05, actual = n/a
USNA est = +0.29, actual = +0.30
WEBX est = +0.21, actual = +0.22

STX saying guidance too cloudy - no guidance now

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  4:01:00 PM
Well, that's a directional move! Again, the OEX is vulnerable to a bounce up to mid-channel Keltner resistance tomorrow morning, with that resistance currently at 554.30, but turning lower. Doesn't mean it will happen, but there's that vulnerability.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:59:34 PM
Day trade close out alert for Bema Gold (BGO) at the offer of $2.90. running out of time.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  3:55:30 PM
HE - announced a 2:1 stock split.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:45:52 PM
The OEX is vulnerable to a bounce, having violated the Keltner channels far to the downside. Keep this in mind as you make up your mind about whether to hold overnight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:39:00 PM
The OEX did, of course, reach a lower low on the five-minute chart, validating the breakdown out of that bear flag. It's approaching 549.50 support, but as I mentioned a couple of times over the last few days, that "bull flag" on the daily chart looked to be a broadening formation on the intraday charts, so it's actually difficult to pinpoint a downside breakout point below that flag.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  3:28:56 PM
Sector update @ 3:30 PM ET...

Winners:
XAL airlines: +0.63%
RLX retail: +0.38%

(Biggest) Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -3.74%
NWX networking index: -2.50%
SOX semiconductors: -1.80%
DJUSHB home builders: -1.63%
OIL oil index: -1.62%
OSX oil services: -1.46%
DRG drug index: -1.42%
GHA hardware: -1.35%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:28:32 PM
The OEX bear flag appears to be breaking to the downside. The test will be if we see a new low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:28:00 PM
Day trade short alert ... Bema Gold (BGO) $2.97 here at the bid, stop $3.01, target $2.85 by the close.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  3:20:17 PM
Greenspan says deflation no longer an issue. That would suggest inflation is the stronger problem now and suggest rates could rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:20:13 PM
Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 203.09 -4.07% ... still defensive... session lows on Greenspan's optimistic comments. Challenges its November 7th pullback low of 202.81.

Broader market averages seem to be keying off of HUI's weakness today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:18:25 PM
The OEX is rising in what appears to be a bear flag after it hit the lower Keltner channel support and neared the target for its H&S. If that's truly a bear flag, it shouldn't retrace more than 50% of the flagpole drop that preceded it, so shouldn't get much higher than 553.85 before it breaks down again. I'm not so sure that will happen, as the shape of its rise makes me wonder if it might overshoot resistance a bit. Let's see.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:16:19 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:05:16 PM
Bearish day trade target alert ... SMH $38.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:04:58 PM
The OEX is now hitting bottom Keltner channel support as well as approaching the target for its H&S on the five-minute chart. Bearish traders should be following the OEX lower with their stops now, as this could be a valid breakout signal, but it's demonstrating a shifting of risk. The OEX should attempt a bounce now somewhere through here, down to 551.50, with that being a bounce up to test broken support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  3:02:00 PM
Today illustrates the importance of being aware of the usual movements of the markets during certain periods of the day. I noted today when it was happening that the upside break over the neckline of an inverse H&S on the OEX was occurring during the usual stop-running time of day. That's a time when there's often a push up through resistance or down through support. It's a time when market makers measure strength or weakness by the immediate reaction to that push. If a push through resistance holds, longs feel more confident of jumping in. If it doesn't hold, they know there's weakness in the markets. While it shouldn't be standard practice to ignore stops during that stop-running time of day, it sometimes pays to be hesitant to enter a new trade on a trigger hit during that time period.

Now the OEX has broken soundly through the neckline of a larger regular H&S on the 5-minute chart. Although I had been drawing a tighter formation this morning and had been concerned because the right shoulder seemed to be extending too far, I think I must have been wearing blinders, because there was a different configuration for that H&S right in front of my eyes: Link Expect a bounce up to retest that neckline or the gathered 100/130-pma's across various time frames, although I'm not sure that bounce will occur any time soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  3:01:45 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:55:46 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 479.28 -1.59% ... session low, but sitting right on its WEEKLY 80.9% retracement.

Here's chart shown at 12:00:00 PM EDT Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:52:32 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 336.67 (unchanged) ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  2:52:17 PM
The $RUT has fallen out of the ascending regression channel on its 30-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:51:10 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $38.53 and RED #5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:50:32 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) just off session high YIELD of 4.416%, but rather sharp move after being unchanged at beginning of Greenspan testimony. Now up 4.1 basis points at 4.411%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:48:23 PM
Day trade lower stop alert for bearish trade in SMH to $38.90.

Here's intra-day 5-minute chart with lower 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  2:40:47 PM
We've spoken a lot about the OEX 30-, 60-, and 120-minute 100/130-pma's over the last week, as they're all grouped closely together with the OEX trading back and forth across them in recent days. Now the OEX is descending to test them again, with those averages currently spaced tightly from 553.96 to 554.60. That should be massive support, but we're sure going to find out, because the OEX is dropping right into those massed averages as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:39:35 PM
Sell Prog. Premium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:38:25 PM
Semiconductor index (SOX.X) 481.96 -1.04% ... moves to session low. DAILY S1 just below at 481.11.

SMH $38.77 -1.24% also making new session low.

QQQ $36.38 -0.43% ... penny below prior session low.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  2:38:00 PM
Reebok Intl (RBK) is breaking out over resistance at $42.50 and hitting new 6-year highs on decent volume today. Earnings are expected on Thursday. Estimates are for 68 cents a share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:36:41 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) was at session low yield of 4.371 at the 02:00 mark, but backing up a bit to 4.393% since Mr. Greenspan began testimony.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  2:35:42 PM
Greenspan speech Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  2:32:07 PM
The $RUT is holding above the 588 support zone, but it's posting a series of lower highs on the 30-minute chart as it does so, a sign that it could break down. It's within an ascending regression channel that began forming on the 15th, trading down/sideways toward the ascending support line of that channel. That supporting trendline crosses at about 585.50 currently, but is ascending.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  2:30:31 PM
Greenspan comments
Most of the comments are about banking, no real rate risk for banks.

No comments about monetary policy

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  2:30:13 PM
I can't find a catalyst but shares of Tiffany & Co (TIF) are on the move. TIF is up 2.75% and breaking out over resistance at $40.00 and its 100 & 200-dma's. This could be a more aggressive bullish entry point but there is minor resistance at $41.40 and again at $43.00. Earnings are expected on May 12th.

FYI... the trendline of lower highs from late December's peak across the early March peak stopped the rally today so a trigger above $41.40 might be a good idea.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  2:19:14 PM
TJX, an apparel retailer, looks pretty good breaking out over resistance at $25.50 but shares probably move too slowly for directional call plays.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  2:16:22 PM
In addition to confirming a lower high on the OEX 1-minute chart, the OEX has now dropped below an ascending trendline that began building shortly before noon, another sign of short-term weakness. However, this is just bringing the OEX down to test mid-channel support on the Keltner channels, so it's possible that the OEX could find support there.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  2:15:56 PM
Wow! Check out Conagra Food Inc's (CAG) last five weeks. That's a very narrow channel (and CAG is no doubt overbought) but the stock is hitting new 5-year highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  2:12:02 PM
The OEX has just confirmed a lower high on the one-minute chart. Although we don't make all our decisions on one-minute charts, I turned to this short-term chart today specifically because the OEX was pausing just after breaking above the neckline of its inverse H&S and had broken out during the stop-running push time of day. I wanted to see how valid that breakout appeared to be.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  2:02:24 PM
Since early morning haven't had any more buy/sell program premium alerts.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  2:01:37 PM
Another stock for the watch list is Kimberly Clark (KMB). The stock is close to breakout to a new high over resistance at $65.25. If it doesn't this could be a very bearish double-top pattern. Earnings on Thursday should guide the stock's future direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:56:59 PM
The $RUT.X is pressed up right underneath the descending trendline off the 10:00 high this morning. A move above 589 would constitute a break above that trendline, but it might be more comfortable to see the Russell 2000 back above 589.25 resistance before having too much faith in an upside breakout. So far, though, the Russell 2000 has not broken above that trendline.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:53:15 PM
Breaking out to another new all-time high is HSIC but volume has been fading on the rally and the company is due to announce earnings on April 27th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:52:44 PM
The OEX came back to retest the neckline of that inverse H&S on the 2-minute chart, but that support is looking iffy. As I mentioned in my 13:35 post, we're in that stop-running time of day, and it's possible that the run above that neckline is not going to hold. I've been saying all day that I expected to see formations set up and then dissolve, and this could be happening now, too. Bulls want to see the OEX firm up support at about 555.50 and then begin moving up again.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:50:49 PM
Keep an eye on Tellabs Inc (TLAB). The stock is a pivotal juncture, just under its declining trendline of resistance and its 50-dma. Earnings are tomorrow morning before the bell and estimates are for the company to breakeven.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:48:07 PM
observation... Fastenal Co (FAST) continues to set new highs but the stock looks more and more overbought. FAST is up six weeks in a row and volume has been light on the last two days of gains. Earnings were last week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:41:43 PM
The inverse H&S on the OEX 2-minute chart wins, with an upside target of about 556.70 now set.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:41:20 PM
a quick observation...MSFT is up 1.17% and breaking out from what looks like a bull flag pattern and through resistance at its 40 & 50-dma's but volume remains light. Earnings due out on Thursday evening.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:35:42 PM
As we enter that stop-running time of day, the OEX shoots up to test the neckline of the inverse H&S formation on its two-minute chart (also the shoulder level of its regular H&S formation on that same chart). Remember that Greenspan begins speaking soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:30:56 PM
I'm still watching to see whether the regular or inverse H&S on the OEX 2-minute chart confirms first. One moment, one looks more likely to confirm and the next, the other does. That right-shoulder level on the regular one is now growing so extended, however, that I'm not sure that formation has any validity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  1:20:33 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:16:46 PM
Luxury handbag maker Coach (COH), who also sells luggage, shoes and other leather goods, reported earnings this morning that rose 76% over last year's period. Net income hit 30 cents per share, 3 cents better than expected. Sales rose 42% to $313.1 million, also above estimates. The company guided higher for the next quarter and shares are up 6.58% to $42.10 but still under short-term resistance at $43.00. COH's Chairman and CEO was very optimistic (as would be expected) and said, ""Looking ahead, we've never felt more positive about our prospects for growth, which rest on our distinctive proposition, strong brand equities, and expanding market share."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  1:10:14 PM
Vacation alert I'm out of the office all next week, so will probably not be profiling any swing trades, other than a potential option or two, as I won't be here to follow next week.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:08:36 PM
Positive comments from SoundView are helping ERTS breakout from what looks like a bull-flag pattern and above its simple 10-dma. Shares are up 1.97% to $53.19 and this could be a bullish entry point for any potential earnings run into its May 4th report.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  1:05:20 PM
Day trade short alert ... Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $38.82 -1.14% here, stop $39.10, target $38.40.

First 5-minute bar was from $39.15-$39.34.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  1:04:22 PM
Freeport Mcmoran (FCX) is trading down 2.17% and breaking down through support at $35.00 despite dramatically beating analysts' estimates this morning. The 3.6% drop in copper futures is depressing both FCX and PD today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  1:03:15 PM
QQQ $36.40 and session low.

SOX.X 482.50 -0.92% and session low. Also at its 5-MRT Red #6 of 482.26.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  1:02:30 PM
We have competing scenarios on the OEX 2-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  1:01:28 PM
Genta Inc. (GNTA) $13.25 +7.72% Link ... higher after it and Aventis (AVE) $74.35 -1.84% Link announced availability of Genasense Injection for use in combination with dacarbazine through an Expanded Access Program for eligible patients in the U.S. with advanced melanoma who have not previously received chemotherapy.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  12:57:48 PM
a quick observation... Dow-component GM is up 5.67% after its earnings report this morning and shares are breaking out over resistance at $48.00 and its simple 50-dma. However, the stock's rally has stalled right at its simple 100-dma and shares still have tough resistance at the $50.00 level.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  12:55:37 PM
99c Only Stores (NDN) is up 3.7% on big volume and painting a potential one-day reversal pattern after weeks of declines. The company reported earnings of 20 cents per share, a penny better than expected. Revenues jumped more than 17% to $230.1 million. Future guidance was actually below analysts' current estimates, which may mean today's move is just short covering.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:53:38 PM
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) $19.23 +4.28%

Plug Power (PLUG) $9.84 +2.07%

Both hanging tough today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  12:52:10 PM
The Russell has been finding support just above 588 and now is trying to head up again, although tentatively. The two-minute chart shows a descending trendline that began forming off the 10:02 high, with that trendline now crossing at about 589.70, in the middle of a short congestion zone this morning. Resistance also perhaps exists near 589.25. It's not clear yet whether the Russell can or will rise high enough to challenge that resistance, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  12:45:37 PM
If the OEX is building a larger H&S on its five-minute chart, then it's building it with two right shoulders, something that does sometimes occur. Even with two right shoulders, that development is extending a bit too long for my liking, however. I'm suspicious of all chart developments today, having seen far too many days like today when formations start to set up and then dissolve into something else.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  12:43:15 PM
I don't see notice of any IPO's today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:38:14 PM
WEEKLY Pivots at this point of session, all major indices have seen a test of their WEEKLY Pivots, but buyers have been firm.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:33:30 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $90.78 ... session low of $86.20 very close to 5-MRT Red #5 of $86.62. Some overlap resistance at RED #2 and PINK fitted $97.75.

I think CNBC just said CEO was going to be coming on.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  12:27:59 PM
It's sad and disturbing to think what's happening to some TASR longs today, to people who might not have experienced early 2000 and might have held on too long this morning, thinking it's got to turn around any moment. I wouldn't count anything past TASR, but we on these pages know that sound account management would have dictated raising stops, setting profit targets, considering leveraged exits, selling partial positions on the way up, and other tactics to protect profits if long. A few weeks ago, I discussed some methods of protecting profits if in long TASR options plays, such as selling half or more of the position so that you were out for a profit or breakeven and letting the rest run, selling profitable options and using half the proceeds to roll up into a higher strike, creating a spread by selling a higher-strike option against the owned lower-strike option. I hope many employed those tactics. My sympathies truly go out to those who may not have and who may now have losses. We've all been there and done that, and suffered the consequences of believing too strongly that something will turn around any moment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:27:45 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert for the QQQ $36.42 here .... keeps trading $36.41, but not target of $36.40. Close enough for me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:19:56 PM
Day trade lower bearish stop alert for QQQ $36.50-0.08% to $36.60.

session low has been $36.45.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  12:17:32 PM
I now think the larger H&S on the OEX five-minute chart has a descending neckline, with the OEX currently at that neckline. Here it is: Link If the OEX does break through now, it would have a downside target of 552.15, but despite that one breach of the neckline level, I wouldn't yet consider the neckline confirmed. That looked as if the OEX just over ran the support a bit.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/20/200,  12:15:47 PM
TASR is down $30.00? What goes up must come down Jeff?

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  12:12:56 PM
Yesterday evening CNF Inc (CNF), a trucking company, reported earnings of 45 cents per share compared to analysts' estimates of 36 cents. Revenues of $1.35 billion were higher than expected and the company guided higher for the second quarter. Analyst reaction was mostly positive as Merrill Lynch upgraded CNF to a "buy" and SoundView upgraded CNF to a "neutral". Shares of CNF gapped higher above major resistance at $36.00 this morning and they're currently up 3.37% to $36.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:12:42 PM
Taser (TASR) $88.92 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:12:04 PM
QQQ/SOX observation.... looks like SOX trades one level lower than QQQ in the DAILY Pivot today, and not a matched pair.

MSFT $25.79 +1.01% looks to be the QQQ strength today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:08:34 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $92.71 ... updated 10-minute interval chart at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  12:07:44 PM
Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) is down 4.97% to $14.33 on very big volume after reporting earnings this morning that were a penny better than estimates. Net income hit 19 cents per share. Revenues soared almost 64% for the quarter to $249.4 million but AMTD still missed the revenue estimate from analysts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:04:12 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $93.87 ... looking $89-ish here.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  12:02:06 PM
Panera Bread (PNRA) is up 2.47% to $42.25 on an upgrade from "peer perform" to "out perform" by Thomas Weisel but the stock is still struggling with a longer-term trend of lower highs dating back to last September.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  12:00:00 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Looks to have found sellers at the WEEKLY Pivot earlier this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:59:36 AM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is up 2.7% to $28.14 on some positive broker comments this morning. Shares had pulled back from what looked like a short-term double-top in early April but now we're seeing a rebound from support near $27.00 and its 40-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:51:35 AM
Standard & Poor's is making changes again to its roster in the S&P 500 index. Mylan Labs (MYL) will replace Sprint PCS (PCS) in the S&P 500. after the close of trading on Thursday, April 22nd. Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) will take MYL's place in the S&P Midcap 400 index. Multimedia Games (MGAM) will move into PSUN's spot in the S&P smallcap 600.

S&P also announced that Valero Energy (VLO) will takeover John Hancock's (JHF) spot in the S&P 500 but no date has been announced yet. Alliant Techsystems (ATK) will move from the smallcap 600 to take VLO's spot in the midcap 400. Cyberonics (CYBX) will move into ATK's spot. (source: Reuters)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:42:43 AM
Today's OEX high tested the 50-dma at 557.11. Now the daily RSI, almost always the first of the indicators to react, has hooked slightly down again. While it's the most sensitive of the indicators I watch and sometimes serves as a leading indicator, it can also be fickle. I use it as a warning, rather than as an absolute predictor, but it's not signaling strength so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:38:58 AM
Reader Question: Keene just mentioned that the ES and YM have just filled their gaps. Is this good or bad? and why? What is the overall significance of this? This is one of those things that I THINK I understand...but am not really sure :-)

Response: I bet you have a pretty good intuitive understanding, but this is a great topic to discuss. I find that it's important to watch three different levels on gaps--the top, middle, and bottom of the gap. We can suppose that there's gap support (or resistance, depending on whether it's a gap up or down) at the top and the bottom of a gap, but that 50% level is important, too. Let's imagine that an index had gapped higher and then in the first retracement of the day had come down to retest that gap. It's bullish if the index finds support at the top of the gap or somewhere above the midpoint of that gap. It's somewhat less bullish if the index has to descend all the way to the bottom of the gap to find support. If it descends below the bottom and gap support doesn't hold, that's a bearish development. The opposite is true of a downside gap. If the index finds resistance at the bottom of the gap and rolls down again, that's the most bearish case, and bears need to be concerned if the gap is filled and the index moves above the gap level again. One note: gaps can be important into the future, too, depending on the interval chart on which the gap appeared. Gap support or resistance on a daily chart can come into play weeks later.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:35:18 AM
WFMI, another OI call play, is extending its recent breakout. Shares are now up five days in a row and have broken out above multiple (minor) resistance levels. Today's move over $78.00 is certainly encouraging but the biggest test for the bulls is still above it near $79.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:31:59 AM
EBAY, currently an OI call play, did hit another new all-time high this morning but the gains are fading and the stock is down 64 cents to $75.36. Readers should remember that we are not planning to hold over EBAY's earnings, which are due out tomorrow night after the close. Odds are good that if EBAY closes under the $75 mark today we'll drop the play in tonight's newsletter instead of at Wednesday's close.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:28:12 AM
OI put play Phelps Dodge (PD) is down another 2.99% to $72.67 after yesterday's failed rally attempt. The drop in copper today certainly helps the bears.

 
 
  James Brown   4/20/200,  11:26:46 AM
Sector update...

Winners:
XAL airlines index: +1.55%
INX Internet index: +1.08%
GSO software index: +0.98%
RLX retail index: +0.73%

Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -2.29%
XNG natural gas: -0.97%
OIX oil index: -0.89%
XBD broker-dealer: -0.85%
NWX networking: -0.87%

Noteworthy...Copper futures: -2.57%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:26:01 AM
If the OEX is going to form a bigger H&S on the 5-minute chart, it's having a difficult time steadying at the neckline level so it can rise into a right-shoulder. It's trying to steady at the mid-channel Keltner support, currently at 554.95 on the 5-minute chart. A rise much above 556 would negate the pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:22:46 AM
The Russell breached gap support on the 2-minute chart (gap wasn't visible on the 5-minute and up charts), as well as the next support I listed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:09:50 AM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX 5-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  11:05:24 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:04:37 AM
Not only did the OEX 3-minute H&S confirm and not only did it meet the downside target, but it also exceeded that downside target. That's a bearish development, but it's still above mid-channel Keltner support with that support at 554.93 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  11:02:37 AM
There goes the RUT, confirming that lower high I mentioned earlier as a possibility. It's headed into the gap now, where it should find support first at the bottom of the gap at 590.15. On an intraday basis, there's light support below that down to 589.40, but then no real support on the 2-minute chart down to about 587.40. Those who might be playing the Russell with a bearish outlook should be particularly watchful for a bounce from the bottom of the gap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:59:27 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $72.38 +1.13% Link ... earlier this morning reported quarterly EPS of $0.38, which matched consensus estimates.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:54:03 AM
Is the RUT (Russell 2000) headed down again to test this morning's gap? Perhaps. The two-minute chart suggests it may be rounding over into a lower high, but there's support on that 2-minute chart from the current 591-ish level down to 590.80, and then gap support continues below that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:45:37 AM
Remember from our discussion yesterday about H&S and inverse (reverse) H&S patterns that we no longer can assume that they're going to be confirmed or fulfill their targets if confirmed. That's particularly true of short-interval patterns such as one on a three-minute chart. However, watching whether these patterns complete and then fulfill their targets tells us something about underlying strength or weakness. If this current possible H&S on the OEX three-minute chart is rejected, we understand immediately that the OEX has more underlying strength than it appeared to have and we have more confidence in the upside. If it's confirmed and meets its downside target at about 555.50 currently, we know that it's showing more weakness than the zoom up predicted it would.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:41:02 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 487.00 (unch) ... slips back under MONTHLY Pivot.

QQQ paying no attention at $36.71.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:37:54 AM
If that's a H&S forming on the OEX 3-minute chart, then the OEX should slow its ascent right about here (557) and begin steadying and then rounding over into a right shoulder.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/20/200,  10:35:40 AM
Predecessor to the 100-yr mortgage, Jim?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:35:23 AM
Take a look at the 3-minute OEX chart, for those of you with that capability, and you can see a clear possible H&S setting up on that chart. Neckline currently at about 556.50 (currently being tested) but rising and with the right shoulder still to be formed. That would mean that we should expect a bounce beginning about now, but that should be a bounce into a lower high or that pattern is not valid. Today, however, I would not be surprised to see a series of bullish or bearish patterns set up and then dissolve before completing or else soon afterwards.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  10:34:12 AM
Network Solutions announced a new service this morning. They are offering a 100-year deal on domain name registration. For $999 they will register your domain for 100 years to keep you from accidentally losing it because you simply forgot to renew. 100 years is a very long time considering the Internet is still in its infancy. Wonder what their response rate has been? Maybe we should offer a 100 year newsletter subscription. (grin)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:31:26 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 488.47 +0.29% ... above MONTHLY Pivot of 487.16, and just below WEEKLY Pivot of 489.78, where session high has been 490.32.

sitting right in a little "zone of resistance"

QQQ $36.70 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:27:24 AM
The OEX hit the upper Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart and bounced right down. It's now at possible support near 556.60, with other Keltner support just below that at 556.35, also the breakout level for the cup-and-handle formation. It looks as if that breakout level is being tested, with a firming up here seeming to confirm the breakout and a fall below that level suggesting that the breakout make have been a false move. Notice all the qualifiers I'm using? That's because I'm hesitant in front of all the earnings and Fedspeak this week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:18:55 AM
Day trade short alert ... QQQ $36.72 here, stop $36.83, target $36.40.

Looking for some "Greenspan tentativeness" back to DAILY Pivot and RED #3

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  10:13:41 AM
The OEX has so far maintained that breakout over the cup-and-handle's lip, although it may be retracing now to retest that breakout level. I'm not confident that pattern will actually fulfill the now-predicted upside target since that handle seemed a bit out of proportion to the cup size to me. It just doesn't look to be a standard-fare cup-and-handle to me. The upside target would be somewhere in the range of 563-564.40, depending on how many candle shadows are included. (I'm using the 30-minute chart.) I'm not confident about much concerning index direction today as there are just too many opportunities to deliver a blow to any directional movement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:13:15 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 337.54 +0.25% .... just above yesterday's high (337.51) but tentative in front of Greenspan.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  10:12:52 AM
Earnings after the bell today include:
AMCC, ASKJ, CYMI, LSCC, MOT, SANM, ACL, ALL, AVB, BCGI, CHRW, BCR, CECO, CTX, CKFR, CAKE, CGNX, CVG, CTS, DV, ENTU, HUMC, RX, INFA, ISSX, JKHY, JAKK, JH, KTO, KANA, MMSI, MIL, MKSI, OI, PECS, PSEM, PRAA, RLRN, STX, SBYN, SCSS, SGI, SIMG, SMDI, SNWL, SOV, STK, TER, MCDO, TLGD, TWP, TRI, TUP, VIRL, WEBX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/20/200,  10:05:16 AM
The Fed is taking no action today, which results in a 3.25B net drain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  10:04:28 AM
U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Weakness is Gold ... Homebuilders down just 0.45% (for some reason, takes awhile for DJUSHB to update correctly)

Strength is Internet, Retail, Health Providers, Airline

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:57:45 AM
VCampust (VCMP) updated 30-minute chart with two fitted retracement. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  9:52:36 AM
Jeff's careful coverage of TASR points out the reason that stock would never tempt me into a play, either long or short. Likely, any who tried to short it at $100 were stopped out at a big loss Friday or yesterday. If they weren't, their accounts certainly have a higher pain threshold than mine does. All who went long on yesterday's breakout and many on Friday's are now underwater, even though both days' gains were accompanied by stronger volume. If they were in a long option play entered either Friday or Monday, they're probably still losing money even if they got in slightly lower than the current $107.24 value because of the vagaries of option pricing just before and after opex. The May 100 call is lower this morning than it was almost all day on Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:47:57 AM
Early volume percentage gain/loss at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:44:12 AM
QQQ opening 5-minutes $36.56-$36.66

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:43:18 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) Opening 5-minutes (I think bad tick so I'm looking at a 1-minute interval chart) was from $10.10-$11.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  9:42:54 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 555.78 to 556.80. It's currently above the lip of a possible cup-and-handle formation, but sitting right under the 19.1% retracement of the rise off the March 24 low, with that level at about 556.84. Before I consider the OEX to have broken soundly above the lip of that formation, I'd like to see it hold to the 556.35 breakout level during the first retracement that usually begins in a few minutes. I'm always advising that people be careful, afraid I'm going to be labeled the woman who cries wolf, but be careful of drawing too many conclusions with Greenspan speaking today and with a live conference on Iraq going on right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:41:32 AM
Mace Security (MACE) opening 5-minutes was $7.78-$8.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:40:01 AM
Digital Recorders (TBUS) opening 5-minutes $12.85-$13.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:39:08 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) opening 5-minutes was $102.50-$107.41.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:38:16 AM
VCampus (VCMP) opening 5-minutes was $5.05-$5.29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:37:22 AM
5-MRT table which traders can populate on their own at this Link

Just place the opening 5-minute high/low in the PURPLE/LIGHT BLUE and zones will be calculated for you.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  9:34:05 AM
The OEX opens higher but will almost immediately face Keltner resistance at a 15-minute channel that usually turns back advances, the perfect place for the OEX to pull back into the first retracement of the day. That's at 556.66, but these Keltner lines have a kind of gravitational pull that sometimes tugs the OEX back below them again unless it's really broken free. Consider the Keltner resistance or support I list to be "in the area of" a certain number, rather than just at that number.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:33:12 AM
Swing trade stop alert ... VCampus (VCMP) $5.07 -6.11% ...

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/20/200,  9:31:06 AM
Dateline WSJ Mark Whiston, chief executive of Janus Capital Group Inc., resigned Tuesday. The Denver mutual-fund firm is one of many ensnared in the sprawling fund-trading probe, but says the resignation is unrelated to settlement talks with state and federal regulators.

Mr. Whiston, 42 years old, will be succeeded by Steve Scheid, a former executive with Charles Schwab Corp. who was named chairman of the firm's board at the start of this year. Mr. Scheid, 50 years old, will retain his role as board chairman.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:31:02 AM
VCampus (VCMP) $5.25 -2.6% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:29:55 AM
Bank One (ONE) $51.56 Link ... flat in pre-market after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.87, which was 6-cents better than consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:28:29 AM
Alria (MO) $56.45 Link ... lower at $56.19 after reporting quarterly EPS of $1.16, which was 3-cents better than consensus.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/20/200,  9:28:06 AM
S&P Changes announced last night
MGAM replaces PSUN in S&P 600
PSUN moves to S&P Midcap 400 replacing MYL
MYL goes to S&P-500 replacing PCS
(change will happen Thursday)

VLO replaces JHF in S&P-500
ATK will replave VLO in S&P-400
CYBX replaces ATK in S&P-600

RYN is replacing GL ins S&P-REIT Composit

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:26:59 AM
AK Steel (AKS) $6.26 Link ... higher at $6.65 after reporing narrower loss of $0.15 compared to consensus looking for a loss of $0.43.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:23:05 AM
VCampus (VCMP) $5.40 ... pre-market trade now at $5.07. Has been $5.80 to $5.00 this morning. Will honor stop of $5.09 if traded during regular session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/20/200,  9:14:18 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  8:49:31 AM
Until the last few minutes of trading yesterday, it had seemed as if the OEX would probably print a doji within a possible bull flag formation, but the OEX did manage to tack on a little gain above the opening level, creating a small real body for yesterday's candle. The OEX had spent the day traveling either side of the mid-channel Keltner level on both the 5- and 15-minute charts, and finally broke out of the symmetrical triangle it had formed in the late afternoon. That break was to the upside, creating that small real body. That small real body formed just under the 50-dma, currently at 557.33, with that level also being one of historical S/R.

The trouble is that the Keltner channels on the 15-minute chart are settling into an equilibrium pattern, not unexpected perhaps ahead of Fedspeak this week, with Greenspan leading the parade beginning today. When that happens, we know that a breakout is coming, but often have little clarity about the direction of that impending breakout. Near doji, equilibrium positions on Keltner charts, inconclusive oscillator evidence, no break either direction out of a possible bull flag: it's difficult to draw a conclusion about market direction from those signs, because those signs all point to inconclusive evidence and undecided direction. It is possible to discover bullish potential, in a possible cup-and-handle formation on the OEX 30- and 60-minute charts, with a break above 556.40 constituting a break above the lip of that possible cup-and-handle formation. To me, however, the handle seems a bit out of proportion to the cup, extending too long in time, but we'll just have to see what develops.

The truth is that what's on these charts may not be as important as what comes out of Greenspan's lips today. I would counsel traders to keep a close watch on the TNX to see how the bond traders are reacting to Greenspan's speech. The TNX has also been pulling back into what might be a bull flag formation, but it's pulling back toward the recently violated descending trendline. A break back below that trendline, currently at about 4.24%, might signal that bond traders believe that rate hikes will likely come later rather than sooner, while a break above last week's 4.469% high or especially above 4.50%, might signal the opposite. A strong belief in a quick rate hike might be deleterious to stock prices in the short-term at least.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/20/200,  8:07:01 AM
There are no major economic reports due this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/20/200,  7:07:58 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei likes to gap up or down in the mornings, and in Tuesday's trading, it gapped higher by almost 60 points. It spent the morning firming up support near 11,800 and then climbed all the way to 12,037.95. It couldn't hold the 12,000 level, however, and retreated in the last few minutes of trading. It still managed to close higher by 188.05 points or 1.60%, at 11,952.26.

Computer-related issues and chip equipment makers led the earliest gains. The chip equipment makers gained on news that March's book-to-bill ratio for their North American competitors was 1.10, showing that orders were outpacing sales. The three-month average of global bookings for North American chip-equipment makers rose 70% from the year-ago period. These groups ended the day higher, too. Big caps gained, including bank and auto stocks. Some auto stocks perhaps reacted to news or rumors, such as the news that Nissan would introduce more new models than previously expected. Some retailers rose in early trading, too, with a newspaper reporting that Japan's largest retailer Aeon will build more than 20 shopping malls by February 2007 in its bid to possibly compete with Wal-Mart. By the end of the day, the gains in those retailers had encouraged investors to buy other domestic issues, too. Goldman, Sachs raised Bridgestone Corp to an outperform rating from its former in-line rating, helping the tire manufacturer post gains in early trading. After the bell, Sony raised its earnings guidance.

Other Asian bourses mostly closed higher, with semi-related stocks appearing to mostly gain throughout the region. The Taiwan Weighted closed higher by 0.31% and South Korea's Kospi gained a strong 1.86%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.31%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.45% and China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.39%, making these two of the four declining bourses in the region.

European bourses mostly trade higher despite a disappointing number in Germany's closely watched ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Although a slight decline had been expected, April's decline to 49.7 from March's 57.6 counted as more than a slight decline. Continuing employment problems and recent disappointments in industrial production and incoming orders numbers helped lead to that disappointing sentiment number, some speculated. In addition, Germany's March producer prices rose a higher-than-expected 0.6% month-over-month, against the expected 0.3% rise. Many techs moved higher, but as earnings season progresses, many stocks today react to earnings news or speculation about possible earnings results. Vivendi dropped in early trading on rumors that it would warn, although the company denied the rumors, and Infineon was gaining ahead of its earnings report tomorrow, on hopes that its net loss would shrink. In the ongoing Aventis takeover saga, Aventis filed suit in the U.S. against Sanofi-Synthelabo, saying the company misrepresented facts or made omissions in the public documents detailing its offer for Aventis. Aventis wants U.S. courts to hold up Sanofi-Synthelabo's hostile bid until they determine that Sanofi-Synthelabo complies with U.S. law. Aventis was dropping in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was higher by 27.90 points or 0.61%, trading at 4574.10. The CAC 40 had risen 36.97 points or 0.99%, to 3780.40. The DAX had gained 46.34 points or 1.15%, to trade at 4071.41.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/19/200,  12:18:27 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives