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  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  11:03:13 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  5:21:20 PM
Ahead of this weekend's G7

Continuous Gold 394.81 +$0.94 Link

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.05 +0.27 Link

And a relative strength chart of $gold vs. the SPX.X Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:18:33 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 337.29 -0.38% Link ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:14:16 PM
GSTI Software (GSO.X) 159.70 +0.73% Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:11:47 PM
Transports (TRAN) 3,001.71 -0.17% Link ...

Airline Index (XAL.X) 57.08 -2.05% Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:05:05 PM
QQQ $37.26 ... using currently weekly trade with close estimated at $37.25 I calculated weekly pivots as... 35.08, 36.17, 36.71, 37.80, 38.34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:02:38 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $81.15 +5.18% Link ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:00:49 PM
Sell Program Premium

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  4:00:21 PM
Day trade bullish close out alert ... LUV $14.98 at the bid.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:59:42 PM
Day trade bearish close out alert .... QQQ $37.21 here. Close it out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  3:53:49 PM
What a tough day on the markets, right? However, that symmetrical triangle on the OEX is narrowing ever closer to its apex, so I think next week might perhaps be a bit more exciting, although we had a couple of days of excitement this week, too, didn't we? Have a good weekend, everyone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:47:27 PM
QQQ $37.08 +0.45% ... day trade bearish target adjustment ... If QQQ undercuts $37.00 with a trade at $36.95, come in and close out bearish day trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  3:46:54 PM
In my 15:29 post, I mentioned that I was seeing some possible early bearish divergence with respect to the way the OEX was moving within its ascending regression channel. That possible bearish divergence became even more pronounced on the last OEX bounce within that regression channel, since this time, it hit only the midline resistance level before turning down, rather than approaching the top line of that channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:36:49 PM
Taser (TASR) $80.45 +4.3% ... back at this upward trend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:35:29 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  3:31:25 PM
Jeff, I figured you for a guy who liked more trees.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:29:57 PM
There was my hunting retreat on CNBC

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  3:29:24 PM
The OEX just hit the bottom of the ascending regression channel that it's been following most of the day and it started higher again. I think Keene has been following a similar regression channel in some of his commentary. So far, the OEX version is working just fine to define support and resistance. I do note, however, that the last approach to resistance saw the OEX turning down before the top line when earlier it had hit the top line before turning down. Sometimes that can be a sign of bearish divergence, but I'm not going to read too much into it this afternoon.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  3:26:34 PM
Sector update....

(Biggest) Losers:
XAL airlines index: -2.16%
DJUSHB homebuilders: -1.84%
XAU gold & silver: -1.44%
HMO healthcare: -1.18%
INX Internets: -1.45%

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  3:25:13 PM
Major averages all green.

Sector update....

Winners:
SOX semiconductors: +1.38%
GSO software index: +0.53%
RLX retail index: +0.16%
UTY utilities: +0.03%

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  3:22:55 PM
Thanks to Russ for keeping an eye on ADI for us. The pull back to $45.00 does indeed look like the bullish entry point we thought it was. The stock is bouncing from the bottom of its channel toward the top near $50-51. Right now it's approaching the tough part of the climb with a crowd of moving averages between $48-49.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  3:22:07 PM
Jeff has been commenting on the TRAN's movements today. I'd like to remind readers who may be relatively new to watching the markets that the TRAN's movements often serve as a leading indicator for the Dow's movements, and that's one reason that we watch the TRAN so closely. There are others, including the TRAN's importance in Dow theory. This afternoon's movement back toward the important 3000 level brings the TRAN back above the neckline of its inverse H&S, but it still hasn't been able to move far above that neckline, a fact that puts the breakout in a small degree of doubt at least. Usually when an important bullish signal is given, the breakout results in a strong move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:12:29 PM
Day trade long alert for LUV $15.02 here, stop $14.95, target $15.25. (1,000 share minimum)

Aggressive bulls only, and would want the TRAN to pop from this tight pennant.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:10:47 PM
LUV $14.99 x $15.00 ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  3:09:20 PM
TRAN 3,000.00 ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  3:03:12 PM
Here's the daily OEX chart I posted earlier today, with the only change being that the OEX has bumped above the 50-dma: Link Checking the SPX, Dow, the Nasdaq, and the NDX, I see that all are similarly moving up toward the breakout level of analogous chart formations, but none of those has yet broken out. I'm just not going to trust a breakout in the last hour of a Friday, I don't think, if such a breakout should occur.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:57:22 PM
QQQ $37.13 ... QCharts back up, volume has come to a notable slow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:54:04 PM
My Qcharts are frozen up. Trading off the CNBC ticker here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:50:47 PM
Transports (TRAN) ... ticked up to 2,999.99

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:49:33 PM
Buy program premium

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:47:42 PM
Jane's post about the Daily Planet and Jonathan's reply, all on the Futures side of the Monitor, prompt me to suggest to Jim that perhaps he might consider advertising our site as an educational slash entertainment site.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:47:42 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) didn't quite trade back to 3,000.00 at this point. Afternoon high 2,999.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:44:11 PM
QQQ $37.12 ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:43:18 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $67.06 +0.67% ... stock dropped to session low (filled in 01/06/04-01/07/04) gap of $63.25 after Prudential downgrade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:38:58 PM
Instead of a lower high on the OEX 15-minute chart, we may have either an equal high (currently) or a higher high.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/23/200,  2:36:41 PM
One year after going public, Daily Planet, the first publicly traded brothel in Australia and perhaps the world, plans to sell off its namesake brothel, change its name and focus on the strip club business, Reuters reported this week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:36:10 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,996.73 -0.33%

SPX 1,141.01 +0.09%

OEX 557.00 +0.30%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:33:50 PM
TASR $82.07 ... session high has been $83.10. This thing trades $0.50 increments like most stocks trade $0.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:33:38 PM
The OEX pushes above the 50-dma once again as well as toward the 558-558.25 breakout zone from the symmetrical triangle. Be careful trusting this, however, entering cautiously if thinking about entering on a breakout above the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, if such a breakout should occur. I'm distrustful on a Friday afternoon, and Keltner resistance lies just overhead at 559.44.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:31:11 PM
QQQ $37.16 +0.67% .... that's a 5-minute close above BLUE #1.

Will now look to cover bearish trade on pullback near entry of $37.00 if found. 5-minute bar chart Stochastics "overbought" and might cycle back lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:24:32 PM
QQQ $37.13 +0.54% .. bids back to BLUE #1 again. Since early this morning, hasn't been able to hold a 5-minute bar close above $37.13.

If it does, I'm going to probably have to lower my day trade bearish stop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:18:26 PM
The OEX 60-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have produced a bullish kiss and turned up again, without completing its downward phase. This short-term oscillator isn't a strong predictor of prolonged movements since it can be fickle, so I don't count on this as being a prolonged movement. It's far from certain whether the OEX will have any more upward traction than it did downward traction.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  2:17:10 PM
EBAY starting to look weak at $81.50 after bouncing from $74 on Wednesday. This will be my Editors Play for Sunday. Looking for a short term put with a gap fill target of $75 or so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:14:36 PM
Swing trade bearish stop alert for the TASR May $70 puts (QURQN). $4.30.

TASR $82.89 +7.44% ...

I'll record as being closed out in my weekly table, but those still willing to give some time.... I (Jeff Bailey) would at least hold one as long as TASR stays below $85.00.

I'm not YOU, so YOU do what YOU think you can handle.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  2:07:34 PM
Hmmm... just an observation but defense stock UDI is up 1.94% and trying to breakout over major resistance in the $34.00 region.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:07:08 PM
As a reminder, a move below OEX 554.03 (I mistakenly said 554.06 earlier) will be a confirmation of the lower high seen on the 15-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  2:05:11 PM
In addition to finding it difficult to move above the descending trendline off the March and April highs, the OEX is finding it difficult to remain above the 50-dma, currently at 556.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  2:03:14 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $82.30 +6.68% .... session high here. Seeing some volume build on the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  1:56:36 PM
The bad thing about symmetrical triangles such as the one I linked to my 12:06 post concerning the OEX is that there's just not a lot of clarity while the prices rattle around inside the formation. The good thing is that now we have a well-defined formation we can watch, always being aware that we could see a first stop-running move outside the formation and then a quick reversal. Still, there would be well-defined entries and stops. It appears that the OEX is doing its best to hang up there near the top of that formation until the close today, but if an upside breakout does occur too near today's close, it's going to be tough for traders to decide whether to go long on a breakout before the weekend or to wait for more clarity on Monday. Above the breakout level, resistance lies in close intervals.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  1:45:39 PM
The TRAN is rising again to test that neckline of the inverse H&S, being at that neckline currently, at 2990.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:40:11 PM
Quest Diagnostic (DGX) is moving higher and breaking out over the $85.00 mark after reporting earnings yesterday and guiding higher for the full year. The stock has been consolidating sideways for three months and looks ready to run (higher) again. There is some overhead resistance at $85.85 from February so bullish traders might want to use a trigger there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  1:37:59 PM
We now have a higher high on the OEX two-minute chart, with the OEX again rising to challenge its 50-dma and the lowest of two possible versions of the descending trendline off the 4/05 low. However, after studying the chart that I linked to my 12:06 post today, I changed the opinion I'd had earlier today that the lower of the two trendlines was probably the most important since it lay so close to the 50-dma. Since the higher of the two extends all the way back to the March high, I'd consider that the most important of the two trendlines. That currently crosses near 558-558.25 or perhaps slightly lower.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:36:14 PM
I've been keeping an eye on Amerada Hess (AHC) lately as the stock looks ready to breakout to new highs over resistance at $67.50 but its earnings report on April 28th keeps holding me back.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:34:44 PM
Kohl's Corp (KSS) is up 3.3% to $42.68 and bouncing from new four-year lows hit yesterday after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock this morning. The analyst there believes that KSS's earnings comparisons will get easier going forward.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  1:32:34 PM
BWLD new 52-week high and strong divergence from the trend. No options but could be a "short" replacement for those tiring of TASR.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:32:28 PM
I don't remember if I mentioned this yesterday but Pixar (PIXR) is looking strong and might be a decent bullish candidate if it can breakout over resistance in the 70.00-70.50 range. Earnings are expected on May 6th, though.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:28:18 PM
Earnings for BWA were yesterday. The company beat by a penny and shares rallied with the rest of the market. Now the stock has dipped to and is bouncing from old resistance at $88.00. Bulls might want to consider using a trigger over current resistance $90.00 to open new positions. BWA has a 2-for-1 split for May 18th.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:23:19 PM
Hmm.... CCMP may be a bearish candidate again. We mentioned it a week or so ago when it was trading above $40.00 and looked poised for a breakdown through support. That breakdown did occur and shares dropped to $36.47 before its earnings report. CCMP's earnings weren't so hot and it missed estimates by 7 cents. That sent shares gapping lower on Thursday and they closed under the $35.00 level. Today was a chance to see the stock bounce but it couldn't break past the $35.21 level and now CCMP is struggling under the $34 mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  1:17:57 PM
While there's a possibility that the OEX is in the process of forming a lower high on the 15-minute chart, the rollover is far from accomplished, and there's really been no definitive action as yet to indicate when a rollover or upside breakout might occur. That big symmetrical triangle on the daily chart shows me that there's a battle between the bulls and the bears, one that's ongoing today as neither group appears able to gain much traction as yet. A fall below 554.06 would confirm that lower high, however, although the OEX will then be facing all those grouped 100/130-pma's across many time intervals.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  1:17:12 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  1:16:37 PM
Heads up on ITT. The earnings-inspired bullish breakout on Thursday is seeing a lot of profit taking today. The stock is bouncing somewhat from its lows this morning but right now Friday's candlestick looks like "dark cloud cover", which is bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  1:05:58 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  1:03:32 PM
Jeff's post about the TRAN reminded me to take a look at how that inverse H&S that I mentioned a few weeks ago might be developing. I followed it for quite a while, since before it turned down into the right shoulder, but have neglected to look at how the formation was progressing since early last week. Here it is: Link Today's close might be particularly important, then, as it might promote the idea that the TRAN has broken above the neckline of that inverse H&S or it might promote the idea that the TRAN is rejecting that bullish formation.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  1:02:53 PM
Fed Gov Broadus making comments - says he does not see strong growth the remainder of the year but gains in the stock market would help spending.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:52:23 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,982.15 -0.83% .... after session low of 2,965.14, has clawed its way back near 3,000.

The buy program came at TRAN 2,970

Looks "just like" the SPX (intra-day), where I'm just now noting that the buy program came at its WEEKLY pivot of 1,134.78, where SPX traded session low of 1,134.81.

SPX traded 1,138.51 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  12:49:55 PM
A New York Times article noted that the three Japanese civilians taken hostage in Iraq, threatened at knifepoint, and finally released have returned home to shaming and angry protests by the Japanese. The article continues to state that the three are virtual prisoners inside their own homes and may be billed $6,000 for their flights home to Japan. Despite the fact that one had begun an effort to help street children in Iraq, all were condemned for their selfish action that had caused the Japanese people much trouble. They defied a Foreign Ministry advisory telling Japanese citizens not to travel to Iraq, and their actions have been labeled reckless and they've been told they should assume personal responsibility for their plights.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:46:51 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.50 +6.01% ... remember what Motorola (MOT) did on Wednesday after it gapped higher? I do.

If MSFT does the same thing (trade in narrow range all day) then might begin to think that the QQQ is going to do the same darned thing.

Will keep this in mind at this point for my QQQ short, should QQQ graaaaadually edge lower near the WEEKLY 38.2% retracement of $36.78 as the session progresses.

Yesterda we looked at a GSO.X chart, but despite MSFT gains, it hasn't been able to get above that 160 level.

Thanks to PSFT $17.98 -4.81% .... ???? Note how this bugger hovers at 5-day support of $18.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  12:37:02 PM
The Russell 2000 has bounced back above its 30-, 60-, and 120-minute 100/130-pma's. As I mentioned earlier, the Russell's pattern on intraday charts is a broadening pattern, and it's difficult to pinpoint a breakout level for the Russell. Even a cursory glance at the daily chart shows a broadening pattern there, too. Finally we have a broadening pattern that makes sense, at least according to classical technical analysis. Such an orthodox (megaphone-type) broadening pattern at the top of a rise is indicative of distribution and so is usually a bearish sign. However, that's usually typified by two rallies to the top, ascending trendline and then a breakdown. We've had three rallies to the top ascending trendline and no breakdown yet, with the Russell 2000 currently smack in the middle of that broadening formation on the daily chart. As I mentioned earlier, the middle of a formation is not the best place for an entry, but it's also going to be difficult to determine exactly when there's been an upside or downside break out that formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:31:12 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) ... Jim reminded me, and I'll remind traders that TASR will split 2:1 next Friday, and expect volatility.

I'll will be gone all next week and won't be here to monitor TASR as active as I have when I have a trade on.

Here's a plan, so you begin thinking what you want to do.

As of right now, TASR looks like it may see a second-consecutive "inside day" of trade. Yesterday's range was inside of Wednesday's, and today' trade (so far) has been inside of yesterday's range. In essence, stock seems to be finding a point of agreement among market participants.

If things stand as they are, I (Jeff Bailey) having taken some profit off the table in a 1/2 position, would really want to hold the 1/2 put position over the weekend, as pressure between bulls and bears should be building as price range narrows.

This stock, and this trade is ALL ABOUT risk management, and VOLATILITY, which comes from UNCERTAINTY (valuation, short squeeze, bullish capitulation, news).

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:29:46 PM
Bulls can keep an eye on Tellabs Inc (TLAB). The company reported positive earnings on Wednesday and shares are up three days in a row. The rally has broken out through multiple layers of resistance at $9.50, its simple 50-dma, and its declining trendline of lower highs.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:27:16 PM
Check Point Software (CHKP) is up another 1.33% and continuing what is currently a five-day rally. The company reported positive earnings on Tuesday and yesterday the stock broke out over resistance at $24.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  12:19:59 PM
It took a while after my 11:41 post in which I speculated that the lack of significant downward traction might mean that the OEX was going to try for a more prolonged bounce attempt, but it's finally making that attempt after hitting an equal low. Now it's within a few cents of the 555.41 upside target predicted by that confirmed double-bottom formation on the 2-minute chart. As yet, there's been no breakout of the symmetrical triangle depicted in the chart linked to my 12:06 post, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:13:24 PM
Buy program premium .... here we go again.... first buy premium today.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:13:15 PM
Ouch! Xerox (XRX) managed to beat estimates by 2 cents but slimming margins has investors on the run and the stock is down 11.3% to $12.78. Support is at $12.50 and its 200-dma at $12.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:12:43 PM
Taser (TASR) $80.45 +4.17% ... too big of a 5-MRT? How about a 2-MRT for you more active traders that think the 5-MRT levels are just too big today. Here's a 2-MRT. All you want is levels, and try to pick up on the pattern of trade. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  12:10:12 PM
Sell Program Premium ... first one since 09:45 AM EDT

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:08:52 PM
Celestica (CLS) is one of today's big winners, up 16.8%, after its earnings announcement last night. Analysts were looking for a loss of 3 cents per share. CLS reported a profit of 2 cents on revenues of $2.02 billion, which were better than expected. Plus, the company guided significantly higher for the current quarter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  12:06:00 PM
Something has to break on the OEX, although the biggest break might not occur until early next week. The OEX is being pressured into the apex of a large symmetrical triangle on its daily chart. Today in particular, it's being pressured by the 50-dma and a descending trendline above it, and by the 72-ema I frequently watch and the 100-dma just below it. The ascending trendline of the triangle is a little lower down than that. Right now, the OEX is inside that triangle, not a particularly great place to initiate a new play, although some with a bearish thesis might be initiating new bearish entries, ready to exit if the OEX instead breaks through the top of this formation: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:05:16 PM
I'm surprised the GSO software index isn't stronger with MSFT's big gain today.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:03:45 PM
Ouch! Deere Co (DE) is down 5.54% to $70.70 after receiving downgrades from Legg Mason and UBS this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:02:27 PM
quick observation... Ingersoll-Rand (IR) is down 4.62% and breaking support at $70.00 and its 21-dma. Its MACD just produced a big sell signal from strongly overbought. Not helping the stock is a downgrade to "neutral" from UBS.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  12:00:58 PM
Friday's useless trivia... According to the Federal Reserve, the average dollar bill lasts 22 months, while the $20 bill lasts 4 years. The $50 and $100 bills last up to 9 years. (-lightbulb press)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  11:58:45 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.47 +5.85% ... here's a bar chart with retracement discussed earlier. Link

Quick note for QQQ, where slightly negative breadth for NASDAQ-100 components and MSFT probably staying pinned under $27.69, might have QQQ vulnerable to some giveback of early gains.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  11:56:55 AM
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) is up 2.56% to $60.75 but off its morning highs of $63.85 after announcing earnings last night of 45 cents a share, which was 12 cents higher than consensus estimates. Wall Street's reaction has been mixed with both upgrades and downgrades on the stock. Technical analysts will note that this morning's gap higher broke through resistance at $60.00 and its simple 200-dma and the stock could bounce from $60.00 once traders finish with their profit taking.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  11:55:30 AM
The Russell 2000 is falling below the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. It's still within territory that we might consider as testing those averages, so watch for a bounce back above them--from 586.68-586.96--as a sign that a bounce attempt is underway, or a continued fall below them. The Russell's 60-minute pattern shows an orthodox broadening pattern, a series of higher highs and lower lows, so that it's difficult to pinpoint either an upside breakout or a downside breakdown for the Russell 2000.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  11:52:12 AM
Scientific Atlanta (SFA) is up 6.16% to $35.62 after reporting earnings of 34 cents per share. Excluding one-time items this was 4 cents better than analysts' estimates. Wall Street's reaction has been positive with several brokers reiterating or upgrading their "buy" or "strong buy" ratings.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  11:47:51 AM
Current OI put AMG is down 1.94% and approaching support at $50.00 again.

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/200,  11:45:46 AM
Sector update...

Winners:
SOX semiconductors: +0.71%
GSO software index: +0.01% ...
Copper futures: +0.61%

(Biggest) Losers:
XAL airlines index: +3.07%
INX Internet index: +2.21%
XAU gold & silver: +1.80%
DJUSHB homebuilders: +1.70%
HMO Healthcare: +1.50%
XBD broker-dealers: +1.59%

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  11:43:49 AM
The Internet stocks are not doing well today. I was looking at playing some puts on the IIX or INX but the open interest is mostly zero and prices are very high.

EBAY -0.93
AMZN -3.11
YHOO -1.54

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  11:41:09 AM
The OEX did get some downward traction going on the current stochastic downward cycle, but not much. It stopped short of the mid-channel Keltner support at 553.62, with the 30-, 60-, and 120-minute 100/130-pma's also supporting the OEX as it moved down. Now the longer-term 21(3)3 stochs have made a bullish kiss on that five-minute chart, and the OEX might try a more prolonged bounce attempt again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  11:28:55 AM
On the OEX, the five- and fifteen-minute charts, two charts I watch frequently when looking at Keltner channels, show oscillators that are opposed, with the 15-minute oscillators trying to turn up again. On the five-minute chart, however, the shorter-term stochs have had time for another upward cycle and are ready to turn down again. Now, the 60-minute 21(3)3 stochastics have made a tentative bearish kiss, too. I'm not certain yet if this is the downward cycle of the 5-minute stochs that will be big enough to turn down the stochs on those other charts, particularly with the 15-minute chart's oscillators working at cross purposes, but it could be. Soon, we're going to have to decide that if these downward cycles on the 5-minute oscillators aren't accompanied by a downward spike in prices, too, then it's not going to happen and the longer-term oscillators will likely start trending while price tries to spike higher again. Let's see what happens on this cycle.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  11:22:46 AM
The advdec line is not improving, but instead continues lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  11:21:21 AM
The Russell 2000 is dropping down to 588 support, and is easing below it as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  11:13:17 AM
TASR May $70 Puts (QURQN) bid/ask $4.70 x $5.00 as TASR trades $81.30

I think we've got them priced pretty good based on yesterday's moving lower of a stop in the option to $4.30, and current technicals at hand in the underlying stock. Not "exact" but pretty close. Out-the-money is always difficult as volatility is the moving target variable.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  11:07:55 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  11:02:18 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  10:57:01 AM
Another word of caution to OEX traders considering bearish plays: I just checked the spreads on the OEX puts, and they seem awfully wide to me. I haven't checked options prices against historical volatility measures, but a May 560 put has a $.90 bid/ask spread and a June has a $1.50 bid/ask spread. With the volatility indices not showing a spike, there's always the possibility that a directional move will spike them up and keep options prices inflated, but those wide spreads are going to make it difficult to make any money unless a big directional move gets underway. Those are old-style spreads, such as we used to have when the OEX did make bigger moves than it's been making lately. I don't know . . . that's kind of troubling to anyone considering an OEX play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:55:24 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $41.33 -1.80% ... did make a session low of $41.25 at this point. I want(ed) a bearish entry at $41.82.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  10:51:16 AM
This is our mandatory spring snow that breaks all the limbs off the trees and makes a mess. They were predicting 9-15 inches last night (biggest snow of the year if it happens). With temperatures in the 70-75 degreee range for the last several weeks we thought we were going to miss it this year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  10:50:01 AM
If the advdec line's trajectory is any guide, and it often is, today isn't going to be an up day. If it's serving as a leading indicator, as it often does, it's leading down. As always, however, let price be the arbiter of any trades you consider, as we could be one buy program away from an improving advdec line. Sure wish we had a reliable TRIN to watch, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:48:53 AM
TASR $81.07 +5% ... just off high of session $81.70, but looks like it wants to work up to BLUE #3 at least.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/23/200,  10:48:42 AM
Linda I was thinking the same thing about the snow. That would not be nice today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  10:47:15 AM
Wet snows? (See Jeff's 10:43 post.) I've got my air conditioning cranked down here in Dallas, as we've got Houston-type humidity today (and as a long-term resident of Houston, previously, I feel qualified to judge humidity levels).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:46:51 AM
NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link Breadth negative at 58:42 right now.

QQQ $37.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:43:17 AM
I'm starting to have some problems with my TV cable, and very wet snows here in Denver sometimes has my cable (also used for internet) shutting down.

If I go offline, I've tried to outline plans with targets stops.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  10:41:57 AM
Back. We could have a buy program hit at any moment now and turn the whole day's action around, but so far, that resistance from the descending trendline off the 4/05 high is holding on the OEX. However, during this morning's action, the 30-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have cycled all the way down almost to levels indicating oversold levels, something that worries me since they cycled down so far on a minimal drop. I'm just not feeling confident that a directional move is upon us yet, although I could be wrong, of course.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:41:14 AM
Day trade short alert .... QQQ $37.00 here, stop $37.25, target $36.50.

Slipping back under the WEEKLY R1 of $37.04.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:25:59 AM
Toll Brother (TOL) $41.69 -0.95% ... considering a day trade short with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 8.7 bp.

Toll's 5-minute bar 41.82-42.09, would have lower 5-MRT showing RED #5 at $40.95, which would be a gap fill lower from yesterday's gap higher. I want a bounce back higher near $41.82 to give some room for profit to $40.95 target.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/200,  10:25:52 AM
Speech by Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
Global Imbalance Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:20:16 AM
Taser (TASR) $79.20 +2.68% ... comes back up to BLUE #1

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  10:16:16 AM
The OEX is trying to turn up again, with stochastics on the five-minute chart turning up again, but's not making much headway in this cycle up, which would be typical if it's really true that the stars will all align in a downward cycle across the 5-, 30-, and 60-minute charts. That five-minute upward cycle appears to have just aborted early as I type, however, although I don't really trust that action, either. The 30-minute 5(3)3 stochs have cycled fairly far down, a fact that worries me since the OEX also hasn't made much headway to the downside, either. The longer-term 21(3)3 stochs have not hooked down through the signal line on either the 30- or 60-minute chart. The advdec line isn't strong, but neither is the QC:TRIN.NY that Jane advised us to watch very weak or cycling up. Mixed picture here. So far, the strongest evidence I can cite is that the OEX has not been able to maintain a breakout above resistance, so that's one bearish sign.

I'll be away from my desk for about 15 minutes. Watch for those stochs to align all the same direction and head down across the 5-, 30-, and 60-minute charts as the OEX turns down from the descending trendline or for all those stochs to begin trending at overbought levels as the OEX drives back above that trendline and the 50-dma, but don't be married to a direction if you're determined to jump into a play today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:15:52 AM
Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:13:14 AM
Deere (DE) $72.34 -3.35% ... was downgraded this morning

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/23/200,  10:12:09 AM
An 8B 6-day repo has just been announced replacing 7.25B expiring for a net 750M addition from the Fed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:12:06 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,984 -0.75% ... not seeing follow through. Has downward trend on SPX/OEX/INDU very much in play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:10:14 AM
QQQ $37.18 +0.7% ... opening 5-minute 36.95-37.13

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:06:47 AM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,496.88 +0.76% .... will be alert for any buy/sell program alerts should NDX.X trade the correlative DAILY R1 and MONTHLY R1.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  10:05:32 AM
SOX.X 489.53 +1.88% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:59:51 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.61 +6.43% ... session highs. First 5-minute bar 27.39-27.50.

I think stock might have upside shot at $28.00 today, but that would be about it. A retracement from the recent highs of $28.80 to low of $24.15 would have 80.9% retracement at $27.92. Will note how stock opened just above this retracement's 61.8% retracement, so may well be in play.

This would fit it with BLUE #5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:57:16 AM
Swing trade lower stop alert ... lowering stop in the TASR May $70 puts (QURQN) to close out should underlying stock trade much above $84.39. (see 09:52:21) chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  9:56:45 AM
The OEX is approaching Keltner support at 554.76.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  9:53:03 AM
Thinking about S.O.'s comments this morning, I note that the 5(3)3 stochastics have turned down already on both the 5-minute and 30-minute OEX chart, having almost cycled all the way to oversold levels on the 5-minute chart, but the longer-term and more reliable 21(3)3 stochastics have not turned down on anything other than the 5-minute chart, although they have made a bearish kiss on the 30-minute chart. I'm wondering if we might have another cycle or two on the five-minute oscillators before those longer-term stochastics get pulled out of territory indicating overbought conditions, so a period of chop this morning before a directional move gets underway to the downside, if it's going to do so. This is just a theory to be tested against the action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:52:21 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $77.21 (unch) ... here's today's trading plan for the remaining 1/2 bearish May $70 puts. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:45:57 AM
Analog Devices (ADI) $47.05 +1.81% .... while I closed out day trade from yesterday, some traders did hold overning.

Opening 5-minute was from 46.62-46.93. If I were still long a short-term trade, I'd be raising stop to break-even minimum.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  9:40:11 AM
Careful about drawing conclusions too soon this morning. The OEX sits right at/under its 50-dma, currently at 556.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  9:38:59 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 557.17 to 556.41.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:37:06 AM
Taser (TASR) $79.80 +3.64% ... opening 5-minute was 75.50-79.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  9:36:21 AM
Reader S.O. reminds us that among the 5-, 30-, and 60-minute stochastics, all but the 5-minute are demonstrating that the OEX is overbought, and are poised to turn lower, as may be already happening. My thought is that this suggests that any opening move higher is subject to vulnerability when all three line up and turn down together (S.O.'s thought, too) but we must also be aware that some of our strongest directional moves occur when stochs begin trending in levels indicating overbought or oversold levels. ADX is above 20 on both the 30- and the 60-minute charts, and is nearing 30 on the 60-minute ones. When ADX gets above 20, we have less trust of the stochastics and above 30, we have none when the signal is against the directional movement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:35:41 AM
Analog Devices (ADI) $46.70 +1.06% ... just opened.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:34:51 AM
Corning (GLW) $11.89 +15.31% ... hot at open. 5-minute bar 11.60-11.91

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/23/200,  9:33:51 AM
Dateline WSJ Internet-search pioneer Google Inc. plans to announce within days that it will push forward with an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.

The announcement is linked to the fact that Google will soon be required to disclose publicly more information about its business, under a Securities and Exchange Commission rule triggered after closely held companies surpass a certain size. Google is expected to have to make such disclosures as early as next week. Lawyers have said that the disclosure requirements can be a trigger for companies to list their shares.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:32:59 AM
Table for 5-MRT calculations at this Link

These are NOT today's 5-MRTS, but those traders that don't have a retracement tool that allows for multiple levels, can enter the 5-minute bar chart high/low and generate their own levels in indices or stocks you are interested in.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:28:36 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $77.15 .... pre-market trade at $77.61. Did trade as high as $81.50 at 08:05 AM EDT.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:27:39 AM
Amgen (AMGN) $57.14 ... higher at $58.72 after posting quarterly results

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:26:33 AM
Amazon.com (AMZN) $48.86 ... lower at $46.20 in pre-market. Mixed comment from brokers after earnings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/23/200,  9:20:52 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  8:55:58 AM
Thursday, the OEX ended the day nudged up against resistance that had been building all through April, at the site of one version of a descending trendline off the April 5 high. Both James and I have speculated that the current daily pattern might be a bull flag pattern, but I've been concerned because this pattern appears to be a broadening one when examined on an intraday chart. It's particularly difficult to establish where a breakdown might occur, although a bit easier to determine where an upside breakout will. Although it's possible to draw several versions of the descending trendline that has been topping the OEX advances since April 5, the two that fit best currently cross at 556 and 557.50. With the 50-dma at 556.43 and with the trendline version that currently crosses at 556 looking like the best fit, I'd probably give that lower trendline more credence. I would, however, require a confirming breakout above the 50-dma before I considered the breakout valid. Then I'd be particularly watchful as 557.50 was approached. I'm particularly worried because futures this morning currently suggest a higher open, meaning that such a trendline break might come during early morning volatility, during the infamous amateur hour. I honestly will not be confident of a break that occurs first thing this morning because there's every possibility that it could be a fake-out move that will soon get reversed as the OEX heads down into the formation again. However, there's a quandary about what to do, because it could also be the beginning of a real move.

Frankly, I don't trust this bull-flag thesis, although I've acknowledged all along that this pullback could be a bull flag. Bull flags aren't typically broadening formations and they don't typically retrace more than 50% of the flagpole rise that preceded their formation. Daily oscillators don't yet fully support a bullish outlook, either. Therefore, anyone considering entering a bullish trade should possibly consider a small-than-usual position, and be aware of the various resistance levels ahead, staying ready to jump out again if the OEX should reverse. That 557.50 trendline marks one important resistance level, and the 563 level marks another.

Likewise, those considering entering a bearish play on the expectation that the OEX will roll down under this resistance or that we'll have a pop-and-drop day if the OEX should jump above that resistance on the open should be aware of the possibly bullish implications of that possible bullish formation as well as the RSI's upward hook. An exit level and account-suitable position size should be determined before an entry is made, and that exit should be taken if the stop is hit. Today may be one of those days when we'll look back and see that the trend was obvious from the beginning of the day, but I see too many possible pitfalls to be confident of that from this perspective. Chicken Little is sounding her warning again, not that the sky is falling, but that winds might be whipping indices back and forth, and today's a day to be careful. For weeks now, I've been expecting choppy trading behavior as the OEX and other indices chop around and established the support and resistance levels that it failed to establish during the late November to late January climb, and that's been what's been happening so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/23/200,  8:31:22 AM
Bonds are diving on a big upside surprise in durable orders, up 3.4%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/23/200,  8:07:26 AM
We await the 8:30 release of March Durable Orders, est. .7%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/23/200,  7:05:51 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened above 12,000 in Friday's trading, stayed above it all day, and closed at the high of the day, up 140.56 points or 1.17%, at 12,120.66. That came within a few points of the April 13 close of 12,127.82, setting up the possibility for an equal high on the Nikkei. There's bearish price/RSI and price/MACD divergence on the daily chart as this equal high is hit, divergence that can still be erased but that currently warns of possible underlying weakness as this equal high is hit.

February's index of services industries fell, sending the yen lower against both the dollar and the euro. Of particular interest in Friday's trading was the surprising news that DaimlerChrysler will withdraw its support for Mitsubishi Motors, tagged as Japan's only unprofitable auto maker. DaimlerChrysler had been expected to participate in the revival package Mitsubishi was putting together. Mitsubishi Motors tumbled almost 25% in Friday's trade as a result, bringing down other Mitsubishi group companies, too. Other auto makers were mixed, with Nissan and Honda gaining and Toyota declining, but only by 0.2%. In other news, QCOM's report had helped stocks such as Kyocera Corp, a company that uses QCOM's technology, and the stock was also helped early Friday after a report speculated that sales of electronic parts will result in a 25% hike in FY operating profit. Microsoft's earnings benefited tech stocks, and Fujitsu did its share, too, soaring more than 9% after it upgraded its FY net profit forecast. Chip-related stocks performed well.

Other Asian bourses mostly climbed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.24%. With terrorism ruled out as the cause of a train collision that may have killed or injured as many as 3000 in North Korea, South Korea's Kospi gained 1.30%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.21% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.78%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian losing bourses, declining 1.34%.

With the exception of Sweden's Stockholm General, all European bourses trade higher. In Britain, GDP rose 0.6% in the first quarter against an expected 0.7%, perhaps easing fears that the Bank of England might raise interest rates next month. In a separately released number March retail sales rose 0.6% against an expectation of a 0.2% rise. In Europe, DaimlerChrysler's stock surged for the same reason that Mitsubishi Motor's stock plunged so deeply, with speculation now arising that DaimlerChrysler's decision signals an intention to pull out of Mitsubishi Motors entirely. Some question what this means for DaimlerChrysler's support of the troubled U.S. Chrysler division. Will DaimlerChrysler focus more of its attention and funds on the turnaround in that division or does this signal an unwillingness to do so? One report mentioned that DaimlerChrysler's strong performance today was tugging other Germany auto makers higher, too. In other stock-specific news, Ericsson revealed earnings that included a 9% rise in Q1 sales and a 22% increase in orders. The company also boosted its outlook for its market, perhaps helping competitor Nokia, too.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 16.20 points or 0.35%, to trade at 4588.00. The CAC 40 has gained 37.35 points or 0.99%, to trade at 3822.90. The DAX has gained 62.42 points or 1.54%, to trade at 4121.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/200,  11:17:33 PM
Trader's Notes In my Stock Trader's Almanac, I'm making the following notes, which are more abbreviated than the following....

4/21/04: A lot of buy/sell program premium alerts, with bulk being sell program's (see 04/21/04 Index Trader Wrap notes). SPX seemed pinned in tight range from WEEKLY S1 1,120 to MONTHLY Pivot 1,126. What was interesting was how the then WEEKLY 80.9% retracement (1,117) was the major level of support, not a WEEKLY or MONTHLY Pivot analysis level. Note: 1,126, or 1,125 continues to be a relatively important and recurring level (max pains, pivots, heavy option interest).

4/22/04: Trade started out very quiet, upbeat earnings for the most part, but SPX still under MONTHLY Pivot of 1,126, bound by early session low of 1,122. Everything calm, looked like a range-bound session forming. At 10:45 AM EDT, SPX traded up to MONTHLY Pivot (1,126.62) for first time in session, then stayed there for 15-minutes. Once a new session high was found, SPX sprinted higher, gaining 8-points in 25-minutes to then trade its WEEKLY Pivot (1,136) at 11:15-20, when at that time, two consecutive buy program premium alerts were generated. SPX held WEEKLY Pivot, then at 11:40-45 AM EDT, another buy program premium generated, and SPX extended move higher where over course of next 2 hours, gained additional 7 points to WEEKLY 38.2% (1,141) and just under MONTHLY 38.2% (1,143). From approximately 02:00 PM EDT to close, traded sideways to finish up 15 points for session, or 1.4%.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/22/200,  9:09:15 PM
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