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  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  4:05:29 PM
Calculating retracement levels: Jeff's 5MRT information has sparked interest in calculating Fibonacci retracement levels. How is that done? If you're lucky enough, you don't have to do that at all, as your charting service will calculate it for you, using a Fibonacci retracement tool. On QCharts, the tool is just labeled retracement, and looks like a leaning bar with a series of colored bars laddered out to the side. To use the tool, you click on the tool, then move the cursor across to the chart in question. Choose a swing high or low and left-click on that level. Don't release, but continue up until you've reached the opposite end of the move. For example, if the OEX were to move between 560 and 550 in one day and that was the high and low of a particular move, you'd left-click at 560, hold as you moved the cursor down to 550, and then release. Voila! The Fib levels will appear. Key levels most watch are the 38.2% retracement of a move, the 50%, and the 61.8%. Using Jeff's 5MRT, you'd also want to watch the 19.1%, and the 80.9% retracement levels.

What if you don't have such a tool? Then you have to calculate those Fib levels yourself. First, calculate the range of the move. That day, the OEX moved from 560 to 550, so it moved 10 points. Then you need to calculate the various Fib levels. The 50% retracement is easy. Fifty percent of 10 points is 5 points. The 38.2% retracement is found by multiplying the 10 points by .382 to find that the 38.2% retracement would be 3.82 points above 550. The 38.2% retracement would then be 550 + 3.82 or 553.82. You'd make similar calculations for the other Fib levels.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  4:02:14 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

LSI est = +0.05, actual = +0.06
TWX est = +0.09, actual = +0.15
WPI est = +0.51, actual = +0.42 Lowered guidance
AFCI est = +0.08, actual = +0.09
AKAM est = +0.04, actual = +0.04
CRUS est = -0.04, actual = +0.12
CNQR est = +0.02, actual = +0.01
CYTC est = +0.18, actual = +0.18
ESST est = +0.13, actual = +0.11
ESRX est = +0.88, actual = +0.89
JDSU est = -0.01, actual = -0.01
KOMG est = +0.54, actual = +0.65
MACR est = +0.15, actual = +0.22
MLNM est = -0.20, actual = -0.07
MGAM est = +0.26, actual = +0.28
OPWV est = -0.12, actual = -0.09
PHTN est = +0.09, actual = +0.14
PTEK est = +0.12, actual = +0.13
QLGC est = +0.36, actual = +0.36 rev light
RNWK est = -0.04, actual = -0.02 Raised guidance
SONE est = -0.03, actual = +0.01
SWKS est = +0.04, actual = +0.05
SOHU est = +0.27, actual =
SRCL est = +0.40, actual = +0.42
SYMC est = +0.34, actual = +0.35 Raised guidance
VARI est = +0.39, actual = +0.43

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  3:52:40 PM
The OEX keeps trying to reach that lower support on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but that support keeps dipping. It's currently at 546.73. Last year, we saw a lot of swing lows in the 544-548 zone, so it's possible that the OEX could slow its descent here. The OEX is near the support of the steepest ascending trendline within the triangle formation. In addition, the lowest support of the symmetrical triangle is currently near 541.75. That's going to make the hold-or-sell decision for bearish player difficult because recently, the strongest support below 547 has been in the 532 level. Trading is known to become volatile when these triangles narrow toward an apex. The OEX is oversold on a short-term basis, but it's been in breakout mode today, so we can't trust those short-term oscillators to give us clear upside signals. Trading could get wild the next day or so as the OEX begins to zoom from support to resistance. That doesn't always happen. We can all recount cases when prices just issue out the apex of the triangle, but that's one tendency.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  3:35:37 PM
EBAY: A reader writes about EBAY, asking for suggestions on support and resistance levels, and also commenting that he's hearing rumors that EBAY may split. Jim may have more information about the possibility of a split than I do, as I know that's a stock that he follows closely. However, I'm glad to take a look at resistance and support levels I see as long as it's understood that I'm basing everything I say on the technicals only. First, I wanted to start with the P&F chart. That chart shows an upside target of $120 for EBAY. Although as Mark P. pointed out in a recent article, we can't take P&F charts as gospel, that still gives us a basis for looking at EBAY. What about the bar chart? I started with the monthly chart, and what I noticed was a huge run-up this last month, without volume running up along with the price. Uh-oh. That sounds a slight warning. Here's what I see on a daily chart: Link The P&F chart suggests that we're looking for pullback entries on which to go long rather than bearish entries, and I think I remember Jim cautioning a reader against shorting EBAY recently, too. In addition, those breakout signals on the daily and weekly Keltner charts show a vulnerability to a pullback, but since they could also be valid breakout signals, it would be dangerous to assume that vulnerability will result in that pullback. Rather it warns bullish traders to begin measures to protect profits. The charts suggest a possibility that EBAY may pull back or consolidate, but they don't yet indicate that's a probability, at least in my opinion. If I were looking for an opportunity to go long, I'd want a pullback to that rising trendline.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  3:18:24 PM
The 3:15 PM update is posted. Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  3:16:51 PM
Dateline WSJ Is Google going Dutch?

Wall Street is rife with speculation that the Internet-search firm could use an online sale known as a Dutch auction to sell its highly coveted shares once it announces its likely initial public offering this week. In a deal that could potentially value the Mountain View, Calif. company at as much as $25 billion, an online sale could make room for smaller investors to get a chunk of the hot firm and might also be a step toward redefining the way U.S. companies go public.

Google continues to keep the specifics of its plans a secret. While there is widespread speculation on Wall Street that Google will insist that at least part of the deal is sold directly to the public, it's uncertain exactly what form that sale would take if Google decides to go that route; it may opt for a traditional IPO.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  3:01:55 PM
Perhaps the 15-minute OEX Keltner charts were telling the truth when the lower support line suggested that the OEX had vulnerability down to 547.43. That supporting line has since slipped lower, down to 547.06. Bears, be careful, though, as the OEX reaches this current double-bottom level on that 15-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  2:52:30 PM
RHAT continues lower since my post this morning, headed down within its ascending regression channel. Midline support lies near $24.00, and RHAT has been finding support at the midline channel level lately. The 72-ema lies closer to the bottom of the channel, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  2:38:37 PM
As trading began yesterday, I was watching for the possibility of a H&S forming on the OEX 30-minute chart. The early morning run-up sent the OEX past the shoulder level, negating the formation. However, if that formation had completed and been confirmed by a push through the neckline, the downside target would have been near today's low or perhaps down to 448.60. Kind of seems as if that H&S was the intended formation after all, doesn't it?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  2:25:58 PM
Keltner support down to 549.43 is trying to firm, and looks firmer than it has most of the day.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  2:16:32 PM
TASR -$8.67 at $69.50

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  2:14:52 PM
hi Jane would you know the symbol for the us stocks advancing vol-declining vol thank you

Try QC:ADVDECV for all US stocks and QC:ADVDECV.NY for just the NYSE.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  2:14:14 PM
The OEX 15-minute Keltner chart shows that the OEX has vulnerability down to 547.43 currently, although that's a vulnerability and not a promise of that new low for the day.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  2:09:12 PM
The volume on Nortel Networks (NT) has not breached 258 million shares. The stock is down 26.6% to $4.15.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  2:07:58 PM
Crossing the wires this afternoon is news that the U.S. doesn't plan on moving into and patrolling Fallujah, where the military is currently fighting insurgents, until Friday.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  2:01:49 PM
Don't forget we have GDP tomorrow at 8:30. The current estimate is +5.2% compared to the last reading at +4.1%). Do we want a strong GDP with the Fed meeting on Tuesday or a low GDP to hold off any rate hike? Personally I would like to see a blowout at 6%. The Fed is going to raise rates soon anyway to support the dollar and I would rather have strong growth to support the market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  2:00:44 PM
The OEX is back at the steepest ascending trendline off the 3/24 low. That trendline provided support this morning. There's a possibility that it might not continue to do so, as the 60-minute chart shows a possibility of a "b" distribution pattern forming. We've been fooled by some of these potential "b" patterns at other times, with them breaking to the upside rather than the downside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  1:33:42 PM
Keltner support is sinking along with the OEX prices. As has been true all day, bearish OEX players should follow the OEX down with their stops, being prepared to be stopped out on a bounce, with the stop set at a level appropriate for your trading style, entry level, and other factors.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  1:28:47 PM
About 75 companies report after the close today. These are some of the most well known.

Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

LSI est = +0.05, actual =
TWX est = +0.09, actual =
WPI est = +0.51, actual =
AFCI est = +0.08, actual =
AKAM est = +0.04, actual =
CRUS est = -0.04, actual =
CNQR est = +0.02, actual =
CYTC est = +0.18, actual =
ESST est = +0.13, actual =
ESRX est = +0.88, actual =
JDSU est = -0.01, actual =
KOMG est = +0.54, actual =
MACR est = +0.15, actual =
MLNM est = -0.20, actual =
MGAM est = +0.26, actual =
OPWV est = -0.12, actual =
PHTN est = +0.09, actual =
PTEK est = +0.12, actual =
QLGC est = +0.36, actual =
RNWK est = -0.04, actual =
SONE est = -0.03, actual =
SWKS est = +0.04, actual =
SOHU est = +0.27, actual =
SRCL est = +0.40, actual =
SYMC est = +0.34, actual =
VARI est = +0.39, actual =

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  1:22:25 PM
Dateline New York Times Even as the prospect of high-skilled American jobs moving to low-wage countries like India ignites hot political debate, some entrepreneurs are finding that India's vaunted high-technology work force is not always as effective as advertised.

"For three years we tried all kinds of models, but nothing has worked so far," said the co-founder and chief technology officer of Storability Software in Southborough, Mass. After trying to reduce costs by contracting out software programming tasks to India, Storability brought back most of the work to the United States, where it costs four times as much, and hired more programmers here. The "depth of knowledge in the area we want to build software is not good enough" among Indian programmers, the executive said.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  1:12:54 PM
That Keltner and intraday historical resistance near OEX 551 proved too strong for the OEX, but now gathering Keltner lines down to 550.21 may provide support.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  1:05:17 PM
The 1:00 PM ET update is posted: Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  1:01:43 PM
June Gold is down to 385 and this is why SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures took their biggest hit since January falling as much as $15 an ounce to their lowest level in six months as investors feared that new rules in China, promoting reduced bank lending, will slacken demand from the Asian country. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  12:56:33 PM
The OEX is getting tangled up in Keltner Channel lines as it faces 551 intraday resistance. If it can pull free, next Keltner resistance is at 551.57 and then at 552.75.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  12:49:17 PM
Today's 44-cent drop in MBG is potentially bad news. The stock is listed as a call on OI but we have not yet been triggered to go long. Today's move under support at $60.00 and its simple 21-dma is not encouraging.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  12:45:57 PM
OI put play COF is down another 2.32% and under-performing its brethren in the financial sector.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  12:44:58 PM
RHAT is a stock that's been in the news today, with the news that it's continuing its relationship with SY. It also presented at a Smith Barney Citigroup conference today. A glance at the daily chart shows the stock declining today after yesterday's small-bodied candle that hung near the top of the previous day's big gains. We all recognize the combination as a potentially bearish one. I notice something else when looking at RHAT's chart: that 72-ema also looks correlative to S/R points for RHAT over the last year. Now RHAT has moved further away from that MA than it usually travels, suggesting that RHAT is overbought on that basis. Link That suggests that it may be time for the stock to retreat back to that MA or else to trade sideways while the MA catches up to the current price. The approach to the top of the ascending regression channel (although not as close an approach as it's made other times) also suggests that upside may be limited for the time being and that it may be time for RHAT to move back to touch lower channel support or perhaps only mid-channel support. Some daily oscillators (not shown) have been signaling bearish divergence, hinting at that pullback or consolidation, too. It's dangerous to be too short-sighted when deciding what will happen, however, as a study of weekly and monthly charts shows that this week's high reached up to challenge the lip of a wide saucer formation, although some might argue legitimately that $20.00 was actually the breakout point. A break over $26-27 might prompt another expansion in volume, as occurred as RHAT moved toward and above $20.00, and might send the stock higher. Right now, lower or consolidation while the 72-ema catches up appear to be the best guesses, but they're guesses only.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  12:16:54 PM
Harman Intl Industries (HAR) is down 4.28% on profit taking (and general market weakness) after reporting earnings this morning. Analysts were expecting 57 cents a share and HAR reported 63 cents. This was a strong improvement from 45 cents a year ago. Revenues jumped almost 25% to $690 million, well above consensus revenue estimates. HAR's press release didn't seem very informative but that could just the normal course of business for the company.

The stock "should" have support at the $80.00 mark, which is underpinned by its simple 40 & 50-dma's.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  12:12:26 PM
ASBC has announced a 3-for-2 stock split

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  12:00:37 PM
oh my gosh! that was one funny link. $25,000 is unbelievable!!! Thanks, Jim.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  11:57:58 AM
Is the OEX finding short-term support here? Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:56:21 AM
The selling is getting progressively worse.

Biggest Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -5.5%
BTK biotech index: -2.64%
GSO software index: -2.32%
INX Internet index: -2.33%
XBD broker-dealers: -2.25%
NWX networking index: -2.12%
DDX disk drives: -2.16%

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  11:54:18 AM
Need a laugh today? Try this link but you must read the entire thing. It was featured on the Today show this morning. Link

Also here is another link that is a must read: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  11:34:59 AM
The OEX 2-minute chart shows a 6-minute hesitation near 559.30-559.60. That's all the hesitation that supposedly important support level merited. That same two-minute chart shows tentative price/CCI and price/RSI bullish divergence. Similar bullish divergence on the Russell 2000 didn't mean much earlier today and this may not, either, but I mention it in an effort to be helpful to bears making decisions about lowering stops.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:33:57 AM
Better than expected earnings from Anheuser Busch (BUD) were not enough to lift shares this morning. The stock is down 1.78% even though BUD beat Wall Street's numbers by 3 cents on higher than expected revenues. Bud's CEO says they are confident in reaching its 12% growth target for 2004 and its long-term goal of double-digit growth.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  11:29:23 AM
I've mentioned the 72-ema on the OEX a couple of times today. For those who are new readers, this is rather an odd moving average to be watching. I discovered it by mistake when I misread one of Jonathan's posts about a 72-sma he was using on intraday charts to simulate a daily average. I transposed it to a 72-ema that I tested on my daily charts. When I did, I found some amazing results. Some indices and specific stocks seemed to have trading patterns that showed a strong correlation with that average. The OEX is one. A specific stock that shows that correlation is SIRI, and today SIRI is testing that average again. Link This time, oscillators (not shown) show the possibility of more downside to go and the last bounce was into a lower high. I'm not as certain that SIRI will bounce this time or bounce as strongly. It's been in a downtrend since early April. It's hitting the downside support on that descending regression channel as I type. That means SIRI is at a make-or-break point today, with a downside break out of that channel and below the 72-ema (particularly a close below it) signifying a change in trend, while a bounce would preserve the trend. SIRI will face upside resistance from that channel at about $3.70, so will not break out to the upside until above that point, confirmed by a move above gap resistance at $3.80.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:29:10 AM
Smith Barney also cut Micron Technology (MU) to a "sell".

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:28:39 AM
MHP continues to climb and is hitting new all-time highs boosted by its second upgrade of the day. This one from Smith Barney to a "buy".

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:27:27 AM
Crude oil gapped a bit lower this morning but is quickly rebounding higher and back to $37.40 a barrel.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:23:56 AM
ahah! Jim's comments about China are the most likely culprit for the drop in copper. (see his comments in the Futures side)

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  11:22:46 AM
Jeff is on vacation and will be back on Monday

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:15:55 AM
Ouch! Barr Pharma (BRL) is down 5.33% and breaking major support at $45.00 after reporting earnings this morning of 58 cents per share, a penny ahead of estimates. Revenues rose almost 87% to $321.1 million but that was still below analysts' estimates.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  11:13:50 AM
At about 549.50, an area of known historical S/R, the OEX will hit a short-term rising trendline off the 3/24 low. You guessed it: that's another potential bounce point.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:09:52 AM
One of the bright spots in the Dow Industrials is McDonalds (MCD). The stock is up almost 2% after reporting earnings last night that were in-line with expectations. Of course the company had pre-announced stronger earnings back on April 13th so there was little room for a surprise. That hasn't stopped PiperJaffray from upgrading MCD to "out perform". Traders following the burger chain can look for shares to breakout over resistance at $28.00 and its 50-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:04:56 AM
Speaking of splits...ASD shareholders will vote to approve the previously announced 3-for-1 split at their May 4th annual shareholder meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  11:03:59 AM
This morning, the OEX signaled a breakout on the five-minute nested Keltner channels. As I suggested then, it's a time for the OEX bears to begin following the OEX lower with their stops, as the OEX is now vulnerable to a bounce up to mid-channel resistance. However, such a breakout can be a valid signal, so it's not necessarily a time to exit plays or to enter the other direction. Still, guard profits as the OEX is right in the middle of that narrowing triangle, and I've known prices to zoom from one side and back of such narrowing triangles.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  11:03:12 AM
TASR - Reminder to all the Taser traders the 2:1 split occurs after the close of trading tomorrow. Friday will be the first day at the new price. Those holding options will see their strike prices cut in half and contracts doubled. Unfortunately premiums will likely drop even more. The stock split will reduce volatility and that will be seen in the option prices immediately. I would suggest anyone with decent profits lock in those profits before tomorrows close.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  11:02:24 AM
The 11:00 AM ET update is posted: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:58:42 AM
The OEX retest of the 72-ema didn't last long, with the OEX falling and reaching a new low.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  10:56:43 AM
GE is set to rake in about $3.34 billion with its Genworth IPO. They are going to issus 145 million shares at $21-$23 per share. The spin off of their slow growing insurance business is supposed to help them reach double digit growth in their remaining divisions by year end. A couple billion here, couple billion there and eventually you end up with a lot of money.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:51:02 AM
Remember earlier this morning when I mentioned that the OEX had a tendency to bounce back above the 72-ema, leaving only candle shadows below it, suggesting that the OEX might be getting ready to move back above that average or to move high enough to retest the 30-, 60-, and 120-minute 100/130-pma's? Here's how the OEX looks with respect to that 72-ema as I type: Link Note that I'm not suggesting that the bounce back above this moving average suggests that the OEX will continue to climb. This break below that average was just expected to produce a bounce back to test it, at least on the short term.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:39:18 AM
Sometimes consolidation patterns form about halfway through a move. I placed a retracement bracket on the move from yesterday's late-afternoon high, just before the OEX plunged, to this morning's low. When I did, I found that the 50% level lay just above 555, just at the late-afternoon support as the OEX was forming that consolidation pattern at the end of the day. What does that mean? If that late-day consolidation pattern was forming at the 50% point of a bigger move, then this morning's low fulfilled the expected downside target. Does that mean we won't get any more downside? No. It does mean that it might be time for a bounce. The OEX is just having difficulty getting that bounce started. Still, bears should guard profits.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:30:22 AM
A new Washington Post article says

The United States is preparing to significantly raise its estimate of the number of nuclear weapons held by North Korea, from "possibly two" to at least eight, according to U.S. officials involved in the preparation of the report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:29:01 AM
OEX 551.99 turns out to be the 50% retracement of the decline from the 3/05 high to the 3/24 low, lending more importance to the OEX's current position. It's trying to reclaim that 50% retracement level as well as the 72-ema I often watch on the daily chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:25:33 AM
On the Russell 2000 five-minute chart, RSI shows bullish divergence (lower price low with higher oscillator low), but neither MACD nor stochastics shows that same bullish divergence. Each of those has reached a lower low along with price. Still, RSI could be signaling that the bear flag that's trying to form on the Russell might bounce prices higher over the short term. Of course, RSI could reverse and reach a new low along with this morning's new price low, and erase that bullish divergence.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:24:52 AM
Oil refiner Valero Energy (VLO) is near new all-time highs after reporting earnings this morning. Analysts were looking for $1.75 per share. VLO reported $1.82.

Looking over VLO's press release unveils some interesting commments, "Our first quarter results were outstanding, especially given the fact that four of our refineries were down during the quarter for significant turnarounds," said Bill Greehey, Valero's Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. "We found out last week that we will be added to the S&P 500 Index at the close of business today, which is a testament to the growth and returns that we have delivered to our shareholders."

However, the really interesting comments were near the bottom of the release. VLO says that Wall Street's estimates are TOO LOW.

"For the second quarter, the current First Call consensus estimate is $1.83 per share, which is in line with what we earned in the first quarter. Second quarter estimates do not reflect the significantly improved margin environment as compared to the first quarter....
Valero would earn well over $3.00 per share in the second quarter, which is more than $1 per share higher than the current First Call consensus estimate"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:21:57 AM
It doesn't appear that we have any IPO's today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/28/200,  10:21:07 AM
SYMC is getting crushed on the Network Associates news. It is now down to $47.70 from its $50.88 52-week high yesterday. SYMC has earnings tonight and the NET earnings miss is creating a real fear factor. I see support at $47 and a buying opportunity once their earnings are out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:19:27 AM
The OEX two-minute chart is showing that the OEX is trying to coalesce into a bear-flag formation, but it isn't much of a flag, so far.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:16:52 AM
With close to a 50% decline from its January highs near $31 shares of Emulex Corp (ELX) are up 2.5% to $16.82 after Legg Mason upgraded the stock to a "buy". No details were available but I would assume it was on valuation.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:13:44 AM
Celgene Corp (CELG) is down sharply (11%) to $51.90 after announcing this morning that the company will halt its late-stage trials for melanoma using Revlimid. The company still plans to develop Revlimid for other treatments but found it ineffective against melanoma. (source: Reuters).

Fortunately for shareholders the stock is up off its morning lows at $45.00.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:09:07 AM
Nortel Networks (NT) is down 28% to $4.05 on huge volume of 93.8 million shares within the first 45 minutes of trading. Average daily volume is close to 49 million.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:08:33 AM
CSFB has upgraded Mcgraw Hill (MHP) to "out perform" after yesterday's earnings report. The stock surged strongly yesterday but failed at resistance of $80.00. Bulls are trying again today with a rebound from $79 and the stock is just now breaking out over the $80 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:07:08 AM
Thanks, Jane, for your information, too. Not only do we have the most talented and helpful readers, but our writers are interested in helping out, too.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  10:03:15 AM
Guitar Center Inc (GTRC) is one of today's big winners with a 10.3% gain to $40.47 after reporting earnings last night. Quarterly profits more than doubled to 46 cents per share, up from 22 cents a year ago and 14 cents above estimates! Wedbush Morgan raised the stock from a "hold" to a "buy" and raised its price target to $44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  10:02:03 AM
Jeff's 5MRT Method: I knew our readers would come through. Thanks, jd, for the information that Jeff's article was found in the "Ask the Analyst" column on September 21, 2003. With that help, I was able to find the link: Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  10:01:32 AM
Linda here are some articles.

Link Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  9:55:11 AM
One of our readers has asked for background information on Jeff's 5MRT system. Since Jeff is out of town, he can't answer the question, but I wanted the information to come from the original source, as Jeff sometimes refers to specific colors for retracement brackets for bullish plays and for bearish ones. I searched the archives last night for over an hour looking for Jeff's original article and couldn't find it. If any readers remember where that information was first presented, will you email me with the information and I'll post the link here for the benefit of other readers who might have missed the information.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  9:54:44 AM
Looking at the effects of the steep sell-off in copper... Phelps Dodge (PD) has gapped down and trading at $66.25 (-3.81%). The stock hit support at $65.00 early this morning. I'd be very careful about considering any new shorts since the $65.00 level should be decent support alone but this time it's bolstered by its simple 200-dma. Now if PD fills the gap from this morning and begins to fade again... well then nimble traders might have another go at scalping a few points. Just be careful!

The company reported earnings this morning of $2.01 per share versus estimates at $1.78 per share. Everyone knew that the huge jump in copper prices last quarter was going to boost earnings but no one knew to what extent. Revenues soared more than 60% to $1.6 billion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  9:48:13 AM
The 72-ema that I frequently watch on the OEX daily chart is at 552.21, with the OEX currently slipping below it. Often the OEX's trade shows some correlation with this average, with many daily highs lows, opens, or closes at this moving average over the last year. However, on 4/20 and 4/22 last week, the OEX slipped through it, so it may no longer have as much correlation. Still, on four other recent days, prices slipped through this MA, but rebounded so that the candle bodies formed just above it and only the candle shadows pierced it. Where is this going? I'm suggesting that the OEX could again attempt to rebound, enough to test this average or the 30-, 60-, or 120-minute 100/130-pma's, a little higher. I would consider such a bounce to probably be a countertrend bounce, as the OEX is probably headed down to test the support on the symmetrical triangle on its daily chart, but as such triangles narrow toward their apex, as this one is doing, trading becomes more volatile. Anything goes. Protect profits.

 
 
  James Brown   4/28/200,  9:48:09 AM
Sector update...

Winners:
DJUSHB homebuilders: +2.06%

(biggest) Losers:
XAU gold & silver: -2.74%
DDX disk drives: -2.02%
NWX networking: -1.84%
GSO software: -1.79% INX Internets: -1.69%
CYC cyclicals: -1.17%
OSX oil services: -1.22%
BTK biotech index: -1.23%
DRG drug index: -1.26%

also noteworthy...Copper: -5.66%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  9:37:55 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 554.96 to 553.42. Bears should begin following the OEX lower with their stops since Keltner channels are signaling a downside breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  9:34:15 AM
The OEX opened below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and has since dropped below the 60- and 120-minute versions. It's dropping straight to lower Keltner channel support. That means that we should expect at least a tepid bounce attempt at the first reversal that usually begins in about 8 or 9 minutes from now, perhaps up to retest those important MA's.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  9:24:10 AM
Comcast has dropped its $47.9 billion bid for Walt Disney stating that Disney is uninterested in making the deal a success.

 
 
  Jane Fox   4/28/200,  9:19:39 AM
Dateline WSJ Nortel Networks Corp. fired its chief executive, chief financial officer and controller and said it will delay the release of its first-quarter results.

The Brampton, Ontario, company, currently under investigation by U.S. and Canadian securities regulators, also said it will need to restate the financial results reported in each of its quarterly periods of 2003 and for earlier periods including 2002 and 2001.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  9:14:06 AM
Below mid-channel support on the five-minute nested Keltner channels and above mid-channel support on the fifteen-minute version, below the 50-dma and above the 100-dma, smack in the middle of the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart: these phrases describe the OEX's position as trading begins today. Entering a trade as that triangle narrows toward its apex is a risky business for position or swing traders. Yesterday's trading pattern confirmed the importance of the 559.50-560 resistance zone and also confirmed that we should be watching the upper trendline that began forming in February rather than the shorter-term and steeper one that began forming in March. An upside breakout would occur on a move above yesterday's high and a downside breakdown would occur on a move below 548.50. Until then, guessing direction is a risky business suitable only for daytrading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/28/200,  7:15:55 AM
Good morning. For the first time since last Thursday, the Nikkei dipped below 12,000 in early trading on Wednesday. It spent most of the afternoon session below 12,000, but squeaked out a close above that level. It closed down 40.59 points or 0.34%, at 12,004.29. Volume was light ahead of tomorrow's and then next week's holidays. Economic reports had shown that March's industrial production had risen 0.1%, less than the 0.7% gain that was the median forecast according to Bloomberg. Japanese manufacturers said that they expected stronger growth for April, with a 5.6% rise projected by the government. The Bank of Japan met, leaving monetary policy unchanged. Japan's Financial Services Agency revealed the results of its special audit, with banks' recent actions encouraging some to believe that they've advanced their efforts to clean up bad debt.

Banks rose as a result. After the close, UFJ Holdings revealed the effects of those efforts to clean up bad debt in one of its units, UFJ Bank, downgrading the net income estimate for the bank in a move that was anticipated. Many techs traded lower, with Sony and Toshiba being particularly hard hit after the companies' earnings reports disappointed. In addition, Sony announced that it would bid for MGM in a deal that had been rumored to be in the works. The acquiring company often declines. In other stock-specific news, Toshiba forecast slower growth. Honda declined 0.9% after the company disappointed in its full-year net income.

Trading proved mixed in other Asian bourses, but more bourses closed lower than higher. The day after Taiwan Semiconductor reported earnings, it dropped 2.4%, perhaps contributing to the Taiwan Weighted's 1.08% decline. South Korea's Kospi lost 1.49% and Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.31%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was one of the few Asian bourses that held onto some gains, climbing 0.09%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.31%.

Most European bourses currently trade lower. In the U.K., losses in Unilever and insurer Legal & General hit hard, and were only partially offset by gains in BP and retailer Dixon's. Unilever's disappointing sales growth impacted other European bourses, as did Siemens' revelation that 2004's goals for its Transportation Systems division might prove challenging to meet and that it might take more charges in that division. A French newspaper had also speculated that Siemens was in talks with the French government about forming an alliance with Alstom, a report that Alstom later denied. Other stocks reacted to earnings news, including Dutch chemicals group DSM, rising strongly and raising its sector, too, after reporting higher-than-expected Q1 operating profit. French car maker Renault was flat in early trading, however, after its earnings report.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has declined 18.90 points or 0.41%, to 4556.80. The CAC 40 has fallen 24.24 points or 0.64%, to 3757.85. The DAX has fallen 22.93 points or 0.55%, to 4111.17.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/27/200,  8:06:32 PM
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