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  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  9:00:15 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  5:39:19 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  5:19:40 PM
Reader Question about AU: This play was triggered this morning, then proceeded to head south. Do you think that this is a good time to buy on the dip or perhaps wait for the trigger to be tripped again?

Response: While I wasn't part of the pick team that chose this play, your request was forwarded to me. That's actually to your benefit because you get two viewpoints, that in the original OI play's description and mine. As you know if you've been watching my posts, I tend to be cautious, so you can factor that information in as you're deciding how much weight to give my input versus that of the original play write-up. I apologize for the late answer, but this forwarded email reached me only after the market closed.

I see one caution when studying AU's weekly chart. AU has a sort of lopsided H&S formation on that weekly chart, with an ascending trendline, and with the H&S forming beginning last summer and through the early months of this year. That means it's a big one, formed over a long period, and so it should be consequential. It was confirmed earlier this month, setting up a $27 downside target. That downside target is near the 200-week moving average, so it has some validity from that viewpoint, as that should be a spot where AU should find support, if it reaches that low. The weekly MACD is bearish, with the lines just moving through the signal line and the histogram growing more negative the last several weeks. So far, the weekly chart shows some possible price/MACD bullish divergence, however, although a strong dip in price would erase that divergence. Weekly stochastics and RSI are trying to hook up, however, suggesting that it's trying to steady ahead of $30.00 and turn up again, but trying to do so without having yet met that downside target of that H&S formation, leaving me to question whether it might have some vulnerability to further downside.

One target that has been met, however, is the P&F downside target, a fact that was mentioned in the original write-up, I believe. So is AU ready to bounce? Maybe, and maybe not. The MACD histogram grows less negative on the daily chart. RSI has hooked up, but it hasn't driven through the signal line yet, so it's not yet committed to the upside, but hinting at possible upside. One troubling aspect of the climb since the mid-week low last week is that volume has been dropping as prices climbed, and that's consistent with the idea of a bear-flag climb. Another troubling factor to me is the impact that the FOMC decision and China's decision this week might have on gold and gold miners. I just don't know what decisions might be made, and so am of course uncertain of the impact. AU looks as if it's ready for a bigger oversold bounce, but right now, I personally can't be sure that any bounce would be more than that, and would think there's vulnerability down to $27.00.

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  4:06:04 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

XL est = +2.20, actual = N/A
DSS est = -0.01, actual = +0.01
MET est = +0.75, actual = +0.78
PFG est = +0.65, actual = +0.69
AVNX est = -0.20, actual = -0.29
CEPH est = +0.29, actual = +0.33
CMLS est = -0.01, actual = -0.03
ESPD est = +0.18, actual = +0.19
GHCI est = +0.30, actual = N/a
ICOS est = -1.40, actual = -1.36
MVSN est = +0.14, actual = +0.21
PDII est = +0.34, actual = N/A
PCLN est = +0.08, actual = +0.13

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  4:00:20 PM
The OEX couldn't quite make it back up to 547 this afternoon, but it did almost make it back to the Keltner resistance line that has been turning it back. It's showing tentative bearish divergence on a Keltner channel basis, however, but by tomorrow morning, I imagine the battle of fear-of-the-Fed vs. oversold pressure will take precedence over anything these charts are showing.

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  3:56:06 PM
SEBL - Tom Seibel is stepping down as CEO.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  3:55:21 PM
Cancel swing trade short alert for the QQQ (profiled for trade at $34.94) from 15:25:30 post.

Will wait until tomorrow, but preliminary DAILY pivot calulation, and current level of trade defines a range from $34.92-$35.55 for tomorrow's session ahead of FOMC.

QQQ $35.25 +1.38% here.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  3:41:03 PM
It was the end of February when the OEX hit the 200-week moving average, and it's been turning down ever since. The pullback could be in the form of a bull flag, but it's not taking a shape that looks exactly like a bull flag, at least not yet. I know from some of the sources I was reading that many were watching that 200-week MA on various stocks and indices, feeling that selling at that point would be a good idea. That average is currently at 565.93. Another point that makes me question whether that's a bull flag comes from my study of the weekly Keltner channels. About that time, I began posting information that the OEX was then touching a Keltner resistance line that it hadn't touched since March 2000, struck by the mention of that month again, as we all know what that month began. The trouble is that on a Keltner chart basis (derived from the position of the various channels in respect to each other), the OEX was showing bearish divergence as it touched that Keltner line for the first time since March 2000. So, is that a bull flag on the weekly chart? Only time will tell, and I don't consider this evidence definitive, but it certainly warns us to pay attention just as the possibility of that being a bull flag warns us to pay attention to an upside break above the descending trendline. I've been thinking that markets will likely chop around much of this year, so I'm not pessimistic yet, but just watching.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  3:31:22 PM
Genta Inc. (GNTA) $4.80 -44% ... released for trade. (see 14:22:10)

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  3:25:30 PM
Swing trade short alert ... for QQQ $35.00 +0.66% on downside trade at $34.94. Stop at $35.45 to begin, with initial target at $34.00.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  3:14:40 PM
For three days, the BIX has been trying to find support after touching its 200-dma and climb within its rising regression channel, but it's slipped back toward the low of the day each of those days except today. Perhaps it's going to try to rise within that channel now. As I mentioned last week, however, that regression channel is taking it right up to test the neckline of the big H&S formed on its daily chart. Here's a chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  3:08:45 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  3:06:20 PM
About 30 companies report after the close today. These are some of the most well known.

Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

XL est = +2.20, actual =
DSS est = -0.01, actual =
MET est = +0.75, actual =
PFG est = +0.65, actual =
SRA est = +0.35, actual =
AVNX est = -0.20, actual =
CEPH est = +0.29, actual =
CMLS est = -0.01, actual =
ESPD est = +0.18, actual =
GHCI est = +0.30, actual =
ICOS est = -1.40, actual =
MVSN est = +0.14, actual =
PDII est = +0.34, actual =
PCLN est = +0.08, actual =

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  3:00:30 PM
Now the OEX is slipping beneath the 61.8% retracement of the climb off the Friday afternoon low. Standard technical analysis suggests that if prices retracement more than 2/3 of a move, they're probably going to retrace the whole move, so the OEX needs to find some traction here and move up. It's teetering on the edge of a decline to retest that low.

Early this morning, I said that if someone pinned me down and forced me to pick a direction for the OEX, I'd guess that it would move up to test 547 and maybe even 549-551, but that was supposing I thought trade would be directional, and I wasn't so sure of that. It looks as if I--unfortunately for all of us--sort of got it right on both counts. It did trade up to 547 and it hasn't really been directional. It's just sort of wandering around.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  2:52:18 PM
QQQ $35.02 +0.54% ... here's updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Looking vulnerable to at least $34.00 should overlapping $34.98-$35.00 support give way. Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  2:40:38 PM
Is DD getting ready to change its trading pattern? For many years, DD has tended to establish 10-point trading ranges, more or less. They aren't always the same range: for most of 2000, it traded mostly from $40-50; but after some zooming around in 2001, it established a $35-45 range and held that approximate range for the most part since then, with some brief violations. While holding in that range, DD has begun establishing over the last year a pattern of higher lows. If the top range had also stayed horizontal, that would be a setup for a potential bullish right triangle, and that may be exactly what it is. The trouble is that the top trendline has begun to also take on a slightly rising aspect, turning this into a rising wedge, and that's not so bullish. That may only mean that DD is getting ready to head down again and re-establish that 10-point range by taking another trip down to $35.00. Or perhaps we should just lop off some of those upper shadows on some of the swing highs this last year and consider that top trendline flat and watch for an upside breakout.

DD is hugging its 200-dma today and the outcome of this test may tell us much, although it's possible that we won't know the outcome of that test until tomorrow. A break below the current day's low may suggest that DD is going to head down to test the ascending trendline below those higher lows, with that trendline currently at $41.59. A break above the short-term descending trendline off the February high, with that trendline at $45.00, should send DD up to test the top resistance line of the wedge shape, currently at about $46.50. A break above that will lay to rest the bearish-rising-wedge theory and constitute an upside breakout. In any case, DD is now in the middle of that big year-long pattern, and the middle is no place to initiate a new position. Look for a breakout one direction or the other.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  2:22:10 PM
Genta Inc. (GNTA) $8.60 ... remains halted after FDA panel rejected its cancer drug by a 13 to 3 vote. I haven't seen any news on when it might be released for trade.

From what I'm reading, industry analysts don't see the ruling as being "the end" for Genta (GNTA) or its Genasense drug, which failed to work unequivocally with skin cancer, as further testing may still hold hope for other diseases. However, the FDA panels vote for skin cancer treatment dampened hopes that the drug might be a blockbuster.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  2:17:17 PM
After retracing slightly more than 50% of the rally off the late-Friday low, the OEX is climbing again, breaking above the pattern of lower highs. It's above mid-channel Keltner resistance again, heading again toward the Keltner resistance that stopped it this morning, at 545.98 now.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  2:16:09 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  2:13:47 PM
The COMPX is so far printing an inside day today. That's just what you'd expect ahead of the FOMC meeting, isn't it, although I caution that the day is far from over. It's just above the 200-sma, which as Jim commented Friday is the most-watched of the 200-dma's. Friday, the COMPX closed above the 200-ema, an average I watch closely with the tech-related indices.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  2:09:21 PM
Perhaps Jeff has already mentioned the BIX today, but it continues its climb from above the 200-dma. However, it's climbing right into a river of moving averages slanting toward it and beginning less than 2 points above the current BIX position at 336.11. In addition, that current rise could well be a bear flag rising off the mid-April low. The 50- and 100-dma's are close to joining up, currently at 345.27 and 344.38, and I wouldn't consider the BIX to be performing strongly until it could climb successfully above those averages.

  Jane Fox   5/3/2004,  1:59:12 PM
Dateline WSJ Global Crossing Ltd.'s stock may be delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market, less than four months after shares of the telecommunications-services provider began trading publicly again.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/3/2004,  1:57:16 PM
Text of the Google letter to shareholders: Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  1:48:07 PM
The OEX is trying to steady at the do-or-die Keltner support that would maintain the equilibrium position on the five-minute charts.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  1:47:12 PM
Cancel day trade long alert .... for Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.20 -0.38% ....

SOX.X 440.75 -0.62% ...

Weaker than the coffee they were serving at the greasy spoon in St. Francis, KS

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  1:33:03 PM
The OEX did finally meet the downside target of that regular H&S from this morning. This is the five-minute formation that never formed a right shoulder before dropping through the neckline this morning. Next Keltner support is at 543.86. If the OEX can't hold that support, although a little leeway should be given, especially as we approach the stop-running time of day, then it's not likely to be able to maintain that equilibrium position on its Keltner charts.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  1:24:02 PM
The potential reverse H&S failed after another test of the neckline, with that failure sending the OEX down to test the "head" level as I type, negating the possible formation. To sum up, this morning we've had a potential regular H&S that didn't pause long enough to form a right shoulder, but instead broke below the neckline. That didn't quite reach the downside 544.50 target that would have been projected if the formation had been completed, at least not yet. Then, the OEX tried a more bullish posture, forming a potential reverse H&S that failed at its neckline, sending the OEX down to test its 12:20 low. On balance, that's more bearish than bullish and the test of the mid-channel Keltner resistance may have relieved enough oversold pressure to allow the OEX to fall again. For now, though, I'm not reading too much into the OEX action on this five-minute chart, and am wondering if we're not seeing the beginnings of the OEX's efforts to settle into that equilibrium position on its five-minute chart and hunker down there for a while.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  1:15:22 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  1:09:22 PM
Day trade long alert for Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.48 +1.14% ... on trade higher at $18.56, stop $18.46, target $18.85.

SOX.X 446.19 +0.62% has pulled back into its DAILY Pivot here.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  12:59:38 PM
11:56 U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Has gotten rather quiet

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  12:51:38 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 178.38 -0.22% .... sector loser now, with Utilities ($UTY.X) 309.97 -0.06% also red.

Gold Bugs got drilled again last week, near-term resistance now looks to be building just above at 185.00, with its longer-term upward trend at 160.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.75 +0.29% .... continues to find resistance at its longer-term downward trend right in here, and has for 9 sessions now. Rather tight trade last week.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  12:50:25 PM
It's a duel of competing H&S vs. reverse H&S on the OEX five-minute chart. A potential reverse H&S is now forming just under the earlier potential H&S's neckline. A classic formation would now require a pullback to 545.00-545.20 or so, a pullback that's occurring as I type, and then a push up through the neckline, a neckline that's difficult to pinpoint exactly as it's possible to draw a couple of different versions. The OEX five-minute nested Keltner channels are settling into an equilibrium position, usually a prelude to a breakout in an hour or two. Sometimes, though, the OEX can hold that equilibrium position through a day or so, and I'm wondering if that could happen now.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/3/2004,  12:43:14 PM
Did anyone read the SEC filings for Google? I saw the letter from the founders last week (will try to dig up the link). It was like a timewarp back to 1999- all kinds of New-economy-speak.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  12:42:13 PM
I spoke about that tendency of the markets to get pinned just under key resistance or just above key support ahead of a potentially market-moving event. That's true of markets other than ours, too. The DAX has been climbing since my earlier report, closing up 22.44 points or 0.56%. At 4007.65, it closed within a couple of points of last Thursday's close, and in the 4000-4014 zone that has often marked opens, closes, highs, or lows recently. Also, the CAC 40 zoomed up to next resistance, closing up 31.20 points or 0.85%, to 3705.48.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  12:37:45 PM
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix at this Link

INDU/DIA traded up to WEEKLY Pivots, but found resistance selling there.

There were some bad ticks in the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) and I've made corrections to earlier WEEKLY matrix.

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  12:36:02 PM
James is on vacation this week. He is on his way to Hawaii to visit friends. I am very jealous.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  12:23:41 PM
The OEX decline is looking less like a broadening of the bearish rising wedge into a respectable rising regression channel and more like a breakout out of . . . a bearish rising wedge. They're usually precipitous. Again, don't read too much into what's happening on a five-minute chart on a day like today. Light volume tends to exaggerate the moves.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  12:19:23 PM
If James were here today, he'd be giving us an update on how the various sectors were doing. As I look at my sector list, I see a lot of green. Sectors that are higher by 1% or more include the Airline Index, up 2.5% as I type; the TRAN, up 1%; the Dow Jones US Homebuilders; up 1.28%; and the SOX, up 1.52%. That's not an exhaustive list, but a quick look at various sectors. The BKX gains only .30% and the HUI, only 0.22%.

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  12:11:55 PM
UNTD - jumped +1.44 this morning after posting higher profits. It also raised estimates for the year. The company added +400,000 subscribers in the quarter. UNTD owns NetZero and Juno.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  12:10:12 PM
I agree with Francis' comment on the Futures Monitor that markets can be range-bound and dull before an important market-moving event such as the FOMC meeting. I'm making comments about what I see on the chart, but I urge you not to give too much credence to each little development. As my comments have indicated all day, I'm not sure that markets will be directional all day, and think there's a possibility that they'll get maneuvered either just under/at important resistance or just over/at important support. Having the OEX Keltner channels settle into an equilibrium position with the OEX near that mid-channel support would fit that scenario, but so would a continued bounce up to either 547 or 549.50-551 or a drop back toward 540-542. This is a particularly troublesome tendency for those of us on the options side of the Monitor, because premium starts declining as the volatility does, and then you're left with an option with premium that's already evaporated somewhat, just ahead of a market-moving event that could send the underlying the wrong direction.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  12:08:31 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Haven't tabulated all of last week's internals, but sure looks like things got turned inside-out at the NASDAQ while I was gone. NH/NL indications now inverse like the NYSE had been. I also see that some of the various bullish % either fell, or reversed back lower too.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:57:23 AM
Increasingly lately when we see a potential H&S or reverse H&S set up on charts from intraday to longer-term, prices fall through the neckline without ever fully forming that right shoulder. That just happened with the OEX setting up that potential H&S on the five-minute chart. After a single five-minute candle that bounced, the OEX fell through the neckline, although it hasn't yet met the 544.50-ish downside target that would have been projected. I believe this failure to form a right shoulder might be a function of greater awareness of technical analysis, but also might be a function of the underlying mood of the market. Last year, we'd see these setups result in a zoom up above the head level, but this year we're seeing these breakdowns before the formation can complete.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  11:52:33 AM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.57 +1.64% .... off session highs after trading BLUE #3. Here's intra-day chart I'm monitoring with 5-MRT. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  11:39:10 AM
U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Not getting an updated data feed for the Wilshire 5000 at this point.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:35:26 AM
If the OEX bounces from the current 545.86 level or from closer to 545.65, watch for the possibility of a H&S forming on the OEX five-minute chart. A bounce to the 546.50 level or below and a rollover and move below 545.60 would confirm a H&S. A move above the strong 547 resistance would negate that possibility.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:28:49 AM
The OEX is either falling out of that rising bearish wedge or else is now making a true effort to widen it into a respectable ascending regression channel. We'll know soon, as the OEX descent should slow and the OEX should trade sideways if this is to be a widening exercise only. A deeper plunge will tend to confirm the bearish rising wedge theory.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:27:03 AM
By the way, I mentioned what the TRAN was doing in an earlier post, mentioning that it was trying to move higher, but that it hadn't broken above Friday's high. It's now drawing close to that 2920.34 level. Once above that, it's free to challenge the 100-dma, but each of these resistance levels could catch it and roll it down again. The TRAN has a possible reverse H&S on its daily chart, although last week's fall was deep enough that it questioned that premise, and although the P&F chart shows the TRAN with a current downside target of 2400. Depending on your bias, it's possible to take a look at the same charts and see bullish potential in that possible reverse H&S or bearish potential based the P&F chart and many other chart characteristics. Why do we care? Because the TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, is important in Dow theory, and is indicative of the strength of the economy.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:20:43 AM
As the OEX continues to push against next Keltner resistance and hold just above the mid-channel support, I'm not yet convinced that it's done enough backing and filling to broaden that rising wedge into a healthier looking ascending channel. Here it is: Link Of course, the whole point of a rising wedge is that it rises, so that doesn't preclude the OEX from continuing to rise into resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  11:05:58 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  11:01:01 AM
Here's the time when we see if the OEX broadens that rising wedge into a respectable-looking rising regression channel instead on the five-minute chart. A pullback only to 544.47-544.82, two Keltner channel support lines, and a bounce from there, would widen it appropriately.

  Jane Fox   5/3/2004,  11:00:47 AM
Dateline Bloomberg -- Crude oil futures in New York rose after five foreign workers were killed at a refinery in Saudi Arabia, raising concern terrorists may disrupt the petroleum industry in the country, which is the biggest oil exporter.

The workers, employees of Swiss engineering company ABB Ltd., were shot Saturday at a refinery run by Exxon Mobil Corp. and Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corp. in the Saudi city of Yanbu. The attack comes after an upsurge of attacks on coalition forces in neighboring Iraq, which holds the second-biggest proved reserves after Saudi Arabia.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:58:10 AM
The TRAN closed at its 50-dma Friday, and it's finding support on that MA today, with the average at 2849.92 according to Stockcharts.com and higher according to QCharts. The TRAN is back above 2900 this morning, but not yet above Friday's high or the 100-dma at 2929.83 on Stockcharts and 2930.24 on QCharts. I tend to believe Stockcharts's MA figures on the TRAN, however, as QCharts leaves out some bars on the daily chart. It's possible to see those bars by switching to a 720-minute chart, a trick Jeff suggested, but that also skews the MA's a bit. The TRAN faces historical resistance from the current 2912.96 level all the way up to that 100-dma and beyond, to 2950, so despite a daily RSI that hooks up in mid-stream and a MACD that's trying to flatten its descent above signal, it's far from clear where the TRAN is going to go. It looks as if the effort is being made to move it higher, but it's far from clear that the effort will be successful.

  Jane Fox   5/3/2004,  10:46:08 AM
Dateline WSJ ATLANTA -- The government investigation into whether Coca-Cola Co. engaged in accounting fraud is intensifying, with a federal grand jury scheduled to hear testimony from company employees later this month and securities regulators issuing subpoenas to employees for information, according to people familiar with the probe.

The growing inquiry by the U.S. government comes as Coke is already under scrutiny as it searches for a new chairman and chief executive to succeed Douglas Daft, who is retiring later this year.

The U.S. attorney's office here and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which both launched wide-ranging probes into the company last summer, are focusing on allegations that Coke shipped excessive amounts of beverage concentrate to bottlers and other distributors in Japan and North America in order to inflate its financial results in recent years. Concentrate is typically mixed with water and other ingredients to make a finished drink.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:41:06 AM
The bounce on the OEX five-minute chart is beginning to take on a bit of rising wedge look, with such rising wedges typically being considered bearish. The pullback that should come about now could broaden that formation into a better-looking ascending channel. A failure to pull back could confirm the impression that this is a bearish rising wedge, as could an immediate fall through the supporting trendline of that possible wedge.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:37:35 AM
The OEX just produced the first five-minute close above mid-channel Keltner resistance since last Tuesday and now it's trying to break free of the next Keltner resistance at 546.19. I've noted before that these Keltner resistance levels have a sort of gravity that tends to tug the prices back unless they can break free. Keltner channels suggest that the OEX may need to consolidate now or pull back, perhaps toward 545.18 or as low as 543.93 before breaking completely free of this next resistance level. A deeper pullback might put the "higher" scenario into question.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:32:18 AM
For those who might not be aware, a new computer worm, Sasser, is spreading fast. This worm seems to target those using Windows 2000 and XP, and does not require double-clicking on the attachment, one article noted. A computer hit by the worm may reboot repeatedly. It sounds as if it's time to download those new patches, if you haven't already done so.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  10:28:40 AM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.74 +2.57% .... makes its way above BLUE #2 ($18.68), might look for a day trade long on intra-day pullback to $18.52 and BLUE #1, then a target back higher by the close to $18.85.

Opening 5-minute bar was $18.36-$18.52.

SOX.X 453.13 +2.17% is just above DAILY R1 (451.41)

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:26:12 AM
The OEX approaches mid-channel Keltner resistance at 545.15. The OEX hasn't had a five-minute close above that resistance since late Tuesday afternoon of last week. Just above that lies further Keltner resistance at 545.97, however.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  10:13:14 AM
Top 25 volume and percent gain/loss at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  10:09:05 AM
The OEX 30-, 60-, and 120-minute 100/130-pma's have continued dropping, but the 30-minute versions have dropped faster than the others, of course. That's had the effect of separating them a bit, when last week, they were all clumped so tightly together that they formed a seemingly impenetrable barricade. Now, those averages range from 550.20 (the 30-minute 100-pma) to 552.69. Last week, we wouldn't have needed to worry about which version was the most important, because they were all so close together. The 30-minute might serve as our leading indicator this week, with a push above the 120-minute needed as confirmation, since the OEX sometimes trades more in accordance with that average. Although I could be surprised, I'm not expecting such a push pre-FOMC, at least.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/3/2004,  10:01:14 AM
ISM 62.4

Construction spending +1.5%- upside surprise with .5% exp.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:59:06 AM
If someone pinned me down and forced me to guess a direction for the OEX today and into tomorrow morning, my best guess would be that we'd see a test of 547 and maybe even 549.50-551, but the problem is that I'm not so sure there's going to be a direction at all. The markets like to play this little joke on us, and get pinned just under important resistance or above important support ahead of a potentially market-moving event. I'm not so sure about the results of that test, either, because the OEX could get pinned there, or could retreat to the rising trendline off the August low and get pinned there, too. So far, the OEX is still rattling around inside that big triangle, and trading is unpredictable there.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:55:17 AM
Jeff, a special welcome back to the options side of the Monitor.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:54:13 AM
Mid-channel Keltner resistance on the OEX is now at 545.27 and continuing lower, with upper-channel resistance at 550.12 and continuing lower. With historical resistance at 547 and then beginning again near 549.50, I'm wondering if upper-channel Keltner resistance will not have descended to meet one of those levels by the time the OEX gets around to testing that upper-channel level. That's supposing that the OEX can make it through mid-channel resistance and historical resistance near the current level, something I'm not yet supposing at all.

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  9:52:06 AM
Thanks Jim and yes, it looks like the equity markets took a bit of a hit last week. Where I was, I only received hourly cattle/hog/grain prices, so trying to get caught up this morning.

Welcome to Francis! It looks like the es04h (carry forward to es04m) found some resistance at that downward trend (1,140 and pink X) from your 02/05/04 futures corner article Link . I'm working to get my chart updated with some of those trends!!! (grin)

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  9:48:06 AM
Daily / Weekly Pivot Matrix at this Link

Will post full matrix after I tabulate Aprils highs/lows

  Jim Brown   5/3/2004,  9:46:06 AM
Welcome back Jeff! You missed some real excitement last week.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:39:35 AM
That first five-minute range for the OEX was from 540.88 to 543.24.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:36:09 AM
That price/RSI bullish divergence on the OEX thirty-minute chart continues, but it's going to require a move above 546.93, the last thirty-minute high, to confirm it.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  9:25:38 AM
Taking the long view: Warren Buffet was quoted in a Bloomberg.com article as saying this weekend, "I've got way more money in my pocket because of the tax change and I don't think it's a good idea."

  Jeff Bailey   5/3/2004,  9:10:49 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  8:34:23 AM
Friday, the OEX ended the day testing the ascending trendline off the August low. Logically, we could expect at least a tepid bounce attempt from that trendline and we may get one--a tepid one, that is. Futures are down from their earlier levels. Friday also ended with the 30-minute chart showing tentative bullish divergence on the stochastics, but with the MACD on the verge of making a bearish cross from below signal. That doesn't inspire great confidence in the strength of the bounce. That would fit with the idea of caution ahead of the FOMC decision and bias statement. Some also speculate that China will use this early-week holiday to announce a rate increase.

Like many, I'm on the watch for a bounce, but far from certain as to that bounce's sticking power or amplitude. As Jonathan has already noted on the futures side of the Monitor and as Jim did this weekend, we have the services ISM number to be released at 10:00, and I'd be cautious ahead of the release of any number when the markets are already jittery. Another number released this weekend that may impact trading today is the SIA's information on global semi sales for April, with that 4.4% month-over-month growth number proving greater than expected. That's providing a boost to tech stocks in Europe, and it may do so in tech stocks here, too, at least on the open. We have to see what happens after that.

The OEX is showing bullish divergence on a Keltner channel basis, too, on the five-minute chart. The OEX has traveled in the bottom half of the Keltner channels so long that, sooner or later, it's going to get slung up to upper-channel resistance, currently at 550.16, but still descending fast. Mid-channel resistance lies at 545.43, and that may be enough to stop any advances again, as it did late last week. A bounce appeared to be just beginning as the day ended Friday, but it was a tepid bounce attempt.

What happens if the OEX instead turns tail and falls through that long-term ascending trendline? I mentioned last week that I thought a failure at this trendline suggested a retest of the March low and the 200-dma, now at 533.61. A failure of a bounce attempt today might send the OEX down to test that level and get the test over with ahead of the FOMC meeting. Other indices and stocks have begun heading down to test this key average, and the OEX could soon be among them if that support fails. Trading might be light today ahead of the FOMC announcement, and light trading produces treacherous trading conditions.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  8:24:28 AM
I can't find news to explain the reaction, but the charts I'm studying show the CAC 40 shooting up since my earlier post. The intraday chart looks as if some information is missing, so I suspect that at the time of my previous post about the European markets, the feed was not up-to-date, and the CAC 40 had already turned positive at that time. It completed a nicely formed reverse H&S on that intraday chart in the first few hours of trading this morning, and has now more than exceeded the upside target. It's now testing the 3680-3690 next resistance band, with the CAC 40 up 14.36 points or 0.39%, at 3688.64.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/3/2004,  8:16:40 AM
We await the 10AM release of construction spending for March, est. .5%, and the ISM for April, est. 62.7.

  Linda Piazza   5/3/2004,  7:10:43 AM
Good morning. Japanese markets are closed until Thursday, and many other Asian markets were closed in overnight trading, too. China was one, but much of the news coming out of Asia concentrated on China and its recent measures to cool its economy and particularly the steel companies. Those measures apparently didn't discourage Anheuser-Busch, with that company announcing that it had taken a 29% position in China's Harbin Brewery Group. SABMiller already owns a 29% stake in the company. In other stock-specific news, a newspaper speculated that the EU would block the BMG-Sony alliance.

Of interest to those watching semiconductor companies was the SIA's announcement that March's global semiconductor sales had risen 4.4% from February's. The SIA called Q1 global sales "very encouraging," according to Marketwatch.com.

Here's how the results stacked up among the Asian bourses that were open Monday. The Taiwan Weighted fell 1.44%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.38%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.15%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.06%.

In trading that has been characterized as light, European bourses are mixed this morning. The FTSE 100 is closed, but the other two we watch most closely trade lower. This morning, April's eurozone PMI was released, with that figure rising more than expected to 54 from March's 53.3. The SIA's information about global semi markets helps semi stocks in Europe as the same kind of tech gains that are reportedly helping our futures also pull the European markets off their lows this morning. Top decliners in early European trading included Bayer, with that company dropping after its shares stopped qualifying for dividends. Royal Ahold was gaining after the troubled company appeared to make headway in its dealings with a Dutch shareholder group that had sought to force the company to restate accounts.

The CAC 40 has fallen 10.02 point or 0.27%, to 3664.26. The DAX has fallen 10.66 points or 0.27%, to 3974.55.

  OI Technical Staff   5/2/2004,  7:37:34 PM
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