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  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  3:59:18 PM
Swing trade bearish put alert buying 1/2 bearish position in the DIA July $100 puts (DIASV) $3.30 offer. No stop, potential downside target of $92.

PnF chart of DIA $99.36 -1.07% at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  3:12:09 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  3:03:13 PM
Exposure to India ... some comments out of Goldman Sachs and CIBC regarding declines in India and stocks listed here on U.S. exchanges with exposure to that country.

The telecom landscape may see some negative impact depending on which policies Ms. Gandhi embarks on. Telecom infrastructure could have ERICY, NOK and UTSI vulnerable.

For handset makers, CDMA technology is an emerging technology and of of the fastest growing regions for QCOM

OEM exposure in India for CDMA or GSM technology are KYO, LG, NOK and MOT

Handset chip makers with exposure to India are RMFD, TQNT, SWKS and ANAD

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  2:51:42 PM
Notable 52-week lows today ... Continental Airlines (CAL) $9.40 -3.78% Link and Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) $30.39 -2.22% Link in the airlines.

Technology names have BEAS Link , BOBJ Link , CIEN Link , EDS Link , EXTR Link , MCDT Link , NOK Link having traded new 52-weekers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  2:29:43 PM
Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 99.88 +1.40% ... gave back early session strength (99.69), but now pressing to new session high.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 180.88 +1.97% testing intra-day lows, with U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.99 -0.74% (30-minute delayed) having bounced from overnight lows of 90.51 set at 03:50 AM EDT, where those lows held support at 09:45 AM EDT. dx00y has found morning resistance right in here at WEEKLY S1 of 91.02.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  2:24:10 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  2:12:29 PM
YORK, May 17, 2004 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Standard & Poor's, the independent financial research, ratings and indices leader, today announced the launch of the S&P Equity Long/Short Index. Performance, constituents and index methodology are available on www.sp-hedgefundindex.com and by the ticker symbol SPHGELS.

The S&P Equity Long/Short Index starts with the five Equity Long/Short funds represented in the flagship S&P Hedge Fund Index, and adds 19 new funds to create a separate build-out index that is more representative of hedge funds employing this strategy

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  2:11:35 PM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $24.00 -5.28% ... technical have stock falling back below a flat 200-day SMA ($24.91). UBS made notes on Friday that Media Metrix, which tracks job site data said unique visitors at MNST's site were 20.1 million in April, up from 18.4 million in March, and that MNST's share of traffic among top 10 job sites was 34.1% in April (down 18% versus last year).

UBS said that while it believes the rapid pace of hiring growth over the past two months could enable MNST to beat Q2 consensus revenue estimates, they remain cautious on MNST because Q2 expenses could come in at the high end of expectations, weighing on the stock's current P/E multiple. UBS reiterated their "neutral" rating and price target of $26.00.

Next quarterly earnings due out 07/28/04 (unconfirmed) with consensus at $0.12 per share on revenues of $194.94 million.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  2:01:06 PM
Nasdaq and NYSE still under one billion shares for the day. Very low volume.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  1:54:18 PM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $20.86 -1.78% Link ... earlier this afternoon, Reuters reported that CSCO was investigating the possible theft of the source code that powers its networking equipment.

The Russian web site SecurityLab.ru reported on Saturday that approximately 800 megabytes of code was stolen from CSCO's corporate network.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  1:41:14 PM
Home prices in England have been rising 1000 pounds per week: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  1:31:33 PM
Hopefully, the current chop isn't a sign of things to come for the next 4.5 days of op-ex week.

 
 
  Keene Little   5/17/200,  1:29:56 PM
The gold stocks are getting a bit of a bounce today but I still can't see it as anything more than a correction to the longer-term decline. It would look better if XAU (and NEM which I've been following here) got one more stab at a minor new high to finish what looks like an a-b-c correction off the low on the 10th. Current prices for the two are 82.49 and 37.41, resp.

For this bounce off the low on the 10th, the first fib target for XAU would be 83.92, followed by a higher target of 86.63. There's a downtrend line from April 1st that would coincide closely with that higher fib number. NEM hit its first fib target of 37.76 and has a higher fib target at 38.96. It's downtrend line is also up near the higher fib number. So I'm looking for one more bounce higher but it may not be much higher. Then the EW pattern is suggesting another low before we see a bigger correction to the upside. Still looking at the possibility for NEM to hit its downside fib/H&S targets of 31.51. XAU hit its H&S target on the head at its last low of 76.79 but has a lower fib target of 73.00.

So I think we're getting close to a low in the gold stocks and maybe we'll only have a retest of the recent lows, but the bounce from the last low clearly looks corrective and therefore suggesting one more push lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  1:11:18 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

CRB Index quote is from 12:30 PM EDT.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  1:10:29 PM
A/D Volume has improved to only 4:1 in favor of down volume and much better than the 8:1 at the open but still not exciting.

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/17/200,  1:10:23 PM
Dateline WSJ With crude oil trading above $41 a barrel and terrorism fears helping to inflate the price, the U.S. has quietly continued to fill its emergency reserves to the highest level ever -- an amount experts say could be used to bring prices down.

To guard against shortages, the U.S. and other nations have a combined 1.4 billion barrels of oil stored away, as governments have been steadily adding to their stocks since the shock of Sept. 11, 2001. Experts say oil markets have ignored that supply amid fears terrorist activity could reduce Middle East oil exports. The market's apparent disregard for that safety net has some analysts questioning whether the U.S. should use the reserves -- or even just threaten to use them -- to help calm the market and signal to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that the U.S. won't tolerate actions to maintain high prices.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  1:05:16 PM
Refreshable 30-min delayed chart of the US Dollar Index: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  1:05:04 PM
01:00 U.S. Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  1:00:29 PM
NAHB Housing Market Index just announced at 69 vs 68 est

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  12:58:36 PM
Reminder - Linda is out today
 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  12:31:02 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP $80.49 +1.75% .... Announced that Dr. Colin Goddard, CEO of OSIP will present at the Bank of America Securities Healthcare Conference on Thursday, May 20, 2004 at 07:00 PM EDT. Dr. Goddard will provide an overview on the company's product portfolio and business developments.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  12:14:48 PM
Beetle's Benchmarked Fund and quick observation/comments Link

Looking at the "bond section" of the Beetle's Benchmarked, we see the shorter-dated Lehman 1-3 year (SHY) showing more fractional percentage gain. When thinking about RISK from a pure geopolitical trade, this would be LOWEST risk. Then thinking about RISK from interest rate tigthening, near-term, this would be higher risk for the shorter-dated, especially under the scenario of aggressive Fed tightening.

Now... noticing that higher grade corporates (LQD) $106.30 +0.46% seeing a bid, yet the HIGHER RISK "junk bonds" and PHF still weighed lower.

I think bond action reflects geopolitical at this point, but maybe not OVERLY negative. If OVERLY negative or fearful, then I don't hink higher grade corporate would be bidding like it is.

Will never know for sure, but I think PHF would have been STRONG bidder today and percentage gainer if Treasuries had found more modest buying and didn't get the "defensive bid" as commodity prices fell in today's session.

My thinking is if oil finds some selling despite turmoil in Middle East, then it probably would have gotten whacked pretty hard if no news/change from Middle East today. CRB would probably have fallen.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  12:12:39 PM
Speech by Fed Governor Bies
Corporate Governance and Community Banks Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  12:04:00 PM
FOX News reporting U.S. has also found an artillery shell with mustard gas payload.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  12:02:54 PM
June Light, Sweet Crude (cl04m) $40.96 -1.01% ... session high was $41.85, which achieved Dorsey/Wright's point and figure chart bullish vertical count of $41.75.

Might be seeing some futures traders lock in handsome gains, despite the "bad news" out of Iraq.

First sign of meaningful weakness on the PnF chart would be trade at $38.25 and double-bottom sell signal on this futures contract.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  11:58:24 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.21 -1.79% ... still within Friday's range ($8.11-$8.36), but lower trade with the $CRB falling, but Treasuries rallying strong, suggest to me a DEFENSIVE posture and buying in Treasuries.

My thought is (based on past commentary) is that "junk bonds" should be rebounding strong today, but their higher RISK among bonds, and current lower trade, has me interpreting a DEFENSIVE posture in bond market.

Should things change, with junk bonds turning higher, then I would begin to think equities turn up on commodity price weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  11:49:08 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  11:10:19 AM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $79.67 +0.72% ... reversing earlier losses. Breaks above last week's highs.

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 500.80 -1.06% .... off morning lows of 493.84.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  11:06:33 AM
Link for 10:58:47 post and pivot matrix should be correct.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  10:58:47 AM
Today's Pivot Matrix at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  10:53:09 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) bar chart with new WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

While strong round of buying in treasuries a near-term positive, I think it comes largely on events out of Iraq. SPX holding last weeks lows, but I don't think it has a shot at MONTHLY Pivot as market sentiment will take a hit.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  10:47:02 AM
News blurb about the Sarin bomb in Iraq: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  10:39:42 AM
Up volume finally broke 100 million across all markets. It is still 8:1 in favor of down volume.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  10:22:18 AM
Reuters now saying there was Sarin in a shell that exploded in a roadside bomb.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  10:12:14 AM
The Fed's big 9.5B overnight repo could be pure jam with which to prop equities today, or it could be there to facilitate payment in settlement of some of the bonds purchased in the treasury auctions last week. The first case would be bullish for equities and/or bonds, the second less so.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  10:08:35 AM
I can't imagine the stress any prospective Iraqi leader must be under when they leave for the office each day. Odds are very good they might not come home. Knowing every car you pass and every corner you turn could be a bomb or ambush has got to be tough.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  10:04:56 AM
Swing trade bullish stop alert QQQ $34.17

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  10:02:07 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

** Futures and Dollar quotes are 30-minute delayed, so 09:30 AM EDT quotes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  10:00:48 AM
The Fed has stepped up to the plate with a huge 9.5B overnight repo. That's a net add with no expiries today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:54:11 AM
eBay (EBAY) $78.11 -1.06% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:53:43 AM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $78.29 -1.02% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:47:59 AM
Swing trade bullish stopped alert ... bulls should be stopped out in Weyerhaeuser (WY) at $57.25.

WY $57.15 -1.87% here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:44:20 AM
QQQ bar chart with new weekly pivot retracement at this Link

Based on my NDX/SOX comments from Friday evening, I'd have to view the WEEKLY Pivots as strong resistance.

QQQ's first 5-minute bar was from $34.30 to $34.43.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  9:41:53 AM
The Fed has no repos expiring today. The announcement is due at 10AM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:37:45 AM
QQQ $34.43 -1% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:31:26 AM
Swing trade lower stop alert for the QQQ to $34.17.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:28:03 AM
QQQ trading $34.37 in pre-market, and this is well below my swing trade bullish stop of $34.60.

I'd have to assess near-term downside to the WEEKLY S1 of $34.20 as the first level to find any type of buying.

As such, I'm going to suggest bulls in the QQQ adjust to the geopolitical news, and for the early part of this morning, lower their stops to $34.18, which might buy some time for markets to stabilize, where we could move to the sidelines on any strength back near profiled stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/17/200,  9:20:27 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/17/200,  9:13:01 AM
Linda is on the road today and will not be posting. -

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/17/200,  8:46:42 AM
Dateline WSJ The head of the Iraqi Governing Council was killed Monday in a car bombing near a U.S. checkpoint in central Baghdad.

The killing was the second of a member of the U.S.-appointed council since last year and dealt a blow to U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq ahead of a handover of sovereignty to Iraqis on June 30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  8:33:27 AM
Empire State Index 30.2, April revised to 34

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/17/200,  7:59:47 AM
We await the Empire State Index for May, est. 34.8.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   5/16/200,  5:31:50 PM
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