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  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  4:02:24 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

HPQ est = +0.34, actual = +0.34 raised guidance
BGP est = +0.02, actual = +0.04
AMAT est = +0.19, actual = +0.22
ADSK est = +0.30, actual = +0.36
NTAP est = +0.12, actual = +0.12
PLAB est = +0.14, actual = +0.17

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  3:59:06 PM
Bearish day trade exit alert for the SMH $36.65 here. Came clos with afternoon low of $36.57, but running out of time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  3:22:08 PM
Day trade lower stop alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.63 +1.80% to $36.75.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  3:10:04 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  3:02:04 PM
Day trade lower stop alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.67 +1.94% to $36.84.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  2:55:13 PM
Airline Index ($XAL.X) 49.60 +2.54% ... nearing its session high of $49.66. Reuters reported that jet fuel prices fell 8 cents in L.A. spot market.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  2:54:55 PM
July crude dropped -1.08 today to end at $40.40. No reason given except for profit taking. Prices are still expected to rise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  2:37:05 PM
Advanced Fibre Comm. (AFCI) $16.93 +8.73% Link ... stock up after Verizon (VZ) $36.09 +0.86% announced this morning that it will hold a press briefing and conference call tomorrow to discuss its plans for the deployment of Fiber-to-the-home (FTTP) technologies in 11 states.

Pacific Growth made comment that it thinks this press briefing will be very positive for AFCI and that many investors still doubt VZ's intentions to fully deploy FTTP, but press conference may put those concerns to rest. Pacific Growth said it expects VZ to reiterate its goal of passing 1 million home with FTTP by the end of 2004 and will probably announce intentions to spend $1 billion in 2004 on the FTTP project.

On April 29, when Pacific Growth upgraded shares of AFCI to "overweight" from "underweight" after AFCI reported Q1 EPS of $0.09 per share, which was a penny better than consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  2:11:04 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  1:48:03 PM
Target - sees same-store sales at its namesake Target discount stores up 5 percent to 7 percent for May. For the total company, which includes its slower-growing Mervyn's and Marshall Field's department stores, it expects same-store sales up 4 percent to 6 percent.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  1:46:53 PM
MSO - According to Reuters, Martha Stewart's home decorating and cooking show will be suspended for the coming season because she is awaiting sentencing after being convicted in a questionable stock sale.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  1:45:50 PM
Greenspan - cannot serve a four year term if the Senate approves the nomination. His regular term as a member of the Federal Reserve expires on Feb-1st 2006. He cannot be reappointed to that position. This means he will be out of the Chairman position by Feb-1st 2006 OR before. many Republicans blame Greenspan for the defeat of the first Bush when he did not lower rates fast enough to overcome the dying economy. It's the economy stupid! Did the current Bush lean on Greenspan to prevent current rate hikes in exchange for another nomination?

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  1:39:40 PM
(Reuters) - A U.S. government sale of one-month Treasury bills on Tuesday received only average demand for its largest auction of paper of this maturity since mid March.

The new one-month bills went for a high yield of 0.900 percent, with investors bidding for 2.37 times the amount of debt on offer, below the last week's 2.92 bid-to-cover ratio, and below this year's average of 2.76.

Primary dealers bought 88.7 percent, or $18.62 billion, of the $21 billion on sale. Indirect bidders, which include all customers primary dealers as well as foreign central banks, took 8.5 percent, or $1.791 billion, but these investors feature far less prominently at bill auctions than note sales.

The foreign interest was well below the interest for the longer term notes last week.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  1:37:45 PM
Linda and James are on vacation today and will not be posting in the monitor. They will both be back on Wednesday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  1:18:13 PM
01:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  1:10:12 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  1:08:41 PM
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's economy grew at a better-than-expected annual pace of 5.6 percent during the first three months of this year, chalking up eight straight quarters of expansion in the best showing in a decade for the long struggling nation.

Link

 
 
  Keene Little   5/18/200,  1:00:09 PM
The gold stocks are still giving some mixed short-term signals here so it's tough to tell where the next move will be. But here's a 60-min chart of NEM to show what I think is happening. This move off the May 10th low looks corrective and it's why I'm thinking we have another low coming. Watch this uptrend line from the 10th for a break-down. If the EW pattern follows through the way I think it will, we should get one more minor new high for this move up before rolling over to a new low. But a break down below the low on the 13th should be confirmation we've started the next leg down. If you're looking to get long the gold stocks, I don't see evidence yet that these stocks have bottomed, but I'm watching for it. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  12:53:39 PM
White House renominates Alan Greenspan to another 4-year term.

Treasuries "applaud" and move to highs of session. 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) still up 3 bp at 4.729%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  12:39:43 PM
Day trade short alert ... Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.83 here, tight stop $36.95, target $36.56.

Session high has been $36.90, where QCharts' DAILY R2 at $36.90. 5-MRT BLUE #4 at $36.89, and SOX.X 455.05 +2.27% still just below its WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  12:14:38 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,401.77 +1.58% ... best levels of session and trades WEEKLY Pivot (1,401.39).

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 454.95 +2.24% lags just a hair with WEEKLY Pivot at 456.42.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  12:12:27 PM
Orthodontic Centers America (OCA) $7.47 +17.82% ... stock opened lower to trade $5.51 on initial news that company was delaying quarterly report due to accounting change. That may have been the news bears were waiting for, as short interest is high at 49% of float.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  12:09:00 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  12:03:52 PM
I've just received an email about NT's recent accounting scandal from a broker with whom I'm friendly at Scotia-McLeod in Canada. If anyone's interested, email me at jlevinson@OptionInvestor.com and I'll be glad to forward it to you.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  11:18:32 AM
Volume on the QQQ yesterday was over 150 million shares. Average volume is just over 100M. Definitely some funds changing sides, squaring positions or hedging positions ahead of expiration.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  11:05:58 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:57:10 AM
Major Indices at WEEKLY Pivots right in here. SPX 1,092.81 1,092.59 +0.78% is a point better as is S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 534.58 +0.78%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:50:31 AM
Now news I can find .... Why are OSIP and IMCL weak today?Couldn't find any news.

OSIP $79.75 -0.74% Link and IMCL $72.94 -1.4% Link bucked the market Link and sector trend past couple of days Link . May be seeing some profit taking.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:45:24 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $30.60 +4.5% ... announced four new orders totaling over $1.2 million.

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/18/200,  10:29:58 AM
Dateline WSJ Italian-born Sonia Gandhi told her Congress Party and allies in the central hall of Parliament on Tuesday that she would "humbly decline" to be the next prime minister of the world's largest democracy.

The alliance won the largest number of seats in last week's Indian parliamentary elections, giving it the opportunity to name the country's next prime minister.

But "the post of prime has not been my aim," Mrs. Gandhi said over a crowd that yelled at her to take the job. "I was always certain that if ever I found myself in the position I am in today, I would follow my inner voice. I humbly decline the post."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:26:16 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 533.61 +0.6% ... Link session high of 533.87 did see trade at WEEKLY Pivot. I'd have to think trade at 535 a signal for some renewed strength, which would have OEX also reclaiming its 200-day SMA.

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 333.92 +0.52% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  10:09:07 AM
*DJ Broaddus: Inflation Expectations Still Well Contained

*DJ Fed Broaddus: Inflation Risks Still Balanced

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:07:30 AM
10:05 U.S. Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  9:59:57 AM
A 5.25B overnight repo from the Fed today effectively drains 8.25B against those expiring today. That coincides with Broaddus' inflation warnings this AM, and could exert downside drag on equities, bonds, gold, foreign currencies, or any combination thereof as liquidity drains from the market.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  9:52:33 AM
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) $24.84 -6.37% Link ... Reported first quarter EPS of $0.21 per share which was above consensus estimates of $0.18. Same store sales rose 4.6%, while total sales rose 20% to $354.2 million for the recent quarter.

Guidance for upcoming Q2 had DKS saying it expects earnings per share of $0.32-$0.33, whith same-store sales set to rise 2% to 3%. Full year forecast was for earnings of $1.27-$1.28 per share on same-store sales growth of 3%.

Current consensus among analysts is for EPS of $0.36 for Q2 and $1.25 for year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  9:47:18 AM
Deere Co. (DE) $65.85 -0.22% Link ... Reported second quarter EPS of $1.88, which was $0.13 better than consensus estimates. DE said revenues jumped 43.6% year-over-year to $5.3 billion, also above consensus calling for $4.87 billion. Guidance was for Q3 sales growth of approximately 25% to 27% year-over-year.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  9:46:49 AM
Gold and silver are dusting themselves off from the spike down following Broaddus' inflation comments, with gold up to 378.20, down 1.40 and silver up to 5.761, +.086. HUI is down .28% at 179.57 and XAU is down .29% at 81.22.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  9:39:58 AM
Home Depot (HD) $34.57 +3.22% Link ... Dow gainer after reporting first quarter net income of $1.1 billion, or $0.49 per share versus $907 million or $0.39 a share in the year ago period. Consensus called for HD to earn $0.43 per share.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  9:28:37 AM
Breakdown of the CRB with delayed quotes at this Link.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  9:24:57 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/18/200,  9:11:06 AM
Linda and James are on vacation today and will not be posting in the monitor. They will both be back on Wednesday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  8:56:45 AM
The internet has been running more slowly than usual since last night (I'm on the east coast). A reminder to set stops on all positions in case of sudden outages.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  8:34:05 AM
Housing Starts 1969K, Building Permits 1999K

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   5/18/200,  8:03:06 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of housing starts, est. 1980K, and building permits, est. 1960K, for April.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   5/17/200,  9:14:19 PM
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