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  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  4:51:18 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  4:13:38 PM
Don't know if you can get a short off in the MS India Fund (NYSE:IIF) $21.81 +2.82% Link , but after recent bounce, might see weakness at tomorrow's open.

Session high today was $22.44, and never having traded this security (seems a little thin) caution would be advised.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  4:07:53 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

FL est = +0.31, actual = +0.31
MW est = +0.35, actual = +0.41
ADCT est = +0.00, actual = +0.00
BBOX est = +0.71, actual = +0.65
BRCD est = +0.03, actual = +0.03 cutting jobs -10%
CMOS est = +0.02, actual = +0.06
HOTT est = +0.11, actual = +0.11
INTU est = +1.16, actual = +1.20
SNPS est = +0.33, actual = +0.35

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  4:06:37 PM
CNBC's guest that was just on (oil analyst) saying he and others believe that oil has about $6, if not a little more priced into it as it relates to geopolitical risk.

Let's keep his thoughts in mind as it relates to OIL EQUITIES and oil commodity price action.

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/19/200,  4:05:42 PM
For anyone who is not getting any back data for the new Qcharts Wilshire 5000 symbol, DWC, you could use the Vanguard Total Stock Market Viper, VTI as a substitute.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  4:04:26 PM
While we have to reserve judgment while the OEX stays within the recent congestion zone and especially when it's considered that this is opex week, today's trading pattern looks anything but bullish. It might be dangerous to draw too many more conclusions, however, with Keltner's signalling that the OEX is short-term oversold heading into the Thursday of opex week.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  4:01:21 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

FL est = +0.31, actual =
MW est = +0.35, actual =
ADCT est = +0.00, actual = +0.00
BBOX est = +0.71, actual =
BRCD est = +0.03, actual =
CMOS est = +0.02, actual =
HOTT est = +0.11, actual = +0.11
INTU est = +1.16, actual = +1.20
SNPS est = +0.33, actual =

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  4:00:12 PM
eBay (EBAY) $79.13 +0.1%... fills morning gap higher back to the downside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:54:30 PM
From upper channel Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart, all the way to lower-channel Keltner support: The OEX has traversed that entire distance today. The OEX now breaks through that lower channel support as I warned it might do in my 11:37 post. This has created a downside breakout signal, but as I warned while the OEX was violating that upper-channel resistance, risk has now shifted. Those in bearish positions now should be following the OEX lower with their stops. First resistance is near 533.25 and then at 534.35, but stronger resistance is beginning to gather near 535.24-535.45, with that resistance traveling lower along with price. Bears want to see that resistance hold, although they'd prefer to see the 200-dma's hold as resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:53:13 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) closed up 5.8 basis points at 4.794%, where session high yeild was 4.809%.

Note that WEEKLY Pivot is 4.812%, which has not been traded to the upside (yet) this week.

This could be "the trigger" tomorrow for further slide in equities if 10-year YIELD shoots higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:45:46 PM
June Light, Sweet Crude (cl04m) went out at $41.50. Open up $0.15 and trades 30-minute delayed at $41.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:42:16 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $77.05 -2.86% ... right back at our 38.2% fitted. Was today's decliens technical (I didn't see anything technical) or was it Oil related (sentiment)? I think oil related, where negative sentiment triggeres the selling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:41:40 PM
While the OEX's candle might not be viewed as being as bearish as it might be since it formed within a broadening formation and not at the top of a rise, another close beneath the 200-dma's certainly wouldn't be a bullish development. What if the OEX ekes out a close above the 200-ema and 200-sma's? That's still not a bullish development.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:40:43 PM
eBay (EBAY) $79.35 +0.34% .... technical? or Oil prices? How about both.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:39:07 PM
QQQ $34.92 +0.54% ... noting session low was $34.82, that's the WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:38:19 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,092

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:36:15 PM
My comment on price action is NEGATIVE SENTIMENT from today's oil price action.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  3:28:21 PM
Russell cash has gone negative for the day

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:27:23 PM
The OEX is between its two 200-dma's, above the 200-ema and below the 200-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:25:55 PM
While that long upper shadow on the OEX's daily candle (so far) certainly looks bearish, we have to remember that the OEX will likely close the day mired inside a consolidation zone. Just as the 5/12 daily candle looked less bullish than it would have otherwise, coming after a couple of days of sideways consolidation rather than at the very bottom of a decline, this candle looks less bearish than it would otherwise because it also forms from within a consolidation zone.

That zone is a broadening one. When a broadening formation comes at the top of a climb, we know exactly what to think of it: it's probably a distribution pattern indicative of weakness. They're always indicative of emotional trading, but I've seen them less often at the bottom of a decline and so don't have a strong prediction about which way this one might break. It still doesn't seem a stable pattern and it still slightly resembles a ragged bear flag or even a "b" distribution pattern with tattered edges, but the price/MACD bullish divergence continues as this pattern forms, warning us that the formation could still see an upward break. I'm stumped as to knowing at what level we could consider either an upside or downside break confirmed, however, since a broadening formation makes that nearly impossible to determine.

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/19/200,  3:14:05 PM
Jeff (15:01 post) here is the OSX/June light Crude ratio I showed before. It indeed is continuing to fall. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  3:11:30 PM
Treasury Secretary Snow saying again that oil reserves are for emergencies only

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:11:03 PM
Remember that chart I posted earlier today showing how the BIX had traded so far in relationship to the 72-ema I watch? Here's how it looks now: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  3:05:39 PM
The OEX has now fallen beneath its 30-minute 100-pma on the 30-minute chart, after rising to test the 100/130-pma combination on the 60-minute version. A test of those averages and then a rollover beneath them is bearish action, but the 200-dma still lies below the current level, so bears aren't safe yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:04:28 PM
Very sentimental ... while I haven't checked any news in the biotech sector, the BTK.X 497.46 -1.45%, which I don't believe has much tie to oil price, is leading weakness today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:02:33 PM
QQQ $35.02 +0.83% .... looking DAILY S1-ish

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  3:01:24 PM
Oil Index (OIX.X) 336.63 -0.29% ... continues to show the DIVERGENCE between the equities and oil prices themselves. This action, should it continue, should have traders and investors still question that the MARKET believes oil prices are going to go too much higher.

One thought, which I haven't checked against, but should be aware of is what impact, if any, might this week's index expiration be having on the OIX.X and OSX.X. It could be that price action is artificial right now into May expiration.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:57:20 PM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.49 +2.28% ... holding tough, and while I own position in IRA, I wan't to alert traders to potential weakness in coming sessions should oil and $CRB continue to rise.

I say this as an alert to ANYONE that may have put great deal of account capital into this security on Friday.

PHF can trade good volume some day, and light volume the next, so there is a short-term liquidity concern. It is the lack of liquidity that had me NOT profiling a swing trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:53:24 PM
QCharts users .... if you've got ability to turn on your WEEKLY Pivot/Daily pivot levels on stocks you're following, might try and key off observations noted in SOX.X and QQQ intra-day and look for stocks that have been sideways below their WEEKLY R1s and try some shorts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:49:13 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,117.41 +0.49% ... slips back below its 200-day SMA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:47:31 PM
QQQ intra-day chart with upper/lower 5-MRTS. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:40:09 PM
QQQ $35.27 +1.55% ... day trade bears should be closed out alert after QQQ fell to target of $35.17 with afternoon low of $35.13.

Would reload for another short on bounce back into $35.35 area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:37:31 PM
Maybe that theory that $40.00 would now be a floor rather than ceiling for light, sweet crude was right, at least on a short-term level. The 30-minute chart of cl04m shows a long candle shadow punching below $40.00 with prices then springing up and zooming past $41.00 again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:35:54 PM
02:30 Market Watch ... screen capture just after this afternoon's 1st sell program premium... Making some notes that INDU/SPX/OEX session highs were just under their respective WEEKLY R1's at best levels of session. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:33:43 PM
The OEX dropped beneath mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart, but only minimally so, and these support lines have a kind of gravitational pull that tends to pull the OEX back into their orbits. If the drop continues to be precipitous, however, prices move beyond that gravitational pull and move to the next support level. That's at 534.27 on a five-minute Keltner basis, but traders would do well to watch the 30-minute 100-pma at 536.24 for possible support if the mid-channel Keltner support doesn't pull the OEX back.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  2:27:20 PM
Earnings After the Close - Reduced List:

FL est = +0.31,
MW est = +0.35,
ADCT est = +0.00,
BBOX est = +0.71,
BRCD est = +0.03,
CMOS est = +0.02,
HOTT est = +0.11,
INTU est = +1.16,
SNPS est = +0.33,

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:27:16 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 467.24 +3.06% ... that sell program has SOX falling to MONTHLY Pivot.

Making some sense here. Computers might well be set up in the pivots to measure against oil and perhaps the $CRB.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:26:29 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,100.09 +0.78% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:25:48 PM
QQQ $35.33 +1.70% ... intra-day look at QQQ with WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement. Thoughts on where intra-day support must be coming from. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:23:03 PM
The OEX may now be headed down to test mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart, with that support at 537.29, but with other support at the current level and again at 538.07. Five-minute MACD turns below signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:09:56 PM
OI Put Play MBG: MBG surged higher this morning, but now prints a doji above yesterday's candle, a potential reversal signal. On any downturn, watch for a move through out new trigger, on a trade at $49.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  2:08:28 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 469.72 +3.6% ... here's daily interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracement. Link

What I'm looking at as it relates to thought for QQQ short with very tight stop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:06:49 PM
OI Put Play CTX: CTX trades lower this morning, still not giving the ideal entry on a move up to $47.00 and then a trade through $46.00 again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  2:00:46 PM
OI Put Play AMZN: Once again, AMZN clambers above the midline of its descending regression channel, refusing to fall below the early May low and then round-number support at $40.00. It's also having difficulty with resistance, however. Although now more than forty cents above its 10-dma at $42.56, it's also drawn back from its high of the day and hasn't yet approached the river of other moving averages flattening above it or the $44.20 historical resistance. The 50-dma now lies at $44.14. When turning to 30- and 60-minute charts, however, I do note that AMZN also hovers at its 30-minute 100-pma, currently at $42.75, and rises to test the 130-pma at $42.95, moving above it as I type. It was turned back earlier on its approach to the 60-minute version at $43.33. Play participants want to see it pushed below that 30-minute version again and then below the 10-dma. A move above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's at 43.33 and 43.62 would signal that AMZN has more strength than it's displayed since 4/29 when it last traded above those averages.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  1:25:16 PM
The OEX 15-minute candles are squeezing down into small-bodied shapes, something that sometimes happens prior to a breakout. That doesn't predict which direction a breakout might be or when it might come, of course, as yesterday saw most 15-minute candles squeeze down like this after the early morning volatility, until this morning's breakout. The 15-minute MACD suggests that the next breakout might be to the downside, but that's far from conclusive evidence and so far support holds, arguing against that MACD action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  1:21:19 PM
Day trade short alert for the QQQ $35.37 here, stop $35.46, target $35.17.

QQQ has been sideways below its WEEKLY R1 ($35.38) for about the last 45-minutes.

SOX.X 469.54 +3.56% ... has been sideways but so far, holds above MONTHLY Pivot (467.81). I've got an intra-day downside alert set here, for any intra-day softening.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  1:19:11 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Some tie between $CRB and major indices high. RUT.X most impacted at this point. Also note that NASDAQ NH/NL more even out. All seemed to come with the DOE report and oil price move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  1:10:36 PM
On the OEX 15-minute Keltner chart, there's been a bearish MACD cross, but from above signal. While that cross is occurring, the OEX tests the 538.71-539.48 Keltner support lines. An above-signal bearish cross on the MACD may not be quite as ominous as one from above signal, but this still offers a warning to those in bullish positions to exercise care.

On the five-minute chart, resistance continues to firm up above the current OEX position while support appears to thin out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  1:05:19 PM
01:03 Market Watch at this Link

Morning highs look to be marked on reversal higher in oil, while also noting the $CRB has moved back above the 269 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  12:58:40 PM
The OEX is clinging to important five-minute Keltner support, with five-minute resistance lines massing above the current OEX level, from 539.14-539.98. At this moment, it looks as if the OEX will have an easier time pulling back than rising significantly. That can change, but that's what's happening now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  12:52:11 PM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 903.26 -0.45% ... session low after morning high of $911.78.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  12:51:28 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 502.89 -0.37% ... session lows after session high of 510.49.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  12:39:33 PM
In my 11:50 post, I noted the discrepancies in the API's and the Energy Department's reports on inventories for crude stocks. Since I've been watching these figures for only a few weeks, I asked for input, and here's a comment by a trusted market observer: [T]hey're always off. . . . The API and DOE never agree, or almost never. When I listened to the interview with Felmy, the chief economist with the API, he noted the discrepancy, but didn't comment otherwise on the differences.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  12:32:29 PM
Research In Motion (RIMM) $105.98 +5.99% Link ... dear jeff, RIMM is moving lately like crazy.P/E is 175.i have shorted some shares.what are your thoughts? does it deserve this valuation? jim told me to ask you,as you are foloowing stock. let me know. thank you.

I'm not following RIMM all that closely, but for whatever reason, I looked at it last night, wishing I had played long from $95, with a target to its current bullish vertical count of $103.

This has perhaps been "one of those stocks" where valuation can be argued, but I'd be VERY CAREFUL with holding an UNDERLYING SHORT POSITION.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  12:11:37 PM
GNTA Clarification .... to my 10:37:33 .... I found the trader's e-mail and it was NOT GNTA the trader had mentioned.

Trader's e-mail was in regards to Global Crossing (GLBCE) $12.17 -1.45%, where stock did see notable price gains in recent sessions. Link

Tader's e-mail was dated 05/14/04 ... My move to Maui from Kauai has been smooth with exception of getting DSL for our home. Its been 2 months and I'm still on dial-up while Verizon promises it will only be another 2 weeks.

Last month I was short GLCB for a nice gain as the stock collapsed. While I was not interested in covering too soon, I got a call from my broker that they were calling in my shorts. This was even more interesting because I initiated the position by exercising my puts.

Apparently, due to the delisting of the stock, it seems like all the brokerage houses are forced to call in their shorts. I am now playing this from the long side. DWA has a PnF bullish vertical target of 20.5. While I don't think this is a value play, I think it qualifies for one of your short squeeze candidates for the above reasons.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  12:10:12 PM
I've been hearing talk lately, as have many of you, I'm sure, that 40.00 may now be a floor for light, sweet crude oil, rather than the ceiling that it once was. This morning, we saw the cl04m contract test that theory, with a brief plunge to a low of 39.90 before a quick reversal and bounce back above 40.00. Of course, the day is far from over, and anything might happen, but I was just listening to an interview with John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, and he doesn't believe that OPEC has the ability to increase production much over the current levels. The interview didn't address the 40-floor-or-ceiling issue.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  12:05:31 PM
The current 15-minute OEX pullback begins to look like a possible bull flag pullback beneath next resistance, but if that's what it is, bulls would like it to find support at 537.25-538. While a bull flag might pull back much deeper, to a 50% retracement of the flagpole rise that preceded it, a pullback much deeper than that 537.25-538 range is going to mire the OEX in the consolidation zone in which it's traded recently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  12:02:29 PM
Frontier (FRNT) $9.09 -1.08% .... should be swing trade bullish stopped at $9.20 (-$0.15 per share).

Didn't get this alert out on que and reverses from session high of $9.60.

June Light, Sweet Crude futures (cl04m) $40.79 +0.61% now higher on the DOE data.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  11:57:55 AM
eBay (EBAY) $80.68 +2.02% ... here's bar chart with two retracement I'm using for my analysis of eBay. Link

 
 
  Keene Little   5/19/200,  11:56:37 AM
Looking at NEM, I see we did in fact get another push higher after my last post. A typical bounce for a 4th wave, which is where I'm counting the gold stocks in their EW pattern, is 38% of the previous 3rd wave. For NEM, that retracement level is at 38.96. The high for today is so far 38.88, pretty close. The XAU has a potential fib target for this bounce up to 86.62-87.03 which is right at it's downtrend line from the high on April 1st, so there's still potential for another push higher.

So for aggressive types, I think there's a good short signal here for a ride down to its fib target of 31.51. For more conservative traders, wait for a rollover that drops below today's low because there's a chance for one more small push higher (I'm trying to count all the small moves as we near what should be the top of this bounce). As always, control your risk with the right stop level or amount you're risking in an option play, just in case the new rally leg has in fact started. If you're stopped out, reevaluate to see if you want to get back in, but respect your stops. Watch XAU's rally to see if it stops near that 87.00 price.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  11:50:23 AM
I've noticed for the last couple of weeks that the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Department's inventory numbers don't match. Do any of my fellow writers have any insight into which are the most trustworthy? The API says crude stocks increased by 1 million barrels for the week ending May 14 while the Energy Department reported that they fell 1.1 million barrels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  11:41:20 AM
Many of you know that I watch the 72-ema on many daily charts. The BIX's is one, and here's what's happening today with respect to that MA: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  11:37:06 AM
The OEX begins to tip over toward the fifteen-minute Keltner support gathering near 538-539. This support needs to hold if the OEX has any hopes of reaching that 542-543 level. I continue to advocate that those who might have been in bullish trades should follow the OEX higher with stops as the breakout on the five-minute chart shifts risk to those in bullish trades. There's a risk of a downturn toward mid-channel if not lower channel Keltner support as the Keltner channels seek equilibrium again. Those levels are at 535.63 and 532.16, respectively. Also note that the 30-minute 100-pma now lies at 535.90.

 
 
  Keene Little   5/19/200,  11:28:39 AM
Looking at gold, like the gold stocks, I'm seeing confirmation that we have a good chance for one more push lower before a larger rally gets started. Here's a 60-min chart of gold and you can see the sideways triangle price has been consolidating in since the low on the 10th. This is a very typical pattern for a final 4th wave consolidation and I like to see it because it signals the last move of the pattern is coming before reversing in the other direction. Link

In this case I'm expecting the final 5th wave down and it could start from this bounce today (these triangle patterns have a nasty habit of going on and on, but I watch for an a-b-c-d-e wave pattern inside, as I've labeled it, to signify a potential end to the consolidation). A break of the lower trend line should be confirmation the 5th wave down is in progress. I have a downside fibonacci target price for gold at 365.54 as support to end the decline. Now I watch to see if this is what develops or instead for some evidence the new rally leg has already started, which I haven't seen yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  11:11:01 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

NH/NL shift in NASDAQ is notable.

Discussed in Market Sentiment Link last night

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  11:08:56 AM
OEX five-minute Keltner support lies just below the current 539.99 level, then at 539.49, and concentrated a bit more at 538.57-538.80. The OEX still operates in break-out mode on the five-minute Keltner chart but not on the 15-minute one. A fall back below 537.21-538.10 would suggest that the OEX is getting tugged back inside the channel line that usually stops its upward progress. That channel now turns higher, but it needs to provide support if bulls are to have their best hope of the OEX reaching that 542-543 zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  11:03:51 AM
Subscriber T.G., someone whose judgment I always trust, sent along this chart of the Materials Select Sector: Link He notes that "this ETF has been providing some classic technicals lately." Here's a listing of the components of the XLB: Link I wondered today how this sector might be impacted by the reassurances offered out of China. I knew that steel companies were rebounding, but wondered if the rebound would spread into the companies comprising the materials sector. As T.G. notes, although there's a rebound in progress, it faces possibly strong resistance. I apologize for cutting off part of the chart when uploading the image.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  11:03:26 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:59:40 AM
Intel (INTC) $27.87 +2.65% ... Reuters reporting that company is going to invest 1.6 billion euros in its Irish operations.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:54:25 AM
Advanced Energy Ind. (AEIS) $14.05 +3.84% ... trades up to falling 21-day SMA. Adams Harness sees AEIS as a prime beneficiary of strong business at Applied Materials (AMAT) $19.22 +2.01% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:52:27 AM
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) $15.60 +5.83% ... chatter regarding potential buyout candidate by Honeywell (HON) $33.47 +0.69%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  10:49:03 AM
Thanks, Jeff, for your 10:37 input on GNTA. I've been going over various scenarios--the naked put writer; the "covered" put writer who also shorted the stock, perhaps at higher than $10.00; someone with a bear put spread--and trying to decide how each might have impacted GNTA's trading patterns, but without watching OI and how it changes each day for each of those options, I'd just be guessing at how the various scenarios might have played out. Even then, I would be, and I'm just not experienced enough at those kinds of guessing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:41:50 AM
All sectors in the green with only Oil (OIX.X) 336.54 -0.31% and Oil Service (OSX.X) 96.74 -0.47% showing fractional decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:37:33 AM
GNTA ... Linda... per your 10:35 ... I think I received an e-mail from trader the other day that was short and said his broker called him and firms were calling in all shorts. Put options may be large from buying.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  10:35:12 AM
Reader Question: GNTA has a large volume of May puts at the 7.5-10 range. The stock has been dropping as of the last week. Could one of the reasons of that drop be that options are being assigned and therefore put sellers are selling shares and leaping to a long term put?

Response: I do see the heavy open interest at $10.00 and $7.50, but also in the May $5.00 puts. I also note that those deep ITM $10.00 puts are in danger of being exercised, as they're trading near parity, but I'm not sure that any action related to the options activity is the main driving force behind GNTA's decline. Without checking day-by-day changes in OI in the long-term puts, I'm not sure what long-term action traders are taking. News has been awful for GNTA this last month, including an FDA setback involving its melanoma drug Genasense, a class-action suit by investors claiming that the company concealed critical information about Genasense, and the company's announced intention to lay off a large percentage of its work force. On-balance volume has dropped precipitously as this news began being released. This looks like investor flight, but perhaps some of my co-writers more experienced with opex machinations might have different opinions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:33:05 AM
BIX.X 339.93 +1.36% ....

oblivious or little impact to 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) rising 5.1 bp to 4.787%.

No wonder! PHF $8.60 +3.61% !!!!!

sudden hunger for "riskier" assets

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:29:14 AM
es04m chart with my fitted retracement we follow from close to close. Link

I'm 10-minute delayed on this e-mini, but noting session high and near-term resistance.

An intra-day study of this chart on 60-minute intervals would have shown the es04m intra-day bullishness was found back in March, when 60-minute close above 1,104.25 was found.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:22:37 AM
Market Volatility (VIX.X) 17.83 -7.75% .... Most active options Sep 1,175 call, June 1,100 put, May 1,125 call, June 1,100 call, May 1,100 put

SPX currently trades 1,104.58 +1.19% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  10:18:53 AM
The OEX tests recent historical resistance from 539.60-539.75, with 540 presumed to offer round-number resistance also. Upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart lies at 542.85. That upper resistance is seldom reached, but when it is, it sometimes gives a valid breakout signal, too, with the OEX continuing to climb higher along that channel line. However, that level is usually not reached until and unless the Keltner line currently at 537.59 has approached the upper channel line, so there's some doubt about whether the OEX can charge right up to that 542-543 level or stay there if it does. Of course, as I type, the OEX is charging right up the scale, so is perhaps putting the lie to these words even as I type them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:18:40 AM
My trade blotter updates

Bearish (put options) = EBAY $80.27 +1.54%, DIA $101.10 +1.14%

Bullish (call option) = CSCO $21.52 +2.57% looking to sell these May $22.50's at $0.15, OSIP $79.53 +0.23%

Bullish stock ... FRNT $9.55 +3.91%

 
 
  Keene Little   5/19/200,  10:17:14 AM
We got a nice pop in the gold stocks this morning. I was looking for one more new high to complete the correction before we see another leg lower (I believe it will be the final leg lower and then we'll get a rally started). I can adequately count the EW pattern as complete at this morning's high so caution to gold stock bulls right here. We could still get one more small push higher and of course it's always possible that we've already seen the lows and the rally has started from the low on the 10th. But I don't like the way the rally started and therefore feel that another low is coming. At least raise your stop to where you're comfortable. If we going to start the next leg down from here, I'll be watching how the pattern develops and the fib targets--73.00 for XAU and 31.51 for NEM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  10:10:58 AM
10:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  10:02:21 AM
After yesterday's earnings release showing better-than-expected sales, AMAT trades only slightly above yesterday's closing value, down from the opening high. This morning, UBS Warburg downgraded AMAT and several other semi-production companies, cutting the industry to a neutral rating.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:53:48 AM
Swing trade long alert ... Frontier Airlines (FRNT) $9.35 here, stop $9.20, target $9.75.

Airline Index (XAL.X) 51.73 +3.17% ... reviewed in last night's Index Trader Wrap and chart at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:49:49 AM
Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.40 +1.20% ... moves above 7-day resistance.

This is the "junk bond" portion of our hypothetical "Beetles Balanced" asset class fund.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:47:35 AM
Dorsey/Wright Sector Bell Curve week-to-week comparison at this Link

Those in UPPER CASE show sector bullish % in a column of X.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  9:44:10 AM
For all the OEX's zooming around today, it's still within the consolidation zone that it began establishing about 5/10. Top resistance for that zone ranges from 537.25 (strongest) up to 539.39 (the 5/13 intraday high).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  9:40:29 AM
On the first retracement of the day, bullish players do not want to see the OEX retrace more than half of the first five-minute range, with that first candle being a taller-than-normal one. That midpoint is at 535.80. Bears do want to see the OEX retrace more than 50% of that first five-minute range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:38:21 AM
QQQ $35.15 +1.2% ... first 5-minute bar was from $35.15-$35.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  9:38:04 AM
The OEX slices straight through the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, as well as the 537-537.35 levels, but it hasn't traveled much further. It has now breached upper Keltner resistance. This could be a valid breakout signal, so those already in bullish plays should be raising stops, but should also consider that risk has now shifted, with that risk being of a fall back toward central Keltner channel support again, now near 533.76. With a strong opening surge, there's always the possibility of a pop-and-drop opening balanced against the possibility that the breakout signal is real. The first reversal of the day, due to begin in about five minutes, should tell us much.

The first five-minute range for the OEX was 533.82 to 537.78.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:34:19 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 459.80 +1.42% ... gaps above its WEEKLY Pivot (456.42), could see trade at correlative WEEKLY R1 (464.69) and MONTHLY Pivot on or before Friday's close.

Sticks its head above downward trending 21-day SMA (459.92).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:32:36 AM
200-day SMA al_rt ... General Electric (GE) $30.76 +1.08% ... gaps above its slowly trending higher 200-day SMA ($30.60)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:29:55 AM
Network Appliance (NTAP) $20.70 ... after reporting quarterly earnings late yesterday, stock marked lower at $20.28. Needham upgrades to "buy" from "hold" saying NTAP executing well and prospects remain strong. Needham sets $25 price target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:24:52 AM
Premarket trade for the trackers has the DIA at $100.76, SPY higher at $110.43, and QQQ at $35.12.

 
 
  Jane Fox   5/19/200,  9:21:21 AM
Dateline WSJ One day after his top commissioners were grilled over their Sept. 11 response, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani told a national commission Wednesday that their priority should be preventing a new attack, not assigning blame.

"Our enemy is not each other, but the terrorists who attacked us," Mr. Giuliani said in his opening statement to the panel. The mayor acknowledged there were "terrible mistakes" made on Sept. 11, but attributed that to the unprecedented circumstances.

It is about time someone said this. The time, energy and money put into commission after commission is ridiculous. I'll get off my soapbox now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/19/200,  9:20:15 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/19/200,  9:09:52 AM
Speech by Governor Susan Schmidt Bies on corporate governance Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  9:02:16 AM
Into the middle of this week, the OEX still clings to its 200-dma, but futures this morning indicate that the OEX may attempt another push above that important average, currently at 533.99 (exponential) or 534.95 (simple). Yesterday, the OEX rose to test those averages again and then fell back, closing below both. I like to watch both the 200-sma and 200-ema, and do note that the OEX closed only cents below the 200-ema. Daily MACD remains bearish but its histogram grows less negative and the early-to-react RSI had already hooked up even before this morning's strong showings on the futures.

Having missed out on a couple of days' market watching, I'm not in tune with the ebb and flow of the markets, but I do note that there wasn't a lot of ebbing and flowing yesterday afternoon. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX's fifteen-minute nested Keltner channels settling into an equilibrium position, with such positions predicting an eventual breakout one direction or the other. Similarly, the 5-minute chart shows the OEX settling into an equilibrium position. That equilibrium position was created as the OEX was pressured beneath the 30-minute 100-pma yesterday afternoon. Since futures suggest an attempt to move higher today and since that 30-minute 100-pma was pressuring the OEX yesterday, let's look first at those averages. A move above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 535.55 and 536.80, respectively, would signal an upside break out of the recent consolidation pattern, with a move above the 100-pma also signaling a move above the descending trendline that began forming off the 4/27 high.

The 15-minute Keltner charts show a resistance line that usually stops OEX advances at 536.30, however, with those lines being dynamic and sometimes stretching upward with an OEX move. Such an upward move would face resistance again between 537-537.35, an area of short-term historical resistance, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that important Keltner resistance line stretched up to that level if the OEX should gap open or move up strongly at the open, so that the two would converge. The five-minute Keltner resistance that usually stops the OEX is currently at 536.87, and it, too, could easily stretch up to that 537 level. This suggests that the OEX could see that level, but that it could also again find resistance there. The OEX sees resistance again roughly from 538-539.25, although the 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that if it can spring completely free of the 537-ish level, that it could find its way to 542-543.

A break below 530 would signal a downside break, but the 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX will likely find support between 530-531. Taken all together, then, the futures suggest another test of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's this morning, with the possibility that the OEX could find enough resistance there or at the 537-ish level to retard further advances. A move above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and then a rollover beneath that 100-pma again would not be good news for the bulls. Each move higher will be met by recently confirmed resistance, but it's time for the OEX to either stage a several-day rally into resistance or else finally drop beneath the 200-dma and figure out where strong support lies. Opex machinations may interfere, however, so traders should prepare for some market maneuvers that don't appear to make sense from a technical analysis standpoint.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   5/19/200,  7:11:42 AM
Good morning. When I left Friday, the Nikkei had closed at 10,849.63. After a trip far below that level and the 200-dma Monday, Japan's better-than-expected GDP helped the Nikkei to begin a climb that continued through to Wednesday's open, finally reaching Friday's closing level again about mid-morning Wednesday morning. By the close of the morning session, the Nikkei had almost touched 10,900.00. During the afternoon session, it climbed another 100 points, but could never quite hit the 11,000 mark despite several tries. It closed higher by 256.65 points or 2.40%, at 10,967.74. That climb brought the Nikkei back above its 200-dma at 10,738.02, after having closed beneath it for two days. Still ahead, however, is the psychologically important 11,000, at which the Nikkei was rebuffed on Wednesday, then historical horizontal resistance near 11,090, and a broken ascending trendline at 11,375.

Banks led gains after a newspaper report that UFJ Holdings, Japan's fourth-largest banking group, would now report a profit loss for the year just ended in March instead of the gain that had been forecast. The reported move may have sent the sector higher on hopes that UFJ--and perhaps other banks--was making progress in writing off bad loans. By the close of the morning session, many banks had traded sharply higher, with UFJ and Resona both ending the day 7.5% higher. HPQ's earnings report sent some computer-related stocks higher, too. In stock-specific news, Sega soared after Tuesday's announcement that it would combine operations with slot-machine maker Sammy, with Sega climbing 13.5%. Auto manufacturer Nissan announced that its Chinese joint venture had begun operations in one Chinese plant, with Nissan climbing 1.1%.

Other Asian bourses mostly traded higher, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 5.45%. With Samsung Electronics leading early Asian gains, partly due to the company's prediction of a computer memory chip shortage this year, South Korea's Kospi climbed 4.85%. Samsung closed higher by 5.6%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 2.46% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 3.59%. China's Shanghai Composite gained a more modest 0.18%. China's vice premier announced that the country's efforts to cool its overheating economy were seeing early results, according to one article. Investment into China also reportedly slowed. Dow Jones reported that China's largest oil refiner, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, would raise prices of ex-factory naphtha, gasoline and diesel, sending that company's stock higher by 16.8% on Hong Kong's bourse.

Most European bourses climb, too. Tech gains are credited with sending bourses higher in London and the eurozone countries, but an easing in oil prices also helped. Samsung's prediction of a chip shortage sent some European chip-related stocks such as STMicroelectronics (STM) and ASML higher, too. In addition, signs that China's growth may moderate combined with hopes that the country would avoid a hard landing sent ThyssenKrupp and other metal stocks higher. In stock-specific news, Zurich Financial announced much higher-than-expected Q1 operating profit, sending that stock higher during early trading, and insurer AXA posted gains after it received approval for its acquisition of U.S. group Mony.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 climbed 25.70 points or 0.58%, to 4440.10. The CAC 40 gained 51.37 points or 1.44%, to trade at 3620.51. The DAX climbed 50.86 points or 1.34%, to trade at 3840.10. Monday, the DAX closed below its 200-dma and Tuesday it closed at that average. Today, it's moving back above it and above the next light resistance at 3825-3830. During this week, Germany's ZEW Center for European Economic Research released its closely watched index, with that number dropping in May to 46.4 from April's 49.7.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  10:20:03 PM
Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/18/200,  8:38:18 PM
Answer to Jim's 01:45:50 I doubt it. At least I hope not. Don't forget that Republicans, not unlike Democrats, they are all politicians, where finger pointing is common in order to save their own jobs.

If Greenspan has become a politician, then "Katie bar the doors." It's bad enough to think he, or the entire Fed, wouldn't raise rates ONLY because it were an election year, if he, or the entire Fed, felt it would harm the economy.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   5/18/200,  8:25:01 PM
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