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  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  4:48:56 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  4:20:13 PM
Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $55.65 -1.73% Link .... Dorsey/Wright's Non Ferrous Metals Bullish % (BPMETA) reversed up to "Bear Correction" status yesterday.

ACH exceeded it bearish vertical count of $49, and recent trade at $53 gets stock back on a PnF buy signal to $80. Going to set a pullback alert on this one at $52.

ACH's relative strength vs. the SPX also back on a buy signal and column of X. Link

  Jane Fox   5/26/200,  4:09:04 PM
Dateline CNN Terry Nichols guilty of all charges in Oklahoma City bombing case, making him eligible for death penalty.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:58:32 PM
Here we are at the end of the day and what's happened? We've had the tight-range day that followed a big-range day, producing a doji. I know that a lot of you are eyeballing that doji and wondering if it's predicting a reversal. It could be, but since the OEX is still climbing within one version of an ascending regression channel--a possible bear flag--I consider that doji formed from within the formation and not at the top of a climb. Nevertheless, it may be suggesting a possibility that the OEX could retreat again at least toward the bottom of the flag, particularly since the OEX was turned back at the 543.50-ish resistance I had thought it might find difficult. That's also suggested by the OEX's prolonged crawl across the top Keltner channel resistance, with overbought conditions and the need to retreat to mid-channel or lower-channel support growing. Nothing in the daily oscillators suggests such a possibility, however. RSI has a minor flattening at the top of the climb, but we all know how fickle RSI can be. It's invaluable as an early indicator and when it breaks through trendlines just ahead of formation breaks on the indices, but it can switch sides several times, too. So, we have the possibility of a reversal, with that possibility needing to be confirmed by tomorrow's action, as this could just be the expected consolidation of yesterday's big gains before another move higher.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:46:59 PM
This time, as the OEX rises, the Keltner resistance lines have separated, perhaps making it easier for the OEX to slip higher. Perhaps. Support lines have separated, too.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:43:01 PM
Volume has been tepid today to go along with the lackluster trading patterns. As of a few minutes ago, total volume was 1.12 billion on the NYSE and 1.3 billion on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios stand at 20:13 for the NYSE and 17:15 for the Nasdaq, with up volume strongly ahead of down on both exchanges.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:23:06 PM
Back to a doji again on the OEX daily chart with that doji right on the 120-minute 130-pma (as well as the daily 130-ema).

  James Brown   5/26/200,  3:22:22 PM
Ugh! The drop in GDT makes me sick! Sometimes it's tough to control your emotions as a trader. We were stopped out yesterday in our put play due to the MDT clinical trial data. Now GDT is dropping on concerns over its manufacturing process for its stents.

The stock is down $8 or -13.2% to $52.50. Link

  James Brown   5/26/200,  3:16:09 PM
Telephone Data Systems (TDS) might be worth another look. Shares are up 2.5% and breaking out over its 50 and 100-dma's. A move over the $70 mark could be a trigger to go long and target the $72.50-to-75.00 levels of resistance.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:14:43 PM
The OEX hits Keltner support again on the five-minute chart, at 542.08-542.17. So far, Keltner resistance still looks stronger than support, with mid-channel support now grouping near 540.43-540.90.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  3:10:31 PM
Just looking around, I discovered that the 492 downside P&F target for the OEX matches up to the likely weekly downside target of 492.32 on the weekly Keltner-channel chart--likely only under certain conditions. This would occur if the shortest-length weekly Keltner channel I watch continues its current downturn within the mid-length one. The OEX's movements are usually roughly bounded by that mid-length channel. Here are a couple of conditions that should probably be met if that weekly shortest-length channel is to continue the downturn: the OEX should probably find resistance either near 543.63, the current basis line for that channel, or near 562.08, the upper boundary of that channel, with preference for a downturn beneath the mid-channel level. So far, today's high has been 543.43. I didn't determine that the 543.50-ish level might be resistance from a study of the weekly Keltner charts when I began mentioning it earlier in the week, but rather from historical resistance, etc., but it's interesting to see the correlations that pop up. I'm not promising that the OEX is going to dip to 492, but only watching various factors since I've found Keltners so interesting to use on an intraday basis, and saw that the weekly versions were suggesting the possibility of the recent downturn as far back as February. I'm now benchmarking these observations in case they pan out the way the Keltner's suggest they could--as long as that shortest-length channel doesn't get turned back up again.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  3:08:14 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:56:40 PM
The OEX is now moving up into resistance that I had thought important earlier this week, so we'll see if it holds or not. OEX 546-547 might be next in importance after this. The 15-minute Keltner channel has been showing an upside near the high 543's, but just jumped up to 544.15. However, I'm just not sure above moving much above the 543.50-ish level as those 15-minute Keltner channels are beginning to show some bearish divergence in their Keltner-channel-manner.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:54:26 PM
I'm also watching Starbucks (SBUX) for a breakout over resistance at $40.00. Shares move a bit slowly for directional option plays but covered calls might work well.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:52:19 PM
Yesterday I noticed that H R Block (HRB) broke through minor resistance at $47.50 and its 50-dma. Today is seeing some follow through on the move but the stock remains under what could be tough resistance at its 200-dma and the $50.00 mark. What keeps my interest in watching it is the strong bounce from its P&F support.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:49:27 PM
Golden West Financial (GDW) is on the move again and breaking out over resistance near $106/107 and its 50-dma. Unfortunately volume is very light and doesn't support the move.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:46:19 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $34.75 +0.75% .... seeing some volume . There's been a seller at $34.75 all day.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:43:18 PM
Bullish traders can also be watching Zimmer Holdings (ZMH), the medical device maker. Shares have held up pretty during the market's pull back and now look ready to hit new highs. Consider a trigger over today's high at $85.22 or April 22nd's high at $85.25.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:42:35 PM
$TNX has crept down to challenge bottom support at what could be a falling wedge, which is usually a bullish formation. We could know soon, as a move much below 46.60 without a bounce could negate the possibility that this is a falling wedge (seen on the 60-minute chart): Link

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:41:43 PM
We're still watching Fortune Brands (FO) for a breakout over resistance at its 40 and 50-dma's and the $75.00 mark. Its MACD has just produced a new buy signal. Bulls can probably target a move to $80.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:39:10 PM
Briggs Stratton (BGG) is on quite the roll. The stock is up five days in a row and up six out of the last seven sessions. Aside from today volume has been very good on the rally. The move appears to be a new all-time high.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:37:47 PM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to those same daily 100/130-ema's shown on the SOX chart in my 14:33 post: Link I don't think the correlation is quite as strong as with the SOX, but there is some correlation.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:36:52 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,973 +0.42% ... session high and challenging its 50-day SMA.

  Jane Fox   5/26/200,  2:36:23 PM
Dateline WSJ Wells Fargo & Co. reached an agreement to purchase mutual-fund company Strong Financial Corp., the companies said today.

Terms of the agreement weren't disclosed. But the price could reach as high as $700 million, people familiar with the matter said. Wells Fargo, the nation's fifth-largest U.S. bank by assets, would initially pay Strong a figure believed to be less than $500 million, then add additional payments based on how well Strong retains assets under management. These payments could total more than $200 million.

The deal is expected to be completed by the first quarter of next year, and is subject to approval by the Strong Funds board of directors, its fund shareholders, shareholders of Strong Financial and Wells Fargo Funds board of trustees, the companies said in a press release.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:35:56 PM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $22.33 +0.47% .... set to challenge both its 50-day SMA ($22.61) and 200-day SMA ($22.57)

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:33:22 PM
The SOX is currently testing its 100-ema, perhaps not a closely watched average. However, I've found that the exponential 100/130-pma's that Jim watches to be useful to watch across several time frames. Here's a daily chart of the SOX with the 100/130-ema's: Link You be the judge as to whether they're worth watching.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:32:00 PM
Soybean exporter/distributor Bunge Ltd (BG) is sprinting higher today. Wednesday's 3.3% gain is a follow through on yesterday's big rally and breakout over its trend of lower highs.

There is news out today that BG will issue 8.5 million shares at $35.20 to buy back a minority stake in its Brazilian unit. (-Reuters).

  Jane Fox   5/26/200,  2:30:17 PM
Dateline WSJ The U.S. has credible intelligence from multiple sources that al Qaeda is determined to launch an attack in the U.S. in the coming months that could be linked to events such as an upcoming international economic summit and the summer political conventions, Attorney General John Ashcroft said Wednesday.

Mr. Ashcroft said the intelligence, coupled with recent public statements attributed to al Qaeda, "suggest that it is almost ready to attack the United States." The withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq due to the political repercussions of the March 11 train bombings in Spain, Mr. Ashcroft added, could lead al Qaeda to attempt to influence U.S. politics.

"Al Qaeda may perceive that a large-scale attack in the United States this summer or fall could lead to similar consequences," Mr. Ashcroft said in remarks prepared for a news conference.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:28:14 PM
Wow, thanks, Jane, for that 14:20 chart on the SPX/BIX. Most instructive, particularly with the BIX headed into resistance after that big run-up.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:26:35 PM
We've now got our doji on the OEX. (See my 12:54 post.) This afternoon's trading pattern may change today's candle in any number of ways, but this is one expected outcome of yesterday's big-range move.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:26:32 PM
Jefferson Pilot Corp (JP) is up today and building on yesterday's breakout over $50.00. Today's move happens to hit the 38.2% retracement of its Aril to May decline. Look for the stock to challenge resistance at $52.00 and its 50-dma.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:23:29 PM
Bank of America (BAC) is challenging major resistance in the $82.50-83.00 range that last since October of last year.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  2:20:32 PM
Hmm... there may be a bearish reversal forming in Chinese Internet SOHU. The stock is failing at resistance of its 40 & 50-dma's just over the $20 level. The stock struggled with these technical levels in early April and failed. A move back under $20.00 might be a decent trigger to consider bearish positions. Trading any of the Chinese Internets should be considered aggressive and risky.

  Jane Fox   5/26/200,  2:20:24 PM
Linda here is my two cents on the BIX. Here is a chart of SPX/BIX and shows how strong the BIX is in relation to the SPX. As you can see it most definitely is on an upward trajectory but seriously in danger of breaking the regression channel that would tell me the BIX is losing leadership. Higher interest rates will do that the BIX. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:17:07 PM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,113.48 +0.03% ... trading has come to a crawl during FBI news brief.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:14:34 PM
I know that Jonathan does a great job of covering the VXN, but a trusted reader and market observer sent along this chart that I thought interesting: Link Because I'm not a QQQ trader or a NQ futures trader, I don't follow the VXN as often as I do the VIX or VXO, but yesterday's dive in the VIX and VXO had me questioning the "when the VIX is low, it's time to go" axiom contrasted with our year-long questioning of what the bottom might be--what is "low"--in the VIX. Perhaps this chart provides one viewpoint to keep in mind. Thanks again, T.G.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  2:09:18 PM
Has anyone taken a look at the BIX lately? After confirming a H&S-ish formation yesterday on a push above the 340-342 region (could draw different versions of the neckline), the BIX has zoomed straight up into resistance from 347-351, with the BIX at 347.42 as I type. Gains should begin slowing now, although that H&S formation has an upside target somewhere in the 356 region, depending on where you draw the neckline. I'm not sure that upside target will be met as the formation wasn't a classic one since it had a blunted right shoulder. That also requires the BIX getting through the 350 region. However, watching whether the upside target is or isn't met and whether intervening resistance does or doesn't hold helps us firm up ideas about bullishness or bearishness in the BIX. That helps us to firm up ideas about the OEX, too. If the SOX and BIX continue their climbs into resistance or even break above it, it's hard to imagine the OEX retreating too far, but if both have reasons to slow their ascents, the OEX may, too, because of the big caps it shares with these indices.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:08:57 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) moves to low yield on the session. Down 5.3 bp at 4.671%.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:04:43 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,096.33 -0.21% ... here's intra-day chart of INDU and tight range so far. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  2:03:56 PM
Sell Prog. Premium SPX 1,113.31

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:59:26 PM
Brunswick Corp (BC) is on the move again and today's 2.3% gain to $41.57 is a breakout over its 40 & 50-dma's. Its MACD is in a new buy signal. Next resistance should be the $44.50-45.00 range.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  1:50:55 PM
The bearish price/MACD divergence on the OEX five-minute chart continues, with the MACD absolutely flat-lining just above the signal line, far below yesterday's MACD high as the late-afternoon OEX high was hit. Fifteen-minute divergence is showing up, too, with the fifteen-minute MACD descending ever since yesterday's high was hit.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  1:48:00 PM
Day trade exit alert for IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $8.91 +14% here.

Some traders have noted that when I've issued a "raise stop" or "lower stop" alert, a smaller cap stock may suscpicously gravitate toward the adjusted stop. While we may have our thoughts as to why this is happening, I'm trying to figure out a way around it.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:45:48 PM
Symantec Corp (SYMC) is starting to look like a bearish candidate. We considered it yesterday but the stock produced a nice hammer-style candlestick that looked like a bullish reversal. That reversal is failing and SYMC is now down 3.47% and under the $45.00 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  1:43:04 PM
Looks like you're correct, James. Here's an old story from 1999: Link

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:42:18 PM
Invitrogen Corp (IVGN) might be a bullish candidate. The stock is trading in a slightly descending channel and the bounce from the bottom of the channel has cleared resistance at its 200-dma. Now the stock approaches resistance near its 50-dma and the $70.00 mark. A breakout here and bulls could play it toward the top of the channel near $75. Its technicals are in "buy" mode.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:40:33 PM
Jon, the answer is I don't think so. TOPP obtained a license to distribute Pokemon products from the trademark owner Nintendo of Japan.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  1:39:09 PM
James, did TOPP buy KIDE? I had thought that 4Kids was behind the Pokemon phenom.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:38:59 PM
Bulls may want to keep an eye on Moody's Corp (MCO). The stock is rebounding higher again and approaching resistance at $66.00 and its 40 & 50-dma's.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  1:38:04 PM
A new high of the day for the OEX and another breakout of the five-minute Keltner channels, too, as well as a break above yesterday 542.72 high.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  1:37:22 PM
The Topps Company Inc. (TOPP) is known for its lollipops, ring pops, push pops, baby bottle pops, Bazooka brand bubble gum as well as their line of trader cards, stickers and temporary tattoos. Many may not know that they also distribute Pokemon products.

According to news out today the EU commission has fined TOPP $1.94 million for illegally keeping prices high on Pokemon collectibles "by discouraging distributors from selling across borders" (Reuters).

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  1:33:42 PM
The SOX has been climbing since early May, but it's been climbing within an ascending regression channel that's been in place since the first of the year. The SOX will face upper-channel resistance at about 486-487 currently, with the 200-sma currently at 584.41. Since the channel is descending, it looks possible that the SOX could actually face both at the same time. Link The presumption should always been that the trend will continue and that presumption is so far backed up by the rise of oscillators far toward levels indicating overbought conditions as the SOX approaches that resistance. They'll be ready to turn down about the time the OEX approaches that resistance, and there's been fairly good correlation with oscillator action lately.

However, a couple of signs this time were more encouraging for SOX bulls. One was the fact that on the last approach to bottom support, the SOX only sent a candle shadow down to that support, rather than spending a few days testing the level and piercing the support, as it had done in March. That's a divergence then from March's pattern and a bullish one. In addition, bullish price/MACD divergence showed up at that early May low, a lower low accompanied by an equal MACD low. So, although there's a presumption that the trend (currently downward) will continue, anyone considering a bearish play on SOX stocks should watch for price action that meets the expectation and be prepared with an account-appropriate and action-appropriate stop, too. I'd sure want to wait and see what oscillators and volume patterns showed as the SOX crept nearer that resistance before drawing any conclusions.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  1:19:18 PM
We need to see a drop below 540.14 before the lower high on the OEX 5-minute chart is confirmed. That may not happen, as the OEX currently is hitting 5-minute Keltner support. Keltner resistance is now beginning to thin out just a little, with the Keltner lines separating, but not enough yet that I could suggest that the OEX would have an easier time breaking through that resistance. We'll see.

  Keene Little   5/26/200,  1:16:48 PM
What do you think of the action in gold and NEM this AM? Time to get short??

Both gold and gold stocks look like a good short today. I went short gold this morning based on what looks like a completed wave count to finish the upward correction from the low on May 10th. If you'd like to try a short today, I would use this morning's high, in gold and gold stocks, as a stop level. If the upward correction is complete, we should now start the next leg down to new lows (below the 10th). Looking at NEM, we look to be in a bounce up against this morning's decline, which could get one more push higher, so see if you can get short after another push higher, possibly back up to about 40.00, or a drop to a new daily low.

But I'm probing for a top here before waiting for evidence of a trend change back down (an impulsive move to the downside). The first move down this morning looks good so far--a small 5-wave move down. But a new high will stop me out--I'll get flat and wait again for what appears to be a top. The more conservative way to get short is to wait for evidence we've turned down (a larger 5-wave move down) and then get short on the next bounce. I'll call these out as I see them but I consider it a good risk from here considering how close a new high is for a stop. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  1:12:15 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:58:47 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 15.91 -0.31% .... "popped" to session high of 16.30, but has been slipping lower since 11:40-11:45. Not much going on at this point. I've got some near-term al_rts set just below yesterday's lows and at the 16.78 level.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  12:54:41 PM
What was it this morning that several of us were saying about tight-range days often following big-range days? All we need now is a moderate climb higher followed by a dip back to the opening level and we'll also have the classic symbol of indecision after a climb--a doji on the daily chart. Of course, the day is far from over, and we could get afternoon action that is anything but stalemated.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:48:41 PM
12:45 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  12:37:23 PM
We're approaching a double-top level in the OEX. Those in bullish positions should be particularly careful as that level is approached. Keltner resistance is traveling up with the OEX, but is still there, and any time there's been a breakout, there's a vulnerability to a downturn to the mid-channel support, currently at 539.18 and climbing, if not to bottom-channel support, currently at 535.95 and climbing.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  12:30:13 PM
The OEX still hasn't been able to break above the Keltner resistance, but that resistance is climbing right along with the OEX. Late yesterday afternoon, I mentioned one pattern that sometimes repeats with Keltners. First, there's the big breakout. We've had that. Then if there's a long enough pause for Keltner lines to snake above the price bars, providing resistance, there's often a pullback, but sometimes just a moderate one. We've had all that. Then there's another rise to test upper-channel resistance and then a deeper pullback, often at least to mid-channel support. We've had the rise and the test, but not the deeper pullback. I theorized that the pattern might be a recent one and might not repeat if the OEX was going to begin directional trading again, and late yesterday afternoon, it didn't work at all. Will it today?

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:27:40 PM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert for IPIX to break even.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:26:52 PM
IPIX $9.09 and BLUE #2

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:20:05 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $8.98 +14.5% ... here's intra-day chart on 10-minute intervals with 5-MRT and a regression channel that looks to be in play. Link

  James Brown   5/26/200,  12:06:44 PM
EBAY continues to run higher, now up five days in a row. Today's move (+0.93%) is yet another new all-time high.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  12:02:12 PM
Crude futures have been generally moving up since about the time the API released its figures, but there appears to be some resistance at about the $41.40 level and the futures are pausing here momentarily. A continued move higher in crude will likely pressure equities unless there's the conviction that the OPEC meeting will do something to reverse those gains. I haven't heard that conviction expressed, but instead have heard doubts that the member nations can bump up production enough to bring prices down much, but then I certainly don't know everything there is to know about this subject. I'm no expert.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  12:00:11 PM
Day trade long alert ... IPIX $8.82 +13% here, stop $8.55 (to begin), target $9.25.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:56:57 AM
There's been an upside break out of the neutral triangle at the top of the OEX climb on the five-minute chart, to be confirmed by a move to a new high. However, the OEX is just now meeting Keltner resistance that appears firm, from 541.08-542.23, and breakout-or-no-breakout, I'm not so sure the OEX can advance.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  11:55:31 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 346.11 +0.65% ... strong move here and first to trade MONTHLY R1 in our pivot matrix.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:48:13 AM
There's a triangle forming on the OEX five -minute chart at the top of the climb, top line currently at about 541.80 and bottom currently at about 540.90, with those two narrowing quickly toward an apex.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:45:44 AM
OEX five-minute Keltner resistance is now grouped at 541.91-542.16, still clumped together fairly closely. Some support is firming near 540.77-540.85, however.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:37:16 AM
Recently added OI call IMCL is up 4.08% and trading near $76. Today's gain has trigged us at $74.05. We're encouraged to see it above the $75 mark.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:34:57 AM
Reader Question: thoughts on eyet breakout?

Response: Here's a link that to an article that theorizes that the stock is rallying due to news that one of its products will be discussed at a public advisory committee meeting of the FDA on August 27. Here's a link: Link The news gapped EYET higher on stronger-than-average volume, with the stock having made a big percentage gain today.

Unfortunately, I'm a technical trader and there's just not much technical information to be gained from a study of this chart, at least if QCharts is correct in indicating that it first began trading in late January. EYET just hasn't been trading long enough, so that it's barely produced a 50-dma and hasn't a 200-dma. It does, however, have a rough rising regression channel: Link Bullish price/MACD divergence showed up, but the MACD bullish cross is tentative as yet and occurred below signal. Other oscillators look positive and have previously shown good correlation with trading action--hey, that's an aberration, isn't it, when oscillators actually work--but EYET is moving today right up into its previous resistance zone, too. OBV (not shown), an indicator of whether money is steadily going into EYET, has been improving since early in April. Other than that, there's not much I can say and I'd be leery of spending anything other than lottery money on a play on this stock. Any investment might result in big gains or big losses, whether a bullish or bearish stance is taken, but there's just not enough evidence either direction to show me which direction is the best.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:34:47 AM
Sector update...

TRAN transports: +1.85%
DDX disk drives: +1.29%
BTK biotechs: +0.78%

OSX oil services: -1.10%
XAL airlines: -0.69%
DJUSHB homebuilders: -0.79%

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  11:33:03 AM
It looks like 24.75B in temporary open market ops wasn't enough - the Fed has just announced a coupon pass in the amount of 796M. This is a permanent open market operation, and as such does not need to be repaid by the Fed's 23 primary dealers.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:18:00 AM
WM Wrigley Jr Co (WWY) is not seeing much price reaction after Singapore has lifted its 12-year ban on chewing gum.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  11:17:17 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:16:05 AM
Eli Lilly Co (LLY) is up 1.6% after Smith Barney raised its outlook from "hold" to a "buy" and pushed their price target to $82.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:14:25 AM
As I study the OEX daily chart with today's candle perched just above 541, I'm reminded to note again that 540.63 is the 19.1% retracement of the climb off the March 2003 low to this year's high. We've seen some oscillation around this retracement number, so although it's probably not the most-watched retracement level, it perhaps bears some watching today.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  11:12:43 AM
The 1 lb. Double Six Dollar Burger features two 1/2-pound charbroiled, 100-percent Angus beef patties topped with three slices of American cheese, bread-and-butter pickles, red onions, lettuce, tomatoes, ketchup, mustard and mayonnaise -- all on a toasted, seeded bun. The result is a tasty mega-burger that requires two hands, a firm grip, a serious appetite -- and many napkins.


  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:11:14 AM
Mmmmmm... and if you're not hungry yet you will be. Carl's Jr. is introducing the "Biggest" burger in fast food history.

The 1 lb. Double Six Dollar Burger features two 1/2-pound charbroiled, 100-percent Angus beef patties topped with three slices of American cheese, bread-and-butter pickles, red onions, lettuce, tomatoes, ketchup, mustard and mayonnaise -- all on a toasted, seeded bun. The result is a tasty mega-burger that requires two hands, a firm grip, a serious appetite -- and many napkins.

Participating Carl's Jr. restaurants will begin selling The 1 lb. Double Six Dollar Burger on Wednesday, May 26. The suggested retail price is $5.49.

... just for you, Jon!

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  11:10:32 AM
Sounds pretty good from here, James. A tad early, but it's never too early for a burger.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:09:48 AM
Americans are certainly enjoying their roast beef sandwiches and hamburgers. Hardee's is reporting an 11.9% jump in Q1 same-store sales while Carl's Jr. is reporting a 9.8% jump in Q1 same-store sales. Both companies are part of CKE Restaurants (CKR). Boosting sales were the Hardee Low Carb Thickburger (tm) and the Carl Jr's Low Carb Six Dollar Burger (tm) and the Low Carb Breakfast Bowl (tm).

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:09:19 AM
On the five-minute chart, Keltner resistance is now firming up with Keltner support thinning out in more widely separated layers. This development sometimes but not always precedes a pullback, although it doesn't suggest the degree of the pullback. If the OEX can instead muster the strength to climb a little, those resistance lines may thin out, too, and not clump together so closely.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  11:08:52 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.83 -0.01% ... 30-minute delayed, but session best and back above WEEKLY S1.

Gold stocks have been bouncing on weaker dollar of late.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  11:05:33 AM
The OEX has now risen into next Keltner resistance and a move much above the current 542.03 level will represent another breakout above the Keltner channels, to be confirmed by a move to a new high. Neither of those has happened as yet, however, and it's likely to possible that this resistance will hold.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:03:30 AM
Following the action in MACE is Digital Recorders (TBUS), which is up 11.4% to $6.51.

Plus IPIX Corp (IPIX) is up 8.05% to $8.45.

MACE, TBUS and IPIX were some of the security stocks that exploded higher back in early April.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  11:03:04 AM
Looking back over the repos set to expire tomorrow, my rough count comes to 24.75B. That's a big number for one day and indicates a larger than usual presence of the Fed in the open market. Generally, I've noticed that the Fed settles for a drain on big expiration days, and I'd guess that they do the same tomorrow, but the amount is unknown.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  11:01:25 AM
One of today's big winners is Mace Security Intl Inc (MACE). The stock has gapped higher and is trading at $5.33 (+12.6%).

  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:56:21 AM
Quality Distribution Inc (QLTY) is up more than 10% to $7.86 after Legg Mason upgraded the stock from "hold" to a "buy". The analyst at LM believes the worst is behind it for QLTY and has a long-term target of $14.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:56:02 AM
Day trade stop alert LSI $7.87 ... that was quick. Thought LSI would trade into its DAILY Pivot, but not the case. 2 back-to-back buy programs were rather early I thought.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:49:40 AM
Don't look now but Guidant (GDT) is down again, back under support at $60 and its 200-dma. Oddly investors are reacting negatively to a positive report from GDT on two of its clinical studies released today. Actually, the move could be a reaction to BSX's data out this morning regarding its Taxus stent study. BSX is seen as the current leader in the lucrative stent market.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:49:37 AM
Jonathan may have input on the API's figures, but as expected, their numbers differ from the Energy Department's, with the API reporting a rise in crude of 764,000 barrels and gasoline inventories by 1.65 million barrels, with those numbers still being below the expectations proposed by at least one analyst. The API said distillate inventories were down 666,000 barrels.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:46:45 AM
Buy Prog. Premium 1,111.88 -0.10%

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:45:29 AM
I mentioned this morning that the OEX had stopped its advance yesterday at the 120-minute 130-pma, with the 100/130-pma's having been important on OEX trading over the last months. Currently, the OEX is turning down again below the 100-pma after having risen to test the 130-pma, a bearish sign if it continues, but it's still close enough that we can consider the OEX to be testing that MA rather than having breached it. The OEX five-minute decline looks suspiciously like a falling wedge and the OEX also tests Keltner support, so it may be time for it to bounce, either just high enough to widen that formation or else to test the 541.66-541.71 level.

Oops. Happened as I typed.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:44:15 AM
Buy Prog. Premium SPX 1,110.39 -0.23% ...

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:43:17 AM
Day trade short alert .... LSI Logic (LSI) $7.78 +0.51% here, stop $7.87, target $7.62.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:42:30 AM
Playtex Products Inc (PYX) is up 5.3% to $7.14 but off its highs of the session after an upgrade from Lehman Brothers. LEH raised their outlook from "equal-weight" to "overweight" and lifted its price target from $6 to $8. The move has produced a new buy signal on its MACD indicator.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:40:42 AM
Information I'm reading suggested that expectations were for increases in inventories across the board on crude, gasoline, and distillates, so this morning's numbers should be deemed disappointing. Expectations were for a 1-3 million barrel climb on crude, a 1.75 million barrel climb on gasoline, and a 1.5 million barrel climb on distillates, according to at least one analyst. This isn't likely to help crude oil prices, but the API's figures sometimes differ widely.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:37:31 AM
Thanks, Jonathan, for the update on inventories.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  10:37:16 AM
The API data is usually released shortly after that of the Energy Dept.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  10:36:35 AM




  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:36:13 AM
Jones Apparel Group (JNY) has raised its unsolicited offer for shares of Maxwell Shoe Co (MAXS) from $20 per share to $22.50. Shares of JNY are down 1% to $37.77 and MAXS is up 0.76% to $22.25.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:35:37 AM
The OEX continues heading down, with a test of 540 coming up next. If those inventories numbers have been released, the markets aren't receiving them well. That mid-channel Keltner support is now at 537.91.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:33:56 AM
I'm on the API (American Petroleum Institute) site and monitoring a couple of other news services, but haven't yet seen the release of inventories numbers for crude, distillate, and gasoline.

  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:32:35 AM
The White House is saying that we're in a "serious threat period" and they assume there are terrorists already in the U.S. These statements build on recent comments from the FBI last week who was warning local authorities about rising risks of suicide bombers.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:30:56 AM
10:10 AM Market Watch at this Link

DJUSHB 596.86 +0.71% right now.

INDU 10,089 -0.28%, SPX 1,111 -0.19%, QQQ $35.89 -0.21%

  James Brown   5/26/200,  10:28:36 AM
Vimpel Communications (VIP) was on the watch list last night for a move over the psychological $100 level. Shares are breaking out over this level today. There is also some news from the company today. Shareholders have voted to approve the merger with KB Impuls.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:25:13 AM
Much-appreciated Reader Input: Your input is invaluable to me and you are always so patient with my 'new trader' questions, so.....in no way is this a criticism, but I thought I'd give you a heads up that you are getting OPEC and OPEX mixed up in some of your posts :):)

Comment: Thanks so much for the heads-up. Actually, I've caught myself several times doing that, but obviously not often enough! My fingers just type what they're accustomed to typing so often with opex week last week. I'll be more vigilant, and try to go back and correct some of those posts, too.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:20:45 AM
Reader Question: Could you give some insight as I'm still somewhat confused, when volatility plunges as it did yesterday, does it favor PUT or CALLS Buyers or Sellers, and what does such a wild down swing usually forecast?

Response: As to what caused the wild swing--and wild is an appropriate adjective to use--Jeff addressed his theory of what happened last night in his Index Wrap. Here's a link: Link

While I profess to be unsure about what might have happened, I do know that a drop in volatility such as that we had yesterday is deleterious to those who have already bought puts or calls, because it collapses the value of those options. The option seller generally benefits, but of course that depends on the strategy being employed. For example, a straddle seller gains when volatility crashes as the value of both options decreases and the straddle seller could buy them back sooner than anticipated for a profit. However, right now, I wouldn't want to be a straddle seller because the volatility indices are all in ranges just above multi-year lows and if volatility should rise again, straddle sellers are going to suffer. However, it's a complicated subject when you get beyond simple option buying and selling and are discussing the effect of changes in volatility on various combination strategies, one that required at least an entire chapter in Lawrence G. McMillan's book, Options as a Strategic Investment, with the title of that chapter being "How Volatility Affects Popular Strategies." When I'm thinking about employing a certain strategy and volatility indices are at some key low or high level, I go right to that chapter and read up on how any change might affect my strategy, helping me make a decision about whether it's a sound one or not.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  10:08:46 AM
We've talked about the ever-evolving form of the rise off the 5/12 low on the OEX. Sure looks a heck of a lot like a bear flag now, with yesterday's rise coming to the top of the flag. Yesterday, I'd been doubtful or just not sure about the OEX's ability to rise above 543, but thought it was likely the OEX would continue testing resistance, maybe even rising a little further or just consolidating near yesterday's level as we headed into the OPEC meeting. I was always concerned about crude oil's impact, however, and the possibility that some event could pop those prices higher again and send equities lower, or that the opposite could happen. I think I may be favoring the "pullback" scenario a little at the current moment, but I'm trying to reserve judgment ahead of the release of the 10:30 inventories numbers and remaining aware of the tendency to turn in tight-range days after a big-range one.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:06:17 AM
Market Volatility (VIX.X) 16.07 +0.68% session high.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  10:04:31 AM
There it is- 4.75B overnight repo, net add in that amount.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:04:14 AM
QQQ $35.95 -0.02% .... first 5-minute bar was from $35.85-$35.92

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  10:03:36 AM
Fed adds reserves via overnight system repurchases Wednesday May 26, 9:34 am ET

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Still no update on the Fed's website as to the amount, however.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  10:02:27 AM
Sell Prog. Premium SPX 1,111.34 -0.15%

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  10:01:27 AM
New home sales 1.09M.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  9:59:37 AM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $34.09 -1.13% Link .... looks to be finding sellers at that 21-day SMA.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  9:58:43 AM
Still no announcement from the Fed. Awaiting the home sales report in 2 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  9:57:09 AM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $82.94 +0.85% Link ....

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  9:55:03 AM
eBay (EBAY) $85.94 +0.72% Link .... strong again this morning and all-time high.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  9:49:29 AM
The OEX continues testing this morning's gap, not yet able to move above it. Five-minute MACD has completed a bearish cross, but from above signal and it's trying to flatten out again. That bearish cross, however, continued the bearish price/MACD divergence seen on that chart. From this chart action alone, it appears likely that the OEX will pull back, perhaps at least to mid-channel support, now at 537.38 (but still rising). Unfortunately, there's a whole lot more at work than this five-minute chart alone, including economic numbers to be released in the next 12 minutes and then again in 42 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  9:41:23 AM
The OEX remains vulnerable to a downturn to test mid-channel Keltner support on the five-minute chart, with that support at 537.20. The first retracement of the day may tell us much about whether the OEX is likely to continue its breakout or reaffirm that mid-channel support.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  9:41:22 AM
There are no short term Fed repos expiring today, the open market desk not having entered the market yesterday, and so any amount added today will be a net addition. We await the 10AM announcement.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  9:39:58 AM
Awaiting new home sales for April to be released at 10AM, est. 1.2M.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  9:39:26 AM
The OEX turned lower at the opening this morning, turning down below a 15-minute version of the rising regression channel which QCharts drew with a higher top line than the 60-minute version. I mentioned yesterday that if I'd hand-drawn the rising regression channel, it would have had a steeper angle than the one QCharts drew on the 60-minute chart. This hand-drawn version would more nearly fit with what Keene has been showing on his charts with ascending regression channels, with his charts showing indices at the top line at the close yesterday, not having breached them.

I caution, however, that this morning's open dropped only low enough to test next Keltner support on the five-minute charts, support that looks strong up to 541, and the OEX now tries its first reversal of the day as the first reversal period approaches. Bears don't want the OEX to close this morning's gap. Bulls do.

During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from 541.56 to 541.20.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  9:36:24 AM
Rediff.com (REDF) $8.55 +2.39% ...

India's BSE-30 Link fell 20 points, or 0.4% to 5,081.95 in Wednesday's trade.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  9:32:42 AM
Boeing (BA) $44.25 -1.0% Link ... lower after DOD deferred its decision on the KC-767 tanker that could be worth more that $23 billion over the proposed program's life.

CSFB making some comment this morning that the heavily politicized debate surrounding the tanker has DOD deferring decision until after the presidential election. CSFB said no investor should hold BA if they can't accept the risk of a multiple hundred million dollar charge that could be necessary if the tanker deal is cancelled and the B-767 passenger aircraft program is placed at risk. CSFB has little confidence that the tanker will succeed for BA, but their interest in the stock is around the expected success of the 7E7 airliner and that any hit related to the tanker program is manageable for BA.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  9:13:30 AM
Yesterday's impressive move higher in many indices, including the OEX, collapsed volatility and sent those indices, also including the OEX, up toward next resistance. For the OEX, the next historical resistance level is at 543.50, with a short-term descending best-fit trendline off the early April high now crossing near 546 and the violated trendline that marked the bottom of its recent big symmetrical triangle currently at about 547.

Yesterday, I mentioned early in the morning that while an upside break of the consolidation pattern would likely carry the OEX toward 540-543, I wasn't sure about gains beyond that point. We might begin to see what conditions look like this morning. First, as I think of the day's likely action, I'm reminded of the tendency for tight-range days to follow big-range days as gains are consolidated, so I'll be watchful for that pattern to repeat. Just because it's an often-repeated pattern doesn't mean that it will repeat again, but it pays to be aware of that pattern. I'm also watching crude oil futures (or I was, until my charting system decided to mess up the chart) with those crude oil futures attempting to push higher again since about 4:10 EST until about 7:15 EST, when my charting system stopped delivering the correct price bars. I'm also watching our futures, down most of the night despite gains in Asian and European markets. That's a bit puzzling, and I've learned to pay attention when our futures don't follow through with gains or losses in other bourses. With so much of recent market action keyed to what's happening with crude oil costs, I'm going to be particularly cautious about drawing any conclusions ahead of this morning's release of crude oil/gasoline/distillate inventories at 10:30 EST, and I suggest you be cautious prior to that announcement, too.

Another puzzling development was yesterday's huge drop in volatility, of course, so we have several elements to factor into today's likely trading pattern with a need to keep all in mind as we look at chart characteristics. In addition, the TNX is lower this morning, but still maintaining a pattern that looks like a falling wedge--a possibly bullish formation--on the 60-minute chart, suggesting that this could be a more bullish pullback than it appears, prior to another move higher, which wouldn't be good for the equity markets if recent inverse relationships hold. There's just a lot at work here.

So what do intraday charts say about the OEX? Yesterday saw a Keltner-channel breakout on the five-minute chart and a touch of upper Keltner channel resistance on the 15-minute chart, something that rarely happens. It hasn't happened since early in April. Although 15-minute Keltner channels can give breakout signals, too, and the OEX can follow the 15-minute channels higher, there's as yet been no breakout. With these conditions, I'd be wary of a need to pullback to central Keltner channel support on the 5-minute chart if not to lower-channel support while always allowing for the possibility that markets could continue to zoom higher. Although the five-minute breakout can be valid and can continue, that breakout warns those in bullish positions that they should be taking steps to protect profits in case of a pullback, setting account-appropriate stops. In addition, on the five-minute chart, bearish divergence on the MACD warns that gains might need to be consolidated. Mid-channel support on the five-minute chart now lies at 537.08, near a 50% retracement of yesterday's zoom higher.

Also of particular note on the OEX is its close at its 120-minute 130-pma. The SPX, Nasdaq, and Russell closed well above this average, so I'm not giving the OEX's close at that average undue weight since it could merely be a bit tardy in following the other indices higher. However, the 120-minute versions of the 100/130-pma's have been important on the OEX and it may not be coincidental that the OEX closed right on that average.

Without any other influences, I think it's about time for the OEX and other indices to rally for a few days, perhaps into the OPEX's official meeting June 3, but there may be other influences, such as that information on inventories and the heightened concerns about al-Qaida attacks on U.S. soil this summer. I'm not liking a bit the overnight reaction in our futures and wary of what may happen to crude oil today and the ten-year bond yields. I'm particularly watchful of the 46.66 level in the TNX, as that should produce a bounce if that's a falling wedge on the TNX 60-minute chart and if it's to show the usual bullish upside breakout. A fall through that bottom wedge support--falling as the day progresses--might signal a go-ahead to the equities, however.

Frankly, I'm puzzled with the various conflicting possibilities, but I've learned not to fight to a conclusion on those mornings when I can't easily draw a conclusion. Sometimes those mornings lead into the types of days when market action proves confusing, too, and I'm better out of the market. Sometimes not, but early market action may give us some clues. Be wary of that 10:30 announcement, however.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  9:01:09 AM
That would explain the large reported drop for this month.

  Jeff Bailey   5/26/200,  8:56:50 AM
Now the "rest of the story" March durable goods orders were revised higher from 5.0% to 5.7%. Table of durable goods figures at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  8:33:04 AM



  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  8:30:55 AM
Durable orders down 2.9%.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/26/200,  8:15:00 AM
We await the 8:30 release of durable orders for April, est. -.8%, and the 10AM release of new home sales, est. 1200K.

  Linda Piazza   5/26/200,  7:06:42 AM
Good morning. Building on gains made in U.S. markets and encouraged by the slight easing of crude oil prices, the Nikkei gapped higher by more than 100 points in Wednesday's trading and then climbed, soon trumping the May 12 intraday high of 11,157.34 and climbing above 11,200. Early in the session, some worried about the relatively small presence of foreign investors in the Nikkei, thinking that might be a sign that gains might not be sustainable throughout the day, but the Nikkei held onto most of those gains throughout an afternoon session that saw a tight range. The Nikkei closed higher by 189.16 points or 1.73%, at 11,152.09, just below the May 12 closing high of 11,153.58, but still well below the late April closing highs.

Although banks had declined in Tuesday's trading, UFJ Holdings gained early Wednesday on news that Toyota might consider aiding the troubled bank. Like some other banking and auto stocks, however, UFJ erased those early gains and closed lower. Toyota was one auto stock managing a higher close, however. Canon's reported plans to trim costs by reducing the number of its suppliers was greeted by gains in the stock and Canon did close higher, too.

Not all Asian bourses were open Wednesday, with South Korea's and Hong Kong's closed for a holiday, but other Asian bourses mostly closed higher. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor and United Microelectronics gained 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively, helping the Taiwan Weighted gain 1.16%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.58% and China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.42%.

European bourses climb, too. In the U.K., the government confirmed that Q1 GDP rose by 0.6%, with that announcement curbing gains according to one article. An intraday chart of the FTSE shows that although it's currently positive, it's been traveling downhill mostly since its opening. Early in the session, chemical and energy companies gained, along with electronics retailers Kesa Electricals and Dixons, and GlaxoSmithKline, with that company gaining on news that it had sought approval from the FDA for a form of its osteoporosis drug to be taken once monthly.

In the eurozone, gains have been termed broad based. Intraday charts show the CAC 40 and DAX to be holding steady near their opening levels, rather than pulling back as has the FTSE 100, but neither have they been able to build on those gains so far. A joint price-fixing investigation into the forestry industry by entities in the U.S., Europe, and Canada had pummeled forestry stocks Tuesday, but several rebounded early today. Stocks-in-the-news included bank and insurer Fortis and reinsurer Munich Re, both gaining after reporting Q1 net profit boosted by higher investment income. Both Euro Disney and heavy-engineering group Alstom revealed plans for new financing plans, with Euro Disney soaring in early trading and Alstom seeing a decline. Although other chip companies posted strong gains in Asian trading, chip maker STMicroelectronics rose only a modest amount due to news that an Italian company would sell its shares of STMicroelectronics to finance a joint venture.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has dropped about 30 points off its high of the day, but is still 14.80 points or 0.33% above Tuesday's close, trading at 4432.80. It may be trying to stabilize now. The CAC 40 has gained 49.99 points or 1.38%, to trade at 3660.52. The DAX has gained 61.84 points or 1.62%, to trade at 3889.91.

  Jeff Bailey   5/25/200,  9:37:38 PM
Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   5/25/200,  9:08:06 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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