Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  5:13:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  4:48:15 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  3:56:29 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,004 +1.37% ... upside al_rt I had set here and break of a second downward trend. Strength above the 04/26/04 releative high would be 3,021, or for real test 3,024 which whould be just more than 80.9% retracement of 01/22/04 to 03/24/04 decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:53:35 PM
The volatility indices dropped today as markets climbed, of course. When I look at the volatility indices' daily charts, I see possible rounding-bottom formations, however, but they're far from clearly defined.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:42:24 PM
Here's a chart I've been following on the SPX, showing that the SPX advance today stopped exactly on the trendline off the February high, at least so far: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:36:16 PM
This OEX pullback could still be a bull flag, but the continuing bearish price/MACD divergence worries me, and that zoom up didn't feel natural, either. We may soon know, as the OEX tests the flag's support now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:24:30 PM
The current five-minute OEX pattern looks like a possible bull flag, but that bearish price/MACD divergence continues, lending some doubt to its interpretation as a bull flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  3:22:36 PM
July Light, Sweet Crude futures (cl04n) at this Link with two "fitted 38.2%" retracement.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:22:27 PM
Harman Intl (HAR) is also breaking out. Shares of HAR are up 1.7% and breaking through resistance at $80.00 (again).

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:21:44 PM
General Dynamics (GD) is making a run for it. Shares are up 1.38% and right at resistance near $97.00 from February, but above recent resistance in the $95.50-96.00 level. It is noteworthy that volume has been a bit lukewarm on the move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:12:41 PM
The OEX five-minute chart shows potential bearish price/MACD divergence on this afternoon's surge. That can still be corrected if MACD turns up again, but it's made a tentative bearish cross, although from above signal.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:12:04 PM
Moody's Corp (MCO) is looking stronger with today's move over resistance at $66.00 and is challenging technical resistance at its 50-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  3:10:42 PM
The OEX heads down again, perhaps just to retest the broken trendline off the March high, but bulls sure want to see it stay above that trendline (at about 546.50-547) on a pullback and certainly to close above that trendline.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/2/2004,  3:10:31 PM
Here is a chart of the small cap Russell 2000, a market that has lead this rally from the May 12th lows. We may just be in for a little rest and retracement. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  3:10:20 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:08:28 PM
Keep an eye on ESRX for a breakout above resistance at $80.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:07:44 PM
Fortune Brands (FO) still looks like a bullish candidate with the recent breakout over $75.00 and its various moving averages.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  3:04:32 PM
SBUX is still going strong after its recent breakout over $40.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:57:40 PM
ITW is enjoying the rally today with another 2.19% gain on top of yesterday's surge from the $90 level. You can bet that bulls are eyeing that $100 level but ITW is short-term overbought.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:57:27 PM
The OEX has touched upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart as well as giving a breakout signal on the five-minute chart. That upper-channel resistance on the 15-minute chart lies at 549.34. That five-minute breakout signal can be a valid one, although the OEX is now vulnerable to a pullback to mid-channel support, but I believe that bullish traders should already be making some decisions about how they'll address the end-of-day issues. OPEC ministers will be making pronouncements before our markets open tomorrow and the ECB will be around the time of our opening. Although many of the positive statements about the desired crude oil price have been repeated today, at least one OPEC representative has mentioned that a primary influence on oil price lately has been the fear that terrorist activities will disrupt production or delivery of oil, a factor that the OPEC countries cannot completely control. With those kinds of uncertainties, remain aware of how much of your account might be tied up in bullish plays and how best to protect any profits that might have been gained. How comfortable are you with the uncertainly overnight? Make these decisions now, if you haven't already.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  2:52:48 PM
Current OPEN play at this Link

PINK arrows signify those profiled.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:50:23 PM
Shooting higher for months on rising oil prices now Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) looks vulnerable to profit taking. This would be extremely speculative but today's candle looks like a "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern (a bearish reversal pattern).

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:48:02 PM
Airline stocks are soaring on the drop in oil prices today. The XAL airline index is up 3.24%. DAL is up 5.79%. CAL is up 6.03%. LUV is up 2.27%. AMR is up 5.55%.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:38:48 PM
Procter and Gamble (PG) continues its slow yet steady climb higher. Shares are hitting new 4 1/2 year highs at $109.01.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:37:10 PM
AMZN continues to crush the shorts with another 1.7% gain as follow through to yesterday's breakout over its simple 200-dma and the $50.00 level. If AMZN closes in the green it will be the eighth gain in a row.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:34:53 PM
CME is rebounding strongly from its intraday low of $117.85 and shares are up 1.09% to $123.34 on the session. The low for the day just happens to be a bounce from the simple 40-dma. Volume has been huge the last two sessions.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:32:49 PM
Bausch Lomb (BOL) was recently on the watch list for a breakout and yesterday's rally sent it above the simple 50-dma. Shares of BOL are seeing some follow through today with another 2.34% gain to $64.68. The next overhead resistance level is $66.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:31:33 PM
Those in bullish OEX plays should be particularly watchful in the 549-551 range, as various types of resistance show up at those levels. There's been a Keltner-channel breakout on the five-minute chart, so it's time to start following the OEX higher with stops on that basis, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  2:31:13 PM
Swing trade long alert .... Microsoft (MSFT) $26.24 +0.49% here, stop $25.65 (to begin), target $26.95.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:29:04 PM
Patterson Dental (PDCO) continues to look like a bullish candidate with the recent bull flag breakout and move through minor resistance at $76.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:28:32 PM
The OEX is now above the neckline of the continuation reverse H&S on the 15-minute chart, of course. One note: the right shoulder of that formation was itself a reverse H&S, showing up on the five-minute chart, and the OEX has already met or even exceeded the upside target predicted by that right-shoulder reverse H&S formation.

The OEX has also broken above the descending trendline off the March high. This looks like a bullish move and some may choose to play it that way, but be careful in case this is a buy-the-rumor momentum move in front of the OPEC meeting, with a possible sell-the-fact reaction on the way. We've seen false breakouts above this trendline before, just before China started a series of moves intended to cool its economy in April. I don't know that there's going to be a sell-the-fact reaction. If OPEC does give some assurances that it means what it says about that crude price in the twenties and if global markets believe they can ramp up production enough to deliver on their words, then markets may continue to climb. Still, any of us around during the mo-mo days of late '99 and early 2000 are worried when we see a run-up into an announcement that there might be a sell-the-news event afterwards.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  2:27:14 PM
Guidant (GDT) continues to look weak, down another 0.97% today, after the recent failed rally/bounce at the $55 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  2:21:51 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 193.10 +0.73% ... session highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  2:18:20 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,251 +0.47% ... session highs and trades its 50-day SMA here. Will most likely help bring a bid to other majors.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:15:40 PM
The OEX continues to test one version of the neckline level on the possible reverse H&S on the 15-minute chart, inching just above that neckline version. It has not yet risen above the other version.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/2/2004,  2:10:20 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $36.74 +1.97% ... might start looking for some shorts to be getting jittery as OSTK begins to violate "right shoulder" of h/s pattern. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:02:59 PM
I don't yet show the OEX as having moved above the neckline of the potential continuation-form reverse H&S, but it hasn't fallen back from the neckline test, either, so we can't say that it's rejected that formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  2:00:16 PM
Today saw the release of May auto sales figures for Ford (F) and DaimlerChrysler (DCX), with both companies' reports coming in below analysts' estimates. F trades slightly lower. DCX is higher, but off the day's high.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/2/2004,  1:56:55 PM
This is a test

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/2/2004,  1:49:46 PM
Linda, although I did speculate about the Low-Carb diets I was never able to come up with a viable play but thank you for the compliment.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  1:43:43 PM
A possible reverse H&S is developing on the OEX 15-minute chart, with the neckline now at about 546.60-547 (depending on how it's drawn). It's a continuation formation--less reliable than a bottoming one, I believe--and no bullish divergence was seen at the formation of the head at yesterday's low. Still, it may be important to watch for either confirmation or rejection, as a sign of bullish or bearish strength.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:37:44 PM
Ah... and we're finally seeing some follow through in ZMH, another OI call play. Shares had been trading in a narrow range the last few sessions after the breakout above $85.00. ZMH is up 1.46% today to $86.85.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:36:10 PM
We're getting a nice breakout in OI call play JNJ. Shares are up 1.02% to $56.34 and above significant resistance at $56.00. This appears to be a new one-year high since the trade at $56.39 two weeks ago looks like a bad tick on the intraday chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  1:32:48 PM
Every time I hear of a company changing product mixes or outlook based on the low-carb diets, I'm reminded of the weeks Jane was writing me, speculating about which companies might benefit from the low-carb craze. I couldn't think of any at the time, but I should have turned my thinking around and thought about companies that might be harmed. Jane was ahead of the rest of us in paying attention to the effect this might have.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/2/2004,  1:29:17 PM
Who would have ever thought a few weeks ago that a move toward $41.00 in crude futures would look good to equities? However, when that's a decline from yesterday's multi-year high, perhaps it's removed some pressure from equities, at least on a short-term basis. I'm watching the TRAN move up a few points, again challenging that trendline off the January high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/2/2004,  1:28:43 PM
My mom used to drive to Plattsburg to buy this stuff called "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter". When having the misfortune to taste it, butter was the farthest thing from my mind, and I took to calling it "I Can't Believe We Just Bought This." She still loves the stuff, though.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:27:18 PM
MMmmm yummy!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/2/2004,  1:26:58 PM
James, maybe they could wash it down with some waxed fruit or cover it with some tofu-based mock-egg-salad...

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/2/2004,  1:26:15 PM
Definitely a flat day. The A/D line is -11 and the Dow and Nasdaq are both within a handfull of points of the flat line although on opposite sides. All the major indexes are trading in a very tight range. Volume is stronger than yesterday and about 2:1 in favor of down volume. We are just passing time until Intel's update tomorrow and the Jobs report on Friday. Other than the buy program at the close yesterday there is no conviction on either side.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:25:55 PM
You knew it was going to happen sooner or later. Panera Bread strikes back with their own new LOW-CARB BREAD. Personally, the idea of low-carb bread sounds like an oxymoron. Here's an excerpt from PNRA's press release:

Panera now offers six new items to meet the needs of carb conscious consumers, including three breads, two bagels and a breadstick. The new items, including total and net carbs, are as follows:

- Golden Original bread
----- 10 total carbs, 6 net carbs (per slice)
- Italian Herb bread
----- 10 total carbs, 6 net carbs (per slice)
- Rosemary Walnut bread
----- 9 total carbs, 4 net carbs (per slice)
- Plain bagel
----- 25 total carbs, 13 net carbs (whole bagel)
- Asiago cheese bagel
----- 20 total carbs, 11 net carbs (whole bagel)
- Italian herb breadstick
----- 13 total carbs, 6 net carbs (whole breadstick)

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:25:36 PM
A little IPO news... vitamin and supplements retailer GNC Corp has filed for a $345 million IPO with Lehman Brothers as the lead underwriter.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/2/2004,  1:25:29 PM
Alert! We are continuing to have hardware challenges with the monitor today. We appreciate your patience as we address this problem. We are currently installing a new server to replace the one that is failing. The monitor will continue to be unstable until this is completed.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:25:24 PM
FYI: the Wal-Mart (WMT) shareholder meeting has been set for June 4th.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:25:10 PM
Good news! There were two American Airline planes, one in Boston and one in Philadelphia, that were searched due to terrorist threats. Both searches came up empty.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:24:54 PM
Xilinx Inc (XLNX) is down 3.79% to $34.96 despite reaffirming its expectation for its June quarter revenues to rise 5-to-8%. XLNX is also stating they believe gross margins will come in at 64% compared to prior guidance of 63 to 64%.

 
 
  James Brown   6/2/2004,  1:24:38 PM
Walgreens (WAG) is reporting that its May comparable store sales were up 8.5%. Overall May sales were up 12.8%.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives