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  Jim Brown   6/4/2004,  8:56:54 PM
MGM offers $68 per share for Mandalay Bay (MBG)
This works out to $7.65 billion including debt. The offer was made at 8:45PM Friday night.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  5:44:27 PM
MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  5:27:18 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  4:38:22 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  4:00:47 PM
Well put, Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:59:16 PM
Funny, Jane. (See Jane's 15:54 post and my 15:50 one.)

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm glad this day is over. Have a great weekend, everyone. For those of you holding options, be sure you feel comfortable holding your positions over the weekend. Life is short; if you're going to stress, perhaps your positions are too large for your account or personal style.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  3:57:39 PM
Day trade long update alert .... will hold the SMH $37.52 +2.09% over the weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:57:16 PM
Here's an OEX daily chart that I've been posting for a couple of weeks now. This week, I added a top descending trendline, in addition to the best-fit one that I had been using. That trendline was added early this week, but look what happened today: Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/4/2004,  3:54:49 PM
Linda we could call it the Dandruff Indicator. (15:50 post)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:54:44 PM
It's going to be touch and go as to whether the OEX ends the day above or below its 50-dma, at 546.54. Currently the OEX is below the midpoint of the day's range, with that midpoint at 547.22, but it could close above that midpoint again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:50:09 PM
Maybe instead of watching each H&S or reverse H&S, we should instead tally up the number of potential H&S formations and potential reverse H&S formations, and formulate a kind of breadth indicator. Five regular H&S vs. two reverse H&S's. Something like that. (This is a joke, by the way.) Today they were everywhere.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:47:00 PM
Well, there went that neckline on the latest H&S, first shown on my 15:19 post, a little sheepishly shown. I knew that if I didn't include it, didn't mention it, it would be the one that broke to the downside and met its downside target. That downside target, by the way, has not yet been met, and is at about 545.60 or so. Looks as if the OEX is trying its hardest to meet it before the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  3:45:47 PM
QQQ $36.30 .... Should the QQQ finish out at $36.35 then WEEKLY pivot levels for next week would be... 35.46, 35.91, 36.28, 36.73, 37.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:42:26 PM
The SOX is below the 50-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:38:01 PM
The OEX now tests the neckline of the H&S formation displayed in the chart linked to my 15:19 post. It's trying to bounce from that neckline level, with mid-channel Keltner support just underneath near 547.95. I'm anxious for this day to end so that I can take a step back and look at the charts without all the intraday noise and see what's going on. Right now, I see Keltner charts showing the OEX trying to settle into an equilibrium position, with such a settling down usually preceding a breakout. On the daily chart, I see a possible widening formation at the top of the climb off May's low, with such formations usually seen as bearish but sometimes breaking to the upside, of course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:29:39 PM
If I thought crude futures were volatile in the 10:00-12:30 period, I didn't know anything. They zoomed up past $39.00, as I reported earlier, but the fell all the way back into the lower end of the congestion zone broadly from $38.45-38.80.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  3:28:17 PM
Websense Inc (WBSN) is breaking out over resistance at $33.00 and hitting new two-year highs with a 7% gain on more than 5 times the average volume with little news to explain the move.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  3:24:44 PM
Shuffle Master (SHFL) is up more than 5% to a new all-time high at $36.70. As part of the casino/gambling group it's probably rising in the shadow of MBG's rally. Yesterday BusinessWeek named SHFL one of its best 100 small companies.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  3:22:31 PM
TBUS and IPIX making lockstep new session lows and quick drops at that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:19:38 PM
Here's the latest H&S: Link I thought about not posting this or mentioning it because we've seen so many of these variations over the last few days as bulls and bears battle it out. However, as Keene said earlier, we're going to have something hit us over the head sooner or later, and this could be it. So I post it, with no assurances that it means anything more than the others. (Note: in the time it's taken me to upload this, the OEX has begun steadying/pulling back at the right-shoulder level.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  3:19:15 PM
03:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  3:17:28 PM
Its P&F chart is still bearish but NCEN is close to breaking out over resistance near $45.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  3:15:25 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:15:01 PM
The OEX has now had its test of mid-channel Keltner support, with a candle shadow dipping down to test that level before prices sprang higher again. We've been spotting divergences all day, so I guess it's no surprise that tentative bullish divergence showed up on that dip: higher price low as compared to the 11:55 low with lower MACD low.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  3:13:46 PM
Interesting.... FLIR Systems (FLIR) is up 8% to $52.46 on big volume (almost 4x normal) with no news to explain the move. This is a breakout over resistance at $50.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  3:10:26 PM
MDC Holdings (MDC), a component in the S&P 600 smallcap index, appears to be breaking out of a bull flag pattern. A trigger over $65.00 might work.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  3:04:52 PM
Ten-year bond yields closed near their high of the day, moving up strongly after breaking above the likely bull flag.

 
 
  Keene Little   6/4/2004,  2:57:22 PM
Linda, per your 14:52 post, it looks like we're all huddled over peering throught the magnifying glass looking for something. We're all going to get clunked on the head by some big move that we didn't see coming (wink).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:54:23 PM
Thanks, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 14:49 post.) I didn't know what the excitement was supposed to be about.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  2:53:05 PM
Mandalay Resort (MBG) is a big winner today, up 10.8% to $60.52 on huge volume of 5.2 million shares (average volume is just 1.4 mln). The company reported earnings last night and beat estimates by 18 cents per share.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:52:38 PM
As Keene mentioned doing earlier today, I've been dialing down to the one-minute OEX chart just so I can see some candles move. There's an inverse H&S-ish pattern there, ascending neckline at about 548.85 currently, but rising. A descending trendline off the 12:45 high today crosses at about 548.90, however. That little one-minute H&S has an upside target only about $0.50 above the neckline cross, so this certainly isn't something to trade. It's something to watch for guidance. Or if you're bored.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  2:49:38 PM
Here Linda- small but workable: Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  2:49:19 PM
Legg Mason (LM) also looks like a bullish candidate if it can breakout over the cloud of moving averages near price resistance at $90.00. Its P&F chart has recently produced a new buy signal with a $98 price target.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  2:47:22 PM
CDWC might be a bullish candidate with the bounce from the $68.00 level. Momentum traders can wait for it to clear recent resistance just under $71.00 and target $75.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  2:45:39 PM
Bulls may want to check out L-3 Communications (LLL). Shares recently broke out over resistance at $63.50 and now they're breaking out over $65.00 and nearing their all-time highs from May 2002.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:45:25 PM
Too bad my satellite television coverage stops about this time every day. (See Jeff's 14:43 post.) I would have liked to have seen that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  2:43:47 PM
Japanse Parliament shot they just showed on CNBC looked like the oil futures pits yesterday. They've go some fight then them for sure.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:42:13 PM
Germany's DAX is also on a P&F sell signal with a price objective of 3200, but the DAX is currently in an "X" column, showing short-term strength. It will take a trade at 4200 for the DAX to create a new buy signal, with the DAX having closed today at 3961.65. Like many of our indices, the DAX has been forming a series of lower highs all year, and the DAX isn't yet ready to challenge the descending trendline off those highs. Today, the DAX closed above the 50-dma at 3932.61, also closing near a 50% retracement of the decline from April's high to May's low. The rising pattern on the DAX since that mid-May low could be a bear flag, but, if so, it needs to turn around soon and head back down. It has some historical resistance in the 3980 region.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  2:40:29 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 127.63 +1.92% .... makes new session high here. First equity index I'm monitoring to do so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:33:56 PM
This time last week, the Nikkei had confirmed a nicely formed reverse H&S on its daily chart and had created a new P&F buy signal with an upside target of 12,050. That afternoon, I expressed some worries about whether the Nikkei would achieve all those targets, however, as I anticipated some pressures on the Nikkei, and it's long had a way of zooming up before resuming a downtrend. The Nikkei went on this week to create yet-another new P&F buy signal after having come back to retest the neckline of its reverse H&S.

Then came yesterday. Yesterday, the Nikkei saw an intraday low 395 points off its day's high and 279 points off the previous day's close. That was enough to reverse that bullish signal and create a new downside target of 10,700. It remains above its 200-dma at 10,840.97 and above 11,000, with 10,800-10,850 support perhaps more technically important than the psychologically important 11,000. RSI is in the neutral 50-ish area. MACD threatens to flatten below signal but has not produced a bearish cross. Instead of the small reverse H&S, now traders might be eyeing a much larger possible regular H&S, formed over this entire half year, with the neckline currently near 10,550, but moving up. I mentioned this possible formation last Friday, too, as well as the pressure that any hint of tightening out of China might put on the Nikkei, in a 3:55 post that detailed my uneasiness about the bullish patterns being seen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  2:25:39 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 347.021 +0.73% ... only equity-based index in our pivot matrix to currently trade abot its DAILY R2.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  2:13:19 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,262 +0.65% ... sheds 25 points in the past 10-minutes and comes back to DAILY R1 with afternoon low of 10,254.95. Either trying to sucker in some short, or cause for beginning to wonder if 10,300 isn't a major sticking point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:11:51 PM
Mid-channel Keltner support for the OEX is at 547.77 on the five-minute chart with other important support just below at 547.55, with comparable support on the fifteen-minute chart at 545.16-545.83.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:09:32 PM
As I type, the SPX has dropped back (maybe eased back might be a better term) below a best-fit descending trendline off its March high and below its 100-dma. The Russell eases back toward 570-ish support. The Dow is pulling back from the day's high, too, perhaps easing below a former supporting trendline that's been in place since October, although that depends on how the trendline is drawn. The Nasdaq has pulled back from today's test of 2000, with the Nasdaq stopping a little more than 4 points away from that number. Still, all remain within reach of those important levels, with daily oscillators showing various degrees of mixed evidence as to most likely direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  2:00:38 PM
In my 13:00 post, I noted that crude futures had seen volatile trading as of 30-minutes earlier. (I'm 30-minutes time delayed.) I noted that such volatile trading was sometimes symptomatic of emotion-based trading and that such trading was sometimes typical of a reversal signal. Crude since made a run up past $39.00, and then pulled back toward $38.90 support. I sure wish I could find an up-to-date feed, but that volatile trading--with five-minute bars showing wider ranges than they had previously--did point to at least an attempt to reverse the losses.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  1:41:36 PM
The OEX is now dropping back below the neckline of the reverse H&S. Guess this reverse H&S isn't working any better than the one formed Wednesday and Thursday, confirmed yesterday. At least, it isn't so far. Those bearish price/MACD divergences on the five-minute chart meant something this time. Perhaps the 30- and 60-minute bearish divergences will, too?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  1:26:03 PM
Keltner channel lines are doing their thing, snaking above the current OEX level. However, resistance still doesn't look firmed up on a Keltner basis, suggesting that it's possible that the OEX could make another run toward 550.50. Before it gets there, however, it has to tug free of the gravitational pull of the current Keltner resistance near 549.75 and then it's going to hit next Keltner resistance at 550.17. So far, it hasn't tugged free of that gravitational pull and five-minute MACD is producing a tentative bearish cross, signaling bearish divergence while it does so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  1:15:56 PM
There was a buy Prog. Premium witnessed from 12:30-12:35. I missed this one but had SPX lifting from 1,125-1,127.

SPX 1,127.23 +0.94%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  1:11:51 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  1:07:32 PM
The volatility indices don't need much prodding to drop, do they? Although the low volumes today keep me wary about the climbing markets, the volatility indices didn't need any convincing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  1:04:36 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  1:00:30 PM
As of a 30-minute ago, crude futures were getting volatile, with bigger five-minute swings than are usual. That type of pattern is typical of emotion-based trading and often accompanies a reversal. However, I have no other evidence that such a reversal might be in progress.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  12:56:16 PM
The Russell 2000 obviously broke above the 568 level that represented a 50% retracement of yesterday's drop. Russell 2000 bulls want to see the Russell 2000 maintain levels above that retracement.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:55:53 PM
Staples (SPLS) might be a covered call candidate. Shares have been trading sideways between $24 and $28 for the last eight months. The stock is currently near the top of its trading range.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:53:26 PM
Ouch! Apparel retailer CACH is down another 7.39% to $22.30 after yesterday's bearish breakdown below the $25.00 mark and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:51:44 PM
EBAY is really resisting attempts at any profit taking after its ramp up from $80 to $90. Shares are up 1.46% to $88.88 after its minor Weds-Thursday profit taking.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  12:51:33 PM
The OEX five-minute chart shows the OEX signaling an upside breakout of the Keltner channels. It's also broken above the neckline of the continuation inverse H&S that I mentioned in my 12:33 post. Let's see if this formation works any better than the confirmed regular H&S that had formed over Wednesday and yesterday, which never began to reach its downside target. We do see bullish divergence as the head was formed. However, it's now time for bulls to begin considering their risks, as a breakout above the Keltner channel can be a valid breakout signal but can also suggest vulnerability to a pullback to central channel support, currently at 547.25, but still rising. This is particularly important since 551 appears to be somewhat firm as resistance and also comes in the middle of that 549-552 resistance zone.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:50:00 PM
AmerisourceBergen (ABC) was on the watch list last night for a breakout over $62.00. Shares are close up 1.42% to $61.85.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:49:07 PM
Merck Co (MRK) is up another 0.79% and is once again trying to breakout over resistance at $48.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:47:38 PM
QQQ $36.58 +1.66% .... achieves DAILY S2 (36.58) ....

SOX.X ... 476.23 +2.75% ... session highs (DAILY R2 ahead 476.89) .... critical intra-day points here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/4/2004,  12:44:08 PM
Speech by Governor Donald L. Kohn
The Outlook for Inflation Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:43:01 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,287.46 +0.89% ... takes out Wednesday's highs. Now in its "zone of resistance" (wasn't after first 2.5 hour of trade) at this point but nearing WEEKLY R1 of 10,301.82.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:37:06 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 191.52 +1.60% ... session high has been 192.02 and under that horizontal 192.18 level.

Overstock.com (OSTK) $35.75 +1.93% ... session high has been $36.45 and just under its similar horizontal level of $36.45.

A matched pair

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:33:09 PM
Day trade long alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.75 +2.75%, stop $37.20, sell the close, which I think will be session highs. Perhaps $38.12.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  12:33:06 PM
I'm seeing H&S and reverse H&S formations everywhere now, with a potential reverse continuation one now visible on the OEX ten-minute chart. Pick your bias, and there's a formation to go along with it.

This last spike has negated that possible regular H&S seen on the five-minute chart, and now tests the neckline of the reverse one on the ten-minute chart as the OEX moves into the 549-552 resistance zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:24:33 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.04 +2.59% ... updated chart I've been using for current 1/2 bullish in the Oct. $15 calls. Link

Again... SWC is a Palladium miner, NOT a gold miner.

Here is a chart of the AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) with 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMA's as a comparison. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  12:16:54 PM
On the OEX, 30- and 60-minute MACD have flattened. I keep looking for a triangle setup, often accompanying a flattened MACD, but I don't see one yet. I don't see any kind of identifiable consolidation pattern on those 30- and 60-minute charts to go along with the flattening MACD. I do see the possible H&S still developing on the OEX five-minute chart, with the head at this morning's high and the neckline possibly at about 547.75.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  12:15:26 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $79.00 +2.59% .... updated 60-minute interval chart and thoughts at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  12:13:53 PM
Current OI call, Boeing (BA) is up 1.71% to $46.89 with a decent bounce off the $46 region.

The move could be on news that Libya has expressed interest in buying U.S. made planes or it could be news that the U.S. government could make a decision on the Boeing air tanker leasing program as soon as January.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  12:00:10 PM
The OEX is now in a zone from which it might bounce. (Note: started as I typed.) If it's in the process of forming a H&S on the five-minute chart, it should find resistance at about 548.50-458.75.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:57:51 AM
Today marks the 15th anniversary of the Tianamen Square massacre in China. Details: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  11:51:30 AM
I wonder how No. Korean wireless companies are doing since the ban was announced.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:49:18 AM
Who knows, Jon. There was some speculation that N.Korea's cell phone ban was a response to their recent train explosion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  11:49:05 AM
The OEX is trying to roll over, but is approaching support near 547.75. There's a possible five-minute H&S building on the five-minute chart, but it hasn't finished its right shoulder yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  11:46:15 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) intra-day chart at this Link and brief explanation of why I thought earlier that OEX was "stronger" index.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  11:45:32 AM
Could be that they got tired of moped and rickshaw accidents, James :)

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:43:47 AM
FYI: Reuters is reporting that N. Korea has banned cell phone use. The ban began on May 25th. No reason for the ban was provided by the government. Mobile phone services were just recently introduced to N. Korea in November 2002.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:31:43 AM
EMC Corp (EMC) is up 3.36% after First Albany upgrades the stock to a buy. Traders might want to give it a second look since shares appear to be breaking out of a bull flag pattern. Look for a move over $11.50.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:28:57 AM
Kmart Holdings (KMRT) has announced that it will sell up to 24 stores to Home Depot (HD) for upwards of $365 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  11:26:24 AM
As of a few minutes ago, volume was still only a miniscule 355 million on the NYSE. It was 515 million on the Nasdaq. Although adv/dec ratios and up vs. down volume ratios show much strength, I'm sure not seeing a lot of commitment in the form of absolute volume. Another reason to be cautious.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:26:01 AM
Maytag Corp (MYG) is down 7.5% to $24.29 after lowering its earnings forecast and announcing a major restructuring.

Maytag "announced a comprehensive business restructuring that consolidates the Hoover Floor Care, Maytag Appliances and Corporate Headquarters organizations. The "one-company" transformation is designed to achieve market-focused speed of execution, to improve Maytag's competitiveness and to achieve an 8 percent operating profit margin goal in the first quarter of 2005. The company also lowered its earnings expectations for the second quarter and full year 2004."

As a result of the transformation, the Hoover brand will join the existing strategic business units within the marketing organization. The units will be Maytag, Jenn-Air, Amana and Hoover, as well as a unit that will include Maytag Housewares and Hoover Diversified Products.

Integration of Hoover and Maytag Appliances into the new organization will eliminate about 20 percent of the salaried workforce, reduce Hoover's North Canton facilities to an R & D and manufacturing site, and downsize Maytag Appliances and corporate headquarters.

"We now expect that earnings will not meet previous expectations for the second quarter and the full year 2004. This is the result of lower than anticipated sales volume at Hoover and Maytag Appliances, coupled with lower factory volume related to balancing inventory levels, as well as higher steel and resin costs. In addition, we expect to incur restructuring charges and asset impairments associated with the comprehensive business restructuring announced today."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  11:23:07 AM
My charting service has decided that we've all worked hard this week and ought to just take a break. It is. Frequently. Be careful to verify what you're seeing on your charts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  11:21:35 AM
There's a danger (to bears) that the Russell 2000 could be building an out-of-proportion reverse H&S on its daily chart, with the neckline at about 575, shoulders at about 560, and head way down at the May low. If so, those shoulders are stunted in proportion to the head, making me question the formation's validity. If it's valid and if there's to be any symmetry in the shoulders' shapes, it shouldn't take more than another couple of days to complete. I don't necessarily have much faith in this formation, but feel duty-bound to report any possibilities I might be seeing.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:09:51 AM
PetMed Express Inc (PETS) is up 16.4% to $11.05 after BusinessWeek magazine named PETS as the #1 company in their Top 100 Hot Growth Companies list.

From the press release:

Ranking PetMed Express #1 in the newly released list, the magazine noted, "The ability to find - and then exploit - a sweet spot in the economy is still the common denominator of our list. Our top company, PetMed Express Inc. (PETS), forged a whole new industry by selling pet medications via e-mail, phone, or fax. Though now under pressure from veterinarians unhappy with losing this profitable business, the company has already become America's largest pet pharmacy."

Founded in 1996, PetMed Express is America's largest pet pharmacy, delivering prescription and non-prescription pet medications, health and nutritional supplements at competitive prices through the PetMed Express catalog, customer service representatives, and on the Internet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  11:08:53 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  11:06:25 AM
Furniture Brands (FBN) issued an earnings warning last night. The company now expects earnings in the 37-39 cent range down from 44-48 cents per share. Analysts were looking for 48 cents per share. FBN said all six of its divisions were seeing lower demand. Shares are down 8.16% to $23.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  11:03:51 AM
Near the close yesterday, I mentioned that the SOX's daily chart showed some mixed characteristics. The SOX was turning down within the descending regression channel in which it had traveled this year, but was at support from a shorter-term and tighter ascending regression channel. Ahead of Intel's update, I thought it difficult for traders to predict the direction that the SOX was likely to go. Here's what's happened: Link Note that the SOX now faces the 50-dma, just overhead at 475.64, with the 200-sma just above the top of the descending regression channel. Daily oscillators had rolled down, but now try to hook back up again. It's still a mixed picture, but I'd certainly be careful near the 200-sma and again at 490, if the SOX should rise that far, as the SOX could roll down again or finally break through that descending regression channel.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  10:59:20 AM
China Telecom (CHA) is up 2.8% to $30.19 after Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to an "out perform".

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  10:54:52 AM
Elizabeth Arden Inc (RDEN) is down 10.8% to $19.09 but up off its lows of the session near $17.61. Last night RDEN reported its April quarter earnings with a loss of 56 cents, which was 1 cent worse than expected. Revenues also showed up light for the quarter. The drop in share price did reverse a bullish P&F chart and a move under $17.50 will be a bearish quadruple bottom breakdown.

Analysts were mixed on the news. One downgraded the stock from a "strong buy" to an "accumulate" while another upgraded the stock to "out perform".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:54:26 AM
MM Open Trade at this Link .... not a lot/significant at this point.

Yesterday, I see that SWC did come right down near $14, but really found a nice bounce from there. That was important support in my book.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:50:09 AM
The TRAN bounces today from the descending trendline off the year's high, but is so far printing an inside day within yesterday's inside-day candle. Indecision shows up here.

 
 
  James Brown   6/4/2004,  10:50:07 AM
Sector update...

Winners:
SOX semiconductors: +2.28%
DDX disk drives: +1.78%
NWX networking: +1.77%
INX Internets: +1.81%
GHA hardware: +1.65%
GSO software: +1.60%

XBD broker-dealers: +1.60%
BTK biotech index: +1.09%

XAL airlines index: +1.93%
XAU gold & silver: +1.21%

Losers:
DJUSHB home builders: -0.65%
OIX oil index: -0.38%
OSX oil services: -0.31%
and...
Copper futures: -1.76%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:50:06 AM
SOX.X 474.31 +2.34% .... has now made session high, but not much action as far as looking like bulls overly eager to get long at this point.

QQQ $36.39.

Bid holds, but not exuberant....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:46:12 AM
Although the Russell 2000 is headed higher today, it has not yet retraced more than 50% of yesterday's range, which would occur at 568. Russell 2000 bulls want the RUT to move above 568 and sustain numbers above that level. Russell bears want the opposite.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:40:13 AM
Has anyone mentioned how light the volume is today? As of a few minutes ago, total volume was only 214 million on the NYSE and 353 million on the Nasdaq. That's not much. Kind of makes me doubt my source.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:37:55 AM
SOX.X 473.36 +2.14% .... hasn't made a new session high at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:36:12 AM

Day trade bearish stop alert for the QQQ $36.42

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:31:32 AM
The OEX reached a new high and the five-minute MACD kept pace, making its own higher high. No bearish divergence there, unless the MACD rolls down now (as it's threatening to do) and repaints itself.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:24:28 AM
Thoughts... if SOX.X takes out morning highs, could rally to WEEKLy Pivot, give further boost to broader averages. First sign of any weakness is below 469 for SOX, but really 466 and DAILY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:23:40 AM
Buy program premium

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:21:19 AM
FWIW, the OEX 15-minute chart showed bearish divergence, Keltner-channel style on the last three swing highs, including this morning's. Bearish divergence offers a warning to be watchful, but price should be the guide and price sometimes continues higher despite those bearish divergences. As Jim said earlier on the Futures side of the Monitor, however, we're seeing bearish divergences on many charts. With that said, however, the OEX's latest five-minute pullback sure looks a lot like a bull flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:20:17 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) intra-day with MONTHLY/WEEKLY at this Link

using MONTHLY Pivot for support right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:14:43 AM
QQQ intra-day chart with 5-MRT overlaid on WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  10:10:12 AM
So far, the OEX has been congregating candles along the descending trendline off the Wednesday high, either in preparation for another push higher or before a descent. TRIN still favors the bullish outlook, although it's trying to rise, but those candles all have spiky upper candles, which supports the rollover thesis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:07:45 AM
QQQ $36.34 +1.% .... did get a 5-minute close below BLUE #1 (which overlaps our MONTHLY 38.2% retracement) and $36.31, but doesn't seem at all eager to backfill much of its morning gap higher at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:06:14 AM
10:04 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:02:07 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 547.49 +0.65% .... has made it above our zone of resistance. Seemingly the stronger market.

BIX.X 346.29 +0.52%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  10:00:41 AM
Dow Industrials 10,252 +0.54% ... unlike the QQQ, the INDU didn't make it into our uppwer zone of resistance in the early going. Seemingly the weeker market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  9:58:56 AM
The Fed's open market desk has announced that it will not be entering the market today, allowing a 2B overnight repo to expire unrefunded.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  9:55:47 AM
QQQ $36.33 .... opening 5-minute bar was from $36.31-$36.41.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:55:30 AM
The OEX hasn't yet been able to sustain numbers over yesterday's high, worrisome to those in bullish plays, but it may be headed up to test that level again. As Jane would warn us, watch TRIN. So far, it's still in the bullish realm. I can't point to a reason why I'm so wary this morning unless it's left over from yesterday's belief that markets would turn down or perhaps a too-heavy reliance on the bearish divergences showing up on the 60-minute and other intraday charts. Still, those divergences warn me to be careful about conclusions as the OEX approaches a known resistance zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  9:53:40 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 471.61 +1.76% .... just off session high of 474.06.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  9:50:59 AM
Day trade short alert for the QQQ $36.27 here, stop $36.42 (just above session high for now), target $36.10 (just above daily pivot).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  9:50:01 AM
QQQ $36.34 +1.02% .... so far has been sitting right in this zone from $36.31 to $36.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:48:48 AM
That hasn't been much of a retracement during the typical first retracement of the day, has it? TRIN appears to be telling the truth this morning, giving us a good heads-up to some underlying bullishness, at least in early going. If in bullish OEX plays, remain watchful of that 549-552 zone, particularly 449 and 551.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/4/2004,  9:47:13 AM
Buy Prog. Premium ... SPX 1,125.25, OEX 548.20, INDU 10,271, QQQ $36.40

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:42:36 AM
I'm sure seeing some bullish signs today, but am finding it difficult to believe them for some reason. If you're feeling bullish here to match the bullishness shown in the advdec and TRIN, remain wary of a possible rollover beneath or from within the 549-552 resistance zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:39:14 AM
The OEX touched the short-term descending trendline off the Wednesday high and has retreated slightly, but not much. We should see the first retracement of the day beginning in about five minutes, and we'll see what happens then, but keep an eye on that 547.75 level as a first sign of either a rollover or renewed strength. The TRIN sure isn't signaling an imminent rollover yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:33:02 AM
The OEX opens all the way up above 546, skipping over several levels of resistance, as I'd expected it might do pre-market. It's charging right up toward the 547 resistance zone now, and toward the 547.75 short-term descending trendline off Wednesday's high. I continue to be wary of the possibility of a pop-and-drop event while remaining open to the possibility that the OEX could charge above all resistance. (See my 9:02 post.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  9:02:55 AM
For more than a week, I'd anticipated that the post-OPEC-decision reaction might be a sell-the-fact one. Yesterday, the OEX did retrace all the previous day's gains, closing just under the 544 support. The OEX--like the SPX, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and Dow--closed beneath its 50-dma after moving above it Wednesday. The OEX confirmed a small H&S that actually formed the right shoulder of one that was later to be confirmed by a move through the neckline. The first, smaller H&S met and exceeded its downside target, a bearish event, but the larger one formed over Wednesday and Thursday has not yet met its downside target. If futures this morning are any guide, it may not, but futures aren't always the best guide.

On the OEX, the retreat turned it below the descending trendline off the March high. Still, the downside wasn't what I expected as it was still mostly contained within the congestion zone the OEX has been building. The OEX remains within striking distance of that descending trendline again and could even test it soon after the open if the strength in the futures sees a follow-through on the open. Five-minute Keltner channel support, fifteen-minute Keltner support, and the 30-minute 100-pma all suggest that the OEX may find next support between 543.20 and the OEX's close yesterday. Last night, I would have said that such a bounce might see next resistance near 545, and then layered from 545.60-546.25, but the open could exceed some of those levels at least. A move above 546.50 would constitute a move back above the neckline of the H&S formed Wednesday and Thursday. Since that bearish formation was confirmed and the neckline has been tested once, technical analysis theory would suggest that it would likely fail again, but that theory might not be taking into account the reaction to Intel's news or our economic numbers. As I type, two pressures on the markets have eased--crude futures and ten-year yields.

Still, I'd be cautious of the possibility of a pop-and-drop developing even if we see early morning strength. The 60-minute chart shows bearish price/oscillator divergence as the OEX was making the 6/02 high, as compared to the 5/27 high: higher high on price, lower high on RSI and MACD. Watch for the possibility of a rollover beneath 550 while remaining open to the possibility of a push above the highest, take-into-account-all-candle-shadows descending trendline off the March high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  8:31:54 AM
8:28am 4 U.S. SOLDERS KILLED IN BAGHDAD BLAST - REUTERS

8:29am U.S. MAY NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 248,000; JOBLESS RATE 5.6%

8:30am U.S. APRIL, MARCH NONFARM PARYOLLS REVISED UP 74,000

8:30am U.S. MAY AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.8 HOURS

8:30am U.S. MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.3%

8:30am U.S. MAY SERVICES PAYROLLS UP 176.000

8:30am U.S. MAY FACTORY WORKWEEK UP TO 41.1 HOURS, 4.7 OT

8:30am U.S. MAY TOTAL HOURS WORKED UP 0.3 PERCENT

8:30am U.S. MAY MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS UP 32,000

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/4/2004,  8:10:34 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of nonfarm payrolls (est. +225K), the unemployment rate (est. 5.6%), hourly earnings (est. .2%) and the average workweek (est. 33.8).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/4/2004,  7:00:47 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened in positive territory, with semi-related stocks such as Tokyo Electronic leading the early gains after Intel's update. Tokyo Electron is a supplier for Intel. Lower crude prices helped add to the positive sentiment, too, as did the news that Moody's was considering raising the credit ratings of four of Japan's department store operators. Retailers climbed in early trading. Working against that positive sentiment was a decline in companies exporting to China. China apparently again asked banks to limit lending, with that action suggesting to some that China might be preparing to raise rates. Similar tactics had led to market declines in late April when it was felt that China might use the early May holidays to raise rates, but after declining through much of the morning and steadying most of the afternoon, the Nikkei zoomed higher after the 2:00 release of the household spending number. Some also mentioned the morning's approach to 11,000 as prompting the buying. The intraday chart suggests the former explanation, however, as the Nikkei steadied after the approach to 11,000, but did not begin climbing until after that afternoon economic release. The Nikkei closed higher by 101 points or 0.92%, at 11,128.05.

By the end of the day, automakers had moved to the forefront as leaders of market gains. Many banking stocks had declined. Many techs, especially semi-related techs, gained. As I read the reports, however, it appeared that many gainers were rebounding after days of declines, questioning whether at least some of the gains might have been oversold bounces.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, but most of the ones we commonly watch closed higher. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.94% and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.39%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.61%. Although Harbin Brewery fell 6.7% after SABMiller withdrew its hostile bid, leaving Anheuser-Busch the winner in the battle for control of the company, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.78%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, down 0.09%.

With the exception of Russian's Moscow Times, all European bourses currently trade higher, with tech stocks such as Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and ASML given the credit for sending the markets higher. Articles mention light volume ahead of U.S. economic numbers this morning, however. In Germany, April's manufacturing index rose a much higher-than-expected 2.5% over March's number, with a 0.7-0.9% gain expected. Foreign orders gained 3.8% and domestic orders, 1.2%. One article mentions that this is the largest gain in 15 months.

In stock-specific news, ASML benefited from the positive sentiment engendered by Intel's update, and also benefited when Morgan Stanley raising its earnings forecast for the company for 2004 and 2005. When Swiss Nestle was reported to be interested in buying General Mills, Nestle retreated. Troubled Swiss staffing firm Adecco held steady after Chairman John Bowmer said that he was stepping down. BAE Systems declined in early trading after announcing its agreement to buy tank-manufacturer Alvis.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 13.90 points or 0.31%, at 4449.30. The CAC 40 was higher by 24.86 points or 0.68%, at 3679.23. The DAX had climbed 30.44 points or 0.78%, to 3947.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/3/2004,  9:37:29 PM
Dorsey/Wright Sector Bellcurve week-to-week changes at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/3/2004,  8:13:34 PM
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