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  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  6:41:59 PM
SPX Option Chain sorted by most active at today's close. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  6:14:48 PM
Current OPEN positions at this Link

Will have close eye on the dollar in tomorrow's pivot matrix as well as SWC.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  5:31:50 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  4:57:08 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  4:17:30 PM
QQQ 04:15 close was $36.79.

SOX.X went out at 471.30.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  4:13:12 PM
Buy Program Premium .... "similar to Thursday?"

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:58:22 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) 13.57 +1.42% .... one of the better closes to the bell since going long.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:57:47 PM
The OEX continues to test the 15-minute 100/130-pma's, with those averages at 552.67 and 552.34, respectively. It looks as if the OEX is going to end the day with a candle with a tall upper shadow, but one that's produced within a consolidation pattern of some sort--continuation or reversal--so that the bearish implications of that upper shadow may not apply as strongly. It looks as if I'm going to have to go on posting that daily chart I've been posting for a while now (see my 9:47 post), until the OEX decides what it's going to do next. It's possible that it will stay within this consolidation pattern until after opex or even that it rattles around within some sort of congestion zone until June 30, but I certainly don't like to think about that last possibility!

I'll be out for a day's vacation tomorrow. Try to see if you can get a breakout before I get back, okay?

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:54:30 PM
QQQ $36.77 +1.23% ... slips back below WEEKLY Pivot... here's intra-day chart, tie with SOX.X at 475. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:48:09 PM
Semi Index (SOX.X) 471.44 +1.28% ... like a pingpong ball at this Link

QQQ $36.85 +1.41% ... afternoon low was $36.65

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:45:44 PM
I think it was in response to a reader's question that Jane brought up the "trend of the TRIN" a while ago. Jonathan, also a frequent TRIN watcher, may have also discussed that topic. That TRIN trend was showing us a gradual upward slope all day today, as both Jane and I have mentioned, urging caution to bulls even while price action was still bullish. In the OEX's case, I've been suggesting that bullish trades follow the OEX higher with their stops all day, since the Keltners gave a breakout signal early this morning. Today, the OEX cut just as wide a swath around 557 resistance as it did around 547 support yesterday, never coming within a point of either of those two levels that I'd urged readers to plan around. So far, the OEX still trades within the possible bull flag/possible broadening formation that it's been in for much of this month, and traders should expect choppy behavior while it stays within it.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:44:48 PM
VIX.X 15.28 -4.91% ... right back at its opening tick highs of 15.35 and sitting here.

SPX 1,131.12 +0.51% afternoon and session low of 1,128.34 finds the buyers at WEEKLY S1 (1,128.83).

"Think fast... act slowly..."

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:33:02 PM
The OEX bounced right back up to those 15-minute 100/130-pma's after falling through them, but only high enough to retest them. Which will prove stronger--their supposed resistance or the supposed gap support just beneath?

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:23:08 PM
The OEX tests this morning's gap to see if it provides support.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:22:33 PM
Insurance (IUX.X) 321.81 -0.81% ... inches red.. follow Brokers 123.43 -0.91%

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:21:55 PM
The OEX is dropping below 552.80-553 support, with the 100-dma at 552.98, and with these other forms of support congregating there: Link Bulls want to see that support hold. Currently, the OEX tests the 15-minute 100/130-pma's, at 552.67 and 552.33, with those MA's proving important over the last month. A sustained move below them this afternoon is not going to be a bullish outcome!

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:21:29 PM
03:13 PM EDT Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:20:01 PM
Here we go.... with a little volatility... Triple Witch is back again.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:19:23 PM
Sell Program Premium ... first of the day. SPX 1,132.64 , QQQ $36.75 , VIX.X 15.14

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  3:09:52 PM
Today the SOX has been testing its 50-dma and also the underside of the short-term rising regression channel in which it had traded since early May. That ascending regression channel is within a larger descending regression channel that's been in place all year and the SOX retreated from its test of both of these forms of resistance. Unless the SOX can climb above the 50-dma and then the 200-dma, it's in danger of rolling down through that longer-term descending regression channel again. Another fall back through the 30-dma and then through 460 suggests a descent toward 454. MACD signaled bearish price/MACD divergence on the last swing high earlier this month, but that could still be erased if the MACD turns up again as price does, too. There's no sign of that yet, and 21(3)3 stochs have rolled down through the signal line. This morning's unsuccessful test of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's produced a possible head for a H&S formation on the 30-minute chart, with a right shoulder left to go. Still, a confirmation of that formation and a subsequent reaching of the downside target will only constitute a retest of the gap from this morning, so I would try to keep my eyes open and my biases out of the way as I watched the SOX action, waiting for either an upside break or a downside one that would give a clue as to future direction. There's been an upturn in the 30-dma, a faint positive sign for the bulls, but something tells me to pay attention to that sign. Maybe it's just my caution, because I can find lots of signs of a possible downturn.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:09:45 PM
QQQ $36.84 +1.45% ... reason for thinking swing trade short is that recent sessions have seen gap openings, where the damage has been mostly done at the open.

With SOX.X 471.29 +1.25% finding some resistance back higher at 475 "max pain" then my bias below that level bleeds to the QQQ.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  3:06:08 PM
Keep an eye on EBAY. Traders are buying the dip yesterday to its 21-dma, which just happened to coincide with the $85.00 level. Aggressive traders can try and jump the gun and go long with a move over $88.00 or $89.00 (both minor resistance). Momentum traders might do better to look for a move over $90.00.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  3:05:45 PM
03:00 PM EDT SPX Option Chain at this Link

Here's earlier benchmark from 10:53 AM EDT Link

Only real quick observation I can make is that the June 1,050 Calls move up notably, but with VIX.X now at 14.93 again, tough to interpret (could be furhter buyer, but convincional wisdom tells me seller)

  James Brown   6/15/200,  3:02:30 PM
If you're interested in a utilities play then check out AES. The stock is up 3.76% and breaking out over resistance at $9.55-9.60.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:59:47 PM
Nextel (NXTL) looks tempting here with a 2.45% gain and a breakout over its 50 and 200-dma and resistance at $24.50. This might be better as a covered call candidate. -- Just don't look at the P&F chart. It's bearish with a $15 target.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:56:57 PM
Swing trade short alert for the QQQ $36.84 +1.4% here, stop $37.08, target $36.25.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:55:34 PM
We tried to play Goldman Sachs (GS) short in the last couple of weeks with a trigger under $90.00 but it never triggered. The stock looks weak again here and a trigger under $90.00 could work but keep in mind that earnings are expected on June 22nd (that's a week from now).

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:53:22 PM
$TRIN still has that gentle slant upward, but is still neutral at 0.84. The trend has been upward most of the day.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:51:32 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) is up 2.41% on strong volume (88.8 million shares) and confirming yesterday's breakout over the simple 200-dma. Jeff mentioned MSFT this morning in the monitor (9:51 post).

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:50:20 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 124.46 -0.08% ... just checked its June "Max Pain" at 125.00.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:48:35 PM
Broker/Dealers Index (XBD.X) 124.43 -0.11% ... inches red. First equity-based index to do so today.

Benchmarking the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 348.55 +1.20% here, where session high of 349.07 came just shy of its DAILY R2 (349.42).

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:47:38 PM
Dow-component Procter & Gamble (PG) continues to be a pillar of strength. Shares are hitting new multi-year highs and bouncing from old resistance, now new (minor) support, at $110. Remember that PG splits 2-for-1 on June 21st.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:45:51 PM
QQQ Option Chain ... most active when QQQ trading $36.88 at this Link

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:42:48 PM
We've been watching Altria Group (MO) for a roll over in its recent bounce and it has finally occurred. Shares broke down under support at $48.00 yesterday and today's early morning bounce failed at the $48 level. The $45 level would be my first target.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:42:21 PM
I could have re-posted my 9:47 post and the chart linked to it dozens of times today, with the post being just as up-to-date and the OEX value being only a few cents off. The OEX still hasn't broken decisively to the upside or downside out of that possible bull flag/possible broadening formation on the daily chart. Until it does, action could be choppy and unpredictable, with the opex week exaggerating that tendency. Until it does, don't pay too much attention to the little micro-moves.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:40:29 PM
QQQ $36.91 +1.62% .... most active options are Jun $36 put $0.10, Jun $37 call $0.20 and the June $37 put $0.30.

Up here near $37, I'd have to think SELLING the $36 put, SELLING the $30 call (net $0.30 to account) and then BUYING the $37.00 put (net out $0.30 to account).

  James Brown   6/15/200,  2:40:00 PM
Morgan Stanley (MWD) is down 1.39% and still falling. Today marks the fourth decline in a row after producing a small double-top under its simple 200-dma. Its MACD has produced a new sell signal and you can see volume rising as the stock declines. If MWD breaks support at $50.00 it might be a bearish candidate.

MWD is expected to report earnings on June 22nd.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:36:26 PM
Lehman Bros. (LEH) 74.30 -2.32% and Morgan Stanley (MWD) $51.46 -1.43% appear to be drags on XBD.X

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:34:45 PM
As I warned earlier today, OEX bulls should now be watchful for the possibility of a rounding over near or below the 554.80-555 right-shoulder level of a possible H&S on the five-minute chart. A move much above 555.20 will negate that possible formation.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:32:42 PM
Keltner resistance lines continue to thin out above the OEX on the five-minute chart, clearing the way for a possible rise up to test the day's high, but support lines are thinning out, too, until 553.20-553.37.

  Jane Fox   6/15/200,  2:32:28 PM
Linda's post at 13:57 got me to thinking just how close the VXN and QQQ trades together. Here is a perf chart from stockcharts.com giving a pretty good overview. I will zoom into a more current timeframe later. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:31:49 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 126.60 +0.02% .. just noting rather "prolonged" intra-day decline after matching morning high at 12:45. Threatens to turn red here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:30:39 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:21:52 PM
Day trade bullish stop alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.60

SOX.X 472.84 +1.58% ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:21:21 PM
VIX.X 14.88 -7.4% ... came back to 14.95.

SPX 1,134.73 +0.83% ... slips back below WEEKLY Pivot.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:18:57 PM
The OEX attempts to steady at 554.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:12:30 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X 473.22 +1.66% ... screen capture from 02:00-02:05 on 5-minute bars. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  2:03:03 PM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs $37.72 +1.94% .... to break even.

Expect anything at this point.

Will follow with the SOX.X intra-day chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY... SOX.X resistance coming from its WEEKLY 61.8% at 474.76, but also June "Max Pain" right here at 475.00.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  2:01:22 PM
Keltner resistance on the five-minute OEX chart is thinning out again, not clumped together quite so tightly, which sometimes suggests that the OEX might attempt another run higher. You know the levels to watch if that should happen. We've been watching for them all day.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:57:01 PM
Comment and chart from a trusted subscriber: Watching 20.25 on the $VXN! Been a sell signal last two times. Link Thanks for the observation, T.G.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:51:31 PM
If any of you OEX traders entered bearish plays on the thought that the OEX might roll down from somewhere beneath 557, watch out for possible support from 553-554. I know I'm sick of mentioning possible H&S and reverse H&S formations and you're probably sick of hearing about them, but if the OEX should steady at 553-554 and then attempt a rise again, bullish traders should be watchful for a possible rollover from 554.80-555 or below, as that could suggest a possible right-shoulder formation in the making on the five-minute chart.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:45:39 PM
The OEX didn't get very far in its attempt to test 5-minute Keltner resistance. It's sinking, dragging Keltner support lower along with it. If this continues, it will drag the shortest-length Keltner channel down with it, suggesting but not promising a test of central channel support, with that support now at 553. That shortest-length channel began a rollover earlier today and then turned right back up again, so this is a possibility and not necessarily a probability.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:35:29 PM
The OEX has pulled back below Keltner lines on the five-minute chart, so that those lines now represent resistance, with that resistance ranging from 555.04-555.50. Let's see if it holds.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  1:30:01 PM
Linda, as a young 'un, I can only say that at least they're talking about your retirement at all. I have difficulty imaging how that will be a possibility when our turn comes around. I believe that what we're learning here is the best option available (no pun intended).

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  1:29:01 PM
SPX 1,135.85 +0.93% ... comes back to test WEEKLY Pivot here.

VIX.X 14.83 -7.71% .....

Thinking if SPX is going to make 1,140 today, should find support then kick back higher.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:28:05 PM
I don't know about you young'uns out there, but we baby boomers couldn't have been too cheered by Greenspan's specter of worries about retirement income coupled with possible drawbacks in the housing market, taking away part of the cushion some have built up against those retirement years.

  Keene Little   6/15/200,  1:18:39 PM
Linda, like you I'm waiting to see if the market will move after Greenspan finishes sticking his foot in his mouth, er, I mean giving us his words of wisdom, so the market can decide whether he said anything to help or hurt the market.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:17:48 PM
At 348.91, the BIX rises into the 349-351 resistance zone.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  1:14:25 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  1:08:12 PM
The Nasdaq is above 2000, above the 100-dma, now ready to challenge the 2010-2015 level and then the 6/08 high of 2023.54. Nasdaq bulls want to see the Nasdaq back above both those last two resistance levels to prevent the possibility that it could roll down into a right shoulder on a potential H&S formation on the daily chart. The bigger pattern on the daily and weekly charts looks like a bearish right triangle, making that potential H&S look more ominous. The 21(3)3 stochastics, more trustworthy than the 5(3)3's, try to hook up again with today's rise in prices, but really we have to watch price. Either the Nasdaq is going to break out of that triangle by moving above the descending trendline off the year's high and then confirming by moving above the 6/08 high or it's going to roll over again and risk confirming the H&S instead. We just have to wait and see. Like another writer this morning--Keene? Jane?--I'm shuddering at the possibility that we could be playing pin-the-indices-to-the-numbers already this week with today's big-range day perhaps followed by a tight-range day tomorrow. I'm hoping, though, that whenever Greenspan finishes speaking, markets will get in gear to make some kind of move upon which the markets can build.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  1:06:57 PM
01:02 PM EDT Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:58:40 PM
Another clarification for me: When I talk about the 557 level for the OEX being resistance, I'm talking about the zone around 557, not necessarily 557 exactly. For example, the 15-minute Keltner chart shows that 557.24 is upper resistance. The 6/08 high was 556.88, not 557, so through various methods of determining resistance, we know that the area around 557 is important, but resistance could show up just below it or just above it, too.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:52:35 PM
The Russell 2000 draws closer to the 50-dma. I thought some clarification of my 11:21 post might be needed. Even if the RUT were to round over into the right shoulder of a H&S formation, this isn't necessarily a development that I would expect to occur the moment the index hit that 50-dma or the further resistance that's a little higher. A pattern forming on the daily chart might see a small-bodied candle tomorrow at the top of today's range, for example, and maybe another one the next day, forming the top of that right shoulder. While the Russell 2000 could recoil from a test of that MA, of course, it could take several days to test it or the slightly higher resistance. It could also spring higher, of course, negating the possible H&S formation.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:52:33 PM
OI call play Boeing (BA) rallied to $49.90 this morning after winning the $3.9 billion Navy contract to replace their P3 submarine-hunting aircraft. Unfortunately, shares have slipped back to the $49 level.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:50:52 PM
OI put play SYMC is down another 3.9% to $41.31 as investors react to news that software titan Microsoft (MSFT) might enter the anti-virus software market with their own product.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:48:24 PM
On the daily OEX chart, the 5(3)3 stochastics are doing their best to move back above the trendline of higher lows and produce another bullish kiss. They're not there yet, but I'm watching this development at the OEX again makes a try for 557.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:44:36 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,136.85, QQQ $36.94

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:40:38 PM
Wind River Systems (WIND) is up 8.75% and breaking out over resistance at $10.75 on better than average volume. I can't find catalyst for the move.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:39:56 PM
Day trade long alert the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.60 here, stop $37.42, target $37.95.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:38:10 PM
VIX.X 14.86 -7.46% ... lows of the session....

SPX.X 1,135.82 +0.93% ... QQQ $36.87 +1.51% ...

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:35:19 PM
Nike Inc (NKE) is breaking out over resistance at $72.00 and its simple 50-dma. Next resistance is at $75 and again at $78.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:32:56 PM
Eaton Corp (ETN) continues its climb higher and is nearing major resistance at $62.00. A breakout over $62 would create a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:31:52 PM
The Russell 2000 climbs ever closer to the 50-dma at 570.41. If it does reach that moving average, it will have erased all of yesterday's losses, but then will be facing strong resistance from that MA, as well as from historical resistance near 573-575.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:31:30 PM
August Light, Sweet Crude futures (cl04q) $37.49 -1.02% (30-min delayed) ... after trading session high earlier of $38.70, pretty good reversal lower.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:30:15 PM
Schlumberger (SLB) is another oil service stock. SLB is up 1.9% and breaking out over its 50-dma while inching higher toward round-number, psychological resistance at $60.00. A breakout over $60.00 could be used as a trigger to target the next resistance level near $65.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:29:08 PM
It sounds as if Greenspan and the Bank of England's Governor King have similar views about the housing markets in the two countries. Almost makes you wonder whether it's not time to sell the house and try leasing for a while until housing prices settle, doesn't it?

  James Brown   6/15/200,  12:28:25 PM
Smith Intl Inc (SII), an oil services company, is looking pretty bullish with today's 2.8% breakout over its 40 and 50-dma's and the $51.50 resistance level.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:24:15 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Thursday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:14:58 PM
On the OEX five-minute chart, a potential H&S failed to produced the needed right-shoulder rollover, with the OEX instead shooting up past the right-shoulder level and then above the head to reach a new high of the day. That certainly feels like 2003 when all potentially bearish formations were resolved by upside breakouts, but I continue to advise bullish OEX players to have a plan in place for handling 557, if that should be approached. Bullish players should at the least follow the OEX higher with their stops, even if 557 should never be touched. The breakouts on the Keltner channels suggest vulnerability to a pullback to mid-channel support, with that support currently at 552.28 but rising quickly, and other strong Keltner support at 551.98, but also rising quickly.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:11:40 PM
SOX.X 471.47 +1.28% ... just above MONTHLY Pivot, while QQQ $36.80 +1.3% a penny below WEEKLY Pivot.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:09:47 PM
VIX.X 14.96 -6.9% and back at session low. SPX 1,135.27 and WEEKLY Pivot.

tough trade long or short here.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  12:05:44 PM
It does, Linda, but given the opex week action and the presence of Greenspan on the wire today, there are more complicating factors. I'd be surprised to see a sharp fall from here, but the 30 min upphase is getting toppy, which could limit gains in the afternoon.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  12:03:34 PM
In Keene's 11:51 post on the Futures side of the Monitor, he mentioned that lately we'd seen mornings like this resolve in very different afternoon action. That uncertainty about what to expect next is exacerbated by this being opex week, but I've got the answer for our dilemma. A week or so ago, Jonathan told us that his gut feeling was that the markets would repeat their typical 2003-type action--steadying during mid-day and zooming up in the afternoon--a prediction that was realized in that afternoon's trade. So, what does your gut say today, Jonathan? Does today feel like 2003 to you?

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  12:00:14 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,135.04 , QQQ $36.79, VIX.X 15.05

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  11:55:49 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

QQQ traders may also be alert should VIX.X DIVERGE from Thursday's trade.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:53:29 AM
Today has so far been the opposite of yesterday, Keltner-wise, on the OEX, with the OEX giving one breakout signal after the other on that chart. Five-minute MACD isn't participating, however, with it flattening from its former descending path, but not yet having produced a bullish cross or risen to new highs itself. The histogram is growing less negative, however. Bullish traders, keep following the OEX higher with the stops, and have a plan in mind if the OEX should approach 557, a level from which a breakout to test 563 or a rollover might begin.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:49:00 AM
Greenspan looks pretty bored looking at that chart of job recovery.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  11:48:51 AM
Bearish day trade stop alert for QQQ $36.80 +1.32%

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:47:28 AM
Factset Research Systems (FDS) is up 5.4% to $45.79 after reporting its Q3 May quarter earnings this morning. Results were pretty much in-line with estimates but the company raised its forecasts for the next quarter. FDS now sees Q4 revenues in the $65.5-67.0 million range, which is above estimates at $64.5 million.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:43:41 AM
Traders bullish the Nasdaq stocks don't want to see the Nasdaq round down below the 100-dma (currently at 2001.40) or below 2012, the approximate site of a descending trendline off the year's high, as either could signal a rounding down into a right shoulder of a possible H&S formation on the daily chart, with the neckline approximately trailing the 200-sma. Instead, bullish traders want to see the Nasdaq break out above those levels and then above the 6/08 high of 2023.54. On my daily chart for the Nasdaq, the index appears to have settled into a bearish right triangle since January, with a descending top trendline and a flattish bottom at about 1878-1900, depending on which you consider the most significant. That's typically a formation that breaks to the downside, but we should watch what price does and not what formations suggest it might do. Those formations prepare us and allow us to make plans for certain contingencies.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  11:40:22 AM
I agree, Linda. The explosion was first announced near 10AM, but reaction was initially muted.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:39:52 AM
Apple Computer (AAPL) is up 2.87% to $30.98 and new 3 1/2 year highs. The company launched its iTunes (online) Music Store for Britain, France and Germany today.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:36:21 AM
Although I'm time-delayed on the crude futures, I noticed a big spike in prices at about 10:30, a spike that appeared to subside immediately afterward, although anything could have happened during the ensuing 30 minutes. Here's an announcement that might have caused that (I think) temporary spike: Link

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:34:24 AM
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) raised its earnings guidance this morning. ITW now sees profits of $1.14-1.18 versus its prior forecasts of $1.09 and analysts' estimates of $1.12. Unfortunately, shares are down 0.82% to $92.20 after being downgraded on valuation this morning. Bulls might want to look for a bounce from the $90.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:32:26 AM
Volume spikes this afternoon (well, this afternoon in Germany) have sent the DAX up to retest 4000 level from below, with a high of 3995.43. What's amazed me, however, is the FTSE 100's reaction to our CPI number, with the FTSE climbing afterward, too, although this bourse isn't known as being export-heavy, I don't believe. The Bank of England's Governor King was out pounding the table on the need to contain housing prices, signaling that the Bank of England will raise rates again, in statements both before and after this morning's release of an economic number showing the U.K.'s consumer prices rising 1.5% from the year-ago period and 1.2% from the previous month. Yet while its reaction was more muted than that of the DAX, the FTSE 100 seemed to take cheer from our data along with other, more export-heavy bourses.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:26:44 AM
Charles Schwab (SCH) said that May trading volumes were down 15% from April.

Knight Trading (NITE) said its May trading volumes were down nearly 25% from April.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:21:58 AM
On the Russell 2000 chart, I've been watching for the possibility that the Russell 2000 might rise to retest the 50-dma, as it almost did today with the rise within four points of that MA, but then round over at or below that moving average again. That's because there's a possibility for a slanting-neckline H&S on the Russell 2000's daily chart with the left shoulder at the 6/02 high, the head at the 6/07-08 highs, and the right shoulder now in the process of being formed. The neckline roughly coincides with the 30-dma, but I sure would want to wait until a move through the 200-sma just below that before I considered any such formation confirmed. The 21(3)3 stochastics have produced a bearish kiss and have rolled down out of territory indicating overbought conditions, but RSI has hooked back up within a descending path and is in the neutral range. It's not clear whether the Russell 2000 will be more likely to complete and confirm that H&S or push past the 100-dma and the early June high, a conclusion that's complicated by the Russell 2000 reshuffling, but that's what I'm watching.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  11:19:57 AM
Buy Prog. Premium SPX 1,134.02 ... QQQ $36.73

VIX.X 15.18

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  11:16:01 AM
Day trade short alert .... for the QQQ $36.72 here, stop $36.80, target a quick little decline to $36.54.

  Jim Brown   6/15/200,  11:08:57 AM
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Nomination hearing Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  11:04:08 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   6/15/200,  11:02:20 AM
Allergan (AGN) is edging higher toward resistance at $91 after winning a Botox trademark infringement suit for $1.5 million.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  11:00:17 AM
TRIN is rising, but not enough to alarm bulls yet. Advdec is flattening, but not enough to alarm bulls yet. However, as I stated in my 9:47 post, if that's a bull flag on the daily OEX chart, it sure doesn't look as if there's been a clear-cut breakout. The OEX keeps moving above 554, but then dropping back below that level, with 15-minute candles mostly all showing upper shadows this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:59:20 AM
SPX Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Will use as a near-term benchmark for now, but will come back to later. Track any changes in volume as session progresses and VIX.X changes. Look for an expiration-related trade toward the close.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:59:16 AM
OI call play JNJ is down 1.08% to $56.39 after Bear Stearns downgraded the stock to "peer perform".

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:55:54 AM
Yesterday Gateway (GTW) hit new multi-month lows after rival DELL announced they would go after GTW's lucrative plasma TV market. Today shares of GTW are up 9.8% to $4.03 per share after raising its earnings guidance.

GTW is raising estimates to a loss of 13-14 cents versus its previous guidance of a 15-cent loss. Revenues are expected to hit $860-880 million versus its previous forecast of $798 million.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:49:02 AM
VIX.X 15.22 -5.28% .... intra-day 5-minute bar chart. Seeing that similar little "pop" up in VIX.X from just under 15.00 as I observed on Thursday afternoon from 01:20-01:25 PM EDT.

Again... SPX right at this 1,135 level.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:47:39 AM
Consumer electronics retailer Circuit City (CC) reported earnings this morning and beat estimates by 5 cents. Analysts were looking for a loss of 8 cents per share and CC reported a loss of 3 cents. Total sales for the first quarter ending May 31st rose 6.9% to $2.07 billion. Comparable store sales rose 6.4%.

The company also announced that its BoD had approved an additional $200 million to its stock buyback program, upping the total amount to $400 million.

Shares of CC are down 1.39% to $12.75. There is no reaction in larger rival Best Buy Co (BBY).

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:42:37 AM
DJ Home Construction (DJUSHB) 573.38 +2.21% .... is correct price. Was incorrect at 10:10 Market Watch.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:39:16 AM
Yesterday Morgan Stanley raised their '04 GDP forecast to 4.3%.
Today Lehman Brothers is raising their GDP forecasts to 4.8%.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:37:04 AM
July crude oil contracts are up 2.15% (81 cents) to $38.40 per barrel.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:31:42 AM
I'm also noticing that oil & gas giant ExxonMobil (XOM) is up 1.18% and breaking out over resistance in the 44.00-44.25 range. These are new two-year highs.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:29:29 AM
Those interested in trading natural gas stocks might want to check out Williams Cos (WMB). Shares of WMB are breaking out over the $12.00 level today with a 2.64% gain.

WMB is out performing rivals DYN and EP.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  10:29:28 AM
After closing below 3000 yesterday, the TRAN charged above 3000 again today. It's far outstripped the cluster of moving averages between 2895.57 and 2930, however, and so I would expect either a consolidation period, perhaps while the TRAN travels roughly between 2990-3060, while those averages play catch-up a bit or a retracement nearer to the averages. That's based entirely on an (eyeball-only) observation of the TRAN's usual swing away from those averages, and the TRAN may have other ideas, based on other information.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:27:25 AM
The XNG natural gas index is up 1.92% and breaking out over resistance at 235. The group is hitting new 3-year highs.

  James Brown   6/15/200,  10:24:40 AM
Hmm.. if you were listening to CNBC a minute ago they said there were 14% more millionaires this year and 1 out of 125 of us is a millionaire.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:21:22 AM
SPX Option Chain has the look that traders are selling the June 1,125 puts (SPTRE) $2.20 to the top of the most active options (4,041) and buying the Jun 1,140 calls (SPTFH) $3.00 (2,603)

VIX.X 14.99 -6.72% ... SPX 1,135.29 +0.88%

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  10:19:51 AM
While the OEX made a new high of the day, the two-minute MACD did not. I'm micro-analyzing here, but just worried on behalf of bullish traders. So far, TRIN remains bullish as does the trend of the advdec line. The first retracement of the day was modest. While Keltner channels show that risk has shifted onto bullish plays, they show a perhaps-valid breakout signal, too, and bullish players should continue following the OEX higher with their stops. They should have a plan in mind for how they'll handle the test of 557.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  10:12:25 AM
New high of the day for the OEX.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:12:09 AM
10:10 Market Watch at this Link

When I went through my "inflation checklist" late yesterday in the MM, I thought to myself that Treasuries seemed a little oversold. Should have done something about it, but didn't. BIG move in Treasuries this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  10:09:37 AM
An overnight repo of 4.25B has been announced, with no expiries for a net addition in that amount.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  10:08:11 AM
Affymetrix (AFFX) $29.27 +7.61% Link ... Company announced late yesterday that it had reached a licensing agreement with Oxford Gene Technology to convert AFFX's non-exclusive license to Oxford's patents to a fully paid-up license in return for a one time payment to Oxford Gene. AFFX will make a payment of approx. $42 million to Oxford over 10-years and will release $20.5 million in previously accrued and expensed royalty payments to Oxford, with total cash transfer placed at approx. $62.5 million. AFFX says transaction will be immediately accretive, and as a result raises its fiscal 2004 earnings guidance to $0.60 from $0.50.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  10:01:38 AM
Here's what I'm seeing on the OEX 15-minute chart, with the blue 100-ema and green 130-ema shown: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  9:51:38 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.34 +1.63% Link ... Goldman Sachs saying it expects MSFT to address its huge cash position either on earnings call (July 22) or annual meeting with investors (July 29) and while firm estimates MSFT to repurchase $10 billion in stock, which would likely add about $0.025 per share in earnings on annual basis, Goldman things company could surprise and announce $40 billion stock buyback, which would add $0.10 in earnings per share on annual basis. Sees both as catalyst into quarterly earnings.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  9:50:47 AM
A 50% retracement of the OEX zoom higher from yesterday afternoon's low to this morning's high lies at about 551.17. Bulls need to be aware that the OEX could retrace as much as 50% of that gain and still be performing bullishly on an intraday basis, assessing their ability to weather such a pullback. Doesn't mean it will occur, but you sure need to know if you can weather that pullback before you even know if this has been a bullish move or a fake-out one.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  9:48:30 AM
*DJ Univ Michigan Mid June Sentiment Said 95.2; 90.2 May

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  9:48:15 AM
Michigan Sentiment 95.2

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  9:47:34 AM
Here's how the OEX looks on a daily chart: Link If that's a bull flag, it sure doesn't look to me as if there's yet been a breakout to the upside. That means that the OEX is still contained within a consolidation formation of some type or another (bull flag or broadening?) with the outcome as yet undetermined. Don't get married to any one position or bias. I could see 557 tested or could see a rollover from here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  9:45:39 AM
Market Volatility VIX.X 15.27 -4.97% ... back the other way this morning.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  9:42:38 AM
The OEX is edging over the descending trendline off the 6/08 high. Bulls want to see it hold over that trendline, or at least above yesterday morning's gap level, in the first retracement of the day, soon to begin. That pullback since the 6/08 high has the look of a broadening formation instead of a typical bull flag, so its interpretation isn't as clear as would be a bull flag. That broadening can be a sign of emotion-based trading, and that's never as amenable to technical analysis as we would like. It's usually more typical of distribution than accumulation, but we sure saw some instances last year when accumulation was behind the broadening formations.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  9:38:33 AM
Red Hat (RHAT) $23.49 -3.33% Link ... lower after previewing Q1 results ahead of Thursday's quarterly earnings. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2005, Red Hat reported sales of a total of 98,000 subscriptions of Red Hat Enterprise Linux, comprised of 75,000 subscriptions for enterprise IT markets and 23,000 subscriptions for HPC and hosting markets. This reflects a sequential increase of 14,000 subscriptions or 23% in the number of Red Hat Enterprise Linux subscriptions sold into enterprise IT markets and a sequential overall increase of 13% in the total number of subscriptions sold, in each case, as compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2004. Average subscription rates for subscriptions sold into enterprise IT markets in the first quarter were $430 per subscription per year.

RHAT also expects to report net income of over $10.0 million, or $0.05 per share for the first quarter, a sequential increase of over 100% compared to $5.0 million in reported net income in the previous quarter. Full GAAP operating income for the first quarter will be in the range of $4.7 million. Excluding stock-based compensation of approximately $1.6 million, operating income for the first quarter will be in the range of $6.3 million, or approximately 15% of revenues.

Weighing on stock was company's announcement that current CFO Kevin Thompson is leaving to pursue other interest.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  9:38:02 AM
Yesterday, the OEX gapped below the 15-minute 100/130-pma's: today, it gapped up to the 15-minute 130-pma and then began climbing. During the first five minutes of trade, the OEX ranged from 551.48 to 553.29. It has already created a breakout signal on the five-minute Keltner charts, something that's particularly risky for bulls on the first half-hour of the day, so those bulls need to be raising their stops to follow the OEX higher. The breakout signal can be valid, but now bulls must weigh the risk of a pullback. A test of 554, the upper resistance of the possible bull flag, now appears to be in the making.

  Jeff Bailey   6/15/200,  9:32:49 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $13.53 +1.12% Link .... Atex Media announced it has selected IPIX's IPIX AdMission platform for enhanced photo advertising. Link

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  9:06:56 AM
I apologize in advance for the length of this post. There's a reason that in my fiction-writing life after the market hours that I'm a novelist and not a short-story writer. All day yesterday, I kept warning bearish OEX traders to have a plan in mind as the OEX approached 547. Perhaps I should have said "as the OEX cuts a wide swatch around 547" instead, because the low of the day was at 548.18. A late-day bounce brought the OEX up off that low of the day, but could not bring it all the way up to mid-channel Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart, with that resistance and other important Keltner resistance now gathering from 550.55-550.83. A sustained or quick move above the mid-channel level might break the gravitational pull of that channel line, allowing the OEX to move up to upper-channel resistance at 552.99. All those mentioned Keltner resistance levels are dynamic and are still descending.

But is that move up toward 553 likely to happen? While several could spot a possible reverse H&S on the OEX five-minute chart yesterday, with a right shoulder yet to be fully formed, futures suggest that the OEX won't pause to finish forming that right shoulder but instead will likely open above the 550-ish neckline level. Futures aren't always the best guide to cash market opening levels and I'm not always the best at guessing where the OEX will open based on S&P 500 futures, but that's what it looks like from this vantage point. The 15-minute chart depicts a possible roadblock to reaching that 553 level, however, in the form of the 15-minute 100/130-pma's at 551.71 and 551.49, respectively. Thursday, I had noted that the OEX appeared to be trading in relationship to those MA's over much of June, bouncing from tests of that MA throughout most of the month, but yesterday the OEX gapped beneath those averages and traded beneath them most of the day. Those averages appear to have some relevance for this month, at least, aided by historical S/R in the 551-ish zone, so a first task for the bulls will be to sustain levels above those 15-minute 100/130-pma's. A retest of those averages will now be a retest from the underside, with a bullish outcome not a foregone conclusion.

What about the possibility that the OEX pullback over the last week has been a bull-flag pullback, a possibility I mentioned in the MM? Perhaps it still could be, but intraday charts show that the first regression channel that might have described a flag has now broken to the downside with the late-day rise also constituting a rise up to test that broken support. In addition, the daily candles have shown a tendency to grow bigger, not the kind of measured back-and-forth that is typified by small candles drawing back in a tight range. Still, a rise above 550.50 or so, which seems likely from this vantage point, will put the OEX back inside that flag formation, however, making yesterday's move look like a possible false breakout. It will take a move above 554 to break the OEX out of that flag formation to the upside.

Complicating all this is a possible continuation-type reverse H&S on the daily chart, complete with bullish divergence as the head was formed, but with a right shoulder not yet formed. I just don't trust continuation-type reverse H&S's as much as bottoming types, but I have seen them perform well over the last year, so I'm certainly not discounting it completely. The neckline would now be at about 556.50 if I'm drawing it correctly.

Daily 5(3)3 stochs are on the verge of completing a H&S and falling through a former rising trendline, lending their own bearish interpretation to likely action, although only the fast last has so far pierced that rising trendline. Fickle stochs can turn up again and make you believe that you never saw that line piercing the trendline, only imagining that it had. I'm glad I noted their position last night because that redrawing could happen as early as the open this morning.

We've all said this before, but that's because it's true: Anything can happen during opex week. However, it appears possible that the OEX might bounce. Levels to watch for possible resistance include 550.50, those 15-minute 100/130-pma's, 553, and the top of the flag formation at 554. Above that, we're on the watch again for a breakout above 557. Then comes 559.50, and the possible upside target of 562.80-563 suggested by the daily and weekly Keltner charts, but it still looks possible--based on the possible reverse H&S building on the OEX daily chart and on the overbought look of some indicators--that 557 or even some lower resistance level could hold, if tested today. I look forward to seeing what breadth indicators show us as the cash market opens this morning, but on this opex week, I advise caution to those who decide to play the long side today. This is particularly true since those volatility indices tend to collapse on the slightest upswing, so that it's going to take a fast and sustained move through resistance levels to overcome the deleterious effect that's going to have on options prices.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  8:43:03 AM
European markets liked our CPI data, with the FTSE 100 now up 21.50 points or 0.48%, to 4454.70; the CAC 40 now up 26.90 points or 0.74%, to 3674.00; and the DAX now up 16.79 points or 0.43%, to 3965.44. These have not yet had time to calm down from the initial volatility after the release.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  8:32:02 AM







  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  8:30:29 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   6/15/200,  8:08:03 AM
We await the 8:30 releases of business inventories for April, est. +.4%, the Empire State Index for June, est. 30.5, the CPI and Core CPI (if the BLS actually releases them), est. +.5% and +.2%. The PPI and Core PPI are apparently postponed. At 9:45, we get Michigan Sentiment, est. 90.8.

  Linda Piazza   6/15/200,  7:23:38 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened below the confirmation level of the double-top formation on its daily chart, as well as below its 50-dma at 11505.36. During intraday trading, just ahead of the Bank of Japan's announcement that it would hold monetary policy steady, the Nikkei dipped low enough to meet the downside target from that double-top. It rose off that intraday low in the afternoon. It closed down 103.96 points or 0.90%, at 11,387.70. So far, it's doing an admirable job of rounding into the top of a possible right shoulder on a potential five-months-in-the-making H&S on its daily chart. It's a far from foregone conclusion that it will finish rounding over into that right shoulder, particularly with a buy signal on its P&F chart, a buy signal that it's managed to maintain since June 7. Before, it appeared to be switching from buy to sell and back to buy signals every couple of days. It will take a trade at 11,000 to produce a new sell signal.

Market observers mention almost every day that uncertainty over the pace at which the Fed might raise rates as being behind the jittery equity markets, and overnight trading on Tuesday was no exception. In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Fukui reassured market watchers that the bank would hold interest rates close to zero to ease the economic recovery. Not employing our type of Fed-speak in which the nuance of each word must be analyzed, Fukui reportedly cautioned that there was "no room for speculation" that the interest rate policy would change. Vice Finance Minister Masakazu Hayashi made statements yesterday interpreted as supportive of bond prices, with his comments including the undesirability of bond yields rising faster than the rate of economic growth, and bonds rose.

Tech stocks proved generally weak, with chip-related stocks leading the declines, still suffering from negative comments made by two firms over the last few days. Banking stocks also fell. In stock-specific news, HSBC Holdings downgraded chip-equipment maker Advantest to a reduce rating from its previous add rating, sending that stock lower in early trading. Although Honda and Toyota climbed, Mitsubishi Motors extended Monday's losses, with a newspaper reporting that the troubled company will cancel its winter bonus and drop retirement plans for three executives, as well as recall 450,000 vehicles produced in the Fuso unit. Sharp was in the news again, but this time due to a new product and not to the fallout over its suit of Teco. Sharp plans to launch in Japan the sale of 45-inch LCD TV's that can receive digital TV broadcasts. Sharp declined. A breaking-news headline announced that Samsung would introduce at least 20 new models in the second half of the fiscal year.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, but most of the ones typically reported on this page closed in the green. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.30% and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.80%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.36%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.21%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.74%.

European bourses turn in mixed performances today, too, although more trade higher than lower. Japan might be signaling that interest rates will be kept low, but Bank of England Governor King signaled that rates will rise again, in statements both before and after this morning's release of an economic number showing the U.K.'s consumer prices rising 1.5% from the year-ago period and 1.2% from the previous month. King specifically mentioned housing costs in a radio interview although those costs are reportedly not computed in the government's main inflation measure.

According to one article, utilities are leading European stocks higher this morning, with investors seeking these dividend-paying companies where earnings might be less impacted by changes in demand in economies. Citigroup raised the forecast for share prices in the world's second-largest water company, Suez, also changing the company's rating to a buy rating from its former hold rating, and Suez's stock was gaining in early trading. Stock-specific news also included generic drug manufacturer Stada Arzneimittel's plummet after the company trimmed its earnings forecast for 2004. The company blamed a law that reduces health-care costs in Germany, saying the law encumbered the company. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein lowered the rating of Germany's engineering company Siemens AG to a reduce rating from its former add rating and trimmed its forecast for share prices, mentioning possible sales and profitability concerns in the phone-network equipment business. Siemens was down in early trading. Factory robot manufacturer ABB Ltd. announced that sales in China would double this year's predicted revenue, with ABB gaining in early European trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 7.10 points or 0.16%, to 4440.30. The CAC 40 is up 10.68 points or 0.29%, to 3657.78. The DAX is down 5.64 points or 0.14%, to 3943.01.

  Jeff Bailey   6/14/200,  12:20:17 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/14/200,  12:20:08 AM
Closing Internals at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   6/14/200,  12:19:53 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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