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  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  5:44:58 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Waaaaay to many correlations to not think there wasn't a major influence from computers in today's trade, getting things as squared up as possible.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  4:41:25 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  4:03:37 PM
Sell Prog. Prem. ... QQQ $36.39 , SPY $113.82, DIA $103.94.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  3:56:13 PM
The hike in crude oil prices hasn't impacted the TRAN as strongly today as it did on other days. The TRAN has, however, printed a doji on top of its latest rise, with that rise so far coming below the 6/08-09 rise. Daily indicators do not indicate the start of a decline in progress or even to be imminent, but market watchers don't want to see the TRAN roll down tomorrow after that doji today.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  3:47:02 PM
FEI Company (FEIC) $20.35 -14% ... plunges to an alert I had set. Don't remember setting an alert, but stock fell from $23 to $19 in past 5 minutes.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  3:46:34 PM
On the OEX daily Keltner chart, the OEX has today been testing 551.39 Keltner support, but if that support doesn't hold over the next few days, next support bunches up from 545-547.23.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  3:37:03 PM
That H&S that Jane mentioned on some of the futures contract is there on the OEX, too, with a possible neckline near 551.89. The trouble is, there's also still that continuation-form reverse H&S, the one I don't trust too much but still feel duty-bound to mention. When I start seeing H&S's and reverse H&S's everywhere, I start feeling as if the bulls and the bears are battling things out, with some bearishness and some bullishness being displayed, but with choppy behavior likely to be the result until it all gets sorted out. The downside target on that H&S on the OEX chart would take the OEX back down to about 550.35 or so if the formation is confirmed and the downside target met, a little low but not too low to still be part of the right shoulder of the possible reverse H&S.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  3:35:40 PM
The XNG natural gas index is up three strong days in a row hitting new three-year highs. The OSX oil services index is also up three days in a row as is the OIX oil index. However, the OIX index appears to be hitting ALL time highs.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  3:18:48 PM
IPIX (IPIX) $13.75 -5.7% .... sharply lower after CNBC guest had negative comments on Mace Security (MACE) $6.15 -3.56%.

Will reiterate my "buy" on IPIX on this weakness.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  3:14:28 PM
Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC) has broken out above its very wide trading range and descending trendline of lower highs. Bulls might want to consider plays with a move over $19.00 but SSCC is probably a better covered call candidate.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  3:10:52 PM
Despite my tongue-in-cheek 15:05 post, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX spend the rest of the day squiggling around mid-channel Keltner levels, at 552.57 on the five-minute chart and 552.56 on the fifteen-minute chart, traveling a short distance only above or below those levels, getting hauled back if it attempts something braver.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  3:07:29 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   6/17/200,  3:06:44 PM
Teradyne Inc (TER) is down 4% and nearing support at $20.00. Traders might want to consider bearish plays if it breaks support.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  3:05:32 PM
I just remembered that I have a fairly accurate way of forecasting the markets will move within the last hour of trading, but specifically within the last few minutes of trading, changing the entire outlook in one way or another. I'm substituting for Jim tonight, writing the Market Wrap. The last few times I've done that, I've roughed out some ideas as I watched the markets during the day, choosing my title and slant. In several of those most recent cases, the markets have done something in the last few minutes of trading that had me pitching out title and slant, both, needing to reorganize and reinterpret the roughed-out material in a completely different manner. On behalf of the traders sitting glassy-eyed for yet another day in front of their monitors, we can hope that will happen today, even if it does cause me extra work.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  3:04:17 PM
Novellus Systems (NVLS) is down 5% in heavy sympathy with the SOX. The drop in NVLS breaks support at the $30.00 level. Its P&F chart is bearish and points to a $19 price target.

  Jane Fox   6/17/200,  3:03:07 PM
Dateline WSJ - The terrorist strikes of Sept. 11, 2001 overwhelmed all immediate efforts to counter or even comprehend their scope, a bipartisan commission reported Thursday, and spread confusion to the point that Vice President Dick Cheney mistakenly thought U.S. warplanes shot down two aircraft.

The front line civilian and military agencies struggled to "improvise a homeland defense against an unprecedented challenge they had never encountered and had never trained to meet," the panel said.

"We fought many phantoms that day," Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the panel. He noted that reports of car bombings and other terrorist acts spread quickly -- and falsely -- in the nerves-on-edge hours after the World Trade Center and Pentagon were struck by planes hijacked by terrorists.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:52:12 PM
The advdec line dips a little. It's nothing serious yet, but coupled with the fact that TRIN is trying to rise, too, it might pay to keep a watch on these indicators.

Up until 30 minutes ago, crude had continued to rise since late yesterday afternoon, but it was rising into $38.50 resistance as of 30 minutes ago.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  2:45:05 PM
That would appear to be the case, Linda, as crazy as it sounds.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:43:20 PM
So, Jonathan, if we want to know if more mad cow disease has been discovered, we should watch the cattle futures instead of the news releases? (See Jonathan's 14:38 post on the Futures side of the Monitor.)

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:41:34 PM
The OEX is dipping back below the mid-channel Keltner level again on the five-minute chart and appears to be headed back for another retest of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Please remember as you read my comments that the OEX is still within that recent consolidation pattern and this is still nearing the tail end of opex week, and we could see all kinds of false breakouts.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  2:39:02 PM
Day trade exit alert ... for Alcoa (AA) $31.32 +0.35% here.

SOX new low could bring broader selling

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  2:38:20 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 453.33 -3.4% .... session low.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:27:37 PM
So far, the OEX has turned down from the trendline off Wednesday's high.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  2:25:47 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   6/17/200,  2:16:10 PM
Electric utility AES is bouncing strongly from the $9.50 level and nearing round-number resistance at $10.00. Bullish stock traders might want to give it another look.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:12:21 PM
Jane may have noted it already, but the advdec line has been moving generally higher since shortly after the market open, so that today the advdec line has been leading the market. That's something that bulls want to see, but I'm still a little skeptical of anything I see happening here while the OEX rattles around within that recent consolidation pattern during the tail end of opex week. A few minutes ago, I mentioned the 553.80 level as being one level to watch, as it marks a trendline off Wednesday's high. Another lies a bit higher, at about 554.80 now, with that one marking the descending trendline off the 6/08 high and a possible neckline version for the continuation form reverse H&S on the 15- and 30-minute chart. Remember that I'm not suggesting that the OEX will break through this neckline, but only suggesting that bulls and bears alike would do well to watch it for a possible breakthrough or rollover if the OEX should rise that high. If already in a bullish play, be watchful of these levels and particularly watchful (and ready for) 557 if it should be tested.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  2:11:33 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $14.90 +2.97% ... stock trying to move away higher from intra-day traingle, where I just looks to me like a short has been trying to get covered.

Each session high builds anticipation for this bull.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  2:07:49 PM
Xilinx Inc (XLNX) is hitting new eight-month lows, down 5.85% to $32.80. Its MACD has produced a new sell signal.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  2:07:30 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.77 +0.10% .... edges to session high and just above its DAILY Pivot.

SPX 1,132.54 -0.07% .... down just 1-point now.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  2:06:03 PM
At about 553.80, the OEX hits a short-term descending trendline off Wednesday's high.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  2:04:24 PM
Lexmark Intl (LXK) is bucking the trend in the tech sector and moving higher. Today's 1.77% gain is a breakout over resistance at $95.00.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  1:54:43 PM
OEX bulls don't want to see the OEX round down to 551-551.75 now, because that would constitute another lower high from a bounce off the 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  1:52:41 PM
Crude prices were jumping around again (and climbing) an hour to thirty minutes ago. Can't find a specific reason today.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:52:22 PM
The relative strength in Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE) has been amazing but its slow rate of ascension probably makes it better as a covered call candidate than a directional call play.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:49:44 PM
Burlington Resources (BR) continues to power higher after breaking out over resistance at $35.00.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:45:38 PM
Capital One (COF), which has been on the watch list a lot over the last couple of weeks, is making another run at its $72 resistance level. This could be an entry point with its bounce from $70.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:41:52 PM
It looks like Applied Materials (AMAT) is breaking down from its wide bear flag and that's bad news for the chip sector. AMAT is the biggest supplier of products and services in the semiconductor industry.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  1:33:54 PM
The OEX has made it above mid-channel Keltner resistance, but is now challenging further resistance. Something interesting is occurring, however. At least, it interest me. There's now possible bearish divergence, Keltner-style. The OEX is hitting the top of one channel for the first time since late yesterday afternoon. As it's hitting the top of that channel, however, the entire channel is further away from the outer channel than it was late yesterday afternoon. That bearish divergence can be erased simply by having the OEX continue to climb, bulging the channel line up toward the outer channel as it climbs, but it's there for now, warning us to be watchful of price action.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:33:01 PM
We've also been watch listing Texas Instruments (TXN) for a breakdown under support at $24.00. That moved happened today. Shares are down 3.39% to $23.33.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:30:21 PM
For days now we've been watch-listing Goldman Sachs (GS) for a breakdown through support at $90.00. That drop happened today and its MACD has produced a new sell signal. What has stopped us from adding it to the play list is its earnings report due out next Tuesday.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  1:27:55 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,380 +0.58% ... session high.

NYSE Composite (NYA) 6546 +0.16% ... session high.

AA $31.37 +0.51% ... still off session high of $31.43.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:27:09 PM
Energy conglomerate ConocoPhillips (COP) is hitting another new all-time high today with its push through the $76 level.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:24:18 PM
Biotech titan AMGN continues to sink, now down three days in a row. This is the largest component in the BTK biotech index. There is some support near $53.25 but the stock looks headed toward the $50 mark.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:22:31 PM
Once again drug giant Merck & Co (MRK) is trying to breakout over resistance at $48.50. Thus far this level has been a lid on the stock price for weeks.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  1:22:25 PM
Day trade long alert .... for Alcoa (AA) $31.36 here, stop $31.20, target $31.63.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:18:33 PM
Wow! There has been no bounce in shares of OVTI after the company issued an earnings warning on June 9th. The stock is approaching what might be support at the round-number $15.00 mark but its P&F chart points to a $10 target.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:16:37 PM
Volume is extremely low on the stock but shares of Leucadia (LUK) are breaking out through resistance at $50.00 and several moving averages.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  1:15:46 PM
The last three bounces from the 15-minute OEX 100/130-pma's have each resulted in a lower high. The OEX is coming now to retest those averages, currently at 551.71 and 550.88. However, we can't forget the possible (but distrusted) continuation-form reverse H&S on that chart, because the right-shoulder level of that formation could be right about at those averages. Fifteen-minute MACD has flat-lined, of course, refusing to give us a clue as to likely direction.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  1:15:15 PM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) 4.710% down 2.1 basis point and session low for yield. Not sure if any equity impact will be seen, but trades DAILY S1 and WEEKLY S2 here.

PHF $8.75 +0.11% has junk bonds looking good.

Discloser: Still holding PHF long in retirement account.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  1:14:06 PM
The DJUSHB home construction index is up on the session but the group is consolidating into a tight range with slowly rising support at its simple 200-dma squeezing it against slowly descending resistance at its simple 40-dma. We can expect a breakout one way or the other soon. Its bearish technicals would suggest the move will be down.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  1:13:15 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  12:58:56 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.55 -0.52% (delayed 30-min) .... just traded in overnight lows of 89.50.

DAILY S2 at 89.43.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  12:54:02 PM
On the OEX five-minute chart, resistance is beginning to look a little firmer than support, but only a little firmer. Those channels are beginning to settle into an equilibrium position.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  12:44:18 PM
12:40 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  12:39:01 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:29:41 PM
Jabil Circuit (JBL) reported earnings last night that were inline but issued an earnings warning for the next quarter. The stock is down 16% to $23.47 (new one-year lows). JBL's decline is the main culprit for the weakness in the SOX.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:25:46 PM
Oh, right. Sorry. I forgot about that dieting technique. *wink*

  Jane Fox   6/17/200,  12:25:19 PM
James they just eat the topping and leave the crust! :)

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:23:58 PM
Yum Brands Inc (YUM), parent company for Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and KFC, is reporting that overall same-store sales for the last four weeks are up 1%.

Pizza Hut lead the month with a 4% gain. Taco Bell showed a 1% gain while Kentucky Fried Chicken's sales slipped 3%. (-Reuters)

Pizza on the rise? Are low-carb dieters cheating?

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  12:23:19 PM
The OEX attempt to break out above mid-channel resistance hasn't been successful, and as I mentioned earlier, the OEX may just be trying to settle down into a long afternoon's sleep as those nested Keltner channels align themselves in an equilibrium position. That has just about happened. That equilibrium position guarantees an eventual breakout one direction or the other, but unfortunately, the Keltners don't broadcast the direction or the time frame. We see that kind of settling before important economic releases or other potentially market-moving events and it can endure through many hours.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:18:23 PM
After a big run from $55 to $70 Toro Co (TTC) has received an downgrade from "buy" to "hold". Momentum is starting to slow down but the stock is off less than a dollar on the news.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:15:39 PM
Here's a chart of the SOX. Link

  James Brown   6/17/200,  12:10:17 PM
I've noticed a number of semiconductor stocks have actually been upgraded today or received new positive coverage from analysts. Yet the SOX is down 3.11% and breaking through minor support at 460.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  12:09:25 PM
The current pullback on the OEX five-minute chart looks a bit like a bull flag, but the five-minute MACD looks as if it wants to flatten and curl down, with the two giving contradictory evidence. Keltner support and resistance lines are strung out everywhere, not grouping much, although there's a slight support grouping near 552. It looks almost as if the OEX could go anywhere, or maybe nowhere. It's about time on an opex Thursday for the OEX to try to move all those nested channels into an equilibrium position and keep it there. (Note: As I typed, the OEX began trying to break out to the upside.)

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  12:02:15 PM
12:00pm U.S. JUNE PHILLY FED 28.9 VS 23.8 IN MAY


  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  12:00:53 PM
Philly Fed 28.9

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:57:37 AM
The OEX tries to steady at the mid-channel Keltner level on the five-minute chart, but it's not clear yet whether it will do so or will turn down again instead.

Market watchers will note that there's a continuation-type reverse H&S-ish formation on the OEX 15- and 30-minute charts. I don't trust these continuation-type formations, particularly when there's no bullish divergence as the head was formed, and there was no such bullish divergence today. Yet, I have to mention them because we've seen some perform admirably over the last year. The neckline would currently be at about 555, but is descending, I think. I think. It's possible to draw another neckline that actually ascends, but I think the descending trendline off the 6/08 high is the best guess at a correct trendline. Take this formation with a grain of salt, particularly on an opex Thursday, but keep it on your radar screen. If there's an upside breakout and if one should be inclined to play it (not me), there's that massive and proven resistance at 557 with which to contend. Be prepared to jump out immediately, if need be. Of course, this means that anyone already in a bullish play should be particularly watchful around the neckline area, as that's a possible place where the formation would be rejected and disappointed bulls could bail.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:56:33 AM
Pharmion (PHRM) $44.73 +7.03% ... upside al_rt I had set here at all-time high.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:55:57 AM
Goldman Sachs downgraded the broadcasting sector today. One of the stocks downgraded was CCU, which was cut to "inline". Yet surprisingly CCU is bouncing strongly from its morning lows and the stock is up 1.42% to $36.34.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:55:15 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,534.79 (unchanged)

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:51:13 AM
QQQ $36.43 -0.81% .... was Swing trade stopped alert at $36.45.

While SOX.X 455.18 -3%, it's the "big dog" and MSFT $27.80 +1.80% that seems to be barking loud enough.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:50:09 AM
Semiconductor stock Fairchild Semi Intl (FCS) continues to sink despite an upgrade today. The stock is breaking down under support at $16.00. It is interesting to note that FCS' bearish P&F chart actually points to a $16.00 price target.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:48:56 AM
The OEX is now testing mid-channel Keltner resistance at 552.61, moving above it a little now, as well as the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 552.68 and 552.50, respectively. It's also testing this morning's gap-down level. That Keltner resistance can be bulged outward, but the OEX isn't yet beyond the gravitational pull of that mid-channel level, so we can't yet be sure what will happen and if this might be one of those goofy moves I mentioned as possible today. Earlier, I would have said the five-minute pattern was looking like a rising wedge, with a likelihood that it would break to the south, though, so what do I know? The thing that actually stopped me from mentioning the rising wedge was that we had a bullish formation confirmed and meeting its upside target, measured against the more-than-year-long trend of these "bearish" rising wedges not to break to the downside at all.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:45:30 AM
Accenture Ltd (ACN) is up 5% and breaking out over resistance at $26.00 after raising their earnings estimates for the third quarter. ACN now expects profits near 37 cents per share on revenues of $3.69 billion versus analysts' estimates of 31 cents on $3.47 billion. All told the company expects a record quarter with 21% revenue growth and 31% EPS growth.

Here's an excerpt from their press release:

"We are pleased with our performance in the third quarter, as we expect to post our highest net revenues ever, including growth in each of our five operating groups and double-digit growth in each of our three geographic areas," said Joe W. Forehand, Accenture chairman and CEO.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:38:08 AM
I'm looking at the Dow's chart, seeing today's candle body squeezed between the 100-dma and the best-fit trendline off the February high. I do mean squeezed, too. Those who like to watch RSI trendlines and formations (like the CCI ghosts Jane wrote about not too long ago) might note a potential H&S showing up on the daily (14 and 9, both) RSI. Falls through these RSI H&S necklines sometimes slightly precede a fall in prices, too, so readers might watch for either a confirming move through the RSI H&S neckline or a rejection of that formation. Don't trade based on that, but rather be forewarned to watch for price action that echoes that bearish warning, if it should occur. Of course, we all know that while RSI is great because it's sometimes a leading indicator, it's also a fickle thing and can squiggle all over the place.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:37:29 AM
Evergreen Solar Inc (ESLR) is up 7.05% to $3.02 after First Albany upgraded the stock from "neutral" to a "buy" and a $5 price target.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:32:39 AM
Uh-oh! OI call plays QCOM and ZMH, both of which have been consolidating tightly under resistance are moving the wrong direction and both are falling through minor support.

  James Brown   6/17/200,  11:29:41 AM
Heads up on OI put play SYMC. Our original profit target was to exit when SYMC hit the $40.00 region. SYMC is trading at $40.00 now. The low for the day is $39.76. If you don't feel like exiting just yet and want to aim for the 200-dma near $38.75, then we suggest lowering stop losses.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:23:05 AM
Swing trade lower bearish stop alert for the QQQ to $36.45.

MSFT $27.70 +1.42% ....

SOX.X 454.54 -1.28% ...

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:15:06 AM
The SOX has confirmed its double-top formation from late May and early June. It now tests the ascending trendline off the May 3 low, however, and so may be ready to bounce before attempting to reach the 437.70-ish downside target predicted by the confirmation of the double-top formation. Remember that the book-to-bill numbers come out this evening, I believe.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:10:49 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  11:04:35 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:04:22 AM
If the OEX should continue rising, the 15-minute 100/130-pma's are at 552.69 and 552.50, respectively, with those averages showing some relevance in recent trading.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  11:01:02 AM
The OEX did move above the neckline of the reverse H&S that had been displayed on its two-minute chart, scoring a minor victory for the bulls. The next minor victory would be the fulfillment of its upside target, near 551.90. Next Keltner resistance is at about 551.69 and rising, but above that, the way is clear for that upside target. Mid-channel Keltner resistance is at 552.73.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:55:21 AM
Pharmion (PHRM) $42.42 +1.48% Link .... upside al_rt I had set here above congestions.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:50:05 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 455.30 -2.98% .... here's 60-minute interval chart. SOX.X testing its only remaining upward trend on bar chart right here. Link

Currently thinking a SOX.X dip to MONTHLY S1 may have QQQ a little closer to $36.00.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:44:39 AM
Thanks, Jonathan. I remember one day posting all day that we were awaiting some number or other, only to have Jim gently remind me that it was the next day!

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:43:04 AM
Remember that we still have June's Philadelphia Fed number at noon today, I believe.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:40:06 AM
The OEX hasn't bounced yet, but it is trying to firm up support near 550.80, a level of historical S/R as well as a level just above lower-channel Keltner support. On a two-minute chart, that firming-up process looks like a miniature reverse H&S with a neckline at about 551.30. Let's see if it confirms.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:36:24 AM
Comments about ADP: I like to test myself, don't you? Because I noted from my annotations that I'd probably commented about ADP before, I wanted to go back and see what I'd said and see how technical analysis was holding up as a tool these days. Some periods in the market it works well: others, it doesn't. Or at least, mine doesn't. Here are the last two paragraphs of my comments about ADP, copied from my May 20 answer to a reader: I also wanted to note one possible development that can be seen on this daily chart. Note that April's high and then May's high both resulted in a return to the $43.50 level? When I see that kind of development, particularly when the second and higher high was accompanied by price/MACD bearish divergence as it was this time, I begin wondering about the possibility of a H&S forming. If I'm in a bullish play and the stock starts rising again, I pay particular attention to that right-shoulder level when it's hit. I make plans to protect my position if the stock should round down into a right shoulder. It's difficult to assess when an exit decision should be made, as there often might be a pause for a day or so even if the stock does eventually shoot up past the right shoulder and head levels.

All in all, here's my assessment. There's danger of ADP falling to the bottom of the regression channel before it climbs again, but incipient bullish divergence and today's current bounce from the 50-dma and other support provide hope that a bounce will occur first. On a rise, careful attention should be paid to the possible right-shoulder level and then to the recent high, of course, with the top of the channel currently around $48.00.

ADP did rise from May 20, rising into the right-shoulder level and then rounding down to touch the neckline area again. It formed a second right shoulder before finally falling through and confirming that formation this morning. That makes me feel better about technical analysis tools this year, as compared to last year.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  10:36:00 AM

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:24:42 AM
Reader Question about ADP: Stock --- ADP -- presently at 43.58 as I write, would you be so kind and give us your comments regard where you see support, stock was very strong prior to the sell off the past two weeks, option expiration tomorrow.

Response: As always, my comments come from a technical, chart-based analysis. I'm not familiar with the fundamentals of the stock and haven't watched it consistently, and do not intend these comments as investment advice. They're just observations to be used by the readers as appropriate in making their own decisions.

First, I started with the P&F chart. That chart displays ADP with a buy signal and an upside target of $61.00, but currently in an "O" column, displaying short-term weakness. A trade at $40.00 will create a new sell signal.

Next, I checked news to see if earnings loomed, but it reported in-line earnings 4/22, so the next report is a safe distance away. Of course, any time there's a jobs report, such as today, stocks such as ADP might be affected. Goldman Sachs prefers payroll processors, one article notes, with ADP being a payroll processor.

When I turned to a bar chart for ADP, I noted that I've looked at it an earlier time for readers. At that earlier time, probably near mid-to-late May according to my comments, ADP was trading within a long-term rising regression channel, bouncing tentatively from its 50-dma. However, it had been showing bearish price/MACD divergence. That divergence was realized when ADP bounced up into a lower high that made up the right shoulder of a H&S formation. This morning's drop confirms that formation, setting a downside target somewhere near $40-40.50.

Not so fast, however. This morning's drop brings ADP right into that gap from early April, and it might find gap support there, with possible support levels at about $42.80 and $42.50. Below that lies the 200-dma at $41.17, so there's some doubt as to whether that downside target would be met. ADP has also fallen below its 100-dma today, and it's also fallen out of the ascending regression channel. It hasn't fallen so far that a bounce might not bring it back inside that channel again, however. As I type (as fast as I can), ADP is testing its daily 100/130-pma's, with the lowest of those at $42.80, coinciding with historical support at that level. ADP has bounced from these averages since last fall, so there might be at least a reflexive bounce or an attempt to bounce. If so, ADP is now likely to find resistance at that broken support line, at the 100-dma, and at the violated neckline. Here's the chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:18:53 AM
Swing trade cancel bearish target alert for the QQQ of $36.25.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:18:15 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 455.30 -2.98% ... hasn't shown any sign of a bid at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:14:59 AM
Updated OPEN positions I've profiled at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:09:06 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,127.89 -0.5% ....

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:08:27 AM
The OEX also approaches historical support from 549.50-550.80, of course, as well as Keltner support. It's still trading within the possible bull flag/possible broadening formation on its daily chart, with that broadening of the lower line making it difficult for us to ascertain when the OEX might have broken down out of the formation. Below 549.50, the strongest support is probably at 546.75-547.

OEX bears should be preparing for a possible bounce, however, setting their stops in accordance. Keltner resistance now gathers at the 551.80 and 552.90-553 regions, but also shows up at 551.16 and 552.46.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:07:31 AM
QQQ $36.38 -0.95% .... session low so far has been $36.33. Just above that overlap.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  10:04:13 AM
OEX lower-channel Keltner support is now at 550.56, with that line being dynamic.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:03:59 AM
BGO .... taking offer at $2.59 .... should be closed out.

HUI.X 183.78 +0.88% ... fading a bit and session low. Easing into morning gap higher.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  10:02:39 AM
Exit alert for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.58 bid if didn't get a fill at $2.60 offers.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  10:00:52 AM



  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  10:00:11 AM
The prospect of rising U.S. interest rates is not enough to derail a robust U.S. economic recovery, Treasury Secretary John Snow said.

Speaking to reporters ahead of a closed-door breakfast session on Thursday with a group of business chiefs including discount brokerage founder Charles Schwab, Snow said higher market rates reflect the economy's growing strength.


  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  9:57:47 AM
A 7B 14-day repo has just been announced to cover 11B in 14-day money expiring, net drain 4B.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:56:32 AM
Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $4.00 +15.94% Link .... upside al_rt I had set here to alert longer-term bulls to further strength. Profiled this micro-cap several months ago as play on growing economy and industrial metal fabrication. Only news I see is filing of quarterly financials with SEC. Link

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in BOOM.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:51:20 AM
Looks as if Jeff and I are on the same wavelength this morning, running through a checklist of different sectors, watching what they're doing. We're printing posts about the SOX and the BIX within minutes or seconds of each other.

OEX traders should note possible lower-channel Keltner support at 550.65. The OEX has overstretched other Keltner support and should attempt a bounce first before it drops to that lower support, but it just may not bounce first.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:48:51 AM
On the OEX, the current five-minute climb looks a lot like a possible bear flag climb into resistance. It's taking place during the normal first retracement of the day. Bulls would like to see the flag retrace more than 50% of the decline from the last late-afternoon high to this morning's current low, at about 533.09, near the gathered resistance I mentioned earlier. Oops: the possible bear flag broke down as I typed.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:48:02 AM
VIX.X 15.11 +2.16% ...

VXN.X 21.36 +4.75% ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:47:11 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,131.08 -0.21% ... QQQ $36.57, INDU 10,358 -0.2%

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:46:28 AM
A week or so ago, I warned about the possibility of a H&S forming on the BIX chart if the BIX should steady near the 100-dma and then rise again. That did happen and now the BIX is at the possible right-shoulder level, this morning turning down slightly from that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see another day or so of steadying near this right-shoulder level before the BIX either rolls over toward the neckline or climbs higher, refuting the formation. Those who watch the BIX for insight into greater market strength or weakness might watch for a climb above 350 as a sign that the formation is being refuted, and a drop below 344 as a sign that it's being confirmed.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:43:59 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 346.63 -0.22% ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:42:04 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 462.68 -1.4% .... sector loser in early going.

QQQ $36.56 -0.43% ....

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:40:34 AM
The SOX heads down toward a retest Monday's low, with that low at 461.61 and the SOX currently at 462.48. Oscillators depict an image of the SOX digging in its heels, trying desperately not to continue the downward thrust. Those trading semi-related stocks should be aware that the semi book-to-bill number comes out this evening, I think, so should make decisions about holding overnight with that in mind.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:37:09 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from 552.97 to 551.76. It's reached a Keltner level from which it should attempt a bounce, but will then find massed resistance at 553.14-553.30, if it should get that high.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:34:23 AM
Bema Gold (BGO) $2.59 +2.37% ... bid/ask $2.58 x $2.60. Will sit an offer at $2.60 on carried over day trade long from yesterday.

QCharts' daily pivot levels are Pivot $2.51, R1 $2.58, R2 $2.62.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:33:39 AM
The OEX opened at the 15-minute 100-pma (exponential) as I had expected it might, and has since dipped below that average and the 130-pma, too.

  Jeff Bailey   6/17/200,  9:31:08 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $14.91 +3% .... announces general availability of its AdMission Classifieds products. New at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  9:19:37 AM
Hey, I'm disappointed that I gave everyone a full day to break the OEX out of that consolidation zone and nothing happened while I was gone! Looking on the bright side, yesterday appeared to be a great day for me to be away from the markets because it appears to have been one boring day.

I hadn't had an opportunity to check on the markets all day yesterday. Just before I called up my charting system last night, I decided to guess first what had happened. I guessed that markets had tried to rise but then had keeled over. While I wouldn't exactly call what happened in the afternoon a keeling over, I certainly wasn't surprised to see that the attempt to rise didn't get far. The futures in the overnight session yesterday hadn't reacted much to the Nikkei's extreme climb and had acted funny around Europe's opening, too, so that they sort of seemed to be hanging around (if you'll allow me to anthropomorphize those futures) waiting for someone else to lead them somewhere. I also wasn't surprised to see that small-bodied candle sitting in the midst of the recent consolidation pattern.

That small-bodied candle didn't do much to clarify whether what we're seeing is a bull flag or some more ominous type of broadening formation. I wouldn't be surprised to see this formation hold up, creating either boring days like yesterday or days replete with false breakouts and goofy conditions, all the way through opex. There's a danger here for bulls, though. Those daily oscillators are trying to roll down. Unless the OEX gets some upward traction going and turns them back up, they're eventually going to roll down and we'll get a look at what the OEX manages with daily oscillators in a downward phase. Unfortunately, I see the possibility that trading within the 547-557 range could continue to be choppy, with resistance ranging all the way up to 563-564 and support all the way down to 543-544 on a Keltner chart basis.

The OEX did begin the day yesterday at the 15-minute 100/130-pma's, as I had thought it might do, and pretty much hugged them all day long except for a couple of blips up off the averages that were quickly squashed. The OEX ended the day just above those averages. Futures are down slightly this morning, so the OEX might start today sitting right on those averages again. If I offered a warning for bulls earlier, I've got to offer one for bears now. Those futures aren't down much, despite several global and domestic worries. We have the devastating car bomb today that killed many in Iraq, but one already noted worry was increased bombings in Iraq that accomplished one feared result: a temporary shutdown of oil exports from Iraq while blasted pipelines are repaired. Crude prices were up overnight. In addition, central bankers across the globe have been talking up rate hikes this week, with the Swiss central bank raising rates and with strong retail sales in the U.K. increasing the possibility that rates will be raised there, too. All this, plus our own Greenspan's comments, focuses attention on numbers like this morning's PPI. It's always important to watch the futures reaction, and they're not reacting much to these concerns.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  8:31:23 AM

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 15,000 TO 336,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 2,750 TO 343,250


  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  8:30:58 AM
Initial claims down to 336K

  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  8:30:47 AM
8:29am U.S. MAY PPI UP 0.8% VS 0.6% FORECAST

8:30am U.S. MAY CORE PPI UP 0.3% VS 0.2% FORECAST


  Jonathan Levinson   6/17/200,  8:17:33 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of the May PPI, est. .6%, core PPI est. .2%, initial claims, est. 340K and at 10AM LEI for May, est. .4%. At noon, the Philly Fed, est. 25.5.

  Linda Piazza   6/17/200,  7:14:06 AM
Good morning. With big-cap banking stock UFJ Holdings suspected of submitting documents for its banking unit that didn't match the ones regulators found, according to one newspaper report, the Nikkei opened about 12 points underwater Thursday. Then it dove through the early part of the morning session, although it didn't dive quite as quickly as it had soared the previous day and it soon catapulted off its low of the day. The Nikkei never could reach positive numbers, however, and it closed down 33.82 points or 0.29%, still managing a close above 11,600, at 11,607.90.

UFJ Holdings closed lower by 2.7%, but other banks managed positive closes as did many airline stocks. Investors took profits in some other stocks. For example, many electronics makers in Japan closed lower after a report speculating that, in fiscal 2004, foreign sales of flat-panel TVs and other electronics will more than double. Sony, Matsushita Electric Industrial, and Hitachi were among the companies that saw downturns. Similarly, Canon declined after a report speculating that strong digital camera sales would send H1 net profits 25% higher than the year-ago level. Mitsubishi Motors, still finalizing certain aspects of its restructuring plan, fell 3.2% after a couple of days of gains. NTTDoCoMo ended modestly lower, having announced plans to introduce sometime in July a phone model that enables electronic payments at stores and other places. An investigation into fair-trade practices resulted in a search of Bridgestone's offices, and that company's stock fell 1.7%.

Other Asian bourses saw mixed trading. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.87%, with Taiwan Semiconductor and United Microelectronics both gaining. In South Korea, May's unemployment rate was 0.1% lower than the previous month's. Also, Hyundai announced its intention, together with its affiliate Kia Motors Corp, to capture 20% of China's car market by introducing a new model each year. One vehicle under development will be produced only for the China market. One analyst questioned whether Hyundai could keep profits at the current level, however, with competition heating up. Still, Hyundai closed higher by 4.5%. The Kospi gained 1.03%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.94%, however, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.65%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 2.03%.

Most European bourses trade higher despite news of a car bombing in Iraq in which the death total has reached 35 so far according to one report. With crude prices up in London as a result of this week's terrorists' attacks increasing concerns about production and supply, U.K. oil majors traded higher. Also in the U.K., May's retail sales rose a higher-than-expected 0.8%. With central bank officials already commenting this week on the possible need to ratchet up interest rates in the U.K., that news was greeted with some worry, making the FTSE 100 one of the few European bourses not trading in the green. Today, the Swiss central bank raised rates, increasing attention on the possibility of rising rates across the globe. In stock-specific news in the U.K., retailer Marks & Spencer fell after the company rebuffed another bid from Philip Green with the company still insisting that his bids are too low.

Energy companies also moved higher in Europe as crude prices did. In other news involving that sector, Royal Dutch and Shell Trading and Transport are considering a single board, according to news articles today, with both stocks gaining. Some airline companies declined, however, at least in part due to the rising crude prices. In stock-specific news, UBS upgraded German drugmaker Schering to a buy rating from its previous neutral rating, based on expectations for its drug Betaseron, a multiple sclerosis drug.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has traded lower by 3.20 points or 0.07%, at 4,487.90. The CAC 40 has dropped 14.26 points or 0.38%, to 3,728.76. The DAX has climbed 4.38 points or 0.11%, to 4,007.62.

  Jeff Bailey   6/16/200,  12:53:34 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.99 -0.05% Link as we turn the clock on a new day.

August Gold futures (gc04q) $384.60 -0.15% ... down $0.60

  Jeff Bailey   6/16/200,  11:14:23 PM
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) $36.73 and 15-minute interval chart (for some wider time observations) at this Link

I see where QQQ fell to an after-hours low of.... $36.61 on what looks to be a negative reaction among technology to Jabil Circuit (NYSE:JBL) quarterly earnings, where bottom line $0.26 was inline with consensus of $0.26. Hmmm.... makes me wonder about that volume spike in the SMH this afternoon at its lows of the session (wonder who knew what and when)

I've marked tomorrow's (Thursday's) DAILY R2 and DAILY R1 in BROWN to get a perspective of a potential daily range.

While there's not a bank in the bunch, the PINK short-term downward trend on the QQQ is very similar to the one noted in Tuesday's Index Trader Wrap, and short-term trend, which for the BIX.X did serve resistance on this afternoon's test at 02:30 PM EDT.

In tonight's Index Wrap we looked at the daily interval bar chart of the broader NASDAQ Composite (COMPX). On the above QQQ chart, that downard trending RED line is conventional use of trend (anchor a high, attach at a relative high) that "should be" similar to the old downward trend that the COMPX traded against yesterday.

Either the QQQ has "overdone it again" and a little too bullish, or the COMPX should battle back above trend.

  Jeff Bailey   6/16/200,  10:01:22 PM
SPX June Option Chain at this Link

Wouldn't read too much into this, but bulk of June open interest still at 1,125 call/put.

Thought the volume at June 1,100 put (SPTRT) and June 1,150 call (SPTFJ) worthy of note. What's going on here? Probably naked selling with thought that these two levels are surely safe at this point.

My only note is that if I split the difference (1150-1100 = 50) I come back to 1,125 which would be right between WEEKLY S2 and WEEKLY S1.

SPX Most Active Options at this Link

What's up with that Jun05 700 and 600 put volume (15,740 both)? Probably just an annual closing out of either a naked put that turned out to be big winner, or protective put of underlying bullish inventory.

Conspiracy theorist will love this.... selling of naked puts at that strike/expiration today, to have the VIX.X moving lower? Time and sales shows both of those contracts found trade from around 02:00 PM EDT to the close.

If a tricky attempt to influence the VIX.X with some "exteme" put selling (would have VIX.X falling) then open interest should increase.

  Jeff Bailey   6/16/200,  9:27:22 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.06 +1.08% (30-min delayed) .... now back higher at WEEKLY R1 (90.03)

Aug. Gold Futures (gc04q) 384.70 -0.12% (30-min delayed) .... down $0.50.

  Jeff Bailey   6/16/200,  8:38:56 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.96 +0.97% ... getting "downside alert" I had set here at tomorrow's DAILY Pivot of 89.96.

  OI Technical Staff   6/16/200,  7:35:08 PM
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