Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  6:35:46 PM
Cabela's IPO discussion on CNBC. No discussion on CNBC that the Cabela's brothers aren't "spring chicken's" anymore.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  6:06:59 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

TASR $30.38 +17.88%: long from $30.05 was closed out at $30.25 (+$0.20, or 0.67%)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  5:58:46 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  5:28:54 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  5:04:13 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $57.95 -2.65% Link .... last tick at $58.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  5:03:08 PM
PalmOne (PLMO) $21.46 +5.45% Link ... jumps to $24.65 in after-hours on earnings. Reported quarterly EPS of $0.32 versus consensus of $0.13.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:53:12 PM
The BIX is pulling back from its test of 350, currently below Friday's close and possibly headed down toward Friday's opening level of 347.64, now less than a point away. Is this retreat enough to qualify as dramatic, as referenced in my 14:30 post about the BIX? Maybe. Although the word "dramatic" was perhaps a bit strong, a close below Friday's open would be significant, I think, and this pullback may certainly be enough to keep alive the possibility of a H&S on that daily chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:47:34 PM
The OEX approaches that neckline of the possible H&S on its 60-minute chart, and we know this can be a possible bounce point, so those in bearish trades should be making plans for how they'll handle this test of possible strong support. OEX 550.80-551 has been strong historical S/R numbers, showing up over and over. In addition, the 60-minute 100-ema lies at 550.46. The OEX has violated the lower Keltner-channel support, giving a breakout signal that may be valid. Whenever this happens, I suggest that OEX traders begin following the OEX lower with their stops. This is certainly anything but bullish behavior, but we should perhaps expect a bounce attempt now, with the potential rejection of this H&S formation always remaining a possibility as OEX traders make plans.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:42:44 PM
The TRAN fell away from its test of the violated ascending trendline off the 6/14 high, dropping quickly over the last hour. A drop below 3054.48 will confirm a lower high on the 30-minute chart. Currently, the TRAN is at 3062.66. Friday and today, it's been challenging the 6/07 and 6/08 highs, moving above them both days in intraday trading but dropping back by the close.

It's important to note that those who follow Dow theory--one of the reasons we watch the TRAN so closely is because of its importance in Dow theory--concerns itself with closing levels, not intraday levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:36:58 PM
Here's a chart that depicts the OEX 60-minute RSI H&S break and mentions a couple of points to watch: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:33:01 PM
The OEX 30-minute 100-ema lies at 552.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:32:12 PM
You know that fickle 60-minute RSI? The one that pulled up its toes when it almost touched the neckline of a H&S formation? (See my 13:12 and 13:17 posts.) RSI plunged through its neckline while I was preparing another post. That suggests that the OEX might also plunge through the neckline of its H&S on its 60-minute chart. That neckline is now at about 551.90, but I certainly would be cautious of a possible bounce from that level or from the 60-minute 100-ema, now at 550.47.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  3:31:11 PM
Swing Trade bullish stop alert for Taser Intl. (TASR) $30.25 +17.28% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  3:25:53 PM
I like to study on-balance volume as one trusted indicator. For example, did you know that the weekly OBV indicator for the SMH produced a clearcut H&S formation that violated the neckline in the middle of February just ahead of or as the SMH was violating an ascending trendline off the January 2003 low?

Where is this leading? I've been studying the OBV for the OEF, the Ishare S&P 100 fund since I'm not sure whether that indicator would be valid on the OEX, as QCharts may not collect and compile information on volume. We went through this once before when we were looking at OBV with respect to the SOX, and so I tend to use the ETF's for this purpose. The OEF's OBV is breaking out to a new relative high compared to the April levels of this indicator. There could be a couple of ways of thinking about this. If volume precedes price, as it should according to technical analysis, then the OBV pattern may be indicating a breakout in the making. However, if prices don't comply and move up, then there's been bearish divergence on this indicator. OBV has been a semi-decent indicator for the OEF. For example, in mid-February, as the OEF (and OEX) was still pressing toward a new high, OBV broke through the support level it had been building since January. That break preceded the price break and occurred even as the OEF (and OEX) was making a new relative high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  3:24:21 PM
Sell Prog. Premium .... SPX 1,132.88 , INDU 10,395, QQQ $36.32.

Last week we saw several buy/sell programs right in here at SPX 1,132.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  3:21:59 PM
Emulex (ELX) $15.55 -0.95% Link .... moves to session and Friday's low.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:19:53 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN) continues to look bearish. The stock tried to bounce yet again this morning but failed at $23.55, a new "lower low" after Friday's bounce attempt. In previous watch lists we suggested going short on a breakdown below $24.00. Now traders might consider a breakdown under $23.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:17:44 PM
Last Friday we mentioned that SINA looked like a bearish candidate as did most of the Chinese Internet stocks. Today shares of SINA are down another 3% and breaking under the $35.00 mark. SOHU is sinking even faster, down 5.7% to $19.93.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:15:40 PM
Crude oil tanker company Teekay Shipping (TK) is surging to new all-time highs with today's 4% gain to $37.57.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:14:42 PM
High-end retailer Nordstrom's (JWN) is up 1.94% and hitting new all-time highs after its recent three-week consolidation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  3:11:21 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:05:31 PM
Avery Dennison (AVY) is up 1.8% and breaking out over resistance at $61.00-61.50 and its 40, 50 and 100-dma's.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:02:48 PM
Higher interest rates? What about higher interest rates? The relative strength in Countrywide Financial (CFC) continues to amaze. Shares are up six out of the last seven weeks. CFC hit new all-time highs again today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  3:01:29 PM
Pivot Matrix for this week at this Link

I don't know what happened to earlier link I place this weekend. Was there when I went to bed last night.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  3:00:50 PM
Hmmm... Research In Motion (RIMM) is down 1.73% after failing to break through resistance at the $60.00 mark. Very aggressive traders may want to keep an eye on this one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:59:54 PM
I keep turning to various charts to find the one that's going to predict future direction. I'm not finding it yet. Here's a chart of the SPX that I included in a Market Wrap last week: Link Note that the SPX is pushing away from touches of the top trendline of its descending regression channel, although nothing definitive is happening yet. So far, this supports the idea of a rollover beneath that trendline more than a pop through it, but the SPX could still pop through that resistance. It hasn't rolled down yet. As you can see, there are various moving averages just below to catch the SPX if it should decline. There were last time it fell through the channel, too, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:50:35 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 187.23 -1.13% ... nice little pop from the 186.50 level in last 20-minutes. An afternoon high here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:43:51 PM
QQQ $36.40 -0.04% ... little dip from $36.50 to $36.40 in recent 10 minutes. Seems like a "big move" considering today's tight range of trade.

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 453.88 +0.17% .... backfilling this morning's "gap" higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:41:52 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $12.27 -8.22% Link .... remains buried in today's session.

No help from news that IPIX's AdMission group announced that Recycler Classifieds has expanded its use of IPIX enhanced advertising platform.

News at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:35:49 PM
I see no information on IPO's today, but a CNBC commentator was noting that 16 were scheduled for release this week, if I heard correctly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:33:25 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:30:14 PM
The BIX is above 350 and above Friday's high. Unless there's a dramatic downturn by the close of the market today, I would say that negates the possibility of a H&S on the daily chart. The next level to watch for resistance is the 6/07 and 6/08 highs of 350.83. Currently the TRAN is at 350.42.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:25:27 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 455.93 +0.61% .... back to its late-morning lows here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:24:45 PM
The OEX continues to settle into an equilibrium position with regard to the five-minute nested Keltner channels.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  2:23:41 PM
Chelsea Property Group (CPG) is up 11.3% to $64.83, a new all-time high, after Simon Property (SPG) announced a deal to buy CPG for $3.5 billion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:22:37 PM
Swing trade raise bullish stop alert .... for Taser Intl. (TASR) $30.37 +18.8% to $30.25.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  2:21:33 PM
Shares of Lone Star Tech Inc (LSS) continue to soar. The stock is up 4.5% today to $26.77. LSS is up 32% in the last two weeks. The rally really kicked into high gear last week when LSS raised its earnings guidance. Today Jeffries has upgraded the stock to a "buy". Its $24 P&F target has already been met.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  2:18:44 PM
Internet conglomerate InterActiveCorp (IACI) is up 1.9% to $30.51 after Thomas Weisel upgraded the stock to an "out perform". FYI: IACI's annual shareholder meeting is expected on Wednesday, June 23rd.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:17:04 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.41 +0.98% ... matches morning highs.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.24 +0.17% (30-min delayed)

Gold Bugs Index ($HUI.X) 186.63 -1.45% ... not responding at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:15:08 PM
As I mentioned might happen this morning, a TRAN move above 3070 resulted in a test of 3075. The TRAN is at 3075.85 as I type, and is snaking up the underside of the violated ascending trendline off the 6/14 low. The TRAN has not yet tested the 6/18 high of 3082.24.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  2:13:48 PM
Drug giant Schering-Plough (SGP) is inching above its simple 200-dma on news that its Remicade drug, a treatment for arthritis, has been okayed for sale in the EU.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  2:12:25 PM
QQQ $36.53 +0.25% ... really cranking out the volume today and will be lucky to get 50 million. Updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  2:11:34 PM
Sysco Corp (SYY) recently announced that it will buy Florida-based International Food Group Inc. The amount was not disclosed. Shares of SYY are down 30 cents to $37.33.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  2:01:43 PM
On the OEX 60-minute chart, RSI hooked back up again, at least temporarily rejecting that RSI H&S neckline confirmation. Perhaps that near-touch and then immediate switch in direction was a first clue that OEX prices would try to climb, too. Five-minute Keltner charts show approaching resistance at 555.80 (dynamic) and 556.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  1:55:02 PM
If you're not reading both sides of the Monitor, you need to click over to the Futures side and read Keene's 13:28 post.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  1:42:36 PM
Crude futures pulled back after the pipelines were reportedly reopened in Iraq, which should have been bullish for the equities. The advdec line is generally climbing, which should also be bullish, although there's nothing spectacular going on with the advdec line. TRIN climbed through most of the morning, which should be bearish for equities, but it's sort of stuck near the neutral 1.00 level. As Jane said earlier, there's no clear direction here. Yet. That I can find.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  1:28:12 PM
The OEX five-minute chart depicts the OEX as settling into an equilibrium position on a Keltner basis, nearly but not quite there. Mid-channel support is now at 554.76, with other important support just below at 554.53. The best thing we can say about this process is that predicts an eventual breakout. The worst thing is that the OEX can and has maintained an equilibrium position with respect to the nested Keltner channels over an entire afternoon and sometimes as long as a day and a half, oscillating around the mid-channel level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  1:17:11 PM
Don't you have a love/hate relationship with some oscillators, such as RSI? Take a look at the RSI depicted in the chart linked to my 13:12 post, showing RSI touching the neckline of its own H&S formation on the 60-minute chart. If you were to pull up the same chart now, just a few minutes later, you'll find that it shows RSI far from touching that trendline and instead flattening near the 60 level, as if that near-touch never occurred. This is the difficulty with such quick-moving indicators. They're great to warn you to watch certain developments, but don't pin your total account on something suggested by them alone, without corroborating evidence, such as price movement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  1:15:37 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $31.00 +20.29% .... moves to session high here. X gets the square at $31.00. Not much volume on this tick higher though. That might be "good news" for a change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  1:12:28 PM
I've added RSI to the OEX 60-minute chart showing a possible H&S, a chart depicted in my 9:53 post. Why have I added the RSI? Because RSI now displays a H&S formation of its own. I find that trendline or formation breaks in RSI often precede trendline or formation breaks in the OEX. Watch this RSI formation for signs that the OEX might either roll down to test its own H&S neckline or might instead reject this formation and head higher: Link Let price be your ultimate guide, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  1:12:03 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  1:01:59 PM
The XAU gold and silver index is down 1.09% and failing at technical resistance at its simple 50-dma. This looks like the fourth time in a month the XAU has failed at this descending moving average.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  12:52:01 PM
There's been a fairly straightforward inverse relationship of the $TRAN to crude futures. As crude was dropping this morning, the TRAN began climbing, reaching above 3070, setting up the possibility that it will now climb to challenge 3075. (See my 11:36 post.) Currently, the TRAN is at 3072.45.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  12:48:33 PM
That early morning push above $39.00 by the crude futures clearly brought out the sellers. As of 30 minutes ago, crude had dropped all the way back to $37.70 and back into the recent consolidation pattern (bear flag/bottoming?). As of 30 minutes ago, crude had risen off that low to $37.95.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/21/200,  12:48:26 PM
Isn't that incredible James? Anyone wonder why Bill Gates is the richest man in the world and why Paul Allen can send rockets into space.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:45:53 PM
There's been a lot of talk about Microsoft (MSFT) and its hoard of $56.4 Billion in cash. Everyone wants to know what the company plans to do with it.

Here are a few ideas from a CNN article:

For $15.8 billion it could really turn the tables on Sony and give every U.S. household its own $149 Xbox.

For a mere $1.2 billion Washington-based MSFT could buy the NBA's Seattle Supersonics, the MLB's Seattle Mariners and the NFL's Seattle Seahawks.

At just over $17 billion MSFT could capitalize on America's addiction to caffeine and purchase Starbucks (SBUX).

And for less than $5 billion MSFT could buy the Bahamas (700 islands) and make them a private getaway for its legion of programmers.

Or MSFT could do all of the above and still have more than $16 billion left over.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  12:41:10 PM
Are you changing your mind every few minutes about likely market direction? I'm ahead (or behind) of you, never having made up my mind. Neither that changing-your-mind or never-having-made-up-your-mind state suggests that market conditions are great for placing bets. I still keep studying that 60-minute OEX chart, seeing a potential for a H&S to be confirmed, seeing a (not trusted) continuation-form reverse H&S already confirmed but not engendering any upside enthusiasm. I'm watching the trajectory of the TRIN, upward all day. Whatever else I'm seeing, I'm seeing signs that should urge caution about placing bullish bets. Doesn't mean that bullish moves won't happen, but the failure to follow through on gains and the trajectory of the TRIN, along with other signs, urges caution even if it doesn't yet promise a downward spike.

 
 
  Keene Little   6/21/200,  12:30:39 PM
Fooling around with some potential long-term projections (it's that kind of slow day again), I've been toying with some EW counts that show one more push higher by the market could mark the top of the rally we've been in since October 2002. I hadn't noticed until today when I was studying MSFT's chart that MSFT also supports a very near-term top to its rally. This chart is a monthly chart of MSFT (to try to squeeze in price action from 2000). It's a little clearer on the weekly chart, as far as the price pattern since this low in December 2000, but this monthly chart shows it as well. Link

After the drop from December 1999 to December 2000, price has formed a clear sideways triangle. If the rally of the past 1-1/2 years (while MSFT went essentially sideways) was just a bear market rally as many contend (me included), then a sideways triangle as a wave-B fits perfect (triangles only show up in B-waves and 4th waves). The EW count supports the idea that the very last leg of this triangle (wave-e) is playing out right now to the upside. It will be a 3-wave move, likely will break above the triangle (as it did last week) and like I said earlier, it is likely to have two equal legs up from the low in March, which gives us the fib projection of 29.13 to end the rally (though it has already met the minimum requirements for this leg up and could fail at any time).

If this EW count is correct, we're not far from a market top, and a top to the current MSFT rally, and then we'll start the long descent in the next leg down of the grand bear market started in 2000. If MSFT drops below 27.72, the high on April 23rd, that could be our signal the rally is kaput.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  12:25:15 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.32 +0.26% .... hanging around today's DAILY R1. Session high of 89.41 not quite back to this week's WEEKLY Pivot (89.51).

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.23 -0.19% .... hanging tough considering Friday's gains.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:22:08 PM
Recently added put play SLAB is inching a little bit lower after cracking support at $45.00 on Friday. The stock tried to rally but failed under $45.75 this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  12:20:14 PM
As Jane noted earlier this morning, TRIN has been rising off its morning lows. It's still not in bearish territory, but its trajectory has been upward, warning bulls to pay attention.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  12:19:47 PM
Loan ... something lent for temporary use.

Lone ... without accompanimnet; solitary.

Utility Index (UTY.X) 315.95 +1.16% ... is lone sector showing 1% gain or more.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:19:38 PM
Recently added call in PD slipped back toward the $71 mark this morning but traders bought the dip and the stock is up another 0.93% today. Meanwhile copper prices are consolidating under $1.20 per pound for the third day in a row.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:16:19 PM
After three days of testing support at $47.75 shares of MERQ, a current OI call, is rebounding higher. MERQ is up 1.58% which has broken through its short-term trend of lower highs.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:14:20 PM
Traders following the action in GDW and its bull flag pattern might notice today's push through the $108.50 level. We're still waiting for a move through resistance at $110 but more aggressive traders might try jumping the gun with an entry above $108.50 or $109.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  12:13:09 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $30.08 +16.7% Link ... Old chart of TASR with two fitted retracement shows TASR moving back above a near-term zone of resistance today. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  12:10:42 PM
MSFT: About a week ago, a trusted market-watcher sent his observations that MSFT might be about to move above the converging 200-week ema and sma's, which it has done. He noted that $28.00 was also a Fib level to be watched, and marked a descending trendline at that level on this linked chart: Link Although MSFT's levels have of course changed since then and although I'm not a MSFT-watcher, I include the chart because it shows that the 61.8% two-year retracement to which he referred is at $29.74, another possible resistance level to watch. Thanks again for your observations, T.G. I thought those following Jonathan's discussion of MSFT (perhaps on the Futures side) might like to look at this chart, too, to augment Jonathan's observations.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:10:36 PM
Investors aren't shy about their feelings in EASI, a newly added OI call. The stock is up another 5.5% on stronger than average volume. The stock is nearing round-number resistance at $60.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:08:49 PM
We're also waiting on DHR, a recently added call play, to breakout over short-term resistance at $49.00. The stock has rebounded up off its lows for the session in the last hour but like everything else volume is very low.

 
 
  James Brown   6/21/200,  12:06:21 PM
OI call play AHC continues to churn sideways. The stock ramped higher on Thursday last week but has since traded in a 60-cent range for the last two sessions. We're still waiting for the stock to trade above $75.00, our trigger to consider new bullish plays.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  12:05:12 PM
Swing trade long alert for Taser Intl. (TASR) $30.05 here, stop $28.50, target $33.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  11:50:03 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.47 +0.42% .... challenged Friday's session high of $28.50 and most active in this morning's trade (42.7 million), but unable to puch through at this point. Conventional retracement from the September high of $29.97 to March 2004 low of $24.01 has 80.9% retracement just above at $28.84.

QQQ $36.53 +0.26% ....

SOX.X 457.47 +0.96% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  11:48:07 AM
The 460 level is still proving difficult for the SOX. It's going to have to do better than this to confirm a morning-star reversal signal on its daily chart and suggest even a couple of days of countertrend gains. The 15-minute 100/130-ema's for the SOX lie at 459.98 and 461.72, respectively. This morning's rise saw the SOX test that 15-minute 100-ema before falling back, but it may be rising to test those averages again.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/21/200,  11:39:01 AM
SpaceShipOne, first private manned rocket ship, briefly entered space today. This is the rocket funded by Paul Allen, oh to be rich!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  11:36:42 AM
If the TRAN should attempt a rise, as it seems to be doing as I type, watch the 3070 level, as a move above that level might suggest another retest of 3075 and then Friday's high, if 3075 can be surmounted. It has, however, fallen beneath an ascending trendline in place since 6/14, and a move to that 3075 level would represent the retest of that ascending trendline, so it would be presumed to now be resistance. Nothing stops the TRAN from climbing the underside of that trendline, however, even if it should turn out to be resistance. The 1/22 high of 3090.07 looms next.

A rollover at that 3075 level or lower should be watched for a potential move below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 3054.21 and 3049.72, respectively, and then for a test of 3034, the site of an ascending trendline off the 5/17 low. The TRAN's three days of candles showing a visual representation of indecision has flattened oscillators on the daily chart, so we must watch price alone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  11:20:16 AM
Nothing yet is refuting the possibility of the H&S formation on the OEX 60-minute chart or the reverse H&S that has already been confirmed. (See my 9:53 and 10:04 posts for charts.) However, we're still seeing indices not able to push above known important resistance.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/21/200,  11:18:15 AM
Starting with Monday, June 21, stock market trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be calculated with new divisors because of Procter & Gamble Co.'s 2-for-1 common stock split. As a result, the divisor for the 30 Industrials changes to 0.13561241 from 0.14090166.

 
 
  Keene Little   6/21/200,  11:14:10 AM
Here's an updated 60-min chart of XAU to show what's been happening in the gold stocks. After a false breakout above the downtrend line, price has fallen back under the line. This is a bearish signal. However, if you have any short positions in this index or gold stocks, watch that high of 87.03 on the 18th. If price reverses from near here and exceeds that high, it will create an impulsive 5-wave move off the low on June 14th, which would be a bullish signal. As long as the high on the 18th holds, I remain bearish this index. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  11:11:58 AM
The OEX is dropping minimally below that descending trendline off Friday's 10:30 high. It hasn't yet dropped low enough to confirm the double-top formation, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  11:10:28 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6563 -0.05% ... slips back red.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  11:07:41 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  11:02:01 AM
Over the last several weeks, I offered some suggestions for possible chart developments on the BIX, warning those bullish related stocks to be watchful if the BIX should bounce from its 100-dma for a potential rollover. I warned to be watchful at the right shoulder of a possible H&S formation, suggesting that a move much above 349.25-350 would negate the formation. So far, the BIX did bounce from near the 100-dma and did hesitate at the right-shoulder level, but Friday and today, both, it's been threatening to break through that right shoulder level. The neckline slants, so the presumption is that the formation sits so that the right shoulder could be a little higher than the left shoulder. However, a close over 350 would certainly seem to negate the possibility that the BIX is forming a H&S. Another rejection of that level today, especially if the BIX is driven into a negative close, would keep the H&S possibility alive, but barely.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  10:56:18 AM
10:53 AM Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:54:41 AM
The FTSE 100 has been treading water just under the flat-line level today. Near the time of our market opening, the DAX dropped out of positive territory and below the 4020 level about which it had been oscillating. Almost an hour ago, the bourse rejected another attempt to move into positive territory again. It appears to be making another attempt, currently down 7.81 points or 0.20%, at 3991.98. The whole globe appears to be waiting for something.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:45:26 AM
The TRAN presents a mixed picture today, too. Both Thursday and Friday, it printed candles that were visual indications of uncertainty: one was a long-legged doji and the other a small-bodied candle with both upper and lower shadows. So far today it prints a doji inside Friday's range. RSI, usually the first to be wafted higher or lower by the winds of a trend change in the making, is board flat. MACD flattens, too. The 21(3)3 stochastics attempt a bearish kiss, but without being near a rollover below signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:40:02 AM
As of 30 minutes ago, crude futures had moved up to touch $39.00/barrel, and then had pulled back slightly to $38.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:30:03 AM
So far on the five-minute chart, the OEX has pulled back only to the descending trendline off the 10:30 high from Friday to retest that trendline. That's not a bearish development yet but just a retest. I'm still seeing a mixture of bullish and bearish signs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  10:21:52 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:18:00 AM
Careful: the OEX hit equal-high territory, with today's 556.29 high essentially equaling the 6/18 high of 556.21. Of course, a double-top confirmation requires a dip below the trough between the two peaks, with that being 553.60. The 15-minute chart did show bearish price/RSI divergence as that equal high was hit, but neither the bearish divergence nor the potential double-top formation will be confirmed until and unless the OEX moves lower than 553.60 before it reaches higher than 556.30 or so. Both could still be erased.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  10:17:41 AM
10:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:09:48 AM
The OEX five-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX approaching upper resistance at 556.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  10:05:54 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,137.76 +0.25%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  10:04:54 AM
To counter that potentially bearish formation depicted in my 9:53 post, here's a completely opposite view of the OEX's formation on the 60-minute chart: Link This is what I meant by competing formations in my first OEX-related post this morning, and the reason that I don't believe the bulls and bear had yet finished battling it out with each other. Which gives the true view? A move much above Friday's high will make the H&S formation a doubtful one while continuing to confirm the bullishness implied by the reverse formation depicted here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  10:04:38 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 459.17 +1.34% ... is lone sector to gain 1% or more. Updated chart with WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/21/200,  9:55:54 AM
Al Green has added an overnight repo of 4.75B with no expiries today, for a net add in that amount.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:55:23 AM
Here's a chart I originally posted Friday, displaying a possible H&S on the OEX 60-minute chart, complete with the original annotations (meaning that the "today" referred to on that chart was Friday): Link Note that the OEX continues to test the right-shoulder level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:50:58 AM
The OEX confirmed one bearish formation (that two-minute H&S) in early trading, but did not meet the downside target, instead reversing back above the neckline and moving up to challenge the level of the head. That gives us mixed evidence in earliest trading.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/21/200,  9:49:33 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,135.30 +0.02% .... with new WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 349.11 (unch)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:49:28 AM
The SOX does attempt a climb today. Bullish traders want to see the SOX sustain levels above a 50% retracement of Thursday's tall red candle, with that level at 460.84. A close above that level would signify a completing of the evening-star reversal pattern. The SOX has not yet met its downside target from the confirmed double-top formation, however, has broken through a descending trendline off the April low, and has moved back within the long-term descending trendline in which it has traded since the beginning of the year, so a sustained climb is still far from being a done deal. It looks as if the 30- and 50-dma's are converging, so it may be that if the SOX continues to climb, it will test both at the same time, somewhere between 467-470, within a number of days.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:44:07 AM
The OEX has fallen beneath a short-term rising trendline off the 2:50 low on Friday. The two-minute chart shows a continuation-form H&S that was confirmed by that break, with a downside target of about 553.40, but the OEX appears to be trying to rise to retest the neckline instead. That neckline lies at about 554.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:40:14 AM
Be careful. I'm getting delays in my charting service on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:34:37 AM
The OEX opened higher, spiked down to the mid-channel Keltner level, and then climbed off that level, but ultimate direction is far from certain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  9:01:39 AM
Friday morning, I mentioned that the 5(3)3 stochastics on the OEX daily chart had hooked up. While I certainly wasn't ready to take the day's direction from such ephemeral evidence, that hook had provided some hope that the OEX might climb rather than decline, at least over the short term. That hook is still there, with the upturn now more pronounced, suggesting at least an attempt at a continuation of Friday's bounce attempt. I call it a bounce attempt due to the OEX's inability to maintain its day's high, the TRAN's inability to maintain its breakout over the early June high, and the SOX's close right back at its opening level.

That SOX close produced a potential reversal signal Friday (doji at the bottom of a decline, with a requirement that the SOX confirm that reversal signal by a bounce today) and semi-related stocks bounced in Asia. Those of you who read my commentary in the mornings know that, although I'm not a futures trader, I certainly pay attention to what happens to futures in the overnight session, and to how they react to developments on other bourses. Futures climbed as the Nikkei opened and zoomed higher. However, this morning, I'm watching European bourses showing an inability to maintain their positive values as (not sure there's a direct cause/effect relationship, but there may be) crude oil futures challenged $39.00/barrel. Although still positive, our futures are dipping along with the European bourses, perhaps telling us that we need to pay attention to what happens with crude this morning.

The SOX's doji close indicated the possibility that it could be time for a countertrend climb over a period of days, but on the SOX and on the OEX, as well as on several other indices, that climb might run into difficulties. The SOX has the confirmation level for the double-top on the daily chart as well as the 30- and 50-dma's just overhead, with other resistance waiting after that. The OEX has the known historical resistance at 557 as well as daily Keltner resistance now showing up at 558.10. A push above that 557-558.25 zone is going to make the recent pullback look more like a bull flag and less like some type of broadening formation, with such a push higher hinting that the OEX could rise to challenge next daily Keltner resistance at 563-564, but that 557-558.25 zone still waits while futures make that perhaps-significant pullback off the overnight highs. If I were in or contemplating a bullish play, I'd have a plan in mind for how I was going to handle that challenge of 557-558.25.

About midnight last night, I perhaps would have felt more confidence in the OEX's and other indices' abilities to breach recent resistance levels if crude oil futures' behavior stayed tame. I feel less confidence this morning because a climb above $39.00 is going to bring back the specter of $40.00/barrel. Options tend to be expensive first thing in the morning, and a slightly higher open is going to soon challenge overhead resistance. Without a quick move through that resistance, options prices are going to decrease. I'm not sure what volume will look like this morning and whether we're likely to find difficult trading conditions because of light volume, but I would imagine that a lot depends on whether a test of recent significant resistance is hit by a way of selling or by a wave of short-covering, and I imagine that outcome might have a lot to do with what happens to crude futures. We've seen other near approaches to $39.00 over the last week without anything significant happening, but when I look at a daily chart of crude futures, I see a possible bottoming formation with bullish divergence formed at the recent swing low. On the indices, I've been seeing competing chart formations over the last week that make me believe that bulls and bears are still battling it out, not knowing which is stronger just yet.

If I'd had to guess at midnight last night, I would have suggested that we'd be likely to see a rather determined assault on the OEX 557-558.25 zone today, and that unless a momentary breach of that level was hit with selling, we'd be likely to see a test of 563-564 if the 557-558.25 was breached. Today, I'm not so sure that we'll even get that test of 557.558.25. I'm just going to have to see what happens as the market opens before I make up my mind, but I urge caution. If the OEX should decline instead of climb, I'm going to be watching the 552.50 level first, as a decline below that level would mean a break of the ascending trendline that has built since 6/14. I'll also be watching the 551 level in particular, as that's the site of a neckline of a possible H&S formation on the OEX. That's visible on the 60-minute chart. The 60-minute 100-ema lies below at 549.90, and that could provide a bounce on a momentary fake-out breach of the neckline area.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/21/200,  8:06:05 AM
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/21/200,  7:31:00 AM
Good morning. Friday, the Nikkei came within 12 points of creating a new sell signal on its P&F chart, but it was having none of that weakness Monday. Instead, it climbed right back above the bearish resistance line. Market watchers cited hope for strong economic data in the U.S. this week as one reason for enthusiasm on Monday. In addition, late Friday, the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan released a report saying that in May worldwide orders for semiconductor-manufacturing equipment made in Japan rose almost 90% from the year-ago level.

The Nikkei gapped up more than 90 points and soon climbed another 200 points, reaching the day's high of 11,729.13 by mid-morning. The Nikkei could not hold onto all those gains, closing far off the day's high at 11,600.16, but it did hold onto 218.08 of the 225 points that it lost on Friday. It closed up by 1.92%.

Exporters gained in early trading, with computer-related stocks advancing and with these groups performing well throughout Asia. However, UFJ Holdings did not participate in early gains, and that stock ended the day flat, with most stocks in the banking sector ending the day lower. The stock was trading for the first time since regulators had made their after-Friday's-close accusation that the company had avoided inspections. The regulatory agency issued orders intended to clean up UFJ's act and business. After the close, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group announced that, as had been rumored would happen, its banking unit will take a 20% position in Promise, a major consumer finance company. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group was the only one of top four banking concerns to gain.

In stock-specific news, Matsushita Electric announced plans to trim costs, including cutting jobs and moving part of its production to China, and the stock gained 2.3%. On Friday, Standard & Poors upgraded the credit ratings of retailer Ito-Yokado and its Seven-Eleven Japan unit to stable from their former negative ratings, with both rising as a result. Telecom company KDDI climbed after announcing that it had reached an agreement with Kyocera and Carlyle group to sell wireless phone provider DDI Pocket. Kyocera climbed, too.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, although tech stocks generally performed well in Monday's trading. On Friday, Morgan Stanley Capital International announced beneficial rating changes to its MSCI Taiwan Index, with Taiwan to eventually take South Korea's place as the heaviest-weighted country in the firm's Emerging Markets Index. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.23%, however. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.02%, but Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.25%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.08%, but China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.43%.

European bourses turn in mixed performances today, too. Among much-watched events this week in Europe will be the release of Germany's Ifo Institute's business confidence index for June, with expectations for a rise to 96.5; and ZEW's index of investor and analyst sentiment, with expectations for a rise to 47.5. J.P. Morgan Securities raised Intel's Q2 revenue projection, and some chip-related stocks gained as a result. Some of the oil majors that saw gains Friday traded lower today.

However, some market watchers label the action stock-specific in today's trading. Some movers included Deutsche Post, climbing after announcing plans that reassured investors that it would not drop plans to launch its IPO. That had been one feared consequence of the lower-than-expected pricing on the IPO after the leak of a memo by co-lead Deutsche Bank that questioned the original pricing. Deutsche Post will trim the offering by a third, cutting its price, and will also introduce a convertible bond to achieve its desired fund-raising target. Italian utility Enel's planned IPO for Terna has priced above its expected range and is oversubscribed, however. Amid allegations that its former chief executive may have engaged in insider trading, Vivendi Universal benefited from a Lehman Brothers note deemed supportive, and Vivendi was climbing in early European trading.

In London, attention focused on various deals, including gas group Centrica's affirmation that it was discussing the sale of its car breakdown and insurance group Automobile Association, with Centrica gaining as a result of the announcement. Insurer Royal & Sun Alliance also was gaining after confirming its own deal talks, with the company engaging in discussions to sell its U.K. life insurance operations. The company would not confirm speculations in a news report of the amount the company expected to receive for the operations. Speculation arose the EMI would renew merger talks with Warner Music Group after Sony Music and BMG's proposed merger sailed through the approval process with European antitrust regulators. Office services group Regus plummeted almost 7% after substantiating rumors that it was discussing the purchase of U.S. group HQ Global Workplaces.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 4.10 points or 0.09%, at 4,501.70. The CAC 40 was up by 3.44 points or 0.09%, at 3,744.34. The DAX was higher by 22.07 points or 0.55%, at 4,021.86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/20/200,  12:33:16 AM
Friday's Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/20/200,  11:34:46 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives