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  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:57:15 PM
Sector Bell Curve from Dorsey/Wright and Associates (week to week changes) at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  6:19:12 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Note: 1/2 positions will have a "Cost" basis close to $5,000.00 equivalent in underlying stock. Full positions will have a "Cost" basis closer to $10,000.00. Option Profit/Loss columns may not reflect accurate value after the market close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  6:05:15 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  5:24:01 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:59:18 PM
Tired of H&S formations? I am. Here's another possible one with a couple of different neckline versions: Link There was bullish divergence as the head was formed, but again, it didn't form at the bottom of a decline, exactly, but rather as part of a consolidation form, a possible bull flag, on the daily chart, and I just don't trust those versions much. Both neckline versions have been breached, but notice that there's bearish divergence on this chart, too, divergence that won't be erased until and unless the OEX exceeds the March high.

Those in bullish OEX positions are in a difficult place this evening, making decisions about holding overnight. Is the breakout real? Was it a produce of short-covering into the close? Will real buyers step in now? Or are those who want to distribute stock rubbing their hands in glee, thinking of all their profits to be made?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:47:45 PM
OEX daily Keltner charts show next strong resistance at 559.75, but rising, with resistance above that at 564.68. It's conceivable that the OEX could push that 560-ish channel up to meet the one now showing resistance at 564.68, but that means that the OEX can't drop below 552.93 for a sustained period, or it will risk turning the 560-ish channel resistance lower again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:45:51 PM
Networking Index (NWX.X) 255.81 +4.46% Link .... challenges its slowly trending higher 200-day SMA (257.08). MACD moving above zero in today's session.

JDSU $3.80 +5.86% Link ... almost a mirror image.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:44:44 PM
Zebra Tech (ZBRA) also looks bullish here with the rebound back over $80.00. Its short-term technicals are bullish and its MACD is hinting at a new buy signal soon.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:42:41 PM
Harman (HAR) has been on our watch list for days now. The stock is breaking out over resistance at $90.00 today.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:40:08 PM
LLL is starting to look like a bullish candidate with today's move over the $65.00 mark. Short-term technicals like the RSI and stochastics are bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:39:31 PM
This afternoon's OEX action demonstrates what can happen--what is supposed to happen--when a bearish formation such as that continuation-form H&S is rejected. In my 14:37 post, I noted that the OEX was coming down to test that neckline again and that the last test had produced a pop higher. While I wasn't sure whether such a pop would do more than provide more of the same chop we'd been seeing, that 14:40 candle's test of the neckline rejected a confirmation and the OEX shot higher. Pring mentions this as a likely consequence of the rejection of a H&S formation. Guess in that sense anyway the formation was valid, in that a rejection of the formation resulted in relieved bulls sending the index sharply higher? Now we have to see what the OEX does with 557-558.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:33:59 PM
On the OEX, the intraday high for 6/08 was 556.88. The OEX is almost there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:32:46 PM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to its trading range over much of this month: Link It's close to a breakout point or else close to the point at which it rolls down into that trading range again. That's the reason behind my suggestion that bullish traders make plans as to how they'll deal with this level and protect profits, with some perhaps wanting those plans to incorporate the ability to participate in further gains if they should occur and with others just happy with the gains so far. I have often stepped aside at key levels, ready to get back in if the situation dictated but wanting the OEX to prove to me what it was going to do.

What is it going to do? Listening to commentators in overnight sessions, you'd think there's little chance of a continuation of this rally ahead of the FOMC meeting. Aware of what can happen in a short squeeze, it might be that any move above this resistance zone that doesn't get hit with immediate selling might see such a short squeeze. Maybe it's not just shorts, either, but others who have been waiting for a break of the consolidation zone to enter trades. A wave of selling could have bulls quickly exiting positions, however, so this might be a dangerous point for all.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:30:04 PM
Hmm... the rebound in chip stocks has powered TXN back above previous support now new resistance at $24.00. The next test will be overhead resistance at its simple 40-dma near $25.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:28:34 PM
Oil/Gas stock DVN is hitting new all-time highs with its 2.9% rally through resistance at $65.00 today.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:26:46 PM
Boosting the Internet stocks is an upgrade from "hold" to a "buy" for Ask Jeeves (ASKJ). The stock is up 8% now and completely reversing its recent bearish breakdown. Shorts must be covering with the NASAQ charging higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:26:18 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 197.14 +2.83% .... upside alert set here, which is above the recent 06/08 relative highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:24:56 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Noting that the NYSE's 144 new highs is highest since the "Bigg's Bottom."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:24:35 PM
That TRAN certainly can move when it gets going, can't it? It looks ready to charge all the way up to the next resistance level at 3160. I won't feel entirely comfortable with the TRAN runup, however, until and unless it's past the 3160-3200 range and the Dow makes a new year's closing high, too. As QCharts draws the regression channel, the Dow may be attempting a breakout of the regression channel (bull flag?) that's captured its movements for most of the year, but now it needs to catch up to the TRAN's performance.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:20:51 PM
VFC Corp (VFC) is up 1.12% and breaking out over resistance at $48.50 to new 4 1/2 year highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:17:49 PM
By the way, I think we can stop watching that OEX continuation-form H&S that I felt duty-bound to watch even though I didn't trust it. It's no longer valid. Watching the ascending trendline is still a valuable tactic, but not for the confirmation of that H&S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:16:49 PM
Okay, you know the drill if in bullish OEX positions. Make plans as to how you'll manage your positions and protect profits in the 557-558.25 range. The Keltner-channel breakout can be a valid breakout signal, as I've mentioned at other times, but it's also a time when bullish traders should be following the OEX higher with their stops.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:16:41 PM
Both the VXO and VIX volatility indices are near their lows under the 14.00 mark.

The VXN is near its all-time lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:15:18 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,140.67 , INDU 10,336, NDX 1,488, QQQ $36.99 +0.84%

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:14:46 PM
Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) is rocketing higher by 4% today after yesterday's breakout over the simple 200-dma. ACS is very close to filling the April gap down. The $53.00-53.80 level could be resistance as the top of the gap.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:13:06 PM
Wow! A couple of weeks ago we noted the breakout over $55.00 in oil stock EOG. Today the stock is surging another 3% to breakout over the $60.00 mark. Volume has been mostly above average on the two-week rally. If you are long, now would be a good time to tighten those stops. I probably wouldn't chase it here with new positions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:09:42 PM
Swing trade long alert for JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.75 +4.75% here, stop $3.25, target $4.50

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:08:19 PM
We've been watching defense-contractor General Dynamics (GD) for weeks. The stock is once again challenging resistance at the $100.00 mark and looks ready to breakout (+75 cents to $99.93).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:07:20 PM
Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $48.60 +3.18% ... at this point, stock is "rocketing" higher compared to the indices.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  3:07:04 PM
JPM has cut Dow-component UTX to a neutral but the stock is trading higher on the session (+1.58%). Actually UTX is painting a bullish engulfing pattern and rebounding back above its 100 and 200-dma's. A breakout over $90.00 might actually be a bullish entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:05:59 PM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6575.11 +0.32% ... upside alert set here at 61.8% retracement, and "cheater's trend."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  3:05:01 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $32.34 +9.64% ... approaching its trending lower 5-day SMA. Had a question via e-mail earlier this morning about where a bullish stop would be placed. I'd raise it from underday yesterday's low to just under this morning's gap higher low of $29.51, with still some near-term upside to $35.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:04:51 PM
Upper Keltner resistance on the OEX five-minute chart has moved up to 555.61 since this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  3:03:36 PM
This morning, the OEX's five- and fifteen-minute charts showed a likelihood that the OEX would move up to the 554.80-555 level, but it certainly has taken a long time sustaining values above 554, hasn't it? That put the 555 conclusion in some doubt. Also in some doubt has been the validity of that continuation-form H&S on the five-minute chart. This rise is showing that I was right to doubt its validity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:59:51 PM
Swing trade bullish call option alert .... for Overstock.com (OSTK) $38.08 +4.15% and the September $40 calls (QKTIH) $3.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:48:53 PM
If the TRAN is leading the markets anywhere, it's leading up. It would now have to drop 30 points into the close to close below that January closing level. Remember, it's closes that count in Dow theory. However, that now puts the Dow under some pressure to achieve a new closing high relative to the previous year's high in rather short order or we're actually seeing something negative rather than positive if the Dow doesn't also reach a year's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:47:15 PM
Here comes another test of 554. The OEX certainly seems to want to get past that resistance, giving it one try after another.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  2:41:58 PM
Oil refiner Valero Energy (VLO) is surging another 3% to another all-time high ($73.66). Rival Sunoco Inc (SUN) looks less overbought at $63.34 and still in a four-month trading range. Watch for a breakout over $65.00-65.50.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  2:39:20 PM
With the OIX oil index hitting new all-time highs today and the OSX oil services index hitting new six-week highs it might be time to reconsider the major oil players.

ChevronTexaco (CVX) looks strong and might be a bullish play on a breakout above resistance at $95.00, which would be an all-time high. Target $100.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is already hitting new all-time highs at $78.34 today.

Even slow moving Dow-component ExxonMobil (XOM) is climbing to new two-year highs today. I think XOM might make a decent covered call candidate.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:37:33 PM
The OEX comes down again to test that continuation-form H&S neckline. The last time produced a pop up to a new high. I feel duty-bound to watch this formation, but am not sure it's anything more than a rattling around just above mid-channel Keltner support.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  2:35:51 PM
We are not seeing much follow through on MXIM's breakout yesterday. The stock is only up 6 cents on the session. Bullish trades might want to consider a bounce from $50.50-51.00 as an entry point if you're bullish on chips.

Yesterday's rally did break through resistance on its P&F chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:35:44 PM
I'm still watching the TRAN charge higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:33:25 PM
The OEX is currently sandwiched between Keltner support at 553-543.42 and resistance at 554.27-554.40.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  2:33:20 PM
Hmm... yesterday AMGN produced a "hammer" candlestick and the stock is seeing some follow through on the bullish reversal signal with today's 1.6% gain to $53.90. The real test will be its simple 40-dma overhead near $56.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  2:31:06 PM
EBAY watchers should notice that today's gain appears to be a breakout of its bull flag pattern. A trigger over today's high at $88.02 might work for an entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:24:26 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 348.84 -0.03% .... session high here, trying to make its way back above its "cheater's trend." Hasn't been able to find a close above this trend since I put it in place.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:22:45 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.41 -0.02% (30-minute delayed) ... has been very quiet for the most part. DAILY Pivot here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:22:17 PM
Now the OEX pulls back to see if 553.75-554 is going to hold as support or if the move was a fake-out one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:20:48 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:13:28 PM
A solid break of the levels I mentioned in my 14:05 post continues the scenario I described earlier today: a dip beneath the neckline of the 60-minute H&S (occurred yesterday), a finding of support on the 60-minute 100/130-pma's (occurred yesterday), a retest of the neckline (occurred yesterday and today). If that bigger H&S had any validity (it did occur as a topping formation but had two right and left shoulders), then a neckline retest was only to be expected, but we've seen lots of H&S and reverse H&S formations lately, some of which met their potential and some of which did not. This one may just be an expression of bearish hopes without the bears having the ability to actually drive the OEX to the downside target. Any dip could be stopped at the 30- or 60-minute 100/130-ema's. As I type, the OEX is trying for 554 once again, trying for a breakout of the latest five-minute formation that could be considered a possible bull flag. Nothing is certain in this market, but we should still pay attention to all possibilities. Note: The OEX just hit 554 as I typed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:08:18 PM
Bank of America (BAC) $84.45 -0.08% Link .... just prior to 12:30 PM, company announced 2:1 stock split, raises dividend 12.5% to $0.90 per share (pre-split).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  2:05:55 PM
The neckline of that OEX (not completely trusted) H&S formation I depicted in my 13:46 post has now risen to 552.80-553.10, depending on how the neckline is drawn. I won't be the only one watching this formation, and a minor break of it might see buyers step in. As a reminder, the 30-minute 100/130-ema's I'm also watching are at 552.76 and 552.27, respectively, with the possibility that they would provide support, too, on any dip.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  2:03:04 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:55:34 PM
Keene's 13:14 comment (on the Futures side of the Monitor) about the difficulties of trading in chop leads into one of the reasons I no longer try to force myself into making a decision about market direction on mornings like this morning. This morning I commented that I had bad news for those who might have hoped to get some kind of guess out of me as to market direction today. That's because I've found repeatedly that on those days when I was having difficulty making any sense of charts or predicting market direction often turned out to be the very days when we got this kind of chop. I stopped trying to force myself into a decision. If you're forcing trades (or forcing yourself to take a stance), perhaps it's time you stopped trying to do so, because perhaps you're picking up on clues that days will be like this.

Keltner charts still do predict a breakout, but I'm still not convinced how far it will go before getting stopped at resistance or support. I just don't know.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:46:06 PM
Here's the possible OEX continuation-form H&S formation I mentioned in my 12:52 post, along with a reiteration of my distrust of the formations: Link A breakout much past 555 (the site of an ascending trendline along the top of the shoulder level, parallel with the neckline) would negate the formation, but a breakout much above 554 would already put it in some doubt.

I neglected to note on that chart that although there was no bearish divergence as the head was formed, there has been bearish divergence as 554 is retested this afternoon (equal price high, lower oscillator high).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:33:38 PM
As is true with many indices, the TRAN shows pronounced bearish divergence on the five-minute chart as it reached its last five-minute high at the 12:25 candle. The TRAN is one of the bellwether stocks I'm watching today, so this warns that a deeper pullback than the slight bull-flag pullbacks might be in store, perhaps just to 3080-3100 to reestablish support. Anything deeper than that raises the specter that it could close beneath its January closing high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:30:10 PM
I thought earlier that the OEX probably was not through challenging 554 (see my 12:39 post) yet, and that appears to be the case. The bearish price/MACD and RSI divergence still continues, but can still be erased, too. Other than that, a study of the five-minute chart reveals nothing except that the Keltner channels are settling further into an equilibrium state. That predicts a breakout, but not when or in which direction. Other chart configurations show the most likely event to be a move up toward 555.24, but the OEX has to get past 554 first, and that's proving difficult, lending some doubt to what the chart suggests. A drop below 551.72 will confirm yet-another double-top formation on that chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  1:22:07 PM
01:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:17:38 PM
The SOX is now at the top of its descending regression channel in which it's traded most of this year. It's had a couple of breakouts of this channel, most notably in late May and early June when it produced the double tops, but perhaps risk shifts to the bulls now, with those bulls needing to make plans for how they'll handle this test of resistance at the top of this channel. Is a breakout in the making? Is the SOX about to roll down again? Daily oscillators give more credence to the breakout theory, but those in SOX-related plays should have a plan in mind for both contingencies.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:15:28 PM
Checking the SOX's five-minute chart, I see pronounced bearish divergence as it moved up to the last five-minute high. Doesn't mean it can't continue to move higher, but it doesn't offer a warning to those in bullish plays to make plans in case a pullback could go deeper than the small bull-flag pullbacks that have been occurring all day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  1:10:03 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  1:07:50 PM
Bearish divergence continues on the OEX 5-minute chart as the 554 level is retested, but can still be erased.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/23/200,  12:59:48 PM
Look out, Jim. Looks like JPM might have more of their position to unload:

12:54 JP Morgan reiterates 'overweight' on Career Education

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  12:52:22 PM
This morning, the OEX has established an ascending trendline that now crosses at about 552.50, slightly below the mid-channel Keltner support. Watching that trendline should help us measure the OEX's behavior. That trendline also marks the ascending neckline of a H&S formation. The trouble is that it's a continuation-form OEX without bearish divergence as the head was formed--Ever notice how seldom that bearish or bullish divergence occurs on continuation-form H&S's or reverse H&S's?--and I don't put particular trust in that type of H&S formation. Continuation-form H&S's are sometimes seen and are noted in the technical-analysis texts, but recent experience has shown their performance to be suspect. They bear watching, however, as they sometimes do perform by showing a breakdown through the neckline and a reaching of the downside target.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:50:52 PM
Check out the Internet stocks. YHOO is surging 3.7% and breaking out of its three-week old consolidation to hit new multi-year highs. Rumors are circulating that YHOO is going to report an outstanding quarter at their July 7th earnings report.

Fellow Internet stock AMZN is up 2.2% and reversing yesterday's bearish breakdown below $49.00 and its simple 200-dma.

Oddly EBAY remains under resistance at $88.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:47:23 PM
Double Ouch! IntraBiotics Pharmaceuticals (IBPI) is down 69% to $4.22 after announcing it would discontinue the clinical trial for its Iseganan treatment. W.R.Hambrecht has cut the stock to a "sell" while Piper Jaffray has downgraded it to an "under perform".

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:43:25 PM
Software company Informatica (INFA) is up more than 8% to $7.65 on an upgrade to "over weight" at Pacific Growth. The move is a breakout over several moving averages.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:41:10 PM
The NWX networking index is really surging today, up 3.26% and breaking out over its simple 50-dma. Check out some of the related stocks:

JNPR +7.14% and breaking out over 40, 50 and 200-dma's.
CSCO +2.41% and nearing resistance at $24.00.
NT +3.26% and bouncing from the $4.50 level.
LU +3.23% on top of yesterday's big gains.
JDSU +2.79% on top of yesterday's big breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  12:39:36 PM
The OEX is turning down from the 554 level again, but I'm leery of drawing too many conclusions about next direction. This downturn isn't much just yet. Although the bearish price/oscillator divergence still exists on the five-minute chart, I'm not convinced that the 554 test is concluded as yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:39:01 PM
Bears should be defending around these levels in my opinion. SPX 1,135.06 +0.05% has come up to test its old broken below upward trend and its WEEKLY 38.2% of 1,136.08.

Bulls answered the call yesterday, will bears step up today?

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:38:30 PM
Biotech firm HGSI is up 3.84% to $11.61 and above resistance at $11.25-11.50 and its 40-dma on an upgrade to a "buy" from SunTrust.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:36:42 PM
QQQ $36.79 +0.29% .... session high has been $36.87, 2 cents under DAILY R1.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/23/200,  12:36:34 PM
Editors Play - CECO
The editors play from Sunday was CECO puts. Link CECO had been hit with some bad news about shady accounting practices. The stock lost -14 last Thr/Fri to $55. The game plan was to wait for a bounce and buy puts at $58 and $60 in anticipation of another leg down. The bounce came on Tuesday with a high of $59.22 and a stall at 58.50. This morning CECO is down another -10.69 on news that the SEC has formalized their inquiry. Several readers have emailed their success stories and asking where to exit. Personally I would take the $10 drop and run. I do expect it to move lower but in a news situation like this there could easily be another story to give it life. If you want to stay in the play I would place a stop at $49, just over today's intraday high and hope the institutions begin to bail in volume. There is heavy institutional ownership of CECO and they will probably not want to hold on for other skeletons to be uncovered.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:35:24 PM
CKE Restaurants (CKR) is up 17.75% to $13.20 on huge volume. The company reported earnings last night that didn't appear to be that impressive but Roth Capital did upgrade the stock to a "strong buy" and put a $20 price target on CKR. Also out this morning is same-store sales for CKR's two chains: Carl's Jr and Hardee's.

Same-store sales for the four weeks ending June 14th: Carl's s-s sales rose 8.2% compared to a 1.2% jump the same period a year ago. Hardee's s-s sales rose 5.4% vs. a +0.4% gain last year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:31:37 PM
Swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish in Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $48.00 here, stop $46.95, target $55.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  12:30:37 PM
The OEX did push above 554, but only minimally. It pulls back now, but only minimally. There was bearish price/oscillator (both MACD and RSI) divergence as 554 was tested, but that can still be erased. Currently, it provides a warning to pay attention only, but not a sure-fire sign that the OEX will turn down.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:29:44 PM
Ouch! Mylan Labs (MYL) is down 8.6% to $20.48 after the FDA extended JNJ's patent protection on a pain relief patch (Duragesic) by another six months. This will delay MYL's generic version to the market. MYL obviously upset over the news says it will sue the FDA for breaking two U.S. laws (the Cosmetic Act and the Administrative Procedures Act). Meanwhile MYL has suspended all earnings guidance.

Shares of JNJ are down 6 cents to $55.31.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:24:56 PM
Strength in shares of RJR with the positive news regarding its merger to Brown and Williamson Tobacco (part of BTI) and a fresh upgrade to "buy" from Deutsche bank is putting pressure on our put play in MO. Shares of MO are up 55 cents to $48.36 and above its 10 and 21-dma's.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  12:22:19 PM
Fedex (FDX) is surging to new all-time highs just under resistance at $80.00 after its earnings report this morning. This morning's numbers were inline but FDX guided higher for the next quarter.

The stock is looking a bit overbought up 5 weeks in a row.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:21:35 PM
12:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  12:15:33 PM
Looks as if we're about to see if OEX 554 holds as resistance again today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:13:14 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert ... SPX 1,136.00, OEX 554.00, INDU 10,401.00, QQQ $36.81, BIX.X 348.04 and NYSE Comp. 6,555 , NASDAQ Comp. 2,002

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:12:53 PM
Swing trade bearish stop alert for the QQQ $36.80 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  12:12:43 PM
The OEX 15-minute chart still shows the possibility that the OEX could be in the process of settling into an equilibrium position, with a breakout to occur sometime in the future, but perhaps not immediately. The most likely range for the OEX as depicted on that chart is 550.55-554.78, with the OEX currently just a little above the midpoint support level on that chart. Yesterday established 554 as recent historical resistance, but the 15-minute chart shows resistance to be drifting lower, to 553.75, according to that chart. We'll see. This morning, I couldn't discern any strong clues as to direction, and I'm really still at that point now, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:11:57 PM
QQQ $36.77 +0.25% .... only resistance I would find on intra-day basis in here is the 5-MRT BLUE #2 at $36.79, which so far has marked the QQQ session high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  12:06:32 PM
SOX.X 470.54 +0.88% .... same kind of action at MONTHLY Pivot as we saw earlier this morning at WEEKLY R1 at this point.

QQQ $36.75 has seen a session high of $36.79, but that high on 5-minute bar saw BIG volume spike of 2.174 million.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:58:56 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 471.82 +1.15% .... session high and makes its way above MONTHLY Pivot (470.77)

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:44:23 AM
The sell-off in shares of OMC, a current OI put play, continues. The stock is down 9 out of the last 10 sessions and nearing support at $75.00. It may be time to look for an oversold bounce. Watch those stops.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:43:58 AM
Day trade bearish stop alert for the Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $36.91 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:43:32 AM
The TRAN is back above 3100 again.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:42:42 AM
We are carefully watching the $29.00 and $29.50 levels in OI put play CCMP. So far the $29.00 level is holding as resistance this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:42:16 AM
The OEX continues to steady at its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, trying to push back above the 100-ema at 552.51. A sustained push above that MA might see it rise to retest the 553-554 level and then the neckline of that H&S if 554 is cleared, but so far, the OEX has not been able to sustain moves above that MA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:41:18 AM
August Crude Oil futures (cl04q) $37.50 -2.16% (30-min delayed) ... downside al_rt I had set here as contract takes out some near-term support and begins to break lower from my bullish regression channel.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:40:58 AM
OI call play PD is inching higher again and gapping up over its simple 100-dma, which has been resistance the last two sessions.

Copper futures are positive as well with a bounce off the $1.15 per pound mark.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:39:30 AM
OI call play ETN is also seeing some follow through on yesterday's breakout over resistance at $62.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:36:29 AM
OI call play DHR has broken out above two-week resistance at $49.00 and is now challenging the round-number psychological level at $50.00. Boosting DHR is an upgrade from JPM from "neutral" to "overweight".

 
 
  James Brown   6/23/200,  11:35:14 AM
OI call play AHC, an oil and gas company, is surging higher today on top of yesterday's breakout above the $75.00 mark. Traders should probably consider raising their stops a bit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:30:20 AM
Based on the chart I posted in my 11:25 post, here's my description of market action since yesterday: the OEX fell through the neckline of a H&S on its 30- and 60-minute charts. Finding support at its 60-minute 100/130-ema's (currently at 550.66 and 550.00), the OEX bounced back up to retest the neckline. It failed in its retest and has now dropped back, temporarily steadying near its 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Here's a look at the action on a 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:25:06 AM
This morning's decline took the OEX down through the 30-minute 100-ema and down to test the 130-ema on that time frame. The OEX has since then, during the last 30 minutes, attempted to punch through that 100-ema again, but the attempt has so far failed, suggesting the possibility that the OEX could roll down through those averages again. Based on yesterday's action, I redrew the H&S neckline I was using, and here's the new neckline and the action according to the 30-minute 100/130-pma's: Link This 30-minute chart suggests, but doesn't promise, a more negative view that some others, because it shows the neckline being retested and the OEX failing again at that level. This suggests but doesn't promise that the OEX is likely to fall through those averages again, a bearish sign if it should occur. Those averages are currently at 552.52 and 552.15. (Note: the OEX fell through them as I was typing this--just couldn't type fast enough--but the OEX is still perhaps within "testing" range of these averages, so be careful.) As I mentioned earlier today, however, everyone knows where support is now, and there would likely be some attempt to buy ahead of a touch of that support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:17:47 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:09:43 AM
On the OEX's five- and fifteen-minute charts, the Keltner channels still appear to be settling into an equilibrium position, but the OEX has been finding resistance at that mid-channel level from 552.57-552.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  11:06:55 AM
11:03 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  11:00:33 AM
The TRAN climbed briefly above 3100, but has since slipped back. It hasn't slipped far, but Dow theory enthusiasts will now be watching to see if the TRAN closes above the 1/22 close of 3080.32, achieving a new closing high. currently, the TRAN's level is 3095.58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:58:10 AM
Sorry about my absence. The OEX did dip below the mid-channel support on the five-minute chart, but its shape as it declines looks suspiciously like a possible falling wedge--and those sometimes break to the upside. Bears should be wary of this possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:56:12 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,365 -0.28% ... session low and DAILY Pivot, following the BIX.X 347.35 -0.45% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:52:59 AM
QQQ $36.51 -0.44% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:51:04 AM
Day trade short alert the Semi HOLDRS (SMH) $36.79 here, stop $36.90, target $36.50 (QCharts' DAILY Pivot $36.49).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:48:45 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 347.48 -0.42% .... slips back below its WEEKLY Pivot.

OEX 552.44 -0.18% .... also slipping back under WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:42:22 AM
Movile Mini (MINI) $25.79 +15.65% .... threatens session high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:39:56 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,372 -0.21% .... session low, looking 10,356

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:38:05 AM
SOX.X 467.23 +0.17% .... intra-day chart and 5-minute intervals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:31:11 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.71 +3.35% ... most active in this morning's trade and higher after SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC) $24.09 +0.08% announced late yesterday to build a new fiber optic network at a cost between $4 billion and $6 billion over the next five years.

Avanex (AVNX) $3.19 +6.33%, which also provides systems for fiber optic networks trading higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:26:20 AM
The BIX's action today keeps alive the possibility that it could be building a H&S on its daily chart. The right-shoulder level is extending a bit too long, however, and the BIX needs to turn down a bit more strongly soon to keep that possibility alive. A close above 350 might negate the possibility entirely and suggest more upside instead. The neckline roughly follows the 100-dma. The BIX is turning down today, but only within the consolidation zone it's been building the last week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:22:29 AM
The TRAN charges up toward 3100, at 3098.07 as I type. If it's leading the Dow anywhere, it's leading it up, but the question is whether it's leading at all. So far, the Dow isn't budging, and that's worrisome if it continues. Remember that Dow theory might not be a good market-timing tool. It's one measure of the underlying strength or weakness in the markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:20:03 AM
The 15-minute OEX chart suggested a pullback while the 5-minute suggested that a move up was more likely. Now the OEX pulls back, but it so far pulls back only to the strong support suggested on the 5-minute chart. We're getting another opportunity to see if that support holds. It needs to hold and the OEX needs to move back above 553.61 to tilt the shortest-length Keltner channel higher again because it's threatening to roll down. As I type, the Keltner mid-channel level is being tested on that five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:19:08 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:14:27 AM
A look at the OEX's 15-minute nested Keltner chart shows the OEX printing candle bodies right above the flat-as-a-board central Keltner support, although some shadows have dipped below that support. As I type, the OEX is again dipping below that support, with the 15-minute MACD showing a tendency to flatten, but not yet producing a bearish cross. The five-minute chart still shows firm support from 552.59-552.72, so we'll have to see if that support holds. From the positioning of the five-minute Keltner channels, the OEX appears to be setting up for a breakout, but which direction and when? The five-minute chart gives slightly (and only slightly) more credence to an upside break, but the 15-minute perhaps gives slightly more credence to a pullback. Mixed evidence.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/23/200,  10:09:44 AM
Linda I like a VXO a $14.09 - its a bargain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:09:42 AM
10:06 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:06:14 AM
Is the VXO headed to sub-14.00 levels again today? It's at 14.09 as I type, trying to steady at 14.00. (I keep wanting to put dollar signs on those VXO levels, so if I slip up and actually do it sometime, this is a forewarning that I do know better and my itchy typing fingers just couldn't help themselves.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  10:05:26 AM
SOX.X 465.59 -0.17% .....

QQQ $36.57 -0.27% .... off its session low of $36.51 after it kissed WEEKLY Pivot.

OEX.X 553.31 -0.02% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  10:02:30 AM
There must be something in the air today. My cable has gone out a couple of times today, and when it does, I have to switch over to dial-up. At times like these, I'm both glad I have the ability to use dial-up, and SO grateful I don't have to use it all the time. How did I we writers ever stand having to go to the library and request research material and then wait weeks for it to arrive? I know I did that, however. Now I'm drumming my fingertips on my desk waiting for a page to upload on a dial-up, something I would have thought amazing earlier in my writing career. Anyway, if my posts slow down today, I'm engaged in switching over to dial-up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/23/200,  10:01:06 AM
The Fed has added 10B in overnight repos for a net 5.57B gain against the 4.25B expiring.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:58:03 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $12.00 -2.91% ... probing Monday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:57:38 AM
Instead of dipping to the mid-channel Keltner level, the OEX trades sideways while Keltner support lines rise toward it. That support is now at 552.56-552.75. It looks fairly firm, but so does the resistance just overhead at 553.82-553.89. I don't see a clear sign from that five-minute chart as to whether support or resistance is most likely to be broken. Five-minute MACD heads lower, but price holds steady while it does.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:55:08 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 553.14 -0.15% .... down fractional 0.33 points. Just feeling out its WEEKLY Pivot (553.07).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:54:15 AM
The Dow is far from breaking out to a new year's high, as the TRAN is attempting to do. If the TRAN should achieve a new closing high for the year today, everyone will be on Dow watch, because Dow theory suggests bearish divergence unless the Dow also charges up to a new year's high. Usually the TRAN leads the Dow, but the closer together they reach a new high, the more powerful the signal. A Dow failure to reach a new high within a couple of weeks or so might be particularly worrisome.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:49:42 AM
The weekly chart for the TRAN shows possible weekly resistance just above 3100 and then at 3160. There's a suggestion of a possible cup-and-handle formation on the monthly chart, with the pullback this year forming the handle, so a breakout could be in the making. As always when important levels are tested, however, this could also be a time when the TRAN turns back into its years' long range from about 3000/3100 down to 2000.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:45:44 AM
SOX.X 466.70 +0.41% .... stuck its head above WEEKLY R1 for a minute to current session high of 469.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:45:29 AM
The TRAN just exceeded (slightly) the year's high. Be wary of the possibility that the TRAN could be knocked back from this test.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:44:29 AM
QQQ $36.61 -0.19% .... opening 5-minute bar from $36.57-$36.68 ... would have BLUE #4 up at WEEKLY R1 and Red #4 down at that overlap in WEEKLY/MONTHLY at $36.23.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:44:12 AM
The TRAN charges up toward its year's high, with that high produced 1/22. The intraday high was 3090.07, with the closing high at 3082.15. Currently, the TRAN is at 3088.64. Today, the TRAN may be an average to watch, as the TRAN tends to lead the Dow. Remember that in Dow theory, it's closing levels that count, not intraday levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:41:45 AM
Having surpassed several types of resistance since yesterday afternoon, the SOX now challenges the important 50-dma, with that average at 468.17 and the SOX currently at 468.43. This could be an important test, but there's still resistance layered overhead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:40:58 AM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 124.70 +0.08% ....

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 348.31 -0.18% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:39:21 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX ranged from 552.99 to 553.47. It may be trying to decide whether to reach up toward that upper Keltner boundary currently at 555.09, or dip down toward the mid-channel level, but if it tries to rise, it's going to encounter some grouped resistance at the 553.60-553.70 level and then at 553.90. The support groups strongest from 552.46-552.63.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:37:57 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 469.05 +0.56% .... session high and WEEKLY R1 here.

QQQ $36.64 -0.10% .... off 4 cents.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  9:34:05 AM
Keltner support on the OEX five-minute chart now converges near the mid-channel level, from 552.42-552.54.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:28:57 AM
OraSure Technologies (OSUR) $7.71 Link ... higher at $9.60 after getting FDA approval for its Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody Test for use in detecting antibodies to the HIV Type 2, or HIV-2, in oral fluids.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/23/200,  9:28:14 AM
QQQ $36.65 ... down 6 cents at $36.59.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  8:55:42 AM
Yesterday morning, I thought, as did others, that the SOX might be the index to watch in order to measure market strength or weakness, and it was. The SOX charged right up to the 30-dma, closing at that moving average and just below the 50-dma. It moved past the confirmation level for the double-top formation it had confirmed just late last week without ever reaching the downside target projected from that formation. At least until the SOX sustains a close above the 50-dma and perhaps until it sustains one above 471-472, that still-not-fulfilled downside target urges some caution as this could still be an oversold bounce. It should be noted, however, that semi-related stocks gained in Asian overnight trading.

What about the OEX? It had fallen toward the bottom of its recent consolidation zone, confirming a H&S from the 60-minute chart while it did so, but it sprang up from that low of the day, closing just off its high. Unfortunately, all that action took place within its recent consolidation zone, so on a daily basis, it was just more chop within a choppy zone. It closed just above its 100-dma, just at 553.50 historical S/R, and just above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's that had been so important in early trading yesterday. Yet it just couldn't make it past 554 resistance yesterday afternoon, stalling at that historical S/R level. The five-minute Keltner channels suggest it still has more upside to go before the OEX turns down again, possibly to the 554.80-555 level or possibly above if it issues a breakout signal, but the OEX wasn't so inclined yesterday afternoon. S&P 500 futures drifted slightly during overnight trading, although not markedly, so they're not giving strong signals as to this morning's direction.

I've got bad news, at least for those who might have hoped to get some kind of guess out of me as to market direction today. While I felt fairly confident that a downturn below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's yesterday morning might see a tradable move downward, with profits to be protected on an approach to 547-548 (modified later in the day to 549.50), my impression this morning is that today may prove even more difficult to trade. Bulls know where to expect support (547-549.50) and could be expected to jump in just ahead of that support. Everyone knows where to expect resistance (554 and then 556-558), and many could be expected to jump ship just ahead of that resistance. False breakouts could abound, and some could even see sharp drives that nevertheless get reversed. We could even get a real breakout, but the trouble is, who's going to believe it's occurring when it occurs? I'm just going to have to see what's happening as the market opens before I make any kind of guesses as to direction today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/23/200,  8:13:30 AM
No major economic reports due today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/23/200,  7:36:16 AM
Good morning. Wednesday, Japan's Ministry of Finance revealed figures showing that Japan's May trade surplus widened a more-than-expected 1.28 trillion yen from April's revised figure, a 35.5% gain from the year-ago level according to one article. Although one article characterized the gain as in-line with expectations, another noted that predictions had been for a 1.05 trillion yen trade surplus. Increasing exports to China and the U.S. resulted in the wider figure. May exports rose 7.3% above April's, and imports rose 1.5%. Exports rose 9.8% from the year-ago level, and imports, 4.9%.

After the release of the number, the Nikkei traded in a 90-point range in the morning session, but in the afternoon, the Nikkei fell below the morning low, oscillating between the flat-line level and 11,550. It closed at the flat-line level, down 0.71 points or 0.01%, at 11,580.56. Japanese investors are on Fed-watch, too, ahead of our FOMC meeting, and also await the July 1 release of the much-watched Tankan quarterly survey of business sentiment. With Prime Minister Koizumi's advisers suggesting limits on deferred tax assets that lenders could tally as capital, many banks declined in earliest trading and closed lower, too. UFJ Holdings has begun announcing the steps it will take to restructure and reform after a regulatory agency censured it last week, but the stock declined 3.9% in Wednesday's trading. Mentioning better operating conditions, Standard & Poor's raised ratings on eight of Japan's major banks, but that action did not occur until after the market close.

Mazda Motor gained after news circulated that the company plans to expand its association with China's FAW Group. Mazda closed higher by 2%. Although at least several car manufacturers climbed, Mitsubishi fell 7.7%, erasing part of Tuesday's 13.5% gain. That gain had occurred as investors exited short margin positions ahead of Wednesday's suspension of margin selling of the stock.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. With Taiwan Semiconductor and United Microelectronics posting strong gains, the Taiwan Weighted gained 3.11%. South Korea's Kospi was one of the few Asian bourses losing ground, closing down 1.01%, with sentiment perhaps impacted by the beheading of one of its citizens in Iraq. In addition, news of a possible strike by Hyundai Motor employees sent that stock lower by 2.2% although the company also announced that its joint venture with Beijing Automotive Industries will start production of a Hyundai SUV in China. Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics were fined for failing to pay duties on some goods they imported. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.49%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, up 0.04%. China's Shanghai Composite closed lower by 0.69%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher, with headlines proclaiming techs the leading gainers. On the FTSE, headlines list tobacco and television group ITV as leaders. ITV announced plans to achieve a new revenue target by 2007, revealed plans for a new channel, proclaimed that it believes total advertising revenues might have gained almost 5% year-over-year, and made other announcements. This morning on CNBC Europe, much talk centered on increasing advertising revenues, taken as a further proof of improving economies. Last night the FTC ratified a RJ Reynolds/Brown & Williamson deal without imposing some feared conditions, and the U.K.'s tobacco-related issues climbed.

Techs helping to send European bourses higher in early trading included Alcatel, Philips and STMicroelectronics. Alcatel benefited from spending plans announced by U.S. phone companies, with many previously fearing that higher U.S. interest rates might temper earnings growth. Today saw the introduction of several IPO's. The long-awaited Postbank IPO debuted, with initial pricing low, as had been feared, but with prices climbing slightly after its launch. Postbank is a unit of Deutsche Post and has been the subject of much controversy before its launch. IPO Enel, Terna's electricity grid unit, also traded higher after its launch. Czech generic drug maker Zentiva's pricing was strong and the issue oversubscribed by five times. It's rising after beginning trading in London. In other stock-specific news, Deutsche Bank upgraded aerospace group EADS, with EADS climbing in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has climbed 16.90 points or 0.38%, to 4,485.40. The CAC 40 has climbed 25.81 points or 0.70%, to 3,726.13. The DAX has climbed 25.10 points or 0.64%, to 3,953.49.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/23/200,  4:59:16 AM
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