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  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  4:12:35 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:57:44 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.93 +2.31% .... back higher at the close.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.87 (30-minute delayed)

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:54:13 PM
OEX 15-minute Keltner support firms up near 553-553.22. It may be enough to hold into the close, so that the OEX ends the day right at that 552.80-553.50 zone that proved so important as S/R over the last months. It's just above the 100dma, now at 552.13.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:53:34 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 348.09 -0.59% ... lows of the session and below DAILY R2.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:50:10 PM
The TRAN is falling back from its test of that 3154-3156 consolidation zone from the middle of the day.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:46:08 PM
The OEX's fifteen-minute candles mostly all have upper shadows over the last hour. That's not indicative of strength. Honestly, however, from here on out in the trading day, I don't think chart patterns have anything to do with what we'll see. Some fund manager's decision somewhere out there is what will determine the close.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:45:26 PM
Day trade bearish close out alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.37 here.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:43:59 PM
The TRAN broke out of its supposed "b" distribution pattern to the upside and how now risen to challenge the 3154-3156 consolidation zone in which it traded for much of the middle of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:42:21 PM
Emulex (ELX) $14.97 -4.64% ... probes new session low.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:41:42 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $42.00 +18.7% ... upside alert here. This is right where I had profiled those puts. Nice comeback!

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:41:32 PM
That apparent breakdown under the OEX's "b" distribution pattern was a fake-out move, but the retest of 554 could fail, too.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  3:38:03 PM
The action in EOG today sure looks bearish. The stock is very overbought and due for a pull back. Not counting the spike today a 50% pull back of its recent rally from mid-June would be about $57.00.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:33:12 PM
If the OEX ends the day anywhere near the current level, it will have produced the second doji in a row on its weekly chart, with those doji forming just below the 200-week sma, currently at 554.38. The OEX has been pressured downward by this descending MA since the first of the year, and I won't consider any breakout real while the OEX produces weekly closes below the MA. I wouldn't even trust a close above that MA this afternoon, if one should occur so late in the day, I don't think. I'd have to see follow-through next week.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:28:43 PM
The TRAN has not broken down of a pattern similar to the OEX's current pattern, one that looked like a "b" distribution pattern. It's now traded so far sideways that I'm not sure that pattern has any validity any longer on the TRAN.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:27:26 PM
The OEX is inching below 553.30-ish support, but a trade below 553 would probably be needed to confirm a breakdown out of that possible "b" distribution pattern on the OEX five-minute chart.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  3:25:15 PM
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is shooting through resistance at $16.00 and its 200-dma on news that the company has reached a tentative deal with its flight attendant union.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:24:03 PM
If I switch up to a five-minute chart, that OEX pattern since the decline looks like a "b" distribution pattern. That's not something bulls want to see, although we've seen enough of these break unexpectedly to the topside that we shouldn't assume this one will break to the downside, especially considering what happened on the Nikkei. I mentioned earlier in the week that if 554 support held on a retest this week, I'd feel as if this were just a normal consolidation pattern. A sustaining of levels below that puts the breakout in doubt.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  3:17:34 PM
Traders can look over Gannett Co Inc (GCI) as a potential bearish play. The stock broke through technical support at its simple 200-dma yesterday. Today GCI sinks toward critical support at the $84.00 level. A breakdown under $84.00 would produce a quadruple-bottom breakdown sell signal on its P&F chart as well as break its rising P&F support. I'd probably target $80.00, which as old resistance should become new support.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:14:18 PM
I'm studying the OEX two-minute chart, trying to discern a pattern, but if there's a pattern on that chart, I don't see it. It still looks like a jumble as the OEX tries to steady and move above 554-555 again. Five-minute Keltner resistance lines are beginning to thin, but the OEX needs to get above and stay above 554.40 to hope to turn the shortest-length channel higher again.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  3:12:50 PM
Murphy's law is alive and well. We dropped ZMH three days ago as the stock slipped toward the $85.00 level. Since then the stock has been up every day since and today's gain is a breakout over resistance at $88.00.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:01:23 PM
Emulex (ELX) $15.02 ... probing session low.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  2:53:57 PM
Hmm... the BTK may be trading in the red but BIIB is up four days in a row and breaking out over the $60.00 level and its 10, 21, 40 and 50-dma's. The next overhead resistance level is the $64.00 mark.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:53:08 PM
SMH / QQQ relative strength chart on 5-minute interval has SMH trying to hold short-term trend from opening morning lows.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:46:09 PM
SOX.X 474.22 +0.74% ... just off its test of DAILY Pivot.

QQQ $37.08 +0.08% ... just under its DAILY Pivot. QQQ refused to relinquish its opening session low of $36.98. Simply refused to.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:37:16 PM
VIX.X 15.22 +2.76% ... pretty good "pop" just after 02:00

SPX option chain has Jul 1,125 put (3,296), July 1,100 put (3,077) and July 1,150 call (sptgj) the three most active.

Jun 06 700 puts and June05 850 puts are really the most active, but probably related to calendar quarterly rebalance.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:35:43 PM
QQQ just turned on my intra-day volume. See that volume at the DAILY Pivot? Ooooooeeeee.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:34:16 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,401 -0.35% ... and DAILY S2.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:29:54 PM
The TRAN was hit hard during that downturn. It's five-minute pattern now looks like a "b" distribution pattern, suggesting another decline of equal distance, perhaps down to 3138 support or so. Of course, suggested declines don't always happen and don't always happen the same day, even if they do.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:27:43 PM
Day trade bearish close out alert for Emulex (ELX) at the $15.10 offer.

Session low 5-minute bar came to $15.03, with 5-minute close of $15.06.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:21:43 PM
QQQ $37.06 +0.05% ... getting "funky" at that DAILY Pivot of $37.11.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:18:46 PM
The OEX should be preparing for a bounce now, based on evidence on both the 5- and 15-minute charts. If it doesn't bounce and then sustain levels above 555, at least, the 15-minute chart suggests vulnerability now down to 550.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:17:14 PM
Semi Holdrs (SMH) $37.17 +0.26% .... now below DAILY pivot from QCharts' $37.28. Interestingly enough... same DAILY Pivot level as yesterday.

SMH breadth is positive at 14:6

MU $14.79 +2.92%, NSM $21.41 +2.68%, AMKR $8.60 +1.53% ..... SNDK $21.73 -1.49%

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:15:22 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.67 +0.64% ... same kind of drop we saw late yesterday.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.89 (30-minute delayed).

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:12:02 PM
My electricity is blinking on and off now. I may disappear for a while, long enough to get everything up and running again on the laptop, which is incredibly slow now since I downloaded a new firewall to go with the virus protection.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:11:10 PM
Emulex (ELX) $15.06 -4.1% .... probes to session low and RED #4.

Lets see if there are any fund managers that want this thing off the books before they issue their quarterly report to investors.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:11:08 PM
Be careful here. I'm keeping the Nikkei's absolutely vertical climb at the end of its trading day in mind here, with the Nikkei also reacting with a slow grind higher after declining as a result of disappointing economic data and then displaying that unbelievable climb in the last few minutes. For many hours, I've been suggesting that the OEX was more likely to see levels just below 554 before seeing 558.50, but now we're approaching lower Keltner-channel support and 554 historical support, and this could be bounce territory. The TRIN's trend says this decline can be trusted, but evidence across global markets says the unexpected does sometimes happen. You know me, though: always warning.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:09:06 PM
02:07 PM Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:06:09 PM
OEX tests that Keltner support near 555. Historical support also exists in this area. By the way, it's now meeting the downside objective of the H&S displayed on this mroning's two-minute chart.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:57:34 PM
Studying the SOX on a Keltner basis, I see that it's also sandwiched between Keltner support and resistance, both looking fairly firm. On the SOX's case, the channels are narrowing so much that they look due for a breakout. Just wish I knew which direction. Keltners suggest a short-term top near 479.50 for the SOX, with some doubt as to whether that can even be reached, but the SOX is regularly in the habit of overrunning resistance or support.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:49:18 PM
A lot of the homebuilders are slipping backwards today in a continuation of the profit taking from yesterday afternoon. One of them, William Lyon Homes (WLS), is not!

The stock is nearing new highs but more importantly it has broken out from an inverse H&S pattern. This looks like a bullish play! Unfortunately, it's not optionable and volume is VERY low.

Here's a chart of the H&S pattern: Link

Just for kicks here is a weekly chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:47:15 PM
On a Keltner basis, the OEX is between fairly strong support just above 555 and fairly strong resistance near 555.80-556. We'll have to see what breaks first.

Jim sent all his thunderstorms from the other day down to us this afternoon. Sure hope I don't have the same connectivity problems he did! That's unlikely since I'm not working from a satellite hookup, but I could lose electricity. If I disappear for a while, rest assured that I'm just getting everything called up on the trusty laptop and will be back.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:46:23 PM
Heads up on SLAB. There is a clerical error on the website. On the play list it says the stop is $48.00. In the newsletter last night and in the play profile it says the stop is actually $48.50. So the play is still LIVE for OI. Thanks to Jim L. for pointing that out!

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:28:35 PM
Michaels Stores (MIK) are hitting new highs after breaking out above resistance at $54.00.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  1:22:57 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 349.94 -0.06% ... edges red.

OEX.X 555.12 -0.10% .... hugging MONTHLY R1

INDU 10,441 -0.02% ... 10-points above its MONTHLY R1

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  1:21:06 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:17:56 PM
Whirlpool (WHR) has been pushing higher and yesterday the stock broke out over resistance at its 200-dma and the $70.00 mark. Today the stock is slipping a bit back to the $70 level but bulls may want to keep an eye on it. Its P&F chart has just pierced its overhead resistance and points to an $81 price target. FYI: the strong new homes sales number yesterday should be good news for WHR.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:17:36 PM
It looks as if the possible bear-flag rise may be breaking down now on the OEX's five-minute chart. That Keltner support just under the OEX's current 555.20 position still tries to firm up, though, so I'm not sure we should yet consider that flag breakdown confirmed.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:11:23 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) has reversed its recent breakdown under the 200-dma and is now challenging resistance at $52.00 again. A breakout here might be trade-worthy even through AMZN has clear resistance at $55.00 and $57.50.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  1:07:06 PM
12:55 PM Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   6/25/200,  1:06:39 PM
I've gotten a couple of emails asking about SLAB. The recent breakdown (last week) under round-number psychological support at $45.00 looked great for the bears. Volume had been above average on the declines and its P&F chart had failed at resistance and was pointing to a $34.00 target (it still does). Yet in the last four days the SOX semiconductor index has rallied 5.5%.

This has been painful for bears in SLAB as the stock shot back above the $45.00 mark, which should have been resistance. Shares of SLAB stalled their rally yesterday at their simple 40-dma near $48.50 just as the SOX failed at the 480 level.

So what do traders do now? The SOX is up 1% to 476 while SLAB is down 0.63% and appears to be fading. Officially, OI has been stopped out of this play at $48.00 but more aggressive traders, if they're willing to handle the risk, might want to hold on and see if SLAB continues to sink. It has not yet broken the trend of lower highs so there's still a chance it will roll over again. Just be VERY wary of the SOX, which appears to be ticking higher again. It's dangerous to fight against the current if the sector index is going the opposite direction.
Chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:01:50 PM
Keltner support may be firming up near 555.08-555.21. Keltner resistance from 555.87-556.20 looks decent, too, though. Right now, the shortest-length Keltner channel has flattened in an equilibrium position, so if it can just be held there through the close, we'll get that second consolidation day. That wouldn't surprise me as my thought-out (based on what I thought might happen) outlook for the day was for consolidation, perhaps in the form of a small continuation of the pullback. A sustained push below 555, however, continues the possibility that 553.76 would be possible. A sustained push above 556.20 suggests a trial of 557 again.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:43:34 PM
The TRAN has been holding steady near the day's high, but seems unable as yet to sustain levels much above the 3157.44 intra-week high from 12/31/00.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:39:27 PM
The current OEX rise could be a bear-flag rise. If so, it probably shouldn't retrace more than 50% of the steep decline that immediately preceded it, with that number near 556.10.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:31:19 PM
A little bit more about TIVO. The stock is down significantly from its 52-week highs near $12-13. Investors are concerned about growing competition with new products from DirectTV and other subscription services coming out with their own DVR-type products. However, one reader just sent this in...

About TIVO. We are on a waiting list for the HDTV TIVO that will cost over a $1000.00. We are way down the list. There is one going for way over the list price on EBAY. I don't think it's over for TIVO!

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:30:58 PM
The BIX is dropping toward 350 again.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:30:20 PM
I think that was a bad tick in the QQQ to $10.19.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:26:44 PM
They're talking about the price of oil and its affect on the markets on CNBC. Looking at oil now it would appear to be breaking down from its bear-flag pattern, which is good news for stocks! Chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:26:39 PM
Emulex (ELX) $15.11 -3.81% .... intra-day 5-minute chart at this Link Some other observations that look longer-term bearish.

Here's the PnF chart at this Link

Here's the PnF relative strength chart of ELX vs. the $SPX.X Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:24:32 PM
If the OEX should attempt a bounce now, resistance firms up near 556.28-556.48.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:22:20 PM
We've been watching Deere Co (DE) on the watch list for at least two weeks. The stock is edging ever closer to breaking out over resistance at $70.00.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:19:45 PM
Everyone I know who owns one (TIVO) loves it!

  Jane Fox   6/25/200,  12:19:20 PM
I love my TIVO!

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:18:16 PM
TiVo Inc (TIVO) is up more than 13% in the last three sessions on stronger than average volume. Today's gain is boosted by Roth Capital starting coverage with a "strong buy". The stock has broken out above its 40-dma but nearing its 50-dma still overhead.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:16:59 PM
NH/NL Indications current update with today's NH/NL at this hour, dating back to the "Biggs' Bottom" at this Link

It would currently take a 64% reading for the NASDAQ NH/NL 10-day to get back into a column of X on its chart. (3-box reversal on 2% scale) The 57.5% from Wednesday, would be 58% on the chart.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:16:27 PM
It may be time for an OEX bounce. If so, bulls need to see it climb above 556.40 and sustain that level to have any hope of turning the Keltner channels up again.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:11:39 PM
The OEX touches the 15-minute 100-ema.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:10:40 PM
Looks as if that little formation on the OEX's two-minute chart, detailed in my 11:21 post, might have been a good formation to watch after all. So many H&S and reverse H&S have shown up on charts lately that it's difficult to discern which ones might merit mentioning and which not. This one has not quite met its 554.90-ish downside target, but it's sure trying to get there, isn't it?

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:10:25 PM
Shares of Titan Corp (TTN) are down more than 21% on fears its proposed merger with Lockheed Martin is going to fall through.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:09:49 PM
Emulex (ELX) $15.13 -3.69% ... sideways since session low of $15.08.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:08:41 PM
Looking for a bearish trade? Check out Emulex (ELX) -3.6% to $15.14. A downgrade to "sector perform" has helped push ELX out of its bear flag pattern. The flag pattern currently points to a $13.00 target but the P&F target is actually much, much lower.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:08:04 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 512.81 -0.02% ... first "tech" sector to edge red.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:07:09 PM
The OEX approached Keltner support that usually stops it, at the 555.74 level that I mentioned earlier. That support has now drifted lower, toward 555.68. If bears are able to sustain OEX levels below that Keltner line, then a test of lower channel support, at 553.91 currently, appears more possible. This current level is typically strong support.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:05:15 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 555.89 +0.03% .... updated 5-minute chart of OEX at this Link

I've turned on QCharts' daily pivot tool.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  12:01:56 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) has been downgraded to "under perform" by Goldman Sachs this morning but the stock is bouncing. This is the second bounce from the $56.00 level in the last four days. Yet bulls shouldn't get too excited the trend is very much down. A failed rally near $60 might be a bearish entry point (versus waiting for the more obvious breakdown under $56).

FRX's bearish P&F chart points to a $52 target.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:57:30 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 556.11 +0.07% ... note this morning's high of 558.12 and WEEKLY R1 of 557.95. Yesterday's high might well have been a little "bull trap" type of trade. OEX current trade is MONTHLY 19.1% retracement.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  11:55:57 AM
Jeff already noted the new all-time high in EBAY this morning. The stock is breaking out over resistance at $90.00. The company also issued a couple of press releases. Here's an excerpt:

--June 25, 2004--eBay, The World's Online Marketplace, and the U.S. Postal Service today introduced free co-branded shipping supplies, which will display the recognizable eBay and Postal Service logos. Beginning July 2004, the eBay community can order the newly designed free shipping supplies for Priority Mail service. Boxes will be available in three sizes along with tape.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:55:39 AM
QQQ $37.25 +0.55% ... slips back below DAILY R1.

After closing out day trade long, QQQ did go back higher to test morning high of $37.39, but has since moved lower.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:53:31 AM
Day trade short alert for the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.38 here, stop $37.60, target $36.79.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:53:18 AM
An OEX drop below 555.30 will confirm a lower high on the OEX's 30-minute chart. The 30-minute 100/130-pma's are at 554 and 553.57, respectively, but we've got a lot of support to get through before the OEX tests those averages. Because the OEX could not sustain those needed levels this morning, the possibility now exists that it will touch 553.90 before it does 558.91, but right now, it's squarely back at the mid-channel Keltner level, an equilibrium position. (Note: It began dropping below it as I typed.) It's possible that these gyrations today are just an attempt to get those channels settled into an equilibrium position where they can be maintained the rest of the day. Neither bulls nor bears want to see that happen, but it's a more bullish than bearish thing if it does.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  11:50:33 AM
Let me reiterate what we said in the newsletter last night about OI put play Kohl's (KSS). Traders can be planning their exits as we approach our target in the $41-42 range and/or jumping out ahead of the crowd now. The stock is down 11 out of the last 12 days dropping from $48.60 to $43.33 (currently). This is way over due for a bounce. If you just want to let it run consider tightening stops to $44.51.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:44:58 AM
That OEX H&S on the two-minute chart has now confirmed, setting up a downside target of 554.90. That corresponds to mid-channel Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that support at 555, but the five-minute chart shows possible strong support from the current (556.40) level down to 555.74. Remember that these short-term formations aren't always reliable.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  11:43:40 AM
Profit target notice! OI call play Phelps Dodge (PD) is up yet another 2.87% to $78.26. Shares are up $6.58 from our picked price and are now within two points of our target area near $80. We suggest traders significantly tighten stops and/or plan their exit strategy. I think exiting anywhere in the $78.50-80.00 range would be fine (or exiting now works too since the options have doubled).

Today's gain will be PD's 9th gain in a row. It's overdue for a pull back.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:38:54 AM
Neckline test again on the H&S on the OEX's two-minute chart.

  James Brown   6/25/200,  11:37:39 AM
All right, Jeff! How much of Cabela's (CAB) +30% jump on its first day of trading is because of you?

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:33:17 AM
So far, bulls still win the contest, but it's not over quite yet. The neckline of the H&S formation detailed in my 11:21 post provided a bounce point for the OEX. Bears don't want to see a push much above 557.50 (the right-shoulder level is rising along with the rising neckline) level before the OEX rounds down into a right shoulder.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:29:33 AM
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) $38.61 +2.93% ... upside alert set here. May have a shot at 200-day SMA ($39.93) as it breaks above 1.5 month resistance.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:26:24 AM
The OEX tests the neckline of the H&S I detailed in my 11:21 post. This is a possible bounce point, too, remember, if bulls muster the strength to reject the formation. If it's confirmed, this is one (slight, since this is a two-minute chart) sign of increasing bearishness on the short-term.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:21:43 AM
Possible OEX H&S forming on the two-minute chart with the head at today's high. If that's what it is and if it's due to be confirmed, the OEX probably shouldn't climb much higher than 557.40 before steadying and rolling down again. The neckline is currently at about 556.60, but is rising. Remember that two-minute formations are not the most reliable, but they allow us to see whether bears can carry through on their threats here.

  Jim Brown   6/25/200,  11:21:03 AM
Symantec is warning Internet users of a growing trend for websites to infect your computer with viruses/trojans etc just by visiting them. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:17:48 AM
Day trade exit alert for the QQQ $37.31 here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:16:53 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,464 +0.19% ... slips below its WEEKLY R1.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:16:29 AM
The SOX and TRAN are doing their best to pull the other indices higher, with the SOX making up yesterday's losses and the TRAN moving above Wednesday's high. Wednesday, these two climbed all day while some other indices consolidated and didn't join the party until later in the day. Keep that pattern in mind if these indices should continue to gain today, but also watch the rising-again TRIN and declining-again advdec line. Today doesn't feel exactly the same, with a bit more of a mixed-up feeling. The SOX is pausing at that 476.30-ish level that had proven to be S/R in the past, rather than zooming through all the resistance levels it meets. The BIX is having trouble with the 350.83 level from earlier in June. This doesn't feel the same at all as Wednesday, not just yet. Keep a watch on these bellwether indices and on the TRIN and advdec line to measure what's going on under the markets (as well as we can), and remember Wednesday's pattern. This is so far looking more like a consolidation or even another pullback day rather than a likely strong gainer, but we'll just have to see.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:10:00 AM
Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $51.64 +2.07% ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:08:55 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Lag in new highs, but new lows abate.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:53:46 AM
OEX bulls prefer for the OEX to hold support at 557.30, but support near 556.30-556.90 definitely needs to hold or the risk remains of turning the short-term Keltner channel down toward a test of 553.72 support rather than continuing to head toward 558.96 resistance. The Keltners say there's bearish divergence: the TRIN's trend says, no problem!

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:53:31 AM
10:50 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:49:32 AM
So far, the OEX is holding where bulls want it to hold during the expected (by me, at least) pullback, but bulls should be keeping that bearish divergence, Keltner-style, in mind, too, as they watch.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:47:39 AM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $39.76 +2.31% ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:47:01 AM
eBay (EBAY) $90.24 +1.7% ... new all-time high here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:45:39 AM
Day trade raise bullish stop alert for the QQQ to $37.25. Trades $37.34 here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:43:15 AM
Stillwater Minining (SWC) $15.96 +2.5% ... challenges yesterday's high.

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.90 (30-minute delayed) ....

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:40:13 AM
Looks as if it may be time for the OEX to retreat a bit. Bulls hope it doesn't, or else retreats only to 557. Bears hope it dips below 556.25. At least.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:35:27 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,160 +1.05% ... (Wednesday night's Index Wrap)

Ok... will set a near-term downside alert at that 3,088.57 level.

Call it my "reversal" al_rt.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:34:15 AM
The OEX surmounts the trendline off Tuesday's low. Now it needs to get back above the trendline off the 5/25 low, currently being challenged along with Keltner resistance at 557.89, but there's now a danger signal for bulls. This Keltner line now displays bearish divergence, Keltner style. I'm fleshing out an article on how I use Keltner channels and that will explain some of the terms I use, but basically, as it challenges this Keltner line, the line is further away from top resistance than it was the last time the OEX challenged it.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:33:22 AM
Day trade bullish raise stop alert for the QQQ to $37.19. at $37.33 back to challenge MONTHLY R1.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:30:19 AM
The OEX is trying to keep those Keltner channels turned up, trying to head them up toward the upper channel resistance, currently at 558.88. In order to do so, it now needs to sustain levels above 557.23 or at least above 556.70. It's still challenging that rising trendline off Tuesday's low. The reasons the number that the OEX needs to sustain keeps rising is that the lines are dynamic and because the OEX has curved the channel up a bit this morning. Needs to keep it turned up, however.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:26:43 AM
Some European markets had traded in tight ranges going into the release of our economic numbers this morning. Some dropped after our economic releases but have now regained their earlier ranges and look as if they're trying to rise above them. The DAX has just hit positive territory again, up 4.83 points as I type, but not yet at the day's high near resistance for the last week, with that day's high at 4020.16.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:24:11 AM
200-day SMA Alert .... Networking Index (NWX.X) 257.37 again today.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:23:02 AM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.85 +4.06% ... makes a move above Wednesday's highs. 200-day SMA just ahead at $3.90.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:21:43 AM
QQQ $37.28 +0.56% ... edges to session high and BLUE #3

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:20:41 AM
The BIX is mounting another challenge of the 350.83 swing high from 6/08-6/09. Yesterday, it moved higher than that on an intraday basis, but couldn't match the 6/08 closing high.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:20:03 AM
Emulex (ELX $15.14 -3.69% .... red #4.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:16:54 AM
The OEX is flat-lining at the central Keltner channel level, with support and resistance looking about equally matched.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:15:29 AM
QQQ $37.23 +0.48% .... BLUE #2 at $37.22.

Opening 5-minutes was $36.98-$37.10.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:14:55 AM
As of 30 minutes ago, crude futures had climbed of their lows. It looks as if on Wednesday those crude prices broke through the support of the ascending regression channel that had been building since 6/09 (bear flag?), and are now rising to challenge that line from below. In fact, they've refused to fall far from that ascending channel, inching up underneath it ever since breaking the support line. If this were an equity, I'd consider the trendline break somewhat suspect in this case, but this isn't an equity and the geopolitical factors that impact this might just make it behave differently.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:13:09 AM
Emulex (ELX) $15.23 .... red #3.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:09:42 AM
Yesterday the TRIN was signaling danger to bulls; today it's not giving an all-clear or danger signal to either side. Watch Jane's comments on the Futures side for more insight.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:06:42 AM
Day trade short alert .... Emulex (ELX) $15.30 here, stop $15.65, target $14.85.

52-week low.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:05:46 AM
The OEX has not yet been able to sustain numbers above the 557 level. We have to see now if it can sustain levels above 555.37-555.78 or if it's going to sustain levels below that to know whether the bias should be toward a drop to 553.60-554 or a climb to 558.80 or so.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:05:11 AM
QQQ $37.20 +0.4% .... session high has been $37.25, right at the MONTHLY 19.1% retracement.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:01:22 AM

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:59:35 AM
Current MM OPEN positions at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:57:53 AM
OEX 557 being tested, along with the ascending trendline off Tuesday's low, with this being tested from below, of course. The OEX needs to sustain these levels and not get turned back in order to keep the Keltner channel pointed higher.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:56:24 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $13.00 +3.66% .... challenges yesterday's high.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:55:43 AM
The TRAN continues charging toward that late 2000 high of 3157.44. I'll check later and see what the closing high was during that period, as it's closing levels that are important.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:54:56 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,143.31 , QQQ $37.22

Note: From 09:00 AM intra-day update, I'm using yesterday's buy/sell premiums.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:53:45 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (DJUSHB) 88.94 +0.21% (30-minute delayed) ... higher on Snow's comments. (see Jonathan's 09:48:03)

SWC 15.91 +2.18% ... meanwhile.... $HUI.X 192.98 -0.46%.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:52:54 AM
There's a 1.5B net drain from the Fed via its open market desk today- that's a small amount relative to what we've been seeing lately.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:51:50 AM
The OEX needs to sustain levels above 556.75 before it sustains levels below 555.72 in order to turn the shortest-length Keltner channel higher again and suggest a climb toward 558.80 rather than a dip toward 553.55.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:50:13 AM
OEX Keltner resistance lines separate slightly, suggesting slightly more opportunity for the OEX to slip through them and head higher. Nothing definitive so far.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:48:46 AM
Day trade long alert for the QQQ $37.17 here, stop $36.95, target $37.40.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:48:03 AM

06/25/2004 09:46 *DJ US Snow Supports A Strong US Dollar

  Jim Brown   6/25/200,  9:47:40 AM
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final = 95.6, (est 95.5, last 95.2)

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:47:21 AM
The decrease in crude futures is benefiting the TRAN, now above Wednesday's high, charging toward the late 2000 high of 3157.44. Will that be resistance or the site of a new breakout? We may soon see.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:43:41 AM
The SOX is rising, trying to retrace yesterday's losses, currently sinking back toward mid-channel Keltner support. Be careful, with other economic releases to come.

  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:41:16 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,141.93 , QQQ $37.17

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:39:09 AM
The OEX spanned a range from 556.03 to 556.22 during the first five minutes of trading.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:34:50 AM
The OEX opens and hits last-ditch Keltner support before a possible tumble down toward bottom support. That support near 555.30 appears to be holding in earliest trading, but resistance at 556.64 must be breached and levels above that sustained to turn the Keltner channel back up again before it continues its downward path toward the lower channel level, currently at 553.53.

  Jim Brown   6/25/200,  9:23:07 AM
Today is Russell shuffle day. The entire Russell 3000 index and all the different subsets will be rebalanced at the close. We should see very high volume in the last hour or so of trading.

List of additions: Link
List of deletions: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:01:58 AM
Once again, I find myself apologizing in advance for the length of this post. Did the OEX merely consolidate yesterday, dipping to reestablish support at previous resistance? Or was Wednesday's climb a fluke as nervous shorts and would-be buyers jumped the gun ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and Iraq turnover? I don't know. Today's the day we find out. Maybe. There are two possible bullish outcomes for today: consolidation or a continuation of the rally. There's one possible bearish one: a continuation of the decline and a break of recent support.

Going into yesterday morning, I expected that both the SOX and the TRAN, two bellwether indices that had led the other indices higher, needed at least a day to consolidate recent gains. That made them unlikely to provide the same leadership they had earlier in the week and lead the indices higher Thursday. It was upon that supposition that I thought yesterday might turn out much as it did: as a consolidation-type day that might see static prices or even a slight downturn. On the OEX, the downturn stopped exactly at one version of the downtrend line off the April high, well above the best-fit trendline off the February high. It stopped above the 554 historical S/R level. The day's trading was perfectly consistent with a consolidation-type move after a breakout.

If the decline continues, it may not be. A look at yesterday's candles for the TRAN and the BIX show the TRAN printing a small-bodied (in comparison to Wednesday's candle) candle at the top of a climb, and the BIX printing a doji at the top of a modest climb. The TRAN closed well above the mid-point of Wednesday's candle and the BIX above the 350 level, so each of these was consistent with a consolidation-type day, too, but each now presents the possibility that a reversal signal may be printed by a decline today if that decline is deep enough. The SOX, another bellwether index we've all been watching, retraced more deeply, although it managed a close above the nearly converging 30- and 50-dma's. The retracement took it back inside the descending regression channel in which it's traded most of the year. The Nasdaq printed a bearish candle at the top of a two-day climb. The Dow returned to recent resistance, stopping there, perhaps establishing it as support. We need a bounce to confirm that, however.

If you were reading my comments yesterday, you know that I distrusted some elements of Wednesday's climb, but that I'm far from ready to discount a breakout just because I don't think it should have occurred ahead of next week's events. If these are markets that want to go up despite fears about the impacts of next week's events . . . well, we all learned in 2003 that you don't want to step in front of markets like that with bearish positions. However, I wanted the OEX to show me that it meant to break out and to do it by returning to support, firming at that support, and then bouncing from there. That's what the OEX can do today, but it can do something different, too: show that, no, it didn't really mean to break out.

If I were building a scenario for the day from a fundamental viewpoint, I'd imagine that we'd have another consolidation day or even a continuation of the pullback, but I'm looking at chart characteristics and not imagining what I think might happen. I haven't forgotten about crude prices when taking into account various forces in the market, and those prices now rest on the 50-dma, ready to plunge through and prove that the recent pattern really was a bear flag--a bullish event for equities--or ready to climb and perhaps prove something different. I read this morning that Norway's government has intervened to stop the strike among its oil workers, although I now cannot relocate that information and confirm it. However, that could that could have some impact on crude prices, sending them lower, and I note that futures did show a dip earlier this morning.

We don't always talk about what's happening on the weekly charts, but something is happening there with respect to the OEX that should be mentioned. The OEX's weekly 200-sma currently crosses at 554.39, and the OEX has been testing that still-descending average from below ever since the beginning of this year. The pullback while that average is tested looks like a possible bull flag on the weekly chart, and the action around that 200-sma assumes extra importance. The SPX has already broken through that MA and has been using it as support much of this year, as has the Wilshire. The Nasdaq also broke through it to the upside, but has been oscillating around it rather than using it as support, but the NDX still has a considerable distance to go before testing its diving weekly 200-sma at 1547.82. The Dow long ago broke above the weekly 200-sma. The Russell 2000 long ago soared above that average. It strikes me, though, that the big-cap-heavy NDX and OEX are lagging behind the other indices by these measures. Maybe a lot of the generals aren't participating? Are they going to play catch-up or is this an ominous sign?

Daily oscillators flatten on the OEX, not giving any clues as to future direction. Studying the Keltner charts may give some clues. The OEX ended the day just below the mid-channel level on the five-minute chart, with support just below near 555.40 and resistance overhead at 556.70. In order to turn the channel up again, the OEX needs to sustain levels above 556.70. If not, it risks dipping to 553.50-554.70 support, levels showing up on the 5- and 15-minute charts. That would still be okay for the bullish case if it stabilizes there and then finds buyers.

The daily chart shows that the OEX needs to sustain levels above 560.21 and should not sustain levels below 553.70, or it risks flattening or turning down the shortest-term Keltner channel before it can complete its move up toward 563-565. These are dynamic lines that can change during the course of trading, but I'll be watching out for OEX behavior near these benchmark numbers. Unless a directional movement gets underway quickly, I expect volume to be light and trading conditions to be treacherous, so plan accordingly.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:43:35 AM
Final Q1 Chain Deflator +3.8% vs. consensus 2.6%.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:31:58 AM
08:30 ET GDP- Final +3.9% vs +4.4% consensus

08:30 BT DJN: *DJ 1Q Chain-Weighted Price Index Revised To +2.8% From +2.6%

  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:09:50 AM
Awaiting the 8:30 release of the final Q1 GDP, est. +4.4% and the Q1 chain deflator, est. +2.6%. At 9:45 we get Michigan Sentiment for June, est. 95 and at 10, Existing home sales for May, est. 6.5M.

  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  7:07:25 AM
Good morning. Ahead of the conclusion of a Bank of Japan meeting today, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level and then started diving. Early in the day, negative sentiment built when May's consumer prices, excluding fresh food, declined a deeper-than-expected 0.3% from the year-ago level, against expectations for a decline of 0.2%. Exporters also declined as one consequence of the U.S.'s disappointing durable goods orders number yesterday. After that initial dive, however, the Nikkei spent the rest of the day recovering, shooting higher the last few minutes of trading and closing positive. It closed up by 36.25 points or 0.31%, at 11,780.40. That last climb was attributed by one article to index-linked buying by overseas investors. The Bank of Japan was expected to leave monetary policy unchanged, and the release of May's consumer prices in the morning had reinforced that impression. As expected, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged.

Banks gained for a second day after Standard & Poor's upgraded eight major banks after the close on Wednesday. UFJ Holdings was not one of the eight receiving that upgrade, and it was one of the few banking stocks declining in Friday's trading. Some tech stocks gained by the close although many had eased in early trading. Stock-specific news included speculation that consumer lender Takefuji might sell part of the founding family's stake in the company. Earlier this month, Ripplewood Holdings had expressed possible interest in the company, and an article today speculated that Ripplewood, Citigroup and three other companies might buy split up that stake that's being sold. Takefuji was rising in early trading and closed higher by 3.9%. In other stock-specific news, Mitsubishi Motors added 1.2% after completing the sell of its preferred shares. Suzuki Motor declined. Yesterday, the company had announced production plans for GM-designed engines that may prepare the company to launch production of large vehicles.

Other Asian bourses mostly traded higher. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.41%. Although Hyundai Motor's union workers carried out a partial strike and Hyundai Heavy Industries reduced its stake in the company, Hyundai Motor rose 3.5%. With Samsung Electric also gaining, South Korea's Kospi gained 2.08%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.34%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.18%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.87%, closing right above the 11,400 support level. The Shanghai Composite has been diving since its April 4 closing high of 1,777.52, heading back down within the approximate 1,300-1,800 range in which it's traded since late 2001.

Most European bourses trade lower, with Germany's Ifo Institute releasing its much-watched business confidence number, with that number showing business confidence dropping to 94.6 in June from May's 96. June's number hit a nine-month low and disappointed market watchers who had expected a climb instead of a drop. The component that measures expectations for future business slipped as did the component measuring optimism about current conditions. Another article attributed much of the decline to the retailing and wholesaling sectors. Many techs pulled back.

In the U.K., home builders soared after home builder Berkeley announced plans to focus its business elsewhere, with that plan including a return of $2.5 billion to shareholders over the next six years. Rising costs may no longer be offset by increasing housing costs, the company said. Many have worried about the hot housing market in the U.K., considering the price escalation unsustainable.

In stock-specific news, Credit Suisse's John Mack stepped down as co-chief executive, with analysts speculating on further structuring changes that might be in store for the company. Merrill Lynch speculates that the insurance unit Winterthur may be put up for sale but that the CSFB business would not be. Credit Suisse was rising in early European trading. In other stock-specific news, Swiss chemicals group Syngenta announced intentions to take a stake in the U.S. corn and soybean seeds market by buying a 90% position in Golden Harvest.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades lower by 10.10 points or 0.22%, at 4,493.10. The CAC 40 trades lower by 12.91 points or 0.34%, at 3,742.84. The DAX trades lower by 7.32 points or 0.18%, at 3,999.73.

  Jeff Bailey   6/24/200,  11:35:17 PM
Pixar (PIXR)Link .... now here's a stock that has been building a base. "Bullish triangle" pattern today at $69.

Big old bullish vertical count of $89 has been intact since February.

  Jeff Bailey   6/24/200,  11:18:29 PM
Relative Strength Chart of SWC vs. dx00y at this Link

Several questions regarding SWC's sudden drop back into near-term "zone of support." Here's my thoughts on above chart.

  Jeff Bailey   6/24/200,  10:48:22 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.81 (30-minute delayed) ... updated 60-minute chart (looks scrunched up, but limited by width) all seesions (24-hours) Link with reference to Stillwater Mining (SWC) ...

  Jeff Bailey   6/24/200,  10:09:45 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.79 (30-minute delayed), and just above tomorrow's DAILY Pivot. Just off evening high of 88.88, a whopping 0.01 from DAILY R1.

August Gold (cl04q) $403.10 -0.09% (30-minute delayed) ... down 40 cents.

  OI Technical Staff   6/24/200,  8:44:40 PM
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