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  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  6:11:49 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Recalculated both the OEX and BIX.X weekly pivot levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  4:46:33 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Great confusion today regarding Friday's OEX close and BIX.X closing values. While every data source I've looked at shows the same/similar close, I'm going to re-do the WEEKLY Pivot matrix with values as close to the actual 04:00 Friday tick as possible.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  4:25:12 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Changes: Closed the 1/2 bullish in ACH (see 14:17:49)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:59:21 PM
The OEX may be trying to confirm the reverse H&S that I mentioned in my 15:30 and subsequent posts. It may not have time to do so before today's close, so we'll see what bulls can do tomorrow.

Remember that this is a small reverse H&S, on the two-minute chart, and it doesn't do much to predict eventual market direction. It may only suggest a climb into a measured distribution formation, such as a bear flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  3:54:09 PM
Swing trade short alert for the QQQ $37.01 -0.85% ... should they trade a session low of $36.89 (regular session only). ... STOP $37.41 to begin (into tomorrow morning), target $36.28.

Monitor for resistance on pops back to $37.25 at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:49:27 PM
The OEX verges on negating that potential reverse H&S, showing that the bears are still in control if it does so.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  3:46:02 PM
Bucking the trend in tech and chips is CCMP. The stock is up 1.32% and above resistance at its 40-dma but still under the $30.00 mark and its 50-dma. We lowered our stop loss on this put play over the weekend to $29.51, which has been tripped today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:42:52 PM
The OEX now pulls back from the supposed neckline area of the reverse H&S. If bulls are to deliver on the promise implied by this developing formation, then the OEX should steady off somewhere around 550 and then move up again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:39:23 PM
One of our subscribers reports that the Ankara explosion has been confirmed by Sky News, with six police officers injured and no fatalities reported as of yet. I have not confirmed this information for myself. Thanks, M.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  3:36:42 PM
Wow! Just noticing the relative strength in Chiquita Brands (CQB). The stock is up seven weeks in a row and recently broke out above its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:35:52 PM
The OEX five-minute Keltner chart shows massive resistance gathering from 550.70-550.84, with that massive resistance fitting the scenario of a pullback there from the possible neckline area of a building reverse H&S on its two-minute chart. If the formation is to complete, then the OEX needs to pull back to the right-shoulder level long enough for those resistance lines to separate and let it through again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:30:22 PM
The OEX is trying to form a reverse H&S on its two-minute chart. It's still got a bit of that anatomy to go before it completes the formation, however, if it's going to do so. It needs to rise again to the neckline level, perhaps at about 550.70 or lower, if the neckline is to be slanting. Then it needs to pull back to form a right shoulder, perhaps to about 550, steady off, and rise again through the neckline. Watching such formations can help us see if bulls can follow through on their intentions. Bears should be following the OEX lower with their stops, and aware of the potential for a bounce of some degree or another.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:24:42 PM
I'm reading unconfirmed reports of a large explosion in Ankara, Turkey, near that country's Defense Ministry.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:22:43 PM
The SOX is just above the 30- and 50-dma's, with those averages at 468.41 and 466.74, and with the SOX at 469.14 as I type. We're seeing a possibility for a lot of bearish engulfing candles on the charts, although if the SOX were to close exactly at the current level, this bearish engulfing candle (not quite classic) is produced within a recent consolidation zone and so wouldn't have quite the same degree of bearishness attached to it. It's still not a good thing, however. A confirming close below the 50-dma would not look good. Bulls need to get their acts together now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:14:40 PM
I just received a bulletin reminding me that crude oil was at a two-month low today. Today's trading doesn't not follow the recent crude-lower/equities-higher pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  3:12:55 PM
AT&T (T) $14.41 -1.45% .... Moody's may cut debt rating to "junk"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  3:08:02 PM
03:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  3:03:56 PM
Five-minute Keltner channels show next OEX resistance from 550.92-551.19 and more strongly at 551.60. The OEX needs to sustain levels above 551.60 to turn the shortest-term Keltner channel up again.

With a steep decline of this type, the OEX should form a measured distribution formation at some point or another, with that being something like a bear flag climb, for example. It may not do so this afternoon, but bears should continue following the OEX lower with their stops.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:57:50 PM
This morning, the TRAN opened at 3168.81. The TRAN hit a low of 3170.37 a few moments ago before beginning a bounce. Bulls will want to see that bounce continue.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:54:12 PM
This morning, I questioned whether Friday afternoon's OEX settlement value was showing us a vulnerability down to that value. Seems it was.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:48:41 PM
Semiconductor maker MXIM is down 1.59% and chasing the SOX's 1.95% decline. MXIM's bearish engulfing candlestick (today) looks ominous after its recent breakout over daily and P&F chart resistance near $51.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:47:36 PM
APOL fell sharply last week as CECO and COCO imploded. Now APOL is bouncing back toward the $90.00 level. Whether or not shares of APOL breakout or roll over from here is the question. Bears might want to consider positions here with a stop loss over $90.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:44:10 PM
Biotech stock PRX continues to sink to new lows, down another 2.46%. Shares are nearing their 200-week moving average. It will be interesting to see if the stock produces an oversold bounce.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:41:34 PM
Biotech giant AMGN is failing again near the top of its descending channel. Traders could target a move toward the bottom of the channel near $50.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:40:42 PM
The OEX is attempting to steady at the bottom of its descending regression channel and at the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. Keltner resistance now courses down toward 552-553, but the lines haven't converged just yet. If the OEX bounced strongly at this point, it could move through them easily enough, but if not, they could converge, fencing the OEX off at lower levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:28:03 PM
The OEX currently tests its 60-minute 100/130-ema's. It has bounced from these averages on every test since climbing above them on 5/25, although it did see a mintor violation (an hour or so) of these averages on 6/22. Those averages are at 552.64 and 551.63, respectively. There really should be a bounce attempt of some amplitude or other from these averages--if not, well, things don't look so good. Remember Keltner support at 549.37, however, with that support now descending.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:27:54 PM
Whirlpool (WHR) is down 1.37% and falling back through the support/resistance levels at the $70.00 mark and the simple 200-dma.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:24:52 PM
United Parcel Services (UPS) is hitting new highs and holding on to minor gains above $75.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:23:30 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:23:25 PM
Here's the TRAN on a 30-minute chart: Link Notice how far it's traveled away from its 30-minute 100/130-ema's? It looks as if it needs to retrace and retest those averages, doesn't it? Of course, that doesn't promise that it will retrace. As I type, it's testing the ascending trendline off the 6/22 low--a too-sharply ascending trendline to be sustained for too long. It could bounce again today, however, despite the distance it's traveled from those averages and despite the too steep rising trendline.

The trouble is, the TRAN is now in danger of producing a key reversal day (sharp move to a new high in the early minutes of trading, reversal to end the day with a red candle, etc.), something market bulls don't want to see happen. That's why I've been mentioning all day that bulls didn't want to see the TRAN end the day negative, because of the possibility for a key reversal day on the TRAN and because of the TRAN's importance in Dow theory.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  2:22:37 PM
With stocks fading back from their highs defense bulls are seeing the DFI defense index trade under the 750-mark and its simple 10-dma. Likewise we're seeing weakness in General Dynamic (GD). GD broke through psychological resistance at $100 on Friday but the stock is now down 1.3% to 99.29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:18:55 PM
Alcoa (AA) $33.06 -1.25% ....

Alcan (AL) $41.35 -0.64% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:17:49 PM
Swing trade bullish exit alert for Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $53.02 +2.59% ... exit here.

Let's protect this gain. A Fed tightening this week might bring some renewed dollar strenth.

HOLD the SWC October calls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:16:21 PM
There's that 552 test on the OEX. OEX bears should begin following the OEX lower with their stops as it has now violated lower Keltner channel support on the five-minute chart, creating a breakout signal. Those can be valid, but . . . well, you know the spiel by now. Lower support on the OEX's descending regression channel (from Thursday morning) is at 551 currently. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows vulnerability to 549.50 now, unless there's a quick bounce back above 552.40, and then a move at least above 553.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:14:47 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,136.88 ... QQQ $37.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:12:07 PM
The TRAN has begun its typical (typical over the last few days) dip toward the ascending trendline off the 6/22 low. Market bulls (any market) want to see it hold that trendline's support, at about 3180, although the TRAN gets moving so fast when it moves that it sometimes overshoots targets a bit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:09:57 PM
That wasn't much of a bounce attempt, was it? Remember that Keltner channel lines have a kind of gravitational pull, sometimes sucking the candles back inside the candle lines when you think they've been breached. Still, 552.12 on the OEX definitely looks possible now, doesn't it? (Don't you love Keltner channels, those of you using them? I'm still working on my article on how I use Keltner channels. After I've completed it, hopefully sometime this week, I can start posting some of my charts and then referring readers with questions to the article.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:08:22 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.38 -0.66% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:07:52 PM
Swing trade bullish stop alert for the QQQ $37.30 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:07:18 PM
QQQ $37.32 -0.01% ... back to challenge session low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  2:01:09 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 127.20 (unch) ... session lows and backfills morning gap higher.

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 350.89 +1.16% .... recoups Friday's losses, but so far, hasn't really been able to challenge Thrusday/Friday session highs.

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 553.50 trades just above WEEKLY Pivot (552.45).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  2:00:54 PM
The OEX approaches the next Keltner level from which it might see a bounce attempt, with that level now at 553.29, but descending now. Lower Keltner channel support lies at 552.21. A sustained move above 554.29 will turn the shortest-length Keltner chart higher again, but 555 is going to be difficult. As of right now, a bounce above 555 doesn't look like the most likely result, but a bounce attempt here does seem likely.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:54:40 PM
For the last 3-1/2 days, the TRAN's pattern on the 15-minute chart has been a zoom up followed by a sideways pattern, a dip down to the ascending trendline off the 6/22 low, and then another climb. This morning, the TRAN gapped back above that trendline. I can't help wondering: could that have been an exhaustion gap? So far, the TRAN has been following the recent pattern admirably. Now the 15-minute oscillators again show a possibility that the TRAN could dip this afternoon. That ascending trendline has now risen to about 3180, so if the TRAN is going to follow the pattern to the letter, it will then dip toward that 3180 (but still rising) trendline, probably sometime this afternoon but perhaps tomorrow morning, find support there, and climb again. It needs to find support there to avoid slipping lower, perhaps closing negative. That seems unlikely at this point, but continue to watch. As I said this morning, market bulls don't want to see the TRAN close negative after reaching another new high today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:42:50 PM
The OEX bulges Keltner support lower, beginning to turn the shortest-length Keltner channel down again. The OEX needs to get above 554.35 and maintain levels above that number to turn the channel up again. Otherwise, there's a danger of dropping toward lower Keltner support, now at 552.26. Intervening Keltner support at 553.37 should provide some sort of bounce attempt, however, before lower-channel support is tested.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:39:37 PM
Hmm... Apple Computer (AAPL) has been upgraded to "out perform" by Piper Jaffray but the stock is failing. Shares are down 2.78% to $32.76 and painting a bearish engulfing candlestick.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:37:01 PM
To be honest I've not been following the latest rally in TASR but I did read the company won another order (today) for 256 guns from an Ohio police department. The order is worth $436,000. Today's $1.66 gain (currently fading quickly) is worth a $47.3 million jump in market cap. Something to think about.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:34:41 PM
There's another thunderstorm brewing overhead in Dallas. Is there one on the charts? I sure hope so. Keltner channels are just now settling into an equilibrium state, however. Although they can break out at any time, they can also stay that way through many hours of trade. They do predict a breakout sometime or another, but I wanted to remind readers that we're entering that 1:35-1:55 stop-running time of day when big players often test the waters to see if resistance or support is going to hold. Those stops sometimes get run only to have the markets turn around and head the opposite direction. That's not an excuse to ignore your stops, as you can certainly get back in, but only to think about where those stops might best be set. You do want to be stopped out if a breakout goes against you, hesitates, and then roars off again, putting miles between you and the would-be stop you thought about ignoring.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  1:34:35 PM
I was wondering the same thing regarding WMT, James.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:33:06 PM
I'm a little surprised that WMT is trading positive at all. The company lowered its June same-store sales forecast from 4-6% to 2-4% based on disappointing Father's Day sales and cooler weather impacting normal summer product moves.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:29:39 PM
As of a few moments ago, total volume was 701 million for the NYSE and 854 million for the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios were at 19:13 for the NYSE and 16:14 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was strong in comparison to down volume on both exchanges as were the new highs vs. new lows ratios.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:28:54 PM
Hmmm...just noticing that TASR's P/E at 165 surpasses EBAY's at 115 (not that it means anything!).

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:23:36 PM
The Dow Jones Transportation index (TRAN) is up another 1% and hitting new highs over 3200 (levels not seen since 1999). Contributing to the move is J.B.Hunt Transport (JBHT). JBHT is up more than 4% to new all-time highs ($38.80) after receiving another upgrade, this one to "over weight" with a $47 target.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:23:18 PM
Jeff, We had AMZN on the watch list this weekend for the breakout over $52.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  1:22:25 PM
Missed it ... Amazon.com (AMZN) $54.01 +4.26% ... on this morning's break back above that $51.70-$52.16 zone.

May get another shot, with target higher to $59.17-$59.90 zone.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:19:16 PM
After two weeks of declines Dow-component Wal-Mart (WMT) is trying to rally after Fulcrum upgraded the stock to a "buy".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  1:19:10 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 477.39 -0.31% ... tries to make another upside challenge at downward trend.

QQQ $37.49 ... just challenged morning highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  1:16:00 PM
Taser (TASR) $44.92 +6.46% ... turns an impressive 2.04 million last 5-minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:14:40 PM
Neutral, flat-lined: words such as those arise to describe the TRIN, the advdec's action, and the OEX's daily oscillator action. The OEX five-minute chart shows the Keltner channels aligning themselves now in an equilibrium position, with that type of action usually predicting a breakout, but not predicting when or in what direction the breakout might occur. I doubt that equilibrium position can hold for two more days, but this morning's action in Iraq removed at least one cause of doubt and uncertainty leading up to the 30th, so perhaps some of that wait-and-see attitude has been erased. You wouldn't know it from today's market action, would you?

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:14:40 PM
A reader was kind enough to email me more details (and opinion) on the Tobacco industry news I mentioned this morning. Thank you! Here's the email:

Judge Kessler has certified the question of disgorgement to the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, which is a higher, not a lower court than Judge Kessler. The parties have about 2 weeks to file papers with the Circuit and that court then decides if they'll take the certified question. If they do not, the case goes forward back in the trial court (Judge Kessler's court).

If the Circuit takes it they'll set a schedule, which may or may not be expedited (it takes a pretty big case to get expedited.) If it's not expedited the briefing schedule will probably extend over at least 90 days and probably more from the date the court issues it's order and then there'll be time for the court to decide, usually about 3-4 months in our Circuit. If only a 3-judge panel hears the case then there could be an appeal to the whole court or the Supreme Crt.

So while all these people are getting excited, it's not going to change a bloody thing for the foreseeable future because even if MO wins it's sheer speculation between now and the time they do win and even then there can be an appeal. So this is probably the Osama capture of big tobacco. It should be only a one-day miracle, or one hour. Until the courts make a final decision nobody knows what's going to happen.

Of course one can speculate if one wants about what the court of appeals will do. It's generally a pretty conservative court which some might think is pro business but others might think it's not. Seems to me its a crap shoot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  1:09:56 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:07:54 PM
For the Harley-Davidson (HDI) fans out there you'll be happy to know the company plans an early release for its 2005 Sportsters models.

The stock is trading within a couple of points of its all-time highs.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:05:00 PM
AT&T (T) continues to sink, now down another 0.9% to $14.49 (new 1-year lows). The stock has not seen any bounce from last week's gap down after they lowered their revenue forecasts. Friedman Billings cut the stock to "market perform" this morning.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:03:10 PM
Advest has started covered of CEC Entertainment (CEC), better known as Chuck E. Cheeses, with a "sell" rating. The move produced a sharp failure at the simple 40-dma and CEC has broken through six-week old support at the $30.00 level on strong volume. This could be a bearish play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  1:00:57 PM
So far today, the BIX has hit a high of 350.99, but it still hasn't been able to maintain levels above the early June high of 350.83. Looking at 15-, 30-and 60-minute charts, it's apparent that the BIX turned down (slightly) from a descending trendline off the 6/24 high. I see a possibility that the BIX could pull back to 347.50-350 to test support there, but intraday oscillators haven't signaled more than a slight possibility of that happening. The BIX remains in striking range of those recent highs. Anything is still possible.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  1:00:47 PM
SLM Corp (SLM better known as Sallie Mae said student loans will fall to their lowest levels ever.

From their press release:

Historically low interest rates on federally guaranteed student loans will take effect on Thursday, July 1, potentially saving both new and current education loan borrowers thousands of dollars in interest over the life of their loans.

The record-low rates will help families finance college this fall. "For millions of college-bound students and borrowers, these rock-bottom rates make student loans as close to free money as they are likely to get," said Tom Joyce, vice president of corporate communications for Sallie Mae. "The new rates on federal education loans trump what consumers will find anywhere else for their education needs."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:58:29 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $40.45 +3.74% ... updated look at my fitted retracement chart at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:53:07 PM
CBOE Internet (INX.X) 199.00 +1.16% ... sector winner among technology. Set to challenge recent 52-week highs of 202.33 from 04/12/03.

Overstock.com (OSTK) $40.73 +4.46% ... session high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  12:51:58 PM
Here's a look at how the OEX is trading this morning in relationship to its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, the reason I'm watching those averages today: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  12:47:59 PM
The OEX still hasn't been able to get above 555 or stay above it when it touched it earlier today. It needs to maintain levels above 554.80, at least, before it maintains levels below 554 in order to keep the shortest-length channel from turning down. As I type, that channel looks as if it's going to move in a straight line as much as possible, rather than turning any one direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:42:53 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.71 (30-min delayed) .... off session lows of 88.48, but post 09:05 AM EDT highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:40:06 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 189.91 -2.25% .... sector loser and session lows. Doesn't get the test of 200.00 and May's relative highs.

Can we take tonight's close for this quarter's asset allocation?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:37:54 PM
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $3.90 +2.09% Link .... challenges its 200-day SMA today.

Networking Index (NWX.X) 257.07 -0.16% Link ... doing the same.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:34:51 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.57 (unch) .... back to unchanged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:32:46 PM
12:30 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:28:59 PM
QQQ $37.49 +0.42% .... back near morning high of $37.52. Buyers seemed eager to buy that dip under MONTHLY R1, with QQQ 5-minute bar not seeing a close below that level, then snapped back higher. If session high taken out, should get some renewed intra-day mo.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  12:27:56 PM
I was just drawing a triangle on the OEX's five-minute chart that began forming Friday, when the OEX broke above the top line of that triangle. I wouldn't consider the upside break confirmed until and unless the OEX gets past that 555 zone, with Keltner resistance ranging all the way up to 555.36 now on the five-minute chart. A bigger triangle can be drawn, with that triangle forming beginning about the 23rd. Top resistance on that triangle is just over 557, roughly conforming to top Keltner resistance on the OEX's five-minute chart.

Frankly, nothing on these charts tempts me to form a strong opinion yet, one way or the other.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:24:10 PM
JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) $38.78 +4.35% Link ... Upgraded to "overweight" by Stephens earlier this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  12:09:32 PM
The OEX has been trading lower inside a descending regression channel since Thursday morning. This morning's open briefly breached that channel, but the OEX quickly climbed back inside. Along with Keltner resistance just over and under 555, the OEX faces the top of that descending channel at about 554.50. It's breached that top channel momentarily before, too, early on Friday morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  12:05:10 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  12:00:06 PM
Looks as if the OEX might at least attempt a rush on the Keltner resistance gathered just under and just over 555.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:48:07 AM
The 15-minute Keltner resistance near 555 continues to look stronger than support. That's not a certain forecast of a rollover toward 552-552.70, but it certainly looks easier at this point than a climb much above 555, at least on a Keltner-chart basis. The configurations are dynamic and could likely change during the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:39:50 AM
The OEX is falling back to test the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, not a sign of particular strength, but the 60-minute versions are just below, too, at 552.26 and 551.60. Lower Keltner support on the five-minute OEX chart lies at 552.08. Unless the OEX can maintain values above 555, it looks as if it will be more likely to either stabilize in an equilibrium position, Keltner-wise, or else decline toward that 552 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:26:23 AM
I said this morning that I would have to see how the various markets looked as the OEX tested 555 before I decided whether I thought the OEX could get above that 555-556 level. I'm still not sure the OEX could get above it if it were to be tested again. On the 15-minute chart, resistance appears to be firming up from 554.81-555.16, with several Keltner lines converging there, pressuring the OEX. If it can pull free of the gravitational pull of those resistance levels, next Keltner resistance on that chart lies at 557.28, and above that at 560.09.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  11:13:13 AM
QQQ $37.45 +0.32% ... corrected QQQ weekly pivot retracement chart has been posted in 10:58:28. WEEKLY R2 $38.28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:11:06 AM
The BIX has moved up to challenge 350-350.83 again, with the BIX currently at 350.27. As is true of a lot of other indices, it's back within its recent trading range, however, with likely choppy action within that zone. Daily oscillators show mixed evidence.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  11:10:55 AM
OI put play Altria Group (MO) has been stopped out. The stock is up 5.5% to $50.46 after some positive legal news. Late Friday U.S. District Judge Gladys Kessler said she would let a lower appeals court review one of her decisions, which allows government prosecutors to seek billions in disgorgement of profits from the tobacco industry. This is big news because IF the lower court chooses to reverse the decision it would significantly lessen the litigation risk for tobacco stocks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:06:04 AM
Jane has already mentioned the upward trend of the TRIN and the downward trend of the advdec line today. Continue to watch these, as well as the TRAN and the SOX. The TRAN has now climbed above 3200, looking as if it's already in nosebleed territory after the recent steep climbs, but setting an upside target of 4050 on its P&F chart. Watch carefully, however, as the TRAN can move quickly when it does move. Bulls do not want to see a rollover in this index. So far, nothing suggests there will be a rollover, with the minor exception of some quick-moving indicators such as RSI and CCI on the 30-minute chart, with those beginning to hook over now.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  11:05:11 AM
OI put play SLAB is down another 3.5% to $45.95. Short-term technicals are rolling over with the recent failure at its 40-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  11:04:03 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  11:02:46 AM
We've been stopped out of call play in Phelps Dodge (PD). Metal stocks are turning lower and PD was overdue for a dip. We tightened our stop over the weekend to protect a large move higher.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  11:00:55 AM
OI call play ETN (+1.6% to $63.82) is nearing a breakout over resistance at $64.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  11:00:24 AM
I'm continuing to have trouble with my charting service today, so be careful about assuming you're seeing up-to-date OEX prices today.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  11:00:06 AM
Newly added OI call play EBAY is up another 2.7% to $93.18 and confirming Friday's breakout over the $90.00 level. Prudential reiterated its "over weight" rating this morning and EBAY's CEO Meg Whitman said the company wasn't planning any more acquisitions (at least for the foreseeable future).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:58:28 AM
QQQ $37.41 +0.16% ... with new WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  10:56:17 AM
Current OI call DHR is edging higher and nearing short-term resistance at $51.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  10:54:59 AM
I'm not the first person to make note of the drop in crude oil futures (now -3.3% to $36.35 a barrel). Yet the move down does look like the breakdown from the bear-flag pattern we highlighted last week!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:53:54 AM
Mid-channel Keltner resistance lies at 555.07, but resistance in that area ranges from 554.87-555.62. Mid-channel resistance is declining.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:53:02 AM
Swing trade long alert for the QQQ $37.46 here, stop $37.30, target $37.81

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:49:02 AM
If that two-minute reverse H&S is going to have any hope of confirming, it probably needs to steady off somewhere not too far under 554 and then round up again. Like some of the other writers, I'm in a wait-and-see mode this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:35:39 AM
Obviously having problems with my QCharts quotes this morning.

Altera (ALTR) $21.40 is only down 9 cents. NOT $4.09.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:34:53 AM
I just got a new print for the OEX price, and the OEX is below the neckline of the possible reverse H&S on the two-minute chart. I could be forming another right shoulder, but so far, the OEX hasn't been able to confirm strength by remaining above the neckline of that potentially bullish formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:32:39 AM
Research in Motion $61.84 +1.89% Link ... new 52-weeker ahead of tomorrow's quarterly earnings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:32:24 AM
Careful, OEX traders and QCharts users. I'm not getting up-to-date feed on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:30:55 AM
This morning, the SOX approached the 480 level that has been difficult for it over the last few days. It's since turned down again and is a little below the same level it was trading at 4:00 Friday, before the settlement value hiked this index higher. Stochastics attempt to hook over on the daily chart, but would they if there hadn't been that spike higher at settlement?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:28:34 AM
Sell Program Premium .... based on Thursday's HL Camp numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:28:03 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 476.34 -0.53% .... opened above my downward trend, but found sellers with opening high of 480.06 the current session high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:26:32 AM
The OEX's two-minute chart shows a rough reverse H&S-ish formation. If it's valid, the neckline lies just above 555, at about 555.10 currently, but the neckline rises.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:19:46 AM
I've turned to an OEX 15-minute chart since it's been the 15-minute 100/130-ema's that have curbed the OEX climbs this morning. Those averages lie just above the 30-minute versions, with the 15-minute ones at 554.99 and 554.79.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  10:19:31 AM
Current MM OPEN profiles at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  10:17:15 AM
Black & Decker (BDK) is up 1.48% this morning and breaking out over resistance at $61.50 to a new high. Bulls could target $65.00 or the trendline of resistance (higher highs) near $66.

 
 
  James Brown   6/28/200,  10:14:08 AM
Jim's new satellite modem was shipped to the wrong address this weekend. Unfortunately, he can't join us in the monitor today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  10:03:13 AM
The TRAN continues its rise today, having now risen into light monthly resistance near 3180-3225. Keep a watch on the TRAN's action today, as it's been one of the bellwether indices to watch lately. MACD rises along with the price, something bulls want to see. What they would not want to see is a close in the red today after the TRAN shot to another new recent high today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  9:57:59 AM
The Fed has just announced a 5.75B 4-day repo for a net 1.75B add. Once again, while rates might get increased this week, the message I get from the open market desk since last week is "don't worry, be happy".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:56:08 AM
So far, the OEX is having difficulty maintaining levels above the 30-minute 100-ema at 554.21, but it hasn't given up testing that moving average just yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  9:49:41 AM
The Fed has 3B in weekend repos expiring this morning. We await the 10AM announcement to see whether there will be a net add or drain from the open market desk.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:49:12 AM
Strongest nearby Keltner resistance lies from 554.74-555.66.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:43:32 AM
The OEX is now dropping back to test those 30-minute 100/130-ema's again. Just as multiple layers of resistance lie overhead if the OEX should continue to climb, multiple layers of support lie underneath, too. That's the nature of a long-term consolidation zone, especially one that's been broadening. Where is the breakdown assured? Where is the upside breakout assured? So far, we haven't found that level as the 6/14 low of 548.18 wasn't enough to establish a breakdown and the 6/24 high of 558.77 wasn't enough to assure a breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:38:44 AM
The OEX is moving above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. The first retracement of the day should begin soon, so that might be a time to see if those averages now hold as support. Keltner charts suggest that the OEX is going to charge pretty much straight up toward 555-555.60, however, if those averages hold as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:33:23 AM
Futures weren't telling the truth this morning. The OEX opened below the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, and between the 60-minute 100 and 130-ema, rising from them as I type. Watch for a retest of the 30-minute versions at 554.19 and 553.64. If you can resist and risk missing a great directional trade, this morning might be a good time to sit back and watch while volatility gets sort out. That might mean missing a great trade that gets underway, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  9:14:32 AM
As the market closed Friday, I watched the OEX's 5- and 15-minute Keltner charts into the close, stepped away from my computer, and then was shocked to step back and see the OEX's settlement value for the day, much different than the closing value depicted on the OEX's intraday charts.

Then in the wee hours of this morning, power was transferred to the interim Iraqi government. ES futures shot up. The economic numbers this morning turned them lower, but they're still above Friday's closing value and last night's most-of-the-night value, too.

What do we do with that kind of volatility? We should be particularly careful Monday morning while volatility settles out. The OEX's 549.75 settlement price would have brought the OEX down to touch the best-fit descending trendline off the February high. It would have violated the lower Keltner channel on its five-minute chart, creating a breakout signal, and would have come close to touching the 549.875 lower-channel support on the 15-minute Keltner charts. It would have exceeded the 551.75 downside target on the H&S with the ascending neckline that building over the middle of the week on the OEX's fifteen-minute chart. However, it's clear that the OEX should probably not open anywhere near Friday's settlement value. Did that dip show a vulnerability down to that level? Futures aren't suggesting that possibility, but traders might do well to keep that idea in the back of their thoughts.

Let's talk about the OEX's value at 4:00, not its settlement value. What if the futures continue to drift down and the OEX does open near its 4:00 level? That doesn't appear likely as I type, but let's examine how that would look, chart-wise. If that should happen, the OEX will then open just below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, at 554.21 and 553.65, respectively, and just above the 60-minute versions at 552.52 and 551.46. It would perch the OEX just above the 100-dma at 552.10 and an ascending trendline off the 5/12 low, with that trendline crossing at about 552, depending on how the trendline is drawn.

It appears possible as I type that the OEX could open back above or at those 30-minute 100/130-pma's. With action like that seen Friday at settlement, I'm going to be watching the OEX with respect to those 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. If the OEX opens above those averages, a move higher will soon face Keltner resistance that was firming up near 555 at Friday's close. With 555-556 showing up as historical resistance, too, and with resistance stacked up at close intervals above that, I'll want to see how various market relationships stack up as that 555 level is tested, if it should be, before I make a decision as to whether the OEX might move higher. As they're configured now, Keltner channels suggest that a move above 556 would likely see 557.75 tested if not exceeded. The overnight drop in crude prices was at least partially responsible for the pop in futures, so bullish participants will want to see that weakness in crude prices continue.

I see some signs that we should be cautious, with futures zooming first one direction and then another in overnight trading. The market has much to digest, including some continuing ruminating over weaker-than-expected economic numbers last week. While I can see a possibility for the OEX to climb today, we have to remember that the OEX is right back in the middle of that three-week consolidation zone, a zone that has now confirmed its broadening nature by broadening to the upside last week before turning down. If the OEX gaps up this morning, as it may well do, it's just difficult to suggest a long play within that consolidation zone that's produced some choppy playing conditions already and may continue to do so ahead of important economic numbers due later this week across the globe.

Although this possibility appears less likely at the open as futures trade now, a drop below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's will see support near 549.75-550. I'd want to see how the markets stacked up as that support was tested, if it should be.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  8:53:53 AM
8:50am AP: SADDAM TO BE HANDED OVER TO IRAQ GOV. NEXT WEEK

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  8:35:06 AM
IRAQI LEADERS SWORN IN

President Ghazo al-Yawar and prime minister Iyad Allawi have been sworn in to their positions in the new Iraqi government following today's surprise decision to go ahead with the early transfer of power.

The handover, after 14 months of occupation from the US-led coalition, was supposed to happen on June 30.

But Iraq's foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said the deteriorating security situation had led to the date being brought forward.

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  8:31:54 AM
8:30am U.S. MAY PCE CORE PRICES UP 0.2%; 1.6% Y-O-Y

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  8:30:55 AM
8:30am U.S. MAY CONSUMER SPENDING UP 1%, MOST SINCE 10/01

8:30am U.S. MAY PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. MAY REAL CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.4%

8:30am U.S. MAY REAL DISPOSABLE INCOMES FLAT

8:30am U.S. MAY PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.5%, MOST IN 15 MONTHS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/28/200,  8:08:52 AM
Awaiting personal income and personal spending for May at 8:30, est. .5% and .8% respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/28/200,  7:00:16 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened above 10,800, reached down to touch the flat-line level twice, and then climbed the rest of the day. It closed higher by 103.66 points or 0.88%, at 11,884.06. A study of the chart appears to show volume dropping since last Wednesday while the Nikkei continues to climb.

Here in the U.S., we await the FOMC meeting and Friday's jobs numbers. Market watchers in Japan await important economic numbers, too. The much-watched tankan business sentiment will be released Thursday, while tomorrow sees the release of May's industrial production, and employment and spending data.

Market watchers tagged banks and some exporters as early leaders, with banks also touted as leading the gains into the close. Early on, Matsushita Electric benefited from plans to more than double sales in Russia by March 2007, but the company couldn't hold onto the gains and closed down by 0.3%. Mazda Motor's plans to increase production ability for its Atenza and Axela models boosted stock prices early in the day, and that stock closed higher by 4.9%. Other stock-specific news included the announcement that NTT Data and Itochu Corp. planned to launch earth observation satellites jointly with three other companies as early as 2008. Both Itochu Corp. and NTT Data traded higher. In addition, Sharp's patent-infringement battle with the Japanese unit of Taiwan's Teco took another turn. Tokyo Customs acceded to Sharp's request to stop sales of Teco's LCD televisions.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances, with big-cap tech stocks weak on some bourses. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.60%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.04%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.60%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, up 0.07%. China's Shanghai Composite declined again, down 1.14%. As I mentioned last week, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC on Stockcharts.com) has been falling since early April. Early in June, it dropped below its 200-dma, now at 1,531.29, and has not yet made much of an attempt to retest that average. While it appears to have some weekly support in the 1,340-1,360 region, strongest weekly support may be just above 1,300. Since late 2001, the Shanghai Composite has traded in a range roughly from 1,300-1,800. Today's close was at 1,385.18.

With the surprising news this morning that power has been turned over to the Iraqi interim government two days earlier than expected, European bourses are trading higher this morning after a weaker start. Crude oil futures dipped at least partly as a result of rising exports from Iraq and Norway, also helping boost these markets. Lower crude prices helped British Airways and some other transportation-related stocks. Some telecoms benefit from Dutch telecom KPM's announcement that it would buy back shares, although the move hurt wireless operator Mmo2. KPN's announcement makes it less likely that it would make another offer for Mmo2.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 35.30 points or 0.79%, to trade at 4,529.40. The CAC 40 has gained 32.19 points or 0.86%, to trade at 3,774.57. The DAX has gained 57.01 points or 1.42%, to trade at 4,070.36.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  12:51:31 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) with new weekly retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  12:39:38 AM
Friday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  4:16:41 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $42.09 ... HI Jeff, Could you update a retracement chart on TASR,it's gone up 60% in a week!!!! Mahalo!

Here it is... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  2:06:51 AM
QCharts futures symbols ... have had several questions like ... Under Q-Charts you recently had a quote sheet with comex aug gold. I am looking for silver for aug and am cueless on how to find the symbol.

Here's what I have in my Market Watch. Link Can't seem to find Aluminum anymore though. Copper and Palladium are INDUSTRIAL metals.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:33:39 PM
Last three week's Pivot Matrix at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:33:28 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/25/200,  9:33:18 PM
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