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  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  6:36:39 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  5:07:06 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  4:36:32 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.50 +0.77% ... higher at $28.59 after saying it reached a deal to settle a class-action lawsuit in Massachusetts, agreeing to provide up to $34 million in vouchers to class members for the purchase of other hardware and software products.

Bill Gates digs into his front pocket, pays the fine.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  4:24:26 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $59.73 -2.06% ... higher at $62.85 on earnings.

Headline was $0.36 (ex-items) vs. consensus of $0.32 (ex-items)

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  4:19:20 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

"Nice" close on SWC as the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.41 just off its session high of .... 89.48 and WEEKLY R1 (89.48).

IPIX $13.07 +2.5% has been side-ways to gradually higher and first close above unlucky $13 in 6 session. Closes above downward trend (from 04/12 high to 06/17 relative high). Really want to see an UP move, not necessarily a sideways move through trend.

Decided not to sell naked puts on a homebuilder today, might be able to do so $1.00 cheaper tomorrow in stock price, depending on initial response to FOMC. I'm looking for 25 basis point hike.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  4:05:33 PM
The OEX ended the day squarely at five-minute Keltner channel's central level, with all the channels lined up in an equilibrium position.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:48:49 PM
Here's how the OEX looks today with respect to its 30-minute 100/130-pma's: Link Is this a "p" accumulation pattern just beneath resistance or a prelude to a rollover? MACD (not shown) says one thing: RSI says another. We'll have to wait until a breakout above these averages or a rolldown beneath 552 to know.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:36:18 PM
As of a few minutes ago, total volume was 1.1 billion on the NYSE and 1.3 billion on the Nasdaq. On the NYSE, advancers and decliners were evenly matched, while advancers led the way on the Nasdaq, by an 18:13 ratio. Up volume was ahead on both exchanges.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  3:32:32 PM
Hilton Hotels (HLT) is breaking out over resistance at $18.50 and hitting new 5-year highs.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  3:29:45 PM
JetBlue (JBLU) $29.60 -2.43% ... trying to get a bounce together after company's CEO reiterated comments made June 16 that higher fuel costs and weaker Q2 revenues will pressure margins.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:27:52 PM
A violent rejection of the OEX H&S neckline occurred again, but the OEX is headed right back down again. The OEX's tests of the neckline and the subsequent lower highs are now creating a triangle that we can watch for either an upside or downside break, but at this point, it's going to be difficult to trust any break. I'm going on the theory that we might see the OEX squiggle around inside its shortest-length Keltner channel at the equilibrium level, from above 552.15 to 553.34 now.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:23:21 PM
Too bad we didn't know a week ago that the SOX was going to trade that range from 469 to 480 so tightly. It's possible to view that pattern several ways, but one way is to view it as a possible "p" accumulation pattern at the top of the rise off June's low. MACD is moving up through the signal line and the stochs are trying to turn up again, but this is an iffy time for both oscillators, with MACD in particular sometimes looking as if the move through that line is assured, only to turn right back down again. We have to wait for a breakout of the pattern to see.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  3:22:41 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,137.29, OEX 553.14, QQQ $37.39

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:20:18 PM
The OEX is headed back down toward that H&S neckline again.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  3:16:35 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:14:50 PM
The OEX's five-minute chart shows that the Keltner channels have now successfully aligned themselves into an equilibrium position, which might mean that we see squiggling movement back and forth from about 552 to 553.25 into the rest of the day.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  3:10:24 PM
The OEX may be rolling down into a second right shoulder, but bulls sure don't want to give up yet, which warns me that there might be some underpinning here. The OEX just spiked down toward the neckline and shot up again immediately. I don't know that the incipient bullishness will be able to overcome the bearishness typified by a H&S development, but it appears there's a battle going on.

  Jim Brown   6/29/200,  3:02:23 PM
If you want to have lunch with Warren Buffet here is your chance: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  3:02:23 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:58:07 PM
Is this a second right shoulder on the OEX five-minute H&S? If it is, it's forming more . . . violently than most form. As a reminder, the 200-week MA is at 552.98, with weekly candles for the last month forming right along that MA.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:52:33 PM
Looks as if that was a bad tick on the OEX, but it's determined to try to recreate the movement. It's currently testing mid-channel Keltner S/R on the five-minute chart, moving up to challenge the right-shoulder level on the H&S as well as the 553-553.34 Keltner resistance. If it can safely climb above that resistance, then it looks as if a push to 555.16 might be in store, but we're seeing some stop-running action here, so it's hard to trust any action we're seeing.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:42:50 PM
What was that? The OEX appeared to be rejecting the neckline of its 5-minute H&S, but was knocked back down again. Bad tick? Something else?

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:33:00 PM
The OEX made about a 2-second bounce attempt before falling straight through the neckline of the H&S on its five-minute chart. Unless the OEX bounces back above the right-shoulder area soon, it's setting up a test of 551.50 and then 550.21 on a Keltner basis, too, with that lower Keltner support coinciding with the downside target of a H&S. We've seen some stop-running action on other days, however, and that may be exactly what this is, too. So far, that's how it looks, however.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:30:00 PM
The OEX now approaches the neckline of that H&S on its five-minute chart. This should be good for an automatic bounce attempt, even if it's to eventually fail, but if it's not, the downside target is about 550.33.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  2:23:01 PM
Hmm... pretty odd...Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has been trading in a very tight 30-35 cent range for almost the entire session today. The stock has been a real winner for the bulls over the last few months and looks headed for the $100 level. The stock was recently named to Lehman Brother's top 10 uncommon values list for 2004.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:22:36 PM
The OEX is dropping fast from the right-shoulder level of the possible H&S on its five-minute chart. The neckline is now at about 552.15, so that could provide either a bounce point or a confirmation level.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:19:39 PM
The TRAN has been trading in a roughly 5-point range since about noon today. It's now challenging the top of that range at 3185, with the TRAN at 3814.83 as I type. Time to turn down again or time to break out to the upside?

  James Brown   6/29/200,  2:17:17 PM
Dow-component UTX is up 1.5% and breaking out over round-number psychological resistance at $90.00. Earnings are three weeks out.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:16:49 PM
As I type, I'm confronted with conflicting evidence on the OEX five-minute chart. There's the potential H&S formation, with the OEX currently looking as if it could indeed be rounding over into a right shoulder. Then there's the Keltner view. Although resistance looks strong at 553.02-553.23, support perhaps looks stronger from 552.40-552.73.

  Jim Brown   6/29/200,  2:08:05 PM
I suspect IBM is going through its normal "will they warn" phase.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  2:07:09 PM
Big Blue (a.k.a. IBM) is starting to fade after failing to breakout over the $91 level during the last couple of weeks. Now shares have broken down through several moving averages and the $89-90 levels. Its MACD has produced a new sell signal. Earnings are just two weeks away.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  2:06:58 PM
If the OEX climbs much higher than 553.20 or so, the potential H&S on its five-minute chart will probably be negated. Bears hope to see it steady off here and then roll down through the neckline, now just above 552, while bulls hope to see a new five-minute high.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  2:03:38 PM
Dow-component MMM is strong today and nearing resistance at the $90.00 mark.

Deutsche Bank issued positive comments on the stock by raising its earnings forecasts for 2004 and 2005 and lifting their price target to $105 for MMM. DB said MMM looks well-positioned for the second half of 2004 with strong momentum and that the company was rebounding faster than the broader economy.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  2:01:40 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.21 +0.5% .... continues to find intra-day resistance at the WEEKLY 38.2% retracement of 89.29.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  1:58:45 PM
I'll be away from my desk until 03:00 PM EDT

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  1:58:06 PM
You might keep an eye on this potential H&S on the OEX five-minute chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  1:57:11 PM
Buy Prog. Premium ... SPX 1,136.37, OEX 552.63, QQQ $37.33

  James Brown   6/29/200,  1:42:40 PM
Check Point Software (CHKP) is up 2.55% and hitting new 2-year highs over resistance at $26.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  1:41:08 PM
Remember that RIMM announces earnings after the close today. Estimates are for 32 cents a share. A $60 straddle still looks expensive at more than $7.00 but if you expect a lot of volatility after the announcement consider buying a $55 put and a $65 call for about half as much.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  1:38:51 PM
Unless the OEX bounces and then manages to sustain values above 552.73, it appears that it's likely to turn down its shortest-length Keltner channel, suggesting a test of the 551.50 region, if not lower Keltner support at 550.24. However, this action is occurring during the 1:35-1:55 time of day that I note as a stop-running time of day, so we should still be wary.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  1:27:36 PM
The OEX is getting squeezed so hard between Keltner resistance and support on the five-minute chart that it looks as if a breakout should be coming. That's not necessarily true, because there's that pre-important-event tendency to flatten the markets, but that's how it looks now. No hint as to direction, although five-minute MACD heads lower and showed bearish divergence on its last peak. However, it's coasting down at a shallow angle that I always find suspicious, as I've seen oscillators turn right back up again when they do that.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  1:16:43 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  1:15:12 PM
As the OEX traded out of that bearish rising wedge on the five-minute chart, it did so in the form of a bullish falling wedge--ironic, right? It's broken to the upside out of that bullish falling wedge. Let's see if there's any more follow-through on that than there was on the break out of the bearish formation. So far, it's kind of a mess of a day on the charts. Keltner support firms up near 552.35-552.40, but Keltner lines pressure it, too.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  1:11:15 PM
Another semiconductor stock Broadcom (BRCM) continues to look positive with another new high today after its recent breakout over resistance last week at $44.00.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  1:09:15 PM
Hmm... chipmaker XLNX is not participating in the SOX rally today. The SOX is up 1.26% while XLNX is down 1.85% after JPM reduced their EPS forecasts on the company this morning. The drop today looks like a bear-flag pattern breakdown but I'd be careful initiating bearish positions until XLNX broke support at $32.00.

XLNX's P&F chart is bearish and points to a $28 target.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  1:01:54 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) has managed to hold on to its gains from yesterday's breakout over resistance at $52.00 and its descending trendline of resistance from October.

In the news today AMZN has filed a countersuit against Toys R Us (TOY) in its effort to cancel its contract with the toy retailer. TOY launched its own lawsuit last month claiming AMZN violated some of TOY's exclusive rights to sell certain items.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:58:29 PM
Now the OEX begins dropping away from the bearish rising wedge's support line, although the drop isn't yet what I'd call precipitous.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  12:57:01 PM
Finally! After three-months of consolidating under resistance at $70.00 shares of QUALCOMM (QCOM) have finally broken out! Shares have produced a new MACD buy signal and the move has produced a fresh quadruple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:55:31 PM
After rejecting the neckline of its continuation-form H&S on its five-minute chart, the TRAN has been unable to confirm renewed bullish strength by reaching a new day's high. So far, at least.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:52:58 PM
The OEX did break out of the rising wedge on its five-minute chart, but it did it with a sideways trade rather than the expected (used-to-be expected, I should say) quick plunge. The typical pattern over the last year has been this kind of sideways trade, a rise to test the underside of the formation, and then a climb underneath the rising wedge's support, but a climb nonetheless. So far, this is looking more like that kind of pattern than the typical bearish rising wedge breakdown, but it's still only a couple of candles outside the rising wedge.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  12:52:37 PM
It's interesting that the (US) media doesn't seem to be covering the rising violence in Israel and the Gaza strip lately. Details: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:49:32 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 552.61 +0.38% ... just noting that session high has been 553.58 and pretty darned close to our WEEKLY Pivot (553.55) using a Friday close of 553.06.

I turned on QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot too, and they too have a WEEKLY Pivot of 553.62, so I'm more comfortable with having changed Friday's closing values from those of most data feed services.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  12:47:58 PM
I'm noticing that copper-miner Phelps Dodge (PD) is bouncing from support at $75.00 and its 100-dma despite a 3.1% decline in copper prices today.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:40:36 PM
The dip dropped the OEX down to the support on its rising wedge, and it's now trying to rise from that support. The TRIN's level certainly doesn't suggest a downside break in the making out of this typically bearish formation, but that's what should happen, according to classical technical analysis.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:37:18 PM
I barely got that 12:32 post uploaded before the Russell 2000 started dropping toward that 586.25 Keltner support, now drifted down toward 586.15. Aren't Keltner channels wonderful? I promise I'm working on that article detailing how I use Keltners, but the title of the planned article is "Keltner Channels Made Easy," and I sure haven't succeeded in doing that yet in my rough draft.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:33:27 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Stop for MSFT is $28.15. I'll put that in portfolio next time.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:32:48 PM
Writers on the Futures side note the possible double-bottom formation on the Russell futures contract. Looking at the cash market, the Russell 2000 appears now to have firming Keltner support near 586.25, but firming resistance just above the current level, too, suggesting (but not promising) that it might be pressured down toward that firming support. On the two-minute chart, the overhead resistance looks massive.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:26:25 PM
The OEX 30-minute 100/130-ema's lie at 553.73 and 553.41. This morning's rise constituted a test of those averages.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:24:04 PM
BIG test coming up for the AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 185.76 -2.28% Link

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.16 +0.49% .... has been firming after last week's reiteration of "U.S. supports a strong dollar" comment from Treasury Secretary Snow.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:21:54 PM
An OEX decline below 552.50 will represent a downside break out of the rising wedge on the 5-minute chart. It does sometimes occur that momentary downside breaks are just attempts to widen the wedge into a more sustainable rising regression channel, but this still bears watching.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:18:39 PM
The OEX momentarily broke out of its rising wedge, to the upside, but now has fallen back inside the formation. It needs to firm up here, or the Keltner lines just breached will snake above it again.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:14:29 PM
The TRAN had verged on confirming a continuation-form H&S on its five-minute chart, but it rejected that formation. To confirm the bullishness of that rejection, it needs to hit a new five-minute high, moving above today's high of the day at 3188.83, with the TRAN currently at 3183.14 as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:11:32 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,138.04 , QQQ $37.44

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:09:37 PM
Here's that rising wedge I mentioned on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:07:10 PM
The OEX currently tests the top of that rising wedge. It's trying to pull free of the Keltner resistance lines that it tugged higher along with it. If it's successful and doesn't get tugged back below 552.50 or perhaps 552.20, then Keltner lines suggest a test of 555.54. Those Keltner channels have a kind of gravity that often tugs wayward candles back inside, however.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  12:04:32 PM
The Bank of England's Governor King has been speaking at the House of Lords this morning. He appeared positive about prospects for global economic growth and was characterized as somewhat more dovish than in recent speeches. He did suggest that rates (in the U.K.) might still have some distance before they peaked, although they might not have to be hiked as much as in other countries, if I'm reading the synopsis correctly.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:02:50 PM
Swing trade long alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $28.48 here, stop $28.15, target $29.50.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:59:26 AM
The OEX's 60-minute 100-ema lies at 552.52. The weekly 200-sma lies at 552.97. Next Keltner resistance lies at 552.70-552.99. This just shows how important this level is, up to 553. That means that a break above it could be significant, but as I study the five-minute chart without any channel lines, this morning's rise certainly has a rising-wedge look to it. Those are typically bearish formations, but we've seen them break to the upside so many times over the last year that I think of them as watch-out formations now, showing some kind of breakout in the making, but not giving strong proof as to which direction. Should be to the downside, but . . .

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:55:05 AM
Washington Mutual (WM) gapped lower this morning after its earnings warning last night. The company lowered its 2003 forecasts due to a slow down in its home-loan business as interest rates rise. The stock is up off its lows for the session and rising but still down 6% on the session.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:50:01 AM
Here comes the test of next Keltner resistance on the OEX, with that resistance now ranging from 552.71 to 552.95. As you can tell from those numbers, resistance lines have separated a bit, making it slightly more possible that the OEX could slip through them now. This is near the level of the 200-week MA, too.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  11:49:45 AM
11:45 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:46:53 AM
The TRAN hasn't been able to get any traction going, either. I'm watching this bellwether index as a sign of future direction. Market bulls want to see the TRAN consolidate near recent highs, preferably with a solid white decent-sized candle that avoids the look of a possible reversal signal. Bears will be watching for a downturn after yesterday's shooting star. Some 30-minute oscillators were showing bearish divergence as yesterday's last high was hit, but some are showing tentative bullish divergence this morning, too. Take your pick which you want to believe.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  11:44:34 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,136.61 , QQQ $37.40

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:43:20 AM
Heads up! This is an Exit/Profit target alert on OI put play Kohl's (KSS). A positive mention in Barron's over the weekend that KSS should be turning around wasn't enough to break the stock's three-week downtrend. Now Target's earnings warning is weighing on the retail sector and KSS is down 3.79% in sympathy.

KSS dipped to $41.80 this morning, which is below what has been our suggested exit point at $42.00. We've been suggesting traders take profits for the last few days; we're reiterating that suggestion again today. Odds are good that we'll close the play this evening. Traders not interested exiting can try significantly tightening their stops to protect a majority of the drop from $48.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:40:14 AM
I keep returning to the OEX daily chart that I showed earlier this morning, on my 10:59 chart and nothing changes each time. The OEX's Keltner charts may be trying to return to an equilibrium position, but as I look at that five-minute chart now, I see that resistance looks less firm than it did earlier this morning, suggesting that perhaps the OEX might at least be able to test that resistance. As I type, that resistance still looks firmer than support, with support lines widely spaced, but that could change as the morning progresses.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:35:47 AM
OI call play MERQ is bouncing back above the $50.00 mark again.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:32:02 AM
OI call play EBAY is consolidating recent gains and currently trading in what can be described as what Jeff might call an "inside day". If you like to buy the dip look for a pull back toward the $90 area again.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:29:22 AM
OI call play Danaher (DHR) is rebounding from the bottom of its recent trading range ($50-51) and is extremely close to breaking out above the $51 mark. This morning Lehman Brothers reiterated their "over weight" rating on the stock.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:27:24 AM
OI call play Caterpillar (CAT) is also bouncing with the market this morning. The stock dipped to technical support at its simple 200-dma before rebounding. This looks like a bullish entry point.

  James Brown   6/29/200,  11:25:22 AM
OI call play AHC is bouncing strongly (+2%) from support at $75.00 and its simple 10-dma. The move is being fueled by a rebound in energy stocks and a fresh upgrade this morning. Deutsche Bank raised their outlook from "hold" to a "buy" and their price target from $62 to $90.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:22:43 AM
If the OEX sustains levels below 551.38 or perhaps even below 551.80, it's in danger of turning the shortest-length Keltner channel I watch down again before it ever approaches the 552.80-553 area. It needs to sustain levels above 552.21 if that hope is to be kept alive.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  11:16:32 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:12:43 AM
Can the advdec line develop a H&S? Is it significant if it does? Does it show the same market psychology (smartest groups in on the left shoulder/less smart but possibly market savvy on the head/least smart pushing it up on the right shoulder)? I'm watching a formation that looks a little H&S-ish on the advdec line, but watching with curiosity rather than any kind of strong feeling about what it portrays. If it does betray some bearishness in the advdec line, that works against what we see happening in the TRIN.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  11:08:39 AM
OEX Keltner resistance has lowered to 552.80-552.93.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:59:01 AM
Here's an OEX chart I first began posting several weeks ago: Link Notice that after the OEX broke above the descending best-fit trendline off the February highs, it's either been bouncing back above it after retesting it or else coming to rest on that trendline. Former resistance is now support. That's a plus on the bulls' side, although perhaps not a strong one since the OEX descends with the trendline. However, horizontal resistance, now at the same level as the 200-week sma, and the 100-dma are today proving too strong for the OEX, at least so far. Notice also the bearish MACD signal. None of that is good news for bulls, although each negative can still be erased.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:57:29 AM
Novell Inc. (NOVL) $8.33 +1.33% ... most active as it sold $500 million in 20-year senior convertible bonds in the 144a private placement market. Carries a coupon of 0.50% at a premium of 40% above Monday's $8.23 closing price, so $11.52 (set your alert there).

According to NASDAQ, NOVL short interest as of June 15 was 6.95 million shares, average daily volume 6.78 million, with days to cover at 1.02.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:44:52 AM
The OEX did fulfill its upside target on the reverse H&S on its 2-to-5-minute charts, but it hasn't so far been able to advance further. It's still looking as if a test of 552.90-553 might be a possibility, however.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:35:28 AM
If the OEX is able to sustain levels above 553, Keltner charts suggest a try for 556, still within the recent trading range. The 553 zone still looks firm as resistance, however, so there's no certainty levels above it can be sustained.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:31:00 AM
Looking at SELLING some naked puts on the homebuilders today. Trade size will be determined by taking $10,000, dividing that by price of underlying stock, then carry to options market.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:26:59 AM
OEX support building at 551.50, but 553 resistance looks firm, too.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:23:11 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:18:21 AM
The OEX 60-minute 100-ema is at 552.54, with that average providing resistance this morning so far.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:18:06 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:13:03 AM
$TRIN is dropping. Bears need to watch its trend.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:11:06 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 6,566.94 -0.07% .... last two sessions has closed right on our/my downward "cheater's trend" .... trading there now. Also at that 61.8% retracement of 6,573.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:10:31 AM
The OEX returned to the neckline of the reverse H&S to test it and now bounces again. Bulls want to see it get above the previous day's high, but I'm still not particularly inspired to believe in strong bullish gains today. A countertrend bounce up to test resistance at 552(already tested) or possibly as high as 553.50, yes, but I just don't know about further gains. They may be coming, but the bearish cross on daily MACD's don't promise it.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  10:07:28 AM
Buy Prog. Premium .... SPX 1,134.21, QQQ $37.31.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:03:30 AM
Remember that the immediate reaction after an economic release is not always the final one. Be cautious.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  10:01:22 AM
The OEX's 100-dma lies just overhead at 551.89, with the OEX headed up to test it. The OEX has confirmed that reverse H&S, upside target now 552.30 or so.

  Jim Brown   6/29/200,  10:00:23 AM
Consumer Confidence = 101.9 , (est 95.0, last 93.2)

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  9:55:53 AM
The OEX hesitates to confirm that reverse H&S on the 2-to-5-minute charts. I'd have expected it to do so in earliest trading, then pause either just at/below 552 or just at/below 553-553.50 as 10:00 approached. This action so far is less bullish than I expected, and I expected bullishness only to the extent of a countertrend bounce up to resistance. Beyond that, I wanted to get a look at today's action. The formation is now a bit misshapen, but possibly still valid, and as I complete this post, the OEX rises to test the neckline.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  9:50:20 AM
Yesterday's TRAN candle was a shooting star at the top of a climb. In Pring's words, the "long upper shadow reflects market rejection of higher prices." This is a bearish signal, a potential reversal signal. Market bulls want to see follow-through on the TRAN's recent gains to erase the potential for a reversal. Today, prices hover near yesterday's closing value.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  9:38:21 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 515.85 +1.07% .... VRTX +2.09%, AFFX +2.09%, PDLI +1.83% ...

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 345.52 -1% .... WFC -1.4%, SNV -1.27%, MEL -1.11% ...

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  9:38:03 AM
During the first five minutes of trade, the OEX spanned a range from 549.96 to 550.31. The OEX still holds to the possible reverse H&S pattern on its 2-to-5-minute charts, with a move over 551 confirming it and a move much below 549.75 negating the possible formation. I'm looking for a possible bounce up to 552-553 this morning into the 10:00 numbers, but after that, I'm not so certain that we'll get follow-through. Not entirely certain that we'll get that bounce this morning, either, but that's my favored scenario into 10:00.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  9:35:52 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $42.67 -0.62% .... after gapping above our fitted 38.2% $42.17 yesterday, stock gaps below this morning, but immediately finds buyers. I tend to be a buyer back near $38.16 if found. Shorts should be on the defensive again, will all eyes on the highs.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  9:33:03 AM
The OEX opens and heads lower, but so far remains within the possible reverse H&S visible on its two-to-five-minute charts.

  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  9:32:44 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $13.18 +3.37% .... announced new version of its Interactive Studio which includes to features and functionality that expand the options for creating panoramic photography. Story at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  8:55:38 AM
Before I start discussing the OEX, I wanted to remind readers that consumer confidence is due out at 10:00. Although sometimes movements get started ahead of the release of 10:00 numbers and waiting until after their release means missing out on a move, it's also sometimes a risky endeavor to jump in ahead of an important release, especially as the FOMC meeting begins. Weigh these risks before making a decision as to whether to enter a trade or stay in one.

After testing levels above its 200-week sma yesterday, with that average currently at 552.96, the OEX rolled down toward the bottom of the trading range it's spent most of June establishing. As the OEX had reached toward its 6/24 high of 558.77, some daily oscillators had displayed bearish divergence, with this drop constituting the follow-through on that divergence. For the second day in a row, the OEX settled just above the best-fit descending trendline off the February high, blending some good news with the bad.

What do we make of yesterday's retreat? Not as much as we would if that retreat had come at the top of a climb rather than in the middle of a consolidation zone. However, the bearish MACD cross and stochastics roll down below the signal line don't exactly encourage bullish thoughts, either. If bulls are going to muster their strength, now is the time to do it. As I study overnight futures action, I see some follow-through on the attempt to bounce at yesterday's close, but a downturn when European trade opened and those markets declined. Looking at crude oil futures, I note that they began climbing about the same time U.S. futures began declining.

If the OEX is going to decline today, how do we determine when a breakdown out of this consolidation zone has occurred? Some might have considered the move below the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-ema's to have signaled the breakdown, with declines speeding when the 30-minute versions were breached. At that same time, the OEX fell through the neckline of a H&S found on the 30-minute chart, although it was a misshapen pattern that formed in the middle of a consolidation zone, and so might have been counted of little validity. The OEX ended the day perched on an ascending trendline off the May 12 low, just below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but on the verge of completing a possible reverse H&S on the two-minute chart. That reverse H&S would be confirmed on a move above 551, and would set an upside target around 552.30 if confirmed. It appears, then, that at the close, the OEX was ready to bounce up and retest broken support. That broken support might be found at the 30- and 60-minute versions of the 100/130-pma's, with the upside target of the 2-minute reverse H&S likely sending the OEX up to test the 60-minute versions of those averages. Our first order of the day is to watch for a possible rollover under those averages or a move through them, always watching the trend of the TRIN and advdec line. A sustained move back above 552.50 would likely see the OEX try for 553.55, the site of upper-channel Keltner resistance, as well as the 30-minute versions of those averages. It's possible that one or both of these tests could come ahead of the consumer confidence number, with the OEX perhaps perched just under resistance as the number is released, ready to zoom higher or roll down, but perhaps jumping around enough to whipsaw both bears and bulls before it heads one direction or another.

What if the OEX should keel over instead? Presumed strong support courses below the OEX's current position from 548 down to 544, with strongest support perhaps in the 546-547 zone. The 30- and 50-dma's meet at 546.55. Yet, as this support is tested, daily oscillators only now print bearish signals, suggesting that if that support is breached, the OEX could cycle down again in the descending regression channel in which it's traded most of this year, toward the 541 midline support or the 525 bottom support of that channel. Because of that nearby support, entering on a breakdown first thing this morning becomes difficult. If markets fail to prove their strength this morning, some might prefer a bearish entry on a bounce and rollover, preferably beneath 552.

What about a long entry? A long means jumping in just ahead of another possibly choppy move up through that descending regression channel, that recent consolidation zone, just ahead of the FOMC meeting. It's just not my kind of play, but if I see strength developing during the morning and change my mind, I'll be sure to comment on what I see. However, a move out of the recent consolidation zone to the upside is another matter, as that may mean the OEX is breaking out of the possible bull flag on its weekly chart. The trouble is, at what point do we say there's been an upside breakout when the pattern has been broadening to the upside? I'll be watching today to see if I can find any clues, but I may miss them. That's the trouble with a broadening formation.

  Linda Piazza   6/29/200,  7:02:04 AM
Good morning. With Japan's May industrial production disappointing investors, the Nikkei gapped lower Tuesday. Predictions had been for a 2.5% rise in industrial production, but instead, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced a 0.5% gain. The government had better news for those watching the unemployment rate, however, as May's unemployment fell to 4.6%, when the forecast has been for an unchanged 4.7%. In addition, May's spending by households headed by a salaried worker fell 2.7% from April's number, but predictions had been for a 5% drop. After gapping lower, the Nikkei steadied near 11,800, and then climbed into the afternoon on hopes that Thursday's tankan survey will reveal better news. The flat-line level rebuffed the Nikkei's climb, and it closed the day down 23.25 points or 0.20%, at 11,860.81, but far off its 11,788.15 day's low.

Many techs declined, as did most major banking issues. Autos were mixed, with Mitsubishi Motors climbing 6.4%. Yesterday, Standard & Poor's downgraded the company's corporate credit rating to its lowest rank. After the close today, the company revealed that it expected more bailout funds than it had previously anticipated. Textile company Kanebo was one of the biggest gainers, soaring 27.6% after the company announced its plans to give control over to the state's Industrial Revitalization Corp. of Japan.

Other Asian bourses were mixed, but most of the ones typically covered on this page closed higher with many tech stocks posting modest gains. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.55%. Despite a two-day strike of all its unionized workers beginning today, Hyundai Motor climbed 1.8%, perhaps helping South Korea's Kospi to its 0.76% gain. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.76%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was one of the few declining Asian bourses, dropping 0.64%. Having approached the bottom of its years-long trading range, China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.70%.

Most European bourses trade lower today. Both in Asia and Europe, commentators mention the possibility that the Fed might raise rates more than the anticipated quarter point. Europe saw economic data of its own this morning, with June's French manufacturer's confidence rising to 105 from May's 104. The number met expectations, adding to other data suggesting that France's economic growth rate is exceeding that of Germany and Italy. Export orders improved, although remaining at a minus 14, but total orders did not improve, with some interpreting that to mean that domestic sales had slowed. In the U.K., June's consumer confidence number disappointed. Vodafone and Royal Bank of Scotland were tagged as leading decliners in the U.K., while another article named DaimlerChrysler as a leading decliner in continental Europe's trade. Some other auto stocks and technology stocks also declined in Europe. Royal Philips Electronics has reportedly reduced the price range for its planned IPO due to concerns about demand for flat screens. British Airways benefited from a JP Morgan upgrade to overweight. Defense contractor BAE Systems rose in early trading on news that its jet will be in trials in Singapore this week, with hopes that a successful trial will lead to a lucrative government contract.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades lower by 24.20 points or 0.54%, to 4,494.50. The CAC 40 trades lower by 21.23 points or 0.56%, at 3,750.35. The DAX trades lower by 14.79 points or 0.36%, to 4,054.56.

  Jeff Bailey   6/28/200,  9:01:28 PM
Bearish Swing trade cancel alert for the QQQ. (from Monday's 15:54:09)

  OI Technical Staff   6/28/200,  7:00:32 PM
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