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  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  6:33:34 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  5:56:55 PM
Pivot Matrix at this Link

New Monthly levels. I may have to adjust the Dollar Index MONTHLY Close after today's close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  4:13:06 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:34:17 PM
TASER Intl (TASR) $44.22 +11.26% ... battling with "downward trend" from Monday's high to this morning's spike open.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:32:02 PM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $42.53 +2.38% ... presses session highs. Intraday technicals show post-FOMC support at $42.21 and "fitted" 38.2%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:30:50 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 348 +0.47% ... breaks free of WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:28:49 PM
I got whacked with several al_rts just after the dollar made new session lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:28:15 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,140.91 , OEX 554.32 +0.32% , QQQ $37.71

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:26:58 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.80 -0.68% (30-min delayed) ... session lows.

WEEKLY S1 here I come!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  3:26:22 PM
I'm leaving and will be gone through the market close. I'm noticing that the SOX has made a break out of its recent consolidation zone and is headed back up to retest the 200-dma. I'm looking forward to studying the charts tonight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:21:21 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $28.58 +0.24% ... per James' 15:13:22

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:17:19 PM
03:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  3:14:49 PM
Looking at both the 5- and 15-minute OEX Keltner charts, support remains stronger-looking than resistance just overhead. That support is from to 552.30-553.10. If the OEX pauses here too long, those Keltner lines can snake above it and firm up resistance.

Remember this statement this morning? Bearish divergence at yesterday afternoon's congestion level suggests that the OEX will at least fall back to form a right shoulder, perhaps at the 550.50-551 level. That's exactly what happened, with the post-FOMC-meeting rally pushing the OEX above the descending neckline of the reverse H&S that I mentioned in that first OEX-related post this morning. I had been fairly certain that the OEX would fall back to form that right shoulder, but not certain at all what might happen after that, whether the OEX would fall back to the head level and negate the formation or break above the neckline and confirm it. It's been confirmed now, but so far the OEX is spending an inordinate amount of time retesting the neckline rather than climbing toward its upside target. That upside target would be just over 557--so meeting the upside target just means that the OEX travels up through its recent choppy congestion zone again. Not exciting.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  3:13:22 PM
MSFT Washington appeals court has approved the Dept of Justice antitrust settlement. The news headlines are flying and contradicting themselves. It appears that the appeal of the Justice Dept settlement was headed by Massachusetts and the appeals court rejected the appeal in favor of Microsoft. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia endorsed the 2001 settlement and turned down appeals for stricter sanctions on the world's largest software maker.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  3:07:33 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  3:05:00 PM
Climbing sharply from about 11:30 on, the TRAN is now back to challenge the high of the day. Hmm. That was shortly after the announcement that crude inventories had disappointed and after crude had begun climbing off its day's low. The TRAN and crude futures climbed almost simultaneously, something that doesn't often happen, as they often trade in opposition to each other.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  2:59:41 PM
The DFI defense index is up 0.86% to yet another new all-time high. NOC is chasing it with new 18-month highs while BA is only 50 cents from hitting new two-year highs.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  2:57:33 PM
The GHA hardware index is up 1.6% and hitting new two-month highs. Yet IBM continues to under perform its peers, up 9 cents to $88.38.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  2:56:05 PM
Copper futures are up 2.85% to $1.205 a lb. and challenging technical resistance at its 50-dma.

No reaction in shares of PD.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  2:55:02 PM
homebuilders are up 1.8% to 583 on the DJUSHB index but they remain under the simple 50-dma.

RYL - Ryland homes +2.77% to $77.91

LEN - Lennar +1.63% to $44.65

PHM - Pulte Homes +2.9% to $51.77

KBH - KB Home +1.88% to $68.62 and challenging 200-dma

BZH - Beazer Homes +1.69% to $99.82 and breaking out over 200-dma

SPF - Standard Pacific +3.02% to $49.40 and over its 200-dma, challenging 50-dma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:54:29 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,139.00, OEX 553.43, QQQ $37.55

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:49:10 PM
August Crude (cl04q) $36.95 +3.61% (30-minute delayed) ... challenges Monday's open. Session highs here. Same as $HUI.X ... challenges underside of WEEKLY S1 $36.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:48:39 PM
The OEX did find support in that 552.20-552.50 range and now rises again. I'm not convinced that the post-FOMC-announcement volatility has yet been shaken out, however.

I'm going to be leaving twenty to thirty minutes before the close of the markets today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:47:50 PM
AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 187.43 +1.11% ... has been finding some afternoon resitance at its Qchart's WEEKLY S1 of 188.12.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:41:47 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,137.61, OEX 552.84, QQQ $37.52, SOX 482.46.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:40:03 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 346.36 -0.03% ... just off post-FOMC high of 346.93. WEEKLY S1 right here.

OEX.X 552.60 -0.04% ... beaten back from test of WEEKLY Pivot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:40:03 PM
The OEX is testing that 552.20-552.50 support level. The big spike is likely to skew those 5-minute Keltner channel lines for a while now, but there's also a descending trendline that was former resistance crossing about there, confirming its importance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:34:09 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Keene Little   6/30/200,  2:31:43 PM
An interesting thing to note, reading the FOMC announcement, is that on the one hand they're raising interest rates a 1/4 point but behind their backs their continuing to stuff the banking system with more money. As measured by total Money Supply, the Fed continues to prime the pump. I've always felt the Fed interest rate is the political statement by the Fed whereas the Money Supply measures the true intentions of the Fed. For now, considering the amount of money they continue to use to reflate the economy, they continue to be more concerned about the health of our economy than they are about inflation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:31:07 PM
Sounds as if the Fed did exactly what many thought they should do: leave in the "measured" language, but try to set some kind of conditions for the move away from that measured pace. Kind of vague, though, of course.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:29:39 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.630% .... spiked to session low of 4.590% (05/27/04 relative low) but kicks back higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:28:40 PM
OEX support is now near 553. If the OEX doesn't steady there, next support gathers just above 552.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:27:07 PM
Raytheon (RTN) $35.77 +1.53% .... upside al_rt I had set here at that $35.77 "fitted" retracement.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  2:26:16 PM
Full text of Fed Statement

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions have improved. Although incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated, a portion of the increase in recent months appears to have been due to transitory factors.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:25:16 PM
Toll Brother (TOL $42.40 +2.07% ... upside al_rt set here above $42.21-$42.30 zone/sliver of resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:23:37 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,137.33, OEX 553.32, QQQ $37.63, SOX 484.27

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:23:07 PM
Here's our first reaction. Will it be the final one? If the OEX can mantain levels above 552.60, then there's a likelihood that it will push up toward 554.30 or so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:21:47 PM
Market Watch right on FOMC announcement at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  2:18:53 PM
ALERT ! +25 POINT RATE HIKE
Risks are balanced, inflation only a transitory factor, accomadation can be removed at a measured pace, none the less the committee can react to conditions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:10:54 PM
I agree with Jim's approach mentioned in his 14:07 post on the Futures side of the Monitor. Remember that there will always be a great trade waiting for you, perhaps with less risk attached.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:10:07 PM
Buy/Sell Program premiums ... so far today, no buy or sell program premiums have been generated.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  2:03:00 PM
CNF Inc. (CNF) $40.92 -0.6% .... similar looking to TRAN. Retracement from $35.39-$42.55.

Catching my eye is an "old" retracement with lower level at $40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  2:00:39 PM
Here's the information I'm able to glean from a study of the OEX's daily Keltner charts: recent trading has narrowed the OEX into a triangle at the bottom of the recent consolidation zone. A breakdown or upside breakout appear about equally possible based only on the formation, although a bearish cross on the MACD suggests the downside breakdown might be more likely. If the OEX should break down, however, it will face light daily support at 549.22, but stronger daily support at 546.02-546.17. An upside breakout would occur just after the OEX breaks above next daily Keltner resistance, at 552.65, with next daily resistance at 559.13. Those numbers fairly well describe the recent trading range, though, don't they?

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/30/200,  1:59:25 PM
Jeff good gravy isn't it a 5:00 shadow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  1:57:31 PM
Linda alert .... Is that one of those candle stick "04:00 Shadows" or whatever they're called in the Dow Transports? Link

Maybe you've already covered... but looking for clues as to potential reaction to Fed

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  1:50:22 PM
The European markets we watch closed as follows: the FTSE 100 closed down 48.30 points or 1.07%, at 4,464.10; the CAC 40 closed down 23.49 points or 0.63%, at 3,732.99; and the DAX closed down 17 points or 0.42%, at 4,052.73.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  1:46:21 PM
Whoa! Sony spent more than $200 million to make Spiderman 2 and millions more on marketing. (if you haven't heard the movie opens today)

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  1:44:46 PM
Dow-component UTX continues to look bullish here with some follow through on yesterday's breakout over $90.00.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  1:43:57 PM
COO continues to soar to new all-time highs after breaking out over resistance at $60.00 two days ago. The rally is being fueled by stronger than average volume but bulls should be somewhat cautious since COO's P&F target was achieved at $54.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  1:41:35 PM
As I type, the OEX looks to be headed up toward a test of mid-channel resistance, currently at 552.25, but there's a little chink in this theory. If the OEX continues down or fails to rebound soon, it's going to turn the shortest-length channel down again, hinting at a test of 551.09 rather than of 552.25. Oops. That happened as I typed.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  1:38:14 PM
The five-week rally in Adolph Coors Co (RKY) has just recently broken to new highs to hit levels not seen for 3 1/2 years. The stock is very overbought and due for a pull back but its P&F chart currently points to a $106 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  1:21:25 PM
So far, the SOX is turning down from its test of the descending trendline off today's highs. It appears to be forming a triangle at the top of a rise, however, and so we can't be sure until the triangle's resistance or support is broken. Such a break appears due any moment, but I'm not sure it can be trusted when it comes due to the proximity to the rate-change release and due to the time of day, when stops are often run. I'm not inclined to make big decisions just ahead of today's announcement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  1:14:45 PM
Time will tell but over next week, after today's FOMC meeting, we might begin to see a more "meaningful" difference between the performance of industrial metals and precious metals.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  1:09:51 PM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $14.04 +7.26% ... little pop on some volume here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  1:08:54 PM
The SOX is getting squeezed between Keltner support and resistance, but support may look a bit stronger, suggesting a push up toward the descending trendline off today's highs, with that trendline now at about 481.60. A move above that trendline suggests a test of 482 Keltner resistance. Above that, resistance lines near 483.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  1:06:52 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:59:34 PM
SPX 1,135.05 -0.10% ... right at WEEKLY Pivot

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:54:54 PM
12:50 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  12:54:52 PM
The OEX's 60-minute 100/130-ema's lie at 552.49 and 551.69, respectively.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:38:40 PM
Last night we put Lexmark Intl (LXK) on the watch list for a breakout above resistance at $96.00. The breakout occurred today!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:38:30 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.05 -0.40% (30-minute delayed) ... comes back up to DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot correlation.

From 12:05-12:10, SWC was trading $15.26. $HUI.X was 188.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:33:51 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link
Only news I've been able to dig up on OSTK Link is positive mention, but "buy on pullback" from analyst.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  12:30:53 PM
The thinning Keltner resistance was suggesting that the OEX might attempt a bounce. For now, that bounce appears to be a measured distribution pattern of some sort or another. Strongest Keltner resistance may be near 552.50 or so.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:26:43 PM
Kmart Holdings (KMRT) is up another 5.29% to $71.89, which has completely reversed yesterday's losses. The company announced a $100 million share buyback and reported plans to sell 54 stores to Sears for upwards of $621 million in cash.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  12:23:34 PM
I am showing 11 new lows for the NYSE and 30 for the Nasdaq. 48 across all markets.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:21:55 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Note: Mutliple data sources are reporting the number of new lows at 10-times the number I am. For example, I'm reporting 24 new lows at the NYSE, while data vendors reporting 240. I think 240 in error.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:18:21 PM
Research in Motion (RIMM) is up 15% to $68.28 after beating earnings last night. The company beat estimates by 4 cents and guided higher for the next quarter. Wall Street has come out with a wave of upgrades and reiterations for their positive outlook on the stock.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  12:17:04 PM
OEX resistance is now thinning above the current OEX level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:11:49 PM
QQQ and MSFT really seem to be a matched pair this morning. MSFT intra-day support on 5-minute chart comes as QQQ trades MONTHLY R1 at this point.

QCharts' DAILY Pivot for MSFT is $28.42. MSFT $28.43 here.

QQQ trades $37.41 as I type, session low has been $37.35.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:10:32 PM
Lexar Media (LEXR) is down 16.4% to $6.69 on three times its average volume after the company issued a revenue warning last night. Analysts were expecting LEXR to report revenues near $186 million for the June quarter. LEXR now expects revenues in the $155-160 million range. At least two brokers have downgraded the stock on the news.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:06:10 PM
Mining stock Placer Dome (PDG) is up 3.15% to $16.35 and gapping above its simple 200-dma after Prudential upgraded the stock to "over weight" this morning. The 1.38% bounce in the XAU gold & silver index doesn't hurt either.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:04:35 PM
Weyerhaeuser (WY) has gapped up above resistance at its 200-dma on an upgrade from Credit Suisse First Boston who raised their outlook from "under perform" to "neutral".

WY raised more than $400 million to pay down debt by selling 304,000 acres of Georgia timberland.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  12:03:50 PM
Unlike the OEX, the SOX is far from being in an equilibrium position on its five-minute nested Keltner chart. This morning, the SOX completed a continuation-form reverse H&S on intraday charts. I don't always trust these, particularly when they're just a formation within a consolidation zone, as this one was, but you could also just say that the SOX broke out of its recent rectangular consolidation zone visible on the 5-to-15-minute charts. It's come back now to test the neckline level. That's all well and good and looking bullish on these 5-to-15-minute charts. The trouble is that snapping a trendline to support and resistance on that "rectangular" formation shows it actually to be a broadening formation. Those aren't typically bullish when they occur at the top of a rise. Depending on how you draw the top trendline, the SOX has either broken above it or turned down at it, so there's no clarity there, either. Some slight bearish resistance shows up Keltner-style on the 15-minute charts. I don't see anything definitive here as yet, no sure-fire way to weigh these various outlooks. Those with bullish outlooks want to see the SOX back above the 100-dma and able to maintain levels above that average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  12:02:50 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  12:00:27 PM
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) is down another 3.3% to $38.66 on top of yesterday's losses sparked by a Monday night earnings warning. The stock is hitting new one-year lows and its P&F chart points to a $30 price target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:54:57 AM
No bounce attempt as yet on the OEX.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:51:43 AM
The second IPO today Design Within Reach (DWRI) jumped more than 40% from its offering price at $12.00. Shares have faded a bit to a 33% gain at $16.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:49:27 AM
The OEX is trying to steady, with Keltner lines snaking beneath its current position, trying to provide support. (Well, they're not "trying" to do anything, but you know what I mean.) Resistance lines course down, but of course the shorter-length MA's and lines based on them are moving faster than the longer-length ones. That means that resistance lines have separated slightly. They still look stronger than support, but not as firm as earlier. It's time for a bounce and that's what those lines might be telling us. I don't expect it to get far, but what I expect might not have anything to do with what happens on a day like today.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:47:37 AM
One of today's IPOs is Life Time Fitness (LTM). Shares priced at $18.50 per share and are currently up 12.4% to $20.80.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:43:59 AM
A CNN article is reporting the new $50 bills will be released into the wild in September. Here's an excerpt:

NEW YORK (CNN) - The new multi-colored $50 bill will be released Sept. 28, the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday.

The new bill, which was unveiled to the public in April, has subtle background colors of blue and red, and images of a waving American flag and a small metallic silver-blue star.

Although the new colors are the most readily visible difference between the new and old bills, the new designs incorporate other anti-counterfeiting features.

These include an embedded plastic strip, a watermark image engrained into the paper itself, and color-shifting ink, whose appearance changes as you tilt the bill against the light.

Image: Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:39:58 AM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) has been in rally mode the last two weeks and shares are up again today +0.96% to $27.21 after another upgrade to "out perform".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:39:33 AM
The TRAN has dropped below Monday's low and is now testing Friday's high of 3161.47, with the TRAN at 3162.23 as I type. This isn't action that market bulls want to see, at least so far.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:38:22 AM
It could be me but the Internet is acting a little "funny" today. Have there been any reports of another hacker attack like the one we heard about last week? (someone hacked into an Akamai domain server)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:35:59 AM
OEX Keltner resistance still looks strongest up near 552.40-552.60, but that resistance should start snaking lower unless the OEX mounts a strong bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:34:13 AM
There goes the "test" of 551.62 that I've been watching for this morning. The OEX has fallen straight through that support level, but should now try to bounce back into the channel represented by that Keltner line. If there's no bounce attempt at all, next Keltner support is down near 550.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  11:32:49 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,134.39 -0.15% ... slips to session low and WEEKLY Pivot (1,135.05) here.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:30:17 AM
TEVA is down 1.43% to $66.80 after Pfizer (PFE) announced that it had won a patent suit against TEVA regarding a generic version of Accupril. TEVA plans to appeal the U.S. court's decision regarding the anti-hypertension drug.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:27:23 AM
That gum sure was stuck on the earpiece, Jane! I'm finally back. I was watching the charts the whole time, noting that the OEX's Keltner charts are still loosely in an equilibrium position, but that the shortest-length channel is turning down toward next support, at about 551.62 as I type.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:26:15 AM
OI put SLAB's 1% loss is bucking the positive gain in the SOX today.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:25:12 AM
OI put OMC is also sinking slowly back toward current support near $75.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:24:24 AM
OI put GCI is not triggered yet but the stock is sinking closer to pivotal support at $84.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  11:23:58 AM
Linda, did somebody put gum on the earpiece again?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  11:23:53 AM
TASR $43.32 +8.9% ... just off session low of $42.31 which did see test of 5-MRT RED #2 ($42.37). Just turned on QCharts' daily Pivots and see that today's DAILY R2 $45.75 has been session high of $45.73.

Has me thinking .... "if TASR takes out $46.00, then could see pretty good pop higher."

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:23:34 AM
OI call QCOM is seeing some follow through on yesterday's breakout as well.

 
 
  James Brown   6/30/200,  11:21:52 AM
OI call AHC continues yesterday's rally with another 2% gain today to $78.79.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:18:20 AM
Stuck on the phone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  11:18:15 AM
11:13 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  11:10:35 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:10:08 AM
The OEX is still squiggling around with the Keltner channels in an equilibrium position.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  11:07:11 AM
The TRAN now tests Monday's low of 3168.10, with the TRAN at 3168.88 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:55:26 AM
Crude stock inventories apparently fell against an expectation of a build in inventories, sending crude futures up to test $36.00/barrel, according to one report. I don't have the DOE's figures, which sometimes differ. I'm also 30 minutes delayed on crude futures, so don't know what's happened in the last few minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:54:22 AM
Thoratec (THOR) $11.12 -22% Link ... percentage loser after slashing earnings outlook. Merrill, Adams Harkness and Lazard Freres pile on with downgrades.

PnF bearish with vertical count of $7.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:49:03 AM
TASR $43.15 +8.52% .... would be looking for a bounce in here. 5-minute bar chart would show a little "b" pattern from Monday, where after a gap above that "b", should be a cover point for bears today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:47:47 AM
The TRAN is dropping down toward a test of yesterday's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:42:06 AM
The OEX just doesn't want to give up on its test of former support. It's trying to push through that former support as I type. If it does, it's next going to encounter resistance just above 553 and then again at 553.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:40:50 AM
Toll Brother (TOL) $42.21 +1.68% .... upside al_rt I had set here at this little zone/overlap of "resistance" ($42.21-$42.30). (see chart from 06/24/04)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:35:43 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.87 -0.6% (30-minute delayed) ... session lows here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:34:46 AM
Here's a warning for the day: I'm going to continue to comment on what I see happening on the charts, but what occurs on these charts may not see follow-through. Instead, the indices may just meander around or head a completely unexpected direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:28:05 AM
10:25 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:25:08 AM
An OEX test of 551.57 now seems more likely unless the current bounce drives hard above 552.70, but the results of that test of 551.57 don't. It's now more possible that the OEX could work its way back toward 550.18, but that's far from assured.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  10:20:09 AM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $43.73 +9.93% .... updated bar chart, where I've added a BLUE retracement from recent lows, but pulled 100% to bullish vertical count to get some longer-term perspective of struggle ahead. I kind of like the BLUE 19.1% marking the low of Friday's gap higher. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:18:41 AM
We're seeing another OEX test of former support at 552.60-552.70.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  10:14:17 AM
The PMI appears to be dragging on the markets and the prospects for Thursday's ISM release will be sharply lowered. The Prices Paid component at 84.5 jumped sharply over last months 80.0. New Orders fell to 56.8 from 74.4, nearly -20 points. Production fell to 53.9 from 71.1. This was not a good report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:10:43 AM
The OEX attempted that quick bounce, testing former support. It's not clear whether it will be able to surmount that former support and maintain levels above it. As I type, it doesn't appear that it will be able to do so.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  10:10:35 AM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index = 0.91
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index soared to 0.91 for May compared to April's revised 0.52. This was the highest level since Dec-1994. This was the ninth consecutive month of growth in this index. Employment rose to 0.20 and the highest level in 31 years. 63 of the 85 components were positive with only 7 below the average. This was a very strong report and should offset the PMI to a large extent.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  10:05:49 AM
The OEX had been trapped between Keltner support that looked strong and Keltner resistance that looked at least as strong. It's now fallen through the support level. If it maintains levels below 552.73 and doesn't bounce up quickly, then it's possible it could be headed eventually toward a test of next Keltner support, down at 551.65, and then toward 550.22 if that level fails. This morning, I suggested that the OEX looked as if it might at least fall back far enough to form a right shoulder on a reverse H&S that it was possibly building, but beyond that, there didn't seem to be much predictability about what might happen.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/30/200,  10:00:07 AM
PMI = 56.4 ,(est 64.8, last 68.0)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  9:59:10 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $13.80 +5.73% Link ... "X" gets the squares at $13.50 and $14.00 after its security division signed an agreement with Turkish distributor Titan Ltd. for distribution of its IPIX Full-360 degree video survellance systems. The distribution agreement authorizes Titan to supply/install/support IPIX CommandView systems across Turkey, Iraq and Commonwealth of Independent States (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:56:59 AM
The SOX came up to test its 100-dma this morning and is drawing back slightly from that test. The SOX's recent consolidation pattern could be considered a possible "p" accumulation pattern if you're bullish, and an orthodox broadening formation if you're bearish. Both support and resistance have been widening, making it difficult to identify either an upside or downside breakout point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:51:52 AM
The 553.60 level did prove difficult for the OEX, but it isn't pulling back far, and 552.60-552.70 support still looks rather firm. It may not pull back far, continuing to challenge that 553.60-553.70 resistance level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  9:51:34 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:50:02 AM
The TRAN is printing prices near the top of the recent climb, but the tower that climb built looks precarious, without a strong base beneath it. Bulls certainly want to see the TRAN widen out a bit at the current levels by printing some solid-looking white candles, if not continue the climb. We're still on Dow-watch, seeing how long it takes it to match the TRAN's recent new high or if it does. A Dow failure to do so (on a closing basis) creates bearish divergence according to Dow theory.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  9:48:06 AM
TASER Intl (TASR) next quarterly earnings scheduled for July 20. I'm figuring the following quarter's earnings would be somewhere around October.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:42:26 AM
Once again, Keltner channels proved their worth. (See my 9:37 post.) The 553.60-553.70 zone currently looks as if it might be tougher resistance to crack, however, especially with the 30-minute 100-ema at 553.58 and with the first reversal of the day just about upon us.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  9:40:29 AM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $45.00 +13% ... Dec $45 calls (QURLI) $10.40 offer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:37:43 AM
As I type, Keltner support at 552.57-552.69 looks stronger than overhead resistance, suggesting that the OEX could still attempt a rise toward 553.20-553.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/30/200,  9:36:35 AM
Swing trade call option alert for 1/2 bullish position in the TASR December $45 calls (QURLI) limit $11.10 offer. Target $90.

Yesterday's action now has TASR's PnF chart Link bullish vertical count column established at $95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:35:50 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 552.49 to 552.93.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:31:11 AM
The OEX opens below the 30-minute 100/130-pma's.

 
 
  Jane Fox   6/30/200,  9:26:52 AM
Dateline WSJ - BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Legal custody of Saddam Hussein and 11 others was transferred to the Iraqi government today, an international official said.

The defendants were informed individually of their rights, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity. An Iraqi judge witnessed the proceedings.

There was no official confirmation from Iraqi authorities, however Prime Minister Iyad Allawi had said that the legal -- but not custodial -- transfer of the 12 defendants would take place today.

They are to appear in court on Thursday for a formal reading of the charges.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  9:20:45 AM
Yesterday, the OEX rose to test the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and then spent the rest of the day forming a congestion zone from 552-553.50 just below those averages. Those with a bullish bias could consider that formation a "p" accumulation pattern beneath resistance, while those with a bearish bias might consider it a prelude to a rollover. That resistance consists of those 30-minute averages, the 200-week sma just under 553, the historical resistance in that same zone, and even mid-channel Keltner resistance.

Widening the view out to the daily chart shows the OEX having risen back into the congestion zone from the last few weeks, with oscillator evidence mixed and inconclusive, as is often the case with such formations. Widening the view even further into a weekly view shows the OEX pulling back into what could be a bull flag, pressured downward by the 200-week sma, but one that needs to break to the upside soon to preserve that bullish possibility. Weekly oscillators also offer mixed evidence, ready to turn either direction. It appears clear that the OEX needs a weekly close above that moving average, but big-cap indices the NDX and the OEX both print candles beneath their respective 200-week sma's. The generals need to get with the program if indices are to continue rising. Another condition is that the Dow needs to break out to the upside and chug up to create a new high to match the TRAN's. The SOX's daily pattern could also be a "p" accumulation pattern, so the SOX needs to be watched to see if the bullish possibility is fulfilled.

What about on the shorter term? The OEX ended with the Keltner charts in an equilibrium position, a position they're well able to maintain into the FOMC decision today, but one that predicts a breakout, probably sometime today. As yesterday ended, the 15-minute chart showed that the OEX needs to be able to maintain levels above 553.50 to keep the shortest-length channel headed up. A failure to do so threatens to send the OEX back toward 551.70, and then 548.37 if the 550.50 level is breached. Maintaining levels above 553.50 suggests that the OEX will test 554.85, and then 558.73 if 555 is breached. These 551.50-553.50 levels roughly correspond to yesterday's congestion zone beneath the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, so have some validity from two separate methods of determining support and resistance. In addition, the OEX displays a rough descending-neckline reverse H&S with a neckline just below 553.50, so that confirms the breakout point by another means. Bearish divergence at yesterday afternoon's congestion level suggests that the OEX will at least fall back to form a right shoulder, perhaps at the 550.50-551 level, but doesn't give a prediction beyond that. My prediction for the day is that it might be a difficult one to trade, one in which the most prudent trade might be no trade at all.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/30/200,  6:53:23 AM
Good morning. One day ahead of the much-watched Tankan business sentiment survey and just ahead of the FOMC decision, the Nikkei declined in early trading, but had bounced to the flat-line level by the close of the morning session. Throughout the afternoon, it oscillated around the flat-line level, closing down 1.94 points or 0.02%, at 11,858.87.

Factors leading to the early weakness included disappointing Q1 earnings from retailer Aeon Co. and a disappointing number for May's industrial production. May's labor figures revealed that wages fell 0.9% year-over-year. Working hours declined 4.1% year-over-year. The number of employees declined by 1.1% year-over-year. Retailers declined in early trading, with Aeon closing down by 4.2%. During the morning's trading session, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi commented on current economic conditions, saying that they did not yet seem suitable for a rate hike. Banks rose by mid-morning. Stock-specific stories included Mitsubishi Motors' 2.2% loss on Wednesday after June's domestic sales through last Friday had slipped by 39% year-over-year.

Most other Asian bourses closed higher, although China was an exception, with the Shanghai Composite closing lower by 0.68%. Exporters, particularly tech stocks, posted gains. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.71%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.91%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.42%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.40%.

Trading on European bourses is mixed this morning. In the U.K., real gross domestic product grew 3.4% in the first quarter as compared to the year-ago level, increasing the likelihood of more tightening. In the eurozone, June's estimated inflation measured 2.4%, down slightly from May's 2.5%. In France, June's consumer confidence number and unemployment proved steady as compared to May's number.

Techs were climbing in early European trading, as were many airliners. In Germany, wireless network operators volunteered to cut some charges from landline to wireless networks. Regulators have already forced such measures on carriers in other European countries. Both Deutsche Telekom and KPN traded slightly lower in early European trading, although Bear Stearns commented that the impact on the firm's forecasts would be minor. In stock-specific news, Nokia was de-listed from the Paris exchange. Goldman Sachs commented on the current quarter and upcoming third quarter, saying that while Nokia's Q2 sales may result in earnings at the top of its guided range, Q3 may show a sequential decline. Nokia was climbing in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was trading lower by 16.30 points or 0.36%, at 4,496.10. The CAC 40 was trading lower by 5.09 points or 0.14%, at 3,751.39. The DAX was trading higher by 7.40 points or 0.18%, at 4,077.13.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/29/200,  12:35:20 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.39 -0.01% (30-min delayed)

August Gold futures (gc04q) $393.10 up 30 cents (30-minute delayed)

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   6/29/200,  7:47:22 PM
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