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  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  4:58:49 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

IPIX $11.44 +6.33% long was closed out at previously profiled $10.25 (-$4.05, or -28.32%)

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  4:51:44 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  4:09:37 PM
YELL raising guidance.

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  4:09:21 PM
Printronix (PTNX) announced earnings of 7 cents, analyst estimate was 9 cents. Very thinly traded stock.

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  4:06:44 PM
EMAK is warning

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  4:04:20 PM
There are no material earnings reports tonight but it will be interesting to see if we get more warnings. I will post them as they appear. Tomorrow morning GE and ABT announce earnings for the quarter.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  3:56:08 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,077.53 -2.3% ... test their rising 21-day SMA.

May be tough to hold with August Crude futures (cl04q) $40.19 +2.84% back above $40.00.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  3:54:03 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 443.97 -0.02% .... back below its DAILY Pivot and softening up.

QQQ $35.64 -1.23% edges to session low.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  3:43:25 PM
As we near the close the BTK biotech index is down 2.45% and slipping through technical support at its 20, 40 and 200-dma's while producing a new sell signal on its MACD.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  3:30:20 PM
Shorts' worst fear: Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  3:20:44 PM
Buy Program Premium

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  3:08:57 PM
No sign of weakness in gold (+1.39%) or silver (+4.88%), confirmed by the miners which continue to creep higher, HUI +1.92% at 200.94 and XAU +1.32% at 91.32.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  3:04:01 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,113.62 -0.42% .... The big level of support that has to be in play is right at WEEKLY S2.

Probably shown in other charts is a conventional retracement from the March 5 high of 1,163.23 to the May 12 low of 1,076.32. This would have 38.2% at 1,109.51, where the 80.9% retracement of 1,146.63 marks the recent relative high.

The only "signal" for a move lower that I've seen is the XBD.X 1,119.26 below 120.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  3:01:03 PM
A 1.4B miss there- talk about pro forma!

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  3:00:43 PM

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  3:00:05 PM
May Consumer Credit = $8.2 billion (est $7.1B, last $3.9B)

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  2:55:55 PM
May Consumer Credit due out in about 5 min. (est $7.1B, last $3.9B)

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:53:34 PM
Broker/Dealers (XBD.X) 119.20 -0.82% .... no strength, but not "plunging" either.

SPX 1,112.37 -0.53% .... didn't quite get a trade at WEEKLY S2 (1,109.91)

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:47:22 PM
The OI put play GCI has hit a new intraday low at $80.05. We're suggesting that readers take profits and exit the play since the $80.00 level of support was our immediate target. Those who believe that GCI has more downside should consider significantly lowering their stops. We're going to close the play in tonight's newsletter.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:45:01 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,111.94, OEX 541.66, INDU 10,197.44, QQQ $35.71.

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  2:43:58 PM
Think what you want about Ken Lay but after watching the press conference where he took questions from the floor my assumptions about his guilt and innocence have been shaken. I congratulate him for standing up and engaging in the battle and I think his statements were far more credible than the prosecutors. He could be just a good liar but I was impressed that he immediately took an offensive posture. I am now looking forward to the trial instead of dreading it. So many defendants have turned into cockroaches, fled from the bright lights and disappeared into the shadows. Ken Lay stepped right up and took the unprecedented approach of grabbing the spotlight. If he is guilty it was a very gutsy move.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  2:42:56 PM
I've very much not a fan of these stories, but the Ken Lay story could be significant. His lawyer is allegedly pushing for a trial ahead of the election, and now this ticker line: 2:40pm ENRNQ KEN LAY: 'YOU WILL BE HEARING QUITE A BIT FROM ME'

Could there be some pressure being applied at the highest levels? What's he threatening to reveal?

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:35:02 PM
02:30 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:33:08 PM
E*Trade Financial (ET) is breaking to a new six-month low under support at the $10.50 level. The next test will be the psychological round-number support at $10.00. Its MACD indicator has produced a new sell signal while its P&F chart points to a $5.50 target.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  2:28:32 PM
Bears need to press here to avoid the confirmation of a bullish oscillator divergence on the 30 min chart. That is to say that despite the fresh sell signals from a lower price and oscillator high, the dive in price has gotten ahead of the oscillators. If the decline stops here and reverses here from a much higher oscillator low, there will be pent up energy for an upside blast. The short cycles are still declining and are not oversold, and so this is prime time for the bears. Lettuce hope that they do not waste it with a weak sideways decline or a bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:24:13 PM
Market Volatility (VIX.X) 15.95 +0.88% ....

SPX most active options... July 1,100 p (6,489) $4.75, July 1,080 p (5,751) $1.75.

SPX trading 1,110.19 here. WEEKLY S2 at 1,109.91.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:24:08 PM
Sunoco Inc (SUN) looks like a way for bulls to play the rise in oil and the oil refinery business. Shares broke out over resistance at $65.00 yesterday and the pull back to the $66 level today could be an entry point. Earnings are expected on July 22nd.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:11:38 PM
Swing trade short alert .... the QQQ $35.68 here, stop $36.10, target $35.10.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:11:30 PM
This looks like a bearish entry point on Best Buy (BBY). Shares broke through support at the $60.00 mark a few days ago. Yesterday BBY produced an oversold bounce back above the $50 level and now it's failing again. I'd target the $45.00 level of support.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  2:11:04 PM
Gold is up to 408.20, next resistance on the way to the key test of 412-414. Despite the impressive gain, the miners remain at prior levels of 200.09 and 91.04 for the HUI and XAU respectively.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  2:10:16 PM
Back and in a sweat. The indices are all testing declining support at current levels, with QQQ currently 3 cents below the lower band. Next support is the 60 min channel at 35.61. Expect the decline to slow, but the short cycle downphase is nowhere near maxxed out to the downside yet.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:09:39 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,111.73, OEX 541.42, INDU 10,196, QQQ $35.72.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  2:09:14 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,205 -0.33% .... back below WEEKLY S1 (10,208.70) and looks to challenge session low (10,194.63).

Brokers (XBD.X) 119.17 -0.84% ... just edging to new session low.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:08:17 PM
The 6.6% drop in Computer Associates (CA) has broken support at the $25.00 mark and pushed CA through the bottom of its six-month trading range. The next level of support is the $22.00 mark but its bearish P&F chart has produced a sell signal that points to an $18 target. Look for earnings on July 21st.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  2:01:19 PM
Bulls can keep an eye on Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) for a breakout over resistance at the $90.00 mark. Rival SYK has recently broken out to the upside to hit new highs, ZMH could be ready to play catch up.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  1:58:17 PM
Swing trade cancel alert .... Cancel sell order for the DIA July $100 puts (DIASV) for $0.20.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:53:57 PM
Hmmm... it would appear that Dow-component Procter Gamble (PG) is trying to rebound from the bottom of its slowly rising channel near its simple 50-dma. This stock moves a bit slowly for directional call plays so it might be a better covered call candidate.

  Jane Fox   7/8/2004,  1:49:02 PM
Mark Phillips has written a series of articles on how to play the expected fall of the housing industry. (Trader's Corner) You should read all of these articles. Here is what Mark is looking at. Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:48:12 PM
Dow-component IBM continues to sink and has broken support at the $85.00 level to hit a new relative low. Shares are currently short-term oversold and due for a bounce but investors seem concerned over what IBM might say at its July 15th earnings announcement.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:32:06 PM
Ouch! The DJUSHB home construction index is down more than 4% and falling through support at its simple 200-dma.

Ryland Homes (RYL) is down 5% to $72.41

Hovnanian (HOV) is down 6.3% to $31.05

KB Home (KBH) is down 4.18% to $64.95

Beazer Homes (BZH) is down 5.61% to $92.07

Lennar (LEN) is down 4.59% to $42.54

Toll Brothers (TOL) is down 4% to $39.50 and cracking its simple 200-dma

SPF -4%, CTX -4.89%, PHM -4.45%...

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  1:17:17 PM
01:10 Market Watch at this Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:12:43 PM
Goldman Sachs (GS) looking more and more like a put candidate. The stock gapped lower a broke support at the $90.00 mark. A midday rally pushed it toward $91.23 but shares are once again fading toward $90.00.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:10:58 PM
Wow! Talk about going stale. Shares of Krispy Kreme Doughnut (KKD) have been cut in half in the last four months and there's been zero rally attempts in the last five weeks as it slowly crumbles to new all-time lows.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  1:10:18 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  1:01:08 PM
Yesterday L3 Communications (LLL) fell sharply through support at $63 and its simple 40 & 50-dma's on a downgrade to "under weight" by JPM. The decline stalled at the $60.00 mark and its simple 100-dma. Today we're seeing a +2% oversold bounce from support. Bears will want to watch for a roll over in the $62.50-63.00 range and or a momentum entry on a fall through today's low (59.82). Earnings are expected on July 27th.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:58:31 PM
Biotech BIIB is creeping closer toward overhead resistance at $64.00. A breakout would be a bullish entry point. I'd target the $70 region but watch out for earnings on July 22nd.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:56:56 PM
...yesterday I pointed out the bullish breakout in RTP in conjunction with the rally in the XAU gold & silver index. They're both up again today.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:48:53 PM
Bullish Day trade cancel alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $49.65 -2.64 .... as it hasn't pulled back into bullish entry point.

Will turn attention to a swing trade long for the SMH $35.11. Seeing some decent bid at its Qchart's WEEKLY S1 ($34.77).

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:42:17 PM
Stillwater Mining (SWC) $16.49 +2.74% ... with SWC now above prior shown chart resistance, I'm giving you my most BEARISH fitted retracement chart here. Also a trading plan should SWC trade $17.68-$18.18 area. Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:39:11 PM
The XAL airline index is down five days in a row with today's 1.73% decline. Today's drop falls through its simple 40 and 50-dma's.

The 1.33% jump in crude oil to $39.60 a barrel doesn't help the airline stocks.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:34:10 PM
The GSO software index is down another 2.17% and breaking through support at the 140 level. The software index has fallen 10% in the last five sessions as the markets absorb a wave of negative earnings warnings.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:25:28 PM
Good news for Pier One Inc (PIR). The retailer had forecast June same store sales would fall 7% to 9% but the company reported same-store sales actually came in at -4.3%. Following the news Raymond James upgraded the stock to a "strong buy". Shares of PIR jumped to $18.50 near its simple 50-dma before slipping back toward $18.00. PIR is currently up 5.64%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:20:54 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.48 -0.10% .... tight trade for last hour right here at WEEKLY Pivot.

Sector I'm watching intra-day to sense any type of sign for a meaningul bounce in the majors.

My mindset is this for intra-day.... Statement: If BIX.X and SOX.X can both make new session high, then look for some strength in majors.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:17:34 PM
VIX.X 15.57 -1.58% ....

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:16:30 PM
CSFB has started coverage on several transport stocks with an "out perform" rating today. symbols are: JBHT, OVNT, R, SCST, SWFT, USFC, WERN, YELL

Unfortunately, the Dow Jones Transportation index is down 0.68% and its MACD indicator is extremely close to producing a new sell signal.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:12:22 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 119.96 -0.2% .... trying to hang in there at 120.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  12:11:23 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 449.22 +1.16% ... with weekly/monthly pivot retracement at this Link

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  12:01:42 PM
There's a lot of analysts making comments on Genentech (DNA) after its recent earnings report. The stock is being upgraded and downgraded while we're also hearing a few generally positive reiterations. Despite the mostly upbeat comments shares of DNA are slipping and look poised to fall toward round-number psychological support at $50.00, underpinned by its simple 200-dma.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  11:53:58 AM
Claires Store Inc (CLE) is up 6.45% to $23.60 and hitting new all-time highs after issuing a positive, upside earnings announcement this morning. CLE now expects Q2 earnings in the 31-32 cent range vs. estimates at 29 cents. Revenues are expected in the $300-302 million range compared to analysts' estimates at $297 million. CLE's press release said the company sees June comparable store sales up 11%.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  11:48:29 AM
Could the Atkins fad be waning even more? Hamburger and fries franchise Burger King just reported June same-store sales rose more than 16%.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  11:46:44 AM
Software stock Siebel Systems (SEBL) is down another 12% to $8.08 after issuing a Q2 earnings warning. The stock is hitting new one-year lows.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  11:41:51 AM
I need to step out for an appointment shortly and expect to be back at the end of lunch. The current bounce is so far confined to only the short cycles, but if bulls can keep it from retreating beneath the channel resistances just posted, they will have a good chance of turning the 30 min channels back up.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  11:35:08 AM
Jon mentioned the miners were climbing. I looked at several yesterday evening. Newmont Mining (NEM)'s P&F chart looks very bullish and the daily chart shows NEM breaking out above its simple 100-dma.

Stillwater Mining (SWC) continues to climb hitting new 2 1/2 month highs today.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) looks very bullish on the daily chart with a breakout above its simple 200-dma and the $14.00 level in the last few sessions. PAAS is approaching technical resistance at its 100-dma.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  11:27:15 AM
The miners continue to rise here as gold holds its gains and silver continues to climb, with HUI up 1.7% to 200.70 and XAU +1.19& to 91.21. Bonds are pulling back, with TNX at 4.463% currently.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  11:20:18 AM
QQQ is riding the crest of a wavelet upphase (shortest cycle I track), fighting with resistance at price confluence and the 72 PMA at 36. If the short cycles don't abort their early upphase right here, we could see a test of 30 min resistance in the 36.22 area.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  11:12:47 AM
Day trade long alert .... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $49.61 -2.27 .... look for pullback entry at $49.30, stop $48.80, then target $50.26.

Opening 5-minute were $48.47-$48.89. Trading BLUE #3 right now. BLUE #2 at $49.32.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  11:10:19 AM
That pop coincided with comments from Ridge to the effect that the terror al_rt will not be raised.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  11:08:42 AM
QQQ is at short cycle Keltner resistance at 36, above which is confluence at 36.05 and then at 36.10. A short cycle upphase is kicking off on this pop.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  11:06:41 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  11:03:20 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,114.86, OEX 543.38, QQQ $35.85, INDU 10,230.

Seems to be having more impact on INDU than other indices.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  10:54:54 AM
OI put play SLAB continues to slip with a 2.15% decline to $41.66 and a new relative low this morning after Harris Nesbitt downgraded the semiconductor sector. Remember, we're targeting a move to $40 support.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  10:52:46 AM
Good news on the IRF OI put play. The oversold bounce yesterday is already failing and the stock is falling through its trendline of support as it nears the $35.00 level. IRF was downgraded to "neutral" this morning by Harris Nesbitt.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:52:02 AM
IPIX (IPIX) $11.17 +4.19% Link .... This is where I'd be exiting on "bounce" after stop triggered at $10.50 this morning.

Yesterday I noted break below "zone of support" from $11.43-$11.65 from fitted retracement, and IPIX has been finding morning resistance with session high so far of $11.44.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:51:58 AM
QQQ has given a fresh sell signal on the 30 min cycle oscillators, and the 30 min channel remains in a downphase as well. Support is down to 35.45, with short cycle support at 35.75.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  10:49:00 AM
Be prepared to exit in the Gannett Co Inc (GCI) OI put play. Our target is $80.00 and shares tried to rebound this morning but peaked at $81.24 and are now back under the $81.00 mark.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:46:47 AM
Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 119.57 -0.51% ... PnF chart at this Link

AMTD $9.73 -3.9%, ET $10.40 -2.71%, JEF $28.68 -1.84%...... BSC $83.95 +0.47%, SCH $9.00 +0.67%, MWD $50.34 +0.94%

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  10:46:29 AM
We remain un-triggered in the Bausch Lomb (BOL) call play. The stock is slipping toward minor support at $63.00 and its simple 40 & 50-dma's. If it doesn't begin to bounce by Friday afternoon we may close this unopened.

  James Brown   7/8/2004,  10:44:35 AM
OI call play Amerada Hess (AHC) managed to hit another new high this morning but is now slipping lower, down 54 cents to $81.39.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:44:12 AM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,115.70 , OEX 543.91, QQQ $35.87

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:38:18 AM
Market Volatility (VIX.X) 15.79 -0.12% ... juuuust edges red.

SPX most active options.... July 1,115 p (1,877), Jul 1,100 p (1,412), July 1,090 p (1,113)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:34:50 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:33:21 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:33:00 AM
GE to a session low here.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:32:55 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:31:37 AM
The strength in gold is only now being confirmed in the miners, with HUI up 1.46% to 200.22, XAU +.84% at 90.9. Silver is holding its 3.74% gain at 6.35, up 22.9 cents today. These round number levels are resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:29:19 AM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,115.06, OEX 543.17, QQQ $35.90

  Jane Fox   7/8/2004,  10:29:08 AM
Dateline CNN - Homeland Security chief to warn of possible al Qaeda attack to influence U.S. elections, administration official tells CNN.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:24:14 AM
Listening to Senator Bennett talk up the recovery in jobs on CSpan, I'd love to "allocate to myself such time as I might consume" and point out a statistic I saw yesterday, to the effect that of the top 20 growing employment categories, only 3 require a college degree.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:21:37 AM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,113.40, OEX 542.59, QQQ $35.80.

  Jane Fox   7/8/2004,  10:17:30 AM
Dateline WSJ - Ratcheting up an inquiry into an obscure corner of the securities industry, the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating about 20 instances in which hedge funds may have used insider information to profit from coming stock offerings, according to people familiar with the matter.

The inquiry is focused on deals known as private investments in public equity -- or Pipes -- that small public companies use to raise cash quickly. In such deals, companies with limited financing options sell sophisticated investors a class of discount-priced stock shares that can't be traded publicly until some later date. Because the deal can eventually flood the market with additional shares, Pipe deals drive down a company's stock price.

The SEC is investigating whether hedge funds, tipped off to Pipe deals by brokers looking for interested buyers, made bets against the companies' stocks before the deals were consummated and disclosed publicly -- through the legal practice of "shorting," or selling borrowed shares in a bet that those companies' stock prices would decline.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:16:29 AM
IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $11.14 +4% .... uh...huh.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:14:48 AM
Swing Trade put option close out alert ... Stick the Dow Diamond (DIA) July $100 puts (DIASV) out there at $0.20.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:11:09 AM
A 9B overnight repo makes it a 1B net add for the day. Note that bonds popped contemporaneously with the announcement.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:10:05 AM
10:05 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  10:09:13 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,114.61, OEX 542.75, QQQ $35.86

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:05:12 AM
Session highs for gold, silver and QQQ here- 35.95, 406.1 and 6.34. Add bonds to the list as well.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  10:01:50 AM
The short cycle channel is pointed north for QQQ, with 30 min resistance descending and currently at 36.30, way above the 72 PMA at 36.05. I see resistance every 5 cents to 36.10 from here.

  Jim Brown   7/8/2004,  10:01:48 AM
MAPI Survey = 80% (last 78%)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:59:47 AM
The SOX has gone green, up .2% to 444.97.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:59:03 AM
A 3.5B 8-day repo just announced, bring the daily count to 14.5B against 22.5B expiring. Still awaiting the overnight repo announcement.

  Jane Fox   7/8/2004,  9:57:18 AM
Dateline WSJ - Former Enron Chief Executive Kenneth Lay stands charged in federal court in Houston on criminal counts stemming from a wide-ranging scheme to deceive the public, investors, regulators and others about the health of the energy company, according to a federal indictment unsealed this morning.

Prosecutors from the Justice Department's Enron Task Force presented an indictment to U.S. Magistrate Judge Mary Milloy in Houston yesterday, and at their request she sealed both the indictment and an arrest warrant, sources familiar with the matter said. The indictment was unsealed this morning.

Details on the charges weren't immediately available.

A hearing before Judge Milloy has been scheduled for 12:30 p.m. EDT today.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:56:46 AM
Bonds are cruising higher here, with TNX now down .8 bps at 4.464%. 4.56% is next support, followed by 4.4%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:45:37 AM
The advance is iffy for the miners despite the strength in the metals. Gold is at 405.5 here, but HUI is up just .45% and XAU flat.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:44:10 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $29.66 -8.98% ... normal session low has been $28.99. Keeping it above $28.80 and trying to force the $30 puts holders out.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:43:41 AM
The current rise has a choppy, flaggy feel to it, but after a clothesline drop like we saw yesterday, there's no other way for it to occur. The expanding wedge on the ES futures is troublesome, but the bounce off the overnight lows continues to advance.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:41:25 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) ... 346.94 -0.25% ...

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:40:48 AM
Securities Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 119.87 -0.26% ....

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:40:29 AM
Yesterday's support is now acting as resistance on QQQ, with two doji spikes at 35.90 blowing off on the 150 tick candles. Above 35.90, resitance is at .95, then at 36.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:40:11 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 444.03 (unch)

QQQ $35.88 -0.59% ...

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:34:36 AM
QQQ has short cycle support at 35.60 now, and the lower 30 min Keltner channel is down to 35.75, current support since the cash open. A short cycle upphase could start at any time from these levels, counter to the ongoing daily and 30 min cycle downphases.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:34:20 AM
Swing trade exit alert for IPIX Corp. (IPIX) $10.25

Pre-market low was $10.00. If looking for a bounce exit, I'd be looking to exit back higher near $11.50.

  Jeff Bailey   7/8/2004,  9:29:33 AM
Swing trade adjust stop alert for IPIX Corp. (IPIX) to $10.25.

Stock futures have been edging off their lows, and with IPIX doing the same, $10.50 now, I think we could get a bounce after the open.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:20:20 AM
Session high for ZN bonds here, with TNX up .7 bps at 4.478% and pulling back slightly.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  9:14:26 AM
An 11B 14-day repo leaves 11.5B expiring for the day by my count. Awaiting the updates in the 10AM announcement from the Fed.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  8:49:21 AM
I'm having technical difficulties here, thanks to a crash in my virus scanner, currently in the middle of a reinstall. Gold is at a session high of 405 here, testing the previous high, while we're seeing a bounce in equities following the initial claims release. QQQ is up to 35.75, Dow futs up to 10200.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  8:30:51 AM
8:29am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 39,000 TO 310,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 10,250 TO 336,000


  Jonathan Levinson   7/8/2004,  8:13:54 AM
Awaiting initial claims at 8:30, est. 345K.

  Linda Piazza   7/8/2004,  7:12:50 AM
I posted a note on the OEX action yesterday and possible action today at 12:32 last night, so you can look for the information there. Unfortunately, I'm still sick this morning. I'll try to join you on the MM later today, if possible.

  Linda Piazza   7/8/2004,  7:06:08 AM
Good morning. Led lower by Internet-related stocks after Yahoo disappointed after the close yesterday, the Nikkei fell in early trading. May's machinery orders were due after the open, too, and were expected to drop 3.7% after April's big gain. Jitteriness ahead of this weekend's election also pressured the Japanese bourses. However, chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron and telecom-related stock NTT DoCoMo had better news than Yahoo's. Tokyo Electron noted orders that more than doubled from the year-ago period. NTT DoCoMo revealed that June's subscriptions were high enough to put it ahead of competitor KDDI. Even Tokyo Electron couldn't hold onto its gains by the close, however, closing lower by 1.1%.

May's machinery orders fell 2.1%, a better-than-expected result. However, market watchers note that the number can be volatile. The Nikkei tried to steady early in the afternoon session, but then dropped until the last few minutes of trading, when it erased 40 points of its losses. It closed down 62.63 points or 0.55%, at 11,322.23.

Other Asian bourses mostly traded lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.25%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 2.39%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.71%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.63%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.10%, however, as the bourse attempts to head up again within the roughly 11,300-11,800 trading range it's built since late 2001.

European bourses turn in mixed performances this morning. The FTSE 100 trades near the flat-line level just ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision. The Bank of England is not expected to change rates. Germany's May industrial production rose 1.1% month-over-month, a better-than-expected gain, but the DAX was trading lower this morning. European software companies saw their stocks drop after cautions from PeopleSoft and Siebel Systems yesterday.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 3.10 points or 0.07%, to 4,361.50. The CAC 40 is down 9.60 points or 0.26%, at 3,650.80. The DAX is down 17.62 points or 0.45%, to 3,912.96.

  Jeff Bailey   7/7/2004,  12:51:19 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $32.60 -1.86% .... here an after-hours chart of YHOO with retracement from the strangle question at 02:47:44 PM yesterday. Link

The July $35 calls go "poof".... question now is .... "can the options market makers get the $30 puts to go "poof" too.

Might get a day trade on this one tomorrow.

  Linda Piazza   7/7/2004,  12:32:53 AM
Note on the OEX action: I've mentioned at other times that I like to watch both the 200-sma and -ema's on the daily charts of some indices. I also like to watch both on the weekly charts, and actually prefer the ema on that time frame. That's because the ema gives more weight to recent prices than to distant ones. On the OEX, I've been paying special attention to the 200-week sma because it's been pressuring the OEX lower since the beginning of the year. However, a glance at the OEX's weekly chart shows that the 200-week ema sits at 543.49, just below the OEX's Wednesday close. The OEX pierced that average Tuesday but has since bounced back above that important level. It does appear important for us to watch this average as well as the 200-sma that was until now also helping to support the OEX.

Weekly stochastics turned lower in mid-cycle. Daily 21(3)3 stochastics reach toward the signal line. Daily MACD histogram levels are now negative, but MACD lines approach the signal line, a time at which they can sometimes fool bears and turn right back up again.

Wednesday, I expected a tight-range consolidation day with a slight bounce. Eventually that's what we got, although the OEX did not quite reach the 546.60-547 level that the Keltner channels kept suggesting might be possible. The OEX did rise far enough to test the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that I had suggested OEX traders might watch on Wednesday morning. It pulled back from that test.

What do I expect for Thursday? Yahoo's disappointing earnings landed a blow on the chin of the futures. As I type, they have not been able to recover, with our equities possibly pressured by the Nikkei's decline in its morning session. If this weakness in futures continues into tomorrow's open, it's possible that the OEX could open below the 200-sma at 542.16, and also below the possible bear flag formation that had formed Tuesday and Wednesday. If that happens, Keltners will have been violated to the downside, creating a breakout signal, but showing the OEX vulnerable to a bounce up to mid-channel support again. If there's a bounce, watch for a retest of those important benchmarks, the 200-sma and the flag's support, as well as the 15-minute 100/130-ema's for possible rollover entries. Be sure to pay attention to TRIN levels and other markets for signs that the OEX will bounce instead of roll over, however, and set account-appropriate stops, adhering to them. Before you enter any bearish play on a possible rollover after a retest of broken support, be aware of the daily 200-ema at 538.18. That's another possible bounce point, a strong one. A failure to hold there could see the OEX roll lower inside its descending regression channel that's guided trading all year.

As I type this, I'm running a high fever, so it's possible that I will not be on the Monitor tomorrow morning. If not, be sure to turn to the Futures side of the Monitor, too, and pay attention to volume patterns and TRIN levels being noted there to help guide your trading.

  Jeff Bailey   7/7/2004,  12:32:42 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   7/7/2004,  12:32:29 AM
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