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  James Brown   7/15/200,  6:29:38 PM
There were actually four split announcements thus far today.

The IVX one Jim mentioned and...

VLO proposes a 2-for-1 subject to shareholder approval.

IMGC announced a 3-for-2 payable on August 17th.

ZBRA announced a 3-for-2 payable on August 25th.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  5:54:04 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

QQQ short $35.20 and July $35 naked put traders ....

Look at tomorrow's daily S1 and WEEKLY S2 correlation. This would become a target for the QQQ short, and I'm going to lower the STOP in the underlying QQQ short to $35.38. Check out tomorrow's DAILY Pivot. Thats pretty close to our bearish $35.20 entry isn't it?

Now for the NAKED put. See tomorrow's DAILY S2 ($34.79)? Yes, take the $35.00 strike, less the $0.20 premium received ($35 - $0.20 = $34.80), and this is a point of focus isn't it? You can be darned certain it is for options market makers too.

Here's what we do into tomorrow's expiration for the QQQ short/July $35 put trade.

Between $34.93 and $35.35 we do NOTHING!

IF QQQ trades $34.93, we become alert for firming, think about closing out the QQQ underlying short for profit, but then we're completely naked again on the July $35 puts (probably a light bid/ heavy ask $0.15 x $0.20, or heavy bid/light offer $0.10 x $0.15).

Determiner to cover the QQQ underlying short at $34.93 is IF the BIX.X above DAILY Pivot!

Ideal QQQ underlying short cover point is closer to $34.79, THEN take our chances to the close, and perhaps see some "TASR-like" action back toward $35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  4:58:27 PM
Rambus (RMBS) $15.29 +4.51% Link ... jumps to $16.97 after reporting Q2 June EPS of $0.08 per share, which was 2-cents better than consensus. Revenues up 19.9% year-over-year to $35 million versus $33.4 million consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  4:52:17 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/15/200,  4:46:48 PM
IVX announces a 5:4 split, (why bother?)

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/15/200,  4:40:08 PM
IBM Conference Calls Highlights
IBM saying analysts estimates remain reasonable.
IBM used exact same words for guidance as they did last quarter.
Anticipating margin improvements ahead.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/15/200,  4:32:21 PM
HOTT - warning

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  4:14:33 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

Time stamped just after IBM headline numbers (for QQQ)

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/15/200,  4:06:16 PM
Alert - Earnings today after the close:

IBM est +1.12, actual = +1.16 beat
LSS est +0.99, actual = +1.11 beat
LEXR est -0.19, actual = -0.23 miss
NFLX est +0.13, actual = +0.11 miss
PMCS est +0.07, actual = +0.08 beat
RMBS est +0.06, actual = +0.08 beat

IBM called analyst estimates "reasonable" mid quarter

NFLX trading down -3.61 in after hours.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:59:56 PM
When the OEX consolidated near both the 200-sma and 200-ema in May, it built a consolidation range roughly from 537.30 down to 531.30, although it traded higher and lower than those levels. The OEX's touch of its 200-ema and the approach to that consolidation zone should slow the descent now. Daily Keltners now suggest, however, that unless the OEX can get back above 543.71 and maintain levels above that, it's pointed down toward 532.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:57:50 PM
Note that yesterday's QQQ close was 35.19- and here we are. Any guesses as to where it closes tomorrow?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  3:56:39 PM
Swing trade covered call close out alert .... May have dodged the bullet this morning.

Close out (buy it back) the TASR July $40 Call (QURGH) at $0.90.

My thinking here, based on intra-day observation, is if market makers are squared up on July expiration, if they gap the stock above $42.20, then the covered call profits go "poof"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:56:29 PM
The OEX has hit its 200-ema. The SPX heads down toward its 200-sma. Now I get it: the SPX is going to close right on that average, isn't it, to further confuse everyone. Bulls will say it held it; bears will say it's perched on the edge of a precipice. Glad I'm not writing the Market Wrap tonight. Grin.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:54:24 PM
Session lows in the Dow and SPX futures. QQQ holding 35.20 here, with 30 and 60 min channel support lined up at 35.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:54:11 PM
Wow. While I wasn't looking, the TRAN shot up past 3100 again, at 3126.10 as I type. The TRAN has definitely broken out of its potential bear flag, and has done so to the upside. It faces resistance near 3150, and the 200-sma is far, far below. The Dow has still not come anywhere near the TRAN's feat of producing a new closing high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:51:04 PM
There went the double-bottom possibility on the OEX's five-, ten-, or fifteen-minute chart.

The OEX's smallest Keltner channel still points toward 538.46, however. Oops. started moving lower as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:41:36 PM
QQQ is staging a return to the scene of the crime bounce now, testing the broken rising trendline from below. Upside volume was much heavier than the volume it took to drop below the trendline- my bullish goggles here suggest that it could be accumulation going on, but below 35.24, that interpretation will be suspect.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:41:21 PM
Another potential bullish formation bites the dust: the OEX has probably drifted below the right-shoulder level of the potential reverse H&S on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:40:30 PM
The OEX drifts closer to its 200-ema again, but the SPX is still more than six points above its 200-sma at 1103.21.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:40:28 PM
Banking stock NTRS is breaking down to new one-year lows under the $39.50 level. This might be a bearish entry point but earnings are expected on July 21st.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:35:57 PM
And GE continues to press higher still now up .91% at 33.43. The SPX and Dow would be lower but for the bid in GE.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:34:52 PM
OI call play PD is climbing back above the $80.00 mark.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:34:48 PM
This break on QQQ certainly spoils the symmetry on the 2 day reverse h&s scenario/ intraday rising triangle: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:31:51 PM
Session low for INTC here at 23.19, session high just now for GE at 33.38.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:30:41 PM
QQQ breaking support as I type, but so far it's on light volume.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:30:06 PM
QQQ is resting on the line- I wonder if the price can just stop dead here? The short cycle and 30 min channels are no help, while the 30 min cycles point up (against the slight downtick in the 30 min channels). This is a perfectly mixed picture, always in the context of the daily cycle downphase that is close to but not yet at the bottom of its run. I'm looking for a bullish breakout above 35.50, bearish breakdown below 35.00, and in the middle here, an endless range that doesn't want to break.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:28:03 PM
The Nasdaq has not been able to follow through on the potential reversal signal produced yesterday, but it may be producing another one today, a doji. Of course, that depends on what happens into the close. As we saw yesterday, 30 minute can change everything.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:24:18 PM
Rising support held despite 5 probes below it, all of which reversed leaving downside doji shadows. Next challenge for bulls here is for QQQ to break 35.40, above which 35.44-35.50 are the major hurdle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  3:23:21 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Updated intra-day 5 and 10-day NH/NL indications.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:21:12 PM
OI call AET is pushing higher to trade above the $87.50 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:18:46 PM
I keep waiting for some sort of bounce to give us a better entry point on AZO and it just keeps drifting lower. The stock has broken multiple support levels in the last three weeks and its P&F chart points to a $63 target. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  3:13:16 PM
Here are the warring (bullish) reverse H&S formation on the five-minute chart Link and the regular (bearish) H&S on the 15-minute one Link . Note that the 15-minute formation set up in a consolidation zone and so might not have as much validity as a topping H&S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:10:24 PM
GE is printing a session high here. A spike below rising support has just corrected to the upside. False breaks in both directions all day long- this has to be opex Thursday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  3:07:08 PM
QQQ is testing rising trendline support here. The short cycles are in a downphase but have plenty of room to run lower before reaching oversold.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:06:12 PM
Oil well/services stock Baker Hughes Intl (BHI) has broken out above four-month old resistance at the $39.00 level but still faces resistance at the $40.00 mark dating back to March 2002. Shares of BHI look a bit overbought up six weeks in a row.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  3:03:23 PM
TASER (TASR) $40.65 +2.13% .... it has to be option-related. Link

There was a pretty good jump in July $40 call action on that rise too.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  3:01:25 PM
Insurance stock Progressive (PGR) is down 3% and breaking through significant support at the $80.00 mark after reporting earnings yesterday that only beat estimates by a penny. UBS came out today to reiterate their "reduce" rating. The breakdown looks pretty bearish on its P&F chart too. This could be a momentum entry point to open bearish positions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:56:51 PM
Jeff, the OEX is displaying battling formations: a H&S on the 15-minute chart, possibly not trustworthy as it's rougher and formed within consolidation, and that reverse H&S on its 5-minute chart, so I'm not so sure that bulls and bears have fought their way to a conclusion. I'm afraid the competitive bullish and bearish formations just mean we'll see more aimless wandering. (See Jeff's 14:43 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  2:56:48 PM
Back. The nice thing about the opex tractor beam is that it's possible to miss little on the indices when distracted.

That rising QQQ support line is at 35.29. 30 min channel support is up to 35.15, 60 min to 35.07, while resistance hasn't budged at 35.57 (combined channels). This is a stunningly stable channel setup- but I'm still thinking that a break above 35.50 could get some upside fireworks started.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:55:48 PM
Hmm... Countrywide Financial (CFC) is breaking out to new all-time highs after consolidating sideways in a tight range for the last four weeks. Earnings are expected on July 22nd.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:50:32 PM
For reference, the OEX's 200-sma is at 543.017 today, so the OEX would hit that possible resistance about a point after moving through the neckline of the possible reverse H&S on its five-minute chart. Not much room to run. The five-minute Keltner channels suggest an upside of 544.70 if the OEX can clear 542.20 and keep above that level. I have noticed that the OEX hasn't so much been stopped by the 200-sma as it has used it as a central point around which to oscillate.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:44:32 PM
Gulp! .... TASR $41.14 +3.52% ... BIIIIIG volume spike 886,000 in last 5-minutes. see (14:25:10)

Hmmmmm.... Jonathan left to make a phone call.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:43:01 PM
Hey Jane! ... (14:37:28) ... that would put the objective right back at 545.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:40:24 PM
Good observation/comment James (14:35:58), but a key stock if the BTK.X is going to get above its converging 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMA. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  2:37:28 PM
Phone call here- back in a few minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:37:23 PM
That reverse H&S remains a possibility on the OEX's five-minute chart. The neckline currently looks to be at about 542.15.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:35:58 PM
It's been a bullish couple of days for Biotech giant AMGN who has broken through the top of its descending channel and overhead resistance at $55.00 and its simple 50-dma. Don't be too bullish though, shares still have plenty of overhead congestion.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:31:43 PM
Dow-component American Express (AXP) broke support at its simple 200-dma yesterday and we're seeing a little bit of follow through today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:30:54 PM
All the European markets we commonly watch closed lower today. The FTSE 100 closed lower by 31.90 points or 0.73%, at 4,340.70. We're not the only ones suffering through dull markets--the FTSE mostly traded in a 20-point range for the day. The CAC 40 closed lower by 38.20 points or 1.05%, at 3,610.55. It declined through most of the day except for one bump higher when our markets were trying to climb, too. The DAX closed lower by 51.65 points or 1.32%, at 3,847.19. Like the CAC 40, it mostly declined all day except for that one brief period when it tried to climb, never reaching the flat-line level.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:26:08 PM
The breakdown under the $11.00 level in ORCL appears to be sticking this time but the stock has support at the $10.65 level where it bounced twice last March.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:25:10 PM
Taser (TASR) $39.99 ... updated intra-day chart. Thoughts regarding option market maker activity. Link

The MAIN reason I closed out bearish day trade prior to target, is I wasn't certain (I'm still not) that market maker doesn't turn into BIG buyer of the underlying, should he be selling the the July $40 puts right now.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:22:04 PM
Oil conglomerate ChevronTexaco (CVX) has broken through resistance at the $95.00 level to hit new all-time highs since its merger almost three years ago. Bulls can probably target a move to the $100 level. The P&F chart has produced a new spread triple-top breakout buy signal with a $108 target. Earnings are expected on July 30th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:21:24 PM
The SOX never was able to surmount the central Keltner channel resistance on the five-minute chart. As I type, it's in the lower half of the Keltner channels, the bearish half, but resistance and support look about equally weighted between 417.72 and 424.65.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:18:52 PM
Dow-component and insurance stock AIG is slipping toward important support near $68.70. However, this time support will be bolstered somewhat by the simple 200-dma at $68.21. A breakdown below these levels would appear to break the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern with a $60-59 price target. Earnings are expected on July 22nd.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  2:17:41 PM
Trying to think like one of da-boyz, perhaps another dip to lower descending wedge support on the 30 minute chart to fake everyone out before the upside break? Link The uncertainty is reflected in the declining 300 min stochastic tops against the rising bottoms- a stochastic pennant, if you will.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:14:20 PM
TASR Option Chain at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  2:11:20 PM
The FBI has sent a new bulletin to law enforcement agencies warning that Al Qaeda could try and launch attacks at our nation's energy infrastructure (i.e. oil refineries, oil tankers, power plants)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  2:08:56 PM
I was just about to say that the OEX could still be forming a right shoulder for the possible reverse H&S on its five-minute chart when the OEX began dropping again. It still hasn't dropped below the possible right-shoulder level, but it will if it continues to drop too much further.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  2:07:55 PM
The short cycle QQQ Link shows pretty clean symmetry on the pattern of higher lows and over the past 2 days could be building a sloppy reverse h&s, neckline between 35.45-.50. Another test of that level would at least look like a rising triangle. The lack of a high volume-terminal daily cycle selling spike is troubling for these bullish thoughts, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  2:05:55 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $39.99 +0.6% .... just off session low of $39.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:56:55 PM
We have overlapping candles here on the 100 tick QQQ chart with an uptick in volume- looks like the bots are fighting amongst themselves over tenths of a cent. QQQ continues to hold the 7200-tick SMA. Gold and silver are slightly lower, with HUI now fractionally negative and XAU down to a .48% loss. The short cycle oscillators are mostly chopped up now, but the short cycle TRIX is nearing levels from which bounces have launched on two other occasions today- might be happening as I type. Short cycle channel resistance is 35.44, 30 min resistance up to 35.63. Unfortunately, there's still no indication of an imbalance worth fading on the timeframes I follow- this is just chop, but it's happening at a higher low than earlier today and that bullish 30 min candle setup is still on the table.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  1:52:52 PM
H&S's. Reverse H&S's. I dread days when we start seeing competing formations set up across different time interval charts, because I know that's the visual representation of an ongoing battle between bears and bulls, and that it means that trading may continue to be choppy until the bulls and bears finish their battle. There's the potential H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, one that may not be completely trustworthy because it's forming within a consolidation zone and not as a topping formation, and now there's a possible reverse H&S again on the five-minute chart, with the head at today's low. The OEX needs to steady soon, however, or it will have breached the right-shoulder level. By the way, this morning's OEX low was within a point of the 200-ema at 538.29.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:43:29 PM
QQQ broke briefly below the rising 7200-tick SMA and is now hugging the line at 35.33. All of the gains since noon have now been round-tripped.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  1:38:32 PM
Sell Program Premium

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  1:34:52 PM
Reuters is reporting that over 60,000 German employees walked out on Thursday to protest plans to make its Mercedes unit work longer hours. The move is party of DCX's plan to cut $618 million in personnel costs.

Reuters article goes on to say DCX is trying to copy the success at Siemens (SI) last month who managed to raise the work week at two German plants from 35 hours to 40 hours a week without an increase in pay.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  1:30:55 PM
Bearish day trade close out alert for TASR short at $40.12 here.

 
 
  Jane Fox   7/15/200,  1:28:23 PM
Dateline WSJ In an unexpected move, Southwest Airlines Chief Executive James F. Parker resigned for "personal reasons" after just three years on the job.

The company named 49-year-old Chief Financial Officer Gary Kelly to succeed Mr. Parker as CEO, vice chairman, and a board member.

The abrupt change in management came as Southwest Airlines said earnings fell 54% in the second quarter, though the low-cost airline retained its rare profitable status in a struggling industry that has been plagued by bankruptcies.

Mr. Parker, 57, had been with the company for 18 years, much of that as the corporate attorney. He was named CEO in June of 2001.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  1:24:17 PM
The BIX is trying to use its 30-dma as a springboard to get back over the 350 level, but it hasn't managed to do so. So far, this is still just a lot of moving around within the recent consolidation pattern for the BIX, too. That's echoed by the flattening MACD and RSI. The BIX needs to get some upside traction going, however, as the 21(3)3 stochastics threaten to roll. They're nowhere near a bearish kiss with only the suggestion of a hook down, but there is that suggestion.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:17:48 PM
Looks like there's volume behind this sell candle on QQQ. 7200-tick SMA is at 35.30 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  1:17:19 PM
Day trade lower bearish stop alert for the UNDERLYING TASR $40.45 +1.7% short.

Lower stop to $41.10 from $41.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:15:58 PM
HOUSTON - Enron Corp. received court approval Thursday to emerge from one of the most expensive bankruptcies in history. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Arthur Gonzalez in New York signed off on Enron's plan to exit Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with no notable adjustments.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  1:07:54 PM
The OEX faces Keltner resistance at its current level, up to 542.92. The 15-minute chart shows a potential H&S-ish formation complete with bearish divergence as the head was formed, but that formation began setting up in the middle of the consolidation zone rather than as a topping formation, so I stay skeptical of such formations.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  1:06:50 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:04:38 PM
GE to a session high here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:04:01 PM
And, for bonds, TNX failed to break 4.5% again, currently up .7 bps at 4.491%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:03:30 PM
Gold and silver have settled into a coma as well, gold -.80 at 404.30 and silver +.046 at 6.652. HUI is up .14% and XAU is down .12%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  1:02:39 PM
The short cycle upphase for QQQ is still in progress, but it's now sporting small bearish divergences on the short cycle Macd histogram and wavelet oscillators. The 30 min channels are truing to pull up, but it's going to take a quick, strong ride to the upper channel resistance at 35.55 to get an upphase started. So long as that doesn't occur, we should get a retest of 35.25 and possibly to the channel bottom at 35.05. Short cycle bulls are running out of time to make it happen on this go-round.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  1:00:57 PM
Anyone care to place bets on where Magna Intl (MGA) may be headed next?

I've removed all the oscillators, indicators and moving averages and given you just a bar chart. FYI: earnings should be early August. Chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  1:00:07 PM
The SOX is still hesitating at the Keltner resistance near the current level. As long as it stays above 422.86 and preferably above 423.90, it still has a chance of reaching toward 431.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:58:58 PM
QQQ $35.42 +0.58% .... intra-day resistance in my opinion should be key/firm at DAILY R1 $35.54, and that conventional 61.8% retracement of $35.55.

Somebody's selling the bid in the July $35 calls at $0.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:53:57 PM
2 other buy program premiums at 12:42 and 12:46 PM

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:51:17 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $34.93 +1.27% .... July "max pain" is $35.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:48:37 PM
NASDAQ-100 Volatility (VXN.X) 21.21 -1.98% .... Still within yesterday's range.

QQQ $35.45.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:48:21 PM
Yellow Roadway (YELL) is breaking out over resistance at $40.50 to hit new all-time highs. Its MACD is close to producing a new buy signal. The stock moves a bit slowly to play calls but it might work as a covered call play. Watch out for earnings on July 22nd.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:48:02 PM
Session highs for QQQ and ES, NQ futures here. 35.55 is the last ditch for intraday bears here- 30 and 60 min channels converging there. A failure to break back below 35.44 will set up an upside bull wedge breakout as discussed earlier.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:43:55 PM
Buy Program Premium

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:42:38 PM
QQQ just spiked off a session high and is doji-ing back down to the prior range as I type.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/15/200,  12:41:15 PM
Earnings today after the close:

IBM est +1.12 (called analyst estimates "reasonable" mid quarter)
LSS est +0.99
LEXR est -0.19
NFLX est +0.13
PMCS est +0.07
RMBS est +0.06

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  12:40:20 PM
The SOX is hitting Keltner resistance (5-minute chart) at 423.92-424.32. A sustained break through this resistance level suggests a climb toward 431.02, although the 15-minute chart gives a slightly higher target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:39:01 PM
Taser July $40 puts did you see that volume rattle off on that dip? Options market makers got control of this thing today. There's NO REASON to be BUYING July $40 puts with 1 day left to expiration. I think market makers trying to influence trade.

I think options market trying to short stock, press to $40, but offsetting his/her short and selling the puts.

Market maker could have to turn and cover underlying on break of today's high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:37:09 PM
QQQ ran right up to the brink and then stalled 2 cents below the previous session high. The short cycles are not maxxed out, however, with only a wavelet pullback due so far. There's still room to run, particularly if the wavelet pullback due now bottoms at a higher low above 35.25. The 30 and 60 min channels have advanced slightly higher by 5 cents at both the upper and lower ends of the range, and a break above the session high will target 35.54 as channel resistance here. Those bullish-d's and the bull wedge highlighted earlier are still on the table, but we need to see a high volume break above the day range to suggest that it wants to launch- so far, there's been no indication of that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  12:37:01 PM
Does anybody else wish the SPX would just get it over with and dip to the 200-sma? Unfortunately, though, I'm afraid that it would just consolidate there, too!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:35:37 PM
Taser Intl (TASR) $40.35 +1.4% ... intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals. Showing lower 5-mrt. Link

Also "max pain" as well as our broader fitted retracement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  12:33:51 PM
After breaking out of the 15-minute Keltner channels to the downside yesterday, the SOX's smallest Keltner channel now turns up within the larger Keltner channels. Keltner support is trying to firm up from 519.30-520.30. If the SOX can maintain levels above that, and preferably above 421.57, it may have a chance at aiming for the mid-channel level, currently at 433.73. However, that's a risky assumption, because if you step away from Keltner channels and just look at pure price action, you see that to reach that mid-channel level, the SOX will be moving up through the gap left yesterday morning when the SOX opened lower, and gap resistance can be a tricky thing.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:25:10 PM
Alberto Culver (ACV) charges to another new all-time high above the $50.00 mark after Bank of America upgrades the stock from "neutral" to a "buy" and raised their price target to $56. Volume is already double the average and its MACD has just produced a new buy signal. Earnings are expected on July 22nd. ACV is currently up 4.2% at $50.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  12:22:39 PM
As of 30 minutes ago, crude futures had broken above the top resistance of the possible bull flag at the top of its climb yesterday, but had come back immediately to retest the former resistance of that bull flag, to see if it will hold as support. Market commentators around the globe have been focusing on higher crude prices. While it should be just one indicator you watch, do keep it on the radar screen.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:19:47 PM
The Internet stocks are going nowhere. Most of them fell sharply on July 8th after YHOO's earnings announcement while the Chinese Internets fell sharply on July 7th after the NTES revenue warning. Since then the half dozen or so most popular issues have all traded sideways. Wonder what they're waiting for? Maybe EBAY's earnings on July 21st.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:19:44 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:15:14 PM
Plexus Corp (PLXS) falls again, now down 3.77% to $10.46, after JP Morgan cut the stock to an "under weight". The stock is very oversold and due for a bounce, which it tried to produce yesterday but failed at the simple 10-dma. It will be interesting to see if the $10.00 mark offers any support. Currently its P&F chart points to a $7.50 target. Earnings are expected on July 21st.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  12:14:47 PM
The buy program pushed the OEX above the top trendline of the possible descending wedge on its five-minute chart. If it can stay above 540.28 and preferably above 541.10, where next Keltner resistance lines up, the smallest Keltner channel will then point up toward resistance that's trying to converge somewhere in the 542.18-542.52 region.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:14:22 PM
Bullish divergences with potential bullish descending wedge on 30 min QQQ: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:13:39 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 562.46 +0.48% .... edges to session high.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:10:13 PM
FLIR Systems (FLIR) shot higher this morning and hit new all-time highs over resistance at $56.00 after announcing a deal worth $7.4 million from defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC). FLIR is up 2.98% but slipping from its highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:08:04 PM
12:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:08:00 PM
A bankruptcy court has given its approval to Enron's restructuring plan through its Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Of the $63 billion in claims against the company there is only $12 billion available to be distributed among creditors. new stock symbol is: ENRNQ

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:07:33 PM
QQQ 4 cents away from session high, TNX .03 bps away from 4.5% resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:05:26 PM
Philly Fed 36.1. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:04:19 PM
Session low for ZN bond futures here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:03:33 PM
Bonds plunged on that QQQ buy program, dropping .20 in a few seconds on the ZN ten year future. TNX is up to 4.494% here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  12:02:48 PM
Buy Program Premium ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  12:01:41 PM
30 min channel resistance is unchanged at 35.46, just below 60 min resistance at 35.50. The current rise was on the largest 100-tick volume of the day for QQQ, 2.5M shares according to my chart.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  12:00:41 PM
Over the last couple of years NetIQ (NTIQ) has made a habit of falling sharply toward the $10.00 level and then rebounding back in the next four to six weeks. The month of July has been a tough one for NTIQ as the stock has fallen from $13.20 to $10.25 on strong volume. Yet right on schedule it is producing an oversold bounce from the $10 region, this time boosted by an upgrade to a "buy". The stock is optionable and earnings are expected on July 27th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  11:59:16 AM
The OEX pattern since late yesterday afternoon has now settled into a possible bullish descending wedge with top resistance at about 540.50. It's possible to draw different patterns, choosing one that fits your bias. My bias is toward choppy trading conditions, perhaps with a dart down to the OEX's 200-ema, followed by a bounce, or perhaps a bounce first, but I'm still not convinced that any bounce would go much of anywhere.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:58:11 AM
Bonds remain flat just below unchanged, with TNX holding just below 4.5% resistance at 4.489%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  11:56:00 AM
Taser Intl. TASR $40.85 +2.76% ... little spike in volume on this move above mid-morning congestion of $40.75. Session low no better than $40.21 (RED #2 $40.28).

Most active options are July $40 put and $40 call.

In this morning's pre-market, TASR traded as high as $42.15, pretty close to our fitted 38.2% of $42.09, but opened at $41.01.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  11:50:33 AM
Keltner resistance now converges near OEX 540.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:50:07 AM
The volume spike to which Keene refers was relatively muted in QQQ and non-existent on NQ, with QQQ returning yet again to the pennant apex. It's not too early for the opex tractor beam to begin pinning prices, and 35.25 is beginning to flash regularly on my quote screen.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  11:47:17 AM
We have been triggered on the new call play in HUG with its early morning breakout to $60.71, hitting new all-time highs, before slipping back under the $60 mark.

 
 
  James Brown   7/15/200,  11:45:08 AM
Traders can keep an eye on OI call play ATK. The defense stock has slipped back toward the $65.00 level and bounced. Not only is the $65.00 mark round-number support/resistance but it also happens to be the 38.2% retracement for its current two-week rally. This could be an entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:39:22 AM
Seeing the Naz/QQQ as the stronger market- that's a change of pace from recent sessions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:38:39 AM
Session low printing here for the Dow futures.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:32:26 AM
This drift back into the apex by QQQ is the reason why chart pattern breakouts/breakdowns need to be confirmed by volume. The absence of an expansion on the lower line break was the tipoff for the possibility of this drift back up to the prior range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  11:32:19 AM
Unless the OEX can maintain values above 540.66 and preferably above 541.23, then 539.45 looks possible. Support is trying to firm up under the OEX's current position but it can only do that if the OEX pauses a while. If that support can firm up and then the OEX bounce quickly enough, there's no converging Keltner resistance nearby--the lines are scattered. That allows for a quick zoom upward (within the consolidation zone, however), but of course doesn't promise it. This is evidence from the 5-minute chart. The 15-minute chart suggests again that the 542-543 area might present the strongest nearby resistance, but the lines are somewhat scattered within that range, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:28:35 AM
The lower support line is breaking here, with the wavelet oscillator rolling over from a lower high. I'd love to see some volume on the break, but so far it's just a drift through support, not a big break. The apex is between 35.23 and 35.27.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:27:15 AM
Test of the lower rising pennant support line here- waiting for volume confirmation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:24:02 AM
Flat pennant here for QQQ: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:20:46 AM
Here's the famous soccer ball auction: Link Looks like that alleged 12M bid was bogus.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  11:20:39 AM
When the OEX headed down to test its 200-dma, I expected several days of consolidation around that important average and warned that we might see the kind of behavior that we saw in May. Yet, I also suggested that the consolidation period around that moving average might be shorter than the period in May. The OEX better hurry up and decide direction, or it's going to equal May's performance after all. I wanted to remind readers, as I have at other times, though, of the 200-ema just below at 538.29, and suggest that those in bearish plays make plans for how they'll handle a test of that average, if one should come. Watch the SPX in relationship to its 200-sma, too, with that average at 1103.21, and perhaps the point at which markets might at least attempt a bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  11:07:11 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:06:07 AM
Lettuce hope that this isn't the op-ex Friday tractor beam taking hold.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  11:02:54 AM
QQQ continues to trade both sides of the 7200-tick SMA, with the short cycle channel flat in the middle of the 30 and 60 min channels. My system is based on fading imbalances within these channels, and so when the markets chop around in a flat range, there's nothing but equilibrium to stare at. A move from here to 35.03 should set up a bounce, while a rise to 35.50 from here to 35.44 should fail. A break above 35.44, however, would set off that bullish divergence discussed earlier, and could get explosive to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:57:59 AM
The BIX has turned down below 350 again today, at 348.75 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:47:05 AM
So far, the OEX has had a pattern of not making it up to next Keltner resistance before it pulls back again. That, coupled with Jane's observations about TRIN and the advdec line, corroborate the feeling that any bounces could be countertrend ones.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:42:10 AM
The OEX faces next Keltner resistance at just above 542. This is on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:33:57 AM
10:32am U.S. NATGAS STKS UP 108 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:32:38 AM
Same here, Jim re: your 10:29:37 post. That bullish divergence on the 30 min chart is very enticing, but the price won't move low enough to signal a likely bottom or high enough to signal a likely breakout.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:29:19 AM
The SOX is trying to steady at the bottom of yesterday's price range, but so far it's steadying consists of a test of the midline of its descending regression channel from the underside. Studying a 15-minute chart, however, I note that the SOX had been showing bullish price/oscillator divergence all day yesterday. So far, it hasn't been able to deliver on that bullish divergence, and it needs to do so before those oscillators cycle all the way up and turn down again. That wouldn't be bullish at all.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:26:11 AM
QQQ retesting the 7200-tick SMA from below here. A move to 30 min channel support should be a buy if we get it, but the bounce off 35.10 was met with huge volume, the largest 100-tick volume of the day by nearly double, and 7200 tick resistance is breaking here as I type. A move above the session high 17 cents above here should confirm that the 30 min bullish divergence is in play, making it likely that we've just seen the day low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:22:15 AM
The OEX dropped low enough that I think we can stop watching that potential reverse H&S. The OEX is just reaching the 539.75-540.50 support zone lately, but the five-minute MACD has just made a bearish cross from below signal. I'd vote for at least a bounce attempt or a steadying attempt, since MACD is so slow to move anyway, but I'm not how far that bounce would carry, if one occurs. The bulls were not able to carry through on the bullishness implied by the building reverse H&S, and that's not a good sign.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  10:22:04 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Does not included the day trade TASR short. Updated stop for the TASR covered call.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:16:11 AM
Bullish divergence in the 30 min Naz futures, also applicable to QQQ. Link If the channel supports at 35.03 hold, the next bounce could be a doozy to the upside. A break below 35 that holds for longer than 45 mins or so should reverse that bullish divergence if it occurs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  10:14:04 AM
10:10 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:13:09 AM
The Nasdaq is dropping toward yesterday's low, and that's not what bulls hope to see if they want to see a follow-through on yesterday's potential reversal signal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:12:01 AM
Session lows across the board here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  10:10:07 AM
The OEX has not made it up the zone that the Keltners suggested it might. Bears might be aware, however, that there's a possible reverse H&S building on the five-minute chart. If the OEX drops much below 541, that formation will be negated. The neckline appears to be an ascending one, with one version currently crossing at just above 543, so the test of that neckline would be concurrent with the test of the 543-543.50-ish Keltner resistance, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  10:06:50 AM
QQQ chewing away at 7200-tick SMA here, just breaking below as I type. 30 and 60 min cycle support remain 35.03, but the short cycle downphase is just getting started and there's a good chance that these longer intraday cycles will turn down here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:59:16 AM
Session high for GE here, +.42%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  9:56:40 AM
Covered call profit stop alert .... Place a profit stop on the TASR July $40 calls (QURGH) and close out these calls should the UNDERLYING stock trade $41.50.

At the open, these calls traded a session high of $1.85, so an option stop would be $1.90 or so. Current bid/ask = $1.25 x $1.35

See 09:52:39 also.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:56:26 AM
The Nasdaq fulfilled one condition of a hoped-for reversal by opening above yesterday's opening and closing price. Now it has to climb higher instead of drifting lower as it's doing now. The 200-ema lurks just overhead, however, at 1934.45, with the Nasdaq showing some trading patterns in relationship to that average over the last few days, showing its possible relevance. That possible resistance and other resistance mark the reasons why I'm not confident about the sustainability of any possible bounce on the Nasdaq, if one should occur.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:54:43 AM
Look for first support on this decline at 35.25, the 7200-tick SMA for QQQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:54:01 AM
An 8.25B overnight repo has been announced for a 3.25B net add against the 5B expiring.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  9:52:39 AM
Day trade short alert for Taser Intl. (TASR) $40.66 here, stop $41.40, target $40.01.

I think stock pinned to $40 into tomorrow's expiration. More to follow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:52:38 AM
I'm hearing that the soccer ball that was fouled into the stands is up to $12M on Ebay and that Ebay officials are saying that the bids are genuine. Amazing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:51:34 AM
The 30 min channel is turning up here, with resistance still at 35.50 but support rising to 35.04. The short cycle oscillators are very toppy, almost maxxed out, and so 35.50 continues to look like stiff resistance. Awaiting the Fed's repo announcement to see what the bias there is going to be.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:47:49 AM
Bonds are rising with eauities and metals now, with GE and silver futures at a session high, TNX down .4 bps from its previous gain to 4.48% (4.5% holds again), and QQQ just hiting a session high of 35.44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:47:13 AM
The TRAN has climbed just above the 30-dma again, but hasn't yet topped 3100. It is at 3090.29 as I type. I'm actually surprised that the TRAN hasn't been harder hit by the rise in crude prices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:42:11 AM
As I type, Keltner resistance in the 542.65-ish level looks stronger than support, at least down to 541.09, where it looks strong again, but the smallest Keltner channel remains pointed right above 543.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:38:53 AM
30 and 60 min Keltner resistance are converging at 35.49 QQQ. By that level, the short cycle upphase should be maxxing out on it's upphase, and so that looks to be stiff resistance from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:37:41 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 542.01 to 542.81.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:36:13 AM
Session high for silver here at 6.616. Gold is trading 403.40, with HUI down .64% at 194.48 and XAU down .76% at 89.34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/15/200,  9:34:45 AM
Taser Intl. TASR $41.23 +3.7% ... announced it received 3 orders from metropolitan police departments. Chattanooga PD ordered 200 TASER X26 weapons, Lubbock PD ordered 221 TASER X26 weapons, and Las Vegas PD ordered 490 TASER X26 weapons.

"What happens in Las Vegas, can get stunned in Las Vegas."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:34:17 AM
The OEX does bounce in early trading. It's headed toward the 543.20-543.62 zone, depending on how it behaves during the first typical retracement of the day, due to begin in 6-7 minutes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:29:59 AM
Rumor confirmed:

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC oil producers were set on Thursday to cancel next week's ministerial meeting, confident they can simply implement a planned increase in supply quotas without endangering oil's price boom.

"The meeting has been canceled after consensus among member states," a senior OPEC official told Reuters by telephone. OPEC's Vienna secretariat was expected to confirm the decision later on Thursday, an OPEC spokesman said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will enforce a planned 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in formal quotas from August 1, the spokesman added. OPEC's next scheduled meeting is on September 15.

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:23:45 AM
Bonds remain flat, currently down slightly with TNX up .9 bps at 4.493%. 4.5% remains range resistance from the past 2 weeks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:22:54 AM
Futures have pulled back a touch and gold is down 2.60 to 402.5 on the 9:15 data.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:22:18 AM
9:14am U.S. JUNE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DOWN 0.3% VS FORECAST 0.0%

9:14am U.S. JUNE CAPACITY UTILIZATION 77.2% VS FORECAST 77.7%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:15:46 AM
For what it's worth, Linda, I can't find any wire stories or others confirming the rumor. Will check again in an hour.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:14:28 AM
Thanks, Jonathan, on behalf of all of us! (See Jonathan's 9:05 post.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:12:08 AM
As an addition to my 9:01 post, I wanted to add that although the Keltner channels and this morning's bump up in the futures after 8:30 suggests that the OEX could rise to test 543.20-543.54, review my 00:08:40 post for more information on my outlook. A suggestion that the OEX might climb up to test that resistance doesn't mean that I'm certain what could happen after such a test, as that test would just move the OEX up into the consolidation zone again, that choppy, whippy, stop-bulls-and-bear-alike consolidation zone. Don't read my thought that the OEX could bounce up to test that resistance as a wholehearted endorsement of long plays right now. My outlook is that we're seeing two aspects of a matched battle between bulls and bears: either deadly dull go-nowhere trading or trading when one side momentarily gains the advantage and tugs markets one direction, only to have the other side dig in their heels and jerk the markets back the other direction. This would be a good time to study some aspect of technical trading that you haven't tried before or attempt some paper trades. If you're going to be trading, make sure that you do it with your lotto funds and not your need-to-keep ones.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:05:46 AM
Linda, I'm seeing trader chatter / unconfirmed rumor about the 7/21 OPEC cancellation as well- I'm trying to find it in a mainstream source.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  9:02:08 AM
The fed has announced a 14 day repo of 6B which nets out the expiring 6B 14 day repo from 2 weeks ago. We await the 10AM announcement regarding the 5B in expiring overnights.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  9:01:29 AM
Futures were not able to hold onto their gains overnight, especially amid disappointment over Nokia's earnings outlook, but the 8:30 economic numbers plumped them up again. In addition, efforts are being made to temper the gains in crude prices and lessen the pressure from that factor. As I had suspected might happen after yesterday's rise in crude price, reassurances have begun to flow. Kuwait's oil minister has reportedly offered reassurances that $28-35/barrel would be an optimal price and that Kuwait has an additional 100,000 bpd production capacity. OPEC has a meeting next Wednesday to assess recent developments, but there's been some speculation that the meeting will be canceled since an agreement for an output increase has already been made. Venezuela's oil minister's reported statements seem to run somewhat counter to those reassurances, however, as that minister seems concerned about a collapse in oil prices, and might want to eliminate the planned 500,000 bpd output increase that had been planned to begin in August. Keep an eye on crude prices today: cl04u on QCharts. For now, however, the bounce scenario I outlined in my 00:08:40 post, up to test 543.20-543.54, may be possible. One fly in the ointment might be the claims number, up 40,000.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:53:07 AM
Next data is due at 9:15AM with June industrial production, est. +.1% and capacity utilization, est. 77.7%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:51:48 AM
Naz futures and QQQ have caught up to their peers, with QQQ up 15 cents to 35.34, +.43% and NQ up 5.5 to 1424.5, +.39%. The advance has slowed but is not reversing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:36:09 AM
Gold is down 1.10 at 404 here as equities hold their gains. QQQ is up to 35.30, yesterday's bounce resistance, with short cycle channel resistance up to 35.36 and 30 min resistance at 35.43. The 30 min channels have flattened, no longer declining here. If bulls can hold QQQ in the green, there's a good chance that the 30 min downphase will abort early.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:34:41 AM
8:34am DOLLAR HOLDS NEAR UNCHANGED MARK AFTER MIXED U.S. DATA

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:33:39 AM
Session highs for Dow and SPX futs here at 1113.5 and 10211.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:32:41 AM
Futures are up slightly into positive territory on the news, with QQQ up 6 cents to 35.25, gold up .40 to 405.5.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:31:28 AM
8:29am U.S. JUNE PPI FALLS 0.3% VS. EXPECTED 0.2% GAIN

8:29am U.S. JUNE CORE PPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE INDEX 36.5 VS 29.9 IN JUNE

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 40,000 TO 340,000

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 3,250 TO 339,000

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 112,000 TO 2.91MLN

8:30am U.S. MAY BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.4%

8:30am U.S. JUNE PPI ENERGY PRICES FALL 1.6%

8:30am U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 56.0 VS 52.1

8:30am U.S. MAY INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO REMAINS AT RECORD LOW

8:30am U.S. JUNE CRUDE PPI UP 1.6%, CORE CRUDE DOWN 0.5%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:29:30 AM
If QQQ can break above yesterday's high, there's a decent chance that the daily cycle downphase will stall out, potentially cancelling those lower targets. Data due in 1 minute.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:19:18 AM
For those trading afterhours or trying to get a read on the likely direction of the expected 8:30 volatility, the daily Naz futures remain in what has proven to be a very strong daily cycle downphase since the end of June window-dressing high. Yesterday afternoon closed out with the QQQ and Naz futures bouncing to the top of the descending 30 minute cycle range, which cycle remains in a downphase. Against those synchronous daily and 30 min cycle downphases is a short cycle upphase that began just before 3PM and is still in progress but so far weak. The anticipated net picture gives us an overall downward bias, within which a corrective short cycle bounce is stalling the decline.

I noted earlier this week that the easy part of the decline has been seen. Looking at the daily chart, the day ranges have been shrinking with each successive lower candle. One of these candles is going to reverse back up, and I'll be looking for what I expect to be a doji hammer on higher than average volume to mark the reversal in the daily cycle. As I've repeated ad nauseum in the futures monitor, we often see an explosive terminal push in the direction of a cycle to complete that cycle- thus the high volume doji reversal. I don't think that the markets are going to crash through the daily cycle bottom, and for QQQ I see likely support at 34.75 and 34.10, assuming that the 35 level breaks. However, rather than aim for targets to catch the falling knife, I would wait for that terminal selling spree, hopefully targeting either of those levels. With oscillators, the turn is always in the rearview mirror, and the daily cycle upphase should be good for a few weeks of upside, but those are the levels from which I expect to see daily support assert itself.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/15/200,  8:08:43 AM
Equity prices are flat from yesterday's close, a welcome reprieve from the afterhours fireworks. ES is trading 1111.25, NQ down 1 at 1418, YM down 1 at 10195 and QQQ down 1 cent at 35.18. Gold is down 30 cents at 404.80, silver down .03 cents at 6.575 and bonds are up .03 at 110.4375. Awaiting the 8:30 release of business inventories for May, est. +.6%, PPI for June, est. +.2%, core PPI est. +.2%, initial claims for the week ending 07/09 est. 340K and the Empire State Index, est. 28.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/15/200,  6:56:13 AM
Good morning. With the dollar gaining against the yen, exporters headed higher at the Nikkei's open, gapping the Nikkei higher by almost 60 points Thursday. Soon after opening, however, the Nikkei dropped below the flat-line level, pressured by tech weakness, where it stayed until the last 45 minutes of trading, when the Nikkei headed higher in a nearly vertical climb. The Nikkei closed higher by 52.49 points or 0.46%, at 11,409.14. Banks had been gaining in recent sessions, but dropped in Thursday's trading, except for Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group, soaring again Thursday, gaining 11.7%. As had happened in the U.S. Wednesday, higher crude prices also pressured equities, but Honda did post modest gains.

Other Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.44%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.52%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped only 0.18%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was almost flat, up 0.06%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.27%.

European bourses mostly trade lower this morning, with rising crude prices mentioned as one factor in the weakness. Those rising crude prices helped European oil majors while it pressured airlines and other sectors sensitive to the cost of crude. Nokia's earnings outlook disappointed, also pressuring European markets. Other phone makers and suppliers turned lower, too. Ahead of Nokia's report UBS downgraded Nokia supplier Epcos all the way to a reduce rating from a former buy rating. In other stock-specific news, Bayer pled guilty to antitrust charges in the U.S. and was assessed a $66 million fine, with that company's stock easing 0.6%. The charges applied to its rubber chemicals unit. Billionaire Philip Green has withdrawn his bid for Marks & Spencer after being rebuffed three times, leaving Deutsche Bank in the lurch. The bank had recently increased its stake in Marks & Spencer. Deutsche Bank was lower in Thursday's trading, although it's unclear whether the two events are connected.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades lower by 21.40 points or 0.49%, at 4,351.20. The CAC 40 trades lower by 25.31 points or 0.69%, at 3,623.44. The DAX trades lower by 34.24 points or 0.88%, at 3,864.60.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/14/200,  12:08:40 AM
The OEX, along with several other indices, sits just above the midline support of its descending regression channel. Like many of those other indices, yesterday's trading spanned the entire range or most of the range of the recent consolidation pattern, testing the low, later suggesting an upside breakout that was soon reversed, and then heading lower again. I've mentioned several times now the 11 days that the OEX spent testing its 200-sma in May and volatile trading pattern it established while testing that average, seeming to break out only to reverse, building an expanding consolidation pattern. By the time the final breakout occurred, it was difficult to trust that it was happening. That may be true this time, too.

As I mentioned in last night's wrap, Thursday will see so many economic reports and earnings reports that it's going to be difficult to sift through them all, but special attention should probably focus on crude futures, spiking above $41.00 Wednesday, and the Nasdaq, printing a possible reversal signal Wednesday. Futures were up after hours, but not able to build on the gains as of this writing (midnight EST). If they should drop during the overnight session or in response to the 8:30 reports tomorrow morning, special attention should focus on the SPX if it should approach its 200-sma. OEX traders should also note the possible support of the OEX's 200-ema at 538.27 if the markets should decline Thursday morning.

What do Keltners say? In the absence of any other developments overnight, an impossibility with so many reports and earnings due, the 15-minute Kelners were suggesting a likely bounce up toward 543.20-543.54 tomorrow morning, although it was possible that 542.06 resistance would hold. Strongest resistance appeared at that 543.20-543.54 band, however. The rest depends on how the OEX reacted to that resistance, of course. A push above that resistance--either fast enough or far enough to break clear of the Keltner resistance, suggests a move up to 545.68, with a move up to 549.12 eventually possible, but not as likely as a move to the 546 area. That would fit with the idea of a bounce, but one possibly limited by the usual tendency to pin the markets to certain numbers Thursday afternoon and by the demonstrated resistance all markets will be facing as they move up through recent consolidation zones.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   7/14/200,  11:50:24 PM
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