Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  6:29:14 PM
I've got to try and get my charts working by tomorrow morning. Not that its going to make the markets do what I want, but makes for a tough day when you're punching up symbols on individual basis each hour.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  6:24:18 PM
Thanks Keene for your 17:04:16 post. I'm not a candlesticker, but thought the trader's observations might be meaningful to those that are.

Is there such a thing as a "flaming torch" pattern?

Oh... did you get my uptick in the QQQ last night? NO "grin" attached to that one.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  6:17:47 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Keene Little   7/21/200,  5:04:16 PM
Actually Jeff, not to be persnickety about candlestick patterns (re: your 16:04 post), and I don't have my book in front of me to confirm, but a tweezer bottom, which is bullish, is a long red candle at the bottom followed by a nearly identical long green candle the next day. That's a strong reversal signal. Same but opposite of course at the top of a trend.

So the daily candlestick pattern on the Cubes looks more like an outside down reversal day with that big red candle today encompassing yesterday's smaller green candle. Normally this is a reversal signal but more so at the top of a trend. In its current place it looks more like a continuation pattern (down).

I know you're not a Chinese candlesticker ;-) so I thought I'd jump in on this one.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  5:01:13 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Note: High/low/close taken from www.stockcharts.com, and I haven't been able to get my QCharts working to be able to verify.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  4:05:48 PM
QQQ appears to have met the downside objective of the head and shoulders pattern discussed this morning. The 30 min cycle oscillators are maxxed out to the downside, almost a perfect mirror of how they left off yesterday, while the daily cycle buy signal did not undraw but is merely flattened now after yesterday's uptick. If it's going to bounce, this is the place- but if not, there's weak support at 34.35, then at 34.20 and strong support at 34. Below 34, the QQQ will be in a daily cycle trending move, something not seen on my charts since before March 2003.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  4:04:44 PM
QQQ candlesticker .... Jeff, I know you're not a candlestick follower, but today's low (34.50) and Monday's low (34.47)could be formation of a Tweezer bottom formation, which is bullish. Brian

I'd kill for a live chart, but here's a QQQ chart from StockCharts.com Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  4:02:00 PM
QQQ ... swing trade stop alert on the 1/2 bullish QQQ at $34.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  4:01:56 PM
The Dow and ES futures are doing their best to catch up to the NQ in a hurry, accelerating at the cash close.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:59:21 PM
Keltner support is diving along with price and is now at 532.65.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:54:20 PM
QQQ $34.54 .... The BULL in me really wanted to at least see the QQQ hold that $34.75 level. Here's the QQQ chart I posted yesterday's morning. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:53:57 PM
This move is happening so quickly that the Keltner lines are streaming down nearly vertically, trying to catch up to price action. It's difficult to tell where the "shouldn't sustain" values are with the steepness of the descent. On the 15-minute chart, however, it looks as if the OEX shouldn't sustain values above 537.16 to keep that channel pointed lower or 538.78, where it would turn up again. That's a long, long way away, however, to someone holding a successful position in OEX puts. Note that we're approaching a potential double-bottom level in the OEX, and getting close to the 530-533 zone that might be support, too. The descent should slow through here and this should be good for a possible bounce somewhere through here, which means bears should be assessing their risks if the OEX should bounce strongly. Doesn't necessarily mean that it's a good time for bulls to step in, though. Could be, but there's still that risk down to 530-533 before we even know if that support zone is going to hold. I sure wouldn't feel comfortable suggesting it for OEX traders as we approach the close.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:49:12 PM
QQQ just went by at $34.52 on CNBC ticker.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:46:07 PM
Session lows for Russell2K and Naz futures here... add ES and YM to the list as I type. I have no idea where QQQ's trading, as even my IB quotes are off now. But a close below yesterday's low will leave the Naz with a key outside downside reversal, and the daily cycle is aiming to leave off on a whipsaw to the downside, the first step of a trending move. That's a rare occurrence, and bodes very ill for the Nasdaq.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:45:43 PM
Because there's now been a breakout below lower Keltner support on the five-minute chart, I'm turning now to the 15-minute one, as a breakout below lower Keltner support on the five-minute one does not now give us any targets. On the 15-minute chart, lower support is now at 532.81 but moving lower.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:43:32 PM
OEX breakout, making 533 a possibility but perhaps not today.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:38:15 PM
The OEX is still trying to steady. That could change in a few minutes as traders decide whether to bail or buy the dip before the close.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:28:14 PM
There has not yet been a violation of lower Keltner support on the OEX's five-minute chart, and the 15-minute chart shows that the OEX keeps trying to bounce right back above Keltner support. It's violated it, but not in a significant way as yet on a 15-minute basis. Iffy situation with respect to whether 533 will be reached or whether the OEX will bounce first. Bears don't want to see the OEX sustain values above 537.13 or at least 537.81, as sustained values below the lowest of those will flatten the smallest channel and sustained values above the highest will turn it up again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:24:40 PM
Bonds have closed lower for the 2nd day in a row, with TNX up 3.9 bps to 4.487%. 4.5% is resistance above, followed by 4.64%, while support is at 4.4% and 4.32%.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:21:08 PM
Homebuilders are trading lower again as well with the DJUSHB index falling out of its recent one-week trading range and hitting new two-month lows.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:21:04 PM
Amazing weakness today. ES has just touched yesterday's low while YM still has 32 points to go. The 30 min cycle oscillators are now in bottoming territory, and the next move in that timeframe should be to the upside, but with no particularly violent "terminal" spike evident, there's no indication that this will be the low- short cycle oscillators are no use because they've been pinned for hours. A print above 1102 / 10120 / 1400 would likely generate the starting prints of a short cycle upphase, but we saw a similar signal abort 40 minutes ago.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:20:10 PM
The XAL airline index is producing a huge intraday bearish reversal with the index now down 3.2%.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:19:04 PM
The INX Internet index is down 3.8% and failing at its simple 10-dma and the 180 resistance level. The INX is back under its simple 200-dma as well. YHOO is down 3.5% and reversing at the $30 level. AMZN is down 5% and breaking support at its 100-dma and the $45 mark. EBAY is down 2.65% and breaking support at its 100-dma and trading back under the $80 level.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:17:30 PM
The GSO software index is down 1.8% and producing a dark cloud cover pattern.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:17:14 PM
The OEX is trying to steady at the next support suggested by the 15-minute chart rather than dipping all the way to support suggested by the 5-minute chart, now at 536.13. A sustained break below the 15-minute support, now at 536.65, would be a breakout of that level, and would suggest a possible drop down to next Keltner support on that chart at . . . you guessed it, 533. Has to be a sustained break or a quick and deep plunge, though, because otherwise the Keltner line just gets bulged out and will catapult prices back inside the channel. It's going to be tough for bears to make a decision about holding over tonight, unless the OEX does drop into that 530-533 range. Although there's a possibility of support down to 527, a drop into the 530-533 range raises the possibility of a consolidation at least, if not a bounce attempt. Have a plan in place in case that happens, such as selling partial positions, taking full profit and congratulating yourself, taking full profit and using only a part to roll into lower strikes, etc. The OEX is now near the bottom of the most recent consolidation zone, but below this, it's moving into May's consolidation zone, where the plunge might slow. Your choice.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:16:58 PM
The GHA hardware index is down 3.6% and failing at its 40-dma and the 240 region. The group is headed to new two-month lows. IBM is reversing earlier strength

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:15:42 PM
Eww... this is getting ugly. I'm seeing lots of bearish "dark cloud cover" candlestick patterns and failed rallies at resistance in stocks and sector-specific indices.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:14:32 PM
The DDX disk drive index is down 4.3% and back under the 100 level.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:12:31 PM
The intraday rally in OI put play PGR is failing (again).

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:11:33 PM
The action in OI put play GS is looking like a failed rally with the charge to $90.70 and its drop back to $88.56. Traders may want to use this action as a bearish entry point.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:10:03 PM
OI put play DISH is seeing an oversold bounce after its four-day losing streak. Look for a failed rally in the $28.50 region.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:09:02 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

Weakest of the session.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:08:53 PM
OI put play and biotech stock CEPH is down 2.28% after failing at its simple 10-dma for the third time in four sessions. Traders(bears) can be encouraged by the drop back through the $50 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:08:43 PM
The 30 min cycle downphase continues and shows no sign of bottoming yet. The buy signals from yesterday on the daily chart are beginning to turn down for what's shaping up to be a perfect whipsaw.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:07:31 PM
ZBRA is also seeing some profit taking with a 2.7% drop back under the $82 level. Traders can look for a bounce from the simple 50-dma near $81.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:07:22 PM
The OEX is dropping out of the descending regression channel that's been in place since about 10:00 this morning, suggesting that the selling is accelerating. Bears should have a plan in mind for how they'll deal with the lower Keltner channel support, now at about 536.22, if it should be reached. A breakout there could be valid, leading down to a test of 530-533, levels now suggested as next support on the daily chart, but risks shift onto bears' shoulders with such a breakout, too, as their positions are always vulnerable to a bounce. That daily chart suggests that bears don't want to see the OEX maintain (on a daily basis) levels above 540.35 if that 530-533 level is to be tested.

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  3:07:20 PM
SalesForce.com (CRM) is getting killed today, down nearly -$4

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:06:40 PM
We don't have to worry about closing our bullish play in SUN this afternoon ahead of its Thursday morning earnings report. We've been stopped out at $67.95. Estimates for tomorrow's earnings report are $2.30 per share.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:04:50 PM
We're seeing a similar reversal in shares of HUG, which hit new highs but is now slipping back towards support/resistance at $60.00.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:04:07 PM
The big reversal in the transports today is also weighing on FDX, which has reversed from new highs to trade back under the $82.00 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:03:34 PM
NQ futures are the first to break yesterday's low.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:03:17 PM
OI call play APOL is seeing some follow through on the rebound from the $90.00 level but the market weakness is starting to weigh on it.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  3:03:15 PM
The OEX levels bears want to see hold as resistance now are 538.39 or at least 539.14, to keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed toward 536.28. The 15-minute chart suggests that support might be found closer to 537, so be aware of that possibility, too.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  3:02:13 PM
OI call play AET is slipping back from the top of its recent trading range ($86-88) and is currently testing its simple 10-dma near $86.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:01:17 PM
Session lows across the board.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:00:34 PM
Agreed, Jim. The short cycle oscillators peeked their head up for about 5 minutes- a drop from here would chop it off.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:57:16 PM
The OEX now tests the right-shoulder level of that possible reverse H&S. Bears want to see the formation fall apart with a drop to a new low . . . which happened as I typed.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:55:52 PM
The interviewee on CNBC right now is saying that the claims of a middle-class squeeze due to the rise in gasoline and kitchen-table items is "politically motivated." Tell that to my daughter who is considering changing vehicles (to a hybrid) and address because the cost of gas to get her to work is costing more than she can afford and no feasible bus lines are available.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:50:31 PM
There's a possibility that the bounce could be getting underway in the OEX, and it's coming in the form of a potential reverse H&S visible on the 2-minute chart. The OEX is now turning back from the likely neckline area. If the OEX should steady near the 538.40 region and then climb again, bears should be on the watch for a possible move up through the neckline, now at about 539.20, but rising. If confirmed, the upside target would be somewhere near 540.50, so bears need to assess their willingness to risk a rise that far before they know if the OEX will turn lower again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:48:12 PM
The current uptick has just reversed the past hour's losses, and the short cycle oscillators are looking bullish for the first time this afternoon- an upphase has been due to commence all day as the oscillators remained pinned in oversold - look for a retest of the declining 72 period SMA at 10175 YM / 1105.25 ES / 1409 NQ. I do not have sufficient data to generate the moving average for the intraday QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:41:19 PM
Once again, bears got their wish, as the OEX could not maintain levels needed to turn the smallest channel higher again. The smallest channel remains pointed toward lower Keltner support, currently at 536.48. Bears now want to see the OEX stay below 538.63 or at least 539.25-539.75 other than a brief piercing of those levels. With that said, however, this decline has been so relentless that sooner or later the OEX is going to need to have a more prolonged measured distribution pattern such as a bear flag retracing somewhere around 38.2-50.0% of the decline. May not happen today, however.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:41:11 PM
Naz futures are down 1.75% here, Dow futs down only .33%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:39:56 PM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:39:18 PM
Session low for Russell2K futures here, NQ following along. My quotes have QQQ at 34.62, but I'm not sure if they're accurate.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:23:29 PM
In addition to the 538.40-ish level being the level of the 200-ema, it's also the level of the neckline of the reverse H&S that the OEX pushed through yesterday. The OEX found enough strength to temporarily steady there, and now pushes up to test resistance, gathering at the 539 level as well as at 539.62-539.82.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:20:54 PM
I agree with Jane's 14:18 on the basis that higher volume selling, which is generally faster and more violent, frees up more cash along the way with which to buy lower priced securities. Low volume/gradual selling destroys more wealth by trapping more holders and freeing up less cash.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  2:18:01 PM
Some of the insurance stocks are still looking weak. I mentioned yesterday that XL was testing/breaking long-term support. The stock is lower again today. RE announced earnings a couple of days ago and beat estimates by 39 cents and is still seeing a "sell the news" reaction. RE is down another 2.7% today.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  2:13:02 PM
The bounce from support at $70.00 is failing in Fortune Brands (FO). Shares are now under their simple 200-dma and drifting back towards the $70 mark. Earnings are expected on Friday, July 23rd.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  2:11:12 PM
American Express (AXP) $49.06 Link .... back below its 200-day SMA.

DuPont (DD) $42.94 just back under its 200-day SMA.

Other components close.... AA (below) Link

CAT (above) Link

DIS (below) Link

JPM (below) Link

KO (above) Link

MMM (above) Link

MRK (below) Link

UTX (above) Link

VZ (below) Link

  James Brown   7/21/200,  2:10:14 PM
I mentioned INSP looked like a bearish candidate on Monday as shares broke through support at $30.00 and its simple 200-dma. The move also produced a breakdown of the neckline in its H&S pattern. The recent bounce back to $30 and today's drop looks like an entry point for bearish positions. The only challenge is INSP's earnings that are due to come out next Wednesday and we don't like to hold over an earnings report with a directional play.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:09:41 PM
A new session low for NQ here at 1401.5. My intraday data is spotty for everything but futures today, and other traders are complaining of the same problem. Looking at my 30 min and daily charts, however, I have an implied h&s target around QQQ 34.50. The daily cycle bottom would not be compromised by a print at that level, but a move below it would change that. While a correction or consolidation was the call this morning, I'm surprised by the extent and steadiness of the decline today- so far a perfect reversal of yesterday's gains, with the NQ and QQQ leading the way.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  2:07:13 PM
Bears are proving to be pretty tough in Legg Mason (LM). The company recently announced a stock split to soften the sting from its earnings report, which prompted the gap down on Monday. Yet the rally yesterday is failing at the $80.00 mark.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:06:06 PM
The OEX is hitting the 200-ema, a possible bounce point. If so, that should be a bounce back up to test broken support. Bears want to see the OEX stay below 539.36, or at least below 539.96 other than a brief piercing of those levels.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  2:02:13 PM
Again, if that was the OEX retest of broken mid-channel support, it wasn't much of a retest. The smallest Keltner channel on the five-minute chart remains pointed down toward 536.68.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  1:57:34 PM
Noticing that Medicis Pharma (MRX) is cracking under support at its simple 200-dma. The stock's P&F chart has also produced a new sell signal with a $33 target. While MRX looks like a bearish candidate watch the $36.50 level closely. It marks the 50% retracement level of MRX's October-April rally. The stock did bounce strongly from its 38.2% retracement in June.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  1:57:06 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles .... SWC $15.05 -4.5%, OSTK $32.94 -2.57%, TASR $31.47 +1.48%, ACH $53.66 -2.37%, JDSU $3.22 -2.08%, SWK $45.04 -0.38%, QQQ $34.95 -1.36%, OSIP $55.56 -6.44%.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:56:43 PM
The OEX bears got their wish. The OEX wasn't able to mount more than a five-minute bounce before it turned and dropped through the mid-channel support. This has created a breakout situation with respect to the channel that usually stops the OEX, setting up the possibility that the OEX will now drop toward 536.68, the bottom support on the five-minute channel. We should first expect a retest of the broken support at the mid-channel level, with bears now wanting the OEX to remain below 539.84, with the exception of a possible brief piercing of that level, or at least below 540.33. A sustained move above 540.33 would turn the smallest Keltner channel higher again.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  1:51:48 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  1:45:55 PM
New session lows across the board. Channel support is in play for the major indices right here- an acceleration in the current selling would constitute a trending move and is less likely than a sideways consolidation from here. But hte break of 1410 NQ / 34.90-35 QQQ sets up a head and shoulers top with those levels as a neckline- yesterday's lows are now key support in bears' crosshairs.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:44:58 PM
The OEX has almost spanned the distance between its 200-sma and 200-ema today, with the -ema below at 538.25 and with the -sma overhead at 543.69.

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  1:43:49 PM
Earnings today:


Some of these have already reported but quite a few are still to come after the close. The big dogs after the close are EBAY, SYMC, STM, SEBL, QCOM, MCRL, LRCX, ISSX, FISV, CTXS, CERN, ALTR, AFFX, ATVI.

Because of the large number of reports I will not be updating the hits and misses.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:41:55 PM
The OEX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's also lie near the Keltner support, with those averages currently at 539.39 and 539.62, respectively.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:38:29 PM
The OEX begins its bounce attempt. Nearby support now looks firmer than resistance, allowing for the possibility of a bounce, but now we have to see how far it takes the OEX. Bears want to see the OEX maintain levels below 541 and hopefully below 540.50, although a momentary piercing of that lower level would not change the downward slant of the smallest channel.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  1:35:26 PM
The NQ is seriously underperforming its peers, down 1.44% compared with a .11% loss for the Dow futures. The 30 min cycle downphase is in full swing and is so far achieving downside price traction at least equal to what we saw yesterday. On this timeframe, there's no bounce imminent, and the weakness should continue for the rest of the day. The short cycles are another story, however, with a bounce currently overdue and the oscillators pinned in oversold. Recall that we saw the same action yesterday but in overbought territory, and so I'm inclined to pay less attention to them as the longer cycles duke it out, the 30 min and 60 min cycles in gear to the downside against the daily cycle trying to hold the upphase that kicked off yesterday.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:27:05 PM
Here's the test of the mid-channel level on the OEX's 5-minute nested Keltner chart. This level should produce some type of bounce attempt. If it does, bears want to see the OEX fail to maintain levels above 541.30 and preferably above 540.73. A failure to bounce here would drop the OEX below the mid-channel level, and then at some point, we'd expect the bounce to come back up and test that mid-channel level.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  1:23:57 PM
Session lows across the board, with the attempt to regain the 72 period SMA's rejected on all indices.

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  1:21:12 PM
FR Board: Speech by Vice Chairman Ferguson on business-cycle recoveries Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  1:20:32 PM
The OEX now sports a continuation-form H&S on its five-minute chart, with the OEX looking as if it's edging below the neckline now.

I don't always trust these continuation-form H&S's, and this is a tiny one, but the downside target would be about 539.80, which would take the OEX down to test the mid-channel level on its 5-minute nested Keltner chart.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  1:10:49 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

Couldn't get tick/trin at this point, but compiled indices from various sources.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  1:03:30 PM
Telephone + Data Systems (TDS) is hitting new highs today with a 5.88% gain and a breakout over the $75 mark (and its 200-week ma). The company reported earnings that beat estimates by 12 cents. The turnaround has been dramatic for TDS. Q2 earnings were 72 cents a share compared to a loss of 9 cents a share a year earlier. Its P&F chart has produced a new quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $91 target.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  12:59:39 PM
The OEX did bounce as the Keltner chart suggested, but it so far has not been able to maintain values above the point needed to turn the smallest channel higher again. That point is now 541.69.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:59:11 PM
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is also breaking support as investors sell the stock after its earnings report. Shares are down 3.5% to $88.88. The company reported earnings that were inline with estimates ($1.16/share) as revenues rose more than 17% to $3 billion. ITW did raise their guidance from previous forecasts to $1.05 to $1.11 but analysts are already expecting Q3 to come in at $1.10.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:55:53 PM
St. Jude Medical (STJ) is down 4.6% and breaking through support at the $70 level and its simple 200-dma after reporting earnings that were only inline with estimates. The stock looks like a bearish candidate with the breakdown and its P&F chart pointing to a $60 target.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:52:58 PM
My stock feeds continue to be unusable, but I see a bounce in the futures toward their previous violated 72 period SMA's. This test from below needs a break above 1111 ES, 1421 NQ and 10198 to suggest a change of short cycle trend. The short cycle oscillators were maxxed out to the downside on the test of descending 30 min channel support, and some kind of bounce has been due for half an hour now. A weak short cycle bounce will confirm the 30 min (and, just commencing, 60 min) cycle downphases and would set up a likely retest of the day lows. Current channel support looks firm at the session lows for ES and NQ, while YM never made it to the 10150 channel bottom.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  12:44:51 PM
The OEX five-minute nested Keltner charts show the overhead resistance thinning out now, and now looking less firm than the support. That may suggest a bounce attempt soon, but perhaps not before it tests the mid-channel level. We'll just have to see, but bulls want the OEX to maintain levels above 541.60 and bears want it to maintain levels below that. These are not levels at which you should jump into or out of plays, because Keltner lines can be pierced, but levels at which the tenor of trading can be changed if maintained.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:40:23 PM
Swedish telecom equipment and mobile-phone network manufacturer LM Ericsson (ERICY) is up 5.77% after announcing a very strong Q2 earnings report (shares were up almost 10% in Stockholm). The company reported a profit of 4 cents a share compared to a loss last year. Gross margins also expanded but the company said they were "cautiously optimistic" for the rest of 2004.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  12:39:47 PM
The BIX is back under 352, threatening to fall back into the recent consolidation range. This could be just the expected drop back to test broken resistance and see if it holds as support, however, but indices need the continued leadership of the BIX if they're to stabilize. Note that TRAN, also recently a leadership index to the upside, is dropping heavily back toward its 30-dma, now at 3102.26, with the TRAN at 3123.87.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:32:20 PM
Sanmina-SCI Corp (SANM) is up 11.8% to $7.68 after reporting earnings last night that beat estimates by a penny with revenues coming in stronger than expected. CIBC has upgraded the stock from "sector perform" to "sector out perform".

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  12:28:11 PM
The OEX is trying to steady ahead of a test of mid-channel support on the OEX, with that support now ranging from 539.74-539.99. That level should produce some type of bounce attempt, if it's reached. Nearest Keltner resistance is now at 541.32, a level that bears want to see continue to serve as resistance. At any rate, bears don't want to see the OEX maintain levels above 541.80, as that would turn the smallest Keltner channel higher again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:26:29 PM
I'm now showing QQQ bidding at 35.06, offered at 35.08 on both ARCA and at the NYSE, but with a last trade of 34.94. This is proving to be a very frustrating technical day.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:24:47 PM
I've just received a notice from Quotetracker confirming my earlier post about the problems affecting Quotetracker/Interactive Brokers users. Specifying a different exchange works, but of course at the price of losing the previous day's data. Futures quotes continue to stream smoothly.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:20:08 PM
Amphenol (APH) reported earnings and beat estimates by 3 cents this morning. Sales doubled for the quarter and the company raised its earnings and sales outlook for 2004. APH now expects growth in the +35% to +40% range up from +24-30%. Shares have rallied strongly in the last two sessions but today's gains are fading and the stock is back under its 200-dma.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:19:17 PM
New session lows for NQ with the 30 min channel pointing steeply lower as the 60 minute channel begins to follow suit, currently flat from its previous rise. This is all occurring within the daily cycle upturn that printed yesterday. Provided that yesterday's lows do not get broken, the current action should constitute the basing within the turning channel in that longer timeframe. A break below those lows would set up a possible whipsaw with yesterday's buy signal.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  12:16:37 PM
I "fixed" my QCharts ... now I have nothing...

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  12:15:49 PM
Back. The OEX rolled over under the resistance listed in my 11:46 post, not quite reaching it, and now does appear headed toward central channel support, now in the 540 range. Those who might have entered a bearish play on the thought that they could scalp a few points now want to see the OEX maintain values below 542.31 or preferably below 541.80, as values above those levels will either turn the OEX's smallest channel higher again or level it off.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:10:24 PM
Selling is accelerating for the NQ, testing lower Keltner support and trying to break lower out of the descending price channel off the opening highs. Bonds have bounced slightly from their session lows, with TNX now testing 4.5% confluence from above.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:06:55 PM
NQ traded a low of 1416.5. 60 min channel support remains 1415, with the 30 min cycle oscillator dipping to 1414 here. A short cycle bounce should commence from these levels, but as we saw yesterday, it can easily trend as the longer cycles press it, potentially for hours. Support continues to look firm at 35 (equivalent to 1415 NQ).

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:06:37 PM
Ouch! Biotech stock ImClone Systems (IMCL) is down 17% or more than $14 to $66.67 (holding at its simple 100-dma) after reporting Q2 earnings this morning. The company actually beat estimates by 4 cents as revenues jumped about 300% to $71.5 million for the quarter.

Earnings came in at 29 cents a share compared to a loss of 47 cents last year. The chatter is that Erbitux sales, while very strong, were not strong enough to meet investors' lofty expectations.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:00:19 PM
Session lows for ES and NQ futurs, with QQQ down to 35.10.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:58:14 AM
The Washington Times is reporting that three missiles with nuclear warheads have been discovered outside Saddam's hometown of Tikrit. The warheads were shielded in a trench covered in 18 feet of concrete to prevent detection. Here's the article: Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:56:22 AM
Just noticing that my QCharts "Market Watch" is all messed up as it relates to point gian/losses.

INDU was up 60 points, not 120 at 11:00 Update. Probably other errors too.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:53:59 AM
Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $48.66 -2.44% .... lower on US talk of of quotas on Chinese imports.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:52:25 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,139 -0.48% .... turns red.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:51:15 AM
Dow-component UTX is breaking out to new 4 1/2 month highs (+3.3% to $93.57) after reporting its Q2 earnings. The company beat estimates by 9 cents and raised its guidance and its stock buy back program to $800 million.

Here's an excerpt from their press release (and management's positive spin on the quarter):

"This was a very strong quarter. We had double digit organic revenue growth at Carrier, continuing exceptional performance at Otis, and recovery in the commercial aerospace aftermarket," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer George David......"We're raising our 2004 earnings and cash flow outlook accordingly. .....
"We like the way we are positioned for the next several years. Restructuring actions initiated from the first quarter gain, second quarter tax settlement and operating income above expectations will exceed $500 million this year and provide steady and increasing returns over the 2005-2006 time period. We like our acquisition strategy, including the prospective Linde acquisition by Carrier. Our cost reduction disciplines are mature and have momentum and we anticipate continuing margin expansion. The company feels great."

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:50:41 AM
Honeywell (HON) $36.52 +1.72% .... earlier this morning reported quarterly EPS of $0.45 (ex-gain of $0.15 and charge of $0.18 per share) , which was above consensus estimates for $0.38. Reuters saying consensus estimates also excluded gain/charge, so comparable.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:50:33 AM
Volume's sufficiently light here that the oscillators are stalling. A short cycle downphase is in progress is currently oversold but not yet maxxed out. That 1415 channel support level continues to look firm for NQ, and if it breaks for longer than 10 minutes or so, we should see an acceleration to that downside support level of 1410. However, the cycle setup suggests that NQ should find support there- approx. 35.10-.15 for QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:47:12 AM
I have to step away for 30 minutes or so.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:46:54 AM
The OEX did find resistance this morning as the zone that contains the converging 50- and 200-sma's was hit. I would think that upside is limited now on the OEX, but is it time for a bearish play? That, I don't know. If the OEX hits that Keltner resistance at 542.87-542.96 and rolls down again, then it may have seen its high at least until it touches the mid-channel level and re-establishes support there, with the support zone from 539.47-539.86 currently, but still rising. That's not much leeway for options players, however, if that's going to be the only drop that occurs. If that level doesn't hold, 535.96 is suggested as lower-channel support. That would give OEX options players more room, but the most recent touches of the type of resistance shown in my 9:49 post about the resistance on the daily Keltner charts have produced several days when the OEX oscillated around that resistance before deciding on direction. Of course, those were usually times when the OEX eventually climbed above that resistance, and I'm not at all sure yet that's what it will do this time.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:46:06 AM
Dana Corp (DCN) is up 6.4% on decent volume and breaking through plenty of technical resistance at its 10, 21, 50 and 200-dma's. The move follows an upgrade to "buy" from UBS who raised their price target to $23. DCN is due to report earnings after the bell this evening. Estimates are at 49 cents a share.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:42:47 AM
It is interesting to see how Motorola (MOT) and Texas Instruments (TXN), two of the most heavily traded stocks this morning, are painting some bearish candles. Both gapped higher or immediately traded higher at the open only to sharply turn south. MOT is now down 1.24% after failing at its 10 and 200-dma's while TXN is down 3.76%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:35:32 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:32:36 AM
OEX bulls want to see the OEX push above that 542.44 level and stay above it. Preferably they want to see the OEX climb above 542.88. The smallest channel is pointing down now, and it takes a rise and maintaining of values above that first level to stabilize it and one above the second level to turn it higher again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:30:59 AM
Keene's post from 11:27 lines up with a dilemma I was just considering- the NQ's decline (still waiting for my QQQ chart to propagate) is either a bull wedge/flag this morning, or a hunchback head and shoulder top. A break above 1427 NQ on expanding volume would suggest the former bullish intraday scenario, while a break below 1410 the latter. For QQQ, those levels are approximately 35.35 to the upside, 35 to the down.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:22:17 AM
The OEX hasn't made much of a push back up to retest broken support and establish whether it's now resistance or not. It still looks possible that test could be made, but now one Keltner resistance line drops down to 542.44.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:14:51 AM
What was once Keltner support is now Keltner resistance, overhead at 542.67-542.81. Unless the OEX can climb above that level and maintain values above that level, it may have seen its near-term high. Keltner support is widely scattered beneath the current OEX position and doesn't really firm up again until 539-539.40. I do expect the OEX to attempt a climb up to 542.50-543 before we know whether it's going to roll over at that level or climb above it.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:05:57 AM




  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:05:50 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:04:55 AM
Session low for NQ futures here at 1422. Support on the 30 min channel has declined from 1417.5 to 1415.5, just above 60 min channel support at 1415.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  11:03:51 AM
It's looking a little lopsided now, since the OEX found support ahead of the possible neckline area that had been suggested by Keltner support, but here's the formation that I had been watching on the OEX, with the thought that it might be a potential H&S: Link I note bearish divergence as the head was formed. I also note that Jane has (previous to my post) mentioned a similar formation on the ES. The neckline I've indicated is just theoretcial. It's possible that the OEX hasn't yet completed the head formation and will come down to the 542.50 level and then rise again into a right shoulder. Note: The OEX dropped through that neckline level marked on my chart before I could finish this post. Watch to see now if the OEX steadies at 542.50 or so and then rises again, again being alert in that case to a rollover at the possible right-shoulder level.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  11:03:05 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:58:11 AM

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:49:47 AM
As Jane has already noted on the futures side, the TRIN has been steadily moving up from its morning sub-.40 low. OEX bulls should watch this trend.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:48:57 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:48:31 AM
Session lows for bonds here, with TNX up 6.2 bps to 4.51%, breaking previous resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:46:04 AM
Despite the weakness in gold that has key support at 398 breaking this morning, the miners are showing only fractional weakness, with HUI down .34% at 188.5 and XAU -.54% at 87.31. Silver is down .172 or 2.6% at 6.444.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:43:51 AM
Session low for NQ futures here. 1417.5 remains 30 min channel support.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:42:54 AM
OEX bulls should be aware that if the OEX does find support at the firming 542-542.50 Keltner level and rise from there, there's danger of a H&S forming. You would want to see the OEX get past the 543.50 right shoulder level and reach a new high before you felt too comfortable that wasn't occurring. Because of the potential for this H&S and the closeness of the 544-547 likely resistance range, I'm unfortunately not comfortable suggesting new bullish entry points from this level.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:42:22 AM
I've figuered out the quote/intraday chart problem. Quotetracker users using IB's streaming feed need to pull their quotes from any exchange other than using the default "Smart" setting from IB. To get your streaming stock quotes back, change the symbol in Quotetracker to pull from a specific exchange- ie., for QQQ, it would be NYSE:@QQQ to pull NYSE quotes. This has my feed working again- but of course, without overnight data. Waiting for the charts to propagate enough ticks to generate some targets.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:40:31 AM
Biotech Index (BTK.X) 482.50 -1.54% .... off its lows of 478.41.

Invitrogen (IVGN) 54.68 -17.2% Link is component loser after reporting Q2 earnings of $0.74, which was inline with consensus. However, revenues came in at $254 million, shy of $261.5 estimates. Company reaffirmed Q3 EPS of $0.74-$0.76 per share (consensus $0.75) and sees revenues from $255-$260 million, which was at the low end of consensus' $264 million.

IVGN is a component of the NASDAQ-100.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:37:31 AM
OEX Keltner support firming now at 542.17-542.44.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:31:56 AM
Session lows are printing for gold, ten year bond, euro and CDN dollar futrues here- a rise in the USD is obviously underway- so far, equities are softening slightly but not making new lows.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:30:59 AM
Per Linda's 10:23:55 .... I thought the MONTHLY S1 and MONTHLY R1 defined the rectangle pretty good. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:27:17 AM
With the OEX hitting 544, I'd be particularly careful of my position if in a bullish position. We've talked about this 544-547 range for several days, so there's been opportunity to have a plan in place for handling this possible resistance zone: legging out of partial positions, selling the whole position and using only a part of the profits to roll into a higher strike position to keep the opportunity to participate in future gains, if any, just taking profit and hoping you don't have to watch the OEX shoot higher without you, and other more complicated strategies best initiated only by the experienced option player.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:23:55 AM
The BIX's recent consolidation pattern was a fairly well-defined rectangular consolidation pattern. Depending on where you mark the boundaries of that pattern, the upside breakout could have set up an upside target between 356-357. I note some historical resistance near 356.60, so that fits well with the upside target. With the BIX at 353.42 as I type, that still leaves some upside to this index that appeared to have been one of the indices serving as a leading indicator to the others, breaking out before the others did.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:21:46 AM
Ten year yields (TNX) have found resistance at 4.5%, currently up 4.3 bps or .97% at 4.491%. Look for support at 4.47%-4.48%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:21:26 AM
200-day SMA upside alert .... Du Pont (DD) $42.99 +0.58% ....

2 up, zero down.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:19:32 AM
Following Jane's comments, the failure at the highs has left QQQ with an upside doji shadow, and the return to the morning lows completed a gravestone doji formation on the 30 minute charts. That, combined with the toppiness on the 30 minute oscillatorsm bodes ill for the QQQ on an intraday basis, but is offset by the ongoing 60 min cycle upphase and the young daily cycle upphase. That cycle juxtaposition often results in rangebound chop, which we seem to be getting so far since the cash open.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:18:54 AM
So much for the pullback perhaps not being over. The OEX steadied at first available Keltner support and turned higher again, not affording an opportunity for a new entry, even for scalpers.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:15:43 AM
200-day SMA upside alert .... American Express (AXP) $49.58 +0.93% ....

Look at the Dow components and how many are near (above/below) their 200-day SMA.

Then look at your INDU 10,235 +0.84% chart from this morning. Can set alerts at these 200-day SMA and get good feel for the markets.

Allows for a VERY UNBIASED view of the markets.

1 up and zero down.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:13:05 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  10:10:05 AM
I'm not certain that the OEX pullback is over yet, as I'm thinking that the OEX could see-saw back and forth a bit, forming a measured distribution pattern, such as a possible bull flag. I'm still seeing support trying to firm up near 541.87-542.06 and then again from 541.24-541.37. Remember that I also think upside is probably limited to 544-547 or so, after a pullback and another push. A pullback much deeper than 541 would have me questioning whether that 544-547 range could be seen or whether today's high was close enough.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:03:40 AM
Readers interested in following Greenspan's testimony in the House can listen live on Cspan radio at www.cspan.com.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:03:19 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:57:57 AM
The Dow is challenging its 200-sma, as is the OEX. Touchy time for these two indices.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:56:42 AM
Session low for Naz futures here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:55:48 AM
The Fed has just announced a 5.25B overnight repo, which is a net add of 1B against the 4.25B expiring from yesterday.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:52:55 AM
I have my five-minute charts back now, complete with historical data beyond Monday's. It's showing first support at 542.60, but first moderate support down at 541.63, and stronger support trying to regroup at 541. Depends on how quickly the OEX falls which support level will firm up soon enough to hold it or whether any will.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:51:31 AM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 120.86 +1.95% .... 21-day SMA just ahead at 121.71 as well as upper-end of downward regression.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:49:45 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,168 +2.02% ...

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:49:27 AM
Here's the Keltner resistance showing up on the OEX's daily chart: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:45:11 AM
My futures charts are working, however- NQ at 1432.5 is knocking at the door of very strong confluence between 1435 and 1440, with the overnight high at 1438. 30 min channel resistance is conveniently at 1440, with support 1417.5. If bulls can take out that 1440 resistance level, which would surprise me from here without some kind of consolidation first, then we're looking at a very strong start to the daily cycle upphase. A downphase from here should find support at 1417.5, below which 60 min channel support is 1410. As soon as my QQQ feed is back up, I'll switch back.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:45:01 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:42:21 AM
My five-minute Keltner charts are useless today as QCharts is starting data midday on Monday and so channel lines aren't accurate. It's working on the 15-minute chart, so I'll go with that for today, but it won't allow me to pinpoint the likely smaller moves. For those who have requested the data, however, the OEX ranged from 539.65 to 542.71 during the first five minutes of trading.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:40:43 AM
the Hang Seng ($HSI) 12,395.11 +2.24% Link .... got that triple-top buy signal in wednesday's trade.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:39:51 AM
The OEX opens and shoots right up to the upside target predicted by this week's reverse H&S on the short-term charts. Guess it was valid, even if the right shoulder extended too deep and too long for a classic setup. There's now been an extreme breakout on the five-minute Keltner chart, so bulls need to be raising their stops. Must be a day for charting services to have problems (see Jonathan's earlier post about his charting problems) because mine is not giving me all the historical data on my intraday charts, but with the information I have, it would not be unexpected for the OEX to pull back toward the 540.50-541 level before launching itself toward 544-547, even if it's going to head that direction, which is uncertain (although it's headed that way as I type). If in bullish trades, assess whether you're willing to risk that much of a pullback before you know whether something worse than a pullback and second launch is going to happen. Assess, too, if you're willing to bail out this morning, take your profits, and then not get a second chance to enter again at a lower price, perhaps near 540.50-541. I'm making these comments about bullish trades because that's the direction the OEX is headed and upside toward 544-547 has been suggested by some Keltner charts, but they also suggest that such a climb would likely be a countertrend climb and so could fail at any one of a number of interim resistance levels. Make sure you know the risks before engaging in a countertrend trade. At any rate, I don't think that this is a good entry point for any bullish trade, even if you're the kind of scalper who likes these countertrend trades. The OEX is between likely support and the bottom of the likely upside targets.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:39:44 AM
Flying blind here with broker quotes but no charts. QQQ is resting on yesterday's closing levels, testing them from above. 35.55-.60 was a significant confluence zone last week, and continues to be so. Dow futures are hitting session highs as I type. I expect that a break through current support will turn the 30 min cycle back down, as it's grown overbought and is due for a correction or consolidation.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:36:39 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,160 +1.75% ....

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  9:35:14 AM
MSFT is fading fast, now at 29.35. Huge volume hit tht tape at the open and it appears quite a few traders wanted to take the money and run.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:28:33 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) with weekly/monthly pivot retracement at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:24:33 AM
Having technical difficulties here- Quotetracker doesn't seem to be picking my IB feed for QQQ, rendering my intraday charts useless. Working on a fix.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:18:56 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:12:59 AM
The 30 and 60 minute cycle oscillators for QQQ and the Naz futures are still in their upphases, and those upphases have been strong enough to give us the 1st daily cycle buy signal, potentially kicking off a multiweek upphase. The intraday cycles are very extended, however, and short of a vertical flagpole rally which doesn't seem to be developing this morning, we can expect the next move to be a 30 min downphase. If the downphase is weak or sideways, I'll read it as a bullish consolidation within the young daily cycle upturn. Bulls want to see yesterday's lows hold- as long as they do, the daily cycle upphase will remain intact.

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  9:04:03 AM
Editors Play
The Microsoft bounce appears to be fading and I am hoping for one more bounce when the cash markets open for trading. I believe the MSFT bounce will fail and I am suggesting we close the call side of this position as soon as possible after the open. I am suggesting we maintain the put position in case the earnings disappoint on Thursday.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  8:58:07 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. mortgages fell last week after a brief rise in early July, as mortgage rates for most loans were flat to lower, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, fell for the week ending July 16 by 4 percent to 617.9 from the previous week's 643.9. The Washington trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell last week by 6.1 percent to 440.3 from 468.8 in the prior week. The Washington trade group's seasonally adjusted refinancing index decreased by 0.7 percent to 1,651.1 from previous week's 1,662.4.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  8:57:23 AM
JAKARTA (AFX-ASIA) - The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will discuss a possible output rise for September, the cartel's president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said.

Asked by reporters whether OPEC plans such an increase, Yusgiantoro replied: "We'll discuss it."

Yusgiantoro said there is a tendency for oil prices to rise owing to increasing demand but added that OPEC have increased production.

Yusgiantoro, who is also Indonesia's energy minister, said calls by OPEC for non-members to raise production have received no response even though they have large spare capacity.

Yusgiantoro said OPEC still has spare capacity but only for a short term. "That is why we asked non-members to help increase world oil supply," he said.


  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  8:42:30 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  8:42:01 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  8:08:07 AM
Equities have held the bulk of their gains, with ES trading 1113.5, NQ 1434.5, YM 10180 and QQQ up .881 at 35.481. Gold is down 2.50 to 399.60, silver -.116 at 6.50 and ten year bonds -.17 at 110.4062. Greenspan testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10AM. There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  7:16:25 AM
Good morning. With Greenspan's day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee concluded, the Nikkei gapped higher in Wednesday's trading, cheered by his belief that the downturn in consumer spending would be transitory. In addition, speculation arose that Japan's government would raise its estimate for economic growth for the current fiscal year. Crude futures dropped in Tuesday's trading, removing one pressure from equities. TXN's earnings report boosted enthusiasm for chip-related stocks. Both exporters and issues related to domestic demand rose in early trading. Tokyo Electron and Advantest each ended the day more than 4% higher. Nissan Motor and Toyota Motor were among the exporters gaining, with Nissan adding 1.7% and Toyota 0.9%. Standard & Poor's raised its long-term corporate credit and debt ratings on Nissan Motor, and the company also announced plans to issue commercial paper in the U.S. to increase the U.S. auto loan business. Toyota raised its 2004 global sales forecast. In other stock-specific news, Yahoo Japan was a big gainer, up 6% ahead of its after-the-close earnings report. That report showed the company's Q1 net income almost double the year-ago level, with the company citing advertising sales and rising demand in its online auction services as producing that increase in net income. UFJ Holdings and Sumitomo Trust & Banking Corp., two companies now battling each other over UFJ's cancellation of an agreement to sell UFJ Trust to Sumitomo, saw gains. Those gains occurred even though a newspaper speculated that UFJ might write off more bad loans than had been expected, so that the company could show a net loss for the current fiscal year.

All other Asian bourses closed higher with many tech-related stocks gaining throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.57%. With South Korean interest high in South Korea's LG Electronics and Philips Electronics joint venture IPO to be launched Friday, South Korea's Kospi gained 2.21%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.42%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 2.24%. China's Shanghai Composite was nearly flat, however, gaining only 0.01%.

European bourses trade higher this morning, too, boosted by tech stocks. Ericsson's Q2 earnings were much higher than expected, adding to the enthusiasm engendered by U.S. tech reports after the close yesterday. Ericsson's outlook was for a slight-to-moderate growth in its industry, but the results were enough to lift Alcatel and Nokia in European trading. JP Morgan raised its rating of Deutsche Bank to a neutral rating, and the stock was up over 3% at one point this morning, with other German banks also gaining. Drug manufacturer Roche was gaining after reporting earnings, increasing its expectations for operating profit margins for 2004. In the U.K., tech stocks also gained, including the FTSE 100's only tech stock, Sage.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 47.10 points or 1.09%, to trade at 4,386.50. The CAC 40 has gained 45.85 points or 1.27%, to trade at 3,653.24. The DAX has gained 55.56 points or 1.45%, to trade at 3,893.16.

  Linda Piazza   7/20/200,  9:39:06 PM
OEX Notes: The OEX charged higher in Tuesday's trading . . . right up to the bottom of the last congestion zone. That former support could now serve as resistance. Above that former support just under 539, the 200-sma and 50-dma converge at 543.55-544.56. By last weekend, the configuration of the OEX's daily and weekly nested Keltner chart suggested a possible decline down to 530-532 or a possible bounce up to 544-547 (or both), but they also showed converging Keltner resistance that looks strong in that 544-547 zone, at least on the daily chart. The OEX punched through a similar configuration of resistance back in early May, and OEX bulls want to see that happen again, but I would expect several days of hesitation at that level if not a pullback or rollover.

The 15-minute nested Keltner channel also suggests the possibility of a rise toward 544.68. Here's what the chart says needs to happen first: at the beginning of the day Wednesday, the OEX needs to maintain values above 537.20, but preferably above the 538.50 level. This will keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed higher. As the day progresses, those Keltner lines move, of course, and different conditions will need to be met.

If the OEX instead maintains levels beneath 538.50 and especially 537.20 near the beginning of the trading day, it will turn the smallest channel on that 15-minute chart lower again. That suggests vulnerability down to 535.11 again, and to 532.77 if 535 can't be maintained.

Today the TRAN and the BIX led the way higher, with the TRAN now confirming its upside break out of what had appeared to be a bear flag and the BIX reaching another new relative closing high. Watch those indices as well as the SOX. The SOX needs to cooperate if markets are to rally, even if they're to rally modestly. Watch how futures react to overnight developments. As I type, futures are up, perhaps on enthusiasm engendered by MSFT's buyback and dividend programs. TXN was up in after-hours trading after reporting its earnings. Crude futures should not be ignored, either, as rising crude costs should act as a damper on any gains.

  OI Technical Staff   7/20/200,  9:03:11 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally


Market Monitor Archives