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  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  5:44:22 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Keene Little   7/22/200,  5:41:53 PM
Hey Jeff, I know you love Japanese candlesticks. Take a look at the daily candlestick on the DOW. That's a beautiful hammer doji--long shadow underneath a small body. The body on this one is practically a line making it even more bullish looking (dragonfly I think it's called). SPX has a little larger body. Both ran into strong support around their 78.6% retracement levels (I use this one since it's more applicable to EW patterns).

So a strong looking hammer doji on support could have important implications. Confirmation will be a green candle above it tomorrow and that will leave about the strongest reversal pattern you'll find. The potential looks good for the bulls here.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  5:01:34 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  4:04:42 PM
Current OPEN MM profiles I've made at this Link

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  4:02:04 PM
Alert - Earnings today after the close:

CA est +0.18, actual +0.21 beat
CLS est +0.09, actual +0.10 beat
GTW est -0.14, actual -0.13 beat
AMZN est +0.19, actual +0.18 miss
AMGN est +0.60, actual +0.62
BRCM est +0.32, actual +0.35 beat
DCLK est +0.04, actual +0.03 miss
ERTS est +0.05, actual +0.08 beat
FDRY est +0.14, actual +0.11 miss
INVN est +0.34, actual
MENT est +0.10, actual +0.14 beat
MUSE est +0.03, actual +0.01 miss
MSFT est +0.29, actual +0.28 miss after items
PLCM est +0.16, actual +0.17 beat
RSAS est +0.11, actual +0.12 beat
TQNT est +0.00, actual +0.00
VRSN est +0.15, actual +0.15
VTSS est +0.02, actual +0.02
XLNX est +0.28, actual +0.26 miss

  James Brown   7/22/200,  3:59:52 PM
That is amazing to see EBAY turn positive up 73 cents to $77.33.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  3:52:21 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $55.64 -0.37% ... after the close expecte to report quarterly EPS of $0.59.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  3:51:17 PM
If you nibbled on a bullish OEX play, do you hold overnight or not? Here are some facts to consider: the OEX has made it above the mid-channel level on the five-minute chart, with the smallest channel pointed higher, but it hasn't been able to break free of next Keltner resistance, tugging it along with it, so it's unclear yet as to whether it will be able to move up to 539.41 or whether it's going to turn back. The formation looks a little rising wedge-ish, which is normally a bearish formation, but sure hasn't performed that way this year. The OEX has not yet made it above the mid-channel level on the 15-minute chart and it was in fact, the touch of that mid-channel level on that chart that turned the OEX lower again. Nothing on these charts gives a clear answer as to whether 539 will be tested or whether this 38.2% retracement of the decline will be it before the OEX rolls down again. Zooming all the way out to the weekly chart shows that the OEX approached weekly support and bounced from it, support that looks strong, but this is a weekly chart and the OEX could go on testing that support for a week or two . . . or three before it decides direction, dipping down to the support, climbing up to 544 next resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  3:48:30 PM
The NQ and QQQ have led to the upside today, with the Dow and SPX futures trailing behind. The Dow set a lower low for the move today and doji-ed back up, but has retraced only a small fraction of yesterday's loss. That said, the daily cycle continues to be making what looks like a low in oversold territory and the 10 day stochs are still pointed up, despite yesterday's washout.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  3:40:09 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) .... $32.97 +4.46% .... reports quarterly earnings after the close. Consensus is for loss of $0.17 per share on revenues of approx. $78 million.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  3:39:35 PM
The OEX climb off today's low is beginning to look a little bearish rising wedge-ish to me, but we all know how frequently these have broken to the upside lately, don't we? Bulls should be watchful just in case, though.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  3:35:58 PM
The OEX is having difficulty pulling free of Keltner resistance, bulging one channel line out rather than breaking out, as bulls would prefer. Still, as long as it stays above 535.76 on a sustained basis in the next few minutes, the smallest channel will stay pointed higher. Sustained values below 535.20 will turn it lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  3:30:34 PM
Still no sign of weakness out of the 30 minute cycle, with another higher low just printed on the last wavelet pullback to 34.82 QQQ. 30 min channel resistance is up to 35.10, support 34.46. Short cycle support has likewise moved up, also at 34.82 currently.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  3:29:00 PM
Truly amazing

  Jane Fox   7/22/200,  3:27:44 PM
James isn't it amazing how gravity can take over a stock. (15:24 post)

  James Brown   7/22/200,  3:24:43 PM
Ouch! Rogers Corp (ROG) has erased about four months of steady gains in the last two sessions. On Tuesday it broke support at the 50-dma (that's when it showed up on the PremierInvestor watch list). Wednesday is dropped through and closed under support at the $60 level and its 100-dma. Today shares are down 21% as investors react to its earnings report last night. I can't find a good estimate but investors are obviously not happy with the results.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  3:19:32 PM
The small H&S at the top of the OEX climb has been rejected, showing that the bears were not able to carry through and drive the OEX lower. The OEX needs to maintain levels above 535.33 to keep the smallest channel pointed up toward 539.33, or at least 534.39 to keep it from turning down again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  3:17:47 PM
Session highs across the board here.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  3:17:01 PM
The OEX is struggling to hold the mid-channel level. As it does so, it's forming a tiny regular H&S at the top of the climb, however. Bulls want to see the OEX get above 536 again to suggest that the formation is being rejected, while bears want the opposite, of course. The OEX is moving toward that 536 level as I type. If confirmed, the downside for the H&S would be only about 533.80, but as I type, it looks as if the OEX may be able to reject the formation.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  3:11:13 PM
Session low for gold at 394.60, losing the 395 support level on the way to firmer support at 392. 398 held as resistance when tested this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  3:05:11 PM
QQQ should find support at 34.72-.74 on this pullback, below which the short cycle oscillators would likely kick off a new short cycle downphase.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  2:59:34 PM
The OEX pauses while Keltner support tries to converge beneath it. It's not particularly strong yet, but exists at the 535.20 level, at 534.50, and again at 533.87, then down at 532.12 and 530.87. As you can tell from this listing, some of those lines are scattered and not converging yet the way bulls would like to see. There's danger here for bulls as this is the 38.2% retracement of the decline, one point at which the OEX could pull back. Yet the confirmed reverse H&S has a higher upside target, nearer 539, just where the Keltner charts suggest the OEX should go if it can steady here while support firms or if it can begin climbing again. On the very short term, bulls want to see the OEX maintain levels above 534.39, but preferably above 535.20.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  2:58:58 PM
02:55 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  2:42:29 PM
30 min chart update at this Link

  James Brown   7/22/200,  2:40:42 PM
Oil services stock Smith Intl Inc (SII) has beat estimates by 3 cents and guided higher for the next quarter. Yet the stock is only up 16 cents to $56.66.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  2:40:28 PM
I didn't expect to see 34.96 this quickly, but here we are. This 30 min channel touch lined up with an overbought short cycle oscillator would normally be a sell signal, but we'd want to see the 30 min oscillators overbought and rolling over, which they're far from doing. I expect some short cycle consolidation, perhaps, but it looks very early to me to expect a meaningful rollover.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  2:39:52 PM
The OEX is now climbing above the mid-channel resistance on the five-minute chart. The OEX needs to maintain 535.50 or at least 534.60 to keep the smallest channel pointed higher, toward the 539 level. As I mentioned this morning, the resistance levels are thinned out now because of the steepness of the fall, and if the OEX can get safely above the current resistance and not just pierce it briefly, then there's not anything between here and 539.25 on the five-minute Keltner chart.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  2:37:08 PM
We're definitely seeing a lot of "hammer" style candlesticks today. These are all one-day bullish reversal signals but they do need confirmation.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  2:33:11 PM
NQ and QQQ are printing new highs, and the 30 and 60 minute channels are at last pointed north. Resistance is now 34.96-35.00, support 34.40. Naturally, the short cycle oscillators are now overbought, but the current wavelet downphase is getting zero price traction- it appears that the 30 min cycle is dominant here. 34.74 should now act as support on any pullback, and if this proves to be a reverse head and shoulders as discussed earlier, the implied target is 35.45 QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  2:21:53 PM
The OEX has confirmed the reverse H&S.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  2:10:26 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 15.91 -3.04% ... pretty good reversal today after morning high of 17.10.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  2:08:42 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  2:07:18 PM
Here come those highs- GE, ES, QQQ, INTC.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  2:04:59 PM
The short cycle is chopped up for QQQ, but the wavelet bounce currently in effect should be good for another 5 cents or so. The 30 min cycle channels are now beginning to slope higher, as are the 60's, with resistance now lined up at 34.86, support at 34.20. The last pullback reversed from a higher low above the descending intraday bull wedge trendline, but the bounce has been slow and unimpressive so far- I expect that it's going to take a break of the session high to get things moving.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  2:04:15 PM
A bit delayed, but here comes the push on the OEX.

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  2:03:39 PM
Earnings today after the close:

AMZN est +0.19,
AMGN est +0.60,
BRCM est +0.32,
CLS est +0.09,
CA est +0.18,
DCLK est +0.04,
ERTS +0.05,
FDRY est +0.14,
GTW est -0.14,
INVN est +0.34,
MENT est +0.10,
MUSE est +0.03,
MSFT est +0.29,
PLCM est +0.16,
RSAS est +0.11,
TQNT est +0.00,
VRSN est +0.15,
VTSS est +0.02,
XLNX est +0.28

Companies reporting that I will not be tracking:


  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  2:02:09 PM
We got through the 1:35-1:55 stop-running time of day without any stops being run either direction on the OEX. It moved up toward the confirmation level of a reverse H&S, neither confirming it nor moving low enough to negate it. There wasn't a new five-minute high or five-minute low. Those on the bullish side, on hopes of a move up to 534.60-535 or on a possible move to 539 if that resistance should be breached, want to see the OEX maintain values above 532.78 and preferably above 533.50. Those who might have nibbled on bullish plays this morning need to guard their profits if 534.60-535 should be approached, however, as there's no assurance the OEX can get through that level, and it's a possible turnaround point for the index. The slow climb has allowed resistance to firm up a bit more at that level.

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  1:51:42 PM
Fox news reporting a ship off the coast of New York with a bomb aboard.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  1:46:54 PM
The fallout from Sears' lousy earnings report appears to be impacting shares of KMart Holdings (KMRT). KMRT is down 6.5% and breaking down through round-number support at the $70.00 mark.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  1:43:24 PM
The OEX pulled up ahead of the 531-ish region, something bulls would like to see happen. Now it needs to sustain the push higher and move above 533.20, sustaining values above that line. The neckline of the reverse H&S has now risen and the central channel level has now dropped, so that they're converging between 534.69-535.12. How does it do that? Happens over and over again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  1:41:16 PM
Session low for gold here at 395.10, down 2.10.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  1:36:25 PM
Updated short cycle QQQ chart at this Link . Bulls want to see that lower rising trendline hold for a possible right inverse shoulder or a rising triangle. A break below it will begin to muddy the waters pattern-wise.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  1:35:33 PM
The BIX did drop down to its 100-dma, but it sprang up again after touching the 50-dma. Or was it the 72-ema that I watch that prompted the bounce? Here's the chart with the 72-ema (blue) and 50-sma: Link Note how the 72-ema has played a more important part in recent trading, while the 50-dma seemed to be more important through the spring of this year?

  James Brown   7/22/200,  1:33:46 PM
Interesting... Retailer Sears Roebuck (S) missed estimates by 23 cents! Wall Street was expecting 71 cents a share and Sears reported 48 cents a share with revenues dropping almost 14% to $8.78 billion. Furthermore Sears guided lower for the rest of the year. The stock gapped lower to $31.21 (from $34.93 yesterday) but immediately rebounded and has almost filled the gap. I suspect that once the gap is filled Sears will turn lower again.

Here's a quote from their press release:
"Like much of the industry, we experienced weak demand in June," said Chairman and CEO Alan J. Lacy. "That, combined with the overhang of our spring apparel assortment and inventory issues, resulted in a disappointing quarter."

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  1:31:18 PM
This rollover is targeting the old bull flag resistance line that broke back when it was up at 34.50. The descending line is now down at 34.41 on my chart, and a bounce from there would be a bullish return to the scene of the crime. A failure should target 34.20 support.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  1:28:58 PM
The 531.10-531.28 Keltner support waits below, an approximate right-shoulder level, too. Bulls want to see that level hold as support and then for the OEX to turn up through 532.74, sustaining that, and then move through 533.50-534. Depending on how you draw the neckline of that reverse H&S, it may be higher than that, however, just below the resistance from 534.83-535.27.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  1:23:20 PM
Dow-component Caterpillar's (CAT) 5% drop is affecting Deere Co (DE). Shares of DE gapped down and are trading at $62.18 -2.18%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  1:23:08 PM
The Fed has announced a Coupon Pass in the amount of $1.396, leaving just over 1B net draining today, but adding permanent reserves via this permanent open market operation.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  1:17:12 PM
01:10 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  1:15:51 PM
The OEX begins what looks like a pullback into a possible right shoulder for its potential reverse H&S on the five-minute chart. We've seen some of these drop past the right-shoulder level, negating the formations, so there's no surety it will confirm.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  1:15:51 PM
30 minute QQQ chart at this Link.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  1:15:43 PM
Lam Research (LRCX) is up 18.9% to $23.56 after beating earnings last night by 11 cents and raising guidance for the next quarter. Bank of America has upgraded the stock to a "buy" while WR Hambrecht has reiterated its "buy" rating on LRCX.

It will be interesting to see if LRCX can keep the positive momentum going. Its P&F chart remains bearish. It feels a bit like a short squeeze but short interest wasn't that high at 4.8% of the float.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  1:09:48 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:59:12 PM
Is this the pullback to form a right shoulder? Could be. Five-minute Keltner support has two lines converging at the 533.20-ish level, though, so that could support the OEX. Bulls would prefer to see the OEX hold above that level or at least above 532.50, but strongest support may be down around 531.29. A drop that low is still going to fit with the reverse H&S scenario, but will flatten the smallest channel or perhaps even turn it lower again.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:57:31 PM
QCOM is trading higher, up 4.8% to $70.95 after its earnings report. The company beat estimates by 4 cents and guided higher for the next quarter. Short-term technicals are turning bullish from oversold and its MACD is hinting at a new buy signal soon.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  12:55:13 PM
Gold has gone negative here, down 40 cents at 396.80 (session low 395.10), with HUI up .13% currently at 184.71 and XAU up .46% at 86.04.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:55:07 PM
EBAY is still rebounding. The stock is down 2.1% to $75 but up off its lows of $71.45. EBAY should have decent support at the $70 level bolstered by its simple 200-dma.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:53:18 PM
Disk-drive maker Maxtor (MXO) has been sinking for months and was trading at $5.52 yesterday. This morning it was downgraded to "under weight" by Pacific Growth and shares dropped to $4.47 before bouncing. MXO is currently down 9.78% to $4.98.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  12:47:33 PM
Session high for NQ and QQQ here. 30 min channel resistance is 34.78, 60 min resistance 34.82 QQQ. The wavelet oscillator is now trending within the short cycle upphase, but the 30 and 60 min channels need to complete the upturn. Both are currently flat.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:47:12 PM
That wasn't much of a pullback, was it, or much of a right shoulder to go with the incipient reverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart? Either enough bulls were afraid of this getting away without them and bought ahead of the pullback, or the pullback to test and establish support is still to come, with the neckline then a slanting one. Support is layered underneath the OEX, but still strongest near 531-531.40. Bulls would prefer now that the OEX stay above 532.80, however. Resistance is still layered thinly overhead, so that the OEX has a chance of moving above the resistance if it moves quickly enough. The 535-535.63 zone is a likely point for a pullback to establish whether support will hold, if a pullback hasn't occurred before then. As that level is approached, any bulls who stepped in early should guard their positions, as it's a 38.2% retracement of the flagpole decline. If this formation is some type of bearish measured distribution pattern (doesn't appear to be yet), then the OEX really shouldn't retrace more than 50% of the decline, at 536.75 before it breaks to the downside again.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  12:46:50 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 415.40 +0.93% .... firt to trade a DAILY Pivot. ALTR $19.72 +4.94%, MOT $15.45 +3.9%, LLTC $38.64 +3.67%, AMD $12.48 +2.97%

QQQ $34.70 +0.87%

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:38:59 PM
Boston Scientific (BSX) is down 3.65% to $34 despite news that the FDA has approved clinical trails for BSX's Liberte aclitaxel-eluting coronary stent system.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:33:31 PM
AMC Entertainment (AEN) said it will be sold to Marquee Holdings in a deal worth $2 billion.

AMC's majority shareholder Apollo Management LP is doing the deal with J.P.Morgan's Marqee Holdings to take the movie chain private. Shares of AEN are up 10.7% to $19.01 and up significantly from its lows near $14 a week ago.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:31:26 PM
The OEX is holding near 533 long enough for support to begin forming underneath at the 531-531.50 level. It's still possible/likely that it will pull back to test that and see if it holds. Bears should have exit plans in mind in case it does and the OEX then moves above the 533.50-534 level again.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  12:23:15 PM
It looks like the break through 34.50 resistance wants to hold for the time being- a move above 34.75 could form a sloppy reverse h&s neckline break from yesterday, prohecting to an implied target around 35.45 if it occurs. However, a wavelet cycle downphase is lining up here for a probable retest of 34.45-.50.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:22:39 PM
The OEX hit 533.30 (well, almost, 533.14), and now pulls back slightly. Bears want to see it drop back below 531.78 or preferably 530.84. Bulls want to see it hold above the 531.50-ish level on a sustained basis. The smallest Keltner channel now points higher for the first time since yesterday morning before the downturn. Some risk takers out there may have already begun nibbling on bullish positions and these are the levels they want to see sustained over the next few minutes, if the OEX should pull back now.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:15:42 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX climb up to 533.30 or so and then drop back to retest the just broken-through Keltner resistance, now left behind near 531-531.50. If that happens and then the OEX pushes back above the 534 level, then we could see a push up to test 536-537.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:12:22 PM
OEX bears want to see the OEX drop quickly below 531 again or there's danger of a bigger upside move. Be prepared in case such a move begins.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  12:10:55 PM
OSI Pharma (OSIP) $55.55 +1.03% .... chart at plan for the 3 Aug. $50 puts at this Link

PnF chart at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:08:23 PM
If the OEX can shoot past this 532 level and sustain levels above it, resistance is really thin overhead, at least on a Keltner basis. The mid-channel level is at 535.93.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  12:07:56 PM
Short cycle view of QQQ with trendlines. Upper resistance is being broken as I type- a sustained break above 34.50 could set up this downward drift today as a bull flag: Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  12:03:36 PM
We have a miniature reverse H&S trying to build on the OEX five-minute chart. It's tiny, but would point the OEX up toward the 531.23-531.90 next Keltner resistance.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  12:01:32 PM
Administaff Inc (ASF) may be too cheap to trade options on but stock traders may want to give it a look. Shares are breaking down through congestion near the $14 level, which also happens to be the bottom of its long-term rising channel dating back to September 2002.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:56:42 AM
There's some interesting action in OI put play DISH. The stock is up 4% despite bad news coming out last night that its CFO was leaving for "personal reasons". Normally that type of news sends a stock lower. The rally could be attributed to SBC's earnings report where it was unveiled that SBC had signed up thousands of customers to DISH's satellite TV package in an effort to compete with its cable rivals. Thus far the rally in DISH has failed at its descending moving averages and this may be just another entry point for bearish positions.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  11:56:10 AM

The short cycles never made it to overbought territory before rolling over, but the downphase is no more assertive or impulsive than the upphase which preceded it. The 30 min channels had been upticking and are down drifting south again. The 60 min cycle has been running behind the 30 for the past few sessions, and it continues to slow its decline. What I'm thinking is that we're seeing the bottoming phase of the 60 min cycle, always within what should be the bottoming phase of the daily cycle as well. If so, we could get hours of consolidation down here as support firms- but the eventual upmove implied by the bottomy daily, 60 and 30 min cycles should still be out there. Current support is between 34.10-.20, while resistance is from 34.75-.80.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:54:31 AM
OEX Keltner resistance regathering now at 531.39-532.00

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:47:20 AM
OI put play MGA is slipping lower again and about to test the $80.00 level soon.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:46:09 AM
Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen says the S&P 500 is undervalued by 12% and said her estimates point to a 1,250 target for the S&P 500 in the next six to twelve months.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:45:17 AM
For reference, the OEX swing low in May was 526.53.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:44:41 AM
OI put play Goldman Sachs (GS) is down another 1.5% and hitting new lows not seen since last October. The bearish P&F chart points to a $78 target.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:42:57 AM
Traders are still selling the recent "winners" and ZBRA, which has been climbing steadily for months in a rising channel has just broken through support at the $80 level (and the bottom of the channel). We are stopped out.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:41:26 AM
More weakness in HUG. Today's drop has broken support at the $60.00 level. I'd suggest exiting this call play if it breaks the $58 level.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  11:41:24 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:39:27 AM
The bearish reversal and breakdown in the Dow Jones Transportation index under the 3050 level looks very discouraging for bulls and Dow Theory fans. It's also weighing on our call play in FDX which is slipping toward support at $80.00.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:35:08 AM
OI call play APOL is slipping 1.8% today after holding up pretty well yesterday. Shares are falling to round-number support at $90.00.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:33:49 AM
Uh-oh! OI call play and insurance stock Aetna (AET) is following the IUX Insurance index lower. AET is down 1.7% and cracking the $85.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:32:23 AM
Keltner resistance is stringing out a bit, making it possible that the OEX will have an easier time moving up through it. Doesn't guarantee that it will, as it's necessary that the OEX bounce quickly enough to keep it from converging again.

  James Brown   7/22/200,  11:31:42 AM
The recently rumored takeover/merger news between Adolph Coors (RKY) and Canada's Molson Inc. have been proven true. The two companies announced a merger agreement this morning that would make the combined company the No 5. brewer in the world. Yet there is a potential snag. Ian Molson, a prior deputy chairman for Molson Inc, has declared a last minute takeover offer for Molson.

Shares of Coors are down 2.3% to $73.01 and testing their 21-dma.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:27:10 AM
After breaking out to the topside, the BIX turned around within a couple of days and now heads to the bottom of its former rectangular consolidation pattern. Over the last seven trading days, the BIX had been supported by its 30-dma, but it opened at that MA this morning and then dove, now reaching toward the nearby 50- and 100-sma's, with those averages at 345.16 and 344.30 and the BIX at 345.62 as I type. The 100-sma has roughly defined the bottom of the rectangular formation over the last two months, with a few piercings of that MA but with most candle bodies forming above it. The 21(3)3 stochastics are now fully bearish. This price action gives the BIX's formation a broadening look, with broadening formations typically indicative of instability, and with this type of broadening formation (flat bottom, ascending top) generally bearish. We've seen many of the typically bearish formations break to the topside after all over the last year and a half, and even Pring admits that these formations sometimes fail to work. Watch price action, but those hoping for upside help from the BIX might be forewarned that there's a possibility that it won't be able to deliver.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:18:11 AM
The OEX is touching the mid-Keltner channel level on the weekly chart. Most times when that level is touched, the OEX consolidates for at least a week, but in early 2001, the weekly chart showed a within-one-week touch and quick rebound from that line. On a weekly basis, sometime within the next several weeks, the OEX needs to steady within the next few points, say down to 527 or perhaps even 525, and then rebound above 543.79 and sustain values above that level, or there's danger of falling through that mid-channel level.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:14:00 AM
And new lows for the OEX. The Keltner resistance continues to hold, and the bullish intentions displayed by that potential reverse H&S did not play out. This is the benefit of watching for these small formations. Their targets aren't far enough away for options players to trade on them, but they nevertheless can show us whether bullish or bearish sentiment is winning out. Bears should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  11:11:10 AM
Need to step away for 45 minutes here.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  11:08:25 AM
That next firm Keltner resistance has now descended to 532.88-532.99. There's also light Keltner resistance at 532.30. Bears want to see the OEX stopped at one of these levels, other than a quick piercing that's just as quickly reversed.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:59:34 AM
Ten year bonds are hitting a new session high with TNX down 3.7 bps to 4.45%. Support is just below at 4.44% and 4.4%, followed by 4.32%. Meanwhile gold is holding its small gain, up 70 cents at 397.90 after failing at a high of 398.90. HUI is up .86% at 186.06 while XAU is up 1% at 86.51.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:59:16 AM
The OEX needs to steady here (531.75-ish) or it's rejected the possible reverse H&S.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  10:54:00 AM
10:50 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:51:53 AM
The OEX again pulled back from its test of that gathering Keltner resistance, now from 533.20-533.40. The potential reverse H&S is perhaps forming a second right shoulder or perhaps is failing. We'll soon see, but I don't think the OEX is yet through challenging that gathering Keltner resistance.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:47:03 AM
This is turning into a mess on the short cycle oscillators- bullish and bearish divergences together as the wavelet oscillators squeeze into a wedge. But the bottom line is that this show is so far on the bulls' nickel- that is, during the time for a short cycle upphase. If the price can't advance, then the 30 min cycles will begin trending in oversold as the upphase is now overdue.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:37:14 AM
The Keltner resistance now at 533.63-533.81 continues to firm. I agree with Keene's assessment (on the Futures side) that we might see a tighter-range period this morning. The question is, how much tighter? The OEX has fallen 13 points from yesterday's high, so even a four- or five-point range would seem tighter in comparison. A 38.2% retracement of the fall so far would take the OEX back up to 536.12 and a 50% retracement would take it to the mid-channel area, near 537.50. Currently, it looks possible that the 19.1% retracement level at 533.64, near the gathering Keltner resistance, will hold, but if the OEX can climb above that and sustain levels above that, resistance thins until 537.65.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:31:39 AM
We have 16.75B in repos added today, 8.75B of which on an overnight basis. Expiring are 5.25B in overnight money, 3.25B in 6-day money and 11B in 14-day money, for a net 2.5B drain today from the Fed.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:25:56 AM
The wavelet oscillator is rolling from a lower high here, not what bulls want to see. That said, this is based on a single 100-tick candle, and I'm going to try to back away from the "subatomic" view. The 30 min channel is still flat, and the oscillators look to be bottoming but I'm still not showing an upphase here. Resistance is now 34.85 for both the 30 and 60 min channels, support 34.20 for the 60 min channel, 34.05 for the 30 min channel.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:25:43 AM
June's Leading Indicators Index fell 0.2%, against expectations of a rise of 0.2%.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:20:18 AM
If the OEX comes up to test that 534-ish Keltner resistance again, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hold again, and then the OEX turn back into a possible right shoulder for a potential reverse H&S. It would be after the pullback that we'd see whether bulls could carry through on bullish intentions, as a rise through the neckline and 534-ish Keltner resistance would show that at least on the very short term, bulls were gaining strength, while a fall back to the head level and below would show a rejection.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:14:52 AM
The wavelet downphase has settled now and is trying to tick back up. The 34.40 level held, and so I'm expecting a retest of the day highs- a failure to do so would spell trouble for the current short cycle upphase, while a break of the highs would result in the 30 min channel at last turning up.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:14:21 AM
The SPX is falling through May's congestion zone more quickly than I expected, following the SOX's pattern is it tumbled through the lower half of its descending regression channel more closely than I expected. Still, the SPX, too, is approaching another possible support zone. Turning back to the OEX, that Keltner resistance is now descending, now trying to firm from 533.76-534.34. Sometime or other, we're due for a 38.2-50% retracement of the big waterfall decline since yesterday morning, however, so bears should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops and make plans to guard profits. We could continue the waterfall decline today, but daily and weekly Keltner charts suggest that the OEX will steady somewhere between the current level and the 527 level, perhaps then bouncing back toward 543.50-544 again. I'm still not sure now is the time to bet on such a bounce, however, by switching sides and going long the OEX. Could be, but I'm not sure yet.

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  10:07:52 AM
OPEC announces another +10% production increase to maintain stability in prices.

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  10:06:14 AM
Monthly Mass Layoffs = 1,369 (last 988) This is a sharp increase in layoffs and a reversal of the downward trend.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  10:05:27 AM
Current OPEN MM profiles I've made at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  10:04:23 AM
The OEX first resistance did hold. That resistance is now looking a bit firmer but still not quite as firm as bears might like, from 534.30-534.70. So far, so good, for those already in bearish plays, but continue to guard profits. Not so good for those who might have wanted a new bearish play.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  10:02:22 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  10:00:57 AM




  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  10:00:22 AM
Conference Board Leading Indicators = -0.2% (est +0.0%, last +0.5%)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:57:34 AM
Here comes a wavelet pullback. If QQQ bounces from above 34.40, it will confirm what looks so far like a bona fide short cycle upphase. As expected, the 30 min channel is just beginning to turn up, and as the 30 min cycle had been deeply oversold, I expect the next multi-hour intraday move to be at least sideways to upward as the intraday cycles work their way out of oversold.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:53:13 AM
The OEX Keltner resistance near 535 (534.73-535.42) is still trying to firm, but it's not clear yet whether it can do so before the OEX hits it. When the OEX drops so quickly, the lines course down quickly, too, and have no opportunity converge. If the OEX bounces just as quickly, it can sometimes move right up through them. So, it depends on how quickly this bounce progresses as to whether that resistance can hold. We could see a bit of zooming around this morning, and those who have been in profitable bearish plays need to have that plan in place as to how they'll handle any possible zooming around. I'm not sure yet whether this is a good time for a bullish play. I'm watching the SPX (currently sitting right on its 200-ema), seeing if it can rise toward its 200-sma.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:46:44 AM
A short cycle upphase is in progress for the first time since the first hour yesterday. I have 30 min channel resistance at 34.80, but if the short cycle upphase doesn't abort in the next half hour or so, we should see the broader channels turn up and begin moving higher, taking that band resistance level with it.

  Jim Brown   7/22/200,  9:46:20 AM
The train in Newark that was evacuated this morning has resumed operation. There was a suspicious note found in a bathroom. This could also have been the reason for the pre open drop.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  9:43:34 AM
Swing trade sell covered call alert for SWC .... Sell 3 August $15 calls (SWCHC) $0.80 bid, on Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.75 -0.27%.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:42:06 AM
The OEX daily Keltner chart shows the OEX trying to steady at two converging channel lines, with support down to 529.31 on those lines. Zeroing in on the five-minute chart shows resistance trying to converge from 534.90-535.60.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:39:32 AM
Session high for NQ and QQQ here.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:37:25 AM
The OEX opens and dives into the 530-533 zone. Bears need to have plans in effect to protect their profits as the OEX moves toward possible support. There has now been a breakout on the 15-minute Keltner chart, signaling a need to follow the OEX lower with your stops.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:33:03 AM
Gold is up 1.70 to 398.90, knocking back at the door of the key 398-402 confluence. 395 support held, and above 402, there's light resistance at 405 on the way to 408. Below 395, 392 is support. HUI is up .42% at 185.24, while XAU has yet to open.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:24:02 AM
Yesterday others mentioned being without charts, and now I've been struck. Can't get charts this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  9:22:32 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:11:31 AM
Session highs for gold, silver and euro futures here. ZN bonds are back to positive, with the TNX down 2.2 bps at 4.465%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:07:39 AM
The NQ and QQQ are back to light negative territory, but the YM and ES are getting hit. ES is down at 1087.75, a level I remember from many months back as being very strong support. YM is at a low of 9965. QQQ is down .02 again to 34.38.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  9:03:04 AM
Looks like the dive is attributable to the warning from S and the earnings miss from CAT.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  8:55:16 AM
Futures have just taken a dive, with YM below 10000 at 9994. Could be the warning from S, but looking now for other news. QQQ and NQ are down as well, but not by as much.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  8:36:21 AM
Bonds have flipped to negative since the 8:30 release, with TNX up 0.6 bps to 4.493%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  8:31:37 AM
Session highs for gold, silver and equities across the board.


8:29am U.S. 4-WK INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 2,500 TO 336,750



  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  8:22:01 AM
Session highs breaking out for equities, with NQ up to 1390 and QQQ up a dime to 34.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/22/200,  8:10:19 AM
Equities are mixed this morning, with ES up 1 tro 1091.5, NQ -1 to 1385.5, YM up 9 to 10022 and QQQ trading lower by 6 cents at 34.36. Bonds are up .187 to 110.5312, gold is down .40 to 396.80 and silver is flat at 6.40. We await the 8:30AM release of initial claims for the week ending July 16th, est. 345K, and at 10AM, June leading economic indicators, est. 0.0%.

  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  7:19:09 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened just above 11,300, but then spent the morning and early afternoon testing 11,250 support. Rising slightly from that support into the close, the Nikkei closed at 11,285.04, down 148.82 points or 1.30%. Early Thursday morning, the Japanese government released figures showing that its trade surplus decreased a faster-than-expected 27% in June, while it was still higher by 36.9% year-over-year. The figures demonstrated that manufacturers stepped up purchases of machinery and parts needed to expand production. Exports rose, too, with exports to China reportedly rising more than 30%. Demand from China and the rest of Asia, as well as from the U.S., drove growth. News included Mitsubishi Motors' decision to trim the workforce at an Illinois factory by one third, with the company reducing the workday to a single shift. The company will also close a plant in Okazaki, Japan, and an engine factor in Australia. The stock bounced in early trading in Japan, but had fallen 0.9% by the close, and another car manufacturer, Toyota Motor, never fared very well in the day's trading. It led declines in early trading, although it was down only 0.5% by the close. One article commented that companies that had reported strong earnings tended to perform well even in the weak market, however. Yahoo Japan was one of those companies, closing higher by 3.6%.

Most other Asian bourses declined, too, with techs generally weak throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.39%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.42%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.54%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.60%. China's Shanghai Composite declined a heftier 2.80%.

All European bourses trade lower this morning, with tech stocks, insurers, media-related issues, and metal stocks performing poorly. June's French consumer spending was released today, with INSEE, the national statistics office, revealing numbers that surprised to the upside. According to one article, a 0.3% rise was expected, but the number instead was a 4.2% rise. Markets also reacted to various earnings releases. Oracle rival SAP dropped after its software revenue rose less than the company had guided analysts to expect, but SAP's operating income edged just above the expectations. SAP dropped almost 3% in early trading. Germany's Schering raised its 2004 earnings outlook and was rising in early trading. French consumer electronics company Thomson was also gaining in early trading after increasing its outlook for 2004, based on an increased sales growth target. Luxury goods seller LVMH Moet Hennessy beat expectations for H1 sales and said that it expected 2004's operating profits to increase significantly, but was falling in early trading. Yogurt maker Danone's H1 profits were slightly below expectations, and the stock was flat in early trading.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had fallen 58.30 points or 1.33%. The CAC 40 had fallen 49.07 points or 1.35%. The DAX had fallen 59.66 points or 1.54%.

  Linda Piazza   7/21/200,  9:25:43 PM
Wednesday, the OEX rose to test its converging 50- and 200-sma's and then plunged through the rest of the day. The day's trading produced a bearish engulfing candle that also left an upper shadow behind, but it is perhaps the SPX's action that was more troubling to those expecting another bounce from the 200-sma such as the one that occurred in May. The SPX has been oscillating around its 200-sma for several days, staying close enough that bulls could remain hopeful that it would not be soundly violated.

That SPX violation certainly changed the tenor of the markets. Since the OEX also fell soundly through the midline support of its descending regression channel, it also set up the possibility that it could fall to the bottom of that channel, a possibility that the SOX suggested could happen as early as last week, when it began its tumble through the bottom half of its descending regression channel. On the OEX, the bottom of that regression channel now lies at about 522.60.

Before the OEX could get there, however, it would have to make its perhaps laborious way down through the multiple support levels built up during May's congestion. While the SOX plunged right through May's levels, it had not consolidated so closely, rising fairly quickly throughout May. It didn't pause to do its work backing and filling, and the result was a quick plunge back below May's numbers without that thickened congestion zone to stop it. I'm not certain it will happen the same way with the OEX, but let's look at what the daily nested Keltner chart has to say: Link That chart has been demonstrating the strong resistance in the 544-547 region, which was the reason for my suggestion all this week that advances might be stopped in that region. Now the Keltner charts suggest the possibility that OEX declines could slow at 527-530, the levels by which the converging blue and black channel lines might be able to firm up and support the OEX. If the OEX should instead plunge through 529-530 too quickly to allow support to firm, a new possible downside of 505 or so is possible as long as the smallest Keltner channel remains turned lower.

Bears have a quandary, then. Those Keltner charts look as if the OEX is just going to slide down those descending Keltner lines right down to 504, and MACD is below signal and headed down, too, but if you look carefully at the early May period on that chart, you'll see the same setup. Yet, after a little sliding lower, the channel lines held and the OEX headed up again. There's just no way to know tonight whether the bounce or the slide will happen, but the possibility exists now that declines will slow. Those in bearish positions already should make plans to guard profits if the OEX continues its descent. If it does, those in bearish plays want to see a quick descent, not a small-range day or two that allows the daily Keltner support lines to converge and firm up under the OEX.

A shorter time frame, the 15-minute chart, shows the OEX approaching lower Keltner support, now at 532.63 but still descending. Those currently in bearish plays do not want to see the OEX maintain levels above 539, but preferably not above 537.01. On an even shorter time frame, the five-minute chart, a breakout is underway. On that chart, bears would prefer that the OEX not sustain levels above 535.36, but a sustained move above 536.50 would turn the smallest Keltner channel higher. Currently, resistance thins above that 536.50 level, so that a sustained move above that level might see the OEX bounce up to test the 539 level. We'll have to look at conditions tomorrow as they develop to see whether a higher level might be possible, but tonight, charts suggest that 538-539 will be difficult resistance for the OEX, and a possible place to watch for a rollover entry for a new bearish play, depending on conditions as that level is tested. If it is.

  Keene Little   7/21/200,  7:41:36 PM
Jeff, sorry, the "flaming torch" candlestick escapes me at the moment (your 18:24 post). Was that today's candlestick by any chance? ;-)

I did manage to catch the uptick last night, thanks. Only kidding--the nice thing about trading futures is that I don't have to wait for an uptick, so I waited until this morning.

  OI Technical Staff   7/21/200,  7:16:57 PM
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