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  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  7:02:43 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  5:42:19 PM
Yellow/Roadway (YELL) $41.56 +4.44% Link ... CNBC interview has CEO, William Zollars saying, "economy is humming." Adds that "oil prices not a factor."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  5:08:31 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

GE Day trade short from $32.64 carried over the weekend at bottom.

As an OSIP bear, I didn't like today's close above $56.70. Will monitor closely Monday, but these are out the money puts, and would be more aggressive to close out, if stock doesn't follow through to downside.

While OSIP not close to 52-week low, hints a bit that despite weakness, NASDAQ Comp new lows didn't build from Thursday's trade, despite a lower price move in the COMPX. May suggest some shorts covering on this weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  4:52:56 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:59:30 PM
Day trade hold over alert .... Will hold GE $32.61 -0.82% short over the weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:57:36 PM
The OEX will likely end today showing two candles in a row springing from the 527.92-528.48 Keltner support seen on the OEX's daily chart. That support hasn't turned up yet to cup the OEX's candles and indicate that it's going to hold, but there's that possibility that it will, particularly given the strong weekly support in this area. Where the OEX goes from here determines whether it heads back down to test that weekly support or not or just continues to climb. The daily chart suggests difficult getting much past 546, at least on the first test, but the OEX has surmounted that configuration of resistance at other times this year. The weekly chart suggests that a sustained move above 543.75 will stabilize the smallest channel and perhaps flatten it, but that's where first resistance shows up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:51:04 PM
QQQ's just cleared 34.26. 30 min channel resistance on the now-flat channel is at 34.40, with confluence resistance from 34.38 to .44. 60 min channel resistance, still declining, is at 34.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:50:37 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,089.15 .... is the stage set for rally mode on Monday?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:45:32 PM
QQQ hasn't spent this long above the 7200-tick SMA all day, but the break is anything but authoritative. The market's been amazingly weak today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:44:26 PM
Here we go, with the same OEX Keltner channel lines that have been stopping the OEX all day, stopping its advance again. Either I wasn't wearing my reading glasses just right earlier or QCharts has redrawn the OEX's five-minute candles, too, because that breakaway gap is gone now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:29:51 PM
QQQ at 34.25 is right at previous support of 34.26, and the 7200-tick SMA is right there as well- it's held back every bounce all day. Testing it here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:29:51 PM
The OEX gapped up during this last five-minute period as it broke above the descending trendline built since about 1:30. That's a breakaway gap and something bulls want to see. I don't know that I'd be playing an options play on such a supposedly bullish breakout this late on a Friday afternoon with even risk, though. I think I'd want the dust to settle Monday morning before I considered it. Of course, that guarantees that we'll see a move up to 536 before the close, doesn't it?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:27:49 PM
Jim nailed a great entry on that ER long. We're seeing the first decent prospect for a short cycle buy signal since 12:45PM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:18:00 PM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,084.78

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:16:45 PM
NQ and QQQ have just bounced from the May lows. Note that the high that followed the May lows was a higher high on the daily. The daily cycle oscillators have released their buy signals printed earlier this week, now on a bearish kiss with today's lower low and lower high for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:12:51 PM
200-day SMA alert ... U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.26 +0.91% (30-minute delayed). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:09:23 PM
03:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:08:02 PM
Equal low area for the OEX. It actually dipped a little below the equal low. Bulls and want-to-be bulls want to see the OEX steady here and begin to move up. Bears want to see the OEX go ahead and drop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:05:58 PM
Just had a 1084 alarm go off for the SPX. Now, how long have I had that set?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:05:33 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,083.94

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  3:04:41 PM
Here's a formation I'm watching on the OEX's five-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:04:33 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,084.37

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:02:59 PM
Session high for ZN bond futures here, up .23% for the day. So far, the Fed's big repo drain from this AM is uniquely impacting equities and precious metals.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  3:02:38 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6323.40 -1.07% .... session low and 19.1% retracement (conventional from March high to recent May lows).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:02:18 PM
Session lows in the futures here, QQQ breaking back to the lows of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  3:00:04 PM
The wavelet oscillator is ratcheting higher in a trending move off the low for QQQ. The action is so weak that it looks like an obvious bear wedge to me. Of course, it's obvious right at the weekly bottom, with the daily, 30 min and short cycle oscillators oversold, making these levels a perfect spot not to sell into. The market always seems to have an equally compelling technical counterargument. In any event, the outlook is bearish below previous support of 34.26, while bulls will want to wait for a break above 34.44 to confirm any short cycle strength that might develop from here. At this point, the 30 min cycle channel has resistance lined up at 34.45 as well.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:55:55 PM
I heard Michael Jackson denied any involvement in fathering of quadruplets Keene. Story at this Link

 
 
  Keene Little   7/23/200,  2:52:29 PM
Jeff, especially on the NDX, I'm seeing tweezers every day (re: your 14:36 post). This market doesn't know up from down anymore. It certainly can't make up its mind. Usually this kind of volatility is seen at market bottoms and tops so it gives me the impression it's hammering out a bottom. I think it's close and am disappointed it wasn't today, after that beautiful hammer doji on the charts yesterday. So give me a tweezer back up on Monday and we'll see if it's any more effective!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:49:45 PM
United Technology (UTX) $92.06 -0.58% Link ... Sikorsky unit awarded $2.4 billion contract to supply Canada with marine helicopters.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:37:49 PM
Careful, OEX bears. While today has been anything but bullish, the OEX just does not want to fall over the same cliff as some of the other indices. It keeps refusing to break through support, other than for brief piercings. If bears can't break it down, we could see shorts give up and begin to cover. Resistance groups overhead at 531.60 and then near 533. Support is at 530-530.20 and needs to be broken soundly if bears are to get their wish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:36:29 PM
Keene ... you might just get that "tweezer" bottom for the INDU today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:30:50 PM
QQQ is chipping at former double bottom support at 34.26. A break above it would target confluence at 34.38-.44.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:23:16 PM
The test of lower channel support held on the first try, and amazingly the bullish TRIX divergence still remains on the QQQ, though I have to squint to see what remains of it on the Macd. The short cycles are just trending at this point, as they've done every day this week, and the 30 min downphase is only beginning to approach oversold territory here- there's still room for more downside damage between now and the close on that key timeframe.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:20:42 PM
Brief piercing of the neckline, quick punch back above it on the OEX's five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:17:52 PM
02:15 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:16:34 PM
Once again, the OEX is trying to steady at the descending neckline of its potential three-right-shouldered H&S formation. Keltner support is trying to steady under it, too, but that support just keeps sliding lower while price does, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:14:03 PM
30 and 60 min channels remain in their downphases, with declining support down to 34.15 QQQ. 30 min channel resistance is 34.52, 60 min resistance 34.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:10:50 PM
QQQ $34.20 -1.92% .... gets bulk of the sell program.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:09:58 PM
General Electric (GE) $32.67 -0.63% .... unscathed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:08:47 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,086.38

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  2:07:40 PM
Nucor Corp. (NEU) $78.00 ... back to unchanged. Maytag (MYG) $19.04 -10.52% noted higher steel prices as hurting its quarterly results.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:07:20 PM
QQQ and NQ breaking to new lows for the week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  2:04:45 PM
OEX bulls want to see the OEX maintain values above 531.60 but hopefully above 532.06 to turn the smallest Keltner chart higher again. Bears want to see values below 531.60 but hopefully 531.19 to keep it turned lower. Bears most especialy want to see the 12:40 low violated, a sign that the H&S, now engaged in building its second or third right shoulder, is being confirmed. Then they want to see a move below yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  2:03:58 PM
Back to session lows for NQ futures and QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:59:07 PM
At this rate, the OEX won't have far to go to test mid-channel resistance, because that resistance has been coursing down toward the OEX since Wednesday. It's currently at 533.18. Looks as if the OEX is going to need a good jolt of caffeine to get it there, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:52:48 PM
Agree. A bounce from 1080 SPX would have reverse h&s implications, while a break below it would turn the weekly cycle decisively down.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  1:51:27 PM
Jonathan, that is an ugly chart and that 1080 level could be a serious drop off.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:50:38 PM
I agree with Jim re his 13:48- weekly chart of the SPX at this Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:43:23 PM
The OEX struggles with each minor Keltner resistance level along the way in its laborious climb. Currently, the OEX needs to maintain 531.33 to avoid turning its smallest Keltner channel lower again. So far, this action is fitting the scenario of the OEX kicking around a while near the support seen on its weekly Keltner channel roughly in the 529-532 range, with that range perhaps able to extend down to 525-527 to the downside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:37:42 PM
Those bullish divergences are still evident in the short cycle TRIX and MACD Link but the downtrend in price has yet to end, with a lower high just printed at 34.44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:36:00 PM
Reader Question: We have been moving thru bear country as of lately. VIX is low in relative terms, and probably should be spiking higher. Doesnt this tell you that bulls are being a bit complacent and that we could see further downwards movement? A.

Response: Great question. VIX is low, but far off its sub-14 levels from April and then early in July. There's been a great debate over the last year about how low is low on the VIX now. We've certainly moved away from when a drop to 20 was considered a sign of a market top. I've seen some charts lately correlating VIX and SPX action, noting that we're nearer a market top than a bottom. The problem is I was seeing similar charts at periodic intervals all last year, too, while the VIX continued to sink lower and lower and the markets to climb higher. I think we're still in the process of determining where low and high are for the VIX.

July's move below 14.00 (7/14, 7/15, and 7/21) and now this week's continual testing of the 200-dma do perhaps signal that a turn was made in the markets. The last time the VIX pushed above its 200-sma on a closing basis was in May. The SPX was already far into its decline off April's high by then, and it was probably the push below 14.00 on April 23rd that precipitated the decline. Perhaps sub-14 levels now mark our new value for the "when VIX is low, it's time to go" axiom? At any rate, I don't think bulls want to see a VIX close above its 200-dma today at 16.60, although April and May's evidence suggest that the SPX could again already be far into its decline if that close occurs. Our next question is, what's now "high" for the VIX? Is it 20? Or 22? We're probably in the process of finding out that value, too.

I forgot to add my standard warning, though, that it's difficult to use the VIX as a market-timing tool, although it would have been a great one on April 23 and July 21, wouldn't it? Use it as one indicator among the many you use.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:21:55 PM
Updated daily TNX chart here: Link . 4.5% remains key range resistance, as it has for the past two weeks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:19:01 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:18:55 PM
Keltner resistance is trying to firm near 532, but is stronger up at the 533.30 region. If the OEX can maintain levels over 532, then it will be pointing the smallest Keltner channel toward 533.33.

Bulls want to see the OEX maintain levels above 531.30 or at least not below 530.74.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:09:35 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  1:08:00 PM
Again, the OEX looks a little hesitant as it tries to rise high enough to turn its smallest Keltner channel higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  1:04:25 PM
QQQ $34.35 -1.49% .... edges off session low of $34.24 and WEEKLY S1 ($34.25).

SOX.X 409.79 -2.53% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  1:00:13 PM
I can't highlight it in the chart itself, but note the bullish divergence on the short cycle Macd (bottom pane) and TRIX (second to bottom pane). I'd want to see 34.50 cleared before getting too excited, however- a break of the low should erase them in short order. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:57:08 PM
If I were running the fabled 990N or a large tech fund, I'd be very concerned to see the current levels hold. A break to new lows for the week would leave a very ugly chart for bulls to study over the weekend. 30 min channel support is down to 34.20 QQQ, 60 min support still at 34.26.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:54:01 PM
HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $0.52 and set for selling at $-1.82.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  12:53:11 PM
CDWC announcing a buy back of 2.5 million shares

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:51:53 PM
The OEX broke through that neckline of the H&S and through to a new low of the day, but it's desperately trying to steady long enough to build a base beneath it and the latest decline looks a little bullish falling wedge-ish. If the OEX can maintain levels above 531.40, it has a chance of turning the smallest channel higher again, toward 533.53 resistance.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  12:50:28 PM
WLP has been halted for trading

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:57 PM
And for NQ at 1380 just printed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:44 PM
Session low for INTC here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  12:44:04 PM
The 30 min cycle is in a downphase that looks good until the close judging from its current shape. The 30 min channels are back down to 34.26 support, which is yesterday's low. The daily cycle ticked down to a bearish kiss on the 10-day stoch, telling what we already suspected- namely, that a close near the day and week's lows would abort the young daily cycle upphase that's been trying to get going since Tuesday. The short cycles are oversold from the past 2 hours' decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:42:58 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:30:44 PM
The OEX now turns its smallest Keltner channel toward 529.57, but it has not yet violated the 10:10 low from this morning, so I wouldn't consider that H&S fully confirmed yet. I'd be careful of assuming that it's going to achieve it's full 5.7-point downside target, also, because a drop is going to be through what appears to be strong support on the weekly chart. Play it carefully on the bearish side, if you're doing that. As I said yesterday, though, a drop to 525-527 wouldn't be too much of a downside stretch of that support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:27:19 PM
The OEX slides down its nearest Keltner support and also down the neckline of its possible H&S. Both are near 530.80 now. That neckline and that support have been pierced once today and it appears that the OEX is going to try it again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:26:48 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 409.73 -2.54% ... back to test morning lows.

ALTR $19.92 +0.91% , XLNX $30.16 -1.72%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  12:06:43 PM
The OEX appears to be struggling to stay above the level needed to keep the smallest channel at least flat, if not above the level needed to turn it higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  12:01:48 PM
For what it is worth.... I think dollar's strength comes ahead of Democrat's Nation Convention (July 26-29), where "shrinking the deficit" will be the headline topic and criticism of current administration.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:51:23 AM
The OEX is trying to steady long enough to allow that Keltner support to firm, just ahead of the confirmation level of a confirmation level of a possible H&S on the five-minute chart. That support is now just above 531. Keltner resistance remains fairly scattered above the OEX, so on that basis alone, it looks possible for the OEX to rise. It needs to rise above 532.21 and maintain levels above that to have hopes of retesting the mid-channel level at 534 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:49:35 AM
A historical perspective of Fed tightening when dollar was strengthening, and tie to SPX.X. Link

One could argue the dollar's strength (technical) was due to shrinking deficits (fundamental) as economy was growing (fundamental), or raising rates by Fed(fundamental).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:48:45 AM
Gold's behaving as one would expect with the USD Index strong- it failed to regain 392 and printed a low of 387.20, just below 388 before rebounding to the current 389.70. HUI is down 2.51% at 180.64 here, XAU -2.03 at 84.74./ Silver's down to 6.28, while bonds are holding their gains with TNX down 1.6 bps at 4.446%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:41:12 AM
OEX support is trying to firm beneath the current OEX position, but it's again going to need the cooperation of the OEX. The OEX needs to steady here or preferably move above 531.73 or, better yet, above 532.33 to turn the smallest OEX channel higher again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:38:51 AM
200-Day SMA alert .... AIG $68.47 +1.84% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:26:35 AM
Jonathan has been mentioning a H&S formation, and there's one on the OEX's five-minute chart, too. It's a continuation-form one, and I sometimes don't fully trust those, but the neckline would be somewhere around 531, although I'd wait for a drop below the 10:10 low before I considered it fully confirmed. It's going to be an iffy situation to consider a bearish play based on this, however, as the OEX is so near possible weekly support. If you're already in a bearish play, you're glad to see it developing and hope it confirms. If it doesn't, and is rejected, however, that won't gladden bearish hearts because such rejections often result in a big rebound.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:23:57 AM
I'd like your comments on the $usd (either here or in the MM). Due to the 'measured pace' or 'increased pace' of rate hikes, I am assuming that is why the USD is seeing some strength here. Where do you see the $usd weakening again given all of the fundamental factors? Many thanks, MP

There's old resistance at 89.4, then at 90, 90.5 and 91. If this week's move is a bull wedge breakout, then the implied target is the year high at 92.7 (basis Sept DX '04 future). A rise in interest rates would be as potentially bullish for the dollar as it would be potentially bearish for other assets, including equities, metals, commodities, real estate, etc. But I've learned to stick to the charts and the indicators- fundamentals are good for putting moves in perspective, but trading's all about timeframe, and fundamentals have always been very difficult to time. Link Right now, a strong daily cycle upphase is in progress. 90-90.5 DX looks like the key resistance zone from here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:21:22 AM
Nearby Keltner support if trying to firm up down to 531.25 on the OEX. If the OEX breaks through this other than a brief piercing, it turns the smallest channel down toward lower support, now at 529.77.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:16:41 AM
Amazing lack of strength at what should have been daily cycle support. That support is still intact, but a close near or below these levels at the low of the week would be quite bearish for next week. That daily cycle upturn needs price to cooperate, or else it will reverse lower and start the oscillators trending in oversold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  11:12:49 AM
11:08 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:09:19 AM
34.44 is a fib level and the beginning of confluence support to 34.38. A break below that should see a quick move to yesterday's lows as the short cycle uptick lets go from a much lower price and oscillator high. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  11:07:14 AM
The OEX is essentially turning down below the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Although it moved momentarily above it, it left only candle shadows above that level. However, as long as the OEX maintains values above 532.61 except for brief piercings, it should keep its smallest channel pointed higher. It's dropping below that now, however. Bulls want to see it find support at 531.60-531.78 and begin climbing again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  11:05:01 AM
QQQ bulls have a pattern of higher wavelet lows and an uptick in the 30 min cycle channel- but this hesitant chop is looking corrective, and the 34.75 and 34.95 levels are significant resistance levels. It will take more than this chop to put a bullish bias on today's action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:56:39 AM
The OEX is testing next Keltner resistance at 533.22-533.43. Bulls want to see the OEX break above that and the 50% retracement of the decline at 533.70. Doing so will keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed higher, toward 534.46 (the mid-channel level) and then 535.43, the channel line that usually stops it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:55:57 AM
A break of 34.75 QQQ would be the first step toward undoing this head and shoulders formation, but it will take a break above 34.95-35.00 to invalidate it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:52:39 AM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 118.30 +0.11% .... edges green. JEF +1.26%, RJF +1.27%, MWD +0.59% .... ET -0.09%, SCH -0.22%, AMTD -0.93%.

Yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright and Associates' Wall Street Bullish % (BPWALL) reverse back lower to "bear confirmed" at 36%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  10:44:01 AM
ALERT - FBI saying they have a report of a domestic terror group planning an attack against the convention

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:43:42 AM
The 30 min channel is flattening from its downphase, with channel support now at yesterday's QQQ low of 34.26. Resistance remains 34.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:41:51 AM
Time to look at some retracement values snapped on the OEX's decline from yesterday's high. A 38.2% retracement lies at 532.93 and a 50% one lies at 533.70. A 61.8% retracement lies at 534.47, near central channel resistance. All are possible resistance levels.

Bulls want to see the OEX above the 50% level and hopefully the 61.8%, which begins to suggest a full retracement of the move. Bears want to see the OEX roll down again at the 38.2% level or at least by the 50% level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:36:21 AM
The QQQ chart posted a few minutes ago shows a head and shoulders formation developing. J.M. Hurst has explained that the head and shoulders pattern is formed by the interplay of nested cycle channels, whereby a longer cycle (here the 30 min cycle) makes a top and rolls over, while the short cycle nested within it ping-pongs off the top and bottom of it. Focusing on the channels in that chart, there's a great illustration of that theory. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:35:41 AM
Yesterday, the 15-minute 100/130-ema's played an important part in the OEX's behavior. The OEX hit the 100-ema and then was rebuffed, falling straight from that average. Today, that average lies at 536.33, with the 130-ema at 536.97. We already knew the 536-537 zone served as historical S/R, and now there's extra reason to pay attention to this zone if the OEX should approach it today. If so, bulls should have a plan in place as to how they'll handle a test of those averages.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:30:22 AM
If the OEX should bounce again, the MACD is not showing me any bullish price/MACD divergence on the five- or fifteen-minute charts as compared to yesterday's low, which should keep any dip buyers on watch for the possibility that any bounce could be a countertrend one. The OEX needs to hold above 531.36 on a sustained basis to allow that support underneath to continue firming.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:29:29 AM
This bounce has kicked off the first steps of a short cycle upphase on QQQ, but selling volume is rising here below the upper descending channel markers at 34.75. Look for a higher low on the pullback for confirmation of a short cycle upphase. There's a small wavelet downphase trying to start here within the short cycle upturn.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:27:59 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 416.03 -1.04% .... session low was 409.45. Will show SOX.X chart mentioned in last night's Index Wrap, but that 50% retracement seems to be the current level of support in play.

After lower open of $30.09 ... XLNX $30.88 +0.71% has gotten a bounce.

XLNX chief competitor ALTR $20.29 +2.83% ....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:24:37 AM
Bears should be aware that it's possible that the OEX is finding its footing again, with support trying to firm beneath it. Resistance levels have thinned out, allowing for a bounce, but not promising it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:24:24 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Day trade in GE $32.73 -0.45% ... not listed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:21:49 AM
QQQ has 30/60 min cycle resistance at 34.75: Link.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:20:46 AM
Turning to the 15-minute Keltner charts, I see OEX support trying to firm between 531.07-531.48, but it needs the cooperation of the OEX before it can firm. It needs the OEX to steady here or even bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:16:56 AM
The OEX came within a few cents of reaching that 530.43 target that had been predicted by the Keltner channels. Now it's bouncing up to test resistance. The first resistance is near the current level, up to 531.84. Resistance lines are scattered widely above it since it fell so quickly. If it bounces just as quickly, it can move through some of these, but if it steadies instead, they'll converge overhead. The OEX needs to maintain levels above 532.34 to stop the downward cant of its smallest Keltner channel and above 533.27 to turn it higher again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:14:41 AM
10:05 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:13:24 AM
The BIX opened near the 30-dma that had supported it for seven days and on which it closed yesterday, and is again falling beneath that average as it did yesterday. The stochastics are fully bearish after having signaled bearish divergence when the BIX broke out to new relative highs recently. Yesterday and on many several other occasions over the last month, the BIX has found support at its 72-ema, now at 345.26, converging with the 50-dma, now at 345.58. If it should drop that far, watch for a possible bounce again or for a fall through those converging averages and then through the 100-sma at 344.22 as a sign that the BIX is attempting to break through the bottom support of its recent consolidation pattern. That would look more bearish for the general markets.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:12:17 AM
The 60 min cycle channels are joining the 30 min channels in rolling over. Yesterday's lows are next in the crosshairs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:06:40 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,974.68 -0.75% .... within 10-points of DAILY S1.

Thinking much below 9,963 could see 9,900, thus bearish day trader thoughts on GE.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  10:06:02 AM
The OEX came up to test the Keltner channel that it just violated this morning. So far, the Keltner lines are converging above the current OEX position, not under it. They're forming at resistance rather than support. That first resistance is at 531.98 now, and the OEX does look to be pointed toward 530.43. It needs to get above that first resistance to even begin to halt the decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:02:13 AM
Session high for ten year bonds despite the repo drain- TNX down 1.6 bps to 4.446%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  10:01:11 AM
Day trade short alert .... General Electric (GE) $32.64 here, stop $32.90, target $32.01.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:01:06 AM
QQQ at 34.45 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  10:00:33 AM
Session lows across the board here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:57:19 AM
Net drain of 7B from the Fed- that's a big drain, and I read it as reinforcing Moskow's comments this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:53:08 AM
The OEX is breaking through the 532.31 support on the Keltner chart. Unless it can steady or bounce quickly, it's now setting up a possible downside target of 530.51, with a move through that target (dynamic, so changing as the OEX moves) setting up a downside breakout situation on the five-minute chart.

A steadying or quick bounce will suggest that it didn't really break through that support because it will allow the Keltner lines to snake under it again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:51:13 AM
Awaiting the 10AM fed announcement regarding the disposition of the expiring 8.75B overnight repo.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:51:12 AM
The OEX again approaches mid-channel support on the weekly chart. That support extends down to 528.34, but could be bulged downward a little more without truly breaking the support, depending on whether it bounced back quickly or not. The bottom of the QCharts-drawn regression channel is all the way down at 523 or so. I'm not suggesting that the OEX will drop that far, but only looking at possible vulnerabilities. As I type, the OEX is trying to steady and turn up to face overhead resistance. In Keltner form, that's now at 534.25 and again at 534.89-535.00. The OEX needs to maintain levels above that first number to stop the downward tilt of its smallest channel and needs to be above the second zone to turn that channel higher again, toward 536.30 next resistance. Bears should again be guarding their profits as the OEX moves into that weekly support zone again.

Remember that it's possible that the OEX will spend a couple of weeks or more near the converging support on its weekly Keltner chart, consolidating recent losses before it decides what direction to take on a weekly basis. As I mentioned in my 21:44 report on the OEX, "near" can have a different direction when we're talking about the weekly chart, though, and the OEX could easily move around in a 10-15-point range and still look near that support on the weekly chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:49:59 AM
Gold is up to 391.90 after the earlier drop, but the miners are getting whacked again, with HUI down 1.93% to 181.71, XAU -1.68% to 85.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:48:50 AM
The TRINQ is respectably high at 2.54. The question is whether it's high enough to signal a selling climax - we've seen much higher readings than this in the past. This is something I'll be keeping my eye on more closely.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:40:48 AM
Still pointed toward 532.58, the OEX now will face converging resistance at 534.80-535.10 and again at 536-536.50 when if it tries to rise. The OEX would need to maintain levels above that first zone to halt the descent of its smallest channel, while it would need to get above 539.50 to turn it higher again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:39:10 AM
The absence of a bounce has the 30 minute cycle channels rolling over for QQQ and the indices, while the longer 60 min channel remains flat with support in play now. A break of current support should find buyers at 34.45, followed by 34.38 and 34.25 QQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:36:04 AM
During the first five minutes of trading, the OEX spanned a range from 534.28 to 533.54.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  9:35:50 AM
200-day SMA alert ... Verizon (VZ) $35.65 +3.29% Link ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:33:52 AM
30 min channel support is being broken here on all equity indices. 60 min support is at 34.51 QQQ, 9960 for the Dow futures, currently being tested for ES and NQ. I expect the decline to at least slow as channel support is tested.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  9:31:53 AM
The OEX drops in early trading, keeping the smallest channel on the five-minute nested Keltner chart pointed down, toward 532.70. The OEX needs to rise above 535.31, maintaining those values, and then above 536.37 to turn that channel higher again, toward 539.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/23/200,  9:27:19 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

Should HL Camp update today's buy/sell program levels, I will post them in the MM.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:20:50 AM
Jim, here's what's coming off the wire:

9:18am FED'S MOSKOW: MEASURED PACE WITH RATE HIKES LIKELY

9:19am MOSKOW: FED READY TO STEP UP RATE-HIKE PACE IF NEEDED

9:20am MOSKOW: FED NOT SURE WHAT NEUTRAL RATE TARGET IS

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/23/200,  9:17:25 AM
Fed Moskow saying that low interest rates are no longer appropriate and the June rate hike was only the first step in returning to a neutral policy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  9:15:55 AM
Looking at the NQ futures as a proxy for the QQQ, the 30 minute cycle is trying to roll over early from its upphase, with the daily remains in the early stages of an uppase- actually confirmed by the higher low put in so far in this admittedly young daily candle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:38:45 AM
Gold has lost 392 support, bouncing here from a low of 390. Dow futures also cracked 10000 but bounced from 9993, currently back to 10008.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:11:40 AM
There are no major economic reports due this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/23/200,  8:09:32 AM
Equities are down today, ES -2 to 1091.75, NQ -10 to 1395, and YM -12 to 10004, with QQQ -.21 to 34.66. Gold is down 2.50 to 392.90, silver -.101 to 6.334 and ten year bonds +.03 to 110.5312.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/23/200,  7:04:00 AM
Good morning. Early Friday morning, Japan's May Tertiary Industry Index was released. It had been rumored that the index might show a worse-than-expected result, a particularly troublesome development when the new GDP estimate was just raised this week. The rumors were right, with the index down 1.0% month-over-month against an expectation of a 0.1% rise. The all-industries figure also fell, by 0.7% month-over-month, against an expectation of a rise.

The Nikkei opened just above 11,250, and then tumbled below 11,200 in the morning session. It closed under that level, too, at 11,187.33, down 97.71 points or 0.87%. Issues related to domestic demand dropped as a result of the downside surprise in the tertiary index. With crude prices rising, exporters fell. Canon and Honda were among the exporters dropping in early trading, with Canon closing 1.5% lower despite the CEO's reported statement that H1 earnings will beat its forecast. Tech stocks were weak, a fallout from MSFT and AMZN earnings last night. Tokyo Electron declined 2.1%. One stock performing well was the troubled trading house, Sojitz Holdings. The stock climbed 6% during trading, and after the close reported that several banks will infuse it with capital.

Other Asian bourses were mixed, but mostly lower, with semi-related stocks weak throughout Asia. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.26%. In South Korea, the LGPhillips LCD joint venture, a joint venture between Philips Electronics and South Korea's LG Electronics, debuted and had disappointing results, with the debut price being below the initial IPO price and with shares dropping 5.1%. South Korea's Kospi was down 0.69%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.68%, with Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing dropping 6% after reporting increased demand that helped it see profit for the second quarter, but trimming its sales forecast for the current quarter. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.27%, one of the few bourses gaining in Asia. CFSB raised estimates for some of China's oil producers, also increasing estimates for H2 oil prices. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, down only 0.042 points or 0.00%.

European bourses mostly trade higher as many techs make slight gains. In addition, Volkswagen's anticipated trimming of forecasts turned out to trim them less than anticipated, and DaimlerChrysler reached a labor agreement. Both were rising in early trading. One company not joining in the European gains is Philips Electronics, easing slightly due to the poor showing of its joint venture IPO with LG Electronics. In the U.K., drug stocks and banks were gaining, with drugmaker AstraZeneca (AZN) beating Q2 earnings forecast. At least two analysts reiterated their overweight or outperform ratings on the company.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 26.60 points or 0.62%, to 4,332.90. The CAC 40 is up only 1.24 points or 0.03%, to 3,574.08. The DAX has climbed 6.15 points or 0.16%, to 3,807.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/22/200,  9:44:45 PM
Thursday, the OEX dipped down to the 530-533 level that the weekly Keltner charts had suggested might be seen, but had also suggested might hold as support. Now what? A look back at the weekly chart shows that the OEX usually lingers near this particular configuration of support lines for two or more weeks after touching it, but "lingers near" can have a different definition when you're looking at a weekly chart than when you're looking at a five-minute one. That lingering might span a 12-15-point range, certainly a tradable range. Will it? That doesn't seem the likeliest event tomorrow, although chart configurations could change as the day progresses.

That same weekly chart shows that bulls want to see the OEX sustain values above 544.05 on a weekly basis in order to begin turning the smallest daily channel up toward next weekly resistance, at 559.58. They suggest that a sustained fall below 530.98 on a weekly basis would turn that smallest Keltner channel lower, toward next support, at 499.16. However, there's a caveat. Those Keltner lines can be bulged outward a little without their resistance or support actually being violated, and "a little" might have a different interpretation on a weekly chart than on a daily or intraday one. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an intra-week move down to 525-527, and, depending on the setup and how the week ended, not have that Keltner support violated. I'm not suggesting that the slide down to that level will necessarily occur, but only that it could, and that the weekly support could be considered as having held.

The daily Keltner chart shows the OEX still in danger of sliding down toward 504, and it may require several days of consolidation or slow sliding a little lower before we know whether the just-approached daily Keltner lines near 529-530 will hold, as they've held every time the OEX has pulled back since the first of the year. The OEX needs to steady above 527-529 long enough for the Keltner lines to flatten and snake under them, or else the OEX needs to bounce quickly and leave them behind. If that bounce should happen, that daily chart suggests that on that initial swing up, at least, likely upside will be capped somewhere between 545-547.50 and possibly even near 538.50-539.

The daily MACD is still bearish. Market participants are still skittish. Buyers finally stepped in today--brave buyers--and they drove the OEX up to the first expected strong resistance level but couldn't move it higher. We could have consolidation in a ten- or fifteen-point range over two or three weeks, all a part of the process of reversing the markets or of building a "b" distribution pattern in preparation for another fall. Either way, once the OEX breaks out, we're looking at another opportunity for a good directional play. In the meantime, we may be in for some range-bound trading again, so let's look at what the intraday charts show as possible trading ranges for tomorrow.

The OEX is below the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but with the smaller channel still pointed higher. It's above the mid-channel level on the five-minute chart, but with the smallest channel flattening. Mixed evidence, and that's no surprise when bulls and bears are both trying to figure out what happens next. The five-minute chart suggests that in earliest trading tomorrow morning, the OEX needs to get back above 535.65 and hopefully above 536.42 to turn the smallest channel higher again, toward 539.40. If the OEX should instead fall and maintain levels below 534.60 or so, it's going to turn the smallest channel lower again, toward 532.80, and back toward 531 if that level doesn't hold.

The move from 535.50 to 538-539 is not a big one, but perhaps a tradable one. That's going to be a trade fraught with lots of danger ahead of the weekend event danger, when some might decide to bail ahead of the weekend. The move down from 535.50 to 529-532 is also not a big one, but also possibly a tradable one. It's also fraught with danger as markets are so near strong weekly support and bulls know where at least short-term support was found. I'll be following the OEX's movement tomorrow, updating these if/then statements regarding the OEX's movements. Be careful.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  9:25:22 PM
NYSE NH/NL Chart with "f"ive day (using conventional 3-box reversal) at this Link

NASDAQ NH/NL Chart with "f"ive day at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/22/200,  8:41:13 PM
Overstock.com (OSTK) $33.62 Link .... $35.45 was last tick in after-hours.

Reported Q2 net loss of $2.3 million, or $0.13 per share, which was narrower than consensus estimates for loss of $0.17. OSTK said revenues surged 204% to $87.8 million from year-ago quarter's $28.8 million. Analysts expected quarterly revenues of $78 million.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   7/22/200,  8:11:05 PM
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